ECONOMIC GPS N 61 - MAY 2020 - TRACKING - PWC ARGENTINA
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N° 61 - May 2020
Economic GPS
Tracking
The challenges of the Argentine economy in times of 4
COVID-19
Industry Roadmap
7
Mining – putting paradigms to the test
Federal Landscape
8
Province: Salta
Editorial speculate. If we analyze two variables, for Conversely, if the Government does
example, an agreement with creditors and not reach an agreement with foreign
an economic plan, we can construct four creditors, by definition there would
scenarios. not be foreign debt payments (at least
not in the short term), but, at the same
If the Government reaches an agreement time, there would not be any chances
with the creditors on debt renegotiation, no of accessing the voluntary debt market
significant payments would be expected (including the private sector). In this case,
Possible post in the next years. At the same time, there
would be a possibility to access the
voluntary debt market at reasonable rates
to finance short-term fiscal expansion.
the mid-term possibilities can also split
into two scenarios: either to develop a
limited economic program for protecting
and managing flows, or to move forward
COVID-19 However, the economic path in the mid
and long term will not depend on the
outcome of a renegotiation with foreign
creditors but rather on the decisions
without program or adjustments. Within
the current international context, unlike the
events that took place in the first decade
of the millennium, the first scenario —a
scenarios made in terms of economic policy. If a
comprehensive macroeconomic program
is also established, aimed at achieving
fiscal balance, by introducing structural
kind of extreme model of “living with our
means”— may result in great amount of
effort and demands that question social
support. In the second scenario, the only
changes that allow for a sustained recovery source of financing of an increasing deficit
of confidence and investment and a is money issuance, which builds pressure
boost in international trade (subject to on the exchange rate gap and price levels,
the consequences of the pandemic), it and, in the mid-term, drives devaluation
would be possible to imagine a scenario of and price hikes, with consequences
relatively rapid recovery and subsequent already known in the history of the country.
The urgency to implement protection June 2, aiming to reach an agreement. growth. On the contrary, an agreement
measures in the face of the COVID-19 Whether or not Argentina reaches an with creditors facilitating access to the The price fluctuation of Argentine bonds
outbreak modified the priorities of social agreement in the renegotiation with the credit market and reducing the need of in the last days allows us to infer that
and economic policies in most countries bond holders is not irrelevant to the future money issuance, but not combined with negotiations are still running and an
worldwide. Nevertheless, the fiscal of the Argentine economy, especially in the a sustainable plan that leads to larger agreement cannot be ruled out. If market
situation with which each economy meets current COVID-19 scenario. and sound investments, could give way signals are confirmed, we would still need
these challenges is very diverse. In the to a certain balance of macroeconomic to see which decisions will be adopted
case of Argentina, it is very limited. In fact, As explained in detail in the Tracking of this variables and recovery. However, at best, from then on in terms of policy.
the pandemic found the local economy, edition, fiscal accounts will be significantly the country would achieve an economic
once again, struggling to solve its fiscal hit by the increase in public spending, growth far below its potential level and go
and debt scenarios for the next years. as a result of the measures adopted to through volatility cycles that, as in the past,
In this respect, the way in which these compensate the income of a large part of could increase during electoral processes.
scenarios unfold may create highly varied the population and to support businesses,
medium- and long-term paths for the local as well as by the decrease in tax revenue,
economy. which have been affected due to a
downturn in economic activity. Financing
The grace period for the payment of this bulging primary fiscal deficit raises
USD 503 million interest on international great concerns. José María Segura
bonds, whose original due date was last Economista Jefe de PwC Argentina
April, expired on May 22. However, the Therefore, the outcome of the debt
Government announced that it would renegotiation is key as it sets different
continue negotiating with the creditors until courses, about which it is possible to
Contents
04 07 08
Tracking Industry Roadmap Federal Landscape Macro monitors 12
The challenges of the Argentine Mining – putting paradigms to Province: Salta
economy in times of COVID-19 the test
The province of Salta is located in the Table of indicators 13
The pandemic broke in Argentina in a The global uncertainty created by the North-West region of the Argentine
time when the economy was fragile, COVID-19 pandemic affects each and Republic. Its productive structure shows
going through its second year of every industry, generating difficulties a significant share of tobacco, sugar
recession and facing the challenge for business management and putting cane and bean manufacture. Likewise,
posed by debt renegotiation. every existing paradigm to the test, other relevant manufactures stand out: Our services. Contacts 14
These issues still remain, although even in the mining activity. hydrocarbons, wine business, citrus sector
new challenges have arisen as a and mining.
