Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management

Page created by Daniel Cobb
 
CONTINUE READING
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
Outlook 2H 2020
August 2020
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
Contents

Preface: Investing under the new norms                      3

China in focus: The post-COVID-19 era                       5
     The post-pandemic recovery path

     Concerted policy easing, yet of varying scales
     Sino-U.S. relations and investment implications
     Valuation and opportunities

China equities: Intact structural opportunities             8
     Five key investment themes

Asian credits: Hunting for value in a fragile world         12
     The price of central banks doing “whatever it takes”
     A risk rally or a risky rally?
     Actively balancing risk and return
     Hunting for China value
     Sustained demand backs China’s property
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                                                                                                                       3

Preface:
Investing under the
new norms
In planning investments, investors must deal with two new norms in the world: the human
behavioral changes due to COVID-19, and the increased liquidity combined with the
extended low interest rate era, a combination of both implied a tectonic shift of investment
markets nowadays. The result of these two factors has become even more vivid as the
pandemic disrupted the economy.

Post-pandemic new orders
At the beginning of 2020, the market enjoyed an upbeat start, which was reflected globally in the prevailing risk-on sentiments. The
concerted bullish views of the majority were then disturbed by the outbreak of COVID-19. In a nutshell, affected countries contribute more
than 50% of global GDP growth1.

Amid the lock-down, two new norms were observed. Firstly, people have turned more time spent from offline to online, particularly services
and content instead of spending at brick and mortar locations. This had the world to ponder how such extended period of new living
behavior will shape the economy both from corporate and individual level going forward. Secondly, the hit on the economy also brings the
world unprecedented monetary and fiscal easing. The asset purchase programs implemented by the Central banks in the west has
flooded the financial system and extended the low interest rate era. Under such backdrop, virtually risk-free instruments, such as
government bonds, have returned so little that it propels investors to raise risk appetite for higher returns.

In addition to the two new norms in the market, we identify the key macro factors that investors should take into account in the second half
of 2020 (Fig 1).

1 Source: Value Partners and Bloomberg
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020       4

Fig 1: Summary of the key macro factors in the 2H 2020

    Re-escalating tensions between China
                             and the U.S.                                                   Presidential election in the U.S.
The re-escalation of Sino-U.S. tensions started towards the end              With the U.S. presidential election scheduled in November, multiple
of the first half of 2020. The rebuttal between the two is expected          political flashpoints would swing market directions towards the end
to extend to the second half. The U.S. administration considered             of 2020. This is heavily linked to the U.S. policy toward China of
to restrict the outbound transfer of technical know-how to                   the next president in office, which signals implications of the future
mainland Chinese tech players. We take the conflicts as an                   U.S.-China relations.
extension of the agriculture-centered truce inked between the
two superpowers earlier the year.

                                                                              Possibility of a second wave outbreak of
            Economic ramification of COVID-19                                                               COVID-19
The exact economic implications of the pandemic and shut-                    As vaccines or a cure are yet to be made available, risks of a
down are still being measured. Hence, it is particularly crucial             second wave outbreak remain. In our view, the impacts from a
to analyze how a company could keep business operating in                    second wave would be less severe than the first occurrence.
the face of a stalled domestic and foreign economy. Quality                  Governments globally have obtained experiences to impose
companies running a strong balance sheet and cash flow tends
                                                                             stringent virus and border control with a clear and detailed
to get through major events more easily than the weaker peers,
                                                                             framework whenever it is needed.
potentially subject to substantial solvency risks.

                                                      Central bank policy execution

                                       Weighty central bank policies set the market directions. In
                                       particularly after COVID-19, many economies expand monetary
                                       facility and fiscal support, with some even promise an unlimited
                                       amount. The riskier fallen angels are in the Fed’s reach as part
                                       of the asset-purchase program. We continue to track the policy
                                       effectiveness to land the economy and the implications of the
                                       massive buying.

Opportunities and risks
Following the two new norms and the macro factors, we summarize our views from a global multi-asset perspective in Fig 2 and
selective opportunities in China that remain relevant.

