Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.

 
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
Continuous Modular Strategic Planning
October 2020

• Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study,
  October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
02

   Contents
   Part A: Executive Summary                                                 03
   Part B: Where are we now? – An Introduction                               06
   Part C: Where are we going? – The Demand for Rail                         11
   Part D: How do we get there? – A Strategy for the Liverpool City Region   16
   Part E: Summary and Conclusions                                           21
   Appendix A: Glossary                                                      23
   Appendix B: Reference Material                                            24

Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                               October 2020
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
03

Part A Executive Summary
Highlights
• The Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study is a key part of the
  rail industry’s Continuous Modular Strategic Planning process
• It sets out proposals and choices for funders for the next 10 to
  30 years
At the heart of a vibrant region                                 The challenge of accommodating passenger demand
The Merseyrail network is at the heart of the Liverpool          is most acute at Liverpool’s bustling, underground city
City Region’s public transport system. It provides some 34       centre stations. Liverpool Central, in particular, is a
million passengers a year with access to employment,             constrained site due to the layout of the station, the
education, tourism, culture and leisure opportunities.           volume of passengers and the congestion associated
                                                                 with the mix of flows between the Northern and Wirral
The network is one of the most reliable and highest              line platforms. Consequently, the study must identify
performing strategic routes in the UK (96% Public                potential solutions to address these issues.
Performance Measure Moving Annual Average,
                                                                 Providing a basis for future strategy development
November - December 2019). Benefiting from the long-
term Merseyrail franchise, overseen by Liverpool City            This study provides a clear, compelling way forward for
Region Combined Authority, the network is a significant          the Merseyrail network. It is reflected within the
part of the wider success story of the region. This reflects     Liverpool City Region’s own Long Term Rail Strategy
Merseyrail’s role in supporting the renaissance of               and will support the Rail Network Enhancements
Liverpool City Centre and the region’s increasingly vibrant      Pipeline.
economy. That said, meeting this growing demand is not           Whilst important to the future of the Liverpool City
without its challenges.                                          Region’s transport system, however, the Merseyrail
Serving a busy, growing city                                     network is only one component of the rail strategy for
Merseyrail provides high frequency services to the north         the Liverpool City Region.
of the city centre via the ‘Northern Line’ to Southport,         The ‘City Lines’, providing more frequent and longer-
Ormskirk and Kirkby, as well as Hunts Cross to the south         distance services from Liverpool Lime Street to the
east of the city centre. The ‘Wirral Line’ serves routes         east, are not within the scope of this report. However,
between Liverpool City Centre and New Brighton, West             the study did need to consider whether any additional
Kirby, Chester and Ellesmere Port.                               or different use of the Merseyrail network was required
This busy, intensive service is operated by a train fleet        in order to alleviate pressure on Liverpool Lime Street
which, at the time of writing, is amongst the oldest             station and the approaches to it, whilst meeting
passenger rolling stock in use on the UK national rail           demand and other ‘conditional outputs’. The study
network and is near life-expired. Merseyrail runs through        found that with the recently delivered capacity
densely populated urban areas and crosses the River              enhancement (delivering an additional platform and
Mersey, with significant sections of the network in tunnels.     remodelled approach tracks), Liverpool Lime Street and
Adding capacity to the existing network through more             the approaches to it are able to meet forecast
trains, or even the traditional solution of longer trains, can   passenger demand and deliver the expected level of
therefore be difficult, costly and disruptive to passengers      train service at least until 2026.
and to the region. Utilising available network capacity in       However, a strategic approach to the longer-term
the most efficient and effective manner, with a continued        future of Liverpool Lime Street and the City Lines will
focus on passenger and public safety, is fundamental to          be needed to consider the emerging NPR proposition,
this study.                                                      alongside HS2 train services, and emerging plans for
                                                                 the development and regeneration of Liverpool city
                                                                 centre.

October 2020                                                                        Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
04

                                                             most acute issue”. Significant work has taken place to
 Scope                                                       de-clutter usable platform space and provide refurbished
 • Merseyrail Northern and Wirral Lines, plus                escalators (on the Northern Line), which have helped to
   potential extensions                                      improve passenger circulation. Current passenger levels
                                                             are manageable, albeit very high at peak times,
 • Investment priorities for delivery by 2024
                                                             particularly on Saturdays, and when other major events
 • Strategic options for demand and connectivity             are held in the city region.
   to 2043
                                                             If the forecast demand on the Merseyrail network up to
 The strategy for the Merseyrail network                     and beyond 2024 is to be met, significant improvements
 • Make efficient use of the existing rail                   to passenger capacity and circulation will be required
   infrastructure                                            within the next five years. City centre development in
                                                             close proximity to Liverpool Central only reinforces the
 • Deliver capacity to meet demand and sustain               importance of an intervention which will support and
   economic growth                                           facilitate economic growth, whilst highlighting the
 • Minimise the cost and disruption of                       requirement for an integrated and collaborative approach
   infrastructure investment                                 to spatial planning in and around the station.
 • Improve the service and safety for passengers             The key strategic infrastructure intervention is therefore
                                                             to deliver greater passenger capacity at Liverpool Central,
                                                             with options in development to understand in more detail
Meeting growing demand through strategic                     the costs and benefits.
investment in new trains
                                                             Without such a scheme to improve passenger capacity
The cornerstone of the study for the future of the
                                                             and throughput, it is likely that congestion would require
Merseyrail network is Merseytravel’s procurement of a
                                                             significant controls on passenger flows into the station by
new rolling stock fleet, which is currently in production.
                                                             2024. During the course of the early 2020’s, delays to
The new fleet will come into operation in the early
                                                             services and station closures to manage crowding would
2020s.
                                                             become increasingly common, emphasising the
The specification for the new fleet allows it to             importance of an appropriate intervention.
accommodate approximately 60% more passengers
                                                             Elsewhere on the network, this study identifies the need
per train, alongside improvements in the on-board
                                                             for further city centre station strategy development in the
environment. As a result, the new fleet is capable of
                                                             context of forecast demand and the emerging High Speed
meeting forecast passenger demand up to 2043,
                                                             2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) propositions.
without the need to provide additional services.
                                                             Identifying longer-term options for additional
The new rolling stock can also enable safety                 connectivity and demand
improvements
                                                             This study process identified ‘conditional outputs’ of
Platform-train interface improvements are an integral
                                                             frequency, journey time and connectivity which – if
component of the introduction of the new fleet. The
                                                             affordable, value-for-money solutions could be found –
new trains feature a sliding step to reduce the stepping
                                                             would help the rail network to do its job of supporting
distance between carriage and platform, and other
                                                             economic growth in the region. The study found that the
train-borne safety features to further mitigate risk.
                                                             relevant conditional outputs can be delivered on the
Collaborative approach to infrastructure investment          existing network, with the current structure of services,
This strategic investment in the new train fleet is          with the exception of stakeholders’ aspirations for
supported by enhancements to the infrastructure of           additional direct connectivity to targeted locations
the Merseyrail network. This includes improvements to        currently off the Merseyrail network.
depot facilities at Kirkdale and Birkenhead North,           As such, the study reports potentially feasible options for
upgrades to the power supply, and platform works             the extension of the Merseyrail network between:
which include safety and accessibility improvements
for the platform-train interface. This programme is          • Kirkby and Skelmersdale (and/or Wigan);
scheduled to be completed in the early 2020s and is an       • Ormskirk and Burscough (and/or Preston); and
investment of approximately £460 million in the
                                                             • Bidston and Shotton (and/or Wrexham).
Merseyrail network.
Delivering passenger capacity at Liverpool Central           Whilst these have not been identified as immediate
                                                             priorities to meet demand by 2024, they remain strategic
Previous studies identified station capacity in the city     choices for funders to consider and look at in more detail.
centre stations, in particular Liverpool Central, as “the    The existing network and new train specifications are

Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                                October 2020
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
05

expected to be able to support the assumed services
that would operate over the extended routes.
Beyond 2024, notwithstanding how NPR and High
Speed 2 (HS2) propositions develop, it is clear that
demand for rail into and across the Liverpool City
Region can be expected to grow, and in the longer term
the Merseyrail network could have a role to play in
providing capacity to the east of the city centre.
                                                           Merseyrail: A collaborative approach to the delivery of the new fleet of
As such, alongside the planned new train fleet, options    rolling stock for the Liverpool City Region
identified in the Liverpool City Region Long Term Rail
Strategy (2018) to provide additional long-term              • Further city centre station strategy development, in
capacity and connectivity include:                             support of HS2, NPR and the Combined Authority’s
• A new digital signalling system, currently planned to        spatial planning; and
  be delivered in in CP8 (2029 - 2034) providing             • In the future, further modules of the the Continuous
  improved capacity and performance;                           Modular Strategic Planning (CMSP) approach to
• A new connection from the Northern Line to the               long term planning, incorporating this study’s
  ‘City Lines’ via a re-opened Wapping tunnel; and             outputs as well as building on the above work to
                                                               integrate the evidence base and strategy for the
• Additional extensions to the Merseyrail network.             wider North West, to reflect stakeholder priorities.
These have not been assessed as part of this study as        Continuing to deliver through local partnership
they will be dependent upon the progression of the
                                                             This study process has been led by Network Rail but
NPR workstream, or the progress of other workstreams.
                                                             would not have been possible without the significant
Maintaining focus on passenger and public safety             collaborative input, local knowledge, expertise and
Passenger safety at stations is a key strategic priority     insight of representatives of Liverpool City Region
for the Merseyrail network. As such, the system safety       Combined Authority, Merseyrail, other passenger and
priorities identified in this study are:                     freight train operators, Department for Transport and
                                                             stakeholders from across the region. This is a
• Platform-train interface improvements delivered as         fundamental feature not just of the study itself but of
  part of the rollout of new rolling stock; and              the wider success story that is rail in the region.
• Passenger capacity and circulation improvements at         In the context of the devolution of funding and powers
  Liverpool Central.                                         local decision making will support continued economic
In addition, the study has noted the impact of change        growth through a collaborative, partnership approach,
on level crossing risk which appears relatively minor        which will continue to be crucial, both to the successful
due to limited changes to service frequencies, but           delivery of this study and to the further strategy
which will need to be reviewed at the project                development identified above. Network Rail looks
development stage as individual projects are taken           forward to working with its local partners to play its full
forward.                                                     part in those next steps.
Priorities for Investment
The priorities for investment identified in this study
provide a platform for these wider considerations, and
the longer- term strategic options identified above will
remain relevant in the context of HS2 and the
development of the NPR propostions. Indeed, it may
be the case that funders consider accelerating options
such as the Northern Line-City Lines connection in this
context.
As such, at the time of writing, future rail strategy
development for the Liverpool City Region includes:
• Updates to Liverpool City Region’s Long Term Rail
  Strategy;
• Progressing the development of a solution to
  passenger capacity at Liverpool Central;

October 2020                                                                           Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
06

Part B Where are we now?
An Introduction
Introduction to the Liverpool City Region network
• Sets out the future direction for the railway network in the
  Merseyrail area
• Developed through collaboration between the rail industry,
  funders and stakeholders
• Details the governance, structure and scope of the study
• Sets out the strategic priorities and goals that underpin this study
 The Merseyrail Network                                      Transport for Wales trains at Bidston use the
 The Merseyrail network Figure 1 (Page 10) is an entirely    Merseyrail platform. There are a number of stations
 third rail Direct Current (DC) electrified network spread   that offer the opportunity for interchange on the
 over the Liverpool City Region, north Cheshire and          Northern Line, with links to local services at Southport
 south west Lancashire. The network is split in two: the     and Kirkby towards Wigan, at Ormskirk towards
 Wirral Line and the Northern Line.                          Preston, and Hunts Cross for stations between
                                                             Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester. The route also
 There are four terminus stations on the Wirral Line:        calls at Liverpool South Parkway for Liverpool John
 New Brighton, West Kirkby, Chester and Ellesmere Port.      Lennon Airport and connections to Manchester, the
 All stations on this route are connected to Hamilton        east, Crewe and the south.
 Square in Birkenhead, and the central Liverpool
 stations of James Street, Moorfields, Liverpool Lime        More detailed information about the route is available
 Street and Liverpool Central, which are served by a         in the Merseyside Strategic Route Specification,
 one-way, clockwise loop line underneath Liverpool City      available on the Network Rail website.
 Centre. Liverpool Lime Street Low Level forms an            Study Purpose and Scope
 important link to the mainline Liverpool Lime Street        The Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study sets out
 station for interchange with services to a wide range of    a vision for the next 10 to 30 years of a much busier
 destinations. Chester is an interchange station for         railway that will contribute to the economy and the
 services to Wales, Manchester and London, and               forecast increase in population in the Liverpool City
 Bidston acts as a local interchange station with the        Region.
 Wrexham to Bidston line (known as the ‘Borderlands
 Line’).                                                     The study’s scope is focused on the third rail DC
                                                             network in the Liverpool City Region including its
 The Northern Line operates from Hunts Cross in the          current operations, capacity increases and potential
 south to Liverpool Central and Moorfields, with             extensions. The following extensions have been
 northerly branches serving Southport, Kirkby and            considered as meeting connectivity based conditional
 Ormskirk. The Northern Line crosses the Liverpool to        outputs:
 Manchester line (also known as the ‘Cheshire Lines
 Committee’) at Hunts Cross West Junction, on the            • Wrexham – Bidston (supports conditional outputs
 approach to Hunts Cross station. Under normal                 of providing direct connectivity between Wrexham
 operation, this is the only part of the network that          and Liverpool / provide connectivity and service
 directly interacts with the rest of the national network.     improvements between Neston and Liverpool /
 However, there are other places where platforms can           provide connectivity and service improvements
 be shared, for example, Southport platform 3 can be           between Shotton and Liverpool).
 used with the Wigan line and Chester platform 7 can         • Ormskirk – Preston (supports conditional outputs of
 be used by other services. Similarly, Ellesmere Port          providing direct connectivity between Burscough
 station has access from the Northern network, while           and Liverpool).
Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                               October 2020
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
07

