OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - June 2019 DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Dominique von Orelli - Global Head, Ocean Freight

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OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - June 2019 DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Dominique von Orelli - Global Head, Ocean Freight
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DHL Global Forwarding, Freight

OCEAN FREIGHT
MARKET UPDATE
June 2019
Publication Date 29th May 2019
Dominique von Orelli – Global Head, Ocean Freight

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OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - June 2019 DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Dominique von Orelli - Global Head, Ocean Freight
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Contents

    TOPICS OF THE MONTH
    US – China trade war / IMO 2020

    HIGH LEVEL DEVELOPMENT

    MARKET OUTLOOK
    Freight Rates and Volume Development

    ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & DEMAND DEVELOPMENT

    CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

    CARRIERS

    REGULATIONS

?   DID YOU KNOW?
    2019 global container throughput

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OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - June 2019 DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Dominique von Orelli - Global Head, Ocean Freight
Topic of the Month 1/2
     US-China Trade War

 Transpacific volumes at risk from trade war fallout                                                             Top 14 Transpacific Carriers Eastbound Liftings :
                                                                                                                 May 2018 – Apr 2019
                                                                                                                                                Liftings in TEU Millions
 •    Container cargo ex China accounts for 68% of all transpacific volumes, based on May 2018 –
      Apr 2019 carrier’s volumes.
 •    The 14 main transpacific carriers’ shares of ex-China cargo is between 52% and 90% of their
      respective total headhaul liftings. Any reduction in Chinese volumes will thus have a
      significant impact on the shipping lines.
 •    Total exports from China have fallen by 6.3% in the first four months of 2019 compared to the
      same period in 2018.
 •    A further escalation of the US-China trade war, including the potential imposition of new
      tariffs on the remaining $300 Bn of Chinese exports to the US later this year, could result a
      reduction in overall transpacific eastbound volumes by at least -8%. Exports from other Far
      East origins meanwhile, will not grow sufficiently to offset the expected reduction in cargoes
      from China.
 •    OCEAN Alliance carriers have announced 3 void transpacific sailings in June, with more
      carriers expected to follow suit as spot rates on the US West Coast route have already fallen
      by 15% in the first two weeks of May. Long Term rates remain stable.
 •    CN exports could experience a growth acceleration in the coming months due to shipment rush
      ahead of the next phase of threatened tariffs.

Source: Alphaliner based on analysis derived from PIERS data

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OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE - June 2019 DHL Global Forwarding, Freight Dominique von Orelli - Global Head, Ocean Freight
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 Topic of the Month 2/2
 Carriers continue to prepare for the implementation of the IMO 2020 sulphur fuel cap

How the containership fleet is expected to comply with the IMO 2020 sulphur fuel rules as of 1st January 2020

                                                                          The number of scrubbers installed on and ordered for containerships has passed 840 units,
                                                                          according to the latest estimations. Ships fitted or to be fitted with scrubbers now
                                                                          account for as much as 16% of the current fleet by vessel count, and for 36% in terms of
                                                                          TEU capacity.
                                                                          In contrast, the take-up of LNG as fuel has remained slow, with only 38 ships in service or
                                                                          on order so far. Natural gas-powered tonnage will account for just 1% of the total fleet by
                                                                          units and 2% by TEU capacity.
                                                                          All ships that are neither fitted with scrubbers nor LNG-powered will have to switch to
                                                                          0.5% sulphur fuel from 1 January 2020. Carriers are negotiating agreements with
                                                                          suppliers for bunkering and ensuring the supply of low sulphur oil (LSFO) before the new
                                                                          global sulphur cap comes into effect.
                                                                          Regardless whether a ship is retrofitted with a scrubber or has to use LSFO, cost of
                                                                          compliance with the new regulation will be significant and will impact freight rates.

