Printing and Publishing - Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences and economic activities in the European Union - Bollettino Adapt
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Printing and Publishing
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences
and economic activities in the European Union
European Commission
Submitted to the European Commission, DG Employment, Social Affairs
and Equal Opportunities
Executed by:
TNO Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research
SEOR Erasmus University Rotterdam
ZSI Centre for Social Innovation
DG EMPL project VC/2007/0866
Printing and Publishing
This report is published as part of a series of forward-looking sector studies on New Skills and New
Jobs in the frame of the project Comprehensive Sectoral Analysis of Emerging Competences and
Economic Activities in the European Union.
This publication is commissioned under the European Community Programme for Employment and
Social Solidarity - PROGRESS (2007-2013).
This programme is managed by the Directorate-General for Employment, social affairs and equal op-
portunities of the European Commission. It was established to financially support the implementa-
tion of the objectives of the European Union in the employment and social affairs area, as set out in
the Social Agenda, and thereby contribute to the achievement of the Lisbon Strategy goals in these
fields.
The seven-year Programme targets all stakeholders who can help shape the development of appro-
priate and effective employment and social legislation and policies, across the EU-27, EFTA-EEA and
EU candidate and pre-candidate countries.
PROGRESS mission is to strengthen the EU contribution in support of Member States’ commitment.
PROGRESS will be instrumental in:
1. providing analysis and policy advice on PROGRESS policy areas;
2. monitoring and reporting on the implementation of EU legislation and policies in PROGRESS
policy areas;
3. promoting policy transfer, learning and support among Member States on EU objectives and
priorities; and
4. relaying the views of the stakeholders and society at large
For more information see:
http://ec.europa.eu/employment_social/progress/index_en.html
The information contained in this publication does not necessarily reflect the position or opinion
of the European Commission.
European Commission
Printing and Publishing
Comprehensive sectoral analysis of emerging competences
and economic activities in the European Union
Executive Summary
The full study is available under the link
http://ec.europa.eu/restructuringandjobs
European Commission
Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities
Unit F3
Manuscript completed in 2009Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission may be held
responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this publication.
© 123rf
For any use or reproduction of photos which are not under European Communities
copyright, permission must be sought directly from the copyright holder(s).
More information on the European Union is available on the Internet. (http://europa.eu).
Europe Direct is a service to help you
find answers to your questions about
the European Union
Freephone number (*):
00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11
(*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access
to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed.
© European Communities, 2009
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.Preface
Education and needs of society and the economy,
training, in the as a means to increased competi-
context of a life- tiveness and growth, as well as to
long learning greater social cohesion, in Europe.
perspective, are
an indispensable This is more important than ever in
means for pro- the current situation of crisis that
moting adaptability and employabi will undoubtedly lead to substan-
lity, active citizenship, personal and tial changes in economic activities
professional fulfilment. in Europe coming years.
Investment in human capital With this in mind, the Commission
through better education, and the has elaborated a set of analysis of
development of skills and com- emerging competences in 18 sec-
petences should be increased. It tors. Those analysis are available
is important to anticipate skills to all economic, social and profes-
needs — and also skills gaps — sional organisations, educations
which are emerging in the Europe- and training institutions, etc. They
an labour market, as well as to im- can help them to refine their strat-
prove the matching of knowledge, egies and to engage into forward-
skills and competences with the looking actions.
Robert Verrue
Director-General, Employment,
Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities DG
3Printing and Publishing Aims and methodology The renewed Lisbon strategy and by a number of other initiatives over European Employment strategy the oncoming year and beyond. The stress the need for Europe to place current economic crisis calls for the more emphasis on a better antici- reinforcement of policies aimed at pation of skill needs together with developing the employability of the the need to reduce labour markets workforce. This project fits within mismatches. These policies aims this policy objective. also at minimising social costs and facilitating adaptation during re- 18 sector studies, structuring processes through a one methodology better anticipation and positive management of change. Globalisa- The results of this study aim to tion, technological change, climate serve as a guide in launching fur- change and demographic develop- ther EU and other actions to pro- ments (including ageing and migra- mote the strategic management tion) in that respect pose huge chal- of human resources and to foster lenges, comprising both risks and stronger synergies between inno- opportunities. In that context, the vation, skills and jobs, taking into Commission has launched recently account the global context and en- the New Skills for New Jobs initia- couraging adaptations to national tive together with other related Eu- and regional level. ropean projects aimed at identify- ing future job and skills needs using To validate, add and complement quantitative modelling approaches. the findings of the project and While having advantages of robust- to make sure that results are dis- ness, stakeholders as well as the seminated as broadly as possible European Commission identified a across Europe, relevant stakehold- clear need for complementary more ers including European social part- qualitative forward-looking analy- ners, other services from the Com- sis. Consequently, the European mission with the expertise in the Commission commissioned in 2007 sectors analysed, representatives a series of 18 future-oriented sector from the European Parliament, studies (horizon 2020) on skills and the European Economic and Social jobs following a uniform, qualita- Committee, the Committee of the tive methodology. Results of these Regions, Eurofound and Cedefop studies have become available in were involved in the project from summer 2009, and will be followed the beginning. 4
Aims and methodology
Sectors Covered
Automotive industry
Defence
Textiles, wearing apparel and leather products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber and plastic products
Non-metallic materials (glass, cement, ceramic…)
Electromechanical engineering
Computer, electronic and optical products
Building of ships and boats
Furniture and others
Electricity, gas, water & waste
Distribution, trade
Hotels, restaurants, catering and related services
Transport
Post and telecommunications
Financial services (bank, insurance and others)
Health and social work
Other services, maintenance and cleaning
A standard predefined methodol- tions for emerging competences
ogy was developed by a panel of and occupation profiles in terms
experts under the direction of Prof of jobs expanding, transforming or
Maria João Rodrigues and applied declining, and their implications
to all 18 studies to ensure consis- in terms of strategic choices and
tency and comparability of the re- subsequent recommendations for
sults, the studies being produced companies, education and train-
by different contractors. ing systems, social partners and
public authorities at all levels. This
Based on the basic methodologi- foresight methodology implies an
cal framework, each contractor approach combining desk research
executed 7 defined steps, starting and expert knowledge.
