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SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
SURGE
                                                                                                                                                     Highlights
                                                                                                                                                     Navy Arctic Strategy
                                                                                                                                                     Climate & Energy Executive Orders
                                                                                                                                                     Energy Security Lessons
                                                                                                                                                     Nord Stream 2 Report
                                                                                                                                                     Ambassador Richard Morningstar
                                                                                                                                                     Battery Reactivity
    ENERGY ACADEMIC GROUP QUARTERLY NEWSLETTER SPRING 2021

        Russia’s
        Dangerous Game:
        Mutually Assured
        Darkness?

        By Lawrence M. Walzer
        Faculty Associate-Research,
        Energy Academic Group

Increasingly, the United States
is confronted with a strategic                                        While many Americans were distracted with other headlines
environment of intense Great Power
                                                                      in the fall and early winter closing out 2020, there were
Competition and persistent hybrid
threats where the energy sector can be
                                                                      several reports of alleged Russian hacking into all levels of
used to leverage governments politically                              U.S. energy infrastructure and systems including into the
through potential energy market                                       Department of Energy.
manipulation or—more dangerously—
via targeted attacks on energy
infrastructure. While there are concerns                          the first reported blackouts caused                               antics go far beyond Ukraine and the
regarding China, Iran, North Korea, and                           by a cyberattack in 2015. Russia’s                                previous incursions in Georgia, as
some non-state actors, Russia remains                             deliberate hybrid campaign led to its                             Russia aggressively seeks to return a
a very prominent hybrid threat actor                              illegal occupation of Crimea making                               perceived sphere of influence into its
on many fronts and in many regions—                               the Kremlin an international pariah in                            fold. Volunteers are few.
some far away, others closer to home.                             the West and beyond. Nonetheless,                                    Much closer to home, cyberattacks
As we seemingly enter a new era of                                its advancement of the Nord Stream                                into our election apparatus and energy
potential Mutually Assured Darkness,                              2 pipeline both furthers its energy                               infrastructure—reportedly at the hands
the recent blackouts in Texas and other                           influence in Western Europe and                                   of the most sophisticated Russian-
areas highlight that it is more than just                         attempts to weaken Ukraine in order                               directed hackers—paint a stark picture
the lights that go out.                                           to punish Kyiv for its steadfast goals                            of our vulnerabilities, which Russia
   Most will recall Russia’s aggression                           to escape Moscow’s yoke and align
and attacks on Ukraine, which led to                              with the liberal West. Russia’s hardball                           Continued on page 2

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                                       1
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
Continued from page 1                             energy infrastructure and systems                  Combating Hybrid Threats, which will
                                                  including into the Department of Energy.           focus initial research efforts on Russia,
undoubtedly seeks to exploit in order                 Deterring our adversaries from                 energy, and naturally, hybrid threats in
to achieve its objectives of returning to         conducting hybrid attacks will                     the maritime domain. We must do far
great power status and broadening its             take a whole of government and                     more than keep the lights on.
scope and influence on an international           comprehensive approach in partnership
scale. While many Americans were                  with the private sector, and also a                             LEARN MORE
distracted with other headlines in the
fall and early winter closing out 2020,
there were several reports of alleged
                                                  determined team effort with our
                                                  allies and other partners. The Naval                           Email Larry Walzer at
                                                                                                                  lmwalzer1@nps.edu
                                                  Postgraduate School will do its part
Russian hacking into all levels of U.S.           with its recently approved Center on

