SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT - CITY OF SUMMERSIDE CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT - CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE - PIEVC
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CITY OF SUMMERSIDE SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE SUMMERSIDE, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, CANADA WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 DATE: 28 OCTOBER 2019 CONFIDENTIAL
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE SUMMERSIDE, PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND, CANADA CONFIDENTIAL WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 DATE: 28 OCTOBER 2019 REPORT (FINAL VERSION) WSP CANADA INC. 11TH FLOOR 1600 RENÉ-LÉVESQUE BLVD WEST MONTRÉAL, QC H3H 1P9 CANADA T: +1-514-340-0046 F: +1-514-340-1337 WSP.COM
QUALITY MANAGEMENT
VERSION DATE DESCRIPTION
00 October 11, 2019 Preliminary version for client’s approval
01 October 18, 2019 Final version considering client’s comments
02 October 28, 2019 Final version considering last comments
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE I
ATTESTATION OF COMPLETENESS We undersigned attest that this Resilience Assessment was undertaken using recognized assessment tools and approaches (Engineers Canada PIEVC Protocol) and complies with the General Guidance and any relevant sector- specific technical guidance issues by Infrastructure Canada for use under the Climate Lens. The Project Assessment was made possible due to Engineers Canada’s granting of permission to use the Protocol. PREPARED BY Yann Chavaillaz, Ph.D. Climate Change Specialist Ena Ristic, B.Sc., MCC Climate Change Specialist Jean-Philippe Martin, Ph.D. Climate Change Specialist REVIEWED BY Elise Paré, P.Eng. Climate Resilience Assessment Qualified Professional Engineers and Geoscientists British Columbia Member #31536 Reference to mention: WSP. 2019. Summerside Solar and Storage Integration Project, Climate Lens Assessment – Climate Change resilience, Summerside, Prince Edward Island, Canada. Report produced for City of Summerside. WSP Ref.: 191- 11112-00. 55 pages. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE III
WSP Canada Inc. (“WSP”) prepared this report solely for the use of the intended recipient, the City of Summerside, in accordance with the professional services agreement between the parties. In the event a contract has not been executed, the parties agree that the WSP General Terms for Consultant shall govern their business relationship which was provided to you prior to the preparation of this report. The report is intended to be used in its entirety. No excerpts may be taken to be representative of the findings in the assessment. The conclusions presented in this report are based on work performed by trained, professional and technical staff, in accordance with their reasonable interpretation of current and accepted engineering and scientific practices at the time the work was performed. The content and opinions contained in the present report are based on the observations and/or information available to WSP at the time of preparation, using investigation techniques and engineering analysis methods consistent with those ordinarily exercised by WSP and other engineering/scientific practitioners working under similar conditions, and subject to the same time, financial and physical constraints applicable to this project. WSP disclaims any obligation to update this report if, after the date of this report, any conditions appear to differ significantly from those presented in this report; however, WSP reserves the right to amend or supplement this report based on additional information, documentation or evidence. WSP makes no other representations whatsoever concerning the legal significance of its findings. The intended recipient is solely responsible for the disclosure of any information contained in this report. If a third party makes use of, relies on, or makes decisions in accordance with this report, said third party is solely responsible for such use, reliance or decisions. WSP does not accept responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions taken by said third party based on this report. WSP has provided services to the intended recipient in accordance with the professional services agreement between the parties and in a manner consistent with that degree of care, skill and diligence normally provided by members of the same profession performing the same or comparable services in respect of projects of a similar nature in similar circumstances. It is understood and agreed by WSP and the recipient of this report that WSP provides no warranty, express or implied, of any kind. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, it is agreed and understood by WSP and the recipient of this report that WSP makes no representation or warranty whatsoever as to the sufficiency of its scope of work for the purpose sought by the recipient of this report. In preparing this report, WSP has relied in good faith on information provided by others, as noted in the report. WSP has reasonably assumed that the information provided is correct and WSP is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of such information. Benchmark and elevations used in this report are primarily to establish relative elevation differences between the specific testing and/or sampling locations and should not be used for other purposes, such as grading, excavating, construction, planning, development, etc. Design recommendations given in this report are applicable only to the project and areas as described in the text and then only if constructed in accordance with the details stated in this report. The comments made in this report on potential construction issues and possible methods are intended only for the guidance of the designer. The number of testing and/or sampling locations may not be sufficient to determine all the factors that may affect construction methods and costs. We accept no responsibility for any decisions made or actions taken as a result of this report unless we are specifically advised of and participate in such action, in which case our responsibility will be as agreed to at that time. The original of this digital file will be kept by WSP for a period of not less than 10 years. As the digital file transmitted to the intended recipient is no longer under the control of WSP, its integrity cannot be assured. As such, WSP does not guarantee any modifications made to this digital file subsequent to its transmission to the intended recipient. This limitations statement is considered an integral part of this report. WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT IV CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE
