Report 2: Christmas preparations underway - Kokoro-global.com
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1 November 2019 Report 2: Christmas preparations underway
2
Highlights
It’s going to be a tough Christmas – the adverts were the first skirmish but
Black Friday set to be the first real battle
Uncertain times hit Black Friday will be big – Christmas adverts a net
home – retailers need to its expansion from wow positive – and, this year,
be braced for lower spend deals to range-wide an escape from the
and at-home celebrations discounts being too good madness
to miss
TV still key in driving ad John Lewis & Partners Most other ads suffer by
awareness – clever brands triumphs along with missing the essence of
using tactics that help us others who take viewers Christmas or by being
lay down memories on an emotional journey overly ‘feel good’ rather
through highs and lows than ‘feel moved’
3 Uncertain times hit home – retailers need to be braced for lower spend and at-home celebrations
4 A grim and uncertain backdrop The last month has been bad for the nation’s morale – with relentless rain, trust in politicians at a low ebb and even the monarchy under pressure Source: Christmas Unwrapped – verbatim comments
5
A grim and uncertain backdrop
Optimism has dropped vs. this time last year as the nation has grown
markedly more fearful on many fronts
Net optimism % Concerned about each aspect
55%
Homelessness
65%
69%
Lack of funding for the NHS
77%
54%
Climate change
62%
60%
The mental health of people in the UK
67%
62%
The state of UK politics
68%
47%
44% 44% 44% 41% Boris Johnson's ability to manage the country
52%
October November
2018 2019 Oct-19 Nov-19
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)
6
A grim and uncertain backdrop
With all this uncertainty around there’s a growing determination to get
organised i.e. get a grip of the things that are in your control
“I like to feel organised in the run-up to Christmas”
The scary world “I’ve stopped reading the
around me newspaper because it’s all so
depressing… and if I’m online
I just whizz by the stories
My about Brexit and the election”
life
“It’s a bit sad to say but I
think charity begins at home
at the moment. I’m just
trying to make sure we’re
33%
33%
27%
25%
27%
31%
OK”
3%
3%
9%
7%
Disagree Agree
strongly strongly
Nov-18 Nov-19
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)
7
A grim and uncertain backdrop
Unsurprisingly, spend intentions are now significantly down on last year – with
family groups and the more affluent most likely to say they’ll rein things in
Christmas spending predictions Net change in Christmas spending 2019 vs. 2018
Total -5%
18-24 5%
25-34 -9% Family
35-54 -7%
years
55-64 2%
65+ -2%
Net change ABC1 -6%
16%
38%
17%
38%
29%
27%
11%
10%
= -5% pts
7%
8%
C2DE -3%
A lot less A little No A little A lot
less change more more
Nov-18 Nov-19
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)
8
A grim and uncertain backdrop
Despite families’ expected spend being down there’s a determination to shelter
kids from the gloom – even celebrate their joy as an antidote to dark times
“Christmas is all about children - there's less magic
without them”
The show must go on…
Santa doesn’t care I need something
about elections to lift my spirits
“Just because the country is in “I think we all need a bit of Christmas
25%
25%
10%
23%
23%
34%
37%
8%
6%
9%
such a mess doesn’t mean we magic. The last time the family got
can cancel Christmas. My kids together we had the mother of all
Disagree Agree deser ve it!” fights about Brexit. My mother-in-law
strongly strongly is bordering on racist in her views”
Nov-18 Nov-19
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)
9
A grim and uncertain backdrop
A combination of keeping things simple, plus an expectation that there’ll be
more deals, makes it possible to stay happy and spend less
Reason given for spending less this Christmas
Lower my expectations
Stay
happy
with my
Christmas
45%
47%
11%
14%
27%
26%
25%
24%
60%
59%
11%
11%
14%
15%
15%
17%
35%
39%
Have fewer Plan to use Worried Worried Worried Not hosting Will spend Going to There will be
Use any deals which
to buy for cheaper about about Brexit about as much less per have a more come my way
stores personal economy person simpler offers/deals
finances Christmas
Nov-18 Nov-19
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)
10
A grim and uncertain backdrop
All of this suggests that our prediction back in October: that this will be an ‘at
home’ Christmas, is likely to be spot on
Type of Christmas celebrations hoped for in 2019 vs. 2018
We used to dress up smartly
for Christmas Day – now it’s
more like ‘dressing up
clothes’!
