DIWALI DHAMAKA 2021 - India Infoline
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DIWALI DHAMAKA 2021
Diwali Dhamaka Performance – Year 2020
Reco Price CMP Dividend P&L w/
Sr No Stock
(`) (`) (`) Dividend (%)
Large Caps
1 Reliance Industries 1850 2627.4 0.0 42%
2 Infosys 1063 1719.8 0.0 62%
3 ICICI Bank 444 759.3 0.0 71%
4 HCL Technologies 814 1194 7 47%
5Dr Reddy‘s Laboratories 4877 4637.45 18 -5%
Mid Caps
6 Tube Investments of India 668 1417.75 5 112%
7 Apollo Tyres 143 221.05 1 55%
8 Persistent Systems 1115 3871.9 5 247%
JB Chemicals &
9 28
Pharmaceuticals 983 1697.05 73%
Security & Intelligence
10 0.0
Services (India) 383 474.05 24%
Avg. Return % 73%
Nifty 50 Return % 49%
*Price as on 22nd October , 2021; # ABB India price adj. for APPSIL
2
Sanjiv Bhasin Diwali Portfolio – Year 2020
CMP
Sr No Stock % Allocation
(`)
1 Federal Bank 102 16.6
2 Godrej Properties 2351 16.6
3 NBCC 47.05 16.6
4 ABCAPITAL 101 16.6
5 IRB 300 16.6
6 RBL Bank 211 16.6
Portfolio Return % 113%
Nifty 50 Return % 49%
Market Guru Sanjiv Bhasin had recommended a Multibagger Portfolio during Diwali 2020.
We are glad to announce that the portfolio has given a return of 113%, outperforming Nifty 50 by 64%!
Note: The portfolio has been rebalanced 4 times since Diwali 2020.
3
Indian Equity Outlook
• GST collection has been crossing average 1.2 lakh crore consistently in the last 6 months, revenue
collection looks stable for the government.
• With Covid-19 in the backdrop now and more than 100 Billion doses of Covid vaccines being
administered, the focus would be back on growth sectors.
• The MPC retained FY22 GDP forecast of 9.5% but raised 3Q GDP estimates from 6.3% to 6.8%. The
governor noted growth impulses strengthening in the last 2 months, based on High Frequency indicators
looking up.
• Going forward, we believe a calibrated withdrawal of liquidity by the RBI is likely, especially as the
inflation impulse from excess liquidity will start effecting as credit growth picks up.
4
Indian Equity Outlook
• We believe that companies with robust business model, strong moat, resilient balance sheet will help
the portfolio tide over the impending volatility which could be expected by the hike in the interest rates.
• Investment cycles drive sustained economic growth, and the improving outlook on income would
encourage household investment spending.
• What can derail this stack of assumptions is if supply bottlenecks turn out to be so persistent that growth
is obstructed and inflation becomes entrenched, thus creating stagflation. But, we believe chances are
that this would be resolved over the next year.
5TOP 10 STOCKS
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR
2022
Buy IIFL Diwali Dhamaka 2021 6Diwali Dhamaka Stocks – Year 2021
Return
Sr No Stock CMP Target Weightage Buy Now
Potential
Large Caps
1 ICICI Bank 795-822 940 16% 10% Buy
2 Infosys 1675-1726 2080 22% 7% Buy
3 Tata Motors 470-493 610 27% 7% Buy
4 HDFC Bank 1570-1630 2000 25% 9% Buy
5 Larsen & Toubro 1780-1845 2192 21% 7% Buy
6 Tata Steel 1260-1310 1897 48% 9% Buy
Mid Caps
7 12% 9%
Tube Investments of India 1360-1410 1555 Buy
8 Deepak Nitrite 2190-2270 2890 30% 6% Buy
9 SWSOLAR 400-422 750 82% 5% Buy
10 RSWM 375-391 700 83% 5% Buy
Shriram Transport
11 23% 10%
Finance 1455-1510 1825 Buy
Persistent Systems
12 22% 9%
3900-3990 4795 Buy
Tata Chemicals
13 28% 7%
880-910 1150 Buy
*Price as on October 28, 2021
Buy IIFL Diwali Dhamaka 2021 7Large Caps
8ICICI Bank
CMP: ₹795-822 BUY TP: ₹940 Upside: 16%
• ICICIBC reported a profit of Rs55.1bn in 2QFY22 with strong performance across metrics. Core PPOP
grew 21% YoY. NII grew 7/25% QoQ/YoY to Rs117bn, driven by all-time high NIMs of 4% and strong
loan growth of 17% YoY.