Fig 2: Value Partners Asset Class Views

 Equities                                        Bonds                                            Alternatives
 U.S.                                            U.S. Treasury                                    Real Estate

 Europe                                          Other developed markets Treasury                 Precious Metal

 Japan                                           U.S./ European investment grade                  Cyclical Commodities

 North Asia (ex-Japan)                           Asian investment grade                           Gold

 South Asia                                      U.S./ European high yield                        Cash

 Other emerging markets                          Asian high yield

                                                 Emerging markets bond

Source: Value Partners, July 2020

    Add exposure                    Remain the same              Reduce
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                                                                                                                5

China in focus:
the post-COVID-19 era
We broadly categorize the backdrop facing equity investors into four key points that impact
the markets during and after the pandemic. China emerges with its “first in, first out”
experience, which is to play out in the second half of the year, and stands on its own feet
despite geopolitical challenges.

The post-pandemic recovery path                                       Fig 3: Macro data highlights (YoY growth %)
The worst of the pandemic is likely behind us. One of the
                                                                                        March 2020       April 2020      May 2020
signposts we are using to track the impacts of the pandemic is
                                                                       Electricity
high-frequency data from different channels. Data shows that                               -4.6%           +0.3%           +4.3%
                                                                       production
Asia, particularly China, is ahead of the recovery curve, or as we
put it, a “first in first out” case. Fig 3 showcases the sequential    Retail sales       -15.8%           -7.5%           -2.8%
growth recorded in various aspects in China.
                                                                       New home
                                                                                          -13.9%           -1.5%           +9.3%
                                                                       sales
The countries that discovered and recovered from the pandemic          Fixed Asset
                                                                                           -9.4%           +0.7%           +3.9%
early, such as China, Taiwan and Korea, share similar                  Investment
experiences. They tend to i) run an active virus tracking system,      Caixin China
                                                                                             43             44.4             55
ii) adopt a stringent testing approach and iii) conduct regular        services PMI
neighborhood surveillance to stem the infection chain from
expanding. Though, we do not feel complacent about the
                                                                                                   Sequential growth
flattened curve and maintain our constant watch over the
                                                                      Source: CEIC, CICC Research, Xinhuanet, June 2020
recovery progress.
                                                                      promised an unlimited amount and purchase of recent fallen
Concerted policy easing, yet of varying                               angels.

scales
                                                                      Such a scale of rescue package can help anchor the economy
Policy easing is prevalent in virtually every country in the world.
                                                                      and the injection of money to the system also implies an
The U.S. Federal Reserve took the rates to its record low twice
                                                                      inflation in the capital markets and asset prices. While monetary
in the first half of 2020, ahead of its regular committee meeting.
                                                                      and fiscal easing policies are all enforced globally, unlike the
In the middle of the unprecedented lockdown, the Fed also
                                                                      Western
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020        6

                                                                       In our view, decoupling China and the U.S. – arguably a pair of
Fig 4: The scale of policy easing among major central
banks                                                                  complementary powers – would complicate the solutions to the
                                                                       world’s problems. In fact, necessity makes it a logical situation
                                                                       where the U.S. and China will have to become partners.

                                                                       While the headlines are loaded with a rhetoric that the Sino-U.S.
                                                                       relationship falls out, we take a somewhat contrarian view. Our
                                                                       view is that the future direction of their relationship would move
                                                                       towards cooperation out of sharing necessity. On this basis,
                                                                       we would envision that after the U.S. presidential election in
                                                                       November, the relations would stabilize.

                                                                       Indeed, there is a possibility to realize another side of the story,
                                                                       where China’s tensions with America will remain strained. In that
                                                                       event, China continues to offer vast investment opportunities
Source: Wind, Bloomberg, 30 June 2020                                  with its domestic reforms and development. But, if we are right
                                                                       about refreshed or recovered relations, Chinese equity markets
countries, Asia, especially China, did not employ an aggressive
                                                                       shall enjoy a substantial rerating. The recovery in that
asset purchase program during the pandemic (Fig 4).
                                                                       relationship expand the room for foreign interests in China by a
                                                                       significant margin.
Instead, China focused on loosening credit facilities to assist
enterprises in overcoming such a public health crisis.
Meanwhile, Asia’s economy also runs a fiscal deficit to GDP
                                                                       Valuation and opportunities
that is already close to 10%, nearing Global Financial Crisis          The liquidity in the market seeks to park in good assets. While
levels2.                                                               the earnings outlook for the world equities stagnates in general,
                                                                       this has led to price-to-earnings ratio less indicative.
Sino-U.S. relations and its implications
                                                                       We look into the price-to-book ratio for equity estimates and
One of the major risk factors facing equity investors, especially
                                                                       such valuation is not particularly stretched despite the second
China-related markets, is the re-escalation of Sino-American
                                                                       quarter’s rally. For reference, the MSCI China Index currently
tensions. From a practical perspective, we believe that neither
                                                                       trades slightly above its long-term average. The same trend is
China nor the U.S. can afford a long term breakdown in their
                                                                       observed in the broader MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index.
relationship.

