Enhancing Long Term Planning Processes and Products and Preliminary 2019 Long-Term Demand Forecast - Prepared for: Stakeholder Engagement Thursday ...
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Enhancing Long Term Planning Processes and Products and Preliminary 2019 Long-Term Demand Forecast Prepared for: Stakeholder Engagement Thursday January 31, 2019
the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Agenda
Part A: annual planning outlook:
1) Enhancing long term planning processes and products
2) Long term planning stream
Part B: Preliminary Demand Forecasting:
1) Overview and background
2) 2019 Gross demand assumptions
3) 2019 Net demand assumptions
4) Evolution of long-term forecasting
5) Next steps
2the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Purposes of today’s engagement
• Enhancing Long-Term Planning Processes and Products:
o Continue a two-way conversation on the IESO’s planning strategy
o Provide an overview of the preliminary long-term demand forecast and seek
stakeholder feedback
o Inform and educate on recent changes to the IESO’s planning processes, focusing on
the release of the December 2018 Reliability Outlook
o Seek feedback on improvements to the quarterly Reliability Outlook
• Preliminary 2019 Long-Term Demand Forecast:
o To provide stakeholders with an update on the IESO’s electricity annual planning
outlook
o To support greater transparency in the IESO’s demand forecasting processes
o To provide an overview of key planning assumptions in the preliminary demand
forecasting
o To obtain feedback on assumptions on inputs on the preliminary forecast
3the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Disclaimer
The information and data presented herein does
not represent IESO’s forecast of future demand,
but is preliminary information used to seek
stakeholder input around the long-term demand
forecast process and assumptions.
Further engagements will take place throughout
the year, and the IESO’s forecast of demand and
adequacy will come in Q3 2019.
4the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Opportunities for feedback
• The opportunity to ask questions and provide feedback during
today’s presentation
• Stakeholders are also invited to provide written feedback or
comments on:
o The effectiveness of the meeting
o The contents and questions posed during today’s presentations
o Information you would like to see at future meetings
o The quarterly Reliability Outlook and preliminary demand forecast
o Preliminary 2019 Long-Term Demand Forecast:
Gross demand drivers
How to forecast for energy efficiency programs and codes and standards
How to forecast for embedded generation
• Email us: engagement@ieso.ca
• Today’s presentation materials will be available on our website:
http://www.ieso.ca/Sector-Participants/Engagement-
Initiatives/Engagements/20-Year-Planning-Outlook
5the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
PART A:
ANNUAL PLANNING OUTLOOK
6the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
ENHANCING LONG TERM
PLANNING PROCESSES AND
PRODUCTS
7the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Recent and future Ontario electricity outlooks
• 2016 Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) Ontario Planning
Outlook (OPO):
o Published: September 1, 2016
o http://www.ieso.ca/sector-participants/planning-and-
forecasting/ontario-planning-outlook
• 2018 IESO Technical Planning Conference (TPC):
o Hosted: September 13, 2018
o http://www.ieso.ca/en/Sector-Participants/Planning-and-
Forecasting/Technical-Planning-Conference
• 2019 IESO annual planning outlook:
o Planned to be published: Q3 2019, to aid in identifying anticipated
system requirements in the coming years
• 2020 onwards: IESO annual planning outlook
8the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
IESO’s Planning Activities
• Most of IESO’s planning activities are categorized as Analyses or
Publications and Stakeholder Engagement:
Analyses
• Ensure long-term reliability of Ontario’s power system
• Support operation of the IESO Administered Market
• Inform policy
• Satisfy regulatory obligations and market rule requirements
Publications & Stakeholder Engagement
• Enhance planning transparency
• Share relevant and valued information, data, analysis and expertise with
the sector
• Strengthen stakeholder relationships
• Prepare for the information requirements of the Incremental Capacity
Auction (ICA) and the provision of reliability products and services for the
market
9the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
IESO’s Planning Activities:
Analyses are made of 3 parts: Demand Forecast, Adequacy Assessments and Impact
Analysis. The demand forecast is the starting point of all analyses
Demand Forecast Identifies future
electricity demand
Resource and Transmission Assess if the existing plan can
Adequacy Assessments satisfy anticipated demand
Publications Yes Is plan
sufficient?