with the mapping of main trends,
key drivers of change, leading to At the end of each sector study a
scenarios of plausible evolution final European workshop for the
and their implication for employ- sector was organised by the Com-
ment at the year 2020 time hori- mission to validate results as well
zon, the identification of implica- as refine recommendations. In
5Printing and Publishing
addition to European Commission of all sections were summarised
and Eurofound staff, about 20 ex- in a SWOT analysis and were used
perts per workshop from industry, as input to identify key drivers.
academia and sector organisations
including workers and employ- Drivers of change
ers’ representatives with a sound
knowledge of jobs and skills were On the basis of the mapping of
invited to comment and provide the sector, a set of key drivers,
recommendations to the report as sector specific or not, was identi-
part of the methodology. fied. Literature review and expert
knowledge of the sector were
Brief description of then used to define a conclu-
the methodological steps sive list of sector-specific drivers.
Drivers were classified as exog-
Mapping enous or endogenous depend-
ing on the ability for the sector’s
The main purpose of this analy- stakeholders and policymakers
sis was to provide factual back- to influence them. These lists of
ground to identify key drivers drivers were also discussed in the
used in the subsequent scenario experts’ p anel workshops.
development. Consequently, the
Report analysed recent sector Qualitative scenarios and impli-
developments and trends and, cations for employment trends
at the same time, depicts the
current state of play in the sec- The set of selected sectoral drivers
tor with an emphasis on innova- of change served as an input to
tion, skills and jobs. It was based develop scenarios for the evolution
on an analysis of available time of the sector and implications for
series data and relevant existing different occupations (composition
studies. It analysed 1) structural of employment / emerging compe-
characteristics (production, value tences) in the period 2008 to 2020.
added, employment in various di-
mensions, and related factors); 2) Implications of scenarios and
the value chain; 3) technological emerging competences
change and innovation; 4) trade
and international competition as Scenarios were built to assess the
well as 5) regulation. The results implications for the level (absolute
6Aims and methodology
demand) and composition (relative were looked at in this step of the
demand compared to other job methodology, focussing more
functions) of employment of dif- particularly on the specific role
ferent job functions by 2020. New to be played by sectoral organi-
and emergent skills required by dif- sations, educational institutions
ferent job functions were identified and governments such as a stron-
based on the analysis of the evolu- ger cooperation between stake-
tion of past data on employment holders or an increased flexibility
by occupation, on the analysis from through modularisation of educa-
the present situation and of experts’ tion and training.
comments during the workshop.
The focus was on identifying and Recommendations
describing key and critical com-
petences for the future for each of Each sector study contains spe-
the major occupational function in cific recommendations to the
relation to the different scenarios sector. However, with the studies
elaborated. These formed the basis analysing Europe as a whole, the
for the strategic choices identified recommendations remain gen-
in a next step. eral and need a follow-up at the
national and regional level. The
Strategic choices for companies to intention of the project especially
meet emergent competence needs in the follow up phase is to use the
results to stimulate stakeholders
Each sector study assessed possible at lower territorial levels (national
strategic choices in terms of feasibil- / regional) to work out results in
ity and actor involvement. The op- more details, repeat and adapt this
tions comprised recruiting workers exercise to local needs rather than
from other sectors, countries, re- providing standardised solutions.
cruiting graduates, re-training em- Some general recommendations
ployed workers as well as changing call for an intensified co-operation
work organisation. between relevant stakeholders,
the need to invest strongly in hu-
Specific implications man capital, more standardised
for education and training regulations, enhanced VET to in-
crease social mobility and coordi-
Options to improve or to adapt nated National and European Vo-
education and training systems cational Qualifications.
7Printing and Publishing The printing and publishing sector – main characterisation Printing and publishing have tra- activities, such as bookbinding, ditionally been - and to a certain plate-making services, and data degree still are - closely related imaging. Processes used in print- industries. Publishing can be de- ing include a variety of methods fined as the process of production for transferring an image from a and dissemination of information, plate, screen or computer file to a i.e. making information available medium, such as paper, plastics, for public view. It refers to the dis- metal, textile articles, or wood. In tribution of works such as books, recent years the ties between both magazines, newspapers and sound sectors are diminishing, as printed recordings in printed or electronic material has become less impor- form. Publishing includes various tant for publishing companies, stages, from the development, and digitization, Internet and new acquisition, copy-editing, graphic media have found their way in. design and other pre-press acti Boundaries between publishing vities to the actual production and other industries have started (i.e. printing), marketing and dis- to blur, with publishers, printers tribution. Printing is the process and others converging but at the for reproducing text and image, same time diversifying their prod- including associated support uct portfolios. Note: The statistical material contained in the report covers printing activities as a whole (NACE 22.2).The analytical part of the report focuses exclu- sively on the print market for publishing products, excluding commer- cial printing activities. 8
Main economic and employment trends
Main economic and
employment trends
Value added of the printing, faster than imports over the period
publishing and recorded media 1995-2006, with 5.2% against 5.1%
sector as a whole amounted to annually for the EU as a whole.
124.8 bn euro in the EU in 2006, Trade growth in the NMS was ex-
of which 120.6 bn euro was gen- plosive, with exports growing at a
erated in the EU-15, with publish- rate of 15.5%, and imports growing
ing being the biggest sub-sector, with 9.0% annually.
closely followed by printing, and
at large distance by recorded me- The printing, publishing and re-
dia. Value added annual growth corded media sector accounted for
was - with 2.2% - almost equal to 217,000 firms (figures 2005), which
the 2.3% growth of the EU econo- together employed 1.91 million
my as a whole during the period people, equivalent to 0.87% of
1995-2006, but substantially low- overall EU employment and 5.54%
er during the 2000-2006 period of EU manufacturing employment.
