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BRIEFING PAPER
Number 09147, 25 February 2021
Ethiopia: situation in By Louisa Brooke-Holland
Tigray
Summary
The UK Government is calling for unfettered humanitarian access and an end to the violence
in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. Millions require food assistance, thousands have been
displaced and there are reports of killings, sexual violence, and serious human rights abuses.
Federal forces are fighting against the forces of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF),
which dominated Ethiopia’s ruling coalition for almost three decades. The conflict is further
complicated by the presence of neighbouring Eritrean forces (denied by Eritrea). The Ethiopian
Government has severely restricted access to and within Tigray for humanitarian workers and
journalists. Gathering verifiable information of the situation on the ground is severely limited
by communications blackouts. Elections are scheduled for June 2021. The conflict has raised
questions about the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who was awarded the Nobel
Prize in 2019 only a year after taking office. The reignition of a border dispute with Sudan
threatens to broaden the conflict.
Contents
The situation in Tigray 2
Humanitarian situation “continues to rapidly deteriorate” 3
Refugees 4
Killings and sexual violence 4
Eritrean involvement 5
A widening conflict? Border dispute with Sudan 6
UK Government response 6
Background to the crisis 7
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2 Ethiopia: situation in Tigray
The situation in Tigray
Months of tension between the new government of Abiy Ahmed, in power since 2018,
and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), who had dominated Ethiopian politics
since 1991, came to a head in November 2020. Abiy ordered a military offensive against
regional forces in Tigray region, the powerbase of the TPLF. Despite declaring an end to
operations on 28 November, fighting has not stopped.
Map of Ethiopia highlighting Tigray region 1
1
UN OCHA Ethiopia - Tigray region humanitarian update 19 February 2021. The map states “The
boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or
acceptance by the United Nations. © OCHA”.3 Commons Library Briefing, 25 February 2021
Humanitarian situation “continues to rapidly
deteriorate”2 “The lack of free
and sustained
The UK Government, the UN and NGOs are calling for unfettered
access makes it
humanitarian access to the region for the estimated millions in need. The extremely
Ethiopian Government has restricted movement within and access to Tigray challenging to
region. Despite an agreement on lifting some restrictions in early February determine the
(announced by the World Food Programme 3), and some clearances given actual impact of the
for international staff, the UN continues to report that assistance remains conflict on civilians”
limited because of the fluid security situation and bureaucratic constraints.
Much of the region remains inaccessible. 4 Estimates of those in need James Duddridge,
therefore varies: Minister for Africa,
24 February 2021
• 4.5 million are need of emergency assistance, according to the Tigray
Emergency Coordination Centre (the ECC meets weekly in Tigray’s
capital, Mekelle). This includes 2.2 million displaced persons. 5
• 3.8 million of Tigray’s roughly 6 million people need humanitarian assistance and 80
per cent of the region is cut off from humanitarian assistance, the head of the
Ethiopian Red Cross Society said on 10 February. Abera Tola warned tens of
thousands could starve to death. 6
• The World Food Programme (WFP) currently estimates 2.5 to 3 million people
require emergency food assistance in Tigray region. 7
• The UK Government says the UN estimates 1.3 million people affected by the
conflict need humanitarian assistance, on top of an existing caseload of 1 million
people in the region, but that lack of access makes it extremely challenging to
determine the actual numbers. 8
Humanitarian access to Tigray region as of 20 February 2021 9
UN OCHA, the UN Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs,
posts regular situation updates. These
report ongoing fighting, violence
against civilians, the presence of various
armed actors and bureaucratic obstacles
limiting access.
2
Ethiopia – Tigray region humanitarian update, UN OCHA, 4 February 2021
3
“Statement on humanitarian assistance and food and nutrition security in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”, World
Food Programme, 6 February 2021
4
Ethiopia – Tigray region humanitarian update, UN OCHA, 19 February 2021
5
Ethiopia – Tigray region humanitarian update, UN OCHA, 7 January 2021
6
“Ethiopian Red Cross says 80 per cent of Tigray cut off from aid”, AFP, 10 February 2021
7
“Statement on humanitarian assistance and food and nutrition security in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”, World
Food Programme, 6 February 2021
8
PQ154570, 24 February 2021
9
Source: UN OCHA Ethiopia - Tigray region humanitarian update 19 February 2021.4 Ethiopia: situation in Tigray
Box 1: A potential famine?