48% 51% 42% 40% 10% 9% 52% 54% 37% 36% 11% 10%
Staying in Equally true Going out At home Equally true Away from home
Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-18 Oct-19
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)11 Black Friday will be big – its expansion from wow deals to range-wide discounts being too good to miss
12
A big Black Friday
Black Friday is set to be bigger than ever – all demographic groups showing a
rise in plans to shop the event YOY, with younger and male shoppers up most
Likelihood of shopping on Black Friday Net change in shopping on Black Friday 2019 vs. 2018
Total 7%
Male 10%
Female 7%
Under 35s 12%
35-54 10%
55-64 5%
65+ 8%
Net change ABC1 9%
25%
14%
21%
22%
14%
22%
24%
27%
15%
16%
= +7% pts
C2DE 8%
Very Quite Neither Quite Very likely
unlikely unlikely likely
Nov-18 Nov-19
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)13 A big Black Friday With many retailers expected to offer straight discounts off everything, it feels like ‘you’d be stupid not to’ take advantage of Source Christmas Unwrapped Survey
14
A big Black Friday
The relatively late slot for Black Friday – an event many people wait for – plus
terrible weather, has seen Christmas spend lag behind this time last year
% Intended spend on gifts % Intended spend on clothes % Intended spend on home products
already spent already spent already spent
100% 100% 100%
90% 90% 90%
80% 80% 80%
70% 70% 70%
60% 60% 60%
50% 50% 50%
40% 40% 40%
+3% vs. LY
30% 30% 30%
+3% vs. LY +5% vs. LY
20% 20% 20%
10% 10% 10%
0% 0% 0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-18 Nov-19 Nov-18 Nov-19
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)15
A big Black Friday
Money off the entire range is likely to result in a good amount of self-
purchasing on Black Friday
% Planning to buying each in a Black Friday event
Many of the growth categories
35% Nov-18 Nov-19 could easily be things you’re
30% buying for yourself
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)16
A big Black Friday
Against the general tide of brands offering Black Friday deals, a minority of
people congratulating brands taking an anti-Americanisation/anti-deals approach
I hate the way everything It brings out the worst in people. Although brands which have resisted Black Friday
American comes to the UK. I’m They just buy a load of stuff they
pleased to see some brands really don’t need. in the past are participating this year
making a stand against it
Previous years This year
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019), 2,937 (Nov 2018)17 Christmas adverts a net positive – and, this year, an escape from the madness
18
Escapism via Christmas ads
Seasonal adverts are still a fondly awaited, popular part of Christmas – for many
they signal the true start of the build-up
“It's great to be reminded of the true meaning of
Christmas”
6% 7% 24% 33% 31%
Disagree Agree
strongly strongly
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)19
Escapism via Christmas ads
In an era of division, many adverts’ emphasis on diversity is welcomed –
especially by younger consumers, who tend to be more liberal in their outlook
“I like the way many of the adverts show the diversity
in our society”
% Agreeing by age-group
45% 48% 38% 27% 21%
6% 8% 35% 33% 18% 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Disagree Agree
strongly strongly
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)20
Escapism via Christmas ads
This year, amid a lot of unsettling news, adverts (plus the growing need for some
escapism) have helped us get back on track in terms of Christmas excitement
‘The Christmas ads are providing a welcome escape I'm a big fan of Christmas. I love everything about it
from all the grim news at the moment’ and always look forward to it
Now a nudge ahead
Behind
last
month
7% 7% 23% 38% 26% 49% 47% 54% 55%
Disagree Agree October November
strongly strongly
2018 2019
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)21
Escapism via Christmas ads
Confirmation bias ensures that those groups most primed to like Christmas
find themselves enjoying adverts the most
‘Christmas adverts are a great way to be reminded of the true
meaning of Christmas’ For me Christmas is the most
important part of the year. It’s
the few days when I get
everyone home and I love it.
Boris Johnson is not going to
get in the way of me enjoying
this!