• Kirkby – Wigan Wallgate (supports conditional             networks and are inclined to travel further to meet
  outputs of providing direct connectivity between          friends or to enjoy leisure time. The cost of car
  Skelmersdale and Liverpool).                              ownership and the impact of congestion mean
                                                            greater numbers of people rely on the rail network.
The Strategic Priorities that underpin the Liverpool
City Region Strategic Rail Study are:                     • The rail industry has also played a key role in making
                                                            train services an attractive way to travel through
• Safety and Performance – to help all our customers,
                                                            better services, market segmentation and
  staff and suppliers get home safe every day. This is
                                                            technology driven changes in ticketing, fares and
  central to the future interventions Network Rail is
                                                            information.
  proposing as choices for funders.
                                                          The railway industry has a responsibility to understand
• Economic growth – the railway is integral to the
                                                          these drivers of passenger growth and how they
  economy and thus a better railway is pivotal in
                                                          interact with each other. This understanding is
  delivering growth in the Liverpool City Region.
                                                          important to inform the future direction of the railway
• Social value – the railway is crucial in supporting     network.
  local economies by providing access to
                                                          Continuing this success story requires an evidence
  employment, education and other social
                                                          based and collaborative approach to strategic
  infrastructure as well as the retail and tourism
                                                          planning. This approach underpins the work of the
  sectors.
                                                          Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study and the
• Digital Railway – the rail industry’s Digital Railway   resulting choices for funders.
  programme will revolutionise train control,             Planning Approach and Governance
  ticketing, fares and information.
                                                          The Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study was
• Capacity – to understand how new higher capacity        developed as part of the Continuous Modular Strategic
  rolling stock can accommodate passenger demand          Planning (CMSP) approach to planning the future of
  and the impact at city centre stations.                 the network for the next 10 to 30 years, and provide
• Connectivity – the role rail can play in connecting     choices for funders.
  communities and making interchanges easier and          This Strategic Rail Study has been completed in
  more reliable, both between trains and between          collaboration with the rail industry, funders in the UK
  trains and other modes of transport. This is            Government, and with stakeholders in the City Region.
  particularly important for the Merseyrail network.
                                                          CMSP is Network Rail’s response to the Shaw Report
• Connectivity with HS2 / NPR is a key economic           recommendation noting the requirement to better
  driver in the future and this study takes cognisance    plan the railway based on customer, passenger and
  of this workstream.                                     freight needs.
• Punctuality and Reliability – Merseyrail continues to   In order to meet the various funder, service specifier
  achieve very high levels of performance, regularly in   and wider stakeholder needs, the CMSP process allows
  the top 3 of all UK rail franchises. The railway        the industry to become more dynamic and its products
  system will be much busier in future and the            more easily accessible. This is in essence creating
  industry needs to plan for this.                        route-based enhancement plans that better meet the
• Weather Resilience – future proofing the railway        industry’s needs by:
  system from the worst effects of climate change is      • focusing on the needs of passengers and freight
  crucial to future plans.                                  end-users;
Strategic Context
                                                          • engaging operators to represent the voice of those
• The railway in Britain has seen two decades of            customers;
  unprecedented passenger growth and this demand
                                                          • using the Continuous Modular Strategic Planning
  is forecast to increase.
                                                            process to inform refranchising, capacity allocation,
• In particular, Merseyrail network patronage has           development and delivery of enhancements and
  grown significantly, driven by a number of different      sale of access rights;
  factors. Socio-economic factors have a big role to
                                                          • employing a more effective, focused means of
  play and have changed the way passengers live,
                                                            consultation;
  work and commute. Advances in communication
  technology means people have wider social               • providing more granular, targeted market insight;

October 2020                                                                   Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
08

• developing a ‘service change’ pipeline for future          of these enhancements. This will enable the assets be
  configuration states; and                                  sustainable in the long term, whilst delivering the
                                                             capacity and performance required for our customers
• making best use of the network focusing on
                                                             in a manner that contributes to Network Rail’s safety
  incremental opportunities, synergies and service
                                                             principles.
  trade-offs.
                                                             The assessment of any future anticipated network
The Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study is one of a
                                                             enhancements can inform the development of
number of modules being developed as part of the CMSP
                                                             European Train Control System (ETCS) on the
approach across the country to inform the planning
                                                             Merseyrail network. The Merseyrail network offers a
process.
                                                             timely opportunity for the roll out of ETCS once
Previous study work identified issues and options that       signalling becomes due for renewal in the late 2020s,
might need addressing in Control Period 6 - the Liverpool    subject to funding becoming available.
City Region Strategic Rail Study provides an opportunity     Resilience
to revisit those ideas and develop a revised evidence
base to support the case for potential interventions and/    A safe, reliable and resilient network underpins
or enhancements in the future, e.g work to address           Network Rail’s plans for the future of the railway. The
crowding at Liverpool Central.                               resilience of the railway to extreme weather events
                                                             plays a considerable part in this and is reflected within
The CMSP approach has a key role in fulfilling Network       Network Rail asset policies and plans.
Rail’s Licence Condition which requires it to plan the
future of the network in a way that will deliver:            Network Rail has published a series of Weather
                                                             Resilience and Climate Change Adaptation (WRCCA)
• a safe railway for passengers and for the people who       plans aligned to the devolved routes of Network Rail.
  work on the railway;                                       The Liverpool City Region is reflected within the North
• a reliable timetable, including the uncertainties          West and Central (NW&C) WRCCA Plan which
  created by climate change; and                             identifies a number of appropriate actions required to
                                                             bolster the resilience of the network. These are based
• using technology that provides good value for money
                                                             on the need to strengthen Network Rail’s existing asset
  for users and funders, e.g. digital signalling.
                                                             base. This includes the use of railhead treatment trains
The following section sets out the working assumptions       which apply anti-icing fluid to the rail throughout the
that have been followed in developing the study that         winter season to reduce the risk of ice forming on the
underpins the work.                                          DC conductor rail during colder periods. Network Rail
Digital Railway                                              will continue to improve the weather resilience of the
                                                             assets throughout CP6 through seeking to improve the
Network Rail’s Digital Railway Strategy (April 2018)
                                                             ability to predict weather related events by enhanced
offers the chance to deliver huge benefits for passegers
                                                             risk assessments, remote monitoring and improved
and freight users, and is seen to be the most cost
                                                             weather forecasting combined with a better
effective way to deliver the future railway needs of
                                                             understanding of the condition of assets.
Britain.
                                                             Network Rail is developing a NW&C Route Extreme
Digital Railway could deliver the following benefits:
                                                             Weather Strategy for CP6. This will enable Network Rail
• Increased capacity to meet demand;                         to better inform plans for implementation of specific
• Better performance for passengers and freight              weather resilience works in CP7.
  customer journeys;                                         Safety and Performance
• Enable faster journey times;                               All of the choices for funders will deliver improved
                                                             safety and performance for the Merseyrail network.
• Less disruption from renewals, maintenance and             This includes a review of level crossings on the
  upgrades;                                                  Merseyrail network as well as the level crossings on
• Enhanced safety for passengers and workers; and            potential network extensions. Improved passenger
                                                             safety is also a key objective, with increased passenger
• Better asset sustainability such as lower whole life
                                                             flows predicted on the Merseyrail network, most
  cost.
                                                             notably at Liverpool Central.
For the purposes of this Study, Digital Railway has been
                                                             Extensions to the Merseyrail network have been
considered at a high level. However, in accordance with
                                                             considered within the study. It should be noted that
the Digital Railway Strategy, should any choices for
                                                             contact with third rail equipment can result in serious
funders identified within the Study be progressed, then
the use of up to date technologies should form the basis     injury and, in extreme circumstances, is fatal. Therefore
                                                             this study has considered alternative options for power

Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                                 October 2020
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
09

