Part/Partie 1 Special Feature Article Article d'intérêt spécial - African Development Bank
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Part/Partie 1
Special Feature Article
Article d’intérêt spécial
1GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Green growth and poverty alleviation:
Risks and opportunities for Africa
ABSTRACT growth on the continent must take account of
Governments in Africa are eager to min- five dimensions: consumers, resources, tal-
imize the risks associated with green ent, capital, and innovation (Ibid). The African
“
growth and enhance the opportunities it Development Bank (AfDB) (2013a) recognizes
brings. Green growth is a departure from that, in order to be sustainable, the devel-
the resource-intensive business-as-usual opment agenda must move away from the The transition
growth of the past that has led to the de- business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Hence, to green growth
pletion of natural and other resources. The there is no alternative to green growth. In on the conti-
main risks discussed in this paper are low the Bank’s view, green growth means taking nent must take
levels of green growth readiness; potential action today to avoid losses and costs in the account of five
for dumping entry-level clean technologies; near future. dimensions: con-
and conditional trade for green growth. Op- sumers, resourc-
portunities include the completion of old re- Future costs may increase: (i) by delaying es, talent, capital,
newable energy mega-projects and a chance investment in education; (ii) from contin- and innovation.
to build climate-resilient infrastructure and ued natural resource degradation; and
settlements. The paper also discusses poli- (iii) from expanding urban settlements
cy initiatives such as readiness parameters; in areas vulnerable to floods or erosion
mainstreaming green growth; avoiding a one- with infrastructure that is not sufficiently
size-fits-all approach; prioritization of large, resilient (AfDB) (2013a: 32).
quick-win endeavours; better institutional co-
ordination; and developing a Green Growth Departure from the BAU development model
Index (GGI) for monitoring and evaluation. is a course that African leaders have ac-
“
cepted. In his keynote address during South
Key words: green growth, poverty reduction, Africa’s Green Growth Summit in 2010, Pres-
Africa, risks, opportunities ident Zuma observed: “We have no option Green growth
but to manage our natural resources in a offers an oppor-
sustainable way... We have no choice but tunity to design
INTRODUCTION to develop a green economy” (Zuma, 2010: infrastructure
Green growth is not a new phenomenon 4). So important is divergence from the BAU and manage
(Savaresi, 2012). However, the financial approach that the AfDB’s Ten-Year Strate- urban spaces and
meltdown of 2008 has triggered the recent gy (2013 to 2022) contains two objectives natural capital in
emphasis on the topic, as global leaders based on inclusiveness and green growth. a way that does
have decided to tackle long-standing en- Green growth offers an opportunity to de- not degrade
vironmental challenges, such as food and sign infrastructure and manage urban spac- the continent’s
energy, along with the economic crisis. Africa es and natural capital in a way that does environment and
has been designated the new global growth not degrade the continent’s environment economic base.
frontier (Accenture, 2010), but due diligence and economic base (AfDB, 2013a). To con-
is needed when green growth initiatives are tinue on the resource-intensive path taken
undertaken, particularly those aligned to in other parts of the world would create a
external interests. The transition to green biocapacity deficit and a range of environ-
3GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Table 1: Defining green growth
Author (Year/Page) Green Growth Definition/Explanations
World Bank (2012: 100) Green growth is about transforming our production and consumption processes
from a dirty, environmentally unsustainable model to a sustainable one. Like any
structural transition, it inevitably entails transition costs, which green growth
policies must seek to minimize.
OECD (2013: 2) Green growth promotes a cost-effective and resource-efficient way of guiding
sustainable production and consumption choices. When designed to reduce
poverty and manage near‑term trade-offs, green growth can help developing
countries achieve sustainable development.
AfDB (2013b: 1-2) Green growth protects livelihoods; improves water, energy and food security;
promotes the sustainable use of natural resources; and spurs innovation, job
creation and economic development. The Bank will support green growth by
finding paths to development that ease pressure on natural assets, while better
managing environmental, social and economic risks. Priorities in reaching green
growth include building resilience to climate shocks, providing sustainable
infrastructure, creating ecosystem services and making efficient and sustainable
use of natural resources (particularly water, which is central to growth but most
affected by climate change).
Sierra Leone Green growth means developing infrastructure, energy and cities sustainably;
Government – Agenda managing renewable and non-renewable natural resources efficiently; and
for Prosperity (AfDB building resilience for the benefit of citizens.
2013a: 14)
South African Green growth means a sustainable development path that is based on
Government (DEA, addressing the interdependence between economic growth, social protection
2013: 10) and natural ecosystems.
mental decay problems. By contrast, green tute an important source of jobs, income and
growth presents Africa an opportunity to livelihoods for the vast majority of the African
develop resource-efficient growth pathways, people” (ibid.: 3).
through the use of proven and cost-effective
technologies.