       Defense Energy Certificate Awardees
       Dr. Dan Nussbaum and the Energy Academic Group (EAG) congratulate Cohort III students for completing the
       Defense Energy Certificate, and also acknowledge their hard work and dedication to the program. Upon conclusion
       of the winter quarter, we conferred certificates to 24 students. Feedback from these talented students indicates a
                          NPS's academic
       worth-while and “eye-opening”              programs
                                             experience,      in Defense
                                                            with           Energy
                                                                  a practical       are supplemented
                                                                              application   to address DoDby aneeds.
                                                                                                               seminar series which
                          provides     a  forum    for leading   voices within   the field, practitioners,
           EAG’s Defense Energy Certificate program is a graduate-level accredited certificate program     and  other consisting
                                                                                                                      Defense Energy
                                                                                                                                  of four
                          influencers.      These   professionals    give presentations,     engage  in brown   bag
       courses, offered via Distributed Learning on a pace of one course per quarter for four consecutive quarters. discussions,   and
                                                                                                                                    The
       program is open tofacilitate   informal
                             all federal   civiliangatherings
                                                    employeesthat andencourage
                                                                       active dutyDefense
                                                                                    military. Energy   faculty
                                                                                              It provides thoseand students
                                                                                                                 working      to discourse
                                                                                                                          military and
       civilian employeesover     current issues
                           the opportunity           in Defense
                                                  to gain           Energy, supplementing
                                                           an understanding     of the complex classroom   teaching
                                                                                                  issues facing      with practical,
                                                                                                                the Operational   and
       Installation Energyprofessional
                            segments ofexperiences.
                                              the DoD.       The Defense Energy Seminars Series is a permanent part of NPS's
           We are pleasedDefense
                            to reportEnergy
                                         that Cohort     IV began
                                                  program,   and athekeyprogram    on 29 March
                                                                         to its real-world        2021 with a capacity-filled class of 30
                                                                                             relevance.
       students. Cohort Five is expected to begin on 28 March 2022 with an announcement scheduled for 1 October 2021.
       For more information, or to apply, email Kevin Maher at kjmaher@nps.edu.

