MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT - SOLARPOWER EUROPE
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Myanmar: Solar Investment Opportunities Emerging Markets Task Force Report
Chair of the SolarPower Europe Emerging Markets Task Force: Stefano Mantellassi, Eni SpA. Authors: ABO Wind AG (Alden Lee, Anna Aleksanova). Coordinator of the SolarPower Europe Emerging Markets Task Force: Máté Heisz, SolarPower Europe. Contact: info@solarpowereurope.org. Acknowledgements: SolarPower Europe would like to extend a special thanks to ABO WIND AG and all Task Force members that contributed with their knowledge and experience to this report. This would never have been possible without their continuous support. Project information: The SolarPower Europe Emerging Markets Task Force was launched in March 2018 and, since then, has become an active working group of nearly 100 experts from almost 50 companies. The objective of the Task Force is to identify business and cooperation opportunities and thereby contribute to the energy transition in emerging markets outside Europe. Design: Onehemisphere, Sweden. Published: May 2019. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by SolarPower Europe. It is being furnished to the recipients for general information only. Nothing in it should be interpreted as an offer or recommendation of any products, services or financial products. This report does not constitute technical, investment, legal, tax or any other advice. Recipients should consult with their own technical, financial, legal, tax or other advisors as needed. This report is based on sources believed to be accurate. However, SolarPower Europe does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this report. SolarPower Europe assumes no obligation to update any information contained herein. SolarPower Europe will not be held liable for any direct or indirect damage incurred by the use of the information provided and will not provide any indemnities.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
FOREWORD 5
CONTEXT 7
MYANMAR ELECTRICITY MARKET 14
RECOMMENDATIONS 20
REFERENCES 22
“This report series, developed by our Emerging Markets Task Force,
provides quality market information to solar investors looking for
opportunities around the world. It will help solar companies to
better access new markets, and thus ultimately, accelerate the
global energy transition.”
Walburga Hemetsberger
CEO, SolarPower Europe
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 3
SolarPower Europe would like to thank the members of its
Emerging Markets Task Force that contributed to this report including:
Clean Energy Associates
Sponsor Members:
4 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT
FOREWORD
BY STEFANO MANTELLASSI, Vice-President Energy Solutions ENI SpA and Chair of the
SolarPower Europe Emerging Markets Task Force, and ALDEN LEE, Head of International
Solar Department, ABO Wind AG.
In March 2018, Solar Power Europe launched the Emerging Markets Task Force to identify business and
cooperation opportunities and thereby contribute to the energy transition in emerging markets outside Europe.
Since then, the Task Force has become an active working group of nearly 100 experts from almost 50 companies,
working on a suite of market reports and investigating available financing instruments for solar project
development in emerging markets.
The task force has operated through a series of physical and virtual meetings, visits in the selected markets and
conferences. We have also engaged in productive discussions with other relevant initiatives such as the Africa-EU
Renewable Energy Cooperation Programme (RECP), GET.invest and the IRENA Coalition for Action’s Business and
Investors Group. After a year of intense work, we are proud to present the Task Force’s first report on a Southeast
Asian country, Myanmar.
This report developed by ABO Wind AG, with the support of the Task Force, provides an overview of investment
opportunities for solar deployment in Myanmar. It offers a snapshot of the country’s business environment and an
overview of the major demographic and macroeconomic trends. It also addresses issues related to the country’s
credit and political risk. The report focuses on the energy context, relevant actors and the regulatory framework
for investments in renewables. The research finds that Myanmar has an incredible potential for solar energy, but
the government still has a lot of work to do to unleash the potential and to attract foreign direct investments into
Myanmar´s solar industry. Rising electricity demand, rapid demographic growth and strong neighbour solar
countries like China, India, and Thailand give Myanmar great opportunities to increase the installed solar capacity.
With the support and excellent contribution of other Task Force members, we have published additional reports on Ivory
Coast, Mozambique and Senegal. In 2019, we are working on market reports on India, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Tanzania
and Tunisia, and technical reports on digital solar and quality assurance in emerging markets.
If you want to be part of this initiative and discover new business opportunities, join SolarPower Europe's Emerging
Markets Task Force.
STEFANO MANTELLASSI ALDEN LEE
Vice-President Energy Solutions, Head of International Solar
ENI SpA. Department, ABO Wind AG.
Chair of the SolarPower Europe
Emerging Markets Task Force.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 5
GLOBAL HORIZONTAL
IRRADIATION
MYANMAR
SOURCE: World Bank, 2017 Solargis.
1. CONTEXT
WORK STREAM
MYANMAR
OFFICIAL LANGUAGE Burmese (Myanmar)
CAPITAL Naypyidaw
LARGEST CITY Yangon
CURRENCY Kyat (MMK)
SURFACE 676,578 km2
POPULATION (2017) 53.4 million
URBAN POPULATION (% TOTAL POPULATION)(2017) 29.5%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (2017) 2.2%
GDP PER CAPITA (CONSTANT 2010 US$) 1,484.20 US$
GDP GROWTH (2017) 5.7%
GDP GROWTH SOUTHEAST ASIA (2017) 5.3%
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) 0.578 (medium)
(PERMITTED) INVESTMENTS IN POWER SECTOR IN 2018 (%) 27.6%
PEOPLE USING AT LEAST BASIC DRINKING WATER SERVICES (%) 67.5%
SOURCE: IMF, ADB, etc. All data given for year 2017, if not mentioned otherwise.