The Famine Early Warning Systems network has a standardised metric for measuring food insecurity. Its
classification system (the IPC) has five levels, ranging from (1) minimal through to stressed (2), crisis (3),
emergency (4) and then finally famine (5).
In January 2021 the FEWS network placed Tigray at crisis level (phase 3) but warned that, given limited
access for humanitarian actors and traders, coupled with dwindling or depleted food stocks, emergency
(4) outcomes are expected to emerge across more extensive areas of central and eastern Tigray.
Refugees crossing into Sudan say harvests have been looted.
However, Africa specialist Alex de Waal, writing for BBC News, points out that the IPC system is
dependent on data; the UN can only declare famine when it has certain very specific data. De Waal
suggests governments often “conceal or manipulate data” to avoid getting a famine designation, and
argues “there is a history of Ethiopian governments hiding their famines”. 10
Media restrictions limiting accessing to information
The Ethiopian Government has also placed restrictions on media access to Tigray. When
the offensive began in November the Government imposed a communications blackout.
Access to internet and telecommunications remains restricted. Ethiopia analyst Alex de
Waal observes both sides are fighting a “war of words”, each blaming the other for
starting the conflict. BBC News examined misinformation about the situation on social
media during the early stages of the conflict. A Washington Post study of social media
posts between November and January concluded “by blocking communications and
access to Tigray, the government helped create conditions where disinformation and
misinformation can thrive”. 11 Journalists have also been targeted - an Al Jazeera report on
the battle to control information chronicles the ways in which press freedom, initially
championed by Abiy, is being curtailed in Ethiopia.
Refugees
The conflict between the Government and TPLF regional forces prompted an exodus of
Tigrayans from the region. More than 27,000 people fled to neighbouring Sudan in the
first two weeks of conflict. UNHCR now estimates there are over 60,000 Tigrayan
refugees in Sudan (as of 20 February 2021). UNHCR says arrivals have walked for 10 to 15
days to reach the border, with new arrivals reporting incidents of rape and looting.
Many more people are internally displaced, adding to the tens of thousands displaced
before the conflict began.
There are particular concerns about the safety of the estimated 96,000 Eritrean refugees.
The UNHCR has not been able to access two camps since November and there have been
reports of Eritrean soldiers forcibly returning people to Eritrea. Following a trip to the
country the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi said that he met refugees
who “spoke of infiltration of armed actors in the camps, of killings, abductions and also
some forced return to Eritrea at the hands of Eritrean forces present in the areas”.
Killings and sexual violence
The UK and UN officials are calling for an independent investigation of allegations of
human rights violations in Tigray. 12
10
“Viewpoint: From Ethiopia's Tigray region to Yemen, the dilemma of declaring a famine”, BBC News, 7
February 2021
11
“In Ethiopia’s digital battle over the Tigray region, facts are casualties”, Washington Post, 5 February 2021
12
HL12270, 1 February 2021; HL11640, 14 January 20215 Commons Library Briefing, 25 February 2021
UN OCHA says “extremely concerning” reports of atrocities against civilians have
emerged, including killings, lootings, and sexual violence. 13
Senior UN officials are raising concerns about ethnic-based and sexual violence across the
region.
The Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila
Patten, says she is greatly concerned about the high number of reported rapes in Mekelle
and disturbing allegations of “individuals allegedly forced to rape members of their own
family”. The Special Adviser of the Secretary-General on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice
Wairimu Nderitu, says she is alarmed at the “continued escalation of ethnic violence”
amid reports of civilians being targeted based on their ethnicity and region. Both are
calling for an independent and impartial investigation into these allegations.
