July 2017 Virtual and Augmented Reality StatPack - Current Forecasts and the State of the - AMA Atlanta
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Virtual and Augmented Reality
StatPack
Current Forecasts and the State of the
Market
July 2017
Victoria Petrock
Contributors: Christopher Bendtsen, Ricky Costa
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.
VR and AR: What’s the difference?
Virtual reality (VR): VR fully immerses a user inside a
nonfixed visual environment, such as a virtual world or
experience. Examples of VR include 360-degree videos,
photos and product demos via any device (e.g., connected
TVs, desktops/laptops, mobile devices and headsets that let
users navigate through the experience), and games via head-
mounted displays (HMDs). Examples of VR headsets include
AuraVisor, Google Cardboard, Google Daydream View, HTC
Vive, Oculus Rift, PlayStation VR and Samsung Gear VR.
Augmented reality (AR): AR enables a user to interact with
virtual objects and other types of digital information that are
overlaid over the real world. Examples of AR include filters for
videos and photos (e.g., Snapchat Lenses); games (e.g.,
Pokémon Go); navigation (e.g., heads-up displays [HUDs]);
interactions with objects (e.g, Blippar, HP Aurasma); and 3-D
product demos and projections via headsets and smart
glasses.
Source: VR headset: Hopkins; AR goggles: Felisberto Piazza; Icons via The Noun Project, licensed under CC by 3.0. © 2017 eMarketer Inc.
eMarketer definitions
• Virtual reality (VR) users: Individuals of any age who experience VR content at least once per
month via any device. This definition includes users who view 360-degree photos/videos and 3-D
animations on any device, including desktops/laptops, mobile devices, game consoles or HMDs.
• 360-degree video: Video footage recorded using a collection of cameras, or an omnidirectional
camera that enables the viewer to control the viewing direction. This format is also known as immersive
video or spherical video.
• Head-mounted displays (HMDs): Devices used to experience VR and AR content that are held up
to the eyes or worn on the head. HMDs are either stereoscope-style headset enclosures that can
incorporate a smartphone, or dedicated HMDs that contain their own screens and are tethered to
computers or game consoles. Examples include Oculus Rift, Google Daydream View and PlayStation
VR. HMDs are also commonly referred to as “headsets.”
• VR headset users: Individuals of any age who experience VR content at least once per month via
specialized HMDs.
• Augmented reality (AR) users: Individuals of any age who experience AR content at least once
per month via any device.
• Smart glasses: Wearable computer glasses used in AR applications that display information that
supplements what the wearer is seeing. Examples include Google Glass, Epson Moverio and Vuzix
Blade 3000.
• Heads-up displays (HUDs): Transparent displays that project information and imagery onto a
surface (often a windshield) without requiring viewers to look down or away from what they are focusing
on. They are most often used in AR applications, as with aircraft or automobiles.
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.
Virtual Reality
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.
42.9
million
people in the US will
be VR users by 2019
That’s
14.8%
of the population
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.
The number of VR users in the US will more
than double in 2017
The number of users will grow
109.5% in 2017. The increasing
60 109.5% popularity of 360-degree
photos/videos is driving growth.
eMarketer’s forecasts
include people who 49.2 100%
consume 360-degree
photos/videos or 3-D
animated VR content at
36.7
least once a month on
any device. 63.7%
22.4
10.7 34.1%
0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
US Virtual Reality Users (millions)
US Virtual Reality User Growth (% change)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.
Though VR penetration will remain relatively
low, it will continue to grow
By 2019, nearly 15%
of the US population 20%
17.5%
and 17.5% of internet
users will be VR
users. 13.2% 14.8%
% of internet users
8.2% 11.1%
4.0% 6.9% % of population
3.3%
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
US Virtual Reality User Penetration (% of internet users and % of population)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.
Most VR is consumed on computers and
mobile devices
• VR generally falls into two categories:
360-degree photo/video and 3-D
animation. It can be consumed via Desktop/laptop Mobile Console
desktop/laptop, mobile device, game
console or HMD/headset.
• Most of today’s VR is consumed via
desktops, laptops and mobile devices
in the form of 360-degree photo/video.