ENERGY GEOGRAPHY According to the Germanwatch Global Climate Risk
Index (Germanwatch, 2019), Myanmar was one of the
Myanmar is one the most poorly electrified countries in
countries most affected by extreme weather events
Southeast Asia, with an average electrification rate of
between 1997 and 2016. Therefore, Myanmar would
only 39% at the end of 2017. Yangon, its largest city and
benefit from decentralized power generation like solar.
the former capital, consumes almost half of the country’s
electricity supply. Myanmar has tremendous solar
resources and vast hydro potential. The International DEMOGRAPHICS
Growth Centre (Energy in Myanmar, 2016) estimates the
Myanmar’s population is relatively young – according to
country’s solar potential to be 51.973 TWh per year. The
the 2014 Census, half of the population is under 30 years
Asian Development Bank assesses the opportunity for
old. However, life expectancy at birth is rising and
solar in Myanmar up to 27 GWp. The average yearly total
reached 66 years in 2016.
of PV power production varies between 1,150 kWh/kWp
and 1,600 kWh/kWp with high values in the central Despite significant progress made in poverty reduction
region. In the mountains, the power production is lower (the poverty rates decreased by 33% between
by up to 20% (or even more, due to terrain shading). 2004/2005 and 2015 from 48.1% to 32.1%, IMF), the
disparities between urban and rural areas remain very
According to other research, conducted by ESMAP (Suri, et
stark (14.5% compared to 38.8% in 2015, IMF). Around
al., 2017), Myanmar has very good potential for
half of the population continues to live under the near-
development of solar power, especially in the lowlands of
poor line (IMF Country Report No. 18/91, 2018).
the central part of the country, where demand is the highest.
Myanmar´s HDI values have increased constantly during
One of the most disaster-prone countries in the world
the last decades so that Myanmar has entered the
Myanmar is one of the most vulnerable to natural “medium” group in the year 2016, ranking now 148th out
disasters countries in the world. The country ranks 14th of 189 countries.
out of 191 countries in INFORM 2019 Risk Index (INFORM
Index for Risk Management, 2019); it is highly exposed
to floods, earthquakes and tsunamis.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 7
1 CONTEXT / CONTINUED
FIGURE 1 COMPARISON: EDUCATION MYANMAR VS. THAILAND
0.8
0.6
Education Index
0.4
0.2
Myanmar
0 Thailand
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SOURCE: United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Reports.
MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT As projected by Coface, Myanmar’s economy growth will
continue to be one of the most dynamic in the region.
Myanmar is one of the fastest growing countries in
The agricultural sector which accounts for nearly a third
Southeast Asia: as projected by the International
of the GDP is benefiting from public investments,
Monetary Fund, the country’s GDP growth for 2018-2019
although the productivity remains quite low. Growth is
is expected to be in the range of 6.9%-7.0% (IMF, 2018).
also stimulated by Chinese investments in
Myanmar is working on a series of economic reforms, infrastructure.1 Economic growth will also persist thanks
one of them being the implementation of the Myanmar to the manufacturing sector (textile, automotive,
Sustainable Development Plan. machinery and electronics) and external demand.
FIGURE 2 REAL GDP GROWTH (2000-2022)
16
12
%
8
4
Myanmar
Southeast Asia
0 Emerging and Developing Asia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
SOURCE: The International Monetary Fund.
1 In September 2018 the Government of Myanmar signed a memorandum of
understanding with China on the construction of the China-Myanmar
Economic Corridor. The countries are intending to collaborate in many
sectors: from infrastructure, construction and manufacturing to agriculture,
transport, telecommunications, as well as research and technology.
8 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT
FIGURE 3 INFLATION RATE, AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICES
70
60
50
% annual change
40
30
20
10
0
Myanmar
-10 Southeast Asia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
SOURCE: The International Monetary Fund.
The manufacturing sector in particular has a growing As instructed by the Central Bank of Myanmar (CBM),
demand for low-cost electricity, which solar could provide. state and regional government as well as private
businesses are to undertake local transactions in
Because of its strategic geographical location, Myanmar
Myanmar Kyat. Since the high volatility and low
is benefiting from proximity to China, Thailand, India
convertibility of Kyat, investors are facing significant
and other fast-growing countries in ASEAN. Half of the
exchange rate risks. According to MHM Yangon, the
trade is with China, while India is the third largest
hedging opportunities for currency risks in the country
neighboring trade partner and one of the main investors
are quite limited.