 Source: Alphaliner, DHL, etc

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   High Level Market Development – Supply and Demand

 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)                                                                  DHL TRADE BAROMETER6)                                                        Mar19 index                   SUPPLY/DEMAND GROWTH
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    SUPPLY/DEMAND  GROWTH (ANNUALIZED),
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           (ANNUALIZED),ININ
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           %%2) 2)

                                                                                                                                                                                       predicts Mar-
                                                                                                              75
                                                                                       CAGR                                                                                            May19 trade              7%
                     2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F                                                            70                                                                       development
                                                                                     (2020-23)                                                                                                                  6%                                                                          Demand
                                                                                                              65                                                                                                                                                                            Growth
EURO                    1.4%        1.3%        1.4%        1.6%        1.7%            1.6%                  60                                                                                                5%                                                                            %
MEA                     2.5%        3.1%        3.2%        3.4%        3.4%            3.3%                  55                                                                                                4%                     Supply
                                                                                                              50                                                                                                3%                    Growth %
AMER                    2.3%        2.0%        1.8%        1.7%        1.6%            1.7%                                                                                                Ocean
                                                                                                              45
                                                                                                                                                                                                                2%
ASPA                    4.7%        4.6%        4.6%        4.6%        4.6%            4.6%                  40                                                                            Global
                                                                                                                                                                                                                1%
                                                                                                              35
                                                                                                              30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                0%
DGF World               2.9%        2.8%        2.8%        2.8%       2.8%             2.8%                                                                                                                                   2017         2018         2019F          2020F          2021F          2022F
                                                                                                                   Q1       Q2       Q3        Q4       Q1        Q2         Q3      Q4        Q1
                                                                                                                   ’17                                  ’18                                    ’19

 WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI)3)                                                                           SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX (SCFI)4)                                                               BUNKER PRICE INDEX5)
   3,000                                                                                                  1,200                                                                                                      1,000
                                                                                                          1,100
   2,500                                                                                                                                                                                                                800
                                                                                                          1,000
   2,000
                                                                                                            900                                                                                                         600
   1,500                                                                                                    800
                                                                                                            700                                                                                                         400
   1,000                                                                               Actual                                                                                                Actual
                                                                                                            600                                                                                                                                                                                     BIX 380
     500                                                                               Forecast                                                                                              Forecast                   200
                                                                                                            500                                                                                                                                                                                     BIX MGO
         0                                                                                                  400                                                                                                            0
             Q1    Q2     Q3      Q4     Q1      Q2     Q3      Q4     Q1       Q2     Q3                          Q1     Q2      Q3      Q4    Q1      Q2      Q3      Q4     Q1      Q2     Q3                               Q1     Q2    Q3 Q4        Q1      Q2    Q3     Q4      Q1     Q2     Q3
             ’17                         ’18                           ’19                                         ’17                          ’18                            ’19                                             17                        18                           ’19

1) real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q1 2019 . All rights reserved. 2) Demand growth = Port-to-Port Container Traffic growth. Supply growth = Fleet Growth. Source: Drewry Maritime Research. 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft container, including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia
routes, 5.5% predicted freight rate increase. 4) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft container & USD/40ft ctnr for US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai. 5) Bunker Index, in USD/metric ton, Bunker Index MGO (BIX MGO) = avg. Global Bunker Price for marine gasoil (MGO) port prices; (BIX 380= avg. Global
Bunker Price for all 380 centistoke (cSt) port prices; both index published on the Bunker Index website., Forecast based on HIS Market assumption of avg. USD70 per Brent barrel equaling Nov18 price. 6) DHL Global Trade Barometer Mar19, index value represents weighted average of current growth and
upcoming two months of trade, a value at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and shrinking below 50.