• Core fees grew 18%/21% QoQ/YoY. Provisions came in at Rs27bn as ICICIBC did not utilise
contingency provisions. GNPA ratio declined 39bps QoQ to 5.1% owing to negligible net slippages.
• NIM increased on both, YoY and QoQ basis, aided by the decline in cost of funds which had a larger
impact than the decline in yield on funds.
• Loan growth remained robust at 17% YoY (same as 1QFY22). Domestic loan growth was marginally
lower at 19% YoY (20% YoY in 1QFY22). Growth was driven by retail loans (+22% YoY) and SME loans
(+41% YoY).
• We increase NIM estimates 10-15bps, leading to 3-5% increase in NII. Continued momentum in retail
and SME business should keep fee-income growth healthy. On the back of buoyancy in core income,
we expect ICICIBC to accelerate on opex, to invest in its franchise and tech.
Financial Summary
Consolidated (`bn) Revenue CAR (%) EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY22E 188.0 19.1 33.0 41.0 16.9 14.7
FY23E 218.3 18.3 39.0 18.1 14.3 15.5
9Infosys
CMP: ₹1675-1726 BUY TP: ₹2,080 Upside: 22%
• Infosys is a leading provider of consulting, technology, outsourcing and next-generation digital services,
enabling clients to execute strategies for their digital transformation.
• Broad based growth as Infosys reported US$ revenue of 4bn, a growth of +6.3% cc QoQ/+19.4% cc YoY
− the fastest YoY revenue growth in 11 years.
• Led by strong deal wins of US$2.15bn in 2QFY22 (37% net new; TTM +67% YoY), a robust demand
environment and the healthy deal pipeline, Infosys has raised its FY22 revenue growth guidance for a
second time in the fiscal, ranging at 16.5-17.5% cc YoY (from 14-16% cc YoY earlier).
• Of the 22 large deals signed this quarter, 5 are in the BFSI space.
• It retained margin guidance of 22-24%. We believe this adequately factors in potential headwinds,
including reduction in cost savings from travel, higher subcontracting and skill-based wage hikes from 1-
Oct.
• We believe Infosys will continue delivering industry leading growth among large caps which warrants
convergence of its valuation gap with TCS. We believe consistent earnings delivery ensures that it will
become a core portfolio-holding for FIIs, after a decade of trading at a discount to TCS.
Financial Summary
EBITDA
Consolidated (`mn) Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
Margin
FY22E 1,195,235 26.5% 53.3 15.8 32.1 29.7 40.5
FY23E 1,382,785 26.3 62.3 17.0 27.4 33.5 45.6
10Tata Motors
CMP: ₹470-493 BUY TP: ₹610 Upside: 27%
• Tata Motors Group is a leading global automobile manufacturer.
• TTMT has taken the lead in this nascent market, with ~70% market-share. Some of the factors that are
aiding higher EV penetration are government incentives, launch of relatively affordable models, rise in
ICE vehicle prices, sharp rise in fuel costs, etc.
• TTMT’s planned passenger car EV subsidiary (‘EVCo.’) will be asset-light and would house all dedicated
EV talent and design capabilities. ‘EVCo.’ would invest USD2bn over the next five years in products,
platforms, charging infrastructure, etc.
• TTMT aims to take the lead in accelerating EV adoption of the industry. Management targets EVs
contributing 20% of its PV volumes in the next 5 years, by offering wider India specific products with
different body styles and driving ranges.
