Greater Manchester LEP REPORT - Emsi
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Greater Manchester
LEP REPORT
Contents
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
3......Foreword
4......Overview of our region’s economy
5......High level overview of our region’s industries and occupations
6......What are our top industries?
7......What are our top occupations?
8......What are our highest paying industries and occupations?
9......What are our niche industries and occupations?
10....What are our most competitive industries and occupations?
11....Where are the jobs in our most niche industry?
About Emsi
Economic Modelling Specialists International (Emsi) creates tools and services that help
organisations better understand the connection between economies, people and work. Through
our unparalleled local and granular economic data, we are now working with more than 100
colleges, universities and LEPs across the country, giving them the understanding they need
in order to close skills gaps, drive growth, and increase productivity in their local economy.
2
Foreword
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
The central role of LEPs – determining local economic priorities, driving economic growth and
helping to increase regional productivity – all require that you have a thorough understanding
of your regional economy. One of the methods at your disposal to help you acquire this
understanding is of course Labour Market Information (LMI).
There is a wealth of publicly available data sources available, but there are numerous problems
associated with using them. To begin with, not one dataset out there gives a complete picture of the
labour market. Secondly, all datasets contain strengths, weaknesses, and data suppressions. And
thirdly, attempting to use the raw data is a hugely time-consuming and resource-consuming activity.
Most LMI solutions can help overcome the first and the third problem, by combining different
datasets into one system. However, this still doesn’t overcome the second problem – that of
weaknesses and data suppressions. Since these problems and gaps in the data tend to occur at
the 3 and 4-digit industry and occupation levels, what most LMI solutions tend to do is to make
assumptions about the granular levels based on the data and trends at the more generic levels.
This approach is bound to lead to erroneous conclusions, since many of the industries and
occupations at the 3 and 4-digit level are quite different from one another and are highly unlikely
to have been growing or declining at the same rate (for example, within the 2-digit Leisure,
Travel and Related Personal Service Occupations, there are such disparate occupations as Travel
Agents, Caretakers, Hairdressers and Barbers, and Sports and Leisure Assistants). The same
errors will occur if assumptions are made at the geographical level, as regions are made up of
sub-regions which are often far from homogenous.
At Emsi we take a different approach. Rather than taking public datasets and making broad
assumptions, we economically model them together using a technique developed over many years,
which allows us to retain the strengths and discard the weaknesses of each source. What we end
up with is a dataset that gives a detailed and accurate picture not only of regional labour markets,
but also of the sub-geographies within, right down to the most specific industries and occupations.
The intent of this report is to give you a flavour of this data, tailored specifically to your region.
Some of the highlights of the data in this report are:
• Granular data (4-digit) on occupations and industries throughout
• A look at the industries and occupations which make your region unique
• A look at the occupational make up of the most unique industry in your region
This kind of granular data can go a long way to helping you better understand what industries,
occupations and skills are driving your region. In turn, this can help you in a number of ways,
including better defining your region’s economic priorities, formulating a more effective growth
strategy, and encouraging inward investment into your region.
Our goals are very similar to yours: you are looking to drive growth and increase productivity in your
region; we produce granular data that is designed to give organisations such as yours the knowledge and
understanding you need to be able to more effectively drive growth and increase productivity in your
region. We hope that this report will be of use and of interest to you as you strive to meet your goals.
3
Overview of our region’s economy
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
Number of jobs in 2015:
1,239,524
Projected number of jobs by 2020:
1,267,087
Forecast increase in jobs between 2015 and 2020:
27,563
Forecast job growth between 2015 and 2020:
2%
Average wage in our region:
£24,645
4
High level overview of our region’s
industries and occupations
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
Top 5 high level industries
Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair 192,006
of Motor Vehicles and Motorcyles 193,036
Human Health and 170,328
Social Work Activities 179,890
Professional, Scientific and 119,122
Technical Activities 126,290
Administrative and 112,915
Support Services Activities 115,461
110,834
Education
106,176
Top 5 high level occupations
Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
226,084
Professional Occupations
233,389
165,139
Elementary Occupations
167,143
Administrative and 161,684
Secretarial Occupations 165,130
Associate Professional and 161,620
Technical Occupations 166,149
Sales and Customer 122,094
Service Occupations 124,982
Top 5 high level growth industries
Change in Jobs
Industry % Change
(2015-2020)
Human Health and Social Work Activities 9,562 6%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 7,168 6%
Construction 4,578 8%
Information and Communication 4,436 12%
Real Estate Activities 3,111 11%
Top 5 high level growth occupations
Change in Jobs
Occupation % Change
(2015-2020)
Professional Occupations 7,305 3%
Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 4,529 3%
Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations 3,954 3%
Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 3,446 2%
5
Sales and Customer Service Occupations 2,888 2%
What are our top industries?