supply within the development of network extensions.        for re-opening the Wapping Tunnel, which could
                                                            offer the opportunity to merge mainline and
Although different types of risk are involved in the
                                                            Merseyrail services and also release capacity at
operation and maintenance of overhead line
                                                            Liverpool Lime Street station. The main output for
equipment or independent power equipment, these
                                                            this scheme is enhanced connectivity across the
risks are considered less severe than those associated
                                                            region, Network Rail will consider any conclusions in
with traction power supply via third rail. Therefore, any
                                                            future strategy work related to the Merseyrail
proposal to use alternatives to extensions of the third
                                                            network.
rail power supply would represent a reduction in risk.
                                                            Demand Analysis
Liverpool Lime Street
                                                            The Merseyrail network is a continuing success story,
Liverpool Lime Street station is a key hub and provides
                                                            with demand rising and consistent high
direct access to Liverpool City Centre.
                                                            performance. The network is reflective of the region
The station has been upgraded during Control Period 5       it serves; the recent transformation of Liverpool City
as part of the £340 million investment in Liverpool City    Centre has moved the focus of the main retail and
Region under the Great North Rail Project. This will        leisure area towards the River Mersey, but there has
provide extra capacity for new and longer services,         also been growth in passenger demand in suburban
driven by the Northern and TransPennine Express             areas and towns in other parts of the region.
franchises and as part of the wider North of England
                                                            Figure 1 shows the “current” demand vs. capacity
Programme. It accommodates the new Liverpool to
                                                            situation as an average of all high peak services into
Chester, and beyond, service over the rebuilt ‘Halton
                                                            central Liverpool on a given weekday in autumn
Curve’.
                                                            2018. On average, there is enough seated capacity
Further enhancements as a result of other changes to        on most services into central Liverpool with some
train services (including those emanating from the          standing (under one person per square metre) on
NPR workstream) may be required in the longer term,         Merseyrail services from Ormskirk and Kirkby.
but analysis completed as part of the Liverpool City        However, this tends to fall within the acceptable 20
Region Strategic Rail Study indicated expected levels       minute guideline for standing passengers, as
of connectivity and capacity at the end of Control          recommended by DfT guidance. As this is just an
Period 6 (March 2024) can be accommodated within            average across all services, some services will
the station.                                                certainly be busier and experience more crowding
Blackpool – Liverpool services would be forecast to         than others.
reach 100% of seating capacity by the end of CP6,
however this does include stops within the acceptable
20 minute guideline for standing passengers. All other
service groups on the ‘City Lines’, are forecast to
remain below the 80% of seating capacity threshold at
which we might expect perceptions of crowding and
passenger satisfaction to be impacted.
This conclusion is significant for the Liverpool City
Region Strategic Rail Study for two reasons:
• The options for further expansion at Liverpool Lime
  Street are limited – a potential approach could have
  been to withdraw some services from Liverpool Lime
  Street and instead merge them with the Merseyrail
  network (e.g. extend Hunts Cross services to
  Warrington and/or Kirkby services to Wigan). This
  reduces the number of options/scenarios required
  for further development in order to meet the
  conditional outputs for the study; and
• It means that consideration of the longer-term
  options for Liverpool Lime Street can follow this
  study, taking a fuller account of emerging HS2 and
  NPR propositions.
Merseytravel is in the process of developing a proposal         West Kirby station: At the heart of the community linking
                                                                North West Wirral to the Liverpool City Region.

October 2020                                                                        Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
Network Rail logo. Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study, October 2020. Continuous Modular Strategic Planning.
10
                                               Liverpool 2018 capacity
                                                                                                                                                                                 Croston
                           Suburban rail services arriving into central
     Figure 1: Morning peak hour (08:00 – 09:00 demand)
                           Liverpool during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859
                       Liverpool 2018 capacity
                                                                                                                                             Croston
                                         Suburban rail services arriving into central
                                         Liverpool during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859                                                                                                               Euxton
                                                                                                                                                                Rufford                           Balshaw Lane
                                                                                           Southport
                                                                                                                 Meols
                                                                                                                 Cop   Bescar                                     Euxton

                                                                         Southport                                     LaneRuffordNew                       Balshaw Lane

                                                                                          Birkdale
                                                                                        Meols                                     Lane
                                                                                        Cop    Bescar                                         Burscough
                                                                                                          New
                                                                                           Hillside
                                                                                               Lane
                                                                                                                                              Bridge
                                                                         Birkdale                         Lane

                                                                          Hillside        Ainsdale                Burscough
                                                                                                                                                             Hoscar
                                                                                                                  Bridge
                                                                                                                                     Burscough
                                                                         Ainsdale        Freshfield                         Hoscar                                 Parbold
                                                                                                        Burscough                    Junction
                                                                        Freshfield
                                                                                            Formby      Junction
                                                                                                                                Parbold                                      Appley Bridge
                                                                                                                                          Appley Bridge
                                                                                                                                                 Ormskirk
                                                                          Formby                                                                                                    Gathurst
                                                                                         Hightown                   Ormskirk                    Gathurst
                                                                       Hightown
                                                                                                                 Aughton Park
                                                                                                                                            Aughton Park                                               Wigan
                                                                                                                                                                  Wigan
                                                                        Hall Road        Hall Road                                                         North Western                        North Western
                                                                                                           Town Green                   Town Green
                                                          BlundellsandsBlundellsands
                                                                        & Crosby         & Crosby      Maghull                           Orrell
                                                                                                                                     Maghull                   Bryn            Orrell
                                                                         Waterloo
                                                                                     Waterloo
                                                                                                   Old Roan                     Upholland                                                               Bryn
                                                      Seaforth & Litherland       Orrell        Aintree                          Old  Roan                         Upholland
                                                                                                                     Rainford                       Garswood
                                                                                   Park                    Orrell           Aintree
                                     New Brighton        Bootle New Seaforth    & Litherland
                                                                      Strand Walton                           Kirkby                                   Rainford
                                                                                                             Park
                                                                                                     Fazakerley
                                                                                                                                                                                           Garswood
                                              New Brighton
                            Wallasey Grove Road                         Bootle New Strand Walton
                                                          Bootle Oriel Road                                                                   Kirkby
                                                                                                                                      St. Helens  Central
                             Wallasey Village                                             Rice Lane                                Fazakerley
                                  Wallasey Grove Road Bank Hall           Bootle Kirkdale
                                                                                   Oriel Road
                                                                                                                                     Thatto Heath                           St. Helens Central
                    Leasowe    Bidston
                                   Wallasey Village                 Sandhills                                       Rice    LaneEccleston Park
               Moreton                            Birkenhead North                     LIVERPOOL
                                                                                    Bank Hall                                                                       Newton Thatto Heath
                                                                                                             Kirkdale                                                 -le-
              Meols    Leasowe        Bidston Birkenhead Park Moorfields                                 Wavertree               Prescot                            Willows
                                                            Hamilton                 Sandhills Technology                                             St. Helens Eccleston Park
     Manor Road
                Moreton         Upton
                                             Conway
                                                 Park
                                                            Square
                                                               Birkenhead North
                                                                                          Edge Hill         LIVERPOOL
                                                                                                            Park         Roby               Rainhill Junction                                                Newton
    Hoylake
                                                                  Birkenhead     Park
                                                                                   Liverpool                     Broad Huyton Whiston   Wavertree   Lea                                                        -le-
              Meols               Birkenhead Central       James   Street
                                                                                             Moorfields Green                                      Green
                                                                                                                                                            Earlestown
                                                                                                                                                                    Prescot
                                                                                   Lime Street
                                                                             Hamilton                                                  Technology                                             St. Helens     Willows
   Manor                                  Green Lane            Liverpool
      West Road
           Kirby                                        Conway               Square
                                                                                            Mossley Hill           West
                                                                                                                     Edge Allerton
                                                                                                                              Hill          ParkHough RobySankey for              Rainhill Junction
                                        Upton                   Central                                                                                                                           Glazebrook
                                Heswell       Rock Ferry     Park                     St. Michaels      Cressington         Hunts Cross          Green           Penketh                     Birchwood
   Hoylake                                                           Brunswick                                                                                                             Lea
                                                                           James StreetAigburth Liverpool                                          Broad Huyton Whiston                  Padgate
                                                 Bebington                                                                                                                                           Earlestown
                                           Birkenhead Central                                                Lime    Street
                                                                                                               Liverpool             Halewood         Widnes
                                                                                                                                                   Green Warrington
                                                                                                                                                                                WarringtonGreen
                                                   Port Sunlight                                         South Parkway                                         Bank Quay        Central
                                                    Green LaneSpital             Liverpool                              Mossley Hill                 West Allerton
    West Kirby
                                Neston                                           Central                                                   Runcorn                                      Hough              Sankey for
                                       Heswell           Rock
                                                     BromboroughFerry
                                                                    Rake
                                                                                                                 St. Michaels Cressington                      Hunts Cross
                                                                                                                                                               Runcorn                  Green              Penketh
                                                             Bromborough              Brunswick                                                                East
                                                              Bebington
                                                                Eastham Rake             Little      Ellesmere       InceAigburth
                                                                                                                           &                    Frodsham
                                                                                                                                                Liverpool                 Halewood            Widnes Warrington           Wa
                                Hawarden Bridge                  Port Sunlight           Sutton         Port         Elton                                                                                                Ce
                                                                           Hooton                                                       South    Parkway                                                Bank Quay
                                                                               Spital                                            Helsby
                                                                                            Overpool Stanlow &
                                       Neston                                 Capenhurst                  Thornton                                                               Runcorn
                                                                       Bromborough Rake
                                                                                          Bache                                                             Acton Bridge                            Runcorn
  Prestatyn          Flint               Shotton                                     Bromborough                                       Delamere
                                                                                                                                                                                                    East
                                                                                                                     Mouldsworth                   Cuddington
                                                                                       Eastham Rake                   Little       Ellesmere        Ince &                       Frodsham
                                              Hawarden Bridge                                                         Sutton          Port          Elton
                                                                                                  Hooton                                                          Helsby
                                                                                                                         Overpool       Stanlow &
                                                                                                        Capenhurst                      Thornton
                                                           GREY
                                                           LIGHT GREEN                                              Bache                                                                        Acton Bridge
Prestatyn              Flint                   Shotton     GREEN                                                                   GREY                            No direct     service to central Liverpool durin
                                                                                                                                                                           Delamere
                                                           DARK GREEN                                                              LIGHT GREEN                     Up to 70% of seats occupied on average
              www.projectmapping.co.uk
                                                           AMBER                                                                                  Mouldsworth                             Cuddington
                                                           RED
                                                                                                                                   GREEN                           Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied
                                                           PURPLE                                            GREY                  DARK   GREEN
                                                                                                                                      No direct                    Between
                                                                                                                                                service to central Liverpool    85%
                                                                                                                                                                             during     andpeak
                                                                                                                                                                                    the high  100%      of seats
                                                                                                                                                                                                   hour/out of scopeoccupie
                                                           BLACK                                             LIGHT GREEN              Up to 70% of seats occupied on average
                                                                                                                                   AMBER                           Passengers       standing,    up   to 1  passenger   pe
                                                                                                             GREEN                    Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied on average
                                                                                                             DARK GREEN            REDBetween 85% and 100% ofPassengers
                                                                                                                                                                     seats occupiedstanding,
                                                                                                                                                                                     on average between 1 and 2 pas
                                                                                                             AMBER                 PURPLE
                                                                                                                                      Passengers standing, up to 1Passengers
                                                                                                                                                                     passenger per standing,
                                                                                                                                                                                    square metrebetween
                                                                                                                                                                                                  on average 2 and 3 pas
                                                                                                             RED                      Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average
                                                                        GREY                                 PURPLE
                                                                                                                                   BLACK
                                                                                                                                      Passengers standing, between Passengers       standing,
                                                                                                                                                                       2 and 3 passengers        overmetre
                                                                                                                                                                                           per square   3 passengers
                                                                                                                                                                                                             on average pe
                                                                        LIGHT GREEN
                                                                        GREEN
                                                                                                             BLACK