Reports of atrocities and potential war crimes are filtering through, albeit caveated with
warnings that restrictions on communications means verifying accounts is hard to do. In
February the Telegraph reported it had seen a video of what appears to be a war crime
carried out by the Ethiopian army at the Debre Abay monastery in central Tigray. 14 On the
same day The Times reported an AP story of an account of an alleged massacre at the
Church of St Mary of Zion in Axum in late November by Eritrean troops. 15 Eritrea’s
Government has denied any involvement. 16
Eritrean involvement
Despite denials by the Eritrean government, there have been many reports of Eritrean
forces on the ground in Tigray in support of the Ethiopian Government. 17
The UK Government says it is “concerned by involvement of Eritrean forces in hostilities
throughout the Tigray region… and the growing weight of credible evidence of their
involvement in human rights violations”. 18
The US and EU have gone further and are calling on Eritrea to withdraw its forces. The EU
says Eritrean forces are “fuelling the conflict in Tigray, reportedly committing atrocities,
and exacerbating ethnic violence”. 19 The US State Department said there is evidence of
Eritrean soldiers forcibly returning Eritrean refugees from Tigray to Eritrea. 20 An EU envoy,
reporting on a visit to Ethiopia in February, said “the question of Eritrean troops is
extremely sensitive, so we don’t get the clear answer about the whereabouts or
magnitude of the Eritrean troops”. 21
Box 2: Ethiopian and Eritrean relations
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea are complex and deep rooted. Eritrea was an Italian colony for
the first half of the 20th century. After the Second World War the UN established Eritrea as an
autonomous region within Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s annexation of Eritrea in 1962 sparked a thirty-year
struggle for independence. The TPLF and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) fought together
against the Derg (the military government) in the 1970 and 1980s, although relations between the two
13
Ethiopia – Tigray region humanitarian update, UN OCHA, 19 February 2021
14
“’You should have finished off the survivors’: Ethiopian army implicated in brutal war crime video”, The
Telegraph, 19 February 2021
15
“Tigray: Hyenas picked over the unburied dead of Ethiopian war” The Times, 19 February 2021 reporting
AP “’Horrible’: Witnesses recall massacre in Ethiopian holy city”, 18 February 2021
16
“Eritrea disputes AP story detailing massacre in Tigray”, AP, 19 February 2021
17
See for example “Eritrea’s brutal shadow war in Ethiopia laid bare”, The Telegraph, 8 January 2021
18
HL 12852, 12 February 2021
19
Joint-Statement by High-Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell, Commissioner for International
Partnerships Jutta Urpilainen and Commissioner for Crisis Management Janez Lenarčič, 8 February 2021
20
“US says Eritrean forces should leave Tigray immediately”, AP 27 January 2021
21
“EU envoy warns Ethiopia Tigray crisis ‘out of control’”, Eritrea Hub, 21 February 20216 Ethiopia: situation in Tigray
“were not easy”. 22 The removal of the Derg and the new leadership of Meles Zenawi (the leader of the
TPLF) paved the way to Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia in 1993. However, a bloody border war in
1998 to 2000 resulted in a long stalemate, until 2018 when Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister and
reached out to Asmara (Eritrea’s capital). Shortly after the two countries declared the war to be over. 23
That Eritrean forces are reportedly back in Tigray raises all sorts of questions. Martin Plaut, a fellow at
the Institute of Commonwealth Studies and former Africa editor at BBC World Service, says that while
President Isaias Afwerki, the EPLF leader who has governed Eritrea since independence, may have
thought the conflict in Tigray would rid him of his Tigrayan enemies, the danger is the war could end
up destabilising both his and Abiy’s governments. 24
A widening conflict? Border dispute with Sudan
A long-standing border dispute with Sudan resurfaced late last year when the Sudan and
Ethiopian forces clashed in Fashaga, which lies to the north-west of Amhara region. 25 UN
OCHA says reports and images “indicate increasing militarisation on both sides of the
border” and clashes between the two armies “present significant risks to civilians and
regional stability”. 26
UK Government response
The Government has repeatedly called for all parties to bring an end to the fighting,
prioritise the protection of civilians, respect human rights, avoid civilian loss of life, and
allow unfettered humanitarian access. It is also calling for an independent investigation
into allegations of human rights abuses and emphasised the importance of media
freedom. 27
The UK Government has said in the past that it: “relies on a stable Ethiopia that is
supportive of our foreign policy priorities in the Horn of Africa.” 28
James Duddridge, the Minister for Africa, visited Ethiopia in late July 2020. At the time
Ethiopia was recovering from days of unrest following the killing of popular singer,
Hachalu Hundessa, and the Minister called for “more peaceful dialogue between ethnic
groups and for space to be given for political debate.” 29
Responding to the declaration of the state of emergency on 4 November 2020, the UK
Government called for an immediate de-escalation in Tigray and a halt to violence. Foreign
Secretary Dominic Raab also emphasised the need to protect civilians and allow
humanitarian access in a phone call with Prime Minister Abiy on 10 November. On 17
November the Government said it is “working closely with humanitarian agencies to
ensure that aid reaches civilians affected by the fighting.”