• Specific HMDs used to view VR are
designed to tether to one or another of 39.5% 37.8% 22.6%
these devices. HMDs currently make
up less than one-quarter of VR device
sales.
• The majority of today’s VR content is
related to gaming and entertainment,
but there are also promising
applications in other industries.
Virtual Reality Device Sales Share Worldwide, by Type, 2016 (% of
total)
Source: SuperData Research and Unity Technologies, Feb 2017; eMarketer calculations © 2017 eMarketer Inc.The majority of 360-degree photos/videos
are consumed via YouTube and Facebook
Source: Facebook Newsroom; Google Blogs; Panorama graphic by mikicon from thenounproject.com © 2017 eMarketer Inc.360-degree photos and videos are the most
widely viewed type of VR content
“YouTube has hundreds of thousands
of 360-degree videos available.”
—Amit Singh, Vice President, Business
Operations, AR & VR, Google, February 2017
“More than 25 million 360-degree photos
and more than 1 million 360-degree
videos [have been] posted on Facebook to
date.”
—Brent Ayrey, Product Director, and Christopher
Wong, Software Engineer, Facebook, March 2017
Source: Facebook Newsroom; Google Blogs © 2017 eMarketer Inc.The number of US VR headset users is
expected to double this year
25
100%
98.7%
17.2
13.9
45.3%
9.6
23.4%
4.8
0
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
US Virtual Reality Headset Users (millions) US Virtual Reality Headset User Growth (% change)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.But VR headset users will still make up less
than half of total VR users
VR headset users Headset non-users
VR headset
users’ share of 2016 45.0%
overall US VR
users will decline
over time. The 2017 42.7%
sales and use of
cheaper
headsets will 2018 37.9%
decrease, and
more people will
watch 360- 2019 34.9%
degree photos
and videos on 0% 100%
other devices. US Virtual Reality User Share, Headset Users vs. Non-Users (% of total)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.A number of headsets are now on the market
Google Cardboard Samsung Gear VR Oculus Rift
June 2014 November 2015 May 2016
PlayStation VR HTC Vive Google Daydream View
October 2016 June 2016 November 2016
Source: Google; Samsung; Oculus; Sony Interactive Entertainment; HTC © 2017 eMarketer Inc.So far, Samsung Gear VR and PlayStation VR
lead the pack
Samsung Gear VR 60%
PlayStation VR 42%
Oculus Rift 22%
The Samsung device’s
Google Daydream 18% popularity is likely a
function of its perceived
value at a relatively low
Google Cardboard 14% price.
Virtual Reality Headsets Used by US VR Headset Owners (% of respondents)
Source: Thrive Analytics, March 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.BI Intelligence expects
global VR headset shipments
will increase from
12 million
in 2017 to more than
55 million
in 2022
That’s
359%
growth over the next
six years
Source: BI Intelligence, Feb 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Citigroup expects worldwide VR headset sales
to quadruple between 2017 and 2025
50
40
VR hardware is
expected to drive
industry growth in the 30
near term.
10
0
2017 2020 2025
Virtual Reality Headset Sales Worldwide (millions of units)
Source: Citigroup Investment Research, Oct 2016 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.The US, Europe, China and Japan are among
the biggest markets for VR headsets
100%
China
$168 million in 2016 $384 million by 2020
Japan
$170 million in 2016 $705 million by 2020 VR device
sales in these
countries and
US
$576 million in 2016 $2.1 billion by 2020 regions are
forecast to
reach $5.6
billion by
Europe 2020.
$632 million in 2016 $2.4 billion by 2020
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Virtual Reality Device Sales in Select Countries/Regions
(millions/billions and % of total)
Source: UBS, Jan 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.VR headset users generally have positive
things to say about them
Most consumers
who purchased
headsets reported
experiences that
met or exceeded
their expectations.
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.But many consumers remain lukewarm
Fewer than
15% of internet
users worldwide are
interested in purchasing
a VR headset...
while 59.6% are
not interested and
25.6% are
unsure
Source: Gamer Network, Feb 2016 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Lack of interest and cost are the biggest
obstacles to headset adoption
Older people are
more likely to say
they aren’t Just not interested 53%
interested, but less
likely to be
concerned about Too expensive 43%
motion sickness.