in Myanmar. The countries are working on improving air,
sea and road connectivity and boosting trade. The results of the latest World Bank survey of economic
conditions in Myanmar, conducted in February-March
Thailand is also a major trade and investment partner
2018, points out that businesses in the country are in
of Myanmar. Thailand is developing its Eastern
general optimistic about the future, referring to
European Corridor (EEC), in order to improve
improved availability of credit, growing employment,
connectivity with other ASEAN countries, including
public consumption and private investments (World
Thailand’s eastern seaboard to Myanmar’s Dawei deep-
Bank Group, 2018).
sea port project. Around 75% of domestic gas
production is exported to China and Thailand. Gas Myanmar has double tax treaties with India, Laos,
exports account for the majority of Myanmar’s GDP. Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, the United Kingdom,
Strong exports reduced trade and current account and Vietnam. Consequently, many investments are are
deficits in 2017/2018 (World Bank Group, 2018). flowing to the country via Singapore, which would also
be a convenient hub for foreign solar investors. The
After a period of relative currency stability in 2017,
country also has economic agreements with China,
Myanmar experienced rapid depreciation of Kyat
Cuba, Kuwait and Singapore and economic and trade
against major currencies, such as the US dollar and
agreements with Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, New
Yuan, driven by increased prices on imported goods
Zealand and Turkey (KPMG, 2018).
(including fuel) and rising public salaries. The inflation
rate also peaked, exceeding 8% in October 2018.
Recognizing that further development of monetary and
fiscal policies is required in the country, the IMF in its
2023 projections expects the inflation rates to remain
relatively stable.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 91 CONTEXT / CONTINUED
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT the main issues. The access to credit remains very poor,
while state-owned banks dominate the underdeveloped
According to the Heritage Foundation’s Index of
financial sector. The prevalence of state-owned
Economic Freedom 2018, Myanmar ranked 33rd among
enterprises is limiting foreign investment in the country.
43 countries in the Asia–Pacific region, and its overall
Myanmar is also struggling with the enforcement of
score is below the regional and world averages, which
contracts and protection of minority investors (The
allows to conclude that the country is economically
Heritage Foundation). Since local debt financing and
“mostly unfree”. The main concern is the conflicts over
international investors are vital for solar projects, this is a
land titles and poorly established property rights.
rather challenging situation for the growth of the industry.
Corruption, especially among the police, is also one of
FIGURE 4 ECONOMIC FREEDOM SCORE
53.9 (up 1.4 points)
50 60 70 80
0 100
61.1: World average
61.0: Regional average (Asia-Pacific region)
NOTABLE SUCCESSES: TRADE FREEDOM AND GOVERNMENT SIZE
CONCERNS: RULE OF LAW, INVESTMENT FREEDOM, AND FINANCIAL FREEDOM
OVERALL SCORE CHANGE SINCE 2014: +7.4
SOURCE: The Heritage Foundation (2019).
Myanmar also scores rather poorly compared to other previous years, the business conditions for getting
countries in East Asia and the Pacific region in the credit, protecting minority investors and dealing with
ranking of Doing Business (Ease of Doing Business in enforcement of contracts make Myanmar one of the
Myanmar, 2018). Although the ease of doing business most difficult countries for doing business in the world
significantly improved in 2015-2016 compared to (Ease of Doing Business in Myanmar).
FIGURE 5 DOING BUSINESS EAST ASIA & PACIFIC, RANK (2018)
Malaysia
Indonesia
India
Lao PDR
Myanmar
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Rank
SOURCE: Doing Business, The World Bank Group (2018).
10 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORTFIGURE 6 RANKINGS ON DOING BUSINESS (2018), BY TOPIC
200
150
Rank
100
50
0
Starting a Dealing with Getting Registering Getting Protecting Paying Trading Enforcing Resolving
business construction electricty property credit minority taxes across contracts insolvency
permits investors borders
SOURCE: Doing Business, the World Bank Group.
Banking sector Project financing
From 1963 to 1990 Myanmar’s banking system was There is no established practice for project financing in
completely state-owned. However, according to the Myanmar so far. Most of the project finance is realized
International Monetary Fund, private banks now by international development banks and institutions,
account for more than half of banking system assets. In such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the
2003, Myanmar suffered a severe banking crisis that was World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
triggered by the collapse of ‘informal finance KfW, the German development bank, is also realizing
companies’ that offered high rates of return, while projects in the framework of the Rural Electrification
engaging in highly speculative investments (IMF Country Programme. According to the Myanmar Legal Services
Report No. 18/91, 2018). Confidence in the financial Limited, the local banking sector has very limited capital
system was weakened by large-scale deposit to provide financial services required to support project
withdrawals, despite the preventive measures of the financing in the country.
Central Bank of Myanmar. Lack of access to deposits
ADB participated in the development of Myanmar
made it difficult for companies to make payments to
Companies Law, enacted in December 2017, while IFC
suppliers and employees. It took almost a decade for
supported the implementation of Myanmar Investment
the banking system to recover and it still remains fragile.