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  Market Outlook June 2019 – Major Trades

Blank sailing program continues in June and carriers push further for rate increases
  EXPORT REGION               IMPORT REGION        CAPACITY               RATE           EXPORT REGION    IMPORT REGION            CAPACITY                RATE
                                  AMNO                 =                   =                                    AMNO                    =                    +
          EURO                                                                              AMLA
                                  AMLA                 =                   =                                    ASPA                    =                    =
                                  ASPA                 -                  -/=                                   EURO                    =                    =
                                 MENAT                 -                  -/=                                  MENAT                    =                    =
                                   SSA                 =                   =                                     SSA                    --                   ++

                                  AMLA                 =                   =                                    ASPA                   =/-                  =/+
          AMNO                                                                               ASPA
                                  ASPA                 =                   =                                    AMNO                    -                    +
                                  EURO                 =                   =                                    AMLA                    =                    +
                                 MENAT                 =                   =                                    EURO                    =                    +
                                   SSA                 =                   =                                   MENAT                    =                    +
                                                                                                              OCEANIA                   -                    +
               Strong          Moderate         No         Moderate       Strong
    KEY                  ++               +            =              -             --
              Increase         Increase       Change        Decline       Decline

Source: DGF

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  Market Outlook June 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Major Trades
     Market outlook on smaller trades available in the back-up

     OCEAN FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK

     ASPA – EURO                After the good utilization reported in May, carriers are pushing for another round of GRI in June.

     EURO – ASPA & MEA          Space continues to be tight. Blank sailings combined with strong commodity demand put pressure on space and container availability.

                                Enter the traditional peak period to AMLA, rates are expected to increase from mid-June 2019. All carriers reported no plans to inject
     ASPA – AMLA
                                additional capacity to MX/WCSA/ECSA.

     ASPA – AMNO                Carriers have started to adjust capacity with blank sailings in an effort to push spot rates to sustainable levels.

     EURO – AMNO                Rates are extended unchanged and space remains tight. MX: Space is tight
                                Pre-Ramadan rush – an increase in booking, while carriers are also restricting low paying cargo on board, and thus creating severe space
     ASPA – MENAT
                                issues. Successful GRI in May and Carriers intending to go for another round of GRI in June.
                                Space on the IPBC trade remains tight, especially to Chittagong. Several blank sailings have been announced for June and July with the
     ASPA – ASPA
                                carriers pushing for the GRI.

     AMNO – EURO                Rates will remain flat through end of Q2. Slight decrease of capacity from USEC to EUR expected for week 24 & 25.

Source: DGF

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  Economic Outlook & Demand Development
  Global economic growth is firming, but risk of policy mistake has risen sharply
                                 Eurozone real GDP doubled the pace in Q1compared to the final two quarters in 2018. Private consumption benefited from moderating energy
                                 inflation rates, resilient employment, & higher compensation growth. The drag from net trade appears to have eased, with export growth
           EURO
                                 improving somewhat. Meanwhile the uncertainty about Brexit continues, as the decision deadline has been extended to the end of Oct. The UK
                                 economy will lose some momentum in Q2 & Q3 as the stocking up that boosted Q1 real GDP growth unwinds.

                                 Robust Q1 pace in the US is expected to be temporary, as it was driven by inventory investment & net exports, two sources of strength that could
           AMNO
                                 easily reverse in the next quarter. Recently announced tariff increases by the US & CN will further erode growth.

                                 Real exports of goods & services from JP declines in Q1, reflecting repercussions from US-CN trade tensions & sluggish IT-related demand. CN’s
                                 economic growth held steady in Q1, largely due to surging exports, mostly to the EU & ASEAN. Given EU’s sluggish growth outlook, the
           ASPA
                                 sustainability of the export rebound is questionable. An even bigger risk is the recent increase in US tariffs on CN exports, which will directly lower
                                 growth this year & next. CN government has gradually ramped up fiscal & monetary stimulus to support growth and will do more if needed.

       EMERGING                  Re-escalating trade conflict between the US & CN will damage growth, both directly & indirectly. Other anxieties include a bad combination of
       MARKETS                   politics & economics (recessions) in AR & TR, as well as a dangerous escalation of the conflict between Iran & the US.

                                 The latest purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) reflect a broadly stagnant manufacturing economy & slower service-sector growth. Uncertainty
      DEMAND                     & trade wars remained the most commonly cited causes of reduced optimism. Especially modest readings were seen in the UK, Eurozone, & JP.
    DEVELOPMENT                  Although the US led the developed world PMIs, the rate of growth eased markedly in Apr to close the gap with the other major developed
                                 economies.