CLIENT CITY OF SUMMERSIDE Director of Municipal Services Greg Gaudet, P.Eng. Director of Economic Development Mike Thususka, BBA Development Manager Katherine Park, RPP, MCIP (Samsung Renewable Energy Inc.) Senior Manager Sean Kim, MBA (Samsung Renewable Energy Inc.) PRODUCTION TEAM WSP CANADA INC. (WSP) Project Manager Wade Enman, P.Eng. Climate Change Resilience Assessment Yann Chavaillaz, Ph.D. Climate Change Resilience Assessment Ena Ristic, B.Sc., MCC Climate Change Resilience Assessment Jean-Philippe Martin, Ph.D. Climate Change Resilience QA/QC Elise Paré, P.Eng. Technical Advisory Solar Power Alexandre Pépin-Ross, P.Eng. Technical Advisory Solar Power Simon Pelchat, P.Eng. Editor Ann Rivest CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE V
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PROJECT OVERVIEW The City of Summerside is working with Samsung Renewable Energy to develop a community microgrid connected to the City’s distribution system. The microgrid combines 21 MWac/26 MWdc of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation with a 10 MW/20MWh battery system. The project is expected to generate 33,000 MWh per year in solar PV energy and reduce the City’s reliance on New Brunswick’s power grid from 58.2% to 37.4%, allowing Summerside to achieve a level of 62% of green energy for all its electricity needs. More than 50% of the energy generated will indeed be used by the City’s assets. The solar farm will be located on an 80-acre flat terrain west of Summerside. It will consist in approximately 67,000 PV modules, and will include an energy storage system on the northeastern corner of the project area. The point of interconnection is at Summerside’s electric distribution station, located at the intersection of King Street and Harvard Street, approximately 2.5 km from the solar farm. The interconnection will consist of an overhead transmission line at 34.5 kV with 336 wiring. Construction is projected to be complete by December 2020, provided sufficient funding is in place by 2019. Commissioning and power generation is anticipated to begin by January 2021. Batteries have a lifecycle of 20 years, and solar panels 35 years. With this information, WSP’s consulting team identified the following time horizons for the assessment: ─ 2040 for storage battery materials and protection; ─ 2060 for the solar panel infrastructure. ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY Infrastructure Canada produced the Climate Lens Guidance (2018) document to assist project proponents with the completion of the Climate Lens Assessments with the goal of incorporating climate change resilience into Canadian infrastructure projects and incentivizing behavioural change with respect to climate change. The Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Protocol (“Protocol”) developed by Engineers Canada, has been designed to allow consistent and accurate assessments of infrastructure vulnerability to be performed and is an approved methodology for completing Climate Resilience Assessments. Using the five steps laid out in the Protocol, this report will define the potential vulnerabilities of the infrastructure projected for the Summerside Solar and Storage Integration Project and assess how climate change may impact it, provide data to support these definitions, and assess the risk associated with the Project. RISK ASSESSMENT The specific infrastructure and climate parameter interactions were identified using the PIEVC Protocol Steps One and Two. Historical climate data were reviewed, past extreme climate events researched, and climate change projections developed for the 2040s and 2060s timeframe, which corresponds with the useful life of the infrastructure. Infrastructure thresholds above which, or below which, it was deemed the infrastructure performance could be affected were developed through professional judgement based on historic events and current design codes and standards. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE VII
Through an initial screening process regarding the potential for climate/infrastructure interactions, the following
climate parameters were carried out during Step Three of the Protocol, completing the risk assessment:
─ Snow accumulation;
─ Freezing rain;
─ Extreme precipitation as rain;
─ Sea level rise;
─ Annual coldest temperature;
─ Annual warmest temperature;
─ Wind and hurricanes;
─ Cooling degree days;
─ Heating degree days;
─ Frost depth line;
─ Number of winter days per year (below -5°C);
─ Solar radiation including cloud cover.
Probability scores were assigned to each parameter representing the probability that a specific climate parameter will
change over the time horizon of the assessment, triggering the infrastructure threshold.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
The assessment applied the best available climate data and projections, historical weather data, and industry
standards to assess the vulnerabilities of the Project to changes in climate and extreme weather for the lifetime of the
assets. Control measures already incorporated into the design or planned operations of the Project were identified
and their effectiveness at mitigating each risk was evaluated in one step, based on probability and severity of
interactions.
By using available data, scientific articles and the professional judgment of WSP’s consulting and advisory team, 76
climate-infrastructure interactions were identified. Forty-three interactions correspond to a low risk (36).
Amongst the medium risks identified, the highest risks are related to four factors:
─ Sea level rise flooding the site and overloading the drainage system;
─ Extremely warm temperatures for electrical equipment during summer;
─ Substantial precipitation such as snow, freezing rain, and ice accumulation that may increase structural loads on
the solar panels;
─ Extreme rain events that may infiltrate into the energy storage system and overload the drainage system.
WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE
WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT
VIII CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCEBased on this assessment with no high risks identified, the Project is considered to have a sufficient level of resilience to climate and weather-related risks for the longest time horizon assessed (35 years). Undertaking the recommendations highlighted in this report will significantly improve the level of resilience of the infrastructure project. The final design phase has not yet been completed, and the conclusion of this Climate Resilience Assessment is based on available information at the completion of the report. All risks identified in this report can be mitigated through appropriate final design. Thus, we recommend to the City of Summerside and to the design team to consider updating the level of some key risks identified as new information becomes available (climate projections and local conditions), and as Project design changes get more definitive. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE IX
1 INTRODUCTION .................................................. 1
TABLE OF 1.1 Background.......................................................................... 1
1.2 Approach .............................................................................. 2
CONTENTS 1.3 Project team ......................................................................... 7
2 STEP ONE – PROJECT DEFINITION ................. 9
2.1 Infrastructure ....................................................................... 9
2.2 Climate parameters ............................................................. 9
2.3 Time horizon ...................................................................... 12
2.4 Geography.......................................................................... 13
2.5 Jurisdictional considerations .......................................... 15
2.6 Site visits ............................................................................ 15
2.7 Assessment of data sufficiency....................................... 15
3 STEP TWO – DATA GATHERING AND
SUFFICIENCY ................................................... 17
3.1 Infrastructure components ............................................... 17
3.2 Time horizon for the assessment .................................... 18
3.3 Detailed geography ........................................................... 18
3.4 Specific jurisdictional considerations ............................ 19
3.5 Other potential changes ................................................... 19
3.6 Climate baseline ................................................................ 20
3.7 Future climate conditions ................................................. 23
3.8 Infrastructure threshold values ....................................... 26
3.9 Potential cumulative or synergistic effects .................... 28
3.10 Changing-climate probabilty scores ............................... 29
3.11 Assessment of data sufficiency....................................... 32
4 STEP THREE – RISK ASSESSMENT ............... 35
4.1 Risk definition and preliminary verification ................... 35
4.2 Vulnerability assessment ................................................. 36
4.3 Inconceivable interactions ............................................... 37
4.4 Risk profile ......................................................................... 38
4.5 Assessment of data sufficiency....................................... 46
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE XI4.6 Summary of risk profile and recommendations ............. 47
5 STEP FIVE – RECOMMENDATIONS AND
CONCLUSIONS ................................................. 51
5.1 Assumptions and limitations ........................................... 51
5.2 Specific recommendations ............................................... 51
5.3 Conclusions ....................................................................... 53
6 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................ 55
FIGURES
FIGURE 1 PIEVC ENGINEERING PROTOCOL
PROCESS .............................................................. 2
FIGURE 2 PROJECT DEFINITION PROCESS ....................... 3
FIGURE 3 STEP TWO OF THE PIEVC PROTOCOL .............. 4
FIGURE 4 STEP THREE OF THE PIEVC PROTOCOL .......... 5
FIGURE 5 STEP FIVE OF THE PIEVC PROTOCOL .............. 6
FIGURE 6 TOPOGRAPHY OF THE AREA (LOCATION
OF THE CONSTRUCTION SITE IS THE
RED CIRCLE) ....................................................... 13
FIGURE 7 DEMARCATION OF THE CONSTRUCTION
SITE ...................................................................... 14
FIGURE 8 PROPOSED ROUTE OF OVERHEAD
TRANSMISSION LINE ......................................... 14
FIGURE 9 EVOLUTION OF GLOBAL
ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS OF
GREENHOUSE GASES UNDER
DIFFERENT RCP SCENARIOS ........................... 24
TABLES
TABLE 1 RELEVANT CLIMATE PARAMETERS FOR
THE SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND
STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT ................. 10
TABLE 2 DESIGN LIFE OF EACH
INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENT .................... 18
TABLE 3 HISTORICAL MEAN VALUES OF CLIMATE
PARAMETERS ..................................................... 20
TABLE 4 HISTORICAL EXTREME WEATHER
EVENTS................................................................ 21
TABLE 5 HISTORICAL CLIMATE TRENDS FOR
EACH PARAMETER IDENTIFIED ....................... 21
TABLE 6 LIST OF THRESHOLDS IDENTIFIED TO
THE SUMMERSIDE PROJECT ........................... 27
TABLE 7 PROBABILITY SCORE DEFINITIONS ................ 29
WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE
WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT
XII CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCETABLE 8 PROBABILITY SCORES FOR EACH
THRESHOLD VALUE IDENTIFIED ...................... 30
TABLE 9 RISK EVALUATION GRID OF THE PIEVC
PROTOCOL .......................................................... 35
TABLE 10 DEFINITION OF SEVERITY SCORES ................ 36
TABLE 11 RESULTS OF THE YES/NO ANALYSIS .............. 37
TABLE 12 RISK PROFILE OF THE SUMMERSIDE
SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION
PROJECT ............................................................. 39
TABLE 13 SUMMARY OF MODERATE RISKS AND
APPROPRIATE RECOMMENDATION
TYPES .................................................................. 48
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE XIII1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 BACKGROUND The City of Summerside is a municipality located on the western side of Prince Edward Island (PEI) at the edge of the Northumberland Strait. According to Statistics Canada, the City has a population of 14,829, and is the second largest city in PEI and the primary service centre for the western part of the island. The City of Summerside is the only municipality of PEI to have its own electrical network. A wind farm has been operational since 2009 and is producing 25% of the electricity required by the City on an average day. The Summerside Utility is performing purchasing, distribution, and generation of electricity to support the community. To further develop its capacity to produce renewable energy, the City of Summerside plans to develop a solar PV microgrid and battery storage project in the western part of the City in partnership with Samsung Renewable Energy. This report forms the resilience component of the Climate Lens Assessment as a requirement of the Infrastructure Canada grant funding request. 