A good place to start when trying to understand what is driving your regional economy is to look
at which industries are driving employment both in terms of total numbers employed and in terms
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
of future growth. However, simply looking at the headline industries will not tell you an awful lot.
To come to a really good understanding of the drivers in your region, it is crucial to drill right down
to the most specific industries (4-digit SIC). Our data tool, Analyst, allows users to do just this, and
the information below shows both the biggest industries and the highest growth industries in your
region, right down to the most granular levels.
Top 10 biggest industries
Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
69,866
Hospital activities
74,522
Public administration and defence; 53,109
compulsory social security 53,059
43,630
Primary education
41,762
Retail sale in non-specialised stores with 38,695
food, beverages or tobacco predominating 39,216
Restaurants and mobile food 35,559
service activities 37,640
Temporary employment 31,882
agency activities 32,293
28,282
General secondary education
27,261
Business and other management 28,108
consultancy activities 31,973
Financial service activities, except 22,625
insurance and pension funding 24,134
22,046
Beverage serving activities
23,150
Top 10 highest growth industries
Industry Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change
Hospital activities 4,656 7%
Business and other management consultancy activities 3,865 14%
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy 2,225 10%
Restaurants and mobile food service activities 2,081 6%
Computer consultancy activities 1,662 15%
Other human health activities 1,567 10%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding 1,509 7%
Renting and operating of own or leased real estate 1,500 9%
Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly
1,370 11%
and disabled
Beverage serving activities 1,104 5%
6What are our top occupations?
The industry data tells us a good deal, but we also need to look at the local economy through the
lens of occupations to see which jobs are driving the regional economy. As with the industry data,
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
our Analyst tool can drill right down to the most granular detail, and so below we have set out the
Top 10 occupations in your region both in terms of total numbers employed, and forecasted change
to 2020 at the 4-digit SOC level.
Top 10 biggest occupations
Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
52,573
Sales and retail assistants
53,092
34,444
Care workers and home carers
36,079
Other administrative 30,583
occupations n.e.c. 31,311
29,729
Nurses
31,392
28,597
Cleaners and domestics
27,976
23,813
Kitchen and catering assistants
24,662
Elementary storage occupations 23,003
23,334
Book-keepers, payroll managers 21,827
and wages clerks 22,708
Sales accounts and business 20,140
development managers 20,510
Primary and nursery education 17,027
teaching professionals 16,967
Top 10 highest growth occupations
Occupation Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change
Nurses 1,663 6%
Care workers and home carers 1,635 5%
Property, housing and estate managers 1,115 10%
Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 881 4%
Kitchen and catering assistants 849 4%
Call and contact centre occupations 838 8%
Nursing auxiliaries and assistants 821 5%
Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 728 2%
Chartered and certified accountants 674 7%
Medical practitioners 604 5%
7What are our highest paying industries
and occupations?
Another important aspect of unlocking your region’s labour market is to look at how much
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
industries and occupations pay. As with the data presented on previous pages, we have drilled
right down to the most granular 4-digit SIC and SOC codes to unlock the highest paying industries
and occupations in your region.
Industries – Median annual salary
£100,120.12
£49,902.59
£75,464.06
£53,053.36
£49,449.09
£50,696.96
£72,801.51
£49,708.92
£51,826.12
£55,187.34
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leWhat are our niche industries and occupations?
Where things begin to get really interesting is when we uncover the industries that make
your regional economy unique. Our Analyst tool contains a function known as Location Quotient,
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
which is a statistical measure of industry or occupation concentration in an area compared to the
rest of the country. Location Quotient works on a benchmark basis, with 1.0 indicating the national
average. Therefore, industries and occupations with a score of more than 1.0 indicates that they
have an employment profile that is greater than the national average.