• Plans to launch EV models by FY26. The growth potential is high, with demand/bookings outpacing
supply (large order backlog).
• Tata Group will provide the overall eco-system, namely Tata Power for EV charging infra, Tata Motors
Finance for financing, TCS/Tata Elxsi for ADAS and technology, Tata AutoComp for battery assembly
plant, Tata Chemicals for Li-ion cell manufacturing and battery recycling.
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 2,850,192 10.2 (9.5) - (44.2) - -
FY23E 3,809,014 13.8 35.7 - 11.8 - -
11HDFC Bank
CMP: ₹1570-1630 BUY TP: ₹2000 Upside: 25%
• HDFC Bank is the largest private sector bank in India with a market share of ~10.3% in system loans as of FY21. It
has a strong national network of 5,608 branches spread across urban and rural markets, a high-quality deposit
franchise, well-diversified revenue mix, strong asset quality, and consistent financial performance.
• We see some greenshoots of high yielding retail/SME loan growth improving and asset quality stabilizing , giving
room to HDFC Bank to invest in tech and franchise in a highly competitive environment.
• NIMs stable QoQ at 4.1% , Fees (incl. forex income) grew 14/29% QoQ/YoY and Opex grew 14/15% QoQ/YoY led
by additional ESOP prov. of Rs830mn.
• GNPA ratio in the corporate segment is low at 0.55% reflecting strong asset quality, while it is also low in the retail
segment at 1.37% driven by stronger underwriting.
• HDFC Bank continued to scale-up its branch network in 2QFY22, adding 33 branches. Further, ~400 branches are
in various stages of readiness and would be opened shortly.
• Credit card spends grew 36% YoY and 27% QoQ in the quarter. The ban on issuance of new credit cards was lifted
by the RBI on August 18, 2021 post which they issued ~416k cards in the last 5 weeks of 2QFY22 which they
expect to sustain.
• We expect trend to improve going forward. Best-in-class CAR of ~20% and CET 1 of ~17.4% shall ensure dilution-
free growth ahead, and liquidity levels should help the Bank. ROA/ROE is expected to be best in class at ~2/18%.
Financial Summary
Consolidated (`bn) Revenue CAR (%) EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY22E 1040.7 19.2 66 17.5 25.4 16.7
FY23E 1208.0 19.4 78 18.2 21.5 17.3
12Larsen and Toubro
CMP: ₹1780-1845 BUY TP: ₹2192 Upside: 21%
• L&T is India’s largest engineering and construction company with no real peers when compared on
breadth and depth of offerings.
• On the back of strong sector tailwinds and outperformance of L&T’s listed IT subsidiaries (LTI, LTTS,
MTCL) driving an earnings upgrade, we raise consol. EPS for L&T by 4/6/5% for FY22/23/24. Value of
listed subs has increased to Rs1,062/sh (vs Rs727 in Aug21), now contributing to 48% of the share in
L&T’s SOTP valuation, up from 40% in Aug-21
• Normalcy in business operations, expects execution and orders to accelerate in 2H to deliver a mid-
teen growth in FY22.
• L&T group aims to invest in implementation of green energy in manufacturing and construction sites
and also offer solutions to customers in areas such as hydrogen, decarbonisation, bio-fuels in its
journey of energy transition.
• Pick up in execution, expertise in managing costs, improving NWC cycle and balance-sheet repair
should aid 19% EPS CAGR (ex-services) in FY22-24. Core valuations are attractive at 13x FY23ii EPS.
L&T now trades at 15x/13x FY22/23ii EPS (~10% cheaper vs Aug-21).
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 1,582,414 12.2 68.9 38.9 26.0 12.2
FY23E 1,856,629 12.4 86.5 25.5 20.7 14.0
13Tata Steel
CMP: ₹1260-1310 BUY TP: ₹1897 Upside: 48%
• Tata Steel is India’s second-largest private sector steel company. Established in 1907, it now boasts of
19.6mtpa of finished steel capacity in India.