result of the shock caused by the
epidemiological situation. Among
these challenges, the most relevant is
how the Treasury is going to balance
its spending needs and its financing
options.
Tracking
The challenges of the Argentine
economy in times of COVID-19
The pandemic broke in Argentina in a the 267% rise in transfers to the
time when the economy was fragile, provinces, 125% in subsidies and
going through its second year of 67% in welfare payments, as against
recession and facing the challenge the same period of the prior year) and
posed by debt renegotiation. a tax collection well below inflation.
These issues still remain, although
new challenges have arisen as a Given the extension of the
result of the shock caused by the limitations on productive activities
epidemiological situation. Among that continued, during April and
these challenges, the most relevant is May, though subject to some
how the Treasury is going to balance changes, the National Government
its spending needs and its financing implemented policies to partially
options. contain the economic crisis of the
different social actors. According
During the first quarter of the year, to a detailed analysis published by
the National Public Sector recorded the Argentine Budget Office, as of
a primary deficit of ARS 155.9 billion April 28, the measures designed
compared with the surplus of ARS to support vulnerable sectors
10.3 billion reached in the same period and private companies, and other
of the prior year. Although the three measures specific to the health
months showed a deficit, 80% of sector, amounted to ARS 576 billion,
it materialized in March, the month representing around 2.1% of GDP. In
in which the social, preventive and turn, tax exemptions would result in
mandatory isolation period began, a lower tax revenue of approximately
halting a large part of the economic ARS 51.5 billion (0.2% of GDP),
activity. In March, such fiscal while financial facilities would hover
imbalance stemmed from increases around ARS 571.7 billion (another 2
in current expenditure (most notably percentage points of GDP).
4
The national authorities indicated The complexity of the situation is Besides from generating disruptions
that the national emergency family GRAPHIC 1 that the National Government has in the economy and signals that are
allowance (IFE, for its acronym in Revenues, expenditure and results of the Non-Financial no access to credit; therefore, in difficult to internalize, the widening of
Spanish) and the payment of 50% of a context of revenue losses and the exchange rate gap may lead to
the private sector employee wages (up
National Public Sector, in millions of pesos increase in expenditure, the only new and higher inflationary pressures
to a ceiling of two minimum wages) possible alternative in the short term in the medium term, especially if there
Tota l re ve nues Primary cu rrent e xpe nditure
will be extended for an additional 600,000 is financing through money issuance is an excess of liquidity that exerts
Capital expenditures Primary result
month. These, added to other smaller by the Central Bank. Based on data even more pressure on the parallel
benefits1, will imply an additional 400,000 as of May 12, so far this year, the foreign exchange rate, thus widening
increase in public spending of about Central Bank transferred temporary the gap even more.