(1.2%). In the new Member States 854 thousand of these jobs were
(NMS) growth was, with 2.1%, slow- in publishing, and 1,053 thousand
er than the overall economy (3.2%), in printing and recorded media.
and even negative during the 86%, respectively 82% of the jobs
2000-2006 period (-0.6%, against in both sub-sectors were located in
5.3% annually during 1995-2000). the EU-15. Employment in publish-
In absolute terms value added of ing in the EU grew with 0.3% annu-
the NMS accounted for only 3.5% of ally during the period 2000-2006,
the value added generated by the and with 0.5% in the new Member
EU-15. Trade amounted to €44.8 bn States. In printing negative growth
in exports and €28.4 bn in imports of -1.2% was observed, however,
in 2006, which is equivalent to 36% with strong annual growth in the
and 23%, respectively, of value new Member States (5.6% against
added. Exports grew marginally -2.3% in the EU-15).
9Printing and Publishing
Employment, state-of-play 2006 and changes 2000-2006
Publishing Level 2006 Annual growth Share in EU Change
(times 1,000) in share
EU 854 0.3 100 0
EU15 734 0.3 86 0
NMS 120 0.5 14 0
Printing / Level 2006 Annual growth Share in EU Change
recorded in share
media
EU 1 053 -1.2 100 0
EU15 865 -2.3 82 -6
NMS 188 5.3 18 6
Source: Eurostat/TNO. Publishing: NACE 221. Printing and recorded media: NACE 222+223.
The majority of firms in the printing share has, together with that of
and publishing industry (97.6%) are medium enterprises, increased by
small firms employing less than 50 0.7% point. Employment in large
employees; 2.0% is medium-sized firms declined with 0.9%-point.
and only 0.4% are large firms with
more than 250 employees. Small Employment trends by job func-
firms account for about 48% of all tion: shares (2006) and changes in
employment and their employment shares (in%), 2000-2006
10Main economic and employment trends
Employment trends by job function: shares (2006) and changes
in shares (in%), 2000-2006
Printing and Shares, 2006 Changes in shares, 2000-2006
Publishing
EU15 NMS EU EU15 NMS EU
Managers 11 8 10 0 2 0
Computer 2 4 4 1 2 1
professionals
Engineers, 3 4 3 0 1 0
technicians
Business 5 6 5 1 3 1
professionals
Other professionals 25 22 25 4 -13 3
Office clerks and 11 9 10 -2 -4 -2
secretaries
Service workers 3 2 3 0 0 0
Craft printing and 18 19 18 -5 4 -4
related trades
Other craft and 1 2 2 0 0 0
trades workers
Printing, binding, 7 14 8 -1 6 0
paper machine
operators
Other plant and 3 4 3 0 3 0
machine operators
Labourers 11 4 10 3 -3 2
Source: Eurostat Labour Force Survey/TNO
Printing and publishing are fast- foundly impacting and changing
changing, dynamic sub-sectors, the industry. Changes in business
with ICT (notably electronic me- structure and business models, with
dia; Internet; ICT-embedded tech- new competitors (new media, but
nologies and automation) and also free newspapers for example)
strong global competition (Asia, coming to the stage, new product
viz. Singapore, China, others) pro- portfolios (diversification) but also
11Printing and Publishing
downstream integration and con- Most jobs are in the function cat-
vergence in different information egories other professionals (i.e.
and communications markets (i.e. journalists, editors and writers),
one content base that can be dis- pre-press workers (category craft
tributed through different chan- printing and related trades), office
nels with important economies of clerks, managers and labourers, the
scale and scope), obviously influ- last accounting for 10% of the work-
ence both job volumes and skills force. The new Member States have
mix in the industry. The pre-press considerably more printing, bind-
function, for example, has been ing and paper machine operators,
absorbed both by publishers and less managers and considerably
designers who can now perform less labourers than the EU-15. The
their own layout with DTP software, share of women in overall employ-
and by printers who have brought ment is with 41% is high compared
these services in-house. to other manufacturing sectors.
Employment by gender, age and education:
printing and publishing, 2006 and 2000-2006
EU EU 15 NMS
Level Change Level Change Level Change
Women 41 2 40 2 46 -5
Age < 40 52 -3 50 -4 58 9
Age 40 – 50 25 0 26 1 22 -8
Age > 50 24 2 24 3 20 -1
Low education 22 -5 25 -4 5 -3
Mid education 50 1 47 -2 67 10
High education 28 5 28 6 27 -7
Entre-preneurs 13 n.a. 12 n.a. 21 n.a.
Definition Level % Total Level % Total Level % Total
2006 change %, 2006 change %, 2006 change %,
2000-06 2000-06 2000-06
Source: Alphametrics/TNO based on Eurostat Labour Force Survey
12Main economic and employment trends
Employment is dominated by me- workers (minus 5% points in the
dium educated employees; this is EU-15 and +4% in the NMS), print-
true for the EU-15 (47%), but espe- ing, binding and paper machine op-
cially for the new Member States erators (up by 6% points in the NMS
(67%). Low educated workers, with and down minus 1% point in the
a share of 25% in the EU-15 and only EU-15) and office clerks and assem-
5% in the new Member States, lost blers (down by 4%, respectively 2%
ground, with decreases in the EU- points). The lower educated (‘blue
15 and NMS of 4%- and 3% points collar’ jobs) lost ground overall; the
over the last 7 years. 52% of all em- share of mid-educated decreased in
ployees is younger than 40 years. the EU-15, but increased strongly in
During the period 2000-2006 most the NMS (+10% points). The reverse
job change was observed among applies to the high-educated with
journalists, editors and writers (mi- a substantial increase in the EU-15,
nus 13% points in the NMS and but an even bigger decrease in the
+4% points in the EU-15), pre-press NMS.
13Printing and Publishing
SWOT analysis and Identification
of Main Drivers
SWOT analysis Printing and Publishing
Strengths Weaknesses
• Small businesses more flexible to satisfy • Small businesses lower absorptive capacity
customer demands. In publishing production regarding process and product innovation due to
networks characterised through flexible lack of economies of scale and scope.
specialisation already visible.