Law, which came into force in October 2016. Both
Nevertheless, the sector began to open up in 2015/2016 organizations also helped the Ministry of Electricity and
when the first branches of foreign banks were granted Energy (MOEE) to draft the first PPA agreement for a CCGT
banking licenses. In December 2017, foreign banks were power plant, located in Myingyan. This was the first
permitted to provide export financing to local project awarded by a competitive bidding procedure.
corporations. The Central Bank of Myanmar is planning
As reported by the MHM Yangon, “any investment that is
to grant more banking licenses in 2019. As of today,
strategically important, capital intensive, uses state-
there are four state-run banks, 24 private banks and 13
owned land, or may have a large impact on the
foreign banks active in Myanmar.
environment or local community, requires permission
The private sector’s credit share of the GDP is currently from the Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC) -
around 25%. 95% of private sector lending is to large (Project Finance Report 2018 - Myanmar, 2018).” A foreign
enterprises, while households and SMEs rely on credits company also requires the MIC permit in order to obtain
from non-bank and informal lenders at higher interest land rights authorization for the initial term of 50 years
rates (IMF Country Report No. 18/91, 2018). with two 10-year extensions. Power projects that are
bigger than 30 MW, additionally require MOEE approval.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 111 CONTEXT / CONTINUED
Legislation and regulatory framework • No custom duties in “Free Zones”; relief or
exemptions on imported materials or equipment;
The Myanmar Companies Law (MCL) was enacted on
December 6, 2017 by the Directorate of Investment and • Some reliefs and exemptions from value-added tax
Company Administration (DICA), and entered into force in and commercial tax;
August 2018. The law stipulates the provisions on
• The right to open foreign currency accounts with
registration and incorporation of companies (including
approved banks.
overseas corporations) in Myanmar. MCL allows for up to
35% of foreign shareholding in companies classified as As reported by Myanmar Times (Myanmar Times, 2019),
Myanmar companies (Project Finance Report 2018 - Thilawa SEZ has attracted US$1.5 billion of foreign
Myanmar, 2018). investments to date.
There is no specific legal framework for renewable energy
investments. The development of medium and small POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CONTEXT
power projects (of capacity lower than 30 MW), that are
After almost five decades of military regime, Myanmar is
not connected to the national electricity grid, requires the
undergoing a period of political liberalization. The first
permission of state and regional governments.
democratic elections with participation of all opposition
Tax exemptions can be granted to the company by the parties took place in 2012 and then again in 2015. National
Myanmar Investment Commission for periods of three, League for Democracy (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi,
five or seven years, depending on the place of investment. became State Counselor (Coface). The next general
elections are scheduled for 2021.
The Economist Intelligence Unit also points out low
government effectiveness and high legal/regulatory, as The declared aim of the government to pursue inclusive
well as infrastructure risks. economic growth and Myanmar’s Sustainable
Development Targets, however, is affected by the
Special Economic Zones (SEZ)
military conflict with the Rohingya minority in Rakhine
The Myanmar Government enacted the Special Economic State. There are more than 135 distinct ethnic groups
Zone Law in 2014. There are currently three SEZs under living in Myanmar. According to the 2014 Census, almost
development: Kyauk Phyu in Rakhine State, Dawei in the 88% of the population was identifying as Buddhist. The
Thanintharyi Region and the Thilawa in Yangon Region. Rohingya people were historically denied citizenship
According to DICA, SEZs may be “Free Zones”, “Promotion status and regarded as illegal immigrants. Since August
Zones” and others. “Free Zones” are deemed to be 2017, more than 700,000 Rohingya have fled the
situated outside the country and subject to custom duty country, mostly to Bangladesh. The humanitarian crisis
and other tax exemptions, while “Promotion Zones” are resulted in the EU member countries, the United States
based mainly on the domestic market (DICA). and Australia implementing economic and political
sanctions on Myanmar (Coface). Many international
Among others, the law offers the following incentives to
organizations actively involved in the country have
investors (Myanmar Legal, 2018):
reconsidered their development policies there.
• 100% foreign ownership;
Myanmar therefore remains among the countries with
• The right to lease land for 50 years with an extension high political and business environment risks for
of 25 years; enterprises, as the military continue to dominate
politics and ethnic tensions remain unresolved (Euler
• 5-7 years income tax exemption, depending on
Hermes Global).
whether SEZ defined as a “Free Zone” or “Promotion
Zone”;
12 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORTFIGURE 7 RISK RATINGS
CURRENT CURRENT PREVIOUS PREVIOUS
RATING SCORE RATING SCORE
Overall assessment D 62 D 62
Security risk C 50 C 50
Political stability risk C 60 C 60
Government effectiveness risk E 81 E 81
Legal & regulatory risk E 83 E 83
Macroeconomic risk B 30 B 30
Foreign trade & payments risk D 61 D 61
Financial risk D 67 D 67
Tax policy risk C 44 C 44
Labour market risk D 61 D 61
Infrastructure risk D 80 D 80
NOTE: E=most risky; 100=most risky. The risk ratings model is run once a quarter. SOURCE: The Economist Intelligence Unit 2018.