GREEN GROWTH: CURRENT
While abundant opportunities exist, green DEBATES AND UNDERSTANDING
growth is not without risks to African econ- Bowen and Fankhauser (2011) observe that
omies. Two examples are: (1) the forced shift green growth has become a buzzword and
from exporting bottled wine to bulk contain- slogan in the policy and academic commu-
ers in South Africa (Ntombela, 2013) that led nities. Similarly, Schmalensee (2012) notes
to job loss, and (2) the food miles saga in that “... wonderful slogans don’t necessarily
which the East African Community (EAC) hor- lead to wonderful actions—or even sensible
ticulture industry dumped flowers in the mid- ones.... Indeed, it is not just that green growth
to late-2000s (Garside et al., 2008). However, lacks a commonly accepted definition; rather,
the cost of doing nothing is huge for Africa, different groups often utilize the phrase to
whose resource-based sectors—agricul- mean or imply different things” (ibid.: S2).
ture, mining, forestry and fisheries (UNECA, Green growth has been linked to environ-
2012a)—remain the largest employment pro- mental sustainability, low carbon transition,
viders. Green growth should “maintain and climate-resilient growth and development,
enhance the natural capital that will consti- and a new impetus for economic develop-
4GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
ment. What then is “green growth”? Table 1 that reduce intergenerational poverty and
summarizes some of the definitions. income inequality. According to the AfDB,
green growth means making “smart” in-
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation vestments now that address food security,
and Development (OECD) has been driving sustainable infrastructure, energy and urban
the green growth agenda since 2008. In the settlement; that better manage natural re-
Organisation’s view, “Governments that put sources (land, fish stock, water and forests);
green growth at the heart of development can and that build resilience to natural disasters
achieve sustainable economic growth and and climate change.
social stability, safeguard the environment,
and conserve resources for future genera- The AfDB recognizes that green growth
“
tions” (OECD, 2013: 2). Such reconciliation building blocks are already in place on the
of economic development and environmental continent (AfDB, 2012: 155), including “na-
sustainability prevents natural capital deg- tional plans of action for adaptation, sus- ...by 2020, annual
radation and climate change, and promotes tainable land management, integrated water global adapta-
social security, outcomes that are critical for resource management and other initiatives tion costs from
Africa. The World Bank (2012: 1) describes created to promote resource use efficien- emissions could
current growth patterns as not only unsus- cy.” Strategic Environmental Assessments amount to US$7
tainable, but “deeply inefficient.” (SEA), for example, may assist in evaluating to 15 billion.
the impact of development on natural capital “Even where the
Green growth discussions inevitably include as the UNEP’s Threshold T21 model gains emissions gap is
degradation of natural capital and climate traction, given that it has already been used closed and we get
change. The United Nations Environmental by Kenya and South Africa. The AfDB (Ibid) onto a pathway
Programme (UNEP) report presents statistics advocates green growth mainstreaming into to hold warming
on the costs of climate change adaptation: development planning. This means the right below 2°C, by
by 2020, annual global adaptation costs institutions must be put in place at the right 2050, adaptation
from emissions could amount to US$7 to time, and provide the right incentives for pub- costs could hover
15 billion. “Even where the emissions gap is lic and private green investments. Poverty around US$ 35
closed and we get onto a pathway to hold Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs), coun- billion per year.
warming below 2°C, by 2050, adaptation try visions and national development plans
costs could hover around US$ 35 billion per are critical entry platforms for green growth
year” (UNEP, 2013a: v). For Africa, the report mainstreaming. To move swiftly toward green
estimates an annual bill of US$50 billion by growth, the AfDB suggests that African coun-
2050; US$350 billion by 2070 is possible tries and associated organizations have diag-
if the trend in global warming continues. nostics in support of efficient and sustainable
According to the report, essential sectors development trajectories; revamp policies,
such as water supply, infrastructure and ag- incentives and enforcement capacities; ex-
riculture will demand the highest adaptation pand financing options; and monitor, track
costs in SSA. and adapt development efforts.
Given the central role and relevance of the Monitoring, tracking and willingness to adapt
AfDB on the continent, the Bank’s defini- are instrumental in devising a Green Growth
tions of green growth and related elements Index (GGI). The use of gross domestic prod-
are used in this study. The AfDB’s Ten-Year uct (GDP) as a measure of development suc-
Strategy for 2013 to 2022 seeks to promote cess has been challenged (AfDB, 2012). To
inclusive growth and an emphasis on sus- this end, a GGI would incorporate new indi-
tainability through a gradual transition toward cators such as the state of natural capital;
green growth. Based on the AfDB’s definition, resource efficiency; and the resilience of live-
green growth extends beyond reducing car- lihoods and sectors to environmental, social,
bon emissions and must contain elements economic and political shocks and hazards.
51990 1999 2005 2008 2010 2015
GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
below US$1.25 per day; the estimate for
East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia
2010 was 48.5%. This is in sharp contrast
Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa
to East Asia and the Pacific where the fig-
South Asia Africa (excluding North Africa)
ure fell 56.2% to 12.5%. Most regions are
70
forecasting to have fewer than 6% of their
60
populations living on less than US$1.25 per
50
Percentage
40
day by 2015 (the end of the MDGs); with
30 only South Asia and Africa projected to have
20 alarmingly high rates of 23.2% and 42.3%,
10 respectively (AfDB, 2013c).