22
Richard Dowden “Africa: Altered states, ordinary miracles”, 2019, p514
23
“Ethiopia and Eritrean relations” (timeline), Reuters, 14 July 2018
24
“Eritrea in the Tigray war: What we know and why it might backfire”, African Arguments, 8 January 2021.
Further background is available in “Tigray crisis: Eritrea’s role in Ethiopian conflict”, BBC News 28
December 2020
25
“Ethiopia-Sudan border dispute raises stakes for security in the Horn”, Council on Foreign Relations, 4
February 2021; “Viewpoint: Why Ethiopia and Sudan have fallen out over al-Fashaga”, BBC News, 3
January 2021
26
Ethiopia – Tigray region humanitarian update, UN OCHA, 19 February 2021
27
See “Foreign Secretary statement following a meeting with the Ethiopian Deputy Prime Minister” 25
November 2020; “Humanitarian access to Tigray: Minister for Africa statement”, 17 December 2020;
HL12399, 4 February 2021; HL12329, 3 February 2021; HL12328, 3 February 2021; HL 12300, 2 February
2021
28
Ethiopia country profile, Department for International Development, July 2018
29
PQ111500, 4 November 20207 Commons Library Briefing, 25 February 2021
Dominic Raab raised the UK’s concerns directly with Abiy during a visit to Ethiopia on 22
January 2021. Raab also signed a climate change partnership agreement with the
Ethiopian Government.
Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the Opposition, wrote to the Foreign Secretary on 9
February 2021 voicing his concerns about human rights abuses and the potential impact
on wider regional stability. 30 Several MPs and peers have questioned the Government on
the situation in oral and written questions.
Ethiopia is the UK’s largest bilateral aid programme, with a £324 million budget in
FY2020/21 and about £3 billion over the last ten years. 31 The Foreign Secretary announced
£11.4 million of humanitarian funding to support those affected by the conflict during his
visit to Ethiopia in January 2021. 32 The Government has resisted suggestions to suspend
aid, arguing “withholding finance is not an effective lever”, but has said it continually
reviews its support. 33 In mid-January the EU suspended budget support for Ethiopia until
humanitarian agencies are granted access to Tigray. 34
UN Security Council
The Security Council has discussed Ethiopia four times since the crisis erupted on 4
November 2020, most recently on 3 February 2021. All the discussions have been held
under “any other business”, which is a standing item in closed consultations. The Security
Council has yet to issue a statement on the situation. UN Security Council Report says that
while all Council members have been concerned about the conflict in Tigray “there is not
yet a unified position in the Council on the most appropriate way to respond”. 35
Alex De Waal says Resolution 2417 (2018) was agreed specifically to address situations
such as in Tigray. The resolution condemns starvation as a method of warfare and the
denial of humanitarian access to civilian populations. De Waal suggests the UN could
invoke resolution 2417 as a means to apply pressure to Ethiopia. 36
Background to the crisis
The appointment of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister in early 2018 ushered in a period of
rapid change in Ethiopia, introducing wider political freedoms. Regionally, Abiy moved
quickly to resolve the years of frozen conflict with neighbouring Eritrea and helped
mediate in neighbouring Sudan after President Bashir was deposed. These initiatives
earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, his appointment has led to a “realignment in Ethiopian politics”, according to
academics Jonathan Fisher and Meressa Tsehaye Gebrewahd. 37
Ethiopia’s largest ethnic groups are the Omoros, Amharas and Tigrayans.