No, acquisition needed
Market
Yes mechanism No Evaluates
(ex: global Impact analysis options
available? (ex: regional
capacity planning)
10the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Strategy to Evolve IESO Planning Publications
• There will be two streams of IESO planning publications:
o Operational Planning ensures a viable operating plan (e.g. outages); and
o Long-Term Planning signals resource adequacy needs
•Reliability outlook Annual planning outlook:
•Five year reserve • Annual report with 10 - 20 year horizon
margin requirements • Identifies long-term requirements to
•Ontario planning inform investment and asset management
outlook and modules decisions
•Comprehensive
review of resource Reliability Outlook:
adequacy
• Quarterly report with 18 month horizon,
•Etc. extending out 60 months biannually
• Assesses potential adverse conditions that
might be avoided through adjustment or
coordination of outage plans
Today Future
11the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Planning in public
• The 2018 Technical Planning Conference launched a new era of
planning, enhancing transparency to support market development
• The IESO posted stakeholder responses1 and found 3 themes:
1) Transparency:
o Publish detailed data, assumptions and methodologies that underpin IESO planning assessments to
enable stakeholders to evaluate risks and opportunities using their own assumptions and methods
o Granularity should be at the generator level, similar to NYISO Gold Book
o Transmission projects and limits should be published
2) Consistency:
o Consistent approach around methodologies and conclusions
o Alignment of adequacy assessments including reserve requirements across all planning timeframes
and publications
o Alignment between time frames: 18 month, 60 month and 20 year outlook and reports (Achievable
Potential Study, NERSC)
o Use of standardized terms and techniques, consistent with other jurisdictions and market renewal
3) Engagement:
o Make use of targeted sessions, more frequent meetings and workshops for stakeholders
o Engage earlier than the release of a planning outlook
1 http://www.ieso.ca/en/Sector-Participants/Planning-and-Forecasting/Technical-Planning-Conference 12the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Enhancing the IESO’s Long Term Planning Process
• Strategy:
o Create a new report to provide timely and transparent information, on a
regular basis, to guide investment decisions and market development
• Frequency: Annually
• Timing: Beginning in Q3 2019
o The exact timing of future annual planning outlooks may change to
respond to the development of the ICA
• Horizon: 10 to 20 years
• Scope:
o Information in the annual planning outlook will be informed by the
development of the Bulk Planning Process and coordinated with and
support market development, including the ICA
• The 2019 annual planning outlook will inform capacity requirements in
interim capacity acquisition
13the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Annual planning outlook process
Analyses Publications
Comprehensive Demand
Forecast Planning outlook
Year 1
ICA Pre-Auction
& status of bulk
Report
Resource Adequacy plans
Assessment
Demand Forecast Update
Planning outlook
Year 2
ICA Pre-Auction
& status of bulk
Resource Adequacy Report
plans
Assessment
Demand Forecast Update
Planning outlook
Year 3
ICA Pre-Auction
& status of bulk Report
Resource Adequacy plans
Assessment
14the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Enhancing the IESO’s Long Term Planning Process
The IESO is seeking your input on a staged development approach that prioritizes (1) consistency and high quality data, (2)
requirements for ICA or Regulatory requirements, and (3) Completion of Bulk Planning Process. Potential products in future
years is provided below for discussion purposes
2022
• Incorporation of
bulk planning
2021 process
• Ancillary
Services/Essential • ICA Pre-Auction
2020 Report
Reliability Service
• Zonal Adequacy
Requirements
• Cost Details
2019 (Voltage /
• Avoided Frequency)
• Resource
Costs/Emissions • Detailed
Adequacy Needs
• Natural gas gas/electric
• Nuclear
supply risks interoperability
Refurbishment
Risks • Operability or other fuel risks
Needs (Flexibility
• Marginal Pricing
/ Ramping)
• Reporting of
Transmission
Initiatives and
Activities Ongoing Stakeholder Engagement
15the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Enhancing the IESO’s Long Term Planning Process
To address transparency, the annual planning outlook will provide more detail and methodology that enables stakeholders
to assess risks and opportunities when making asset management or investment decisions, using their own assumptions and
methods
Contents of the 2019 annual planning outlook will include:
• Demand Forecast
• Global Resource Adequacy:
o Reserve Margin Requirement
o Sensitivity Analyses or Scenarios for Reserve Margin Calculations
o Capacity required to maintain adequacy
• Transmission:
o Recap of last five years
o Ongoing Studies and Initiatives
o Future plans (end of life, enabling markets, retirements)
• Planned Outcomes (emissions, marginal cost forecasts)
• Methodology Document
• Excel Data Tables
16the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Improving the Long Term Planning Process
To address consistency, the annual planning outlook will consolidate reports where feasible
• Planning reports that focus on system planning (i.e. not regional
planning) will be consolidated into a single report
• The report satisfies requirements for a Technical Report pursuant to
Section 25.29 (3) of the Electricity Act, 1998
• For 2019, the following IESO reports will be consolidated:
o Ontario Reserve Margin Requirements Report
o Outlook for Technical Planning Conference
• IESO planning also produces reports to comply with NERC and NPCC
requirements, including NERC’s Long Term Reliability Assessment,
NPCC’s Comprehensive/Interim Review of Resource Adequacy, and
NPCC’s Long Range Adequacy Overview
• Where feasible, the IESO will strive for consistency across these studies.
Where models or assumptions differ, an explanation will be provided
by the IESO
17the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Improving the Long Term Planning Process
To address engagement, additional sessions are planned to inform and educate readers in advance of the release of the
annual planning outlook
Scoping This section
Immediately
Full day
following
workshop in Resource Demand
section.
Q2 2019 on adequacy forecast Feedback
methodology
period is open
Transmission Bulk Planning
Stakeholder
assessment
Engagement
18the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Improving the Long Term Planning Process
To address engagement, the Technical Planning Conference will be scheduled shortly after the release of the annual
planning outlook, where we will ask stakeholders to inform us of how they would like to continue engagement throughout
the year
• Ongoing engagement
can include surveys,
smaller focus groups,
webinars and in
person sessions
• The engagement
Technical would likely focus on:
Planning o Details on
methodology and
Conference assumptions
o Areas of
improvement for
the annual
planning outlook
19the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Preliminary 2019 Long-Term Demand Forecast and
annual planning outlook
Q3-Q4 2019
• Publication of 2019 annual
planning outlook
Q2 2019 • Technical Planning
• Public stakeholder Conference
engagement regarding
February methodology to the 2019
annual planning outlook to
• Feedback period from
provide an understanding
stakeholder engagement of at
January least 10 business days
of our existing approach
and methodology
•Public Stakeholder • Incorporate stakeholder
• Inform stakeholders of key
feedback in the 2019 Long-
Engagement of changes in approach and
Term Demand Forecast for
methodology, and identify
Preliminary 2019 Resource Adequacy
areas where additional
Long-Term Demand Assessment (end of February
stakeholder education is
2019), incorporating
Forecast stakeholder feedback
required
(January 31)
Ongoing Stakeholder Engagement
20the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Feedback: Enhancing Long Term Planning Processes
and Products
Written feedback or comments can be sent to engagement@ieso.ca
• Discussion Questions:
o Does the strategy address your feedback from Technical Planning
Conference?
o Are there additional considerations for 2019? For future years?
o Does the proposed approach to evolving planning products satisfy your
requirements? Are there aspects of reporting development that should be
re-prioritised?