It’s such hard work but it’s so
important for the children
that I do it. Sometimes I’m
nearly in tears with
exhaustion but seeing their
faces on Christmas day
makes it all worthwhile
57% 60% 70% 60% 70% 58%
Single Settling down Kids at home Empty nester Women Men
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)22
Escapism via Christmas ads
It’s worth noting the undercurrent of resentment about excessive spend on
festive adverts – especially amongst older shoppers
‘I don't like the way companies spend so much on
their Christmas adverts’
% Agreeing by age-group
37% 38% 38% 46% 48%
13% 16% 31% 23% 18% 18-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+
Disagree Agree I read the other day that the John Lewis advert
strongly strongly cost £7m to make. That’s a lot of money they
could pay to have more people serving you
Source:
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)23 TV still key in driving ad awareness – clever brands using tactics that help us lay down memories
24
TV felt to drive recall
The number ‘definitely aware’ of each advert varied hugely – JL & Partners,
Walkers and Amazon leading the field, Selfridges and Boots a long way behind
Prompted awareness of each advert
12%
24% 12%
21%
13% 11%
22% 15%
21%
29% 28% 19% 17%
31% 18% 19%
28% 31%
29% 21%
26% 65%
19% 54% 59%
51% 51% 54%
46% 48%
40% 40% 43%
33% 34% 35% 36%
13% 24% 25% 26% 26%
18% 21% 21%
5%
JL & Partners
Boots
TK Maxx
Iceland
Aldi
JD Sports
Argos
Currys PC World
Amazon
Ikea
Walkers
Visa
Very
M&S Clothing
M&S Food
Debenhams
Matalan
Lidl
Asda
Selfridges
Tesco
Halfords
Sainsburys
Definitely remember it Feels very familiar
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)25
TV felt to drive recall
Despite a massive switch in spend to digital media, TV is still the driving force
behind advertising awareness levels
% Awareness of each advert vs. source of awareness
Very strong link between advert and TV Weaker relationship between other elements
60% 65%
JL & Partners
55% R² = 0.8291 Argos Iceland R² = 0.3099
JL & Partners 60%
Aldi
50% Lidl Amazon
M&S Food Walkers 55%
45% Visa
Tesco Very 50%
40% Asda Amazon
Ikea Aldi
M&S clothing 45% Iceland
35% Sainsburys Matalan
TK Maxx Matalan 40% Asda
30% JD Sports Halfords
% Seen Debenhams
% Seen 35% Ikea
25% Boots JD Sports S'burys M&S Food
each Currys PC World each Currys Halfords Argos
30% Walkers
advert 20% Boots advert PC Lidl
Debs Tesco Very Visa
on TV 15% elsewhere 25% World TK Maxx
M&S clothing
10% 20%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Overall awareness of each advert Overall awareness of each advert
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)26
Clever brands build memory structures
Several tactics have been used to create standout – distinctive assets, owning a
key topic, a link with famous people and, of course, emotional connection
Leveraging assets already associated with the brand Being known for the topic
Amazon and Denise Van Halfords and Iceland and
the smile Outen and bikes frozen foods
Matalan
Our brains notice
things which tap
into existing
Linking with a superstar memory
But ads which
Mariah Carey Aldi and structures
and Walkers Robbie
provoke
Crisps Williams emotional
connections also
build memories
(because they’re
processed on the
same lobe of brain)
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)27
Clever brands build memory structures
In terms of social media, JL & Partners is the clear winner – a position earned
by several years of iconic Xmas ads as well as a strong 2019 execution
% Have seen each advert on social media
JL & Partners 32% • John Lewis defined the era of ‘big Christmas
Amazon 22%
Aldi 20% adverts’
Matalan 18%
Walkers 18% • Its launch is eagerly awaited – many seeking
Iceland 16% it out as soon as they know it’s out
Boots 15%
Asda 14% • Creates lots of surrounding chatter about
Tesco 13%
whether it’s up to previous standards
Visa 13%
Lidl 13%
M&S Food 12%
Sainsburys 12%
JD Sports 12%
Debenhams 11%
M&S clothing 11%
Halfords 11%
Very 11%
Argos 11%
Currys PC World 9%
TK Maxx 9%
Ikea 9%
Selfridges 5%
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)28
Clever brands build memory structures
Several brands lead the way in using their own channels to spread the message
– most common tactic being the creation of product lines that tie in with ads
% Seen something relating to advert in-store or on brand’s website
Iceland 24% All creating special merchandise based on the campaign
Aldi 22%
John Lewis 22%
and carrying the comms into store and online
Lidl 20%
Boots 19%
JD Sports 18%
Amazon 18%
Asda 17%
M&S Food 17%
Halfords 17%
TK Maxx 16%
Matalan 15%
Tesco 15%
M&S main 15%
Argos 15%
Ikea 15%
Debenhams 14%
Currys PC World 14%
Sainsburys 13%
Walkers 12%
Very 12%
Visa 8%
Selfridges 3%
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: 3,817 (Nov 2019)29 JLP triumphs along with others who take viewers on an emotional journey through highs and lows
30
Visionaries tell stories
Here’s our Boom! framework, which helps brands understand the impact of
their comms – it’s formed by combining feel-good and memorability scores
New
Memories
Disruptor Visionary
• Have standout, feel different • Play to your dreams
(in a good or bad way) • Surprise you in a good way
• Exceed your expectations
Lower High
feel- feel-
good Regular Favourite good
• Sell you products, rather • Feel familiar - stick to
than dreams known (and popular)
• Easily overlooked – we narratives
remember stories and • Meet your expectations
these don’t tell them but lack of newness can
mean they’re forgotten
Established
Memories
Source
Kokoro Global31
Visionaries tell stories
And here’s where 2019’s adverts sit, with JL & Partners dominating the desirable
Visionary territory, but Argos, Sainsbury’s, Very and Aldi also featuring
New