Fig 5: China onshore and offshore equities see an attractive relative valuation in view of its earnings growth

Source: FactSet, I/B/E/S, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Research, 31 July 2020

2 Source: Wind, Bloomberg. 31 July 2020
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                            7

Fig 6: MSCI China Index and valuation

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 31 July 2020.

Fig 7: MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index and valuation

Source: MSCI, Bloomberg, 31 July 2020
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020          8

China equities:
Intact structural opportunities
We recognize a growing number of uncertainties taking a toll on the outlook for the world
economy. Though, the opportunity set for the Greater China equity market that we highlight-
ed at the end of 2019 did not derail.

In our previous 2020 outlook report published at the beginning                 grown to RMB 335 in the first quarter of 2020, from RMB 288
of the year, we outlined how structural growth opportunities in                over the same period in 20193.
China could become a major winner, including the companies
that participate in consumption upgrade, 5G related hardware,                  In the long term, catalysts remain rising middle-class
e-commerce, private tertiary education and healthcare. The                     population and household income. Each year to 2025, an
resilience and performance of those sectors amid the                           extra 11 million will join the ranks of China’s high-income
pandemic strike over the last six months have epitomized the                   groups4. While individual saving levels are among the highest
case.                                                                          in the world
                                                                               and consumption still only accounts for a smaller proportion of
1. Consumption upgrade                                                         the GDP in China compared to developed countries such as
We reinforce that consumption will continue to be the                          Japan and the U.S., this situation is set to change markedly.
backbone of the Chinese economy in the future. During the
first quarter, when the virus raged on the mainland, the danger                2. 5G network
was that consumer activity weakens considerably as a result                    The 5G network rollout and capital expenditure deployment
of the lockdown caused by COVID-19. Though, specific                           remains solid despite a global pandemic. For instance, the
premium consumer products have delivered an impressive                         total 5G smartphone sales has been resilient (Fig 8), led by
recovery.                                                                      China, which rose from single digit percentage in the first
                                                                               quarter to 13% of global total sales in May; and it is expected
We take the high-end white liquor as an example. The                           to reach 35% in 20215.
distinguished baijiu brand, Kweichow Moutai saw its premium
Feitian Moutai market price per bottle recovered swiftly in                    Moreover, the deployment of 5G networks is set to open up
May to near its historical high recorded prior to the COVID-19                 more growth avenues, from consumer to industrial levels. This
outbreak.                                                                      will span a broad spectrum of industries over the next three
                                                                               to five years, including hardware and software development,
Another notable example is the upgrade trend in sport shoes.                   cloud servicing, and other support applications. On individual
In China, the average price for a pair of sports shoes has

3 Source: Wind, Bloomberg. 31 May 2020
4 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley, Citi Research, January 2019 Merrill Lynch Global Research
5 Source: GfK, June 2020
Outlook 2H 2020 August 2020 - Premium China Funds Management
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                                                                                                                     9

Fig 8: Penetration of 5G mobile phones

Source: Gfk, June 2020

Fig 9: Exponential growth of 5G connected devices                         level,   we   envision    that   Internet-connected    domestic
                                                                          appliances, or the so-called Internet of Things.

                                                                          Fig 9 indicates that the number of network connected devices
                                                                          is expected to increase from 9.1 billion in the current 4G era to
                                                                          25.2 billion thanks to 5G network that offers much enhanced
                                                                          bandwidth and connectivity6, resulting in a double digit annual
                                                                          growth rate in the sale of hardware devices. This represents
                                                                          a strong upside potential for companies that participate in this
                                                                          trend such as upstream component suppliers.