0
1990 1999 2005 2008 2010 2015
According to the International Labour Organi-
sation (ILO, 2012: vii), “the resource-intensive
Figure 1: Regional poverty rates (% population living development model of the past will lead to
below US$1.25/day) rising costs, loss of productivity and disrup-
tion of economic activity.” Projections sug-
Source: Data from AfDB, 2013c: 2
gest that under the BAU scenario, productiv-
ity levels will have dropped by 2.4% in 2030,
and by 7.2% in 2050. The BAU development
model is also considered to be inefficient
ENDEMIC POVERTY, EMPLOYMENT with regard to productive employment and
AND GREEN GROWTH decent work. However, efforts toward envi-
Endemic poverty is a major challenge in Afri- ronmental sustainability and green growth
ca, particularly its impact on women (Zuma, have witnessed job creation. Globally, since
2013). The Millennium Development Goals the 2008 financial crisis, job growth in the
(MDGs) have been the most effective in- renewable energy sector has averaged 21%
strument to fight poverty, but the situation annually; at the end of 2010, this sector em-
remains critical in Sub-Saharan Africa. For ployed close to 5 million people (Ibid). Energy
“
example, of the 1.2 billion people reported efficiency is another key employment sector,
to be living below the poverty line (less than with ecosystems services also contributing
Green growth US$1.25 a day) in 2010, 48% were in Afri- substantially. In the European Union, an esti-
is viewed as a ca. The continued economic slowdown after mated 14.6 million jobs directly and indirectly
mechanism that the 2008 global financial crisis has meant protect biodiversity and restore habitats and
may address per- that people are still losing their jobs. Green forests. Africa tends to gain jobs in forest
ennial intergener- growth is viewed as a mechanism that may protection through Reducing Emission from
ational poverty. address perennial intergenerational poverty. Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus
In an assessment of Africa’s progress toward (REDD+) projects. Globally, an annual invest-
attaining the MDGs, the AfDB (2013c: xiii) ment of US$30 billion could yield close to
observed “a mixed pattern of success and 8 million jobs under REDD+. The ILO main-
failures, improvements and challenges, inno- tains that the potential for job loss due to
vations and obstacles.” The major challenges green growth has been exaggerated (Ibid); in
have been translating economic growth into fact, eight key sectors are being transformed
sustainable jobs, improving service delivery, through green growth—agriculture, forestry,
and reducing income, gender and spatial in- fishing, energy, resource-intensive manufac-
equalities. Figure 1 presents poverty levels in turing, recycling, building, and transport.
Africa relative to those of other continents.
Engel and Kammen (2009) maintain that the
Despite a decline, Africa’s poverty rates (ex- wind energy sector will create sustainable
cluding North Africa) remain high. In 1990, green jobs. Citing Boettcher et al., they sup-
an estimated 56.5% of the population lived port this contention with data for Germany,
6GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Spain and Denmark. In Germany, 22.3 giga- Sustainable infrastructure, efficient natural
watts (GW) of installed wind energy would resource management, and improved resil-
create 80,000 jobs in the value chain. For ience building were identified as quick-win
Spain, 14.7 GW of installed capacity of areas — that is, they offer opportunities for
wind energy would create 31,500 jobs; and initiatives that are relatively cheap and easy
for Denmark, 3.1 GW of installed capacity and that can be quickly implemented. Com-
of wind energy would create up to 21,600 mon themes for green growth mainstreaming
jobs. These figures are important for Africa’s into national development planning included:
green growth mainstreaming efforts, as they use of inter-ministerial mechanisms, SEA and
indicate the potential that lies in the wind environmental impact assessment, demon-
energy sector. stration projects to raise awareness, policy
sequencing and institutional mechanisms,
In a recent report on direct employment in education at primary level about the impor-
South Africa (IDC, DBSA and TIPS, 2011), tance of conserving natural capital, capacity
the Industrial Development Corporation, the development across ministries and organiza-
Development Bank of Southern Africa, and tions, and enhanced data collection (espe-
the Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies es- cially on natural capital).
timated the short-term (2011 to 2012), medi-
um-term (2013 to 2017) and long-term (2018 Although not explicitly addressing green
to 2025) potential for green jobs in the formal growth, a 2013 background document to
economy in four sectors: energy generation, the African Union Agenda 2063 calls for
energy and resource efficiency, emissions inclusive growth and sustainable develop-
and pollution mitigation, and natural resource ment (African Union, 2013) in the context of
management. An estimated 98,000 new jobs poverty that is “still rampant on the conti-
would be created in the short term; 255,000 nent” (ibid.: 19). Uganda’s Vision 2040 ex-
in the medium term; and 462,000 in the long presses the desire for green growth and a
term. clean environment in which ecosystems are
managed sustainably. The Rwanda 2013-
2018 Economic Development and Poverty
MAINSTREAMING GREEN GROWTH Reduction Strategy clearly mainstreams
INTO DEVELOPMENT PLANS green growth—one of the five priority are-
If the continent is to tackle poverty through as is a green growth approach to econom-
green growth, it must be mainstreamed into ic transformation (Rwanda Government,
development policy documents such as the 2013). The government views environmen-
African Union Agenda 2063, Regional Eco- tal mainstreaming as a base for promoting
nomic Community (REC) visions, national green growth and investment that may lead
visions, poverty reduction strategies, and to poverty eradication in Rwanda. A green
national development plans. Policies devel- growth approach is predicted to result in
oped before the 2008 financial crisis contain the development of sustainable cities and
virtually no green growth elements; but some villages and promote innovation in industry
policies formulated since then incorporate and the private sector.
elements of green growth.