• TSE’s NSR jump has lagged spot prices, as ~60% of volumes entail a six-monthly re-pricing.
Management indicated a EUR200/t jump in NSR at TSE in 2Q, as contracts have reset at higher
pricing. This should continue inching up if such steel prices sustain.
• Combined with strength in India operations due to elevated steel prices, this drives 22%/15%
upgrade to the FY22/23ii consolidated EBITDA.
• Post a largely stable debt in 1Q, strong profitability combined with minimal further increase in
working capital needs should drive strong deleveraging in FY22.
• Tata Steel’s standalone EBITDA at Rs102.1bn (+11% QoQ) was largely in line with estimates.
Standalone EBITDA/t expanded to a decade high of Rs35,570, aided by price hikes.
• Domestic steel prices are at 20% discount to landed cost of imports which offers room for further
prices hikes going forward, if demand is strong.
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 2,323,093 29.1 342.1 380.1 4.3 44.9
FY23E 1,986,739 23.3 210.7 (38.4) 6.9 21.0
14Mid & Small Caps
15Tube Investments
CMP: ₹1360-1410 BUY TP: ₹1555 Upside: 12%
• As part of the large and diversified Murugappa Group, Tube Investment Holdings is a mobility-focused
manufacturing company with a strong, established franchise across the auto and industrial sectors.
• TI’s 3W electric foray is on track for launch in March ’22, with in-house manufacturing granting
advantages of superior design, performance and service vs peers. Testing for 50k kms is complete, with
encouraging results.
• Subsequent plans include foray into electric 3Ws (cargo) as well as e-rickshaws next year, and electric 2Ws
thereafter. TI has also launched an e-bike in Tamil Nadu during Jul-21 and expects to expand distribution
to rest of India as well as via exports in coming months.
• In the engineering and metal-formed business, traction in exports has been strong, with revenue share
rising to 16-17% in 1QFY22 vs 8-9% earlier. This is largely driven by the engineering business and
industrial chains. Bicycle exports should also double in FY22, as per management.
• The company is also exploring opportunities in waste-to-energy, standalone power grids and medical
devices.
• Aluminium tube manufacturing as well as supply of motors from CG Power are being explored for EVs.
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 101,842 11.6% 37.8 110.5 39.3 29.7 20.3
FY23E 118,570 12.2% 44.3 17.0 33.6 27.9 21.6
16Deepak Nitrite
CMP: ₹2190-2270 BUY TP: ₹2890 Upside: 30%
• DNL's Basic Chemicals (BC) segment surprised, with further sharp improvement in margins (up +530bps QoQ) to
34%. The company took advantage of the positive price trend across certain products
• Demand for Fine & Speciality Chemicals continue to be strong.
• The nitro business has a decent mix of large and small customers. The nitro business is also benefitting from the
closure of capacities in China and the reluctance of European manufacturers to engage in hazardous chemistries.
• The company is in the advanced stages of doubling the IPA plant capacity and also improving on the power utility
costs (via a captive power plant). Management expects these projects to contribute from 3QFY22.
• In terms of new capex, the company has announced a plan to invest Rs7bn into downstream products of phenol
and acetone, namely new import-substitute solvents. DNL will invest Rs3bn in new chemistries like fluorination in
order to expand specialty product lines.
• DNL aims to select only those products in which the company could be among the top-3 global suppliers for the
next 10- 15 years. The key focus areas in terms of end-use segments would be solvents, life science chemicals, and
dyes & pigments.
• Apart from growth projects, DNL is setting up a premium high-tech R&D centre. The company will make higher
investments in R&D initiatives and launch new products in coming years.