Source: IHS Markit, IHS Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, a PMI at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and business shrinking below 50.

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 Carriers 1/3
 CARRIERS
ONE has reported a net loss of USD -586m for its 1st year of operations, based on the Japanese fiscal year that runs from April to March. Fiscal Q4 earnings were the
strongest of all 4 quarters, but results remained negative due to a substantial reduction in liftings during the last quarter, especially on the TP route. ONE expects to post a
positive result in the coming financial year, with full year net profits of USD 85m.It expects however H2 to be negative in part because of bunker cost increases from IMO
2020. The carrier believes that most, if not all, of the bunker costs increase will be offset by the ‘ONE Bunker Surcharge’ (OBS) that it intends to apply.
COSCO Shipping Holdings has reported a net profit of RMB 687m for Q1 ’19, an increase of 280% over the same period of last year. Earnings included subsidies from the
CN government of RMB 63.6m in Q1 ’19, compared to RMB 59.4m in the same quarter last year. The container shipping business posted a 62% increase in revenue to
RMB 33.45bn, due to consolidation of OOCL since Aug ’18.
Hapag-Lloyd has reported a net profit of EUR 92m in Q1 ’19, significantly improving from the net loss of EUR -38m in the same quarter last year. The improvement was
due to a 2.4% increase in liftings and a 4.8% increase in average freight rates. The lifting gains were driven by increased volumes on its FE-Europe, EMAO & Transatlantic
tradelanes, but offset partly by reductions on its intra-Asia, Middle East & Transpacific volumes. Hapag-Lloyd’s operating margin improved to 7.0% for its best
performance since Q1 ’15.
COSCO Shipping and OOIL jointly announced on 29 Apr 119 the sale of their interest in the Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT) for a total price of USD 1.78bn to an
infrastructure investment fund. The disposal was mandated by US authorities last year as part of the conditions for COSOC’s acquisition of OOCL in 2018.
Singamas, a 41% subsidiary of PIL has announced on 6 May ’19 the sale of three of its largest container manufacturing factories in CN to COSCO Shipping Financial
Holdings of a total price of RMB 3.8bn (USD 565m). These represent more than 65% of Singamas’ current container production capacity of about 850’000 TEU p.a.

HMM has reported another negative quarter in Q1 ’19, recording a net loss of KRW 178bn (USD 159m). Its container shipping segment
posted an operating loss of USD 96bn (USD 85m), its 19th consecutive quarter of negative earnings since 2014.
          On 20 May HMM has also unveiled a new corporate identity with a new logo
Yang Ming has reported a net loss of TWD -682m (USD -22m), after taking into account higher interest expenses & other finance costs of TWD 990m (USD 32m).The
results were negatively impacted by new accounting rules that came into effect this year that require the recognition of vessel leases on its balance sheet that had
resulted in a 49% increase in Yang Ming’s total liabilities to reach TW 179bn (USD 5.8bn) as at the end of March.
Source: Alphaliner, Dynaliners, carriers

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 Carriers 2/3
  CARRIERS
Maersk has reported a net loss of USD 659m in Q1’19, including a USD 552m loss on its discontinued business for Maersk Drilling. For its continuing business segments
Ocean, Logistics, Terminals, Manufacturing and Others, the net loss still reached USD 104m. For its Ocean business, Maersk continued to lose market share with total
liftings falling by 2.2% to 6,301m TEU in Q1’19 compared to Q1’18. This was partly compensated by a 3.9% increase in average freight rates.
The company said that it will continue to maintain its policy adopted since 2016 of not starting any new large terminal projects or order any new large ships.
ZIM has reported a net loss of USD 25m in Q1’19, continuing its negative streak for the sixth consecutive quarter. Volatile rate conditions continued to weight down ZIMs
earnings even though average rates improved by 8.6% compared to the same quarter last year. The results were also negatively impacted by a 4.3% reduction in total
liftings to 668,000 TEU, compared to Q1’18.