                                                                          Apart from the intact opportunity set, this space though faces
Source: Merrill Global Research, Dell’Oro, GSMA                           some unknowns over the near term. The re-escalation of
                                                                          Sino-U.S. conflicts towards the midyear is a major risk ahead
Fig 10: Total addressable e-commerce market in China
                                                                          and its impacts on the 5G value chain of Asia should not be
                                                                          overlooked.

                                                                          However, we see a reshuffling of the supply chain means
                                                                          reshuffling the set of winners and losers in the region. We
                                                                          closely monitor the negotiations between China and the U.S.
                                                                          and analyze the potential consequences and corporate
                                                                          reactions towards the transformation.

                                                                          3. E-commerce
                                                                          Online-to-offline services, such as home delivery for food,
                                                                          have gained traction when social distance among people is
Source: iResearch, Analysis, iMidea, J.P. Morgan, National Bureau of      much appreciated to avoid virus contagion. The new norms
Statistics, company disclosure; addressable market includes both online   during the outbreak have provided an additional boost to the
and offline
                                                                          adoption trend and growth across online platform operators.

                                                                          The services provided involve far more than simply transacting
                                                                          offline goods and services online via mobile applications.

6 Source: Merrill Global Research, Dell’Oro, GSMA
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020   10

Behind the scenes, complex data volume and optimization                      Fig 11: Insufficient supply remains to be fulfilled
algorithms are at work, determining the most efficient delivery
routes and bulking of orders.

Yet, despite the great variety of online services now available,
penetration, especially in lower-tier cities, remains low from a
monetization rate perspective (Fig 10).

4. Private tertiary education
In China, the government’s long term agenda for the
economy involves moving up the value chain – which
implies the country intends to transit towards a more
knowledge-intensive manufacturing destination from the
previous labor-intensive one. To accomplish this, China is
in need of an advanced and sound tertiary and vocational
education system that would allow to nurture a vast amount                   Source: CSCI Research, Frost and Sullivan, Morgan Stanley
of skilled talents domestically.                                             Fig 12: Average tuition fees of private higher education in
                                                                             2019/20 (in USD)
During the pandemic, the authorities increased college
admission to more than one million in April. This is to
encourage youngsters to pursue higher education and better
training before entering the job market. Though, such an
increase would not fulfill the accumulated inadequate supply.
In 2019, some 9.5 million candidates sit for the National
College Entrance Examination, the Gaokao, but only 7.5
million7 find places in tertiary education, creating a supply gap
for the remaining two million without places (Fig 11).
Penetration of higher education in China is still at an early                Source: UniPage, Value Partners

stage but set to grow markedly. China’s gross enrollment                     education players to transform their independent colleges for
rate, currently only 52% compared to 93% in the U.S. 8. It is a              a better profit profile over the medium term. The favorable
target to increase to 65% by 2035.                                           environment may create rooms for the merger and acquisition
                                                                             among independent schools and the active private operators.
Increases in tuition fees represent the increases in ‘ground                 Taking all these factors into account, Chinese higher
rent’. Currently, private universities in China charge annual                education has significant potential to be a source of strong
tuition fees of US$2,250 on average, whereas in the U.S.                     and stable investment and income growth in future.
the average can be as high as US$25,0009 (Fig 12). China’s
tuition fee is expected to grow by 5% per over the next five to              5. Healthcare
ten years, on par with the country’s GDP growth.                             In the first half, the sector outperformed on the back of its
                                                                             defensive nature and certain sub-sectors such as medical
Currently, the Chinese education market remains highly                       equipment rallied supported by strong demand pick-up amid
fragmented, indicating the availability of merger and                        COVID-19. Despite the rally, our long-term conviction towards
acquisition opportunities. Smaller private universities and                  the sector in China is unshaken, as the mainland’s healthcare
colleges in China might well be prepared to share their                      system continues to undergo an unprecedented reform cycle
ownership stakes with bigger players in order to benefit from                which create long-term investment opportunities.
economies of scale. In addition, the Ministry of Education in                The backbones driving the current reform are twofold. Firstly,
China announced the policy that would encourage leading                      an aging population. The over-65 population in China is
higher

7 Source: CSCI Research, Frost and Sullivan, Morgan Stanley
8 Source: Minstry of Education in China, World Bank, Trading Economics, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, October 2019
9 Source: Unipage
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                                                                                                                                  11

expected to reach 170 million by 2020 - 12% of the total                         Fig 13: Medical spending in proportion to GDP for China
population10 - inevitably increasing the need for improved                       and four major developed markets
healthcare and treatment solutions for chronic diseases,
including cancers and diabetes, in particular.