1.1.1 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT WSP was retained by the City of Summerside to carry out the Climate Lens Assessment of the Summerside Solar and Storage Integration Project. The Climate Lens Assessment was created by Infrastructure Canada to help address climate change impacts and GHG emissions of infrastructure projects in Canada. By incorporating climate considerations during the planning and design of infrastructure projects, the Climate Lens is intended to help assess the impact of projects, influence the design process, and inform funding decisions. The effort is an essential part of the federal and provincial governments’ strategy to achieving Canada’s mid-century goals of a clean growth, low-carbon economy, and building resilient communities. The Climate Lens Assessment consists of two parts: ─ A Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mitigation Assessment; ─ A Climate Resilience Assessment. This report provides the Climate Resilience Assessment using Engineers Canada’s Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Protocol. This Protocol provides clear guidance to engineers and geoscientists to support the design, construction, maintenance, and regulation of resilient public infrastructure in Canada, and to address the risks of a changing climate. It identifies highly vulnerable infrastructure and facilitates better decision- making in both current and future infrastructure projects. 1.1.2 PROJECT OVERVIEW The City of Summerside is working with Samsung Renewable Energy to develop a community microgrid connected to the City’s distribution system. The microgrid combines 21 MWac/26 MWdc of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation with a 10 MW/20MWh battery system. The project is expected to generate 33,000 MWh per year in solar PV energy and reduce the City’s reliance on New Brunswick’s power grid from 58.2% to 37.4%, allowing Summerside to achieve a level of 62% of green energy for all its electricity needs. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 1
The solar farm will be located on an 80-acre flat terrain west of Summerside. It will consist of 67,184 PV modules. It will include an energy storage system on the northeastern corner of the project area. The point of interconnection is at Summerside’s electric distribution station, located at the intersection of King Street and Harvard Street, approximately 2.5 km from the solar farm. The interconnection will consist of an overhead transmission line at 34.5 kV with 336 wiring. The City’s vision for the future includes energy projects utilizing advanced technologies linking all aspects of community activities as the basis for developing a more resilient community. Once successfully developed, this project will lay the ground work for the City’s vision of upgrading the community’s energy infrastructure and power management system, including infrastructure for electrical vehicles and smart grid technologies as a next step, which will be the first of its kind in PEI. Prince Edward Island, as other Canadian provinces, faces unique threats caused by climate change including increases in temperature and precipitation, sea level rise, as well as an increase in storm surges, modification of solar irradiation, and more intense extreme weather events. Given the longevity of the infrastructure project and the role it plays in supporting the community and providing energy to the City with critical core services, it is important that this project be built with the future in mind. 1.2 APPROACH Several approaches are available to meet the Climate Lens Assessment requirements, which itself aligns with the ISO 31000 Risk Management Standard for assessing infrastructure risks associated with climate change. One of these approaches is the PIEVC Protocol, developed by Engineers Canada, which has been designed to allow consistent and accurate assessments of infrastructure vulnerability to be performed and meet the requirements of the Climate Lens Assessment. Figure 1 PIEVC Engineering Protocol Process WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT 2 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE
Using the five steps laid out in the Protocol, this report will define the potential vulnerabilities of the new solar farm infrastructure and assess how climate change may impact it, provide data to support these definitions, and assess the risks associated with these critical areas. The process flowchart for the PIEVC Protocol is presented in Figure 1with a brief description of each step in the text that follows. 1.2.1 STEP ONE: PROJECT DEFINITION This first step allows WSP to define the boundary conditions for the assessment. A general description of the infrastructure, location, historic climate, load, age, and other relevant factors is provided. Major documents and information sources are identified. Figure 2 Project Definition Process 1.2.2 STEP TWO: DATA GATHERING AND SUFFICIENCY In the second step of the PIEVC Engineering Protocol, WSP provides an in–depth definition for: ─ infrastructure components; ─ assessment time horizon; ─ detailed geography; ─ jurisdictional considerations; ─ other potential changes that may affect the infrastructure; ─ operations and maintenance guidelines; ─ relevant climate parameters; ─ infrastructure threshold values; ─ potential cumulative synergistic effects; CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 3
─ climate baseline; ─ climate change assumptions; ─ climate change probability scores; ─ data sufficiency. WSP has undertaken a data acquisition exercise including reviewing existing reports, and interviews and discussions with operators and maintenance staff regarding historical events that may not be documented. Professional judgement of WSP’s consulting and advisory teams is applied to consider information that is relevant to the scope of the study. WSP will also identify where the data is insufficient. Data insufficiency may arise from: ─ poor quality; ─ high levels of uncertainty; ─ lack of data altogether. This step further focuses the evaluation and starts to establish activities to infill poor quality or missing data. Figure 3 Step Two of the PIEVC Protocol 1.2.3 STEP THREE: RISK ASSESSMENT In the third step of the PIEVC Engineering Protocol, WSP evaluates the infrastructure’s response to changing climate events. This step of the Protocol uses a worksheet to examine and document the consequences of interactions between the infrastructure and climate change events. Initially, WSP’s consulting team establishes the infrastructure owner’s risk tolerance thresholds, and then the team ensures the owner understands the implications of these thresholds and agrees to these thresholds in the risk assessment. By ranking the probability of the interaction occurring (P) and the severity resulting from the interaction (S), a risk value (R) is calculated. WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT 4 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE
Then WSP’s advisory team reviews and confirms the following: ─ Climate parameters; ─ Infrastructure threshold values; ─ Climate probability scores; ─ Potential cumulative synergistic effects; ─ Infrastructure response. WSP then establishes the severity score of an outcome for each climate–infrastructure interaction occurring and calculates the risk scores (see Figure 4). Figure 4 Step Three of the PIEVC Protocol In this step, WSP then identifies areas where more information is needed to characterize the risk profile of the interaction between the infrastructure and climate change event. If professional judgement identifies a potential vulnerability that requires data that is not available to WSP’s consulting team, the Protocol requires that WSP’s teams return to Steps One and Two to gather the necessary data. Further studies are not required for low risk interactions and may by eliminated from further consideration in this step. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 5
