September 17 2021 Daily Forex Analysis - Finveo
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
September 17 2021 Daily Forex Analysis
Daily News
• The theme of uncertainty in the markets stands out due to China's Evergrande intervention, the assessments regarding the Fed's withdrawal of incentives, and
the critical hour when stocks, futures stock indices and stock indices in the U.S will fill up at the same time. Concerns stemming from Evergrande in China, data
released in the U.S, “triple witching” and uncertainty about how the Fed will proceed in asset purchases are the headlines of the markets. Wall Street indices
had mixed closes on Thursday. U.S indices are slightly up in futures this morning. Asian stocks are rising outside of Australia. MSCI All Countries Index is
preparing to close its second consecutive week with a decline. Retail sales and the Philadelphia Fed index data announced on Thursday exceeded the forecasts,
while hopes for a recovery in the U.S economy drove the dollar to its highest level in three weeks on the same day. Today, stocks, stock futures and stock index
options will expire simultaneously in the U.S. Known as "triple witching," this happens four times a year: on the third Friday of March, June, September, and
December. On such a day, while investors are burdened with hedge transactions, it is wondered whether Wall Street indices can continue their record-breaking
rallies. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Strategists calculate that approximately $3.4 trillion of stock options will expire today.
• U.S. retail sales unexpectedly increased in August, rising 0.7% from the previous month despite expectations of a 0.8% fall, while a business sentiment survey
by the Philadelphia Fed also showed a big improvement. "Yesterday's data were pretty strong across the board," said Yujiro Goto, chief currency strategist at
Nomura Securities. "The markets had been worried that consumption would be weak in August because of the Delta variant. But retail sales were surprisingly
strong." The figures helped to curb cautious views on the U.S. economy after a tame consumer inflation reading and soft job growth data earlier this month,
and revived expectations for an early Fed tapering.The dollar held near three-week highs against a basket of major currencies on Friday after a raft of strong
U.S. economic data rekindled expectations of an earlier policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
• Dow futures gained 33 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded mildly higher. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 63
points, after being down as much as 274 points at its low. The S&P 500 fell 0.16%. The Nasdaq Composite was the outperformer, rising 0.13% as Netflix,
Microsoft and Amazon all closed in the green. Despite the latest data from China and Europe showing signs of slowdown, the relatively good performance of
the US in August supports the dollar. The dollar is rising in global markets, ahead of the retail sales announced today, which increased in August after the
contraction in July, a limited increase in weekly jobless claims and the upcoming FOMC meeting .The preliminary reading for September consumer sentiment in
the US, which we will see in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index , is expected to drop to 72 from 70.3 points in August.
• EUR/USD licks its wounds around 1.1770, up 0.05% intraday while consolidating the previous day’s fall, the heaviest in a
month. That said, the U.S dollar pullback amid an inactive session could be linked to the currency major’s rebound heading
EUR/USD into Friday’s European session. U.S Dollar Index (DXY) grinds higher around 92.85, steady of late, following that biggest daily
jump in since mid-August. The greenback gauge rallied Thursday after the U.S Retail Sales for August and Philadelphia Fed
Manufacturing Index for September renewed Fed tapering concerns. The U.S Retail Sales MoM jumped to the highest in five
months while crossing expectations of -0.8% with +0.7% figures. Further, the Philly Fed gauge also rose strongly to 30.7
versus 19 forecast and 19.4 prior, marking the strongest figures in three months. On the other hand, the UK Financial Times
(FT) news that European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economic Philip Lane hints at a faster inflation run-up triggered the Euro
uptick yesterday but was rejected by the ECB afterward.
• Resistance: 1,1782– 1,1810 - 1,1850
• Support: 1,1750 – 1,1725 - 1,1705
• GBP/USD edges lower on Friday morning following the previous session’s downside momentum. The pair tried to move
above 1.3850 in the American session but slide below 1.3750 after higher-than-expected U.S Retail sales data released on
GBP/USD Thursday. The movement in GBP/USD is primarily driven by the overnight gains in the greenback. Buoyed by the better-than-
expected economic data and the concerns about the rapid increase of the Delta variant of coronavirus cases globally kept
USD in demand owing to its safe-haven appeal. Furthermore, the growing expectations that Fed should begin tapering in
November also add to the attractiveness of the greenback. As per the latest Reuters opinion poll, nearly three-quarters of
the economists looking at the possibility of the start of the tapering as soon as November.