21the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
PART B:
PRELIMINARY DEMAND
FORECASTING
22the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) OVERVIEW AND
BACKGROUND
23the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Overview
Preliminary Demand Forecast
Methodology
6 Drivers & Gross
Assumptions Demand
Resource &
Net Revised
3 Drivers &
Assumptions Demand
0 Stakeholder
Engagement Forecast
transmission
adequacy
assessments
Grid
Evolution
Demand
Sensitivity analysis
24the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Role of Long-Term Demand Forecasting
• Electricity demand forecasting anticipates future requirements for the services that electricity provides. Electricity
requirements are affected by many factors, including choice of energy form, technology, equipment purchasing
decisions, behaviour, demographics, population, the economy, energy prices, transportation policy and conservation
o The IESO monitors and interprets these and other factors on an ongoing basis to develop outlooks against which
integrated planning can take place
• Updates to the electricity demand forecast provide context for updated integrated plans, energy efficiency program
planning and supply procurement decisions. Analysis focuses on understanding what is causing the changes in
demand by focusing on the end uses and sector trends
• The IESO is introducing more transparency into our planning processes by providing updated information to the
market and regularly engaging with stakeholders to enable them to make more informed decisions and investments
• The IESO conducts short, medium and long-term integrated power system planning for the province. The demand
for electricity establishes the context for integrated planning as it determines the amount of electricity that must be
served
Forecast Why When
Long Term Annual planning outlook: the IESO forecast of energy and demand for Annually
a 10 - 20 year timeframe which is utilized to inform system adequacy and
investment decisions
Medium Reliability Outlook: the IESO's assessment of the reliability of the Ontario electricity 18-Month: Quarterly
Term system over the medium term 18 & 60 Month: Bi-Annually
Short Term 1-10 Day ahead: the published numbers in the 1 Day Ahead forecast are used to Daily
commit generation Day Ahead as part of the Day Ahead Commitment process. This
improves reliability and helps ensure we will have sufficient generation in real-time
to meet demand
25the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Long-Term Demand Forecast
• Goals:
o The IESO conducts a long-term demand forecast to inform system adequacy and investment
decisions
o The demand forecast is the foundational piece used to initiate the IESO complete annual planning
outlook; It is also one of the core inputs into the Resource Adequacy Outlook, which will be critical
to incorporate into Incremental Capacity Auction (ICA)
o The preliminary demand forecast presented is a baseline forecast or ‘business as usual’ forecast and
is used for retention, comparison, and possible consideration in the creation of scenarios
• Data:
o The demand forecast is developed based on the most recent and best available data at the time
o Where possible other government agencies were leveraged for forecast data, however due to lack of
available required long-term data, many third Party resources or consultants were sourced
o Within the 20 year time horizon, there is greater confidence in the short term (years 1-5), with a
lesser degree of confidence in the long term (years 11-20)
o Assumptions are based on primary and secondary research including:
Industry research
Historical trends
Updates in 2019
2019 annual planning
Changes 2016 OPO
outlook
Base year 2017 2015
Planning horizon 2020-2040 2016-2035
26the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Development Process
Preliminary
Gross Demand: the total demand for electricity services in Ontario
prior to the impact of conservation programs
In-Progress
Net Demand: Ontario Gross Demand minus the impact of
conservation programs
Evolution
Grid Demand: Ontario Net Demand minus the demand met by
embedded generation. It is equal to the energy supplied by the bulk
system to wholesale customers and local distribution companies
through the IESO-administered markets
27the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
How is the long-term load forecast developed
• Analysis for the forecasts are done at the end use level
• End Use Forecaster (EUF) model is an accounting model of equipment
and appliance stock of different efficiency level by end use
• Gross demand includes the effects of naturally occurring conservation,
but not of new energy efficiency programs
Load forecasting process
28the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Preliminary Long-Term Demand Forecast
• Once finalized the, long-term demand forecast which will be
employed for the overall 2019 annual planning outlook will consists of
a net forecast
• Net level refers to the gross demand less the impact of:
o Energy efficiency programs and
o Codes & standards
• The data is broken out into:
o Hourly (8,760 or 8,784 data points per zone per year)
o Long-Term for the 2020 - 2040 period
o At the IESO Zonal Level (10 zones: Northwest, Northeast, Essa,
West, Southwest, Bruce, Toronto, Niagara, East, Ottawa)
29the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Historical demand: 2005 - 2018
• Energy demand has been on a declining trend over the past decade,
driven by changes to the economy, conservation savings, and
embedded generation
165
160
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
155
150
145
140
135
130
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Embedded Generation Consevation Grid Level Demand Net Level Demand Gross Level Demand
Note: Due to data delays 2018 embedded generation values are estimated 30the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2016 OPO vs Actuals: 2016 - 2018
• All forecasts have an inherent degree of forecast error:
o The graph below demonstrates the difference of the 2016 forecast vs. actuals for the 2016 – 2018
period at the net level
o 2018 values are based on current best estimates for embedded generation and weather correction
165
160
Annual Net Level Energy Demand (TWh)
155
150
145
140
135
130
2016 2017 2018
2016 - 2018 Actual 2016 IESO OPO
31the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) 2019 PRELIMINARY