FIGURE 8 POLITICAL RISK INDICATORS (SACE)
Expropriation and breach of contract risk
80
60
40
20
Average political risk 0 War and civil disturbance risk
Myanmar
Southeast Asia
Transfer and convertibility risk
SOURCE: (SACE) Data (2017) Risk Map.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 132 MYANMAR ELECTRICITY MARKET
COUNTRY ENERGY SECTOR SITUATION scheduled load shedding is needed, especially during
the dry season. The problem of secure power supply
Because of poor electricity access, especially in rural
remains especially acute because most of the produced
areas of Myanmar, wood, kerosene, candles and diesel
electricity is exported to Thailand and China.
generators are still the main sources of lighting among
the majority of the country’s population. The Myanmar Energy Master Plan, introduced in
December 2015 with the help of ADB, provides
The government of Myanmar, with the help of the World
projections for long-term future energy demand and
Bank, has developed a National Electrification Plan
fuel supply mix up to the year 2030. The plan foresees
(NEP, 2015) that calls for universal electricity access by
that by 2030 Myanmar, which is currently—thanks to
2030, or 7.2 million new connections. In accordance
large natural gas resources—one of the main energy
with the plan enacted in November 2015, the
suppliers in the region, will become a net importer of
government expects to reach 50% electrification in
energy. While the plan offers scenarios that could
2020, 75% in 2025 and 100% in 2030. The US$ 400
reduce the country’s dependency on hydro energy
million loan for the project is provided by the World
through increased production from coal, the share of
Bank, while its realization is carried out by the Ministry
solar and wind in the total energy mix in 2030 is
of Electricity and Energy (MOEE) and the Department of
expected to be very modest at around 1.2%. However,
Rural Development (DRD) in the Ministry of Agriculture,
recent plans of the Ministry of Electricity and Energy
Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI). The plan aims to
(MOEE) to diversify the country’s power mix raise
facilitate both grid extension and installation of mini-
optimism for the future of the solar sector in the country.
grid and solar home systems.
The ministry has introduced quite ambitious renewable
Myanmar’s energy mix is dominated by hydro sources energy targets – to increase the share of renewables in
(61%, or 3,221 MW), followed by gas (36%, or 1,919 MW) electricity production to 8% by 2021 and to 12% by
and coal (3%, or 120 MW).2 Because of a very high share 2025. The MOEE is currently working on a draft of the
of hydropower production, which is very seasonal, new reform (Myanmar Times, 2018).
FIGURE 9 ELECTRICITY OUTPUT, COMPARISON
200,000
180,000
Total Electricity Output (GWh)
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000 Myanmar
Bangladesh
40,000
Cambodia
20,000 Thailand
0 Vietnam
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014
SOURCE: Sustainable Energy for All.
2 May 2017 estimate, provided by the Ministry of Electricity and Energy
(Ministry of Electricity and Energy, 2017).
14 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORTFIGURE 10 DEMAND FORECAST RESULTS
16,000
14,542
14,000
12,944
12,000 11,520
10,253
10,000
9,125 9,100
8,121 8,353
3,075 MW
MW
8,000 (23.05.2017) 7,668
7,227 7,039
6,431 6,461
5,723 5,930
6,000 5,443
5,092 4,996
4,531 4,585
4,032 4,208
4,000 3,192
3,587
2,840 3,862
2,248 2,527 3,503
1,850 2,055 3,178
2,000 1,600 2,617 2,884
2,376
2,157
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Year
Low case High case
SOURCE: The Ministry of Electricity and Energy, Presentation “The Role of Renewable Energy in Myanmar’s Future Energy Mix”.
The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), As reported by the Myanmar Times in June 2018, Yangon
together with the Ministry of Electric Power (MOEP), consumes around 1.5 GW of electricity, which is half of
worked on the creation of the National Electricity Master the country’s electricity output, and its demand is
Plan in 2015. The installed capacity in the country was expected to double by 2021-22 (Myanmar Times, 2018).
projected to rise from 5 GW (2017)3 to around 15 GW by In order to meet the growing power demand,
2030. However, as reported by the MOEE in its more investments in the amount of approximately 1 billion
recent presentation (The Role of Renewable Energy in Kyat will be required to develop infrastructure, including
Myanmar’s Future Energy Mix, 2017), the plan is currently transmission lines and substations. According to the
being updated. The new estimate of power demand in source, there are also plans to construct 77 66 kV
2030 is 23.6 GW, which creates a gap of almost 8 GW substations between 2018-19 and 2021-22. The
necessary to be filled in order to avoid power shortages Government is planning to approach the Asian
in the future. The gap could potentially be met by the Development Bank in order to upgrade several 230 kV
mix of solar and wind, plus biomass energy. substations across the region.
According to the study on solar resources and solar PV
ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE potential in Myanmar, conducted by the World Bank,
most of the population (75%-85%) lives within a 25-50
Due to the poor electricity infrastructure, Myanmar is
km radius of HV power lines, which overall are good
suffering from significant power losses, especially in the
premises for developing medium- and large-scale solar
distribution system, which reached between 20.5%-25%
projects in the country.
in 2012-2014 (The World Bank Data).