Secondly, medical spending per capita in China is only one-
fifth of the U.S. and still lags the world’s average11 (Fig 13).
The gap is expected to narrow due to the rising middle class
which seek for better healthcare treatment and the expansion
of medical insurance coverage nationwide.
                                                                                 Sources: National Health Commission, IMF, OECD, statistics bureau
That being said, key policy reforms started in late 2018 focus                   from the respective country, medical expenditure, 31 December 2019

on few areas including the expansion of medical insurance                        Fig 14: Healthcare section versus index earnings-per-
scheme, scrutinizing drug sales to ensure the medicine                           share growth
quality and fostering innovation drug sector. Such policies                                                               2020E           2021E
created both risks and opportunities within the sector. For
                                                                                   MSCI China Index                        0.9%           16.6%
instance, the implementation of the National Reimbursement
Drug List (NRDL) and the centralized procurement program                           Healthcare sector                      26.2%           17.9%
led to sector consolidation since late 2018.
                                                                                       Healthcare equipment               13.7%           15.2%

Against this backdrop, leaders in pharmaceutical area will                             Pharmaceutical,                    32.9%           19.2%
continue to be our focus as they could absorb the price                                Biotech and Life Science
pressure from the centralized procurement program better                         Source: CICC, June 2020
while maintaining the growth from their stronger research
pipeline over innovation and biosimilar drugs.

Fig 14 reports the forecasts for earnings per share growth for
Chinese corporates represented by the MSCI China Index
and the healthcare sector for 2020 and 2021. The healthcare
sector is expected to deliver a double-digit growth and to
outrun the broad index.

Conclusion
While China’s macro recovery is ahead of the curve and
prospects remain strong, we expect corporate earnings
recovery to be diverging among sectors. Due to the
unprecedented COVID-19 situations that present many
unknowns globally, we expect disparity on company earnings
and macro expectations to emerge. With that in mind, it is
particularly crucial for active managers to select quality
companies that are supported underlying fundamental
strengths, which we believe would be much more rewarding
in China’s recovery path.

10 Source: Population Pyramid, Statistics Bureaux of various countries, October 2019
11 Source: World Bank and Bernstein Research
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020        12

Asian credits:
Hunting for value in a fragile
world
Nowadays, policy easing is a universal way to land the global economy. Yet, with a varying
level of liquidity among countries, traditional sources of safety and income are outshined by
the risk-reward profile of Asian credits.
The price of central banks doing “whatever                            Today, to put all in perspective, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
it takes”                                                             touches its historic low of 0.7%12 and is hardly more attractive

The synchronized easing environment across the globe is               than some other assets that still can yield a respectful sum.

unlikely to be reversed over a short period. The near-zero or even
negative interest rates and expanding fiscal support are to remain
                                                                      A risk rally or a risky rally?
prevailing in the major markets.                                      Following the surprise from the oil price slump, the U.S. Federal
                                                                      Reserve decided to take the interest rates to its record low ahead
As previously mentioned, we expect an adequate level of liquidity     of its regular meeting schedule, twice. The Fed’s promise also
in the global system to maintain or to increase in selective          expanded to a new money-market support facility of an unlimited
markets over the second half of 2020. As such, the ample liquidity    amount to prop up the market. The unprecedented move of
will propel global investors to flock into assets yielding a higher   buying non-investment grade corporate bonds and the historic
income, making quality and stable credit names appealing.             scale of the rescue package have altogether flooded the market
                                                                      with massive liquidity.
During every equity market rout in the past, the U.S. treasury had
been the prime choice for investors who shy away from risks of        Easing of this extent has artificially suppressed interest rates and
further corrections. Investors opted for the U.S. treasury for its    taken important market information out from the proper pricing of
ability to counter some of the major market risks and to generate     risk assets. Their prices no longer reflect the risk-reward
income.                                                               considerations, but principally the Fed’s actions.