1.2.4 STEP FOUR: ENGINEERING ANALYSIS Where there are potentially high risks and high uncertainties, the Engineering Analysis allows the practitioner to assess the impact of projected climate change loads on the infrastructure and capacity, when existing information does not provide a sufficient basis to evaluate vulnerability. Step Four of the Protocol takes a different perspective on the interaction and may include a load, versus capacity assessment, and detailed calculations for direct comparison. 1.2.5 STEP FIVE: RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS In the fifth step of the PIEVC Engineering Protocol, WSP reviews the previous four steps of the Protocol and provides recommendations for remedial engineering actions, monitoring activities, and management actions. The limitations of the vulnerability assessment are also identified in this step and recommendations for further studies are presented (see Figure 5). Figure 5 Step Five of the PIEVC Protocol WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT 6 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE
1.3 PROJECT TEAM CONSULTING TEAM – WSP ─ Yann Chavaillaz, Ph.D. – Climate Change Specialist; ─ Ena Ristic, B.Sc., MCC – Climate Change Specialist; ─ Jean-Philippe Martin, Ph.D. – Climate Change Specialist; ─ Elise Paré, P.Eng. – Climate Resilience QA/QC. PROJECT ADVISORY TEAM – WSP ─ Alexandre Pépin-Ross, P.Eng. – Solar Power; ─ Simon Pelchat, P.Eng. – Solar Power. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE ─ Greg Gaudet, P.Eng. – Director of Municipal Services; ─ Mike Thususka, BBA – Director of Economic Development. SAMSUNG RENEWABLE ENERGY ─ Katherine Park, RPP, MCIP – Development Manager; ─ Sean Kim, MBA – Senior Manager. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 7
2 STEP ONE – PROJECT DEFINITION The first step of the Protocol allows WSP’s consulting and advisory teams to define the boundary conditions for the assessment. A general description of the infrastructure, location, historic climate, load, age, and other relevant factors is provided. Major documents and information sources are identified. 2.1 INFRASTRUCTURE The City of Summerside is working with Samsung Renewable Energy to deploy a community microgrid connected to the City’s distribution system. The microgrid combines 21 MWac/26 MWdc of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation with a 10 MW/20MWh battery system. The project is expected to generate 33,000 MWh per year in solar PV energy and reduce the City’s reliance on New Brunswick’s power grid from 58.2% to 37.4%, allowing Summerside to achieve a level of 62% of green energy for all of its electricity needs. The solar farm will be located on an 80-acre terrain west of Summerside with an elevation of 2 to 22 meters above sea level. It will consist of approximately 67,000 PV modules. It will include an energy storage system (container) on the northeastern corner of the project area. The point of interconnection is at Summerside’s electric distribution station, located at the intersection of King Street and Harvard Street, approximately 2.5 km from the solar farm. The interconnection will consist of an overhead line at 34.5 kV with 336 wiring. The footprint of the project consists of the solar farm, the energy storage substation, access roads, powerlines, and the electric distribution station. 2.2 CLIMATE PARAMETERS The identification of climate hazards has been conducted by considering all the aspects of the project and all the possible impacts from which the infrastructure itself, its output, and its quality can suffer (Table 1). Aspects of the project highlighted below do not correspond to the infrastructure components defined in detail in the Section 3. These aspects are defined here with the aim of conducting a preliminary analysis to be completed and refined in the next steps of the assessment. Trends available from the Climate Atlas of Canada (www.climateatlas.ca), the Climate Data Portal for a Resilient Canada (www.climatedata.ca), and the IDF-CC tool (www.idf-cc-uwo.ca) were used as guidance to determine the relevant climate indicators. When projections for a specific indicator were not available, most recent scientific literature was the most reliable source of information about climate projections. Information provided by the client concerning the characteristics of the project was also considered. The following climate variables were initially determined to be relevant by WSP’s consultant and advisory teams in assessing vulnerability of the proposed infrastructure, considering standards for assessing solar farm climate risks (e.g. James Brown and Chubb, 2017): ─ Temperature; ─ Precipitation as rain; ─ Precipitation as snow; ─ Sea level; ─ Storm surge and tides; CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 9
─ Wind and hurricanes;
─ Clouds;
─ Solar radiation;
─ Dust and sand storms;
─ Hail and lighting.
Table 1 Relevant Climate Parameters for the Summerside Solar and Storage Integration Project
Climate Variable Climate Trend Load on Efficiency Base of Electricity Storage Access
Solar Panels of Solar Infrastructure Network Batteries Roads
Panels
Temperature Increase in mean
x x
temperature
Increase in the
intensity and
x x x x
frequency of heat
waves1
Increase in the
number of cooling x x
degree days
Decrease in the
intensity of cold x x x
snaps
Decrease in the
number of heating x x
degree days
Decrease in the
number of frost x x x x
days2
Changes in the
distribution of x x x x x x
freeze-thaw cycles
Changes in the
duration of periods
x x x
with negative
temperatures
1 A heat wave is defined as a period of at least 3 consecutive days reaching temperatures above 30°C.
2
A frost day is when the coldest temperature of the day is lower than 0°C. Under these conditions frost might form at ground level or on cold
surfaces.
WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE
WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT
10 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCEClimate Variable Climate Trend Load on Efficiency Base of Electricity Storage Access
Solar Panels of Solar Infrastructure Network Batteries Roads
Panels
Precipitation as Increase in annual
x
rain rainfall
Increase in the
intensity and
x
frequency of heavy
rain events
Precipitation as Decrease in annual
x x x x
snow snowfall
Near-term increase
and long-term
decrease in the
x x x x x
intensity and
frequency of snow
storms
Sea level Sea level rise x x x
Storm surges and Changes in the
tides frequency of storm x x x
surges
Increase in tide
x x
height
Wind Changes in wind
x x x
speeds
Changes in the
intensity and the
x x x
frequency of
hurricanes
Clouds Changes in cloud
x
cover and fog
Solar radiation Changes in solar
x
radiation
Dust and sand Changes in
storms deposition of dust x
and sand
Hail and lightning Changes in the
frequency of x x x
impacts
The climatic trends which are judged to create infrastructure vulnerability when combined are the following:
─ Increase in mean temperature, changes in solar radiation, in cloud cover, in fog events, deposition of dust and
sand storm, if combined, can cause a total inefficiency of solar panels;
─ Rain on snow events and/or freeze-thaw cycles increase the load on solar panels;
─ Sea level rise combined with extreme precipitation and storm surges increase the risk of flooding and major
coastal erosion;
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 11─ Power outages due (for instance) to freezing rain and snow storms followed by extremely cold temperatures can
put batteries out of service.