ARS 319 billion, which could reach advances and profit transfers for ARS In the very short term, an inflationary
200,000
ARS 490 billion, if these benefits 912 billion to the National Treasury, spiral seems less unlikely, as there are
remain for another month. In addition, which represent around 3% of GDP. An many prices fixed by the Government,
at least in May and June, there will - amount of ARS 730 billion of the total for example, public utilities fees,
be a loss of tax revenue as a result of mentioned above was transferred after fuel and some food product prices,
the slowdown in economic activity. -200 ,00 0 the beginning of the quarantine period. added to the strong impact caused
According to data from the Federal Jan19 feb19 mar19 Jan20 feb20 mar20 by COVID-19, which has practically
Administration of Public Revenue Hence, considering the behavior of the paralyzed economic activity since
Source: Prepared by the authors based on statistics from the Ministry of Finance
(AFIP), total revenue in March was Central Bank liabilities, the average March 20. Even with all these
12 percentage points below the value of the monetary base in the first elements, the monthly Consumer Price
average growth for the period between 12 days of May is 36% above that of Index (CPI) hit 1.5% in April, its lowest
September 2019 and February 2020, December 2019, while the value of the level since January 2018. If the wide
GRAPHIC 2
which was already showing negative stock of Leliqs is 65% above the levels exchange rate gap and high liquidity
values in real terms, whereas in April, Tax revenue of said month. Even though one might remain unchanged, future devaluation
revenue fell by 36% as against the 80% 600 ,00 0 infer a higher precautionary demand expectations may arise and, given the
same period. As previously mentioned, 500 ,00 0
for cash within a context in which lack of a comprehensive program that
this situation is likely to repeat while 60% banks are not operating normally due provides post-pandemic economic
400 ,00 0
restrictions on circulation due to the to the health measures, the increased measures, inflationary pressures may
health measures continue and may 40% 300 ,00 0 amount of pesos in circulation — materialize.
result in additional revenue losses 200 ,00 0 against a backdrop of negative real
20%
ranging from ARS 227,000 to ARS 100 ,00 0 interest rates and a regulated foreign
508,000 in the coming months. Thus, 0% 0 exchange market— gave way to a
Treasury total spending needs could widening of the exchange rate gap
reach ARS 998 billion in the next two (difference between official and parallel
months. Tax reven ue i n millio ns of p eso s (righ t axis) market rates).
Yea r-on-year variation
Averag e in Se pt2 9-Feb20
Source: Prepared by the authors based on AFIP data.
1
Food card, extraordinary payment to pensioners,
bonus to beneficiaries of the Universal Child Allowance
(UAH), a grace period for debts held by pensioners,
guarantees for bank lending to MSMEs provided by the
Argentine Guarantee Fund (FOGAR), zero-rate loans.
5
At this point, the answer to most
of the concerns caused by the GRAPHIC 3
macroeconomic situation depends Interest and inflation rates
mainly on the outcome of the debt
renegotiation, which has been 100 %
postponed until June 2, rather than 80%
on the extension of the quarantine 60%
—although this is no minor issue. 40%
If Argentina reaches a payment 20%
agreement that paves the way for 0%
fiscal slack over the next years and
allows it to return to volunteer capital
markets at reasonable rates, it could
be possible to anticipate that financing Monetary policy rate
would not be an issue in the short CPI
term; therefore, it could reduce the
BADLA R rate in p esos at p riva te ban ks, dep osits o f more tha n A RS
need for money issuance involved in
1.000.000
the fiscal expansion, in the face of this
Source: Prepared by the authors based on BCRA and INDEC official statistics
pandemic. Furthermore, even though
creditors may have certain tolerance
in the short term, such agreement is
expected to be associated with some GRAPHIC 4
commitment to cutting deficit in the Exchange rates
medium and long term, which would
reduce future financing needs and the
160
risk of inflation ratcheting up. 140
120
In contrast, a sustained increase 100
in spending financed exclusively 80
through money issuance may lead 60
the Argentine economy to exacerbate 40
economic imbalances. To date, as 20
negotiations have not yet concluded, -
the intention to reach an agreement 202 0-01-0 2 202 0-02-0 2 202 0-03-0 2 202 0-04-0 2 202 0-05-0 2
seems to prevail.
Blue chip swa p (CCL) Offi cial
Non official Tourist
Source: Prepared by the authors based on BCRA, Reuters and Ambito.com official data
6
Mining – putting
Industry paradigms to the test
Roadmap By Leonardo Viglione, partner at PwC
Argentina, Mining Industry Leader.