Source: Alphaliner, Dynaliners, carriers

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Carriers 3/3
Top 10 Carriers by Operated Capacity (in ‘000 TEU) as at 1 April 2019
The top 10 carriers control 82% of the existing world container fleet

4.5                                                              The carriers in the ranking are the same as one year ago, and are in the
                                                                 same order except for HMM and PIL that switched places.
4.0                                                              All carriers have increased their operated capacity compared to previous
                                                                 year except for Maersk that has downsized its fleet by -2%.
3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
         Maersk Line   MSC         Cosco      CMA CGM     Hapag-Lloyd       ONE          Evergreen      Yang Ming         HMM               PIL      Other carriers
                                  Shipping
Source: Alphaliner

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  Capacity Development

      CAPACITY
    The OCEAN Alliance carriers have announced the cancellation of 3 transpacific sailings in June. The Far East – USWC ‘PSW1’ sailing from Fuzhou on 2 June (APL
    ESPLANADE 13,892 TEU), the Far East – USWC ‘PNW4’ sailing from Shekou on 4 June (OOCL OAKLAND 5,888 TEU) and the Far East – USEC ‘AWE4’ sailing from
    Qingdao on 18 June (APL SANTIAGO 9,326 TEU). These cancellations, taking place during what should have been the start of the busy peak season, further confirm a
    weakening demand following the implementation of increased tariffs in trade between China and the USA.
    Maersk Line and Hamburg Süd are to launch in June a new North Europe – NCSA – West Coast South America service covering Columbia, Panama, Chile and Peru. They
    will brand it ‘CLX’ and ‘SAWC1’ respectively. The new service will be run with 4,500 TEU high-reefer capacity ships and it will encompass the current North Europe –
    NCSA – ‘Colombia Express’ operated with 2,500 TEU ships as part of a larger service reshuffle.
    CMA CGM has disclosed full details of its revised service offering between Europe, the Caribbean, and the West Coast of South America. Three direct loops and a new
    transhipment alternative will be offered. The changes do not come unexpected, as Hapag-Lloyd had earlier announced its withdrawal from two joint services with CMA
    CGM. The moves are also related to the up-sizing of the “New MedCaribe” service to the LCS scale.
    Wan Hai and PIL have replaced their Far East-Middle East ‘CMS’ joint service, run with six ships of 4,500-6,600 TEU, by new alternatives, consisting mostly in slot
    allocations on the new high capacity ‘MEX’ service organized in Apr by COSCO Shipping.

    The idle containership fleet has reversed its recent downward trend, with the latest fleet survey recording an increase in the number of idle units to 126 units for
    369,080 TEU as at 13 May, 2019, representing 1.6% of the total fleet. The increase were driven mainly by a rise in the number of skipped sailings due to the May
    holidays in the Far East, which put several ships temporarily out of work. An increase in the number of containerships redeliveries in the last 2 weeks has also resulted in
    more spot tonnage that is open for charter, with idle number rising again in the smaller sizes of bellow 2,000 TEU, as well as the classic panamax sector.

Source: Alphaliner, Dynaliners, carriers

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Did you know?
  Reduced estimate for 2019 container throughput
 The containership supply and demand imbalance is expected to persist in 2019

 The estimation for the global container throughput growth 2019 was reduced from 3.6% to 2.5%. Weakening throughput growth in the year’s first quarter, and the
 expected decline in transpacific volumes as a result of an escalating US-China trade war, have weighed on full-year projections for container volume growth.
 Despite the uncertainties over the global trade environment, continer volumes are still expected to achieve positive growth in 2019 – albeit at a much lower rate than
 in the previous two years. According to a sample of more than 250 ports, Q1 2019 growth only reached 2.8% globally. It has slowed down from 6.6% in the Q1 2018 and
 from 4.7% in Q4 2018.
 The rate growth is unevenly spread between regions. Several emerging markets have posted negative
 cargo volume growth and thus pulled down the global growth rate.