• Short term contracts limit investments and
• Knowledge of and experience in how to target innovation.
audiences.
• Individualisation of consumer markets leads to
decrease of economies of scale.
• Inability of publishing companies to develop new
successful (online) business models.
• Property rights not always secured properly.
(publishing).
• Heavy investments to keep both printed and
online versions (publishing).
• Attracting young readers remains a challenge
(publishing).
Opportunities Threats
• Added services in communication services. • Stronger competition, both intra-European and
global.
• Creation of value and production networks
providing both specialisation and flexibility. • Printing with a long-to-market vulnerable to
relocation.
• Individualisation of consumers leads to new
and more differentiated market segments with • Restrictive legislation in advertising.
differentiated profiles and media demands.
• Environmental regulation regarding CO2, inks,
• New media enable publishers to reach these and paper use.
target audiences.
• Growing environmental awareness with the public.
• Multimedia content development, multimedia
design and distribution due to shift in media • Growing importance of electronic delivery of
consumption. media content (commercial and non-commercial
information), causing substitution of printed
• Digitisation leads to lower printing costs and media by Internet and mobile devices.
may enhance printing demand in small runs.
• Consolidation upstream and downstream in the
• Catching up process in media and paper value chain (counts for printing).
consumption in NMS.
• High consolidation in the media market, with
large global players.
• Piracy of online, but also offline content, also in
traditionally “safe sectors”, such as newspapers.
Source: TNO/SEOR.
14SWOT analysis and Identification of Main Drivers
The Strengths-Weaknesses-Oppor-
tunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis and
the expert-based search for main
drivers of change (see Tables) both
yield important building bricks for
the design and construction of the
scenarios. A further differentiation
was made been exogenous drivers
(drivers that form a “given” at sec-
tor level1) and endogenous drivers
(drivers that can be influenced at
the sector level, for instance by na-
tional or European policy-making,
or by collective effort from within
the sector.
1 With the exception here of Technology, parts of which
can be influenced at firm level. For reasons of internal
consistency of the scenarios, this driver is nevertheless
categorised as exogenous.
1516
Driver Is this How How Are Are Are Short, Substantial Substantial
driver relevant uncertain substantial substantial substantial medium differences differences
relevant is this is this impacts impacts impacts or long expected expected
for the driver driver expected expected expected run between between
sector? for the for the on the on on new impact? countries? sectors?
sector? sector? volume of employ- skills?
Y/N employ- ment S M L Y/N Y/N
Category
Scale Scale ment? compo- Y/N
Printing and Publishing
0-10 0-10 sition?
Y/N
Y/N
Ageing – Y 7 8 Y N N X Y
declining
D*
labour
Main drivers of change publishing
force
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI. Note: * Demographic ; ^ Environment
Income per Y 7 3 N N N X N
capita and
household
Income Y 7 3 N N N X N
distribution
Economic
Increasing Y 7 8 N Y Y X N
global
compe-
titionGlobal / Y 8 2 N Y Y X N
regional
production
networks
(dispersed
Economic
production
locations,
transport)
Increasing Y 8 1 Y Y Y X Y
market
segmen-
tation
(tailor
made
production,
mass
customi-
Cultural values
zation)
Lifestyle Y 8 1 Y Y Y X Y
changes
Advances in Y 10 1 N Y Y X N
IT impacting
on organiza-
tional
structures
& new
business
models
17
SWOT analysis and Identification of Main Drivers
R&D, Technology & Innovation18
Driver Is this How How Are Are Are Short, Substantial Substantial
driver relevant uncertain substantial substantial substantial medium differences differences
relevant is this is this impacts impacts impacts or long expected expected
for the driver driver expected expected expected run between between
sector? for the for the on the on on new impact? countries? sectors?
sector? sector? volume of employ- skills?
Y/N employ- ment S M L Y/N Y/N
Category
Scale Scale ment? compo- Y/N
Printing and Publishing
0-10 0-10 sition?
Y/N
Y/N
Internet Y 10 1 N Y Y X N
changing
production
and consum-
ption
patterns
(e-business;
etc.)
New types Y 10 1 N Y Y X N
of work
organisation
(teams-
based,
R&D, Technology & Innovation
socio-
technique,
etc.)New/ Y 10 1 Y Y Y X Y
additional
value-
added
services
Availability Y 8 3 N N N X Y
and price
of other
E^
natural
resources
Trade and Y 10 1 N Y Y X N
market
libera-
lisation
(national
level)
Quality of Y 8 3 Y N N X N
institutions
(judiciary,
transpa-
rency, lack of
Political
corruption,
viable
business
climate,
structural
rigidities)
Property Y 8 5 N N N X Y Y
19
SWOT analysis and Identification of Main Drivers
rights
(copyright)20
Driver Is this How How Substantial Substantial Are Short, Substantial Substantial
driver relevant uncertain impacts impacts substantial medium differences differences
relevant is this is this expected expected impacts or long expected expected
for the driver driver on the on employ- expected run between between
sector? for the for the volume of ment on new impact? countries? sectors?
sector? sector? employ- compo- skills?
Y/N ment? sition? S M L Y/N Y/N
Category
Scale Scale Y/N
Printing and Publishing
0-10 0-10 Y/N Y/N
Ageing – Y 8 2 Y Y Y X N
declining
D*
Main drivers of change: printing
labour
force
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI. Note: * Demographic ; ^ Environment
Outsourcing Y 9 2 Y Y Y X N Y*
& offshoring
Increasing Y 9 2 Y Y Y X N Y*
global
competition
Emerging Y 8 4 Y Y Y X N Y*
economies
driving
Economic
global
growth
(new
market
demand,
esp. BRICs)Global / Y 8 6 Y Y Y X N Y*
regional
production
networks
(dispersed
Economic
production
locations,
transport)
Increasing Y 8 5 N Y Y X N Y
market
segmen-
tation
(tailor made
production,
mass
ustomiza-
tion)
Cultural values
Increasing Y 7 7 N Y Y X N N
demand for
environ-
mentally
friendly
products
Advances Y 8 1 Y Y Y X N N
in IT
impacting
organiza-
tional
structures
21
SWOT analysis and Identification of Main Drivers
& new
business
models
R&D, Technology & Innovation22
Driver Is this How How Are Are Are Short, Substantial Substantial
driver relevant uncertain substantial substantial substantial medium differences differences
relevant is this is this impacts impacts impacts or long expected expected
for the driver driver expected expected expected run between between
sector? for the for the on the on on new impact? countries? sectors?
sector? sector? volume of employ- skills?