                                                                                                                     < >
                                                                                                                                           < >
                                                                                                                                      Passengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average
                                                                                                                                                                    Indicates the most heavily loaded directio
                                                                                                                                      Indicates the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services
                                                                        DARK GREEN
              www.projectmapping.co.uk
                                                                        AMBER                                                 Note:
                                                                                                             Note: Maghull North       Maghull
                                                                                                                                 not shown        North
                                                                                                                                           due to count   not
                                                                                                                                                        data   shown
                                                                                                                                                             obtained    duethetoopening
                                                                                                                                                                      before      countofdata   obtained
                                                                                                                                                                                          the station.                   befo
                                                                        RED                                       Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers
                                                                        PURPLE                                                          Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers
                                                                                                                       © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk

                                                                        BLACK                                                                   © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk
                                                                                                                         and reproduced with permission
                                                                                                                                               and reproduced with permission

  Hooton: Investment at stations to improve access for all through
  improved footbridges and lifts.

  Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                                                                                                            October 2020
11

Part C Where are we going?
The Demand for Rail
What does passenger demand growth mean for the
Merseyrail network?
Future Demand – 2024 and 2043                                as demonstrated in Figure 4. For many of the services,
The expected total growth in passenger demand                most notably services from West Kirby and Southport,
across the Merseyrail network is approximately 37% by        seated capacity may be exceeded however, with more
2043. This equates to 1.4% growth per annum until            standing capacity available on the new rolling stock,
the end of Control Period 6 in 2024 and a subsequent         there should be enough total capacity to
1.2% increase per annum between 2024 and 2043;               accommodate growing demand. It should be noted
this would mean over 15,000 passengers arriving in the       that the delivery of any new station(s) on the network
city centre stations on weekday mornings between             will add additional demand to services which has not
08:00 and 08:59 in 2043, compared to approximately           been taken into account for this study.
11,300 in 2018. The rail industry uses Department for        The New Brighton, West Kirby, Ellesmere Port and
Transport (DfT) forecasting guidance, coupled with a         Kirkby services consist of 4-car trains in the baseline
regional overlay to arrive at the 37% figure. Without        ITSS. When total capacity is exceeded by demand on
the regional overlay, DfT’s forecast for appraisal is 31%    these services, it may be possible to lengthen them to
to 2043. However, DfT and Network Rail have agreed           8-car services. Further work would have to be done to
that additional, well evidenced scenarios can form part      understand whether this would be the most
of the information presented to decision makers in           appropriate use of rolling stock.
project business cases.
                                                             The deployment of rolling stock in the future is
Growth in passenger demand is good – a positive news         dependent on a host of issues, however the rolling
story within a wider regional renaissance – but this         stock programme does consider the opportunity for
growth will soon meet, and in some cases, exceed             the procurement of further carriages. That said, the
available capacity on trains and at stations. This is        analysis described only covers demand into Liverpool
particularly the case for the underground (central)          city centre in the morning high peak. Shorter distance
Liverpool stations, and the services arriving into them      flows, outside the city centre, and weekend peak
in the peak, which will face severe difficulties with        times will also need to be considered as part of the
crowding without intervention in the morning peak.           new rolling stock strategy. The new fleet offers an
Figures 2 & 3 (overleaf) show the forecast detail of         opportunity for optimised deployment at the
passenger demand growth in 2024 and 2043                     appropriate times.
respectively, in a weekday morning ‘high peak’ hour
(08:00 – 08:59). The service level and rolling stock types
are based on the agreed baseline Indicative Train
Service Specification (ITSS) shown in Figure 4 (page
15).
By 2024 demand will exceed seated capacity on the
majority of Merseyrail services. However, the new
rolling stock will provide sufficient capacity, according
to DfT guidelines, on all services in the medium term,
into the late 2030s. Note that there may be localised
factors which could mean individual services on some
routes are more heavily loaded than others over
common sections of route.
The potential for passenger crowding becomes more
apparent by 2043, with no further committed
schemes, as would be expected over that timescale            The Liverpool City Region has consistently invested in expanding
through continued background growth in patronage,            park and ride provision, including here at Birkenhead North.
October 2020                                                                          Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
12