The global uncertainty created by the would minimize interruptions in the population in quarantine, which will
COVID-19 pandemic affects each and productive chain and help maintain probably cause the normally high
every industry, generating difficulties production volumes. Exceptional demand for this type of gold to suffer
for business management and putting situations, such as the one we a decline in the present context. The
every existing paradigm to the test, currently face, force organizations to same applies to other minerals, such
even in the mining activity. rethink operational risk scenarios that as copper or iron, which will be hit by a
were deemed unlikely or not assessed drop in demand in their markets.
It is common knowledge that in the past.
technology is becoming a critical Exceptional situations such as the
differentiator. Automation and The quarantine imposed by ones we are currently experiencing will
digitalization have been gaining governments to safeguard populations clearly require reconsidering the very
great impetus due to the significant from the effects of the pandemic foundations of business as we know
and differentiating benefits of digital will very likely generate declines in it. Industries like mining will probably
leadership. The current situation production and drops in prices of raw change in unprecedented ways;
generates an opportunity to step- materials and minerals in the short however, the essentials of efficiency,
up and take an additional leap in term as a result of saturated storage profitability, suitable use of resources,
the automation and robotization of capacities. In the medium and long sustainability, social license and
many processes (such as the use term, this will translate into a shortfall community relations will remain, and
of autonomous means of transport, in supply as a result of the suspension the industry will continue to work on
remote operation of heavy machinery, of continuous production cycles and them as it evolves.
the use of blockchain to track consumption of safety stocks.
materials from their extraction to the
point of sale, commercial applications Speaking of facts that were probably
for drones to replace humans in not analyzed until recently, we may
hazardous work, to cite a few note, by way of example, that India
examples). is the world’s leading market for gold
for jewelry-making. As many other
As the old adage says, in the midst countries, India has put its entire
of every crisis lies great opportunity.
Increased use of technology
7
Federal
1,214,441 7.8 155,488
Landscape Population Population density
(pob/km2)
Area in km2
Province:
Salta
Employment and income indexes
Province: Salta
Region: Northwest
Province Region Nation
Employment rate 42.7% 41.4% 43.0%
Unemployment 10.3% 8.3% 8.9%
The province of Salta borders with the province of Jujuy
and Bolivia to the north; with the Republic of Paraguay and
the provinces of Formosa and Chaco to the east; with the Activity rate 47.6% 45.1% 47.2%
provinces of Santiago del Estero, Tucumán and Catamarca to
the south, and with the province of Jujuy and the Republic of
Chile to the west. Employment* (in
118 449 6,042
thousands)
It is the 7th most populated jurisdiction in Argentina,
concentrating 3.1% of the country’s population.
*Registered private sector employees by province. Note 1 (rates): Ministerio de Economía, https://www.
The provincial Gross Geographic Product (GGP) represented minhacienda.gob.ar/datos/.
Note 2 (employment): Ministry of Labor, Employment
1.5% in the country’s total share, according to the most recent
and Social Security. Report of the work registered.
statistics (2012) with homogeneous methodology (ECLAC,
2005).
8
Fiscal indicators
Tax revenue by origin, 2019 Fiscal Result, millions of pesos Composition of current expenditure, 2019
6,0 00
4,0 00 Consumer expenses
23.7%
2,0 00 27%
Inte rest and Debt
Pro vincial Ori gin - Expenses
(2,0 00) 0.1%
0% Social Security
National Origi n 4% Ben efits
(4,0 00)
69% Curren t Tr ansfers
76.3%
(6,0 00)
201 6 201 7 201 8 201 9
Primary result, accumul ated Financial Result, accumula ted
Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on Ministry of Economy, Secretary of Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on Ministry of Economy, Secretary Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on Ministry of Economy, Secretary
Finance, Official Budget Office, Government of the Province of Salta. of Finance, Official Budget Office, Government of the Province of Salta. of Finance, Official Budget Office, Government of the Province of Salta.
