"Photovoltaics: Current Trends & Vision to 2030" - ICTP
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The Abdus Saiam
International Centre for Theoretical Physics
g>
ICTP Experts Meeting on "Science & Renewable Energy"
January 15 - 18, 2007
Venue: ICTP Adriatico Guest House - Lundqvist Lecture Hall
310/1905
"Photovoltaics:
Current Trends & Vision to 2030"
F. Ferrazza
EniTechnologies Spa
Rome, Italy
Stratfa Ctxiiera It. 34011 Trieste. Italy - Tel. +3* 040 2240 I I I; Fax +39 040 214 l63-scMnlo@ittp.ii.www.icrp.it
Photovoltaics:
current trends and vision to 2030
F.Ferrazza
Eni S.p.A., P.le E. Mattei I, Italy
francesca.ferrazza@eni.it
Module worldwide production
• Resto del Mondo •Europa BGiappone • Stali Uniti nTotale
CAGR 2000-2004: > 40%
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
Resto del Mondo 5 4 6 6 10 c 19 21 23 33 56 84 139 150
Europa 10 13 16 17 22 20 19 30 34 40 61 86 135 193 314 350
Giappone 17 20 19 17 17 16 21 35 49 80 129 171 251 364 602 800
Stati Uniti 15 17 18 22 26 35 39 51 54 61 75 100 121 103 139 150
Totale 47 55 58 60 69 78 89 126 155 201 288 390 562 744 1194 1450
Crescita annua (%) 19 4 15 12 14 42 23 30 43 36 44 32 60 21
Fonte: EU COMMISSION PV STATUS REPORT2005
Cumulative installed power
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: IEA REPORT PVPS t1-14 2005
Top Players
Altri operatori
Mitsubishi
Gruppo attivo nel settore: Societa specializzata
elettronica nel fotovoltaico
__ Oil&Gas * Nel 2006 Shell Solar ha venduto gran
vetro parte dei suoi impianti a SolarWorld
(Germania, specializzata nel fotovoltaico)
Energy pay-back time can be less than two years
Localita Parametro Tetto Facciata
(inclinato) (verticale)
Roma Produzione annua, kWh 1.300 860
EPBT,mesi 23 35
(1.552 kWh/m2/anno) Fattore di ritorno 14 9
energetico
Milano Produzione annua, kWh 1.000 680
EPBT, mesi 30 44
(1.251 kWh/m2/anno) Fattore di ritorno 11 7
energetico
Energy Pay-Back Time of PV systems
(grid-connected, roof-top PV system:
irradiation 1700 kWh/niZyr)
3
I
1
Solar is a minor player in the global energy sector
Gas Altre
21.2% 0.5% Maree 0.0005%
N ucleare ] | Eolico 0.051%
6.5% Idroeletrico2.2% Solare 0.039%
Biomassa
Petrolio Rinnovabili combustibile
34.4% Geotermico
e rifiuti 0.416%
10.6%
Carbone
24.4%
Market is strongly regional-based
2003 2004 2005
• Germani a Resto d'Europa • Giappone • USA Resto del Mondo
Solar in general is more expensive than conventional fossil
fuel based electricity
prezzo al
8-20 consumo nei
paesi OCSE
Fonti Fotovoltaico Solare
convenzionali termodinamicoLocation-dependent generation costs
Flusso di energia radiante
incidente
in un anno
(kWh/m 2 )
I TOO
HO
!12001
Produzione:
kWh anno /kW
Costo: €c/kWhPrice Learning curve
100
0)
o
O
10
Q.
20% price decrease
by doubling
cumulative volume
until 2003
0,1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
MWp accumulated
source EPIA websiteEvoluzione del Mercato FV
900
Costo Elettricità per l'Utenza finale
Costo Generazione di Potenza
y—y—y IT!
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: G. Agostinelli, M. Acciarri, F Ferrazza, Le Scienze, May 06
11
El
•ill Eni •s WayMarket by technology
source JRC PV Status report 2005,
Photon International..
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cz-Si mc-Si • Si-Ribbon a-Si CdTe CISC-Si share of the PV market
Solar Technologies
by materials
Si Wafers
MODULES SYSTEMS
Si
SILICON ribbons
CELL/MODULE
Si FABRICATION
Thin Films
T H I N FILM CELL/MODULE
(CdTe. CIS) FABRICATION
Systems
I I I - V Compounds CELL ODULES
(GaAs. InP, InGaN.