At the initial period of the outbreak, flight to safety had driven    The case is strong when we compare the rising trend of new
global money to the U.S. market. Later on, the rally was mostly       COVID-19 infected cases in the U.S. and the rallying S&P 500
driven by those who feel that they were missing out on the prior      Index and bond market (Fig 15). This reflects fundamentals
sharp rebound. What governed the capital flow was the investors’      detached from reality. Thus, the risk-reward in the U.S. market is
fear of missing the boat and underperforming the benchmark.           not entirely attractive.

12 Source: Bloomberg, 30 June 2020
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                                                                                                                13

Investors may question: Would the Fed and the expected               Actively balancing risk and return
V-shaped recovery in the U.S. economy disappoint the market?         At the crossroads, we trust that a portfolio of strong income
How long will this risk rally endure? More importantly, when will    generation, manageable volatility and capital appreciation can be
the so-called Day of Reckoning come? We are not entirely sure.       constructed.

Yet, one should recall what happened after the Fed decided to        We adopt a so-called “sandwich” strategy, in which we go down
reduce its scale of bond-buying program in 2013 (“Taper              the credit curve in long-duration investment grade bonds. On the
Tantrum”) and triggered a sharp spike in Treasury yields and         high yield side, we stay relatively closer to home, involving some
massive selloff of risk assets. Since the 2008 Global Financial      benchmark names rated at B or BB as well as selectively adding
Crisis, the market has become extremely used to central banks’       bonds of a B- rating.
rescue whenever there is a massive market rout.
                                                                     As mentioned, a degree of credit spread exists between China’s
Global central banks are now on the hook to such market              bond market and the developed markets. The company
expectations, which has burnt deep into investors’ minds. Central    fundamentals remain strong, and coupled with policy support,
banks have to keep doing more and more to satisfy an ever-           present a great opportunity for medium, long term investors given
demanding market. Any rhetoric and intention to do less would        its current level of valuation.
have an undesirable effect on the market.
                                                                        Food for thoughts:
Today, the room for central banks to maneuver around crises             Would the U.S. Federal Reserve and the
is narrow. The ultra-low rate policies have distorted what an           expected V-shaped recovery in the U.S.
economic cycle would typically look like and traditionally how the
                                                                        economy disappoint the market? How
central banks follow the flow and adjust the rates when needed.
Under such a fragile backdrop, where do investors still find value
                                                                        long will this risk rally endure? When will
in the case of bond investing?                                          be the Day of Reckoning?

Fig 15: The U.S. equity and bond markets rose, despite the escalating COVID-19 situation

Source: Bloomberg, 30 June 2020
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020       14

Following the market correction, we prioritize portfolio liquidity   in Asia, continue to provide a decent liquidity and refinancing
to cope with potential market uncertainties. When the market         profile, thanks to the favorable onshore funding and preemptive
begins to rebound and investors re-enter the market, they will       offshore funding. On the flipside, uncertainties relating to the
usually purchase a large amount of high-yield bonds or relatively    economic recovery in the U.S., which puts pressure on bond
high-rated corporates. As a result, our funds increased in BB or     yields, also favorably supports Asian credit as a whole.
higher rated bonds in order to balance risk and return.
                                                                     As the Sino-U.S. relations worsen, oversold Asian and China
Hunting for China value                                              credits saw a widening spread between the two countries and
Mounting risks and minimized policy room in the U.S. put             made valuation more attractive, in particular Asian and China
forward a theory of sticking to where we find relative value.        issues of three- and five-year durations. Moreover, Chinese-is-
Compared to the U.S. and other developed markets, China, the         sued U.S. dollar bonds turned soft, providing us with a valuable
second-largest economy in the world, has been rather                 entry opportunity. We can purchase safer assets at a relatively
conservative in its monetary stance, even in the face of the         low price. We choose the performing Chinese corporates, which
trade war and COVID-19. China’s 10-year treasury still offers        are mostly domestic-facing and less impacted by swinging
                                                   13
an attractive yield of between 2.5% and 3.5% , relative to the       market sentiments, in order to obtain a stable stream of income.
rest of the world. Furthermore, credit issuers in China, and
even wider
                                                                     Fig 17: Yield Spread between Asian and U.S. comparable
                                                                     high yield bonds
Fig 16: Yield Spread between Asian and U.S. comparable
investment grade bonds