30
Letter from Sir Keir Starmer to Dominic Raab, 9 February 2021
31
HL11061, 21 December 2020
32
PQ15080, 11 February 2021
33
HL11061, 21 December 2021
34
“EU suspends Ethiopian budget support over Tigray crisis”, Reuters, 15 January 2021
35
“Ethiopia (Tigray): Council Members to Discuss the Humanitarian Situation”, UN Security Council Report, 2
February 2021
36
“The Horn” podcast, Crisis Group, season 2, episode 12. The World Food Programme discussed the
resolution and the impetus behind it in an article on 23 May 2020.
37
Jonathan Fisher, Meressa Tsehaye Gebrewahd,”‘Game over’? Abiy Ahmed, the Tigrayan People’s
Liberation Front and Ethiopia’s political crisis”, African Affairs, Volume 118, Issue 470, January 2019,
Pages 194–2068 Ethiopia: situation in Tigray
Before the TPLF and EPRDF took power in 1991, Ethiopia had been ruled for much of the
20th century by either the Imperial family under Haile Selassie or the military rule of the
Derg under Mengistu Haile Mariam. Both reflected the dominance of the Amhara.
The TPLF emerges..
It was during the period of the communist Derg military government (1974-1991) that the
Tigray People’s Liberation Front was formed. The TPLF sought greater autonomy for the
region of Tigray. Civil war ensued and only came to an end in 1991 when the TPLF, and
their allies in the opposition umbrella movement the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF), forced Mengistu and the Derg from power.
…and creates a new federal system
The TPLF was instrumental in creating the EPRDF. Richard Dowden explains the Tigrayans
needed the support of Ethiopia’s other ethnic groups if it was to claim legitimacy to rule
the whole country. Under Meles Zenawi (the leader of the TPLF), a system of ethnic
federalism was established under which key ethnic groups were granted their own
regional states. 38 Ethiopia was governed by Meles Zenawi Asres for over two decades until
his death in 2012, when he was by southerner Hailemariam Dessalegn.
Abiy comes to power
However, anti-government protests, repression and discord prompted Dessalegn to resign
in 2018. The EPRDF selecting Abiy Ahmed, a leading figure in the Oromo wing of the
ruling party, as the country’s new Prime Minister. 39
Hailing from the Oromo-wing of the EPRDF, and with support from the Amharas, Abiy
moved quickly to remove Tigrayans and the TPLF from power. 40 In 2019 he dissolved,
reformed, and renamed the governing coalition. The TPLF opted not to join the new ruling
Prosperity Party, leaving them outside national government for the first time in three
decades.
The TPLF remained the ruling party in Tigray region but relations between Mekelle (the
regional capital) and the federal government in Addis Ababa soured. The TPLF’s decision
to proceed with a regional election, against the ruling of the federal government (which
postponed elections scheduled for August 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic),
reflected the wider battle between the regional and federal governments for control. 41
The widening rift between Abiy and the TPLF came to a head in November 2020. On 4
November Abiy declared a state of emergency in Tigray region. He accused TPLF forces
of attacking a federal armed forces base, and launched a military offensive, supported by
Amhara militias. 42 On 28 November Abiy declared victory shortly after federal forces
entered Mekelle. An interim administration has since been established. As discussed
above, the situation in Tigray remains volatile amid concerns of a serious humanitarian
crisis.