 The weakness in Middle East volumes was caused by a 57% drop in containers handled at Iranian ports
 and volume declines at the transhipment hubs of Jebel Ali and Salalah.
 African volumes were driven down by the weak perfomance in South African ports and Australian
 ports also posted negative volume growths.
 Among the gainers, both Chinese and American ports reported healthy cargo increases in Q1 2019
 and volumes increased despite the ongoing trade tensions between the two countries.

 However the escalation of the trade war between China and the US is expected to bring down
 container volume growth rates in both countries over the coming quarters. The OCEAN Alliance
 carriers have already announced three void transpacific sailings in June in anticipation of the drop in
 volumes with mor carriers expected to follow.

Source: Alphaliner

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B A C K- U P
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  Market Outlook June 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (1/2)

     OCEAN FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK

                    Service restructuring to Caribbean and WCSA from the major carriers is expected to bring improved service while retaining rate
     EURO – AMLA
                    competitiveness. Space situation is stable with no allocation issues foreseen.

     EURO – MENAT   ME region shows same trend as ASPA; low space but stable rates

                    Rates remain stable and space is available. Congestion / PSS surcharge for PODs in Nigeria from all carriers remain for now, but situation shall
     EURO – SSA
                    become better soon.

                    Rates in the market are stable. Space continued to be tight again out of USEC & USGC Ports on services to M.East & India Subcontinent.
     AMNO – MENAT
                    May-June bookings are min. 2 weeks out.
                    Despite the GRI announcements in the first quarter, rates to South Africa and West Africa remained unchanged and no GRI in the horizon.
     AMNO – SSA
                    No changes in capacity. Space is available.

                    CMA restructuring US to AMLA service causing a small ripple of interruption. ECUS to WCSA service will change with Hamburg Sud and
     AMNO – AMLA
                    Hapag Lloyd mid June resulting with all cargo trans-shipped in the lane.

                    Roll over and space constraints affecting entire region
                    Equipment deficits in Colombia, Peru, EC creating delays in bookings
     AMLA Exports   Fuel shortages in Mexico causing intermodal delays and trucker availability
                    Congestion in T/Shipment ports within CENAC continue
                    Carriers continue to be reluctant in offering conditions without a cost(F/Time, Special Equipment)

                    Stable rates in market with some flexibility on pricing for NAC’s. No GRI’s announced for remainder of Q2.
     AMNO – ASPA
                    Bunker component will be broken out of ocean base by Q3 for those carriers who have not adjusted the traditional all-inclusive pricing
Source: DGF

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  Market Outlook June 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (2/2)

     OCEAN FREIGHT RATES OUTLOOK
     EURO MED - AMNO    Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
     EURO MED – AMLA    Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
     EURO MED – ASPA    Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
     EURO MED – MENAT   Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
     EURO MED – SSA     Unchanged / stable. Nothing to be highlighted
                        Demand recovery is still slow hence, in order to imbue market recovery, carriers have proposed to implement blank sailings in hopes of
     ASPA-SPAC
                        improving the rates.

Source: DGF

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  Market Outlook – Volume Outlook in Main Trade Lanes, 2018 Estimate &
  2019/22 Growth Forecast in %
                                                                                                                                        2018e, in mTEU   2019e-2022e CAGR, in %

            N O R T H                                                                                                                                  N O R T H
          A M E R I C A                                                                                                                              A M E R I C A
              I n c l .                 4.0 mTEU   +2.4%                                                                          8.5 mTEU   +4.7%      I n c l .
            M E X I C O                                                                           F A R   E A S T                                     M E X I C O

                                        2.2 mTEU   +3.1%                       12.8 mTEU +2.4%                                   18.7   mTEU +3.1%

 2.0 mTEU       1.6 mTEU
    +4.5%          +4.3%                1.6 mTEU   +4.3%    E U R O P E        7.3 mTEU   +3.4%                                   1.7 mTEU   +2.2%
                           L A T I N                                                                                                                                 L A T I N
                                                           I n c l .   M E D
                        A M E R I C A   1.7 mTEU   +2.5%                                                                          4.2 mTEU   +4.6%              A M E R I C A
                                                                                                  INTRA ASIA
                                                                                                    excl. Oceania

                                                                                                  41.6 mTEU +4.8%

                     GLOBAL CONTAINER TRADE 2018e                                      152.6 mTEU            +4.1% CAGR 2019e-2022e

                                                            Mid-term growth is mainly driven by Asian tradelanes.