JICA has been actively supporting the development of
the national transmission grid in Myanmar, particularly
carrying out projects in Mandalay, Bago, and Naypyitaw
regions (JICA).
3 Peak demand in 2017 was ~3000 MW.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 152 MYANMAR ELECTRICITY MARKET / CONTINUED
FIGURE 11 TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION LINES AND SUBSTATIONS (AS OF AUGUST 2014)
VOLTAGE (kV) LENGTH (KM) SUBSTATIONS CAPACITY (MVA)
230 3,156 32 4,105
132 2,189 21 1,248
66 3,003 188 2,421
Total 8,348 241 7,774
SOURCE: Department of Hydropower Implementation Ministry of Electric Power.
NATIONAL GRID SYSTEM
MYANMAR
INDIA
BHAMO
SHWEGU CHINA
KYAUKPAHTO
NGATPYAWDINE
THAPHANSEIK
LETPANHLA
BANGLADESH
MONYWA
SEDAWGYI
AUNGPINLE
NYAUNGBINGYI PYINOOLWIN
MANDALAY
PAKOKKU MYINGYAN ZAWGYI-2
KINDA ZAWGYI-1
KYUNGCHAUNG
NYAUNGOO
WAZI SALE AUNGTHAPYE
CHAUK THAZI KALAW
LAOS
MANN MAGWAY
PYINMANA
TAUNGDWINGYI
BALUCHAUNG-1
KYAWSWA BALUCHAUNG-2
THAYET
SHWE DAUNG
PYAY THAILAND
SINDE TAUNGOO
MYANAUNG
ZAUNGTU
HINTHADA BAGO
HLAWGA
YEGYI THAKETA THATON
PATHEIN YWAMA PHAAN
AHLONE
MAWLAMYINE
MYAUNGMYA
LEGEND
230 kV Transmission Line
132 kV Transmission Line
66 kV Transmission Line
33 kV Transmission Line
Substation
Gas Turbine Power Station
Hydro-power Station
Steam Turbine Power Station
SOURCE: Global Energy Network Institute (GENI).
16 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORTOFF-GRID RENEWABLE ENERGY DEMONSTRATION PROJECT
MYANMAR
SOURCE: Myanmar Off-Grid Renewable Energy Demonstration Project funded by ADB (Asian Developemnt Bank).
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 172 MYANMAR ELECTRICITY MARKET / CONTINUED
ACTORS, TARIFFS AND REGULATORY NETWORK NEW DEVELOPMENTS FOR SOLAR POWER
The key regulatory institutions in Myanmar are the Large-scale PV-projects
Myanmar Investment Commission, the Directorate of
According to different sources, Myanmar’s large-scale
Investment and Company Administration and the Central
solar pipeline is estimated to be between 470 MWp and
Bank of Myanmar. The main regulatory body in the energy
1.5 GWp (PV Magazine Global, 2018).
sector is the Ministry of Electricity and Energy (MOEE).
Several PPAs were concluded with the MOEE in 2016.
Myanmar has one of the lowest electricity tariffs in the
Among them, the 220 MWp Minbu project, with the first
world. The average power tariff in 2017 was $51/MWh
50 MWp phase expected to be completed in the first
(69 Kyat/kWh). Residential prices in Myanmar are 35
quarter 2019. Thailand-backed Green Earth Power, GEP
Kyat/kWh for the first 100 units, 40 Kyat/kWh for the next
(Myanmar) Co. Ltd has signed a 30-year PPA with the
100 units, and 50 Kyat/kWh for all units after that.
MOEE for 150 Kyat per unit (likely meaning ~€8.6 ct/kWh).
According to the Myanmar Times, the average cost of
The US$275 million project is planned to be realized in
supplying 1 kWh in 2016/17 fiscal year was 96 Kyat,
three 50 MWp phases and the last 70 MWp phase. Two
which means that the government is losing between
Thailand-based construction companies were initially
59-74 Kyat for every unit sold to residential consumers
engaged for the first phase of the project, which in turn
(Myanmar Times, 2018).
contracted a Chinese state company specialising in New
IPP projects in Myanmar could be implemented on Energy, CTIEC Ltd. as EPC with its strategic PV partner
either joint venture (JV) or build-operate-transfer (BOT) WEink Energy Ltd providing EPC management services.
basis (Myanmar Legal, 2018). Regulatory approvals of As reported by PwC and the Myanmar Times, Synergy
the following institutions are required in order to Business Development Co. Ltd. (SBD) and its foreign
develop and implement the project: partner have submitted a proposal to the MOEE for the
construction of a 200 MWp solar power plant in Meiktila
• Attorney General’s Office (AG),
Township, Mandalay (PwC Myanmar, 2018).
• Ministry of Planning and Finance (MOPF),
According to PV Magazine (PV Magazine Global, 2018),
• Myanmar Investment Commission (MIC). Thailand-based Modern Energy Management (MEM) is
planning to develop a 130 MWp project in Myanmar. The
• Ministry of National Resources and Environmental
plant is expected to come online in Q4 2019. No further
Conservation (MONREC).
details are known so far.