38
As set out in the 1994 constitution. Richard Dowden “Africa: Altered states, ordinary miracles”, 2019,
p521; Commons Library Insight “Ethiopia charts a new course under Abiy Ahmed – but challenges
remain”, 26 September 2018
39
See Commons Library Insight “Ethiopia charts a new course under Abiy Ahmed – but challenges remain”,
26 September 2018
40
Jason Burke “Rise and fall of Ethiopia’s TLPF – from rebels to rulers and back”, The Guardian, 25
November 2020
41
“Finding a path to peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”, Crisis Group, 11 February 2021
42
Martin Plaut “Tigray: One hundred days of war”, African Arguments, 12 February 2021; “Finding a path
to peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”, Crisis Group, 11 February 20219 Commons Library Briefing, 25 February 2021
Ethiopia’s federal system… a cause of unrest?
Even before the Tigray conflict began, there were concerns about rising ethnic tensions
that might threaten the unity of the country.
Academics such as Yohannes Gedamu, a Georgia Gwinnett College lecturer specialising in
the Horn of Africa, in analysis published in 2019, argue the federal structure has caused
problems precisely because it is constituted along ethnic lines. Gedamu believes the
system “created more animosity and competition for power and influence”. 43
Fergal Keane, the BBC’s Africa correspondent, noted in 2019 that the opening of the
political space under Abiy “has lifted a lid on ethnic tensions” that had been kept in check
under the EPRDF. And when the conflict in Tigray began, Emmanuel Igunza, a BBC Africa
reporter, also spoke of a growth of ethnic divisions within the country since Abiy took
office.
Africa expert Alex de Waal says Abiy’s power base is among a mostly Amhara political
elite that wants to abolish the federal system in favour of a unity government system. 44 In
November 2020 the Ethiopian Foreign Ministry described the years of TPLF rule as having
“reduced (Ethiopia) to a clannish, fake federalism which has left nothing but a deeply
divided society”. 45
The constitution stipulates that every region has the right to self-determination and
peaceful secession (Article 39). Crisis Group warns the conflict could unleash stronger
ethno-nationalist feelings, including broadening popular support for elements of the
Tigrayan elite that demand secession. This could spread beyond Tigray:
The conflict has poisoned relations between Tigrayan and other Ethiopian elites and
inflamed public opinion in Tigray against the federal authorities, who may well
struggle to administer a restive region. If Addis Ababa’s energies are drained by
enforcing its rule on Tigray, other Ethiopian ethno-nationalist forces may be
emboldened. 46
Crisis Group’s February 2021 report “finding a path to peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”
documents the evolution of long-standing tensions within Ethiopia under the TPLF and
Abiy.
Parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled for 5 June 2021.
43
Yohannes Gedamu “Why Ethiopia’s federal system is dangerously flawed”, Democracy in Africa, 1 July
2019
44
Alex De Waal, “Tigray crisis viewpoint: why Ethiopia is spiralling out of control”, BBC News, 15 November
2020
45
Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement via “Finding a path to peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”,
Crisis Group, 11 February 2021
46
“Finding a path to peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region”, Crisis Group, 11 February 2021About the Library The House of Commons Library research service provides MPs and their staff with the impartial briefing and evidence base they need to do their work in scrutinising Government, proposing legislation, and supporting constituents. As well as providing MPs with a confidential service we publish open briefing papers, which are available on the Parliament website. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in these publicly available research briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent changes. If you have any comments on our briefings please email papers@parliament.uk. Authors are available to discuss the content of this briefing only with Members and their staff. If you have any general questions about the work of the House of Commons you can email hcinfo@parliament.uk. Disclaimer This information is provided to Members of Parliament in support of their parliamentary duties. It is a general briefing only and should not be relied on as a substitute for specific advice. The House of Commons or the author(s) shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any loss or damage of any kind arising from its use, and may remove, vary or amend any information at any time without prior notice. The House of Commons accepts no responsibility for any references or links to, or the content of, information maintained by third parties. This information is provided subject to the conditions of the Open Parliament Licence.
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