Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System

 
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
RIWIS
Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System             BulwienGesa AG
                                                                   research • analysis • consulting

                             Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG

                                                                                                      © Björn Giesenbauer - Flickr
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
Daten und Dienstleistungen für die Immobilienwirtschaft

       bulwiengesa AG – about us

                                                                                                                       © Mario Mantel - Flickr
 Independent Analysis, Valuations, Consulting               Market Competence

n Consultancy, Research and Analysis for more than 30      n Main Focus on office, retail, logistics and residential
  years, with many long-time employees                       markets
n approx. 80 members of staff in                           n Comprehensive competence within the hotel and
n 4 offices: Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich           leisure related sub-markets
n Interdisciplinary team – competent, quick yet quality-   n Broad experience concerning special purpose
  conscious services                                         properties (nursing homes, airports, etc.)

n provides all from data to in-depth studies               n leading in Germany, strong pan-European partner
                                                             network
n Independent from the very beginning – all shares
  owned by the management                                  n own valuation subsidiary:
                                                               bulwiengesa appraisal GmbH
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
bulwiengesa AG – Market Competence

                                                                                                                                    © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                Strategies, Studies, Forecasts, Indices,
                            Scoring, Rating
                          Top Down Analysis
                                                                         Combine and Complement

                                                                             n Data Collection, Research and Analysis of Property
                                                                               Market Data
                                                                             n Compliance and Confidentiality Agreements are
                              Experts &
                                                                               respected > Data can be used to refine models
                               Market
                            Competence                                       n Verification and Validation of Data
                            RIWIS online                                     n Plausibility and Relevance Checks

                                                                             n Standard Consulting Products
                         Bottom Up Research                                  n Individual and Bespoke Products, Data Services or
Feasibility Studies, Market and Location Studies, Property Appraisals,
                                                                               Reports and Studies
                      Surveys, Municipal Studies
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
bulwiengesa AG – Products & Services

                                                                                   © Jamie McHale - Flickr
Competence in all Market Sectors

n Portfolio Structuring & Strategic Consulting     n Use-Concepts
n Property and Portfolio Valuation                 n Investment Strategies
                                                   n Research and Analysis
n Municipal Studies, Concepts, Regional Planning   n Market Forecasts and Trends
n Business Modelling                               n Property Market Data
n Market- and Location Studies
n Feasibility Studies                              n RIWIS
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
RIWIS...

                                                                                                           Reporting

                                                                                                                                             © Frank Friedrichs - Flickr
                                                                                                                        Volatility Models

n ... is a granular and regional Information System
  for real estate markets and its socio-economic
                                                                                    RIWIS
  fabric                                               Market
                                                                                    supports                               Risk-Management
                                                      Research                                                                Controlling
n … offers a broad spectrum of data and increases
  the transparency of the property market
n … supports investment, location or strategic
  decisions                                                 Strategy,
                                                                                                                      Expansion &
                                                            Design &
                                                                                                                   Competition Analysis
n … shows Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities              Revision
  and Threats of cycles, markets, locations,
  properties …
                                                                        Location                 Portfolio Strategies
n … enables knowledge building                                          Decisions                  & Structurings
                                                                                    Invetment
n … facilitates well-grounded communication with                                     Decisions
  clients, investors, partners and colleagues
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
Daten und Dienstleistungen für die Immobilienwirtschaft

       RIWIS / Scope of Data

                                                                                                                                                        © cfaobam - Flickr
n RIWIS covers relevant property market sectors with a broad scope of robust data
                                                                                                                            Residential
n nation-wide coverage for residential sector , focus on 125 markets for commercial markets                R            Retail
                                                                                                        CTO          Office
n multi-dimensioned, multi-focused, multi-layered                                                     SE          Logistics/Industrial