Rwanda has pioneered climate-resilient
The AfDB and OECD (2013) identified a num- green growth (Climate and Knowledge De-
ber of enabling tools for mainstreaming green velopment Network – CDKN, 2013). The
growth — national and international policy ar- country’s Green Growth and Climate Resilient
chitecture, overseas development assistance Strategy resulted in the establishment of the
(ODA), technology transfer, research and de- Rwanda Fund for Environment and Climate
velopment, financing, and skills training that Change (FONERWA), which received €22.5
would result in employment in green jobs. million from the British International Climate
7GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Fund in June, 2013. This made FONERWA Strategy (CRGES) is directed toward sus-
the largest demand-based green climate tainable development (Federal Democratic
fund in Africa. FONERWA finances projects Republic of Ethiopia, 2012), targeting hydro-
in four areas: conservation and sustainable power and geothermal energy. In October
natural resource management; research and 2013, Ethiopia inaugurated the continent’s
development, technology transfer and imple- largest geothermal farm, which had attract-
mentation; environment and climate change ed US$4 billion from the American-Icelan-
mainstreaming; and environmental impact dic company Reykjavik Geothermal (Global
assessments. As well, 20% of the fund is Post, 2013). The farm will generate 1,000
reserved for the private sector, and 10%, for megawatts (MW) and is predicted to be the
local districts. The main challenge is limited single largest foreign direct investment in
capacity in evaluating bids and in project the country. After its completion in 2017, the
management, with which CDKN will assist 6,000-MW Grand Renaissance Dam on the
until 2015. The Green Growth and Climate Nile, which was developed in line with the
Resilient Strategy identified 14 Programs of government green growth transition policy,
Action and six quick-wins, among which are will be Africa’s largest artificial dam (Ibid).
geothermal energy reserves, soil manage- The US$179-million Ashegida Wind Farm in
ment, and climate-resilient roads infrastruc- Tigray State, commissioned in October 2013
ture and networks. (Smith, 2013), has a capacity of 120MW and
received funding from France. However, 700
South Africa is on the forefront of green farmers lost part or all their land, and al-
growth transition. In 2011, the country es- though they were financially compensated,
tablished the Green Fund amounting to it was not sufficient.
about US$800,000 (Nhamo, 2013). Other
funding mechanisms include a US$2.5 billon Mozambique regards green growth as a
loan facility from the Industrial Development means to achieve inter-generational equi-
Corporation. However, South Africa’s most ty (Rio Pavilion, 2012). During the Rio+20
commonly cited green growth initiatives Summit, President Armando Emilio Guebu-
pertain to energy — the Industrial Policy za, in launching the green growth roadm-
Action Plan calls for one million solar water ap, noted that green growth transition that
heaters to be installed in residential areas by takes into account the country’s rich natural
December 2014. In its economy modelling, capital will help Mozambique have an inclu-
South Africa focused four on sectors: natural sive middle-income by 2030. The program is
resources management, agriculture, trans- financed by the African Development Bank
port, and energy (UNEP, 2013b). A group of with technical support from the Worldwide
experts identified these sectors as having Fund for Nature. The green growth model
the potential for rapid and sizeable payoffs, is expected to promote sustainable green
particularly in terms of employment and re- jobs while conserving the environment. Three
lated spin-offs. interrelated focal areas were identified for
successful green growth transition: sustain-
Renewable energy — notably wind and ge- able infrastructure; sustainable and efficient
othermal is proving to be a growth area in use of natural capital; and the resilience and
Kenya (Ellis et al., 2013) and Ethiopia (Fed- adaptive capacity of livelihood. Table 2 sum-
eral Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 2012). marizes steps taken by selected countries in
A geothermal fund from the German Devel- green growth transition.
opment Bank (KfW), launched in 2012, pro-
vides €20 million to €50 million for feasibility With technical assistance from the AfDB
studies and exploration for projects in Ken- (AfDB, 2013a), Sierra Leone has planned its
ya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia. green growth transition. From 2013 to 2017,
Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy green growth mainstreaming will occur under
8GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Table 2: Green growth engagement processes from selected countries
Country Selected green growth engagement landmarks
Sierra Leone • 2012: AfDB Technical Assistance for green growth transition
• 2013: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP 3) (2013-17), commonly known as the
Agenda for Prosperity (A4P), which is consistent with a green growth approach
• 2013: Publication on Green Growth Sierra Leone: Transitioning towards green growth
– Stocktaking and the way forward
• 2013: Green growth mainstreaming agenda defined to 2017 under the A4P
South Africa • 2007: Long-Term Mitigation Scenario
• 2009: US$7.5 billion stimulus package launched (11% allocated to environment-
related areas such as railways, energy-efficient buildings, water, and waste
management)
• 2010: National Green Economy Summit
• 2010: Industrial Action Plan 2 (IPAP 2) proposed installation of one million solar water
heaters across the country
• 2011: Hosted UNFCCC COP17 in Durban
• 2011: Green Economy Accord (300,000 new green jobs by 2020)
• 2012: New Growth Path
• 2012: National Development Plan-Vision 2030 (Chapter 5 dedicated to Low-Carbon
Development)
• 2013: Proposed carbon tax by 2015
• 2013: South Africa Green Economy Model (SAGEM) – prioritizing natural resource
management, agriculture, transport and energy sectors
• 2014: Ongoing work on Long-Term Adaptation Strategy
• 2014: Ongoing work on policy and strategy framework for green economy in context
of sustainable development
Mozambique • 2011: Roadmap for a Green Economy – GER (with development partners including
AfDB)
• 2012: Inter-ministerial Steering Group established under GER and comprising MICOA,
MPD, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation and CONDES
2012: Technical training of members of Steering Group
• 2012: Regional Consultations of GER
• 2012: Launch of Roadmap for a Green Economy during Rio+20 Summit