  With the investment in new rolling stock and                      The arrival of this fleet (beginning in 2020 and
  infrastructure enhancements, opportunities may                    anticipated to be completed in 2021), with enhanced
  exist going forwards to realise journey time                      passenger capacity offers a strategic solution to meet
  improvements across the Merseyraill network.                      growing demand on the Merseyrail network.
  Analysis is expected as part of the new fleet                     Impact on the operational railway
  introduction, but there is also an expectation from
  the Combined Authority that the new fleet will                    The introduction of the new rolling stock brings with it
  encourage more passengers to use the rail network.                a requirement to deliver an infrastructure upgrade,
                                                                    most notably a requirement to upgrade the power
  As discussed, increasing demand will mean more                    supply. The scope for the introduction of the new
  passengers standing for longer periods of time.                   rolling stock includes four new additional feeder points
  Where this exceeds the 20 minute guideline a range                to boost the power capacity for the rolling stock.
  of options could be explored to address seating
  capacity issues, such as improved journey times, the              Platform-train interface improvements are an integral
  introduction of semi-fast services on some routes                 component of the introduction of the new fleet. The
  and/or increased frequency of services.                           new trains feature a sliding step to reduce the stepping
                                                                    distance between carriage and platform, and other
  Overall the new fleet will supply enough total                    train-borne safety features to further mitigate risk.
  capacity to meet demand for morning commuters                     Infrastructure alterations were required at the majority
  into Liverpool city centre for the most part, at least            of Merseyrail stations to reduce the stepping distance
  until 2043, given that background demand grows at                 for passengers and to standardise platform heights, as
  the expected pace. Network extensions will need to                well as works at a number of stations to support
  be further analysed in terms of demand vs. capacity,              operation of longer trains. The result will be a smooth
  as new demand to the network has the potential to                 transition for passengers with wheelchairs, pushchairs
  reduce available seating for passengers at existing               and heavy luggage from the platform to the train (and
  stations close to the city centre.                                vice versa), and will remove the need for station staff to
  New rolling stock                                                 provide ramp access to trains.
  Liverpool City Region Combined Authority is                       Conditional Outputs
  procuring new rolling stock for the Merseyrail                    Demand and capacity issues discussed earlier in this
  network. The new trains will comprise 4-car units                 chapter indicate that higher capacity rolling stock will
  and each unit will have approximately 60% more                    be beneficial in meeting demand for the Merseyrail
  total capacity (seated + standing) than the current               network. Another potential driver of changes to
  Class 507/508s, however seated capacity alone will                services are ’Conditional Outputs’, which have been
  remain at similar levels to today.                                used to determine the frequency, journey time and
                                                                    connectivity shown in the 2043 Indicative Train Service
                                                                    Specification to Figure 4 (Page 17).
                                                                    Table 1 below describes the conditional outputs for the
                                                                    30 year planning horizon. These conditional outputs
                                                                    have been used to develop the choices for funders up
                                                                    to 2043.
                                                                    2043 Indicative Train Service Specification
                                                                    The Conditional Outputs described above have been
                                                                    translated into a 2019 baseline, and an Indicative Train
                                                                    Service Specification (ITSS) for 2043. These ITSS’s are
                                                                    detailed in Figure 4 and are representative of an
                                                                    indicative peak hour. Each line represents one
                                                                    passenger train per hour (tph). Work is currently
                                                                    underway looking at the Wrexham – Bidston line which
                                                                    may lead to a review of the service frequency on the
                                                                    Wirral Lines in due course. This work will be reviewed as
                                                                    it emerges.
                                                                    The ITSS sets out the optimum way of meeting the
                                                                    conditional outputs, focusing on making best use of
  Conceptual images of the new rolling stock fleet. The new         the network before considering options for new
  rolling stock provides a strategic solution to meet the growing
  demand on the Merseyrail network
                                                                    infrastructure.

Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                                        October 2020
13
                                    Liverpool
            Figure 2 Morning Peak Hour Demand on2024    capacity
                                                  Northern  Wirral and City lines in 2024 (Using rail industry growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Croston

            scenarios).             Suburban rail services arriving into central
                                                         Liverpool
                                             Liverpool 2024 capacity during the high peak hour
                                                                                          Croston 0800 to 0859

                                             Suburban rail services arriving into central
                                             Liverpool during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859                                                                                                                                        Euxton
                                                                                                                                                                                             Rufford                           Balshaw Lane
                                                                                                                 Southport                                          Euxton

                                                                      Southport
                                                                                                                              Rufford    Meols                Balshaw Lane
                                                                                     Meols                                               Cop   Bescar
                                                                                     Cop   Bescar
                                                                                           Lane         New                                    Lane                   New
                                                                     Birkdale                           Lane
                                                                                                                Birkdale                                              Lane
                                                                                                                Burscough
                                                                      Hillside                                   Bridge                                                       Burscough
                                                                     Ainsdale                                     Hillside
                                                                                                                      Hoscar                                                  Bridge
                                                                                                       Burscough
                                                                    Freshfield                                            Parbold
                                                                                                       JunctionAinsdale                                                                   Hoscar
                                                                      Formby                                                              Appley Bridge
                                                                                                                  Ormskirk                                        Burscough
                                                                    Hightown                                   Freshfield                         Gathurst                                        Parbold
                                                                                                               Aughton Park                                       Junction
                                                                                                                                                                    Wigan
                                                                    Hall Road                                 Formby                                         North Western                                  Appley Bridge
                                                                                                         Town Green
                                                       Blundellsands & Crosby                          Maghull                           Orrell                                 Ormskirk                           Gathurst
                                                                     Waterloo                                  Hightown                                        Bryn
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MANCHES
                                                                                                   Old Roan                    Upholland                                     Aughton Park                                            Wigan
                                                        Seaforth & Litherland       Orrell      Aintree
                                                                                     Park                      Hall Road
                                                                                                                    Rainford                       Garswood                                                                   North Western
                                        New Brighton       Bootle New Strand      Walton
                                                                                                               Kirkby                                                  Town Green
                                                                                               Fazakerley
                                 Wallasey Grove Road        Bootle Oriel Road         Blundellsands   & Crosby                      St. Helens Central
                                                                                                                                                                  Maghull
                                                                                           Rice Lane
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Orrell
                                 Wallasey Village                   Bank Hall
                                                                                                                Waterloo           Thatto Heath                                                                                  Bryn
                     Leasowe       Bidston
                                                                                     Kirkdale                                                                Old Roan                            Upholland
                                                                    Sandhills                                                  Eccleston Park
              Moreton                               Birkenhead North                 L Seaforth
                                                                                       I V E R& P Litherland
                                                                                                   OOL                              Orrell                Aintree Newton              Rainford
             Meols                                    Birkenhead Park                                  Wavertree       PrescotPark
                                                                                                                                                                       -le-                                          Garswood
                                                                        Moorfields                                                                                    WillowsKirkby
   Manor Road                                   Conway
                                                              New    Brighton
                                                              Hamilton
                                                                                               Bootle Technology
                                                                                                       New    Strand WaltonRainhill                  St. Helens
                                                              Square                         Edge Hill   Park     Roby                                Junction
                                    Upton          Park                                                                                                         Fazakerley                            St. Helens Central
   Hoylake                                          Wallasey Grove Road
                                                           James Street              Liverpool Bootle      OrielBroad
                                                                                                                  RoadHuyton            Whiston
                                                                                                                                                   Lea
                                                                                                                                                             Earlestown
                                     Birkenhead Central                              Lime Street                 Green                            Green
                                            Green Wallasey
                                                  Lane        Village
                                                               Liverpool                                                            Rice Lane
    West Kirby
                                                               Central
                                                                                            Mossley Hill       BankWest
                                                                                                                    HallAllerton
                                                                                                                                    Hough         Sankey for
                                                                                                                                                                                        Thatto Heath
                                                                                                                                                                                Glazebrook
                                                Rock Ferry                                                                   Kirkdale
                                  Leasowe
                                   Heswell           Bidston Brunswick              St. Michaels Cressington       Hunts Cross      Green         Penketh                  Birchwood
                                                                                                                                                                       Padgate
                                                                                                       Sandhills                                                                 Eccleston Park
                                                                                                                                        LIVERPOOL
                                                   Bebington
                                                                                          Aigburth                        Halewood       Widnes Warrington     Warrington
                          Moreton                      Port Sunlight           Birkenhead North
                                                                                                        Liverpool
                                                                                                                                                Bank Quay      Central                                               Newton
                                                                                                   South Parkway
                                                                 Spital
                                                                                  Birkenhead Park                                                     Wavertree                                                        -le-
                         Meols      Neston                                                                    Moorfields       Runcorn                                            Prescot
                                                        Bromborough Rake
                                                                                             Hamilton                                                Technology                                        St. Helens    Willows
                                                                                                                                                Runcorn
      Manor Road                                                BromboroughConway            Square                                 Edge HillEast                                            Rainhill Junction
                                                                                                                                                          Park           Roby
                                                         Upton Eastham RakePark Little Ellesmere Ince &                           Frodsham
      Hoylake                       Hawarden Bridge                                   Sutton      Port       Elton
                                                                                                                             Liverpool                                                               Lea
                                                                                            James Street                                                        Broad Huyton Whiston                         Earlestown
                                                            Birkenhead Hooton
                                                                            Central Overpool        Stanlow &
                                                                                                                      Helsby
                                                                                                                             Lime Street                        Green                              Green
                                                                             Capenhurst
                                                                        Green Lane                  Thornton
                                                                                                   Liverpool                           Mossley Hill               West Allerton
        West Kirby                                                                  Bache
                                                                                                   Central                   Delamere
                                                                                                                                              Acton Bridge                                       Hough            Sankey for
Prestatyn        Flint               Shotton
                                                        Heswell             Rock Ferry
                                                                                                            Mouldsworth          St. Michaels
                                                                                                                                        Cuddington
                                                                                                                                                    Cressington             Hunts Cross          Green            Penketh
                                                                                                        Brunswick
                                                                               Bebington
                                                                                                                                         Aigburth            Liverpool                  Halewood       Widnes Warrington                      Warrin
                                                                                 Port Sunlight                                                        South Parkway                                             Bank Quay                     Centra
                                                                                                Spital
                                                        Neston                                                                                                                              Runcorn
                                                                                  Bromborough Rake
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Runcorn
                                                                                              Bromborough                                                                                                       East
                                                                                                   Eastham Rake                    Little        Ellesmere          Ince   &                    Frodsham
                                                        Hawarden Bridge                                                            Sutton           Port            Elton
                                                                                                                  Hooton                                                          Helsby
                                                                                                                                       Overpool Stanlow &
                                                                                                                    Capenhurst                          Thornton
                                                                                                                                             Bache                                                                             Acton Bridge
 Prestatyn                  Flint                        Shotton                                                                                                                                       Delamere
                                                                                                                                                                                 Mouldsworth                          Cuddington
       GREY                                    No direct service to central Liverpool during the high peak hour/out of scope
       LIGHT GREEN                             Up to 70% of seats occupied on average
       GREEN                                   Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied on average
       DARK GREEN                              Between 85% and 100% of seats occupied on average
       AMBER                                   Passengers standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average
       RED                                     Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average
       PURPLE                                  Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average
       BLACK                                   Passengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average