                                                                                                                                              E
                                                                                                                                           TIM
                                                                                                           …
    – sector, sub-markets, details                                                                                                        historic
                                                                                                                                          development
    – time-series                                                                             SPACE                                       current
                                                                                                                                          situation
    – regional & granular scale                                                                Site                                       future
                                                                                               Building Block                             perspective
    – several data sources                                                                     Borough
                                                                                               City, Town
                                                                                               District (Kreis)
                                                                                               Region
n one fits all: for analysis, forecast, valuation
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
RIWIS: efficient– systematic – comprehensible

                                                                                                                                                                                   © Alex Eflon - Flickr
                                                                                                regular interviews
                                                                                                   with >1,000
                                                                                                   local Experts

                                                   Market                                           property specific
                                                                                                                        n since 1990 bulwiengesa collects, compiles, vaildates
                                                                                                                          and publishes property market data
   Land Registry                                                                                      track record
(Gutachterausschuss)                                Data                                              investment
                                                                                                       & lettings
                                                                                                                        n numerous data sources and methods are included in
                                                                                                                          this process and the processing and validation is
                                                                                                                          undertaken by long-time employees with plenty of
                                                                                                                          expertise and local market knowledge
                                                                                             surveys, studies,
         Market Reports                                                                     appraisals, advice &        n the review of asking prices and comparison to actual
        (various sources)                                                                   consultancy work by           transaction data enables plausibility checks and
                                                                                               bulwiengesa                identification of trends on both sides
                                                                                                                        n this concept provides reliable and consistent time
                                                                             primary
                                                                                                                          series which are used by a big number of clients, e.g.
                                Asking Prices                           market research &
                            (online marketplace)                         data collection
                                                                                                                          the Deutsche Bundesbank for providing data to ECB
                                                   secondary market                                                       BIS, OECD, IMF
                                                    data & national      by bulwiengesa
                                                    statistics office
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
Daten und Dienstleistungen für die Immobilienwirtschaft

       RIWIS – Selected Clients

                                                          © Sergio Morales - Flickr
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
RIWIS / Research and Validation

            Market Observation, Monitoring,
                                                                                                      Market Reports and Data
            Surveys, Research, Test Purchases,
                                                                                                       from Agents/Brokers
             Writing of Appraisals & Studies                                                          e. g. IVD, LBS, Lührmann, Colliers etc.

             Residential, Office, Retail, Logistics, Hotel, et.al.

     Property Data                                                                                      Transaction Based Data
                                                        Mass Data                                    e.g. Gutachterausschüsse (Land Registry)
     Prices, Rents                                 (Asking Rents & Prices)
    >30,000 Letting Deals                            approx. 4-6 Million
   > 8,000 Investment Deals                          Property Offers p.a.

                                                                                                 Own Data Survey, Continuous
           Aggregation to Submarket, City and                                               Contact to Local Experts, Interview Panel
                  Regional Level Data

                                           bulwiengesa Expertise and Knowledge on Markets and Regions

                                                              Market Data published by bulwiengesa
Data and Services by bulwiengesa AG - RIWIS Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System
RIWIS / Research and Validation

               Data Research
      Own Studies                                             Interpretation                Appraisals, Studies
                       Secondary Sources &                      Analysis                      Marketreports,
      and Surveys
                      Published Information                    Description                     Evaluations

              Definition, Validation,
                    Consistency

                     Database

             Time Series Analyses                                    Expectations on Property Markets
         Market Structure, Background,                                   Decisions and Strategies
             Trends and Changes                                        Relevance of Market Players

                                         Scoring, Rating, Forecast

                           Local, Regional, and Nation-Wide Property Market Data
RIWIS / Modules

                                                                    © Micha_hb - Flickr
MARKET DATA                PROPERTY DATA
n RIWIS Basis              n RIWIS Comparables
n RIWIS Quarterly Trends   n RIWIS Pipeline
n RIWIS Regional
n RIWIS Sub-Market         n RIWIS Shopping-Center & Retail Parks

n RIWIS Scoring            REPORTS
n RIWIS Forecasts          n RIWIS Select
n RIWIS GPI
RIWIS Basis