Total income and expenses, millions of pesos Public Debt, in million of pesos(1) In 2019, the Central Administration and Decentralized Bodies
40,000
of the province of Salta recorded a financial loss amounting to
100 % 100,000 ARS 1.2 billion, resulting from an income of ARS 86.4 billion and
80% 80,000 30,000 expenses amounting to ARS 87.5 billion.
60% 60,000 20,000
40% 40,000
Total income increased 34.9% compared to the previous year. In
10,000 turn, expenses for the previous year rose 46.26% compared to
20% 20,000
the ARS 59.8 billion incurred in 2018.
0% - -
201 7 201 8 201 9 200 8 200 9 201 0 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 5 201 6 201 7 201 8 Q3
201 9 Total provincial public debt, excluding floating debt, at
National Governmen t FTFRI (2) September 30, 2019 amounted to ARS 35.6 billion.
Tota l Revenu es, right a xis PDTF (3) Ban kin g a nd fina ncia l in stitutio ns
Tota l E xpe nse s, right axis Consolida ted Debt Govern me nt Bon ds (4)
Yea r-on-year variation tota l expen ditu re Inte rnational Org anizati ons
Yea r-on-year variation tota l income
Source: General Directorate of Fiscal Relations, Fiscal Responsibility System, Ministry
of Economy.
Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on Ministry of Economy, Secretary of Notes:
Finance, Official Budget Office, Government of the Province of Salta. (1) All data are preliminary and subject to revision. Floating Debt is not included.
(2) Federal Trust Fund for Regional Infrastructure
(3) Provincial Development Trust Fund
(4) Securities expressed at Residual Value
9
Exports Main exports
900
800
700
Salta 2019 2018
600
500
Ranking position 11 12
400
300
Amount 993 854
200
100
Regional participation 25.2% 21.8%
-
Primary Produ cts Manufactu re o f Manufactu ring of Fuel and ene rgy
National participation 1.52% 1.38% agri cul tura l or igin indu strial orig in
Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on INDEC statistics.
Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on INDEC statistics.
Main destinations
Throughout 2019, exports from the province of Salta grew
16.3% compared to the previous year, amounting to USD 993
UE
million and representing 1.5% of Argentina’s total exports. 4.3%
6.4% Rest of the wo rld
22.0%
The most relevant products exported were unprocessed pulses 7.2% Mercosur
and vegetables–but mostly pulses–, which represented 28.2%
China
of total provincial exports and recorded a 17.2% rise; followed 8.1%
by cereals –corn–, with a 22.5% share and 52.7% growth; and Maghre b a nd Egypt
unmanufactured tobacco, accounting for 14.0% of provincial 9.0% 15.9% ASE AN
exports. Main export destinations were the European Union,
Nafta
Mercosur states, China, Magreb and Egypt and ASEAN states.
13.5%
13.6% Rest of AL ADI
Middle Ea st
Source: Prepared by PwC Argentina based on INDEC statistics.
10Year-on-year
Amount Province vs Nation
variation
Province
Cement Consumption (Mar-2020) activity
353,858 In the productive structure of Salta, tobacco
• Bag 14,226 -6.53% manufacture shows a significant share (28.3% of
14,226
Argentina’s total), along with sugar cane (11.6%) and
49,795 bean (75.3%) manufacture.
• Bulk 1,151 -79.85%
220
1.151
Likewise, other relevant manufactures stand out:
hydrocarbons, wine business (Torrontés), citrus
4,335
Car Patenting (Mar-2020), quantity 220 -73.14% sector (grapefruit) and mining (borates), among
220
others.
86,773
Supermarket Sales (Feb-2020), million pesos 1,598 15.84% According to the latest information available,
1,598
services accounted for 61% with four of its
components reaching 43.3% of the provincial GGP
9,272 share: education (13.9%), public administration
Electricity Demand (Dec-19), in GWh/Centigrade/MW 180 9.15%
180 (11.4%), trade (10.7%) and transport, storage and
communication services (7.3%). In turn, within
industrial products (39% of GGP), the following
Credits*
sectors stand out: primary sector activities
(21.6%), manufacturing industry (9.7%), followed
398,764 by construction (4.9%) and energy, gas and water
• Non-Financial Loans. Personal 13,975 -4.73% (2.8%).