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 59,945 15,443 72.3 27.2 29.1 35.3 40.40
FY23E 66,404 17,318 84.1 16.2 25.1 30.4 36.4
17SW Solar
CMP: ₹400-422 BUY TP: ₹750 Upside: 82%
• Sterling and Wilson Solar Ltd is one of the leading end-to-end solar engineering, procurement and
construction (EPC) solutions providers globally and is also engaged in the operation and maintenance (O&M)
of solar power projects. The company is backed by strong parentage of the Shapoorji Pallonji Group (SP
Group)
• Reliance Energy has made an open offer @375 to acquire 40%, which heralds the group into solar energy
with the company being the biggest solar panel maker in the world. Also, it is the country' largest player in
MEP & EPC execution with debt being paid off by past promoters.
• Order inflow till date at Rs473cr (623 MW) with 8.7 GW contracted O&M as on date. Gross Un-execute
Order Value (UOV) as at date is Rs 8,731 cr. Management is focusing on to target large markets like North
America & Europe with combined size over 26.5 GW in CY21.
• Due to the impact caused by the increase in module and commodity prices, adjusted gross margins in Q1FY22
continue to remain suppressed for ongoing project.
Financial Summary
Consolidated (`bn) Net income PAT Margin EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY22E 54,365 4% 3.40 - 31 22.84
FY23E 59,257 5% 11.08 36% 22.7 28.03%
18RSWM
CMP: ₹375-391 BUY TP: ₹700 Upside: 83%
• RSWM Limited is engaged in the manufacturing, spinning, weaving and processing of man made textile
fabrics. The company is also engaged in cotton spinning and weaving. Its segment includes Yarn, and Fabric
& Denim. RSWM is the Largest yarn maker with popular brand "Mayur" doing extremely well. It is also one
of the largest makers of denim supplying to "Levi' Calvin Klein & Wrangler.
• The company has been able to manage operations at full capacity through out the period of restrictions.
Q1FY22 has ended with total revenues at Rs750cr and PAT of Rs37cr.
• Debts slightly increased as compared to 31st March due to increased working capital utilization on account
of stock of cotton & increased volume of business. Debt is mostly from hydro & solar power plants which is
in state partnerships & which are now doing very well which will see reduction in debt & improvement in
ROE.
• Company’s manufacturing units are operating at normal capacity. Inventories are under control. Increased
penetration of organized retail, favorable demographics and rising income level will drive demand of Textiles
in the future Pandemic has led to an increased demand for Technical Textiles also.
• As 100% FDI is allowed (automatic route), PLI of Rs10,683cr (USD 1.44 billion) for man made fiber and
Technical Textiles, support to hand loom weavers under MUDRA Scheme will led to the growth in the top l&
bottom line of the company
Financial Summary
Consolidated (`mn) Net income PAT Margin EPS (`) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY22E 25,586 2.0% 21.7 16.9 6%
FY23E 28400 3.0% 36.2 10.14 9%
19Shriram Transport Finance
CMP: ₹1455-1510 BUY TP: ₹1825 Upside: 23%
• Shriram Transport Finance is the largest financer of CVs in India. The company enjoys a large
market share of ~25% in the used-CV financing market and ~6% in the new-CV financing
segment. With focus on a particular set of customers − small-truck owners − who do not have
access to bank financing, SHTF has developed a unique ‘close-to-the-customer’ model over the
past 30 years.
• Management is in the process of evaluating mergers within the group companies.
• Shriram Transport Finance’s Disbursement in the 1QFY22 was a positive surprise as it was 4%
higher than the pre-Covid levels driven by pent-up demand in PV and LCV segment along with
sanctions from previous quarters.
• With economic activities resuming post Covid-19, we can expect normal provisioning from 3QFY22
as collection and recoveries would improve.
• The company has excess liquidity on its balance sheet, and this was leading to excess negative
carry. The management plans to reduce the excess liquidity which can tackle this negative carry
and increase margins.
Financial Summary
Consolidated (`bn) Net income PAT Margin EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY22E 89.2 30.5% 108.2 10% 14.09 11%
FY23E 101.4 32.0% 123.8 14% 12.32 10.56%
20Persistent Systems
CMP: ₹3900-3990 BUY TP: ₹4795 Upside: 22%
• The company’s focus is on helping clients build and manage software-driven businesses.