Y/N employ- ment S M L Y/N Y/N
Category
Scale Scale ment? compo- Y/N
Printing and Publishing
0-10 0-10 sition?
Y/N
Y/N
Internet Y 9 3 Y Y Y X Y (EU15 Y (specia-
changing more lization)
production mature)
and consum-
ption
patterns
(e-business;
etc.)
New types Y 7 4 N Y Y X N N
of work
organisation
(teams-
based,
R&D, Technology & Innovation
socio-
technique,
etc.)New/ Y 9 1 Y Y Y X Y (see Y (see
additional above) above)
value-
added
services
Availability/ Y 8 3 Y N N X N N
price oil
and energy
resources
Availability Y 10 1 Y N N X N N
Env^
/ price
other
natural
resources
Trade and Y 7 8 Y Y Y X N N
market
liberalisation
(national)
EU Y 8 3 Y Y Y X N N
integration
– deepening
(single
European
Political
market etc.)
EU Y 8 2 Y Y Y X N N
integration –
broadening
23
SWOT analysis and Identification of Main Drivers
(bigger
domestic
market)24
Driver Is this How How Are Are Are Short, Substantial Substantial
driver relevant uncertain substantial substantial substantial medium differences differences
relevant is this is this impacts impacts impacts or long expected expected
for the driver driver expected expected expected run between between
sector? for the for the on the on on new impact? countries? sectors?
sector? sector? volume of employ- skills?
Y/N employ- ment S M L Y/N Y/N
Category
Scale Scale ment? compo- Y/N
Printing and Publishing
0-10 0-10 sition?
Y/N
Y/N
Environ- Y 8 2 Y Y Y X Y Y (effect of
mental special-
regulation ization)Scenarios and implications for employment
Scenarios and implications
for employment
Four future scenarios have been a ctors. Endogenous drivers are
constructed and explored: 1) Free drivers that can be influenced at
Transformation, 2) Free Continu- the sector level, for instance by na-
ation, 3) Transformation, and 4), tional or European policy-making,
Regulated Continuation (see also or collective effort from within the
Figure). The scenarios depict plau- sector. In constructing the scenari-
sible and credible futures for the os, those drivers have been select-
printing and publishing sector in ed that scored high on the criteria
Europe by 2020. Rather than wish- relevance, impact and uncertainty.
ful pictures (‘dreams’, ‘crystal ball The relevance criterion was used to
gazing’) of the future, scenarios are focus and tailor the scenarios to the
founded on drivers and trends ob- aim at hand, i.e. drawing inferences
served and are derived in a logical on the future of jobs and skills and
and deductive way, hence making knowledge needs by 2020. Impact
inferences about plausible future and uncertainty were used to de-
developments. Rather than predic- fine distinct directions in the four
tions or forecasts based on a mod- scenarios which have been depict-
el, the scenarios outcomes in this ed in the figure below, with the ex-
study are based on expert opinion. ogenous drivers on the horizontal
The bandwidth between the most axis and the endogenous drivers
extreme scenarios can be inter- on the vertical axis.
preted as indicative for the degree
of uncertainty indicating possible
paths for flexible anticipation.
Construction, hypotheses
and use of the scenarios
In constructing the scenarios, a
clear distinction has been made
between exogenous and endog-
enous drivers, the main difference
being the scope and ability for
direct influence. Exogenous driv-
ers are drivers that form a “given”
for the sector without much room
for influence for and by individual
25Printing and Publishing
Four future scenarios for the printing and publishing sector and
main underlying drivers
Endogenous, sector specific
drivers:
- Market regulation: media
- Environmental regulation
- Property rights
Media regulation: low barriers
Environmental regulation: loose
Property rights: unsecured
Exogenous drivers:
- Globalisation - Fast - S low
- Technology &
innovation Free Free
• Increased use of ICT - Fast change Transformation Continuation - S low change
• New value added - Many - F ew
services
• New forms work - Many - F ew
organisation
-N atural resources
• Oil, energy & paper - Scarce - S carce
• Concentration - High -H igh
paper industry
Regulated Regulated
- L ifestyle changes
Transformation Continuation
• Digital content & - Virtual - Traditional
media
• Individualisation - High - L ow
-A geing labour force Moderate -M oderate
Media Regulations: high barriers
Environmental regulation: strict
Property rights: secured
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI
26Scenarios and implications for employment
The scenarios apply to both print- Scenario I:
ing and publishing. This does nei- Free Transformation
ther imply that future develop-
ments in both sub-sectors are to Free Transformation depicts a world
be taken as one and the same, nor characterised by strong techno-
that development paths between logical development, high rates
Member States need to be similar. of substitution from traditional to
The sectors will face different dy- new media, and strong global and
namics in terms of market structure intra-EU competition. Some of the
and developments, while driven existing EU companies are able
by similar but differently impact- to expand internationally. M&As
ing drivers. The way the scenarios are manifold; many new entrants
have been constructed enables emerge and thrive, especially in
such differentiation. Note that publishing, as they have the abil-
the demographics – ageing (less ity to respond quickly to changing
young, more retirees) – and its ef- lifestyles. Some entrants are able to
fects on labour supply have not grow into powerful diversified play-
explicitly been identified in select- ers within several years; others are
ing the drivers, as demographics taken over by larger firms (consoli-
in the time frame of 2009-2020 are dation). Deregulation means that
relatively certain (i.e. predictable) companies are not faced with barri-
and play a role across all scenari- ers imposed by media policy: they
os. Education and training, which can grow and diversify without lim-
stricto sensu could be perceived as itation. Innovation is important for
endogenous factors, have been ex- staying competitive. However, as
cluded. They form - together with a property rights are unsecured, pub-
number of other strategies and/or lishing companies have difficulty in
policies - the solutions and hence a collecting revenues for their new
possible response to the impact of products. Companies extensively
the scenario on skills, knowledge use ICT possibilities and new forms
and jobs. The key features of the of work organisation to increase
four scenarios can be described as efficiency. Fast successful develop-
follows: ment in publishing attracts a young
workforce, neutralising the impact
of an ageing labour force. Substi-
tution of printed matter and tech-
nological developments decreases
27Printing and Publishing
the need for natural resources, such focus on cost-reduction, as many of
as paper and energy; even so, pro- them feel the increasing competi-
ducing environmentally friendly tive pressure from large publishers.