GROSS DEMAND
ASSUMPTIONS
32the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Gross Demand
Gross Demand: the total demand for
electricity services in Ontario prior to the
impact of conservation programs
Net Demand: Ontario Gross Demand minus
the impact of conservation programs
Grid Demand: Ontario Net Demand minus the demand
met by embedded generation. It is equal to the energy
supplied by the bulk system to wholesale customers and
local distribution companies through the IESO-
administered markets
33the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
The IESO Gross demand forecast considers key drivers to
derive the forecast
• Key drivers:
o Change in number and type of residential households
o Change in amount of commercial floor space
o Change in industrial output/activities
• Electricity price and natural gas price forecast:
o Consumer react to changes in price. High electricity price may apply downward
pressure on demand while, mild or temporary price relief is less likely to cause
the demand to go back up again
Short term behavioural response to price that reflects changes in equipment utilization
without changing the equipment itself is captured through the use of behavioural price
elasticity
The range of the elasticity is from -0.25 to -0.1 and captures behaviour such as lowering
thermostats and turning off lights and computer monitors
o Rate design impacts - annualized price effect of ICI is included in the sector price
forecast
• Policy Environment:
o Climate change policy and initiatives
o Economic development and industrial policy
34the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Gross Demand: Comparison of 2019 annual planning outlook
key assumptions
• Only factors that have significant change since the previous
outlook are included in the key assumptions table on the
following slide
• The following slides will explain the development of the
gross demand forecast and the associated assumption and
details
• IESO seeking feedback on all factors and assumptions
35the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Gross Demand: Comparison of 2019 annual planning outlook
key assumptions
2019 annual 2019 annual planning outlook
Sector 2016 OPO planning outlook Years 1 - 5 Years 6 - 10 Years 11 - 21
comparable (2020 - 2024) (2025 - 2029) (2030 - 2040)
Floor space grows by Floor space grows by
1) Commercial floor 736 M sqft, 21.9 % or 587 M sqft, 17.7 % or Floor space grows by Floor space grows by Floor space grows by
space 1.2 % / yr 1.0 % / yr 202 M sqft, 6.0 % or 150 M sqft, 4.2 % or 359 M sqft, 9.7 % or
from 2018 – 2035 from 2018 – 2035 1.2 % / yr 0.8 % / yr 0.8 % / yr
Electric vehicles grows
Electric vehicles grows Electric vehicles grows Electric vehicles grows Electric vehicles grows
2) Electric Vehicles by
by 978 k, or 24 % / yr by 825 k, or 21 % / yr by 157 k, 298 % or by 480 k, 92 % or
(EVs) 310 k, 147 % or
from 2018 – 2035 from 2018 – 2035 31.8 % / yr, 6.1 % / yr,
19.9 % / yr,
to 210 k To 1 M
to 520 k
Households grows by Households grows by Households grows by
3) Residential
1.0 M, 18 % or 1 % / yr 1.3 M, 24 % or 1.3 % / yr Households grows by Households grows by 644 k, 10.0 % or
households 440 k, 7.8 % or 1.5 % / yr 375 k, 6.2 % or 1.2 % / yr
from 2018 – 2035 from 2018 – 2035 0.9 % / yr
Mining sector continues
Flat load
4) Industrial Load to grow Mining sector continues to grow
from 2018 – 2035
from 2018 – 2035
GO Rail electrification GO Rail electrification
& LRT projects as & 7 LRT projects as
GO Rail system
5) Transit planned by 2016 planned by 2016
First 6 LRTs in service electrification as well as No additional projects
+ 548 GWh annual + 1,403GWh annual
2 LRT phases
energy demand energy demand
from 2018 – 2035 from 2018 – 2035
Dramatic increase due Dramatic increase due
to greenhouse load in to greenhouse load in
6) Agriculture Flat load 2.2 TWh Flat load 3.9 TWh Flat load 4.0 TWh
southern Ontario southern Ontario
from 2018 – 2035 in 2029 in 2040
4.0 TWh + 0.8 TWh to 3.9 TWh
from 2018 – 2035 in 2024
36the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) Commercial floor space
• IESO conducted an analysis of commercial floor space with the support
of third-party consultant
• Forecasted to be 190 million square feet less (4.6 %) by 2035 than 2016
OPO:
o Equivalent to about 3 TWh, all else being equal
o Differences attributed to:
A continuing trend of decreasing square footage per worker achieved
through alternative workplace strategies and more efficient building
design, particularly evident in major urban locations
Shifts in consumer purchasing behaviour are opening up opportunities
for new forms of retailing, such as e-commerce
As the shift in retailing changes the retail real estate landscape, e-
commerce and other technological advances are also affecting the
industrial real estate market, with increasing demand for large
warehousing, logistics and distribution hubs to support online shopping
as well as data centres
37the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) Commercial floor space
4.1
Years 11 – 21
Floor space growth
10 %,
4.0
0.8 % / yr
Annual Commercial Floor Space Availability
3.9
Years 6 – 10
(Billion Square Feet)
3.8
Floor space growth
4 %,
0.8 % / yr
3.7
Years 1 – 5
Floor space growth
3.6 6 %,
1.2 % / yr
3.5
3.4
3.3
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast 2016 IESO OPO
38the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) Commercial floor space: assumptions
Low Case Proposed Case High Case
Years 1 - 5 Years 6 - 10 Years 11 - 21 Years 1 - 5 Years 6 - 10 Years 11 - 21 Years 1 - 5 Years 6 - 10 Years 11 - 21
(2020 - 2024) (2025 - 2029) (2030 - 2040) (2020 - 2024) (2025 - 2029) (2030 - 2040) (2020 - 2024) (2025 - 2029) (2030 - 2040)
Floor space Floor space Floor space Floor space Floor space Floor space Floor space Floor space Floor space
grows by 4.7 % grows by 3.3 % grows by 7.3 % grows by 6.0 % grows by 4.2 % grows by 9.2 % grows by 7.6 % grows by 6.4 % grows by 14.5 %
over the period over the period over the period over the period over the period over the period over the period over the period over the period
(avg 0.9 % / yr) (avg 0.6 % / yr) (avg 0.7 % / yr) (avg 1.2 % / yr) (avg 0.8 % / yr) (avg 0.9 % / yr) (avg 1.5 % / yr) (avg 1.3 % / yr) (avg 1.5 % / yr)
3.5 billion sqft 3.6 billion sqft 3.9 billion sqft 3.6 billion sqft 3.7 billion sqft 4.1 billion sqft 3.7 billion sqft 3.9 billion sqft 4.5 billion sqft
4.5