                                                                    © Jamie McHale - Flickr
n Market and Planning Data Indicators for
    – office
    – retail
    – logistics / industrial
    – residential sectors
    are complemented by national statistics which describe demand
    and supply structures
n Data Definitions and Methodologies are provided

n for 125 cities time-series from 1990
n for 49 West-German cities and 9 indicators data from 1975
Daten und Dienstleistungen für die Immobilienwirtschaft

       RIWIS Scoring

                                                                          © Alex Eflon - Flickr
n Benchmarking each of the 125 cities using a bottom-up market analysis

n based on selected indicators which describe strengths and weaknesses

n three sectors
  office, retail, residential

n three temporal perspectives
  – historic development
  – current situation
  – future perspective

n six result categories (1a, 1b, 2a, 2b, 3, 4)
RIWIS GPI

                                                                                            © Alex Eflon - Flickr
n The German Property Index (GPI) is a Property-Market-Performance-Index for 125
  cities by bulwiengesa
n providing historical and forecasted data with regard to

    –    Total Return
    –    Cash Flow
    –    Capital Growth

    for each of the125 RIWIS cities and for the office, retail, logistics and residential
    markets

n Following a market approach the GPI differs from other indices which are based on
  transaction based data of selected portfolios.
RIWIS Forecast // RIWIS Pipeline
       for Office, Retail and Residential Markets

                                                                                                                                                                      © Christian Rubarth - Flickr
FORECAST                                                                             n deduction from individual properties to local markets to more general trends
n market forecast for the next 5 years, to be as close as possible                   n volumes, cycles, structures, vacancies, rents, yields
n econometric and statistical methods and techniques                                 n one hard fact on future supply side
n based on our market data and knowledge, with additional forecasts of socio-
  economic figures of approved sources
n 21 office markets, 30 retail markets and 125 residential markets

PIPELINE
n detailed monitoring of properties in draft, in planning, under construction,
  recently completed
n realistic and reliable figures to pin-point volumes and time of available spaces
RIWIS Sub-Market// RIWIS Quarterly Data

                                                                                                                    © Sergio Morales - Flickr
SUB-MARKET                                                              QUARTERLY DATA
n for 7 A-Markets, approx. 10-30 sub-markets each                       n for 7 A-Markets
n functional sub-market definition for office and residential sectors   n key market figures on a quarterly basis
n most data from 2000                                                   n national trends on a quarterly basis
                                                                            – GDP
                                                                            – Consumer Indices

                                                                            – Real-Estate-Climate
RIWIS regional

                                                                               © Michael Molthagen - Flickr
n regional market information for all German Kreise and additional 350 towns

n Residential Market data from 2004
  – Rents, Purchasing Prices
  – Multiplier
  – socio-economic structures

n Office Market data from 2007
  – rents
  – indication on market volumes and activities
Daten und Dienstleistungen für die Immobilienwirtschaft