13,975
599,347
• Non-Financial Loans. Cards 7,096 39.72%
7,096
Deposits*
Note cement
Source: Portland Cement Manufacturers Association, https://www.afcp.
695,311 org.ar/copia-de-despacho-total-de-cemento-.
• Current account deposits 6,284 67.64%
6,284 Note Car Patenting
Source: SIOMAA, http://www.siomaa.com/InformeSector/Reportes.
1,580,641 Note Supermarket Sales
• Deposits in the savings bank 18,523 31.94% Source: INDEC, National Directorate of Statistics and Prices of
18,523 Production and Trade.
Note deposits y credits
1,495,428 Source: Central Bank of Argentina.
• Fixed-term deposits 20,147 10.70%
20,147
Note Demand for Electricity:
Source: Ministry of Economy. The distribution company Salta energy
*In national currency and foreign currency, in thousands of pesos, 4th quarter 2019 distribution company is considered
Nation Salta
11Macro Price of Soy and Oil, index 2004=100
285
Monthly Industrial Estimator
Monitors
5.0%
235 0.0%
185 -5.0%
135 -10.0%
-15.0%
85 Soy Oil
-20.0%
35
Apr -18
Oct-18
Apr -19
Oct-19
Nov-18
Dec-18
Nov-19
Dec-19
Aug -18
Sep -18
Aug -19
Sep -19
May-18
May-19
Jul-18
Jul-19
Mar-18
Jun-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jun-19
Jan-20
Feb-19
Feb-20
Oct-12
Apr -13
Oct-13
Nov-12
Dec-12
Nov-13
Dec-13
Aug -12
Sep -12
Aug -13
Sep -13
May-12
May-13
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jun-12
Jan-13
Jun-13
Jan-14
Mar-13
Mar-14
Feb-13
Feb-14
Source: Own calculations based on CBOT and WTI NYMEX Source: Own calculations based on INDEC
Inflation Reserves and Central Bank Assets Foreign Trade
60.0% Reserves, US D mn, end of period Reserves/Assets
CPI* Infla tio n pr osp ects Comercial Balance, US D mn Exports, USD nn Imp orts, USD mn
55.0% 8,000
Pub lic Sector Assets/Assets
50.0%
6,000
45.0% 70% 800 00
40.0% 60% 700 00 4,000
50% 600 00
35.0% 500 00
40% 2,000
30.0% 400 00
30% 300 00
25.0% 0
20% 200 00
20.0% 10% 100 00 -2,000
15.0% 0% 0
Sep -14
Nov-14
Sep -15
Nov-15
Sep -16
Nov-16
Sep -17
Nov-17
Sep -18
Nov-18
Sep -19
Nov-19
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jan-15
Mar-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Sep -15
Sep -16
Sep -17
Sep -18
Sep -19
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Source: Own calculations based on CPI of City of Buenos Aires and UTD Source: Own calculations based on Central Bank of Argentina Source: Own calculations based on INDEC
Exchange rate: Spot and Futures Real exchange rate index: Dec-99=1 Income and Expenses of the National Non-Financial
3.5
Public Sector
134 Bra zil
600 ,00 0
3 United Sta tes Inco me without B CRA and ANSE S Curren t Expenses
114 China
Eur o 500 ,00 0
2.5
94
400 ,00 0
2
74
1.5 300 ,00 0
54
1 200 ,00 0
34 Spo t Jun-20 Aug -20 Oct-20
0.5 100 ,00 0
14
0 0
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Source: Own calculations based on Rofex Source: Own calculations based on the Central Bank of Argentina Source: Own calculations based on Secretary of Finance
12Table of indicators Activity and Prices
Real GDP, var % y/y
CPI Federal Capital, var % y/y