Source: Seabury Nov18 update

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  Carrier Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances

                                                M E R G E R S                 A N D     A Q U I S I T I O N S

                                                                                 United      Hyundai
      China                                                   CMA    Hapag                              Hamburg    Maersk                                       Yang
                      Cosco   OOCL Evergreen APL                                  Arab       Merchant                          MSC         K Line   MOL   NYK
     Shipping                                                 CGM    Lloyd                                Süd       Line                                        Ming
                                                                                Shipping      Marine
                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                              HYUNDAI
      CHINA COSCO SHIPPING                EVER      CMA CGM                                               MAERSK LINE                       OCEAN NETWORK       YANG
                                                                       HAPAG-LLOYD           MERCHANT                          MSC
              OOCL                       GREEN        APL                                     MARINE      Hamburg Süd                        EXPRESS (ONE)      MING

                                                                               A L L I A N C E S
                         F O R M E R       A L L I A N C E S                                                 P R E S E N T             A L L I A N C E S
                                                                                                                         MAERSK LINE                                        OOCL
                                                                                   CMA CGM
                                                                                                                                    MSC
                                  MAERSK LINE                             CHINA SHIPPING                                                    OCEAN                        CMA CGM
 2M                                             OCEAN 3                                       2M                        HMM (strategic
                                         MSC                                 UNITED ARAB
                                                                                                                   cooperation until May
                                                                                                                                            ALLIANCE         CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
                                                                       SHIPPING COMPANY                                                                               EVERGREEN
                                                                                                                                  2020)

                    HAPAG-LLOYD      HYUNDAI                         COSCO
                                                                                                                        HAPAG-LLOYD
                            MOL    MERCHANT                    EVERGREEN            K-LINE
 G6                                   MARINE    CKYHE                                         THE ALLIANCE                         ONE
                            NYK                                      HANJIN     YANG MING
                                       OOCL                                                                                YANG MING
                            APL                                     SHPPING
*Source: Carriers

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Carrier Financial Results 2018, as at 24 May 2019

Only six of the 11 top carriers who publish their financial results ended in the black, often with marginal net profits.

 CARRIER FINANCIAL RESULTS FULL YEAR 2017-18 (US$ MILLION)
                                                                              Revenue                                  Operating Profit                            Operating Profit Margin                                 Net Profit
 Carrier                                                            2017          2018              %              2017      2018                     %              2017          2018                         2017           2018               %
 Maersk (Ocean business)             7), 8)                           22'023           28'366 29%                      2'777             3'007            8%               12.6%              10.6%                    n.a.             n.a.        n.a.
 CMA CGM 2), 5)                                                       21'116           23'476 11%                      1'575               610        -61%                   7.5%              2.6%                    701                34       -95%
 COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 1), 5)                                       12'814           17'376 36%                         267              342         28%                   2.1%              2.0%                    264              252         -5%
 Hapag-Lloyd 1), 5), 8)                                               13'414           15'583 16%                      1'419             1'540            8%               10.6%               9.9%                     44                63        43%
 OOCL (container transport & logistics) 5), 11)                        6'078            6'547        8%                   105              210       100%                    1.7%              3.2%                    -12                55      558%
 Evergreen Marine Corp. 1), 5)                                         4'933            5'626       14%                   223                  6      -97%                   4.5%              0.1%                    229                10       -96%
 Yang Ming 1), 5)                                                      4'294            4'715       10%                     17            -191 -1236%                        0.4%             -4.0%                     11             -219 -2184%
 ONE 3)                                                                   n.a.          8'054 n.m.                        n.a.             n.a.        n.m.                    n.a.             n.m.                   n.a.            -491        n.m.
 Zim 5)                                                                2'978            3'248        9%                   162                34       -79%                   5.4%              1.0%                       6            -126 -2200%
 Wan Hai 1)                                                            2'045            2'182        7%                   106                32       -70%                   5.2%              1.5%                     86                37       -57%
 HMM (container shipping business 1), 5)                                  3.9              4.2       8%                 -0.28            -0.45         62%                  -7.2%            -10.8%                    n.a.             n.a.        n.a.