Annual Commercial Floor Space Availability
4.3
(Billion Square Feet)
4.1
3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - High Demand Case Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Reference Case
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Low Demand Case
39the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Electric vehicles: assumptions
• Globally the early adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in many
jurisdictions has been driven by government policy
o The main markets by volume (China) and sales share (Norway) have the strongest policy push
• IESO’s approach on EV electricity demand forecast:
o Focuses on potential electricity energy demand and peak impact for the purposes of electricity
demand forecast and power system planning
o Based on available Ontario specific data such as EV sales and registration data
o Scenarios developed from various annual growth rate of new sales
o Comparable with EV outlooks from various organizations
• A wide range of EV projections from various organizations, e.g.
forecasts of EV new sale market shares vary from 1% to 28% in 2020,
and from 1% to 70% in 2030
• The IESO’s estimates are informed by EV information from various
organizations:
o International Energy Agency
o Navigant Research
o Bloomberg New Energy Finance
o Boston Consulting Group
o Simon Fraser University
o Ministry of Transportation of Ontario
40the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Electric vehicles
• For electricity demand forecast and power system planning
purposes, it is estimated that EV new sales will continue to
grow moderately in the next decade and stabilize thereafter
• Recent changes of EV policy may result in a declining
impact on EV adoption:
o Ontario Electric Vehicle Incentive Program discontinued
in September 2018
o US announced freezing Corporate Average Fuel
Economy (CAFE) standards in 2018, leading to impacts
to supply of new EVs in Ontario
• EVs on Ontario roads will reach about 1 million around
2040 and the annual charging demand is about 3.4 TWh
41the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Electric vehicles
Years 11 – 21
10 EV count growth
92 %,
6 % / yr
9
Annual Units in Operation (100,000 Vehicles)
8
7
Years 6 – 10
6 EV count growth
148 %,
20 % / yr
5
4
Years 1 – 5
3 EV count growth
298 %,
2
32 % / yr
1
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast 2016 IESO OPO
42the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Electric vehicles: assumptions & sensitivities
Low Demand Case Proposed Case High Demand Case
Years 1-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-21 Years 1-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-21 Years 1-5 Years 6-10 Years 11-21
(2020-2024) (2025-2029) (2030-2040) (2020-2024) (2025-2029) (2030-2040) (2020-2024) (2025-2029) (2030-2040)
10% annual increase in EV sales 20% annual increase in EV sales 35% annual increase in EV sales
*170 k 320 k 500 k 210 k 520 k 1,000 k 280 k 980 k 2,300 k
vehicles by 2024 vehicles by 2029 vehicles by 2040 vehicles by 2024 vehicles by 2029 vehicles by 2040 vehicles by 2024 vehicles by 2029 vehicles by 2040
2.4
2.2
Annual Units in Operation (Million Vehicles)
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - High Demand Case Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Reference Case
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Low Demand Case
* Note: the values presented are for the period ending 43the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
3) Residential households
• IESO conducted analysis on residential households by data
supported by third-party consultant
• Forecasted to be 150,000 more households (2.3 %) by 2035
than 2016 OPO:
o Equivalent to about 1.5 TWh, all else being equal
o Variance factors include increased net migration
o The forecast assumes increasing multi-residential
households is increasing relative to single-family
households, as seen in the Toronto, Ottawa, Southwest
and Niagara IESO Zones
44the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
3) Residential households
Years 11 – 21
7.1 Household growth
9 %,
0.9 % / yr
Annual Residential Sector Household Availability (Million
6.9
6.7
Years 6 – 10
Household growth
6.5 6 %,
1.2 % / yr
Units)
6.3
Years 1 – 5
Household growth
8 %,
6.1 1.5 % / yr
5.9
5.7
5.5
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast 2016 IESO OPO
45the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
4) Industrial assumptions
• With the exception of mining, most of the industries are relatively flat
o the mining sub-sector is forecasted to continue to grow
22
20
18
16
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast 2016 IESO OPO
* Includes impact of November 26, 2018 announcement of closure of GM Oshawa assembly plant 46the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
4) Industrial assumptions
22
20
18
16
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Mining Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Primary Metal Manufacturing
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Paper Manufacturing Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Automotive Vehicle Manufacturing
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Chemical Manufacturing
* Includes impact of November 26, 2018 announcement of closure of GM Oshawa assembly plant 47the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
5) Transit assumptions
• Energy demand and timing of transit projects have been updated from
most recent available information
• Metrolinx’s plan considers GO Rail system electrification in service by
2025, which will add about 1.1 TWh electricity demand. Various LRT
projects will add about 0.3 TWh
1.4
1.2
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Metrolinx GO Rail System Electrification Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Light Rail Transit Projects
2016 IESO OPO
48the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
5) Transit assumptions (continued)
• The expected in service schedule is summarized from public
information of respective projects as of January 2019
Project 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
GO Rail system electrification
Phase 1/1
(GTA)
Hamilton LRT (Hamilton) Phase 1/1
ION LRT (Waterloo / Kitchener) Phase 1/2 Phase 2/2
Hurontario - Main LRT Phase 1/1
(Mississauga)
Confederation LRT (Ottawa) Phase 1/2 Phase 2/2
Eglinton crosstown (Toronto) Phase 1/1