       RIWIS Cities – Basis

                                                                                                                                                                                      © Sergio Morales - Flickr
                                                          A-Markets          C-Markets             D-Markets
                                                          Berlin             Aachen                Albstadt              Görlitz            Lüdenscheid      Salzgitter
                                                          Düsseldorf         Augsburg              Aschaffenburg         Göttingen          Ludwigshafen     Schwerin
                                                          Frankfurt (Main)   Bielefeld             Bamberg               Greifswald         Lüneburg         Siegen
                                                          Hamburg            Braunschweig          Bergisch Gladbach     Gütersloh          Marburg          Solingen
                                                          Köln (Cologne)     Darmstadt             Bottrop               Hagen              Minden           Stralsund
                                                          München (Munich)   Erfurt                Brandenburg (Havel)   Halberstadt        Moers            Suhl
                                                          Stuttgart          Erlangen              Bremerhaven           Halle (Saale)      Neubrandenburg   Trier
                                                                             Freiburg (Breisgau)   Chemnitz              Hamm               Neumünster       Tübingen
                                                          B-Markets
                                                          Bochum             Heidelberg            Coburg                Hanau              Neuss            Ulm
                                                          Bonn               Kiel                  Cottbus               Heilbronn          Oberhausen       Villingen-Schwenningen
                                                          Bremen             Lübeck                Dessau                Herne              Offenburg        Weimar
                                                          Dortmund           Magdeburg             Detmold               Hildesheim         Oldenburg        Wilhelmshaven
                                                          Dresden            Mainz                 Düren                 Ingolstadt         Paderborn        Witten
                                                          Duisburg           Mönchengladbach       Eisenach              Jena               Passau           Wolfsburg
                                                                             Mülheim (Ruhr)        Flensburg             Kaiserslautern     Pforzheim        Würzburg
                                                          Essen
                                                                             Offenbach (Main)      Frankfurt (Oder)      Kassel             Plauen           Zwickau
                                                          Hannover
                                                                             Osnabrück             Friedrichshafen       Kempten (Allgäu)   Ratingen
                                                          Karlsruhe
                                                          Leipzig            Potsdam               Fulda                 Koblenz            Ravensburg
                                                                             Regensburg            Fürth                 Konstanz           Recklinghausen
                                                          Mannheim
                                                                             Rostock               Gelsenkirchen         Krefeld            Remscheid
                                                          Münster
                                                                             Saarbrücken           Gera                  Landshut           Reutlingen
                                                          Nürnberg
                                                          Wiesbaden          Wuppertal             Gießen                Leverkusen         Rosenheim
Daten und Dienstleistungen für die Immobilienwirtschaft