Industry Location Quotient
Industry 2015 LQ 2020 LQ
12.62
Manufacture of starches and starch products
12.22
Manufacture of machinery for 8.76
paper and paperboard production 8.31
7.24
Manufacture of industrial gases
7.94
Manufacture of non-wovens and articles 6.99
made from non-wovens, except apparel 6.22
6.67
Manufacture of pulp
4.67
Manufacture of macaroni, noodles, couscous 6.64
and similar farinaceous products 5.37
Manufacture of other knitted 5.94
and crocheted apparel 5.94
Manufacture of soap and detergents, 5.23
cleaning and polishing preparations 5.40
4.89
Manufacture of carpets and rugs
5.37
Manufacture of cordage, 4.38
rope, twine and netting 4.46
Occupation Location Quotient
Occupation 2015 LQ 2020 LQ
Textile process operatives 2.95 2.88
Textiles, garments and related trades n.e.c. 2.48 2.23
Air transport operatives 2.20 2.14
Weavers and knitters 2.20 2.01
Air travel assistants 1.98 1.99
Sewing machinists 1.93 1.84
Call and contact centre occupations 1.86 1.94
Pensions and insurance clerks and assistants 1.59 1.57
Legal associate professionals 1.58 1.58
Upholsterers 1.57 1.49 9What are our most competitive industries
and occupations?
We can also measure which industries and occupations make your region unique using a function
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
on Analyst called Shift Share. Using this function produces a figure known as Competitive Effect,
which is similar to Location Quotient, but rather than measuring uniqueness in terms of total jobs,
measures it in terms of job growth. What this figure does, therefore, is to explain how much of the
change in a given industry or occupation in your region is due to some unique competitive advantage
that the region possesses. Positive numbers denote a positive Competitive Effect, and so the larger
the number, the greater the Competitive Effect.
Industry Competitiveness
Industry Competitive Effect
Activities of employment placement agencies 1,047
Renting and operating of own or
1,003
leased real estate
Non-specialised wholesale trade 930
Activities of sport clubs 867
Business and other management
843
consultancy activities
Television programming and
728
broadcasting activities
Real estate agencies 696
Other telecommunications activities 674
Other retail sale of new goods
645
in specialised stores
Computer consultancy activities 633
Occupation Competitiveness
Occupation Competitive Effect
Property, housing and estate managers 405
Call and contact centre occupations 309
Farmers 284
Human resources and
228
industrial relations officers
Estate agents and auctioneers 189
Chartered and certified accountants 176
Clergy 142
Pharmacy and other dispensing assistants 135
Gardeners and landscape gardeners 129
10 Human resource managers and directors 118Where are the jobs in our most niche industry?
The data on page 9 showed which industries are most unique to your region, with the Manufacture
of starches and starch products industry coming on top. However, we might then ask the question,
Emsi LEP Report | Greater Manchester LEP
what are the occupations that this sector employs? Through our Staffing Pattern function in Analyst,
we can answer this question. The data below gives a breakdown of the Top 5 occupations within this
sector, including numbers employed, employment forecast, hourly earnings and education level.
The significance of this information is that you can find out quickly and simply what the occupations
are in an industry, and therefore the skillset for that sector. It is worth noting that the process can
also be run in reverse, whereby users can begin with an occupation (rather than an industry) and
run an Inverse Staffing Pattern to quickly identify the industries that employ this position.
% of
Employed Employed Change % Change Total Median
Education
Description in Industry in Industry (2015 – (2014 – Jobs in Hourly
Level
(2015) (2020) 2020) 2020) Industry Earnings
(2015)
Honours,
Production and Bachelor's
86 79 -7 -8% 38.9% £20.37
process engineers degree; BTEC
Level 6
Purchasing Honours,
Bachelor's
managers and 60 52 -8 -13% 27.2% £23.58 degree; BTEC
directors Level 6
Metal working A Levels;
production and 40 35 -5 -13% 18.1% £12.06 Level 3 NVQ;
maintenance fitters BTEC Level 3
Honours,
Chartered and Bachelor's
18 16 -2 -11% 8.3% £17.87
certified accountants degree; BTEC
Level 6
Financial and A Levels;
accounting 17 14 -3 -18% 7.5% £21.31 Level 3 NVQ;
technicians BTEC Level 3
11To find out more about how Emsi can help your organisation
build a better regional economy, contact:
Email: info@economicmodelling.co.uk
Phone: 07720 641 651
Web: www.economicmodelling.co.uk
Blog: www.economicmodelling.co.uk/blog
Twitter: @EMSI_UKYou can also read