                 < >                           Indicates the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services

        Note: Maghull North not shown due to count data obtained before the opening of the station.

             Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers
                  © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk
                    and reproduced with permission

            October 2020                                                                                                                                                              Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study
14

                                     Liverpool
              Figure 3: Morning Peak Hour  Demand2043     capacity
                                                     on Northern Wirral and City lines in 2043 (Using railCroston
                                                                                                           industry growth
              scenarios).            Suburban rail services arriving into central
                              Liverpool 2043 capacity
                                     Liverpool  during the high peak hour 0800
                                                                            Croston
                                                                                    to 0859
                                              Suburban rail services arriving into central
                                              Liverpool during the high peak hour 0800 to 0859
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Euxton
                                                                                                                                                                       Euxton      Rufford                          Balshaw Lane
                                                                                                     Southport                 Rufford                           Balshaw Lane
                                                                         Southport
                                                                                        Meols
                                                                                                                           Meols
                                                                                        Cop   Bescar                       Cop   Bescar
                                                                                              Lane      New
                                                                                                                                 Lane                   New
                                                                                                        Lane
                                                                        Birkdale
                                                                                                    Birkdale Burscough                                  Lane
                                                                         Hillside                               Bridge                                            Burscough
                                                                        Ainsdale                     Hillside               Hoscar                                Bridge
                                                                                                      Burscough
                                                                       Freshfield                                                   Parbold
                                                                                                    Ainsdale
                                                                                                      Junction
                                                                                                                                              Appley Bridge                     Hoscar
                                                                          Formby
                                                                                                                  Ormskirk                            Burscough
                                                                       Hightown                    Freshfield                                        Gathurst                        Parbold
                                                                                                               Aughton Park                           Junction        Wigan
                                                                       Hall Road                     Formby                                                    North Western
                                                                                                                                                                                               Appley Bridge
                                                                                                        Town Green
                                                         Blundellsands & Crosby                        Maghull                            Orrell
                                                                                                                                                                    Ormskirk                            Gathurst
                                                                                                   Hightown
                                                                        Waterloo                      Old Roan                     Upholland
                                                                                                                                                                  Bryn
                                                                                                                                                                Aughton Park                                              Wigan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      M
                                                                                       Orrell      Aintree
                                                          Seaforth & Litherland                    Hall Road            Rainford                      Garswood                                                     North Western
                                         New Brighton
                                                                                        Park
                                                                                                               Kirkby                                         Town Green
                                                               Bootle New Strand     Walton
                                                                             Blundellsands & Crosby
                                                                                             Fazakerley
                                                                                                                                                     Maghull
                                                                                                                                        St. Helens Central
                                  Wallasey Grove Road           Bootle Oriel Road                                                                                                            Orrell
                                  Wallasey Village                     Bank Hall
                                                                                              Rice Lane
                                                                                                    Waterloo                           Thatto Heath
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Bryn
                                                                                        Kirkdale                                                Old     Roan                       Upholland
                        Leasowe     Bidston
                                                             Sandhills
                                                                     Seaforth & Litherland                                OrrellEcclestonAintree
                                                                                                                                         Park
                 Moreton                    Birkenhead North                           LIVERPOOL                                                             Rainford
                                                                                                                                                          Newton
                                                                                                                                                                                                Garswood
                                                                                                                 Park                                       -le-
                Meols                         Birkenhead Park
                                             New Brighton Moorfields     Bootle     New
                                                                                                 Wavertree
                                                                                            Strand                      Prescot                    Kirkby
                                                      Hamilton                                  TechnologyWalton                            St. Helens    Willows
    Manor Road                         Conway
                           UptonWallasey
                                                      Square                      Edge Hill         Park        Roby                   Fazakerley
                                                                                                                                 Rainhill    Junction
                                                                                                                                                                               St. Helens Central
                                           ParkGrove Road                  Bootle Oriel Road
    Hoylake                                                                 Liverpool                                                     Lea
                                                     James Street                                        Broad     Huyton     Whiston             Earlestown
                             Birkenhead Central
                                  Wallasey Village                          Lime Street                                   Rice  Lane    Green
                                    Green Lane            Liverpool
                                                                                        Bank Hall Green                                                                       Thatto Heath
     West Kirby                                                                     Mossley Hill          West Kirkdale
                                                                                                                 Allerton
                     Leasowe         Bidston
                                        Rock Ferry
                                                          Central                                                                     Hough            Sankey for                    Glazebrook
                           Heswell                                                       Sandhills
                                                                                               Cressington         Hunts Cross        Green            Penketh         Eccleston     Park
                                                                                                                                                                                Birchwood
                                                                                                                          LIVERPOOL
                                                                               St. Michaels
                                                               Brunswick                                                                                                   Padgate
                Moreton                    Bebington
                                                                Birkenhead North      Aigburth                                                                     Warrington
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Newton
                                                                                                      Liverpool             Halewood        Widnes Warrington
                                             Port Sunlight         Birkenhead Park               South Parkway                               Wavertree
                                                                                                                                                     Bank Quay     Central                                        -le-
               Meols                                                                            Moorfields                                                              Prescot
                                                        Spital
                                                                              Hamilton                                                      Technology                                            St. Helens    Willows
                           Neston                                                                                               Runcorn
   Manor Road                                            Conway
                                               Bromborough   Rake
                                                                              Square                                      Edge Hill                                                   Rainhill Junction
                                                                                                                                                 ParkRuncorn     Roby
                                       Upton                   Park
                                                       Bromborough                                                                                   East
   Hoylake                                                                                                  Ince Liverpool                                                                      Lea
                                                          Eastham Rake     James Little     Ellesmere
                                                                                        StreetPort
                                                                                                                  &                 Frodsham            Broad Huyton Whiston                            Earlestown
                                         Birkenhead Central
                           Hawarden Bridge                                       Sutton                     Elton
                                                                                                                 Lime Street                            Green                                 Green
                                                                    Hooton                                              Helsby
                                                    Green Lane                      Liverpool
                                                                                    Overpool                                 Mossley Hill                 West Allerton
    West Kirby                                                                                    Stanlow &
                                                                       Capenhurst Central Thornton                                                                                          Hough            Sankey for
                                                Heswell              Rock Ferry            Bache
                                                                                                                               St. Michaels   Cressington
                                                                                                                                                   Acton Bridge                 Hunts Cross            Green            Penketh
  Prestatyn        Flint              Shotton                                                        Brunswick                       Delamere
                                                                          Bebington
                                                                                                                   Mouldsworth            AigburthCuddington
                                                                                                                                                          Liverpool                      Halewood          Widnes Warrington       Warrin
                                                                             Port Sunlight                                                               South Parkway                                            Bank Quay        Centra
                                                                                       Spital
                                                Neston                                                                                                                                         Runcorn
                                                                              Bromborough Rake
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Runcorn
                                                                                           Bromborough                                                                                                                East
                                                                                                Eastham Rake                        Little          Ellesmere             Ince &                      Frodsham
                                                 Hawarden Bridge                                                                    Sutton             Port               Elton
                                                                                                           Hooton                                                                   Helsby
                                                                                                                                       Overpool               Stanlow &
                                                                                                                 Capenhurst                                   Thornton
                                                                                                                               Bache                                                                                Acton Bridge
Prestatyn               Flint                        Shotton                                                                                                                                 Delamere
                                                                                                                                                                         Mouldsworth                       Cuddington
       GREY                                No direct service to central Liverpool during the high peak hour/out of scope
       LIGHT GREEN                         Up to 70% of seats occupied on average
       GREEN                               Between 70% and 85% of seats occupied on average
       DARK GREEN                          Between 85% and 100% of seats occupied on average
       AMBER                               Passengers standing, up to 1 passenger per square metre on average
       RED                                 Passengers standing, between 1 and 2 passengers per square metre on average
       PURPLE                              Passengers standing, between 2 and 3 passengers per square metre on average
       BLACK                               Passengers standing, over 3 passengers per square metre on average