 Average 9)                                                        89'700.1 107'124.3               19%             6'650.2          5'589.2          -16%                   7.4%              5.2%             1'328.8              105.1         -92%

Source: Alphaliner, DynaLiners; n.a. = not available, n.m. = not meaningful, 1) local currency numbers were converted into US$ using the average exchange rate for relevant financial period, 2) CMA CGM include NOL/APL, 3) results are full Japanese
financial year, i.e. Apr18-Mar19, not calendar year, 5) operating profit is “Core EBIT”, 6) including UASC from 24 May 17, 7) including Hamburg Sued from 1 Dec 17, 8) operating profit is EBITDA, 9) Average excluding ONE, 10) incl. OOCL from 7 Aug 18, 11)
excl. Long Beach Container Terminal in 2018 & real estate investments

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Acronyms and Explanations
       AMLA       -   Latin America                                OCRS      -   Operational Cost Recovery surcharge
       AMNO       -   North America                                OOCL      -   Orient Overseas Container Line
            AR    -   Argentina                                     OWS      -   Overweight Surcharge
        ASPA      -   AsiaPacific                                      PH    -   Philippines
            BR    -   Brazil                                        PNW      -   Pacific North West
        CAGR      -   Compound Annual Growth Rate                     Ppt.   -   Percentage points
      CENAC       -   Central Amercia and Caribbean                  PSW     -   Pacific South West
          CNC     -   CNC Line (Cheng Lie Navigation Co. Ltd.)      SAEC     -   South America East Coast
           DG     -   Dangerous Goods                              SAWC      -   South America West Coast
         DWT      -   Dead Weight Tonnage                         SOLAS      -   Safety of Life at Sea
            EB    -   Eastbound                                    SPRC      -   South People’s Republic of China – South China
        ECSA      -   East Coast South America                       SSA     -   Sub-Saharan Africa
        EGLV      -   Evergreen Marine Corp                           SSL    -   Steam Ship Line
       EURO       -   Europe                                            T    -   Thousands
         FMC      -   US Federal Marine Commission                   TEU     -   Twenty foot equivalent unit (20‘ container)
           GRI    -   General Rate Increase                          TSA     -   Trans Pacific Stabilization Agreement
        HMM       -   Hyundai                                      USGC      -   US Gulf Coast
            HL    -   Hapag -Lloyd                               US FMC      -   US Federal Maritime Commission
       HSUD       -   Hamburg Süd                                  USEC      -   US East Coast
         HWS      -   Heavy Weight Surcharge                      USWC       -   US West Coast
             IA   -   Intra Asia                                    VGM      -   Verified Gross Mass
         IPBC     -   India Pakistan Bangladesh Colombo             VLCS     -   Very Large Container Ship
            IPI   -   Inland Point Intermodal                        VSA     -   Vessel Sharing Agreement
           ISC    -   Indian Sub Continent                            WB     -   Westbound
      MENAT       -   Middle East and North Africa                 WCSA      -   West Coast South America
           ML     -   Maersk Line                                   WHL      -   Wan Hai
           mn     -   Millions                                       YML     -   Yang Ming Line
        MoM       -   Month-on-Month                                  YoY    -   Year-on-Year
         NOO      -   Non-operating (vessel) owners                  YTD     -   Year-to-Date

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