• 2013: Green Economy Action Plan (three pillars identified 15 subsectors1)
• 2014: Work toward full integration of Green Economy Action Plan into Five-Year
National Development Plan (2015-2019)
Source: Author
the Agenda for Prosperity (A4P2), which iden- governance and public sector reform, and
tifies eight priority areas: economic diver- gender. The government sees opportunities
sification, natural resource management, arising through sustainable management of
accelerating the MDGs for human develop- both renewable and non-renewable natural
ment, international competitiveness, employ- capital. Green growth is an opportunity to
ment and labour strategy, social protection, gain international recognition and a more
efficient and competitive economic base
that will create sustainable jobs and attract
1 Natural capital, tenure, consultation, agriculture, development finance, even from the private
fisheries, forests, water, energy, cities, green
technology, climate resilience, human capital, sector. The enabling conditions for the imple-
extractives, economic resilience and equity, and mentation of the A4P, as well as for the green
catalytic funds (cross-cutting). growth agenda, are political leadership, ad-
2 A4P is the popular term for Sierra Leone’s Poverty
equate policies and incentives, governance
Reduction Strategy. and capacity, national budget, information
9GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
and analytical tools, a role for the private tional general environmental and governance
sector, development partner support, and legislative frameworks. Specifically, a country
communications. These constitute a basis for should have functional policies on environ-
creation of monitoring and evaluation tools, ment, water, forestry, disaster risk reduction,
such as a national Green Growth Index (GGI). poverty reduction, sustainable development,
and waste management. As well, environ-
mental rights should be embedded in con-
GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY stitutions and/or major environment-relat-
REDUCTION: RISKS AND ed policies. At higher-order levels of green
OPPORTUNITIES growth readiness, countries have formulat-
Green growth poses potential risks to trade ed policies that address issues such as low
(UNCSD, 2011). The African Union empha- carbon development, climate change, and
sizes that green growth “should not be used pure green growth. UNECA (2012b: 11) has
as a trade barrier or to impose conditions noted the limited first-order readiness in West
on developing countries; neither should it be Africa: “... a review of domestic sustainable
used by developed countries as a pretext for development reveals that up to now, most
not fulfilling their pledges and commitments West African countries have yet to devise
to developing countries” (Keane, 2011: 6). In their National Strategy for Sustainable Devel-
a report in preparation for the Rio+20 Sum- opment.” Further, UNECA observes that poor
mit, the African Ministerial Conference on governance, political instability and conflict
the Environment (AMCEN) was frank about have led to the displacement of people and
trade barriers associated with green growth the destruction of socio-economic ties and
— trade “... should not unduly distort markets resources needed for green growth transition.
and competition. Specifically, environmental Lack of coordination between Regional Eco-
concerns should not be used as a pretext for nomic Communities (RECs) and their mem-
trade protection” (AMCEN, 2011: 7). Howev- ber states is yet another challenge for green
er, the global transition to green growth has growth; in most cases, countries act ahead
created non-tariff barriers that the continent of their RECs (UNECA, 2012b).
cannot avoid, such as the need to reduce the
carbon footprint of products and services. For The OECD (2013) identifies five challenges
instance, the South African fruit industry must associated with green growth transition in
now export wine in bulk as identified earlier. developing countries, particularly, those in
Africa (Box 1).
Nhamo’s (2013: 128) conceptual framework
for assessing green growth readiness is use- Although the renewable energy sector of-
ful when debating risks associated with green fers large and relatively quick returns from
growth transition in Africa. The framework green growth, developing wind farms, solar
identifies six interlinked readiness conditions: parks, geothermal farms and hydro plants
high-level political commitment and champi- displaces the local population. The results
oning; institutional set-up and capacity de- can be devastating, with some individuals’
velopment; finance; green growth policy in- livelihoods completely destroyed. Govern-
cubation (including legislation development); ment-forced relocation and compensation
research and development, technology and are always contested — people either do
innovation, and intellectual property rights; not wish to be relocated, or compensation
and programs and projects (design, imple- is insufficient. For instance, The Guardian
mentation, monitoring and evaluation). (2013) reported that communities displaced
by 1950s and 1960s mega hydropower pro-
Green growth readiness may be lower-order jects such as Kariba, Akosombo and Inga
or higher-order (Nhamo, 2013). Lower-order dams are still fighting for compensation and
readiness pertains to the presence of func- economic rehabilitation today.
10GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Box 1
Special challenges for green growth in developing countries:
1. A large informal economy that accounts for up to 75% of non‑agricultural jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
This complicates implementation of the economic, fiscal and regulatory policy instruments needed for
green growth.
2. High levels of poverty and inequality. Targeted policies to avoid negative effects on the poorest are
required, but capacities for designing and financing such policies are limited.
3. Weak capacity and resources (public and private) for innovation and investment limit developing
countries’ ability to find and exploit opportunities that emerge from a green growth agenda.
4. An urgent need for rapid development, economic growth and welfare improvement. In lower-income
countries, where natural assets are frequently abundant, the welfare benefits from transitioning to green
growth are not as evident as those from conventional economic development, particularly in the short
term.
5. Few mechanisms to ensure that those who protect natural assets (such as forest land for carbon
sequestration) receive large enough financial incentives to maintain them. Without strong incentives, the
political viability of green growth will be weakened.