May cause motion
14%
sickness
Younger people are
Lack of content 12%
more concerned about
cost and more likely to
worry about a lack of
Poor quality of content 3% content for headsets.
Reasons that US Internet Users Are Not Interested in Owning a Virtual
Reality Headset (% of respondents)
Source: Thrive Analytics, March 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Augmented Reality
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.The number of AR users in the US is also
steadily rising
60 50%
eMarketer’s forecasts 54.4
include people who 48.1
consume AR content at
least once a month on
40.0 30.2%
any device.
30.7 20.1%
13.1%
0%
0 2017 2018 2019
2016 2017 2018 2019
US Augmented Reality Users (millions) US Augmented Reality User Growth (% change)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.54.4
million
people in the US will
use AR by 2019
That’s
16.4%
of the US population
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.The global AR market will
be worth more than
$165 billion
by 2024
That’s a compound
annual growth rate
(CAGR) of
81%
between 2016 and 2024
Source: Global Market Insights, 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.By 2019, nearly one-fifth of US internet users
will be AR users
25%
19.4%
% of internet users
17.3%
14.7%
16.4%
11.5% 14.6%
12.3%
9.5%
% of population
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
US Augmented Reality User Penetration (% of internet users and % of population)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Right now, there are more US AR than VR users
25%
... but VR
AR users 16.4% use is
14.6%
growing
14.8%
12.3% more quickly,
from a
9.5% 11.1% smaller base.
6.9% VR users
3.3%
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
US Virtual Reality vs. Augmented Reality User Penetration (% of population)
Source: eMarketer, April 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.AR content can be viewed with several
types of devices
Smart glasses and
Handheld devices HUDs
HMDs
Source: HUD: Hyundai Australia; Smart glasses: Epson; Handheld device: zedinteractive from Pixabay © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Most of today’s AR experiences take place
on handheld devices
Smart HMDs Mobile devices
glasses
15.8% 35.8% 48.4%
0% 100%
Augmented Reality Device Revenue Share Worldwide, by Type, 2016 (% of total)
Source: Technavio, 2017 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Apps and filters for mobile devices are
among the most popular AR uses right now
Snapchat and Instagram Facebook Messenger
lenses, filters and filters, 3-D masks and Pokémon Go
stickers camera effects
Source: Snap Inc.; Facebook; Darren Mark Domirez from Flickr © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Shipments of dedicated VR hardware dwarf
shipments of AR hardware
VR hardware is
much further along
on the development
and adoption curve;
much of the AR
hardware remains
experimental.
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.But AR hardware is expected to generate
more revenues than VR hardware by 2021
$120 $120
AR devices have more
potential to begin
replacing smartphones,
and to become more
widely used as work tools. AR hardware
VR hardware
$18
$9 $10
$2
$2 $10
$9
$0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Axis Title
Augmented Reality vs. Virtual Reality Hardware Revenues Worldwide (billions)
Source: Citigroup Investment Research, Oct 2016 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.Both VR and AR have use cases in many
industries
Travel, Tourism &
Video Gaming Transportation Real Estate Healthcare
Retail & Digital
Automotive Education Entertainment
Marketing
Source: Doctor: IYIKON; Car: Dinosoft Labs; House: ranjit kumar; Airplane: Gan Khoon Lay; Mortarboard: amy © 2017 eMarketer Inc.
morgan; Shopping cart: Made; Movie camera: Storm; All icons from thenounproject.comGaming and entertainment will continue to
drive revenues in the near term
© 2017 eMarketer Inc.By 2025, AR and VR revenues worldwide are
expected to reach at least $569 billion
100%
$0 Although
Commerce
$163 billion software,
service and
$4 billion content will
make up the
largest
Software, service & content
portion of
$276 billion AR/VR
revenues by
2025,
commerce
$4 billion will grow
Hardware $130 billion from $0 to
$163 billion.
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Augmented and Virtual Reality Revenues Worldwide, by Segment (billions and % of total)
Source: Citigroup Investment Research, Oct 2016 © 2017 eMarketer Inc.You can also read