etc)
NON
SILICON
DEPOSIITON/FO
RMATION
TECHNIQUES
TECNOLOSy BASEDOld days... source EniTecnologie
5 MW/yr - 1990 (Eurosolare, Nettuno) source EniTecnologie
, « . H source Q-Cells website
50MW/yr, 2005 source Q-Cells website
I t\tt • String Ribbon manufacturing - source Evergreen website
Long-term outlook
Indicative figures what could
200,000
be the demand for Si by 2020:
PVS gxnith scenario 27%
PVSgx3wthscenario15%
150,000 rejected
excess capacity eg-Si
• growth to 45 GWp;
dedicated non-prime
100,000
• c-Si 70% of PV production;
50,000
• Si consumption 5 g/Wp or
1995 2000 2005
year
2010 2015 2020
less;
Si demand ~105 tons/aSilicon price strongly affects cell costs
Cost of silicon
1,20
1,00
11,5 T/MW
0,80
10,5
0,60 7
5
I 0,40 03
0,20
0,00
10 100
feedstock price €/kgSilicon feedstock production chain
Quarzite Chemical SiCl4 SiHCl3 Thermal
Purification
MG-Si Reaction SiHCl3 Decomposition
Conversion
Coke HCI SiH2Cl2 SiH4 CVDSOLSILC process
Carbon removal/solidification
Si (liquid)
precipitate
purge
decant Directional
Solidification (DS)
ISilicon Feedstock Demand
35'000
30'000
30'000
Shortage! 25'000
25'000 22'000
^ 20'000 17'000
£ 14'
15'000
10'416
10'000
5'000
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Fonte: Workshop EPIA 22nd of DecemberPrice learning curve
10 0
History
10 Forecast
20% price decrease
by doubling
cumulative volume
EPIA Price Scenario until 2003
0,1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
MWp accumulated
E experience f actor"
I 15%
f I
18%
1,1 GWp/a 3,3 GWp/a 31 GWp/a 300 GWp/a
2004 2010 2020 2030
0
10 100 1000 10000
source EPIA website GWp accumulatedDiscrete and fragile, source EPIA website
relatively low efficiency source EPIA website
The challenges hoto oltaic
1000 GWp globally
200 GWp in EU (200,000 jobs)
BOS = Bal a nce-Of-System
A Vision far
typical 4- Photovoltaic
Technology
turn-key 3
system
price 2
(€/Wp) -i
0
2004 2010 2020 2OJ0 2050
year
competing
f
competing
consumer & peak prices wholesale prices
source W. Sinke, PV
Platform GApossible evolution of module
H price & performance
tf-Si = thin-film silicon
CIGSS = copper-
indium/gallium-
selenium/sulfur
c-Si = wafer-type
crystalline silicon
OSC = "organic" solar
cells
new concepts =
advanced versions of
existing technologies
& new conversion
principles
(free after
W. Hoffmann)
10 15 20 25
module efficiencTecnology eviution map
' m u It ij unctionfconcentiatoi
cells
•wafer crystalline Si cells
•thin-film CIGS cells
thin-film CdTe cells
•thin-film amorphous Si
cells
•wafer crystalline Si
modules
GIGS modules
amorphous Si modules
•dye-sensitized cells
(typical)
year organic cells (typical)
source G. Agostinelli,
Imec, Crystal Clear ,..Progress of the overall PV sector
Some important research issues are shared
> efficiency, stability and lifetime
> materials use (quality & quantity)
> high-throughput manufacturing
> in-process monitoring & control
> environmental sustainability
source W. Sinke, WG3
PV PlatformEfficiency is an important driver
Cost reductions + increased efficiency + higher productivity + lower EPBT +.
direct costs
2,5
2
1,5 module
cel
1 wafer
0,5
0
2005 2013 2020 2030> Wafer-based crystalline silicon
high efficiency
low overall silicon consumption
feedstock quality / cost optimum
low-cost encapsulation materials and
module concepts
source W. Sinke, WG3
PV PlatformSilicon consumption reduction as a first measure for cost reduction
Thin! Thin RGS ribbon - source ECN website
Thin and efficient!
Highly diiciwYl TjaLi cell an
thin aid UraiUe wafer (dD \im\. The cdh
producrd whh LK
source FHG-ISE
websiteNew thin film manufacturing facility - silicon on glass
Csg solar, GermanyConcentrators - new initiatives
solar radiation
lens F
solar cell F
heat transport Concentrix Solar GmbH (D)
www.concentrix-solar.deHigh efficiency multijunction cells for space applications Spectrolab's record cells > 4 0 % efficient!
The Silicon shortage has - contributed to bump in price learning curve But has also - allowed faster reduction of silicon specific consumption - induced faster progress in automation - opened a window of opportunities for other technolgies: • Thin Films-ALL • Concentrators • Organic Many initiatives under way. Thin film production may be as high as 1 GW in 2010
Technology mix in time - evolutionary scenario
100%
90% - -
80%
70%
60%
• New Concepts
50% • Thin Film
• c-Si
4 0%
30%
2 0%
10%
0%
2006 2010 2020 2030
yea rConclusions - 1 Progress in silicon wafer-based technology with time has determined the price- learning curve of PV modules that shows a decrease of about 20% for each doubling of capacity. This progress has two driving forces: market size and technological improvement. This did not happen by chance but is the result of the combination of market assisting measures and research, development and demonstration activities with both private and public support. Crystalline silicon based technology has the capability to continue following the established price experience curve, with direct production costs expected to achieve significant reduction to around 1.00 €/W in 2013 and 0,75 €/W in 2020 and even lower in the long term. This will happen if R&D effort is directed to address the most critical issues and the technology areas most likely to allow a continued progress of PV towards full sustainability.
Conclusions - 2 In the long term, it is expected that silicon technology will still play an important role in the PV sector, although there is uncertainty regarding the precise module efficiency, the silicon consumption, the cell and module architecture and component materials after 2020, when the market size is expected to be around 30 GW/year. It is likely that silicon technology by this time will have incorporated aspects which are now related to novel or emerging technologies, and that new materials will also be included in the processing sequences. In the long run, true distinctions between wafer and thin film technologies and between cells and modules may no longer be appropriate. In the long term, it is expected that module efficiency will exceed the current laboratory record. This may only be possible by incorporating technologies at the periphery of the device such as up or down converters. For this reason, basic and applied research on advanced concepts and materials should be included in crystalline silicon projects.
•
hotovoltciic
TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
www.eupvplatform.org
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