Source: OECD (2013: 8)
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and US$50.17 in 2008, but by December 2013
Forest Degradation Plus (REDD+) is one of had fallen to less than US$1 (Business Daily,
the green growth mechanisms in Africa. FERN 2013). The drop in carbon prices and disputes
(2013) recognizes more advances in REDD+ about the single global climate change treaty
implementation in the DRC than in any other present a risk to using the carbon market to
Congo Basin nation, but it also raises con- aid green growth transition in Africa. Given
cerns. Projects are propelled forward with that a considerable amount of land is cur-
limited readiness, especially at the grassroots rently reserved for REDD+ projects, the fate
level. Many donors fail to acknowledge prob- of such land is uncertain if its use value con-
lems and portray the REDD+ in the DRC as a tinues to fall in line with the carbon market.
huge success. FERN observed that the mid-
term review of the 2010 DRC’s Readiness Kastrinos (1995) argued that environmental
Preparation Proposal (R-PP) found many regulation under green growth brings more
gaps and weaknesses, yet the World Bank opportunities than risks. Based on 1992 fig-
and partners pushed the country to the invest- ures, he predicted a jump in the global en-
ment and implementation phase. Among the vironmental market from US$210 billion to
key concerns was the lack of inclusiveness US$570 billion in 2010. This growth was es-
in the consultations. Fairhead et al. (2012) timated for the air pollution control and mon-
examined the problem of land grabbing in itoring and waste management and waste-
green growth transition. Karumbidza and water treatment sectors. The AfDB (2012)
Menne (2010) reported that massive tracks advises that Africa move beyond hardware
of land were being taken up in the DRC for financing on technology transfer and start to
REDD+ and biofuels farming purposes. Other evaluate needs and appropriate and cost-ef-
countries on the radar of foreign investors fective technologies.
include Tanzania, Madagascar, and Zambia.
Green growth transition can give urgency
The carbon market is another area that in- to finalizing older renewable energy plans.
volves green growth. The market, created For instance, completion of the Southern
through the three mechanisms in the 1997 African Power Pool depends on installation
Kyoto Protocol, has been turbulent since the of infrastructure along the Inga River in the
global financial crisis. A tonne of CO2 sold at DRC. The Batoka Gorge hydropower on the
11GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Zambezi River between Zambia and Zimba- relevant to the African green growth tran-
bwe is another example. In addition, the high sition. To enhance trade in environmental
carbon footprint of African products that are goods and services, the UNEP specifies a
processed mainly from coal-fired electrici- range of enabling conditions: investment and
ty and diesel-powered generators could be spending, market-based instruments, nation-
mitigated by “greening” national electricity al regulatory frameworks, and international
grids toward renewable energy (wind, hydro, frameworks, all supported by dialogue and
geothermal and solar). capacity development (ibid.).
In a study of green growth opportunities and
requirements in Egypt, Ellis (2012: 4) identi- POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
fied three broad sectors: renewable energy Need to enhance green growth readiness:
generation and applications, the construction Only a few African countries are relatively
industry, and the agricultural waste sector. prepared to undertake the green growth tran-
She describes green growth opportunities sition agenda, based on the framework spec-
as those that achieve ifying six green growth readiness parameters:
high-level political commitment and cham-
the triple goals of (i) economic growth, (ii) pioning; institutional capacity development;
social inclusivity, and (iii) environmental finance; green growth policy incubation and
sustainability. The social dimension is reform; research and development, technol-
addressed by prioritizing these oppor- ogy and innovation, and intellectual proper-
tunities in terms of their potential to gen- ty rights; and programs and projects. Sub-
erate jobs, thus allowing the benefits of stantial commitment and financial resources
these new opportunities to be shared in are needed at both the continent-wide and
a socially inclusive manner. national levels to prepare governments for
green growth transition.
For the renewable energy generation and ap-
plications sector, the potential for wind and Mainstreaming green growth in develop-
solar power was discussed; for solar specif- ment policies: The continent must main-
ically, photovoltaic, solar water heating, and stream green growth into development pol-
concentrated solar power. icies such as African Union Agenda 2063
(currently under preparation), Regional Eco-
The UNEP (2013c) addresses the issues of nomic Commissions visions, poverty reduc-
green growth and trade. The organization tion strategies, national visions, and national
regards greening trade not only as an op- development plans. If the continent is to re-
portunity, but an imperative. main on a sustainable growth and develop-
ment path, there is no alternative.
If we are to reverse the global decline
of biodiversity, mitigate the release of Prioritizing agriculture: Given the predom-
greenhouse gases, halt the degradation inance of agriculture in African economies,
of lands, and protect our oceans, then green growth must make it a priority. New
international trade must become sustain- agro-ecological maps must be developed to
able and responsible. Further, if we are inform policy and green growth.
to succeed in eradicating poverty, we will
need to ensure that trade benefits the Avoiding green growth as a non-tariff bar-
poor (UNEP, c v). rier: Although green growth is a welcome initi-
ative, Africa must work on competitiveness is-
The UNEP document on green economy and sues. If green growth brings non-tariff barriers
trade identifies agriculture, fisheries, manu- associated with carbon border adjustments,
facturing, renewable energy and tourism as the continent might find it unpalatable.
12GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
Dealing with increasing natural disasters: Green Growth Index (GGI): An indicator is
The need to address climate change is at needed to measure, report and verify green
the heart of green growth in Africa. Lobby- growth progress. To this end, an Africa-wide
ing should continue to convince top global GGI is proposed. Details will be considered
emitters and developed economies to reduce once the concept is approved by relevant
their emissions to achieve a range within 2˚C stakeholders.