More than 30 laws govern land management, at least 20
government agencies are involved in land issues, at both
Mini-grid and off-grid solar projects
national (Union) and provincial (State) levels. MIC is
responsible for granting land to foreign investors. A large number of international development
organizations, banks and corporations are working on
various rural electrification projects in Myanmar.
FIGURE 12 LARGE-SCALE PV PROJECTS IN MYANMAR
PROJECT INSTALLED CAPACITY LOCATION (REGION/STATE) REMARKS
(MWp)
Nabuai and Wandwin 300 Mandalay Region MOA (Memorandum of Association) & PPA
Minbu 220 Mandalay Region MOA & PPA
Shwe Myo 10 Nay Pyi Taw MOU (Memorandum of Understanding)
Sagaing and Mandalay 880 Sagaing and Mandalay region MOU
Thapaysan 100 Nay Pyi Taw MOU
SOURCE: PV Magazine, with reference to Myanmar Ministry of Electricity and Energy.
18 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORTIn the framework of one of its power/infrastructure The German Society for International Cooperation (GIZ)
development projects in the country, the Asian completed its project “Promoting Rural Electrification
Development Bank has installed solar mini-grid systems in Myanmar”, which was commissioned by the German
in 12 villages located in the Dry Zone (Magway, Mandalay Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and
and Sagaing regions), and developed a geospatial plan Development (BMZ). The project, implemented during
for off-grid renewable energy investment opportunities. 2016-2018, also supported NEP and aimed at creating
80% of installation costs were financed by ADB, the policy framework and capacity building, especially in
remaining 20% was contributed by the villagers. the area of renewable energy-based mini-grids (GIZ).
As mentioned in the ADB’s report (Asian Development Pact, a non-profit international organization with the
Bank, 2017), solar irradiance can go down by as much support of ABB, Chevron and Shell is working on
as 50% in the rainy season, hence, areas with heavy and providing Myanmar’s local communities with solar
prolonged rainy seasons may be less suitable for solar. home systems and mini-grids (Pact, 2018).
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) also Overall, the power sector accounted for 27.8% of
supports the Myanmar’s National Electrification Plan by Foreign Direct Investment in Myanmar during the period
implementing its Lighting Myanmar program in the 1988-2017 (US20.7 billion)(EuroCham Myanmar, 2017).
country, which focuses on supplying local households
The UK has established a £15 million (30 billion Kyat)
with solar lanterns, solar home systems and potentially
fund that will be used until 2020 for carbon reduction
off-grid systems. The project was launched in 2016 and
and renewable energies in ASEAN countries, including
is planned to be completed in 2022 (Lighting Global).
Myanmar. The fund’s sources will also be directed on
conducting feasibility studies for wind and solar projects
(Myanmar Times, 2018).
FIGURE 13 PILOT PROJECTS WITH RENEWABLE ENERGY MINI-GRIDS
TOWNSHIP VILLAGE NUMBER OF POPULATION PV CAPACITY BATTERY TOTAL COST TYPE
HOUSEHOLDS (kW) CAPACITY (USD)
(kWh)
MAGWAY REGION
Thayet Gon Ma Ni 197 931 7.2 57.6 73,350 Stand-alone
Sinbaungwe Kone Thar 270 2,170 8.7 63.3 82,368 Stand-alone
Minbu Pauk Lay Pin 89 336 4.9 57.6 44,100 Diesel hybrid
Yenangyaung Koke Ko Gwa 330 1,654 13.0 92.2 102,300 Stand-alone
Salin Kone Char 143 625 6.5 38.4 50,832 Stand-alone
Pauk Mone Kone 157 836 6.0 46.1 50,856 Stand-alone
MANDALAY REGION
Kyaukse Myin Chi Naing 317 925 10.8 86.4 98,580 Grid ready
Nyaung-U San Kan 200 977 9.8 115.2 75,000 Stand-alone
Kyaukpadaung Kyet Su Taw 103 484 4.9 57.6 Stand-alone
87,980
Taungtha Son Lun 110 654 4.9 57.6 Stand-alone
SAGAING REGION
Sagaing U Aing Kyun 170 569 6.0 46.1 Stand-alone
102,770
Khin-U Yauk Thit Kan 165 668 7.0 61.4 Stand-alone
SOURCE: Developing Renewable Energy Mini-Grids in Myanmar.
SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 193 RECOMMENDATIONS
FOR INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS Tenders are an important tool, since the heavily
subsidized tariffs in Myanmar are a main obstacle for
Compared to other ASEAN countries like Thailand,
renewable energy developers to invest in projects which
Vietnam, and Indonesia and compared to the vast solar
compete with consumer prices.
potential of Myanmar – especially in the central region
where demand is high – the amount of new constructions It is fundamental to clarify the rules of engagement in
of solar power plants is expected to be rather small in tenders. Tenders should be based on clear rules and
Myanmar for the next ten years. Also, in terms of general technical parameters on the nature of the projects such as
business conditions, Myanmar is not yet considered an size, targets, location and timeline, in order to produce the
attractive country for foreign direct investments. expected outcomes and to attract participants.