All the climate parameters retained for the Climate Change Resilience Assessment are justified below and sorted by
infrastructure component.
The design of solar panels is often made to resist to a certain structural load. Depending on regional climate
conditions, thresholds directly linked to the design may be different. In Prince Edward Island, elements influencing
structural loads are linked to freezing rain, snow amounts, rain on snow, and strong winds. The combination of the
elements, if they are present at the same time, can cause serious damage to the structure. The possible reduction of
snowfall and freeze-thaw cycles would have a positive effect on structural loads.
The client’s systematic approach during the initiation phase of the project led to two years of data acquisition
regarding the performance and the impacts of the solar farm, allowing sufficient testing on the design.
Solar energy is infinite and renewable. However, its output is very sensitive to weather conditions. Although every
element that prevents the panels from getting its direct access to sunlight has the power to reduce the production of
electricity, the impact of the cloud cover and foggy conditions would be minimal. Every element contributing to the
structural load of the panels also influences the production of electricity. During certain winters, the combination of
negative temperatures and important snowfalls may make the solar panel production drop to nearly zero for several
weeks in a row. Destruction due to lighting and hail also influences productivity and encourages more frequent
maintenance operations. The implementation of a smart grid infrastructure will reduce the level of consequences due
to a reduction of solar panel production.
The base of the infrastructure is mainly iron and steal which are sensitive to corrosion, flooding, cold conditions, and
strong winds. Damage to the base of the solar panels can reduce the lifespan of the whole infrastructure, if not
retrofitted well enough. Sea level rise and projections of higher tides would have a higher impact on the base of the
infrastructure, although a reduction of cold snaps and frost days may have a positive effect.
The electricity network must be adapted for warmer temperatures. Dilatation of cables can be a major threat to the
efficiency of the network. This combined with a higher demand for ventilation and air conditioning for batteries can
cause a stress on the electrical network. Wind, snow storms, and freeze-thaw cycles can generate important power
outages, leaving the heating capacity of storage batteries at risk.
Performance of storage batteries is very sensitive to weather conditions. The temperature of rooms where batteries
are stored needs to be monitored to optimize their performance. An operational electrical system is key to the
optimization of a solar and storage project, and a high variability in temperature can make you question the
usefulness of batteries. That is why elements impacting the electrical network, such as wind, snow storms, and
freeze-thaw cycles also have an impact on storage batteries.
2.3 TIME HORIZON
Construction is projected to be complete by December 2020, provided sufficient funding is in place by 2019.
Commissioning and power generation is anticipated to begin by January 2021. Batteries have a lifecycle of 20 years,
and solar panels 35 years. With this information, the consulting team identified the following time horizons for the
assessment:
─ 2040 for storage battery materials and protection,
─ 2060 for the solar panel infrastructure.
WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE
WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT
12 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCEWhen available, climate projections will be analyzed for both following periods 2031-2050 and 2051-2070, depending on the infrastructure impacted by the corresponding climate indicator. Depending on data availability for a specific climate indicator and the data portal investigated, the period selected can be slightly modified. Climate trends will nonetheless be accurate and will consider the importance of minimizing the uncertainty in the occurrence of the risk identified. 2.4 GEOGRAPHY The City of Summerside has a population of 14,829 according to the 2016 census. It is the second largest city of the province. Summerside has a warm summer, humid, continental climate (Dfb, according to the Köppen classification), which means that the coldest month average is below 0°C, all months have an average temperature below 22°C and at least four months have an average temperature above 10°C. Substrate of the region of Summerside is thin loose sandy till. This substrate offers good drainage and is highly erodible. The shoreline of Summerside is characterized by low plains and consists mostly of beaches. Hard engineering (retaining walls and rip rap) is present around the wharf, as well as in other areas on the beach. Elevation of peak tides is approximately 0.7-0.8 m above mean sea level. Vulnerability to coastal flooding, measured as the ratio of run-up to freeboard, is moderate (approximately 1). Between 1968 and 2010, coastline changes around Summerside were between -1 m and 0 m / year, which means that the City is vulnerable to coastal erosion. The southern edge of the solar farm seems to be approximately 2 m above sea level (see Figure 6, this assumption has been confirmed by the client). The low altitude of the project site means that there might be risks associated with sea level rise. Figure 6 Topography of the Area3 (location of the construction site is the red circle) The construction site is located on the western side of the City between the shoreline (south) and Highway 11 (north and east). A golf course lies next to the construction site on its western side. Demarcation of the construction site is represented in Figure 7. The overhead line planned to transfer energy to the large-scale grid crosses the City to reach the electrical substation located in the eastern part of the City. Its route is detailed in Figure 8. 3 Source: https://en-ca.topographic-map.com/maps/qu5/Prince-Edward-Island. CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 13
Figure 7 Demarcation of the Construction Site Figure 8 Proposed Route of Overhead Transmission Line WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT 14 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE
2.5 JURISDICTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
Jurisdictions, laws, regulations, guidelines, and administration processes can affect an organization’s risk tolerance.