(‘green’) provides opportunities Input price increases (e.g. paper,
for diversification. The market is energy) and environmental con-
more difficult for printers, many of sumer concerns cause companies
whom go bankrupt because of less to minimise the use of resources.
demand and other companies be- Yet they have few technological
ing better equipped to perform the options to do so, faced with slow
newly demanded high value added progress in innovation. Margins
services. Lower skilled work is out- are low and printers try to enlarge
sourced or taken over by foreign their business operations to exploit
competitors. Printers that are able economies of scale. Concentration
to convert themselves to online means that the number of com-
communication or design are able panies reduces sharply, but not in
to stay in business. production value. Environmental
problems thus persist. Printers face
Scenario II: severe image problems and have
Free Continuation problems in attracting young peo-
ple, with ageing becoming a seri-
Free Continuation depicts a world ous problem.
characterised by slow globalisation,
limited international expansion and Scenario III:
offshoring, and limited substitution Regulated Transformation
of traditional printed material by
new media. With little competition Regulated Transformation depicts a
from outside the EU, competition is world characterised by high substi-
mostly national and cost-focused, tution and globalisation. Media pol-
with limited diversification and in- icy, however, limits media owner-
novation. Lifestyle changes and ship with publishers and other firms
individualisation play a lesser role, being restricted in size. The media
with customers demanding most- landscape is hence diversified with
ly cheap and generic products. many smaller players, each deliver-
Cost reduction is also achieved ing products that have a particular
by exploiting economies of scale focus group, but using all channels
through M&As without limitation available. In some markets there
to media ownership. Also printers is less room for new entrants as
28Scenarios and implications for employment
c ompanies exploit their home mar- drive up costs and decrease mar-
ket far more intensively. Printers gins, especially for printers. Secure
can profit from the diversified land- digital rights have little to no im-
scape by providing various services pact, as demand for digital prod-
specialised for special target groups ucts is limited.
and forming relationships with pub-
lishers. As digital rights are secured,
companies can reap the benefits
of innovation. Strict environmental
regulation does not have a large
impact, but with strong substitu-
tion and technology improving, en-
vironmentally friendly production
becomes reality.
Scenario IV:
Regulated Continuation
Regulated Continuation depicts a
world characterised by moderate
competition, strong media regula-
tion and media companies facing
limits to growth. Companies are
strongly focused on one market
segment, as diversification pos-
sibilities are limited; entry for new
competitors is difficult as barri-
ers to entry are high. Still, differ-
ent market segments compete for
customer attention. The number
of printers reduces, but to a lesser
extent than in Free Continuation. Al-
though environmental regulation
is in place, technological options
for substituting paper are limited.
Prices of paper and energy rise and
environmental regulations further
29Printing and Publishing
Implications of scenarios: job volume changes by function, 2009-2020
Free Trans- Regulated Free Regulated
formation Trans- Continuation Continuation
formation
Managers Pub M M M M
Print D M D D
ICT & engineering Pub I I M M
profs.
Print I I M M
Business & finance Pub I I M M
profs.
Print I I M M
Journalist, editors, Pub I I D D
writers
Support staff Pub D D D D
Print D D D D
Pre-press workers Print D I M M
Production workers Print D D D D
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI. Note: D = decrease, I = increase, M = maintain. Pub = Publishing; Print = Printing.
30Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
Implications of scenarios for jobs,
skills and knowledge by job function
In determining job volume chang- Free Transformation and Regulated
es, a distinction has been drawn be- Transformation also requires more
tween printing and publishing. For managers. The demand for ICT &
both Free Continuation and Regulat- engineering professionals is mostly
ed Continuation, expected volume driven by technological develop-
changes will not differ greatly even ments and new high value added
though the intensity of change services. In Free Transformation and
will be larger in Free Continuation. Regulated Transformation therefore,
Free Transformation and Regulated their volume can be expected; in
Transformation show similar chang- the other scenarios their number
es, with a stronger effect in Free will remain the same. It is expected
Transformation. The main differ- that the number of ICT & engineer-
ence between Free Transformation ing professionals will increase more
and Regulated Transformation on in the strongly developing markets
the one hand and Free Continua- of Eastern and Central Europe than
tion and Regulated Continuation on in developed markets. The number
the other is, however, in expected of business & finance profession-
changes in the skills mix. als is expected to increase in sce-
narios with fast changing demand
In all scenarios except the stable inducing market conditions and in
Regulated Transformation manag- contexts with a rising number of
ers in printing will face a decline, as services and organisational com-
the number of companies is likely plexity, i.e. in Free Transformation
to reduce. In publishing there is no and Regulated Transformation. Vol-
obvious trend towards any increase ume changes are expected to be
or decrease, however. Cutting costs higher in publishing. The number
will affect the number of managers of journalists, editors and writers
and the number of companies only can be expected to increase in line
marginally. It will be mostly lower with the recent trend, especially
layers within the organization that in the fast paced scenarios. Again
will be affected. In all scenarios man- demand is driven by the need to
agers fulfil a prominent role, espe- supply more value added servic-
cially in publishing. Reorganisations es, via new media channels; job
in publishing in Free Continuation contracts will, however, become
and Regulated Continuation will be more flexible. In Free Continuation
led by managers. Diversification in and Regulated Continuation their
31Printing and Publishing umber is expected to decrease, as n but with a central role in produc- a result of consolidation. For sup- tion and customer services leading port staff changes are to a large to an increased demand. Produc- extent similar across scenarios and tion workers - mostly relevant in sub-sectors. Increased efficiency printing - are expected to decrease will reduce the need for adminis- in all scenarios, albeit for different tration, although in Free Transfor- reasons. In Free Transformation and mation and Regulated Transforma- Regulated Transformation declines tion decreases are partly offset by are due to further automation, an increasing demand because of outsourcing and less demand for increasing organisational complex- traditional printed material. In Free ity and diversification of services. Continuation and Regulated Contin- In Free Continuation and Regulated uation, demand decreases because Continuation demand slows down of consolidation and cost cutting. as the need to cut costs is high, In developing markets the number consolidation leads to a further re- of production workers will decrease duction of administrative tasks and more than in more mature markets new services do hardly arise. In pre- where the majority of companies is press expected changes vary across already producing efficiently; com- scenarios. Pre-press is the desk- panies have to ensure that (organi- top publishing side within print- sational) slack is further reduced in ing companies and is important in order to stay in business. delivering of value added services through different channels. In Free Identification of emerging Transformation the number of print- competences, skills and ing companies goes down fast, and knowledge needs therefore the need for pre-press services. Because of the impor- By taking the scenarios and driv- tance of pre-press workers for new ers as a starting point, logical in- services their number will increase ferences (‘guestimates’) of skills in Regulated Transformation, with and knowledge needs were made little change in the number of for each of the identified job func- printing offices. In Free Continua- tions. Skills refer to the ability to ap- tion and Regulated Continuation ply knowledge and use know-how their number is expected to be to complete tasks and solve prob- stable, with consolidation and little lems. In the context of the Europe- diversification restraining growth, an Qualification Framework (EQF), 32
Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
skills are described as cognitive (in- Future skills and
volving the use of logical, intuitive knowledge needs by
and creative thinking) or practical job function
(involving manual dexterity and
the use of methods, materials, tools Across all job functions soft skills
and instruments). Knowledge refers will become increasingly important,
to the outcome of the accumulation especially so for high skilled profes-
of information through learning. It sional job functions. The general
is the body of facts, principles, the- trend of up-skilling across job func-
ories and practices that is related tions is bound to continue in the
to a field of work or study. In EQF coming years. Due to the changing
context, knowledge is described as nature of jobs, predefined tech-
theoretical and/or factual. Compe- nical knowledge capabilities will
tences refer to the proven ability to become somewhat less important
use knowledge, skills and personal, while skills to adapt and learn new
social and/ or methodological abili- competences and life-long learning
ties, in work or study situations and will be put at a premium. Certain
in professional and personal devel- knowledge – notably e-skills – will
opment. Competences thus defined become more important. Emerg-
come actually close to what is gen- ing competences of higher skilled
erally understood nowadays as ‘soft jobs mostly refer to how to learn,
skills’. In EQF context, competences communicate, interact and adapt
are described in terms of responsi- to changing environments in ad-
bility and autonomy. In the practi- dition to a high quality education.
cal elaboration of future skills and Emerging competences in medi-
knowledge needs for the purpose um-educated job functions that
of this study, both have been fur- mostly execute defined tasks and
ther ‘disentangled’ to result into six processes refer mostly to specific
clusters of similar and related skills knowledge sets that can be taught
and knowledge needs (see box). through learning.
33Printing and Publishing
Overview of skills and knowledge needs identified for each job
function and scenario
Knowledge (‘hard skills’)
• Legislative / regulatory knowledge (environmental / safety / labour / contracting);
Language*; e-skills; Marketing skills; Technical knowledge; Product knowledge; Product
development
Social Skills
• Team working skills; Social perceptiveness (listening / understanding); Communication;
Networking; Language*; Intercultural
Problem-solving Skills
• Analytical skills; Interdisciplinary; Initiative, Multi-skilling; Creativity
Self-management Skills
• Planning; Stress and time management; Flexibility; Multi-tasking
Management skills
• Strategic & visionary; Coaching and team building; Change management; Project
management; Process optimizing; Quality management; People skills crucial for collegial
management style
Entrepreneurial skills
• Supplier and customer relationship / understanding; Business understanding /
development; Trend setting / trend spotting
Source: TNO-SEOR-ZSI
We illustrate the key emerging skills Journalists, editors and writers –
and knowledge needs for two vital While different though related oc-
job functions, notably journalists, cupational groups, the function
editors and writers (key in publish- boundaries between the three are
ing) and pre-press workers (key in blurring; a considerable propor-
printing). 2 tion of work can be relatively easy
outsourced to freelancers or other
part-time positions. In high-paced
technological change scenarios
2 F or a summary of expected changes in skills and knowl- (Free Transformation and Regu-
edge needs for these and other job categories, see the
tables at the end of this summary. More extensive and
lated Transformation) most of the
detailed accounts on future skills and knowledge needs changes are relevant for this func-
can be found in the main report, with further differentia-
tions made by scenario. tion group. Change offers a variety
34Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
of possibilities to publish content be necessary (intercultural skills,
and seemingly endless opportu- language, networking), in order to
nities emerge for those able to better understand new develop-
capture them. In slow-paced tech- ments and how to use new media
nological scenarios few changes as a way to bring news to a highly
apply, with journalists, editors and diversified audience. Communica-
writers coming under increasing tion skills and social perceptiveness
pressure from management and are considered essential in all sce-
business professionals to operate narios, in dealing with co-workers,
even more efficiently. In order to with other stakeholders and report-
live and stand up to these pres- ing as well as in quickly picking up
sures, management and financial signals and to be able to cope with
knowledge can be very useful. change. An important change is
Most job specific requirements do the shortening time between writ-
not vary considerably from what ing and publication, brought about
the skills and knowledge needs by the influence of new technology
are at this moment. Competences and globalisation which creates the
in Free Transformation and Regu- need for strong to problem solv-
lated Transformation relate mostly ing skills (interdisciplinary skills,
to professional knowledge and multi skilling and creativity), but
new competences related to new also more self-management skills.