However, there is strong demand for electricity, The participation of free riders to the calls should be
especially in rural areas, which might offer business discouraged: pre-qualification criteria such as bid bonds
opportunities. Frequent power cuts also result in certain in tendering should aim to attract only those actors able
demand for independent power production. to take responsibility for the projects. Selection criteria
should be designed in a way that a sufficient amount of
Still, there are no standard terms and conditions for
companies with experience in renewable energy will
PPAs, therefore prospective investors should design a
participate in the tender.
bankable PPA. They should also envisage instruments
to hedge against currency risk, inflation and economic The adoption of a PPA in the new regulatory framework
volatility. should follow international standards. This type of PPA
includes inflation, exchange rate and default risk of the
While there is currently no sufficient legal framework for
sovereign counterparts. Moreover, financial
PV power plants, the government has announced to
development institutions should be part of the contract
issue regulations during 2019. Therefore, it is
providing financial guarantees for the counterparts.
recommended for investors to wait for the publication
of these rules before entering the market. The regulatory framework should also clarify and
simplify procedures for land access. Conflicts over land
Among European organizations, the German Chamber
titles and poorly established property rights are a main
of Commerce Abroad (AHK) seems to have the best
concern for investors. In addition, the rules to get access
insight into Myanmar’s solar PV market, so it might be
to the grid should be clear and transparent.
helpful to get in touch with them for further information.
In general, the enforcement of contracts as well as the
protection of minority investors must be improved. This
FOR LOCAL PUBLIC DECISION-MAKERS
is because potential investors might otherwise consider
It is most important for Myanmar to re-evaluate the Myanmar as a high-risk investment, which would cause
current plan to increase electricity output mainly by higher electricity prices.
building coal-fired power stations. A careful analysis will
most likely show that the life-time cost for solar PV
FOR LOCAL PRIVATE STAKEHOLDERS
power plants is more economical. In addition, solar
power can effectively counter-balance the electricity Capacity building and skills should be the focus of
shortage during the dry season, while not occupying too stakeholders working locally to increase Myanmar’s
much grid capacity during the rainy season. potential to attract investments in solar PV. Training and
skills could open up opportunities not only in the
The improvement of framework conditions for doing
operations, but also in local production of materials
business in solar PV would be another important step
applied in PV projects, e.g. mounting systems and fences.
to develop Myanmar´s potential. Currently the
prevalence of state-owned enterprises is limiting foreign Increased work opportunities, skills and know-how
investment in the country. Tendering renewable energy transfer would also contribute to support renewable
projects with non-discriminatory and transparent energies’ deployment politically.
allocation schemes – instead of signing bilateral
As solar projects advance in the country, interested parties
agreements – would support project developments and
should seek partnerships with experienced counterparts
attract investments.
to ensure a socially sustainable value chain.
20 / SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORTFOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCE INSTITUTIONS
The access to credit remains very poor, while state-
owned banks dominate the underdeveloped financial
sector. Therefore, multilateral development finance
institutions such as the World Bank and the Asian
Development Bank, as well as national development
banks such as the German KfW bank, are involved in the
energy sector of Myanmar. Their financial, technical and
governance support currently drives investments in
renewables and even the infrastructure to enable small
as well as utility scale solar power plants. Furthermore,
their presence reassures investors concerned by the
country’s macroeconomic fundamentals and
contributes to share best practices.
Project financing should be established for Myanmar’s
solar PV projects. The local banking sector has very
limited capital to provide financial services for projects.
Therefore, development finance institutions are key
players in Myanmar and should continue to assist the
development of a sustainable market for private
investments. In the future they should support the market
with guarantees to attract foreign direct investment.
Development finance institutions’ long-term
commitment to the country contributes to providing
credibility to national policies and their country
strategies are taken into high consideration by
international investors. Technical assistance programs
and other forms of support from international
development organisations are key to improve the
energy access rate in the continent.
Thus, development finance institutions have a central
role to play in easing investment conditions for
renewable energies in Myanmar. Credit enhancement
mechanisms can play a central role in making
renewable electricity projects financially sustainable.
Commercial or sovereign-backed guarantees provide
the security that the energy produced and sold to the
national utility will be paid so that costs can be
recovered over the project’s long lifetime.
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SolarPower Europe / MYANMAR: SOLAR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES - EMERGING MARKETS TASK FORCE REPORT / 23“There is huge potential for the development of solar in emerging
markets, where different paths to the sustainable energy transition
are possible: the Task Force will allow members to analyse and
benchmark the accessibility of selected markets, untangle barriers
to investment and engage with local stakeholders”.
Stefano Mantellassi - Eni
Emerging Markets Task Force Chair
SolarPower Europe – Leading the Energy Transition
Rue d’Arlon 69-71, 1040 Brussels, Belgium
T +32 2 709 55 20 / F +32 2 725 32 50
info@solarpowereurope.org / www.solarpowereurope.orgYou can also read