Sheppard east (Toronto) Phase 1/1
Finch west (Toronto) Phase 1/1
49the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
6) Agricultural sector: assumptions
• Leamington area has seen lots of load connection requests due to greenhouse growth (vegetable and cannabis
greenhouses) that is expected to increase the region’s winter peak
• A 500+ MW winter load growth is expected in 2020 and beyond
• Forecast is supported by local/regional studies
• In 2017, summer peak in IESO West zone is ~3,000 MW, winter peak is ~2,000 MW. The potential increase in
load due to greenhouse expansion is approximately 25 % of IESO West zone’s winter peak
• The IESO continues to monitor other agricultural regions in Ontario (e.g. Hamilton, Niagara, etc.) for possible
inclusion in a future IESO annual planning outlook
3.9
3.7
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast 2016 IESO OPO
50the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Electricity price assumptions
• The IESO requires a pricing assumptions for the forecast. The following
assumptions have been made:
o Assumes electricity prices as was updated in the 2017 electricity
price forecast, with an adjustment for the later part of the price
outlook to reflect ICA costing methodology:
Residential electricity price forecast includes the Ontario Fair
Hydro Plan
Commercial electricity price forecast assumes a delivery cost
based on the General Service < 50 MW rate class from the OEB
yearbook
The industrial rate forecast is a 55:45 blend of distribution
embedded industrial rates and direct connect industrial rates.
The distribution rate is based on the historical unit rate for the
General Service > 50 kW, Large User (> 5,000 kW) and Sub
Transmission rate classes from the OEB yearbook
51the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Natural gas price assumptions
• The IESO requires a pricing assumptions for the forecast. The following
assumptions have been made:
o Assumes natural gas prices as was updated in Sproule’s Dawn price
forecast for October 2018
o Sproule’s October 2018 natural gas price outlook at Dawn is
projected to be below $ 4.00 / MMBtu, at an average unit rate of
about $ 3.90 / MMBtu (in real 2018 $)
Significantly lower than the December 2015 outlook which
assumed an average unit rate of about $ 5.30 / MMBtu
(in real 2018 $)
o Natural gas retail rate forecast is based on a Dawn price forecast for
the gas supply charge and Union Gas southern M1 and M2 rates for
residential and commercial delivery charges, respectively
The industrial delivery charge is assumed to be a rate below the
commercial rate of about 2 ¢ / m3
52the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Price sensitivity due to carbon pricing
• Electricity and natural gas prices are an important element to the
demand forecast as consumers’ response to varying price signals may
dictate which fuel they use for applications such as space or water
heating
• Natural Gas Prices: the natural gas prices included in the forecast did
not include any carbon pricing. Sensitivity analysis was performed,
which indicated that inclusion of a carbon price did not materially
impact fuel switching and resulting forecast electricity demand
• Electricity Rates: the electricity rates included in the forecast were
based on the previous Supply/Demand Outlook, which included
carbon pricing in the form of Cap and Trade. However, the impact of
carbon pricing on electricity bills is minimized in the near-term due to
the 25% bill reduction applied to residential customers through the
Ontario Fair Hydro Plan
• The forecast will be updated to reflect the most up-to-date carbon
pricing policy applied at the time
53the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Demand by sector
• Over the forecasting horizon, commercial sector grows the most mainly due to
the structural shift of employment from manufacturing sector to service sector
• The second notable sector is agriculture growth mainly in Southern Ontario
190
180
170
160
150
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation (EVs & Transit) Agriculture Other
* Others = Remote communities, Generator Demand, Water treatment, and Street Lighting 54the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Major gross forecast updates of 2019 forecast vs 2016
forecast
• Major factors which contributed to the change include:
o Technical assumptions regarding residential-sector heating end-uses:
the profiling of heating demand has been updated leading to higher
winter peak demands
o Agricultural growth: increased electricity demand in the
agricultural sector in southern Ontario due to increased number of
growers, greenhouses and adoption of growth lights
• Near term highlights: years 1 - 5 (2020 - 2024):
o Summer peak is relatively similar to 2016 OPO between 2020 and
2023. Energy and winter peak is forecasted to be about 4% higher
than 2016 OPO forecast by 2024 mainly due to greenhouses and
adjustments to residential heating load
• Mid-term term highlights: years 6 - 10 (2025 - 2029):
o Energy, summer peak and winter peak is forecasted to be 9%, 5%
and 8% higher than 2016 OPO forecast by 2029 mainly due to
absence of committed EE programs post 2020
55the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Preliminary gross demand energy forecast comparison
Subject to change
• Gross demand is the total demand for electricity services in Ontario
prior to the impact of conservation programs, and embedded
generation
184
181
178
175
Annual Energy Demand (TWh)
172
169
166
163
160
157
154
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Gross Demand Forecast
56the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Preliminary gross demand seasonal peak forecast comparison
Subject to change
30,500
29,500
Annual Seasonal System Peak Demand (MW)
28,500
27,500
26,500
25,500
24,500
23,500
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Gross Demand Summer Peak Forecast Preliminary 2019 Gross Demand Winter Peak Forecast
57the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Feedback: Gross forecast drivers
Written feedback or comments can be sent to engagement@ieso.ca
• Discussion Questions:
o What should the IESO consider in the assumptions for the gross forecast
drivers:
Commercial floor space
Electric vehicles
Residential households
Industrial load
Transit projects
Agricultural load
Other: should the IESO consider drivers other than those presented?