• Resistance: 1,3800 – 1,3850 - 1,3895
• Support: 1,3765 – 1,3730 - 1,3680
• Gold was up on Friday morning in Asia but was headed towards a second weekly loss. The focus is now on a U.S. Federal
XAU/USD Reserve policy decision that could provide clues on when asset tapering will begin. Gold futures edged up 0.12% to
$1,758.75. Gold fell as much as 2.7% on Thursday and has dropped 1.8% so far in the past week. Market participants now
look forward to the release of the Prelim Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with the U.S bond yields, might
influence the USD price dynamics. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might produce some trading
opportunities around gold as the focus now shifts to next week's crucial FOMC meeting
• Resistance: 1770 $ - 1783 $ - 1794 $
• Support: 1752 $ - 1739 $ - 1724 $
• Oil prices fell on Friday as more supply came back online in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico following two hurricanes, but both
benchmark contracts are on track to post weekly gains of around 4% as the recovery in output is seen lagging demand. Brent
BRENTOIL crude futures fell 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $75.50 a barrel, giving up most of the previous session's 21 cent gain. U.S. West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were 18 cents, or 0.3%, lower at $72.43 a barrel, after settling unchanged on Thursday. "Oil
prices are slightly softer as offshore U.S. production continues to slowly return and as return of normal across large parts of
Asia hit some road bumps and as some countries still struggle to contain the delta variant spread," said Edward Moya, senior
market analyst at OANDA.
• Resistance: 76,13 $ - 76,73 $ - 77,38 $
• Support: 75,13 $ - 74,35 $ - 73,60 $
• The S&P 500 trimmed some losses Thursday, even as an unexpected rise in monthly retail sales renewed expectations for the
Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy with just days to go until the U.S. central bank's meeting next week. The S&P 500
S&P500 fell 0.16%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.18%, or 63 points, the Nasdaq gained 0.13%. “The Treasury curve bear
steepened and the S&P500 fell presumably on the good news is bad for Fed expectations logic,” Scotiabank said in a note.
The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales rose 0.7% last month. That confounded economists’ forecast for a
0.8% decline. The retail sales control group – which has a larger impact on U.S. GDP – climbed 2.5% topping expectations for a
0.1% decrease.
• Resistance: 4,493 – 4,517 – 4,539
• Support: 4,459 – 4,435 – 4,412Daily Stock News • Beyond Meat Inc (NASDAQ: BYND), Shares of Beyond Meat found themselves under pressure after Piper Sandler cut its price target for the stock from $120 to $95. Analysts stated that the company’s retail momentum lagged analyst expectations which warranted a lower target price. Shares of Beyond Meat have been declining since early July when the stock failed to settle above the $160 level. The most recent earnings report beat analyst estimates on revenue but missed them on earnings. This report failed to provide support to the stock as the market was disappointed with the company’s third-quarter guidance. At that time, Beyond Meat expected to report third-quarter revenue of $120 million – $140 million while analysts believed that the company’s third-quarter revenue would exceed $150 million. As the latest analyst action shows, worries about the third-quarter revenue persist and continue to put pressure on the stock. (Negative) • Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: EA) seemed to recoup at least some of its losses on Wednesday after confirming a slight delay in the highly anticipated Battlefield 2042 game launch. “We have made the decision to delay the launch of Battlefield 2042. The game will now be released worldwide on November 19, 2021. The previous plan was for October 22. The stock rose 1.8% on Thursday. The company's announcement calmed both investors and fans. While social media was awash with claims that the launch could be delayed to next year, it had lost about 6% in the previous session. The company blamed the pandemic for the delay, which prevented the team from returning to the studio. He said the team is putting "some finishing touches to the experience" and that open beta updates are due later this month. Battlefield 2042 is a multiplayer game with the theme that the US and Russia are on the brink of war as climate change leads to intense competition for scarce resources. (Positive) • Renault SA (PA:RENA), European stock markets are expected to open marginally higher Friday, with Renault in the spotlight, but concerns surrounding China, one of the world’s main growth drivers, remain. The DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.1% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.5% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.1%. French car giant Renault will be in focus Friday, helping the CAC 40 outperform, after it announced late Thursday that it would cut up to 2,000 engineering and support jobs in France as it shifts into electric cars and hires in different positions.(Positive)
Currency Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
EURUSD 1,1769 0,03 -0,37 -3,65
GBPUSD 1,3809 0,11 -0,21 1,02
USDJPY 109,88 -0,14 0,05 -6,03
USDCHF 0,927 0,09 -1,00 -4,50
EURGBP 0,8523 0,09 0,18 4,86
INDEX FUTURE Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
SPA INDEX 4455,3 -0,20 0,14 19,88
GXA INDEX 15726 0,42 0,79 14,49
DMA INDEX 34666 0,12 0,51 14,67
Commodities Last Daily Change (%) Weekly Change (%) YTD Change (%)
GC1 Comdty 1758,5 0,22 -1,75 -7,21
XAUUSD Curncy 1761,11 0,41 -1,49 -7,24
CLA Comdty 72,45 -0,22 3,92 50,91
CO1 Comdty 75,52 -0,20 3,57 45,79
Time Cur. Event
08:00 GBP Retail - Core Retail Sales
10:00 EUR Current Account
11:00 EUR CPI - Core CPI
16:00 USD Michigan Consumer SentimentYou can also read