                 < >                       Indicates the most heavily loaded direction of travel shown for orbital services

        Note: Maghull North not shown due to count data obtained before the opening of the station.

              Based upon a map designed by Andrew Smithers
                   © 2017 www.projectmapping.co.uk
                     and reproduced with permission

       Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                                                                                                                              October 2020
15

                                                                             In summary, the ITSS can be accommodated on the
                                                                             core Merseyrail network, with enhancements required
                                                                             where services are proposed to extend beyond the
                                                                             existing network limits.

Table 1: Conditional Outputs for the 30 year planning horizon
Conditional Outputs used for the study
Service Group       Conditional Output(s)                                          Analysis for service requirement (for 2043 ITSS)

Hunts Cross         • Increase capacity to meet demand through lengthening         • New rolling stock satisfies increased demand.
                      or increased frequency.
Chester and         • Increase capacity to meet demand through lengthening         • New rolling stock satisfies increased demand (Chester).
Ellesmere Port        or increased frequency.                                      • New rolling stock and lengthened services satisfies increased
                    • Increase Chester – Liverpool average journey speed to          demand (Ellesmere Port).
                      60mph.
West Kirby, New     • Increase capacity to meet demand through lengthening         • New rolling stock satisfies increased demand (West Kirby and
Brighton and          or increased frequency.                                        New Brighton).
Wrexham             • Provide direct connectivity between Wrexham and              • Wrexham – Bidston services should be extended to support
                      Liverpool.                                                     direct connectivity between Wrexham and Liverpool. .
                    • Provide connectivity and service improvements between        • Service frequency on ‘Borderlands Line’ should increase to two
                      Neston and Liverpool (target Generalised Journey Time          trains per hour (each direction).*
                      (GJT) < 60 minutes).
                    • Provide connectivity and service improvements between
                      Shotton and Liverpool (target GJT < 60 minutes).
Southport,          • Increase capacity to meet demand through lengthening         • New rolling stock satisfies increased demand (Southport,
Ormskirk and          or increased frequency.                                        Ormskirk and Kirkby).
Kirkby              • Provide direct connectivity between Burscough and            • Ormskirk services should be extended to Burscough Junction, and
                      Liverpool to reduce GJT
16

Part D How do we get there?
A strategy for the Liverpool City Region
The future of the Merseyrail Network
• The new higher capacity rolling stock will play a fundamental
  role in delivering the strategic priorities for the network
• Infrastructure enhancements will be required to support the
  rolling stock
• City centre stations will require further assessment to ensure all
  parts of the network play their full part in facilitating economic
  growth
 Context                                                      A number of options are in development, including
 The highest priority intervention for the Merseyrail         deliverablility in the context of city centre connectivity,
 network is to roll out the fleet of new higher capacity      impacts and opportunities at other stations and
 rolling stock.                                               strategic spatial planning for the city centre.

 The new fleet will be supported by enhanced stations,        Analysis has identified the following issues:
 power supply upgrades and a continuing pursuit of            • Platform crowding – passenger demand, significantly
 safety risk reduction which are required to ensure the         in the weekday PM peak and on Saturday afternoons,
 continued success of the Merseyrail network.                   can generate levels of crowding on platforms in
 In addition, extensions to the Merseyrail network could        excess of that deemed acceptable. This is
 provide improved connectivity across the region.               exacerbated by the substantial number of
 Stakeholders continue to develop thinking, including,          passengers on platforms who do not board the first
 for example, the Liverpool John Lennon Airport link,           train, instead waiting for a direct service to their
 Bootle Branch Line, and from Ellesmere Port to Helsby.         destination. During periods of disruption, platform
 The ITSS for 2043 proposes a number of service                 loads can increase to the point which impedes further
 changes that require enhanced infrastructure to                passengers entry to the platforms in a safe manner;
 support them, should funders choose to pursue                  and
 connectivity aspirations.                                    • Platform clearance times – a combination of high
 Increased train capacity                                       levels of passenger demand, and inadequate lifts and
                                                                escalators from the underground platforms, can
 The new higher capacity rolling stock will cater for the       result in lengthy times required to clear platforms
 forecast demand across the Merseyrail network to               after the arrival of a train. This is most noticeable at
 2043 and offers a strategic solution to meet growing           Liverpool Central during the Weekday AM peak,
 passenger demand on the Merseyrail network.                    where it can take upwards of two minutes to clear the
 Impact on Liverpool Central                                    Northern Line platform of arriving passengers. These
 This study has identified that increased demand will           impact detrimentally on passengers’ journey times
 place additional pressure on Liverpool Central,                through the station and their overall journey
 particularly passenger throughput capability on the            experience, as well as affecting platform dwell times
 Northern Line platform.                                        and network performance.

 Clearly an intervention will be required to alleviate this   Work is underway to provide detailed quantification of
 issue and work is currently underway by the railway          these issues, including estimating the timescales by
 industry to understand what might be required to             which appropriate mitigation strategies must be
 meet this need.                                              implemented.

Liverpool City Region Strategic Rail Study                                                                    October 2020
You can also read