• Its business strategy is aligned around four key areas: (A) Digital: Bringing together their technology
partner ecosystem, solutions and a unique architecture to enable digital transformation, (B) Alliance:
Focus on long-standing and multidimensional relationship between PSYS and IBM, (C) Services: Focus on
services for software and product development including agile and experience design, (D) Accelerite:
Focus on products that include business-critical infrastructure software for enterprises, telecom operators
and public sector.
• Their focus on penetrating sub-segments of Healthcare is yielding results and, given their strong
positioning in the Instrumentation/Medical devices sub segment and Salesforce capabilities for the
Provider market, the outlook remains robust.
• 2Q margin at 13.9% were above estimates, despite full impact of wage hikes during the quarter.
• In the past 3 quarters, PSYS has won deals worth 114% of FY21 revenues, executable in the next 12
months. Its headcount grew 47% yoy and is a key leading indicator of FY22 growth. A combination of
improved revenue visibility (29% CAGR in FY21- 23ii) and steady margin improvement over the next two
years will drive 39% EPS CAGR over FY21-23ii.
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 52,805 16.9 89.6 51.9 33.9 23.0 30.8
FY23E 62,317 17.3 109.6 22.4 27.7 24.8 33.1
21Tata Chemicals
CMP: ₹880-910 BUY TP: ₹1150 Upside: 28%
• Tata Chemicals Ltd. (TCL) operates principally in industrial, agricultural and consumer chemicals. The
company is among the world's top manufacturers of soda ash with annual production capacity in excess
of 4m tons spread across four continents.
• More than 70% of TCL's soda ash capacity is based on low-cost natural sources, giving the company a
sustainable competitive advantage relative to synthetic soda ash manufacturers. In addition, the company
has a presence in India's agricultural inputs industry by virtue of its majority ownership stake in Rallis
India, which manufactures agrochemicals and seeds.
• The outlook for soda ash has markedly improved in recent months, with sharp price increases announced
in India as well as the US. This should drive margin improvement in coming quarters. soda ash itself is
consumed in significant quantities to manufacture lithium-ion batteries, and this will be an important
demand driver in coming years.
• Soda ash spot prices are already up, but contracted prices are still below pre-COVID levels. Pricing
contracts in the US and UK markets are renewed annually and will be reset in Dec-2021; that is when the
benefits of the market tightness will show up in financials.
• Nutraceuticals business seems to be gaining traction, with recent customer order wins. The outlook for
salt and bicarbonate is also positive, while IMACID profits too have vaulted
Financial Summary
Consolidated EBITDA
Revenue EPS (`) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`mn) Margin
FY22E 123,543 19.5 46.2 359.1 17.8 8.0 7.7
FY23E 1353,879 21.0 55.5 20.2 14.8 9.0 9.1
22Disclosure
Disclaimer:
Recommendation Parameters for Fundamental/Technical Reports:
Buy – Absolute return of over +10%
Accumulate – Absolute return between 0% to +10% Reduce – Absolute return
between 0% to -10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%
Please refer to http://www.indiainfoline.com/research/disclaimer for recommendation parameter, analyst disclaimer and other disclosures.
Investments in securities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing. There is no assurance
or guarantee that the investment objectives shall be achieved. IIFL does not guarantee any assured returns on the investments
recommended herein. Past performance of securities/ instruments is not indicative of their future performance. IIFL makes no
representation/s or warranty/ies, express s or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information compiled herein,
and hereby disclaims any liability with regard to the same, including, without limitation, any direct, indirect, incidental or consequential loss.
You shall verify the veracity of the information on your own before using the information provided in the document. Investors are
requested to review the prospectus carefully and obtain expert professional advice. IIFL group, associate and subsidiary companies are
engaged in providing various financial services and for the said services (including the service for acquiring and sourcing the units of the
fund) may earn fees or remuneration.
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