Launching a Free-to- Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls - Eric Benjamin Seufert
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Launching a Free-to- Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls Eric Benjamin Seufert VP of User Acquisition, Rovio Owner, Mobile Dev Memo
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Who am I?
Presentation Structure
Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges
Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy
Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy III. Three case studies
Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy III. Three case studies IV. Conclusion
Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy III. Three case studies IV. Conclusion
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to- Play game in 2015?
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to- Play game in 2015? ● Advertising costs are high
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to- Play game in 2015? ● Advertising costs are high
Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to- Play game in 2015? ● Succeeding on the App Store is difficult by design.
App Store Discovery is Not Broken
1.21MM
apps
1.43MM
apps
January 2015App Store Discovery is Not Broken
App Store Discovery is Not Broken
Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
June 1, 2015
(6
)
(2
)
(2
)Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
June 1, 2015 *
X
* *
* *
*
X
* Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary(6
of the “Great Unbundling”
\ )
X Temporary viral / paid blip (2
)
\
\ Truly Viral phenomenon (2
)Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
July 29, 2015
(6
)
(2
)
(2
)Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
July 29, 2015 *
X
* *
* X
b
\ * Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary
of the “Great Unbundling” (6
* X Temporary viral / paid blip )
(2
\ \ Truly Viral phenomenon )
(2
b Brand integration )Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
June 1, 2015 July 29, 2015
Existing Networks 6 5
Facebook 2 4
Google 2 1
Other 2 1
Viral Phenomena 2 2
Temporary Blips 2 2Advertising vs. Existing Networks ● Advertising costs are going up…
Advertising vs. Existing Networks
Advertising vs. Existing Networks ● Advertising costs are going up… …because the largest developers are monetizing their networks…
Advertising vs. Networks
Advertising vs. Existing Networks ● Advertising costs are going up… …because the largest developers are monetizing their networks… …and retaining them within their portfolio via cross- promotion…
Advertising vs. Networks
Advertising vs. Networks
Advertising vs. Networks ● Advertising costs are going up… …because the largest developers are monetizing their networks… …and retaining them within their portfolio via cross- promotion… ● With a single title, you’re not competing with large developers on the basis of LTV > CPI (game quality), you’re competing on the basis of network size.
Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy III. Three case studies IV. Conclusion
Positioning vs. Marketing
Positioning vs. Marketing • Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money;
Positioning vs. Marketing • Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money; • F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on marketing tactics;
Balance No Balance
Sheet Sheet
Requirement Requirement
2
1
Unpaid Growth
3
4
Paid GrowthBalance No Balance
Sheet Sheet
Requirement Requirement Unpaid Growth
?
Paid GrowthBalance No Balance
Sheet Sheet
Requirement Requirement Unpaid Growth
Paid GrowthRequirement Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
“Gimmick”
No Balance
Games
Sheet
Lightweight
graphics-driven
Fast-follow experiments
Clones
Requirement
Balance
SheetRequirement Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
“Gimmick”
No Balance
Games
Sheet
Lightweight
graphics-driven
Fast-follow experiments
Clones
Requirement
IP Co-brands
Balance
Sheet
Second-
screen
ExtensionRequirement Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
“Gimmick”
No Balance
Games
Sheet
Lightweight
graphics-driven
Fast-follow experiments
Clones
Requirement
IP Co-brands
Full F2P
Balance
Sheet
Second- Economy
screen
Extension
GamesRequirement Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
“Gimmick”
No Balance
?
Games
Sheet
Lightweight
graphics-driven
Fast-follow experiments
Clones
Requirement
IP Co-brands
Full F2P
Balance
Sheet
Second- Economy
screen
Extension
GamesPositioning vs. Marketing • Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms of money; • F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on marketing tactics; • Traction without billions on the balance sheet has to come from product positioning.
Product Positioning Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 – 3:
Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”
● “Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”
● “Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”
● “Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”
● “Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”
● “Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”
● “Can the essence of the game be communicated quickly
and clearly?”Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy III. Three case studies IV. Conclusion
Assumption Challenge (Strawman)
Assumption Challenge (Strawman) A successful game launch will look like this on the Top Downloaded chart:
Balance No Balance
Sheet Sheet
Requirement Requirement Unpaid Growth
Paid GrowthCrossy Road
Crossy Road
Hipster Whale (AUS) / Yodo1
Developer Hipster Whale (AUS)
(CHI)
Release Date: November 19, 2014 January 10, 2015
Top Downloaded Rank
4 2
Reached (US):
Days from Release to
4 8
Top Downloaded Rank:Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#225Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Quadrant 1
Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-
friction monetization, novel gameplay.Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-
friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay
depth to introduce true game economy. Once
novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad
monetization experiences rapid decay.Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-
friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay
depth to introduce true game economy. Once
novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad
monetization experiences rapid decay.
Pitfalls: Viral misfire. Game doesn’t take off due to lack
of resonance and / or untenable depth.Marvel: Contest of Champions
Marvel: Contest of Champions
Developer Kabam Kabam
Release Date: December 10, 2014 December 10, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank
3 11
Reached (US):
Days from Release to
2 7
Top Downloaded Rank:Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#10Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Quadrant 2
Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand
recognition.Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand
recognition.
Risks: Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with
fans of the game type (match 3 / build and
battle / etc.).Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand
recognition.
Risks: Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with
fans of the game type (match 3 / build and
battle / etc.).
Pitfalls: Onerous IP licensing terms prevent profitability
of marketing. Social media reach of IP owner is
overestimated.Cookie Jam
Cookie Jam
Developer SGN (USA) / NetEase (CHI) SGN (USA)
Release Date: February 27, 2014 March 29, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank
15 17
Reached (US):
Days from Release to
36 141
Top Downloaded Rank:Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#26Top Downloaded, iOS (US)
Quadrant 3
Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable
unit economics.Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable
unit economics.
Risks: Inability to scale unit economics beyond a
minimal threshold.Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable
unit economics.
Risks: Inability to scale unit economics beyond a
minimal threshold.
Pitfalls: Lack of organizational commitment to reach
consumer “break through” on IP. Lack of
analytical sophistication.Presentation Structure I. State of the Market / Current Challenges II. Product Positioning Strategy III. Three case studies IV. Conclusion
Take-aways
Take-aways • Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product;
Take-aways • Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product; • Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself;
Take-aways • Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product; • Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself; • Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale than LTV / CPI;
Take-aways • Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy accordingly, pre-product; • Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent goal unto itself; • Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale than LTV / CPI; • Don’t try to emulate a competitor’s title unless you know their financials.
Thank you, Priori Data! • Provided the data used in this presentation • Berlin-based app store analytics start-up • http://prioridata.com
Thanks! eric@mobiledevmemo.com @eric_seufert
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