            RIWIS Cities – Regional

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   © Sergio Morales - Flickr
                                                                        Dingolfing              Friedberg                 Hildburghausen        Landau (Pfalz)           Miltenberg                  Parchim                  Sankt Wendel                 Taunusstein              Wernigerode
                                                                        Dinkelsbühl             Ganderkesee               Hilden                Landsberg am Lech        Mindelheim                  Pasewalk                 Saulgau                      Teltow                   Wertheim
                                                                        Dinslaken               Garbsen                   Hirschaid             Landstuhl                Montabaur                   Pegnitz                  Schifferstadt                Teutschenthal            Wesel
                                                                        Döbeln                  Garmisch-Partenkirchen    Hof                   Langenfeld (Rheinland)   Mosbach                     Peine                    Schleswig                    Tirschenreuth            Wetzlar
                                                                        Dormagen                Geesthacht                Hofheim am Taunus     Langenhagen              Mühlacker                   Pfaffenhofen (Ilm)       Schönebeck (Elbe)            Torgau                   Willich
                                                                        Dorsten                 Germering                 Holzkirchen           Lauf an der Pegnitz      Mühlhausen (Thüringen)      Pirmasens                Schönenberg-Kübelberg        Traunstein               Wismar
                                                                        Dülmen                  Germersheim               Holzminden            Leer (Ostfriesland)      Müllheim                    Pirna                    Schwabach                    Troisdorf                Wittenberg
                                                                        Eberswalde              Gifhorn                   Homburg               Lennestadt               Münchberg                   Pößneck                  Schwäbisch Gmünd             Tuttlingen               Wittenberge
                                                                        Eggenfelden             Gladbeck                  Horb am Neckar        Lichtenfels              Naumburg (Saale)            Preetz                   Schwäbisch Hall              Uelzen                   Wittlich
• Basis Module City                                                     Ehingen (Donau)         Göppingen                 Höxter                Limbach-Oberfrohna       Neckarsulm                  Pulheim                  Schwalmstadt                 Unna                     Wittmund
                                                                        Eichstätt               Goslar                    Hoyerswerda           Limburg an der Lahn      Neu-Ulm                     Quedlinburg              Schwandorf                   Unterschleißheim         Wolfen
• Regional Module City                                                  Eisenberg               Gotha                     Hürth                 Lindau (Bodensee)        Neuburg an der Donau        Radeberg                 Schwarzenberg (Erzgebirge)   Varel                    Wolfenbüttel
Aalen                      Bad Kissingen            Bitburg             Eisenberg (Pfalz)       Greiz                     Husum                 Lingen (Ems)             Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz   Radebeul                 Schwedt (Oder)               Vaterstetten             Worms
Achim                      Bad Kreuznach            Bocholt             Eisenhüttenstadt        Grevenbroich              Ibbenbüren            Lippstadt                Neunkirchen                 Rastatt                  Schweinfurt                  Vechta                   Zerbst
Ahlen                      Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler   Bogen               Eisleben, Lutherstadt   Grevesmühlen              Idar-Oberstein        Lohr am Main             Neuruppin                   Regen                    Schwerte                     Velbert                  Zirndorf
Ahrensburg                 Bad Neustadt (Saale)     Boppard             Elmshorn                Griesheim                 Ilmenau               Lörrach                  Neustadt (Weinstraße)       Regenstauf               Seevetal                     Viersen                  Zittau
Alsfeld                    Bad Reichenhall          Bruchsal            Emden                   Grimma                    Ingelheim am Rhein    Lüchow (Wendland)        Neustadt an der Aisch       Reichenbach (Vogtland)   Senftenberg                  Vilsbiburg               Zweibrücken
Altenburg                  Bad Salzuflen            Burg                Emmendingen             Gummersbach               Iserlohn              Ludwigsburg              Neustadt bei Coburg         Rendsburg                Sindelfingen                 Vilshofen
Alzenau in Unterfranken    Bad Salzungen            Burghausen          Erding                  Günzburg                  Itzehoe               Ludwigsfelde             Neustrelitz                 Rheine                   Sömmerda                     Vohenstrauß
Alzey                      Bad Schwartau            Calw                Erftstadt               Güstrow                   Kaufbeuren            Lünen                    Neuwied                     Ribnitz-Damgarten        Sondershausen                Waiblingen
Amberg                     Bad Tölz                 Castrop-Rauxel      Erkelenz                Hagenow                   Kelheim               Marienberg               Nienburg (Weser)            Riesa                    Sonneberg                    Waldkirchen
Andernach                  Bad Vilbel               Celle               Eschwege                Haldensleben              Kerpen                Markkleeberg             Nordenham                   Rinteln                  Sonthofen                    Waldkraiburg
Anklam                     Bad Zwischenahn          Cham                Eschweiler              Hameln                    Kitzingen             Marktoberdorf            Norderstedt                 Rodalben                 Speyer                       Waldshut-Tiengen
Annaberg-Buchholz          Baden-Baden              Cloppenburg         Esslingen am Neckar     Haßfurt                   Kleve                 Marktredwitz             Nordhausen                  Rodgau                   Spremberg                    Walsrode
Ansbach                    Baunatal                 Cochem              Euskirchen              Hattingen                 Kolbermoor            Marl                     Nordhorn                    Rotenburg (Wümme)        Stade                        Waren (Müritz)
Apolda                     Bautzen                  Cuxhaven            Falkensee               Heide                     Königs Wusterhausen   Meerbusch                Nördlingen                  Roth                     Starnberg                    Weiden (Oberpfalz)
Arnsberg                   Bensheim                 Dachau              Finsterwalde            Heidenheim an der Brenz   Königsbrunn           Meiningen                Northeim                    Rottweil                 Stendal                      Weilheim in Oberbayern
Aschersleben               Bergen (Rügen)           Daun                Forchheim               Heilbad Heiligenstadt     Konz                  Melle                    Ochsenfurt                  Rüsselsheim              Stolberg (Rheinland)         Weinheim
Aurich                     Bergheim                 Deggendorf          Frankenberg             Helmstedt                 Korbach               Memmingen                Öhringen                    Saalfeld (Saale)         Stollberg (Erzgebirge)       Weißenburg in Bayern
Bad Doberan                Bergkamen                Delitzsch           Frankenthal (Pfalz)     Herford                   Köthen                Menden (Sauerland)       Oranienburg                 Saarlouis                Straubing                    Weißenfels
Bad Dürkheim               Bernburg (Saale)         Delmenhorst         Freiberg                Herten                    Kronach               Merseburg (Saale)        Oschersleben (Bode)         Salzwedel, Hansestadt    Strausberg                   Weißwasser
Bad Hersfeld               Betzdorf                 Demmin              Freising                Herxheim bei Landau       Kulmbach              Merzig                   Osterholz-Scharmbeck        Sangerhausen             Stuhr                        Werdau
Bad Homburg vor der Höhe   Biberach an der Riß      Dillingen (Donau)   Freital                 Herzogenaurach            Lahnstein             Michelstadt              Osterode am Harz            Sankt Augustin           Sulzbach-Rosenberg           Werneck
RIWIS
Regionales Immobilien-Wirtschaftliches Informations-System              BulwienGesa AG
                                                                    research • analysis • consulting