2017
2.7%
26.1%
2018
-2.5%
45.5%
2019
-2.2%
50.6%
Jan-20
-
48.6%
Feb-20
-
46.4%
Mar-20
nd
44.6%
Apr-20
-
42.2%
CPI San Luis, var % y/y 24.3% 50.0% 57.6% 56.7% 55.1% 52.2% 50.0%
Industrial Production, var % y/y 1.9% -14.8% 1.4% -0.3% -1.0% -16.8% nd
International Reserves (end period, USD mn) 55,055 65,806 44,781 44,917 44,791 43,561 43,568
Import Cover (month of reserves) 9.87 12.06 10.94 12.71 14.02 13.72 14.93
Implicit exchange rate (M0 / Reserves) 18.34 21.41 42.33 38.04 38.31 52.62 42.86
$/USD, end period 18.77 37.81 59.90 60.33 62.21 64.47 66.84
External Sector 2017 2018 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Exports, USD mn 58,622 61,781 65,116 4,556 4,324 4,333 4,329
Imports, USD mn 66,930 65,482 49,124 3,534 3,195 3,175 2,918
Comercial Balance, USD mn -8,308 -3,701 15,992 1,022 1,129 1,158 1,411
Currency liquidation by grain exporters, USD mn 21,399 20,202 23,720 1,614 815 1,064 1,524
Laboral* 2017 2018 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Unemployment, country (%) 7.2 9.1 8.9 - - nd -
Unemployment, Greater Buenos Aires (%) 8.4 10.5 10.0 - - nd -
Activity rate(%) 46.4 46.5 47.2 - - nd -
Fiscal** 2017 2018 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Income, $mn 2,578,609 3,382,644 5,023,566 527,284 471,693 443,637 398,659
VAT, $mn 765,336 1,104,580 1,532,597 170,696 141,997 136,170 126,884
Income tax, $mn 555,023 742,052 1,096,521 96,142 93,116 79,462 73,483
Social Security System, $mn 704,177 878,379 1,175,793 151,026 122,536 119,929 100,421
Export Tax, $mn 66,121 114,160 398,312 23,979 21,100 28,999 28,172
Primary expenses, $mn 2,194,291 2,729,251 3,795,834 387,510 365,255 449,646 521,426
Primary result, $mn -404,142 -338,987 -95,122 -3,766 -27,497 -124,728 -228,822
Primary result, $mn 308,048 513,872 914,760 109,203 62,706 50,778 46,288
Fiscal results, $mn -629,050 -727,927 -819,407 -90,818 -67,578 -166,305 -266,050
Financial - Interest rate*** 2017 2018 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Badlar - Privates (%) 23.18 48.57 41.75 36.48 33.52 29.49 20.84
* Quarterly figure. The year corresponds to Q4 Term deposits $ (30-59d Private banks) (%) 21.80 46.22 40.80 35.85 32.94 29.23 21.37
** includes intrasector public interest Mortgages (%) 18.61 47.70 47.51 44.08 38.34 30.59 28.93
*** data 2012/13/14 corresponds to the daily weighted average of Pledge (%) 17.42 24.88 30.54 31.54 24.01 23.88 23.54
December Credit Cards (%) 42.21 61.11 76.28 76.46 73.41 57.46 47.81
**** One moth Future contracts, period average
p: provisional Commodities**** 2017 2018 2019 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20
Soy (USD/Tn) 358.9 342.3 326.9 337.1 325.4 319.3 310.0
Source: INDEC, Secretary of Finance, Ministy of Economy, BCRA,
Corn (USD/Tn) 141.4 145.0 150.9 151.9 148.6 141.7 126.3
AFIP, Ministry of Treasury and Finance of the City of Buenos Aires,
Wheat (USD/Tn) 160.2 182.1 181.5 207.6 201.8 196.6 198.9
CIARA, CBOT, NYMEX
Oil (USD/Barrel) 50.9 64.9 57.0 57.5 50.5 30.4 16.7
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