Organizations and levels of government have jurisdiction over the planning, permitting, and operation of the
proposed infrastructure. Here is a list of all the interactions between the project and these entities:
─ Summerside Electric is owned by the City, including the Summerside Wind Farm and Diesel General Plant;
─ The distribution grid is interconnected with the provincial grid;
─ Summerside purchases most of its electricity from NB Power;
─ Summerside is subject to, but largely exempt from, the PEI Electric Power Act post January 1, 2004, by
decisions of the Lieutenant Governor in council (The City of Summerside Electric Utilities Exemption
Regulations). Summerside is exempt from the Electric Power Act sections 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 17, 19, 20, 21,
21.1, 22, 23, 24, and 25, pending they comply with certain conditions;
─ Regulatory oversight of Island utilities is the responsibility of the Island Regulatory and Appeals Commission
(IRAC) who issue permits as well. They regulate Summerside Electric through the Electric Power Act and the
City of Summerside Electric Utility Exemption Regulations;
─ Government involvement in electricity is primarily through the PEI Energy Corporation and the Energy and
Minerals Division of the Department of Finance, Energy and Municipal Affairs. The PEI Energy Corporation
seems to be more involved with Maritime Electric. The Energy and Minerals Division establishes policy
positions on electricity matters, regulatory intervention on issues related to Government policy and program
delivery through the Office of Energy Efficiency;
─ An agreement was made in 2017 between 100569 PEI INC and the City of Summerside designating PEI INC.
as the owners of the land known as 'Driving Range Land' where the project is to be located and giving the City
of Summerside land access rights.
2.6 SITE VISITS
No site visit was conducted as part of this study as the project has not yet been constructed. Project design will
provide the information to assess climate resilience. WSP’s consulting team referred to maps and construction plans
given by the City of Summerside and Samsung Renewable Energy.
2.7 ASSESSMENT OF DATA SUFFICIENCY
No assumptions regarding data sufficiency were made at this point, and it was deemed by WSP there was sufficient
information to proceed to Step Two.
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 153 STEP TWO – DATA GATHERING AND
SUFFICIENCY
Step Two of the PIEVC Engineering Protocol expands on the boundary conditions established in Step One by
further refining the definitions of the infrastructure components and climate parameters considered in the risk
assessment. Professional judgement is used to determine sufficiency of data as defined by the quality of data, levels
of uncertainty, and availability of data. Data insufficiency may arise from:
─ poor quality;
─ high levels of uncertainty;
─ lack of data altogether.
3.1 INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENTS
The infrastructure to be assessed includes:
─ solar panels consisting of 67,184 PV modules;
─ solar plant racking and foundations;
─ inverters;
─ outdoor lighting system;
─ an energy storage system including: batteries, containers, foundations, power conversion system, and other
electrical equipment;
─ electrical substation including: transformers, switchgears, meters, breakers, and other electrical equipment;
─ heating, ventilation and air-conditioning facilities in the energy storage system and the electrical substation;
─ overhead transmission line at 34.5kV and poles;
─ telecommunication systems;
─ fences;
─ weather stations;
─ drainage systems;
─ access roads.
Note that all the components stored in the electrical substation and in the energy storage system are assessed as an
ensemble, as the severity of consequences on each component would have a similar impact on the entire project. The
footprint of the project consists of the solar farm, transmission lines, and the electric distribution station. Since the
final engineering design has not been completed yet, materials have not been selected. This risk assessment will
therefore be used as a reference to inform the final design of the project.
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 173.2 TIME HORIZON FOR THE ASSESSMENT
In agreement with the client, the vulnerability assessment will focus on the timeframe corresponding to the design
life of the solar panels and batteries (i.e. main components of the infrastructure). Table 2 states the design life of the
infrastructure components. No maintenance schedule is available, since the construction has not started yet.
Components with an expired life span can typically be replaced as part of a regular maintenance schedule to meet
current design standards. Construction is projected to be complete by December 2020, provided that sufficient
funding is in place by 2019. Commissioning and power generation is anticipated to begin by January 2021.
Table 2 Design Life of each Infrastructure Component
Component Theoretical Lifespan Additional Information
Batteries 20 years
Solar panels 35 years 25-year warranty
Inverters 15 years 10-year warranty
Panel racking and foundations 35 years
Overhead line 35 years
Lighting system 35 years
Air-conditioning and heating 25 years 5- to 10-year warranty
Fences 30 years
3.3 DETAILED GEOGRAPHY
The City of Summerside has a population of 14,829 according to the 2016 census. It is the second largest city of the
province. The following geography details should be considered during the risk assessment:
─ Soil characterization: thin loose sandy till. It offers good drainage in case of heavy precipitation, but also helps
the area’s rapid coastal erosion. Between 1968 and 2010, coastline changes around Summerside were between -
1 m and 0 m / year;
─ Proximity to sea and low plains: the solar farm project is located on the western side of the City of Summerside,
and the southern edge of the farm is located right next to the road along the coast. This road is approximately 1
meter above sea level. On average, the southern edge of the farm is 2 meters above sea level. The current wave
climate is 1.66 m in winter, and 1.86 m in summer, and will increase in the future. Peak tides are between 0.7 m
and 0.8 m above sea level. The southern edge of the farm could then be at risk of flooding;
─ Solar radiation: Prince Edward Island receives substantial amounts of solar radiation in the summer (approx.
230 hours), but rather less in winter (less than 100 hours). Efficiency of solar panels could then be reduced. But
since a battery system is proposed to improve the solar generation output over the course of the year, a decrease
in solar radiation is not to be considered in this analysis;
─ Residential homes lie on the northern limit of the future solar farm;
─ No hills and valleys are to be considered in this assessment.
WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE
WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT
18 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE3.4 SPECIFIC JURISDICTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS
To complement considerations made in Section 2, the following regulations should be considered for each step of
the design and construction:
─ Jurisdictions having direct control/influence on the infrastructure: The City of Summerside, Summerside
Electric, Island Regulatory Appeals Commission, and PEI Energy Corporation;
─ Sections of laws and bylaws that are relevant to the infrastructure: Electric Power Act excluding sections 10, 11,
12, 13, 15, 17, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 and 25, City of Summerside Electric Utility Exemption Regulations
(EC2004-85);
─ Sections of regulations that are relevant to the infrastructure: Minimum Purchase Price Regulations;
─ Standards that are relevant to the design, operation, and maintenance of the infrastructure: Provincial building
code act, Canadian electrical code - CSA C 22.1-18, and Design of Concrete Structures - CAN/CSA-A23.3;
─ Guidelines that are relevant to the design, operation, and maintenance of the infrastructure: NRCAN Solar
Ready Guidelines.
There are many regulations and guidance documents that cover solar power in PEI and Canada but are not included
because they are specific to small-scale or residential set-ups.
3.5 OTHER POTENTIAL CHANGES
The infrastructure may be affected by other potential changes in use patterns, operation and maintenance practices,
management policy, and by laws, regulations and standards. Here is an exhaustive list of potential changes in these
domains and their consequences on the infrastructure:
─ Solar power is limited to the area available for use of the panels, and a substantial increase in demand may
cause the system to be insufficient to supply its target audience, if not planned properly. A decrease in the use of
the panels should not have an impact if they are still being property maintained and/or stored;
─ Regular maintenance can ensure the solar panels reach their theoretical lifespan. Elements such as snow, dirt,
dust, and other particles that accumulate on the panels can lead to soiling and reduction in power output. This is
more typical in flat installation surfaces. Soiling losses are estimated at 1% and can be even reduced if a snow
removal program is put in place. Placement of panels can impact how quickly they degrade, in relation to
nearby hazards like trees which can drop branches in heavy wind, or birds which can deposit droppings and
minimize the usefulness over time. Switching to same system components with different voltage potentials may
also cause modules to lose their peak performance;
─ Changes to maintenance regimes including cleaning and any necessary maintenance of nearby hazards such as
trees may impact the panels’ ability to create energy. However, at the proposed site, the solar panels will be
constructed far from any nearby trees;
─ Changes to laws and regulatory requirements in relation to ‘clean’ energy use and changes in land-use
ownership regulations are possible, although not anticipated at this stage.
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE 193.6 CLIMATE BASELINE
The climate parameters of interest identified in Step One were further assessed and only the parameters associated
with the design, construction, and operation of the proposed infrastructure were brought forward for further
consideration.
The following climate baseline parameters were sourced from:
─ Environment and Climate Change Canada, climate normals for 1981-2010, Summerside Station ID 8300700;
─ Historical data from Climate Atlas of Canada, Summerside grid point;
─ IDF CC tool, Summerside Station ID 8300596;
─ Data from the Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association.
3.6.1 HISTORICAL CLIMATE
Table 3 Historical Mean Values of Climate Parameters
Climate Parameters Historical Mean Value
(1976-2005)
Annual mean temperature 5.7°C
Summer maximum temperature 22.3°C
Winter minimum temperature -9.8°C
Number of cooling degree-days 126
Number of heating degree-days 4,509
Number of days warmer than 30°C 1.3
Number of days colder than -5°C 89.9
Number of days colder than -15°C 23.0
Number of days colder than -30°C 0.0
Annual total precipitation 1,072.9 mm
Annual total solid precipitation 277.9 cm
Precipitation 1:50 in 15 minutes 26.74 mm
Precipitation 1:50 in 24 hours 89.14 mm
Number of days with snowfall greater than 10 cm 7.6
Number of freeze-thaw cycles 67.6
WSP CITY OF SUMMERSIDE
WSP REF.: 191-11112-00 SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT
20 CLIMATE LENS ASSESSMENT – CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE3.6.2 HISTORICAL EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
Table 4 Historical Extreme Weather Events
Climate Parameters Historical Mean Value Date of Occurrence
(1976-2005)
Warmest day on record 33.3°C August 13, 1944
Coldest day on record -29.9°C January 18, 1982
Extreme precipitation in one day 111.8 mm August 13, 1948
Cloud-to-ground lightning (in Canada) 2.3 million Every year
Largest snowstorm in one day 53.6 cm January 1, 1961
Extreme snow depth 114 cm February 14, 1978
Maximum hourly wind speed 121 km/h January 20, 1961
4
Major storms - Hurricane Dorian hit PEI in 2019, and the City of
54 Between 1961 and 2010
Summerside was the most affected area (The Guardian, 2019)
No data available for historical solar radiation and for the number of occurrences of hourly wind speed higher than
84 km/h. Winds above 84 km/h correspond to the threshold set by the National Building Code of Canada to keep
infrastructure risks at their lowest value. This threshold is considered here as a reference value for the assessment of
climate risks.
3.6.3 HISTORICAL CLIMATE TRENDS AND THEIR INFLUENCE
Within the historical period, the effects of climate change are already visible and have a substantial influence on
existing infrastructure. Here are all climate trends observed summarized in Table 5 for every climate parameter
identified as relevant for the Summerside project.
Table 5 Historical Climate Trends for each Parameter Identified
Climate Parameters Trend Influence
Increase in mean temperature +0.25°C/decade between 1951-1970 and Warmer summers:
1994-2013. ─ Lower efficiency of solar panels
─ Lower capacity of storage batteries
─ Increased use of air-conditioning
Warmer winters:
─ Fewer freeze-thaw cycles
─ Less snow on panels
─ Lower use of heating devices
4 Major storms have been identified, by the Prince Edward Island Government, as storms causing substantial damage to the Island and its
inhabitants.
CITY OF SUMMERSIDE WSP
SUMMERSIDE SOLAR AND STORAGE INTEGRATION PROJECT WSP REF.: 191-11112-00
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