Source: Bloomberg, 30 June 2020

13 Source: Bloomberg, 30 June, 2020
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020                                                                                                                     15

Fig 18: China property: actual sales versus target over the past 10 years

Source: Citi, companies disclosure

Sustained demand backs China’s property                                  The pandemic highlights the importance of portfolio diversification.
With the passing of the pandemic, we expect businesses and the           On the strategy of high-yield bonds, purely analyzing the size of
economy to return to normal levels, people’s desire to purchase          the corporate is insufficient. Companies that only have projects in
will return. Previously pent-up housing needs will bring sales           one of two cities should be avoided as well, and we must be
growth in the second half and would even make up for losses of           aware of their cash flow. However, the most essential factors
the first half.                                                          remain to be the quality of the management, medium-term
                                                                         financial plans and the willingness to repay loans.
Leading real estate developers in China maintain an estimate of
positive sales growth for 2020 (Fig 18), even though sales may           Global markets continue to be fragile, and investors should expect
only reach 80% to 90% of the target. However, it is believed that        volatility to remain at an elevated level. The risks of a second
failure to reach the target will not affect real estate bond prices or   wave of the COVID-19 outbreak remain to be measured. In
yield heavily.                                                           addition, we are also mindful of the next U.S. president to be
                                                                         elected in November and the worsening relations between the
In terms of policy, we predict the continued policy easing would         U.S. and China. Investors have to be wary of underlying
be city-specific, with the ultimate goal of stabilizing house prices.    uncertainties and must take extra care before entering markets.
This minimizes the impact on the entire housing market.
PCFM Outlook 2H 2020              16

                                                                   Contact Us
Jonathan Wu                                                                                        Derek Paas
Executive Director | Head of Distribution & Operations                                             Asia Investment Specialist | State Manager
Chief Investment Specialist                                                                        (NSW/QLD/WA/ACT.NT)
Premium China Funds Management                                                                     Premium China Funds Management
Mobile: 0416 031 676                                                                               Mobile: 0406 608 388
Phone: (02) 9211 3888                                                                              Phone: (02) 9211 3888
Email: jonathan.wu@premiumchinafunds.com.au                                                        Email: derek.paas@premiumchinafunds.com.au

                                                  Clayton Coplestone
                                                  Investment Specialist (New Zealand)
                                                  Heathcote Investment Partners
                                                  Phone: 021 410 815 or 0508 410 815
                                                  Email: clayton@heathcoteinvestment.com

 Disclaimer: This document is prepared by Premium China Funds Management for general information only and does not constitute a prospectus, an offer or an
 invitation to subscribe to any securities, or advice in relation to any securities or financial products. It does not take into account the investment objectives, financial
 situation or needs of any person. You should assess whether the information is appropriate for you and consider talking to a financial adviser before making any
 investment decisions.
 The comments contained herein are expressions of belief only and should not be relied upon as authoritative or without the recipient’s own independent verification or
 in substitution for the exercise of judgment by any recipient, and are subject to change without notice.
 Premium China Funds Management is the trading name of Premium China Funds Management Pty Ltd ABN 98 113 856 214, ACN 113 856 214, Australian Financial
 Services Licence No. 291570.
 Equity Trustees Limited (“Equity Trustees”) ABN 46 004 031 298, AFSL No. 240975, is a subsidiary of EQT Holdings Limited, a publicly listed company on the
 Australian Stock Exchange (ASX:EQT), is the Responsible Entity and issuer of units in the Premium China Fund, Premium Asia Fund, Premium Asia Property Fund
 and Premium Asia Income Fund.
 The information is taken from sources which are believed to be accurate at the time, but neither Premium China Funds Management, Equity Trustees, Value Partners,
 nor any of its related parties, its directors or employees, provide warranty of accuracy or reliability in relation to information contained in this presentation, or accepts
 liability to any person who relies on it.
 Past performance is no indication of future performance. Unless expressly stated, none of the information should be taken to be a recommendation.
 Investors should consider the Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to each Fund in deciding whether to acquire or continue to hold units in the Fund. The PDS
 is available from www.premiumchinafunds.com.au.
You can also read