Memories
Disruptor Visionary
Lower High
feel- feel-
good good
Regular Favourite
Established
Memories
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)32
Visionaries tell stories
Loved or not, the standout nature of Disruptor adverts provokes engagement
% YouTube views by advert (millions)
Visionary Favourite Disruptor Regular
Average = 5.0 Average = 0.3 Average = 2.4 Average = 0.3
(0.8 without
Selfridges)
9.8 8.7 5.9 3.2 2.2 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.8 2.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)33
Visionaries tell stories
Visionary adverts are the richest in terms of emotional connection – as a group
they over-index in three of our 5Drivers
The Drivers they
play to…
Visionary adverts
Immersion Belonging Freedom
“Make time fly “Make me feel “Energise me by
by absorbing connected to opening my eyes
me in your others” to new things”
world””
Feelings consumers are
drawn to at Christmas
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)34
Visionaries tell stories
These adverts create joy by telling fresh versions of stories we know and love
instinctively
The outsider brought in The unbreakable bond of family The victim triumphs over evil
John Lewis & Partners
Sainsbury’s
Argos
Visa
Very
Source
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)35 Visionaries tell stories However, their real power lies in the way they create emotional high and lows – often through a sense of jeopardy i.e. there’s lots to win or lose John Lewis & Partners Very Sainsbury’s Argos After a series of unfortunate events, Isolated neighbour has only a dog Young boy banished into the wild for Dad struggles for inspiration for his Edgar is the outcast for a friend a crime he didn’t commit daughter’s Christmas gift After completing a Christmas ritual, Community pulls together to create a He returns to spread Xmas joy and Dad finds just the right thing and he’s brought into the fold magical Christmas moment overturn injustice they go on an electrifying journey Source Christmas Unwrapped Survey Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)
36 Most other ads suffer by the missing the essence of Christmas or by being overly ‘feel good’ rather than ‘feel moved’
37
Others sell things
The adverts sat in ‘Favourite’ territory tell a pleasant immersive story of
Christmas but lack the emotional intensity to play strongly to other emotions
The Drivers
they play to…
Favourite adverts
Immersion
“Make time fly
by absorbing
me in your
world””
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)38 Others sell things The overall takeout is that ‘we make Christmas that bit better’ but there’s little to be won/lost in these storylines and thus less emotion and memorability Amazon and happy smiling Tesco product bringing seasonal cheer across Asda generally spreading festive packages from start to finish the last 100 years spirit M&S offering you everything you Lidl creating a ‘big Christmas at Lidl Iceland giving you the perfect need for a delicious Christmas prices’ (frozen) meal together Christmas Unwrapped Survey Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)
39 Others sell things The flatter emotional temperature is shown here with the Asda execution – the girl suffering none of the major setbacks Edgar overcomes Seeing northern lights and picture of grandad She sets up a ‘dream catcher’ and captures She starts sharing the magic reminds her of a Christmas story he told some Christmas spirit in a bottle And works her way around the Slightly sad about not having any Brother (who had doubted her) now believes it neighbourhood transforming Christmas magic herself and spreads a bit of magic on her Christmas Unwrapped Survey Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)
40
Others sell things
And, in contrast, here is the Edgar story where a series of low moments are
resolved in the final triumphant scene
Edgar’s excitement leads to a melted snowman Edgar’s excitement leads to a melted frozen Edgar excitement sets a garland alight
pond
The garland fire spreads to the tree Edgar puts himself in exile Only in the last frame does Edgar come good
find acceptance
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)41
Others sell things
Regular ads typically put all the emphasis on Control by using rather ‘thin’
stories that are all about selling products not dreams
The Drivers
they play to…
Boots curates ranges which make Debenhams has WOW gifts for
gifting simple every type of person
Regular adverts
Halfords sells bikes (with a Currys PC World gives you
discount off them!) money off if you spend lots
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)42
Others sell things
Hypedown executions ‘free’ themselves from the typical Christmas narratives –
but by doing this, they miss some important emotional notes
The Drivers …which is at odds with
they play to… what many want to feel
Most wanted feeling over Christmas
Hypedown adverts
Control Desire Belonging Immersion Freedom
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)43
Others sell things
Unsurprisingly, these generate a marmite response – a few fans but a bigger
groups almost instantly rejecting them
The use of rap music on several of Relatively little red, gold and glowing colours High on cool, low on warmth
the executions
But they do have fans…
Loved it the M&S It was totally
jumpers ad. I saw different using a
a few items I skier and it made
considered buying me remember TK
and the music and Maxx for possible
choreography Christmas presents
really stick in your
Quirkiness which shades into ‘weird’ mind
Mocking the rituals many fondly welcome
Christmas Unwrapped Survey
Base: c.160 per ad (Nov 2019)Report 3 released
on 13 Dec
Reality replaces
dreams
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