of pre-industrial levels and to honor the annu-
al US$100-billion Green Climate Fund pledg- Enhancing trade in green goods and ser-
es. As well, the loss and damage mechanism vices: The market for environmental goods
under the UNFCCC adaptation work program and services is growing, driven mainly by a
must be refined so that affected countries are new generation of consumers, particularly
adequately compensated. in Europe and other developed regions. This
gives Africa yet another reason to undertake
Financing: All available financing for green green growth. Because the risks of carbon
growth should be mobilized, especially domes- emissions are increasing, and with the single
tic sources. Models like Rwanda’s FONERWA, climate treaty in sight for 2020, African gov-
South Africa’s Green Fund, and Ethiopian re- ernments should work to incorporate more
newable energy FDI determinants are viable renewable energy in their national electricity
starting points. With green growth funds being grids. This will lower the emissions factors,
sought worldwide, to be competitive, Africa which are a key parameter in the calculation
must have workable mechanisms in place. This of products’ carbon footprints.
does not, however, obviate the need for due
diligence in underwriting contracts. Dealing with green/clean technology
dumping potential through procurement:
Avoiding one-size-fits-all approach: Differ- Given the low levels of research and develop-
ent countries are at different stages of green ment in Africa, most green technology will be
growth transition, and their policies and paths imported. There is a chance that developed re-
differ in terms of detail. This is as it should be, gions will dump entry-level green/clean tech-
because a one-size-fits-all approach will not nologies in Africa, offered at favorable prices
work. African countries have diverse resource and as part of aid and trade packages. As
endowments and each country must prioritize a result, Africa would benefit only minimally
quick-win sectors. At the national level, coun- from green growth transition, particularly in
tries must tailor the global green growth agen- lowering the carbon footprint of products.
da to their unique domestic situation. Small
island nations, for example, have identified
small-scale fisheries and aquaculture, tourism, CONCLUSION
water, energy and waste as impact sectors for Because green growth is a relatively new
green growth transition. concept, controversy remains about what
it really means. However, the literature pub-
Better institutional coordination: The na- lished since 2008 has helped clarify some
ture of green growth requires the involvement concepts, so understanding of the major
of every line ministry. However, “fights” for building blocks of green growth is relatively
green growth portfolio control, in order to good. Africa has some of the world’s poorest
access resources, are common in African countries, so any (green) growth opportunity
countries. Each country must identify what is welcome, provided it is inclusive and incor-
form of green growth co-ordination is best porates equity elements. Given that Africa is
in its particular case. A model that devolves an agro-based economy, considerations of
responsibility to every line ministry seems to green growth for poverty eradication should
work, although the question of resources has address this sector, particularly with regard
to be addressed at another level. to employment. Green growth impact sectors
13GREEN GROWTH AND POVERTY ALLEVIATION: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICA
include agriculture, mining, renewable en- include: the need to address green growth
ergy, low-carbon transportation, natural re- readiness; mainstreaming green growth into
sources management, and climate-resilient development policies; avoiding a one-size-
infrastructure and cities. A smooth green fits-all approach; and prioritization of quick-
growth transition cannot be achieved with win sectors. While Africa has adequate
a one-size-fits-all approach. Resources that natural resources and consumers for green
will ensure green growth readiness need to growth, this is not true for talent, capital and
be allocated mainly from national coffers. innovation, which remain the key challenges
This paper presents critical policy issues that for green growth transition.
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1516
CROISSANCE VERTE ET ALLÈGEMENT DE LA PAUVRETÉ : RISQUES ET OPPORTUNITÉS POUR L’AFRIQUE
Croissance verte et allègement de
la pauvreté : risques et opportunités
pour l’Afrique
RÉSUMÉ renouvelé pour cette thématique, les diri-
Les gouvernements africains sont détermi- geants mondiaux ayant décidé de relever des
nés à réduire au minimum les risques liés à défis environnementaux de longue date tels
la croissance verte et d’optimiser les oppor- que l’alimentation et l’énergie, parallèlement à
“
tunités offertes par ce modèle de croissance. la recherche de solutions permettant de sur-
La croissance verte est une rupture avec le monter la récession. L’Afrique a été désignée
modèle de croissance à forte intensité de res- comme la nouvelle frontière de la croissance La transition
sources qui a longtemps prévalu par le passé, mondiale (Accenture, 2010), mais il faut faire vers la crois-
et qui a entraîné la diminution des ressources preuve de prudence et de diligence raison- sance verte sur
en général et des resssources naturelles en nable lors de la prise d’initiatives en faveur le continent
particulier. Les principaux risques examinés de la croissance verte, surtout celles qui sont africain doit tenir
dans le présent document sont : les faibles alignées sur des intérêts extérieurs. La transi- compte de cinq
niveaux de préparation à la croissance verte ; tion vers la croissance verte sur le continent dimensions : les
l’éventualité d’un dumping des technologies africain doit tenir compte de cinq dimensions : consommateurs,
propres élémentaires ; et les échanges assor- les consommateurs, les ressources, le talent, les ressources, le
tis de conditions dans le cadre de la crois- le capital et l’innovation (ibid.). La Banque talent, le capital
sance verte. Au nombre des opportunités africaine de développement – BAD – (2013a) et l’innovation.
figurent l’exécution de mégaprojets portant reconnaît que, pour être viable, le programme
sur les énergies renouvelables anciennes et la de développement doit s’écarter du scénario
possibilité de mettre sur pied des infrastruc- du maintien du statu quo. Autrement dit, il
tures et des établissements à l’épreuve du n’existe pas d’alternative à la croissance verte.
climat. Le document examine également des Du point de vue de la Banque, la croissance
initiatives stratégiques telles que les para- verte signifie qu’il faut prendre des mesures
mètres de l’état de préparation ; l’intégration aujourd’hui pour éviter de subir des pertes et
de la croissance verte ; le fait d’éviter une d’encourir des coûts dans un futur proche.
approche unique ; l’affectation de la priorité
à des projets d’envergure à impact rapide ; Les coûts futurs peuvent augmenter : i) si
une meilleure coordination institutionnelle ; l’on n’investit pas à temps dans l’éduca-
et la mise au point d’un indice de croissance tion ; ii) du fait de la dégradation continue
verte (ICV) aux fins de suivi et d’évaluation. des ressources naturelles ; et iii) si les
établissements urbains s’étendent à des
Mots clés : croissance verte, réduction de zones vulnérables aux inondations ou à
la pauvreté, Afrique, risques, opportunités l’érosion, dotées d’infrastructures qui ne
sont pas suffisamment résilientes (BAD,
2013a : 32).