technologies and services. Having Flexibility and planning are also rel-
the ability to learn continuously evant in the slow change technol-
is a major strength for journalists, ogy and globalisation scenarios, as
writers and editors. The profession efficiency pushes journalists, writ-
has to get (further) accustomed ers and editors to take on diverse
to new organisational structures tasks, so as to improve efficiency. In
and the prolific use of computer both Transformation scenarios new
programmes and new multimedia services and new media opportu-
options. Knowledge about digital nities need to be taken up, which
workflows, cross media platforms, require entrepreneurial skills and
and other technical knowledge spirit. Project management and
are necessary in order to perform strategic and visionary skills should
well. Furthermore, in the regulated ensure that journalists and writers
scenarios knowledge about me- are successful in setting up new
dia regulations is an asset. Social services. In Free Continuation and
skills in international contacts will Regulated Continuation changes in
35Printing and Publishing
competences relate to organisa- these will be far more apparent in
tional changes, requiring adaptive fast changing technology scenar-
capabilities. Training in manage- ios. Changing soft- and hardware
ment skills can help to increase in- can give rise to problems if cus-
fluence on strategic choices. tomers do not provide the correct
format for their data. The technical
Pre-press workers - Pre-press is the orientation of pre-press workers
major node around which rela- will hence remain a vital part. This
tions between customers and is also apparent in new electronic
companies develop and forms the workflows, the updating of knowl-
interface between production and edge and the improvement of pro-
customers, while translating cus- cesses. Pre-press workers need to
tomer demand into workable for- be familiar with different kinds of
mats. The difference between the techniques and multimedia pos-
fast and slow technological change sibilities, also in relation to the use
scenarios is that more technology of the product. There is, however,
adds to the number of technolo- a danger that traditional pre-press
gy-related skills pre-press workers skills, related to typesetting, colour
need to acquire. In slow change picking and more general graphi-
scenarios pre-press workers the fo- cal skills, will be neglected due to
cus will be on further streamlining the rise of new technologies. Com-
and improving the process from panies still need to make sure that
client to production and in reduc- the more traditional skills are given
ing the use of natural resources the attention they deserve.
rather than on techniques. In Free
Continuation and Regulated Con- In the scenarios Regulated Trans-
tinuation pre-press is vital for com- formation, Free Continuation and
panies as they struggle to keep in Regulated Continuation knowledge
business. Customers should not of environmental management will
be bothered with technological become more important. Knowl-
details. As pre-press activities are edge of regulations is particularly
still too much focussed on technol- important in the ‘Regulated’ sce-
ogy, rather than commercial and narios. In all scenarios social skills
social aspects, the latter are central. will become a vital aspect of the
Whereas in all scenarios the impor- work of pre-press workers. This
tance of technical knowledge and involves the need to understand
e-skills will increase, the need for customers and co-workers and to
36Implications of scenarios for jobs, skills and knowledge by job function
be able to effectively communicate
demands and translating demands
into outputs, which also requires
visual communication. In scenarios
of fast-paced technological change,
strong cooperation is needed be-
tween production, support staff
and pre-press workers, as produc-
tion becomes increasingly flexible.
Moreover, a strong customer orien-
tation requires entrepreneurial and
problem solving skills. Creativity can
help pre-press workers to come up
with creative ideas for new services
linked to a good understanding of
customer needs. New successful
services also relate to marketing
and business development skills.
With pre-press workers being im-
portant in aligning different parts of
the organisation, also with custom-
er wishes, multi-skilling is impor-
tant. Pre-press workers should be
able to motivate others into estab-
lishing new products and services.
New products will put additional
demands on pre-press workers in
terms of self-management skills and
management skills, notably a flex-
ible work attitude and the ability to
multi-task including keeping track
of the quality, safety and environ-
mental impacts.
37Printing and Publishing Main strategic choices to meet skill and knowledge needs In order to meet future skills and plants, by offering (re)training tra- knowledge needs, apt and timely jectories or by active global sourc- solutions – referred to here as stra- ing of personnel. For SMEs and es- tegic choices - are required (see pecially for micro-enterprises such Table below). Strategic choices re- longer-term, more strategic human fer and relate to the medium- and resource management often will longer term, even though emerg- be more difficult to organise and ing skills and knowledge needs operationalise. in practice may also apply to the now and tomorrow. Essential in In order to address the identified seeking appropriate solutions is to future skills and knowledge needs keep this longer time perspective in an encompassing and timely in mind. Rather than focusing on manner, appropriate joint action one single solution, a set of linked is needed by all stakeholders, in- strategic choices will in most cases cluding the industry (firms, sector be the best strategy to follow. Pri- organisations and social partners), oritising both in time (what first, training and education institutes, where to follow up) and in alloca- intermediary organisations and, tion of resources (including bud- last but not least, government at getary focus) followed by further all levels (EU, national, regional and fine-tuning is a clear necessity to local). Collaboration is needed in guarantee that skills needs are tar- order to agree on and implement geted and solved. Skill needs can a package of feasible solutions. be identified at various levels, rang- Timely, targeted and reliable infor- ing from assessments at the nation- mation to make decisions – i.e. ad- al or even European sector level to equate monitoring and analysis - is more precise assessments at the re- an essential prerequisite. gional and company level. Increas- ingly the identification of skills and knowledge needs but also the search for adequate solutions will have to become an integral part of an overall longer-term business strategy, also for SMEs. Some solu- tions w ill be found within the com- pany itself, e.g. through reorganis- ing functions within or between 38
You can also read