58the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
3) 2019 PRELIMINARY NET
DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS
59the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Net Demand
Gross Demand: the total demand for
electricity services in Ontario prior to the
impact of conservation programs
Net Demand: Ontario Gross Demand minus
the impact of conservation programs
Grid Demand: Ontario Net Demand minus the demand
met by embedded generation. It is equal to the energy
supplied by the bulk system to wholesale customers and
local distribution companies through the IESO-
administered markets
60the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Net Demand: Comparison of 2019 annual planning outlook
key assumptions
2019 annual 2019 annual planning outlook
planning
Driver 2016 OPO Years 1 - 5 Years 6 - 10 Years 11 - 21
outlook
comparable (2020 - 2024) (2025 - 2029) (2030 - 2040)
Program savings Program savings Program savings
Program persistence persistence persistence
savings continue to decay, continue to decay, continue to decay,
1) Energy Annual energy 11.3 TWh in 2024. 6.5 TWh in 2029. 0.1 TWh in 2040.
persistence
Efficiency (EE) savings of 15.8 Seeking input on Seeking input on Seeking input on
continue to assumptions for assumptions for assumptions for
Programs TWh in 2035
decay, 1.5 TWh EE for 2019 -2020 EE for 2019 -2020 EE for 2019 -2020
in 2035 CFF and beyond CFF and beyond CFF and beyond
CFF CFF CFF
Annual energy Annual energy Annual energy Annual energy
savings of 14.4 savings of 9.2 savings of 11.5 savings of 15.3
Annual energy TWh in 2035. To TWh in 2024. To TWh in 2029. To TWh in 2040. To
2) Codes &
savings of 14.9 be updated to be updated to be updated to be updated to
Standards
TWh in 2035 reflect changes in reflect changes in reflect changes in reflect changes in
federal and federal and federal and federal and
provincial C&S provincial C&S provincial C&S provincial C&S
1,000 MW peak 1,400 MW peak
3) Industrial
reduction reduction 1,400 MW peak reduction
Conservation
from 2018 – from 2018 – from 2018 – 2040
Initiative (ICI)
2035 2035
61the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) Energy efficiency: assumptions
• The previous 2016 OPO required a forecast of conservation annual
savings of 30 TWh in 2032:
o From programs implemented since 2005
o Of which 16 TWh was expected to be achieved from EE programs and 14 TWh was
expected to be achieved from Codes and Standards
• The 2015 - 2020 CFF is
o higher than the forecast in 2016 OPO and
o expected to deliver more than its target of 8.7 TWh annual energy savings in 2020
• Current assumptions used to forecast EE programs include:
2015 -2017
2015 -2017 2018
2018 2018-2020 2020+
Verified: Forecasted: Forecasted:
Seeking
5.7 TWh 1.1 TWh 4.2 TWh
feedback
persisting to persisting to persisting to
and input
2020 2020 2020
• Note: verified programs savings decay over time once measures installed
62the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) Energy efficiency: assumptions
14
12
10
Annual Energy Savings (TWh)
8
6
4
2
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Historical Program Savings (2006 - 2017) Forecast Program Savings (2018 - 2020)
63the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
1) Energy efficiency: assumptions (continued)
• In addition to IESO managed EE programs, additional non-
ratepayer funded EE programs, administrated via
organization such as the Toronto Atmospheric Fund and
Community Energy Plans* which contribute to energy
efficiency savings
• Federal Government Low Carbon Economy Fund programs
announced in 2017 may contribute to electricity energy
efficiency ($420m)
* External EE program forecasts are not incorporated in current demand forecast due to limited data. 64
The IESO is seeking input from public regarding forecast datathe values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Codes & Standards
• Building Codes:
o Ontario building codes requires new and renovated buildings to
meet certain energy efficiency levels, updated approximately every 5
years
• Equipment Standards:
o Minimum energy performance standards requires all products sold
to comply with a minimum energy efficiency levels, results in gains
in household appliances and other products for consumers and
businesses
• Savings estimates are based on the expected improvement in building
codes and specified end uses equipment standards
• An effective energy efficiency tool that embeds energy savings in
buildings and equipment upgrades through regulation and requires no
incremental ratepayer investment
• Savings from codes and standards are forecasted to be approximately 15
TWh by 2040
65the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Codes & Standards
• The IESO estimates savings to be attributed to Codes and Standards by
comparing the reference case demand forecast to the forecast adjusted for
the impacts of regulations
• Generally, the regulations become more stringent over time which lead to
more efficient products and buildings. Based on the regulation effective
time, the energy saving analyses were performed by the following
categories:
o Existing and committed equipment standards: regulations are already in effective or have been
announced with future effective dates
o Future equipment standards: assumed increases of efficiency level
o Existing building codes: regulations are already in effective
o Future building codes: assumed more stringent energy efficiency requirements
• The IESO reviews and monitors the existing and committed regulations.