                               Granular Data and Urban Structures

                                                                                                       © Xavier Lacot - Flickr
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                                                                                    © Jamie McHale - Flickr
n Visualisation of Urban Structures
n Nation-wide Coverage at Building Block Level
n Granularity, Scalable
n Bespoke Services and Data Provision

n Example Residential Location Quality                                             – solvency
based on granular data on block (Baublock) level, bulwiengesa and microm have      – size of residential units
created a methodology to create small scale location types for residential uses.
Variables taken into account are:                                                  – net migration
    – neighbourhood status                                                         – proximity to greens & parks
    – social millieu (social environment)                                          – distance to industrial areas
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                                   © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Residential Area Quality
                           Dominance
                               very good location
                               good to very good location
                               good location
                               average to good location
                               average location
                               below average to average location
                               below average location
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                  © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Population Density
                           Inhabitants per sqm
                                below1,000
                                1,000 to 2,000
                                2,000 to 3,000
                                3,000 to 5,000
                                5,000 to 9,000
                                9,000 to 18,000
                                over18,000
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                    © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Purchasing Power Index
                           Germany = 100
                                below 80
                                80 to 85
                                85 to 90
                                90 to 100
                                100 to 110
                                110 to 135
                                over135
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                                     © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Main Use of Building
                           Dominance of Single-Family Homes
                                light
                                mean
                                strong
                           Dominance of Small Multi-Family Houses
                               light
                                mean
                                strong
                           Dominance of Larger Multi-Family Houses
                               light
                                mean
                                strong
                           Dominance of Commercial Buildings
                                light
                                mean
                                strong
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                               © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Dominant Life-Cycle Groups

                               Young Singles
                               Yound Couples
                               Young Families
                               Singles
                               Couples
                               Families
                               Senior Singles
                               Senior Couples
                               Senior Multi-Person Househols
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                             © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Food-Store Supply
                           Total sqm of Food Retail
                           Space within 500m of
                           Building Block
                                 prob. small spaces avail.
                                 below500
                                 500 – 1,500
                                 1,500 – 2,500
                                 2,500 – 3,500
                                 3,500 – 5,000
                                 5,000 – 7,000
                                 7,000 – 12,000
                                 12,000 – 20,000
                                 over 20,000
RIWIS • Urban Structures

                                                                     © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                           Public Transport Access
                              limited access to public transport

                              excellent access to public transport
www.RIWIS.de

                                                       www.riwis.de

                                                riwis@bulwiengesa.de

                                                                                                                                          © Jamie McHale - Flickr
                                                  Please contact us!

       Nymphenburger Straße 5   80335 München   T. +49 89 23 23 76-0   F. + 4989 23 23 76-76   info@bulwiengesa.de   www.bulwiengesa.de
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