INTRODUCTION
La croissance verte n’est pas un phénomène Les dirigeants africains ont accepté de
nouveau (Savaresi, 2012). Cependant, la crise s’écarter du modèle de développement
financière de 2008 a suscité un engouement classique. Dans son propos liminaire tenu en
17CROISSANCE VERTE ET ALLÈGEMENT DE LA PAUVRETÉ : RISQUES ET OPPORTUNITÉS POUR L’AFRIQUE
2010 à l’occasion du Sommet sur la crois- CROISSANCE VERTE : DÉBATS EN
sance verte en Afrique du Sud, le président COURS ET COMPRÉHENSION
Zuma a déclaré : “Nous n’avons guère d’autre Bowen et Fankhauser (2011) font remarquer
choix que de gérer nos ressources naturelles que la “croissance verte” est devenue un
de manière durable. […] Nous n’avons pas terme à la mode et un slogan dans les po-
“
d’autre choix que de développer une éco- litiques et les communautés académiques.
nomie verte” (Zuma, 2010 : 4 ; traduction). De même, Schmalensee (2012) relève que
La croissance L’abandon de l’approche traditionnelle est si des slogans magnifiques ne se traduisent
verte offre une important que la Stratégie décennale de la pas forcément en actions exceptionnelles
occasion de BAD 2013-2022 contient deux objectifs fon- – ni même en des actes dignes d’intérêt.
concevoir les dés sur la croissance inclusive et la transition En effet, cela ne s’explique pas uniquement
infrastructures et vers la croissance verte. La croissance verte par le fait que la croissance verte n’a pas
de gérer les es- offre une occasion de concevoir les infrastruc- de définition communément acceptée ; plu-
paces urbains et tures et de gérer les espaces urbains et le tôt, des groupes différents emploient cette
le capital naturel capital naturel d’une manière qui ne porte pas terminologie pour signifier ou dire implici-
d’une manière atteinte à l’environnement du continent ni à tement des choses différentes (ibid. : S2).
qui ne porte pas sa base économique (BAD, 2013a). Rester La croissance verte a été associée à la du-
atteinte à l’en- sur le sentier de la croissance à forte inten- rabilité environnementale, à la croissance
vironnement du sité de ressources emprunté par d’autres ré- et au développement à faible intensité de
continent ni à gions du monde pourrait entraîner un déficit carbone et à l’épreuve du climat, ainsi qu’à
sa base écono- de biocapacité et une panoplie de problèmes une nouvelle dynamique en faveur du déve-
mique. liés à la dégradation de l’environnement. En loppement économique. Qu’entend-on donc
revanche, la croissance verte offre à l’Afrique par croissance verte ? Le tableau 1 résume
une opportunité d’emprunter des chemins de certaines de ses définitions.
croissance économes en ressources, grâce à
l’utilisation de technologies éprouvées offrant L’Organisation pour la coopération et le dé-
un bon rapport coût-efficacité. veloppement économiques (OCDE) a été le
fer de lance du programme de croissance
Si elle présente des opportunités énormes, verte depuis 2008. Du point de vue de cette
la croissance verte n’est pas dénuée de tout Organisation, les gouvernements qui placent
risque pour les économies africaines.Voici la croissance verte au cœur du développe-
deux exemples : 1) la transition forcée de ment peuvent parvenir à un développement
l’exportation du vin en bouteille à l’exporta- économique durable et à la stabilité sociale,
tion de gros barils de vin en Afrique du Sud sauvegarder l’environnement et préserver
(Ntombela, 2013) a entraîné des pertes d’em- les ressources pour les générations futures
plois ; 2) la saga des kilomètres alimentaires, (OCDE, 2013 : 2). Une telle réconciliation du
qui a vu l’industrie horticole de la Commu- développement économique et de la durabi-
nauté de l’Afrique de l’Est (EAC) déverser lité environnementale évite la dégradation du
des fleurs de la moitié à la fin de la décen- capital naturel et le changement climatique,
nie 2000 (Garside et al., 2008). Cependant, tout en favorisant la sécurité sociale, toutes
le coût de l’inaction est élevé en Afrique, choses essentielles pour l’Afrique. La Banque
où les secteurs centrés sur les ressources mondiale (2012 : 1) décrit les modèles de
– agriculture, exploitation minière, forêt et croissance actuels comme étant non seule-
pêche (CEA, 2012a) – restent les principaux ment peu durables, mais aussi “foncièrement
pourvoyeurs d’emplois. La croissance verte inefficaces”.
devrait “maintenir et renforcer le capital na-
turel qui constituera une importante source Les débats autour de la croissance verte sont
d’emplois, de revenus et de moyens de inévitablement centrés sur la dégradation du
subsistance pour l’écrasante majorité des capital naturel et le changement climatique.
populations africaines” (ibid. : 3). Le rapport du Programme des Nations Unies
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