There is higher confidence to achieve the estimated savings
• The anticipated efficiency level improvements of future codes and
standards are considered and the resulted savings are estimated. They are
based on the third-party studies and general trends. Future regulations
may deviate from the assumptions and lead to higher or lower savings
66the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
2) Codes & Standards
16
14
12
Annual Energy Savings (TWh)
10
8
6
4
2
0
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Future Equipment Standards Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Existing & Committed Equipment Standards
Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Future Building Codes Preliminary 2019 Demand Forecast - Existing Building Codes
2016 IESO OPO
67the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
3) Industrial Conservation Initiative: method
• The ICI program is a function of Regulation 429/04
• Forecast methodology:
o is retrospectively based on 2017 system peaks and reported demand reductions:
results become available in Q4 of subsequent year, thus 2018 reported results are unavailable
program rule changes were implemented for 2017, thus 2015 - 2016 reported results are not applicable
includes transmission connected customer actual data and distribution connected customer estimated data due to lack of availability
o to account for activity outside of top 5 peak demand hours and incorporate a profile of reduction instead of just
demand reduction during a single hour
• Methodology also needed to account for peak potentially occurring during both summer and winter
seasons:
o A total of 10 days were given forecast ICI reductions: 5 days with a peak reduction of approx. 1,400 MW (1,000 MW in
2016 OPO) and 5 days with 700 MW (325 MW in 2016 OPO) peak demand reduction. This is based on trends seen in
2017
o A generic hourly ICI profile for peak days was developed based on reductions observed in directly-connected Class A
customers
o The timing of these 10 days depends on the size of the summer peak relative to the winter peak for that year. Years
were separated into 3 categories:
Category Criteria ICI Applies To:
Three or more of the top five peak days occur in the
Clear Summer Top 10 summer days
summer.
All five peak days are in the winter. The fifth-ranked
Clear Winter Top 10 winter days
winter peak day is 5 % higher than the summer peak.
68the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
3) Industrial Conservation Initiative: assumptions
• ICI Forecast Assumptions:
o The ICI reductions are assumed for the duration of the forecast
o Peak demand grid impact remains at 1,400 MW for the top 5 days and 700 MW and
the next 5 highest days
o Below shows the profile of ICI impact during a typical ICI day
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
Hourly Load Impact (GW)
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4
-1.5
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
September 25, 2017
69the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
3) Industrial Conservation Initiative: sensitivities
• The current demand forecast assumes the same level of uptake for all
years in the planning period (20 years):
o A total of 10 days were given forecast ICI reductions: 5 days with a peak reduction of
approx. 1,400 MW and 5 days with 700 MW peak demand reduction
• Possible low and high demand cases revolve around a range of possible
changes to many factors:
o Participant eligibility
o Demand reduction criteria
o Demand reduction thresholds
o Pricing structure
o Growth in energy storage
o Ability of consumers to predict annual system peaks
o Others
• The IESO is seeking stakeholder engagement feedback on how to
forecast Industrial Conservation Initiative going forward
70the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Feedback: Energy Efficiency Programs, Codes and
Standards and Industrial Conservation Initiative
Written feedback or comments can be sent to engagement@ieso.ca;
• Discussion Questions:
o What considerations should the IESO incorporate in forecasting:
Energy Efficiency Program savings?
□ What considerations should be applied for 2019 – 2020?
□ What considerations should be applied post-2020?
□ How to incorporate non-funded IESO program and is there data to support the analysis?
Codes and Standards savings?
□ What consideration should be made towards existing vs future savings?
Industrial Conservation Initiative savings?
□ What assumptions should be considered for future ICI savings in the long term forecast?
□ Is there an ability for distributors to provide hourly Class A customer data?
Note, monthly data is currently provided
□ Is there access to market intelligence on the volume of battery storage that is being stalled?
71the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
6) EVOLUTION OF LONG-
TERM DEMAND
FORECASTING
72the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Evolution of Demand Forecasting
Preliminary
Gross Demand: the total demand for electricity services in Ontario
prior to the impact of conservation programs
In-Progress
Net Demand: Ontario Gross Demand minus the impact of
conservation programs
Evolution
Grid Demand: Ontario Net Demand minus the demand met by
embedded generation. It is equal to the energy supplied by the bulk
system to wholesale customers and local distribution companies
through the IESO-administered markets
73the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Evolution
• Currently in the initial and exploratory stages evolving demand
forecasting; in preparing for the ICA
• Enhancing statistical forecasts will aid in moving towards grid
demand forecasts would make it easier for the IESO to be able to
compare performance of forecast against actual data and make
necessary adjustments in the model if issues are noticed over
time, as well as better quantify forecast uncertainty:
o Parallel enhancements will also be made to gross and net
demand forecasts
• Further evolving the forecast from net demand grid demand -
may better illustrate the difference and commonality between the
annual planning outlook and the Reliability Outlook; two
documents produced for different purposes
• The successful evolution will be dependent on improved quality
of data
74the values reported in this presentation are for discussion purposes only and are in draft form
Embedded Generation
• IESO contracted resources: Forecast based on IESO contract
resources. This data includes a high degree of certainty; including
fuel specific generation profiles:
o Capacity by fuel (solar, wind, biomass, hydro and natural gas)
o Projected capacity combined with region specific production profiles
o Results in projected production
• Non-Contracted resources: Apply high-level aggregated data
received by the IESO from LDC. This data is less granular and less
certain:
o FIT and MicroFIT program: With the end of these programs the changes to non-
contracted resources will connect with distribution systems therefore the IESO
visibility will decrease
o Net IESO-contracted program: Should there be increased uptake, additional data
and insight will be required in order to forecast appropriately
o Behind the meter generation (BMG): As customers react to electricity prices there
may be increased BMG occurring therefore additional data would be required to
support accurate forecasting
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