       Giovanni Albanese (CIV)                    Clinton Gorman (CIV)                           Noe Nunez-Feliz (CIV)
       Directorate of Public Works,               Public Works Department                        Naval Sea Systems Command,
       U.S. Army Garrison, Italy                  Monterey, CA                                   Washington Navy Yard
                                                                                                 Washington, D.C.
       Jeannie Belew (CIV)                        Geoffry Graves (CIV)
       Director of Public Works                   Norfolk Naval Shipyard                         James Olden (CIV)
       Fort Leonard Wood, MO                      Portsmouth, VA                                 Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary
                                                                                                 of the Air Force (SAF/IEN), Pentagon
       Marisol Bonnet-Acosta (CIV)                David Kiel (CIV)
                                                                                                 Washington, D.C.
       Department of Energy                       Naval Surface Warfare Center,
       Washington, D.C.                           Dahlgren Division                              Benito Perez (CIV)
                                                  Dahlgren, VA                                   Installation Management Command
       Philip Criswell (CIV)
                                                                                                 Fort Bliss Garrison
       Naval Surface Warfare Center,              Frank Kim, CDR, USN
                                                                                                 Fort Bliss, TX
       Philadelphia Division                      Commander, Logistics Group
       Philadelphia, PA                           Western Pacific                                Jesse Rougeux (CIV)
                                                  Sembawang, Singapore                           Program Executive Office Ships,
       Michael Davis, COL, USA
                                                                                                 Washington Navy Yard
       North Atlantic Treaty                      Joshua Lappen (CIV)
                                                                                                 Washington, D.C.
       Organization School                        Naval Surface Warfare Center,
       Oberammergau, Germany                      Carderock Division                             Matthew Suess (CIV)
                                                  West Bethesda, MD                              Public Works Department
       Zachary Eberbach (CIV)
                                                                                                 Monterey, CA
       Installation Management Command,           Sara Lohmann (CIV)
       U.S. Army Garrison                         Naval Surface Warfare Center Carderock         Daniel Temple (CIV)
       Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany                   Division, Washington Navy Yard                 Energy Academic Group, Naval
                                                  Washington, D.C.                               Postgraduate School
       Joshua Edwards (CIV)
                                                                                                 Monterey, CA
       Department of Public Works                 William Mcshane (CIV)
       U.S. Army Garrison, Italy                  Department of Energy                           Benny Tomlinson (CIV)
                                                  Washington, D.C.                               Installation Management Command
       Toniann Fisher (CIV)
                                                                                                 Fort Bliss Garrison
       Office of the Deputy Assistance            Matthew Munroe, Maj, USMC
                                                                                                 Fort Bliss, TX
       Secretary of Defense for Environment       6th Engineer Support Battalion
       and Energy Resilience, Pentagon            Battle Creek, MI                               Gregory Vallery (CIV)
       Washington, D.C.                                                                          Installation Management Command
                                                                                                 Garmisch, Germany
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
FROM THE CHAIR
                  Dan Nussbaum, Chair of the Energy Academic Group
In this article I address three           senior officials in the Pentagon are       most recent NDAA speaks directly
issues: climate change concerns of        clear implementations of these new         to this fact, and it imposes sanctions
the new administration; geopolitical      policies. Mr. Bryan has been appointed     on some participants in the
implications of a natural gas pipeline;   as the Senior Advisor to the SECDEF on     program. You can read about some
and a recent development in               climate change; he was a former DASN       of the EU-U.S.-Russia geopolitical
assessing issues in hybrid warfare.       for operational energy. Mr. Kidd is        tensions of NS2 in “Nord Stream 2:
    Every new administration comes        now the DASD (Environment & Energy         Implications and Outcomes for U.S.-
with its own priorities. For example,     Resilience), with a portfolio covering     German Relations and the NATO
the Biden administration has              “enabling resilience and cyber-secure      Alliance “, here.
reintroduced climate change as an         energy for weapon systems and                  Finally for this article, I want to
aspect of National Security, reviving     installations, oversight of programs       mention the establishment of a new,
what has been an in-and-out topic         related to climate change, compliance      interdisciplinary research center at
ever since the 1990s when the U.S.        with environmental laws, prevention        NPS that was initiated by the Energy
Naval War College issued Global           of pollution, management of natural        Academic Group, the Center on
Climate Change Implications for           and cultural resources, and cleanup of     Combating Hybrid Threats (CCHT). In
the United States, which found that       contaminated sites, as well as energy      an era of Great Power Competition,
“Naval operations in the coming half      resilience, risk, and performance.”        we face increased challenges from
century may be drastically affected       He was formerly a Deputy Assistant         hybrid threats as adversaries seek
by the impact of global climate           Secretary within the Army Secretariat.     to operate in the “gray zone” which
change.” Later, in October 2003,          I know them both as dedicated,             falls short of full war, is less costly,
the National Defense University           articulate and committed civil servants,   and yet is an increasingly effective
published a report stating that           and look forward to working with them      space to conduct hybrid operations
“global warming could have a chilling     and their offices.                         and campaigns. The ongoing
effect on the military.” In 2018, the         The worldwide flows of natural gas     challenges from Russia, China, Iran,
National Defense Authorization Act        are a hard-to-overestimate dimension       North Korea, and non-state actors
(NDAA) addressed the vulnerabilities      of international politics and economics,   pertaining to hybrid threats require
to military installations over the        and, as such, they play an important       greater interdisciplinary attention.
next two decades and warned that          role in great power competition. Two       The Center will have three pillars,
rising temperatures, droughts,            recent developments in this sphere are     namely research, education, and
and famines might lead to more            noteworthy: the recently completed         outreach, and will work closely with
failed states―which are “breeding         Southern Gas Corridor, and the almost      other departments and centers on
grounds of extremist and terrorist        completed Nord Stream 2 (NS2)              the NPS campus such as the Center
organizations.” Now, President            natural gas pipeline. The Southern Gas     for Infrastructure Defense and the
Biden’s Executive Order (EO)              Corridor routes natural gas from the       Cyber Academic Group. If you’re
establishes climate considerations        Caspian to Europe, and one of its main     interested in this topic, please do
as an essential element of U.S.           goals is to reduce Europe's dependency     not hesitate to reach out to me.
foreign policy and national security.     on Russian gas by diversifying Europe’s
The EO commissions a “National            energy sources. NS2 will double                    CONTACT
Intelligence Estimate on the security
implications of climate change,” and
                                          the capacity of the existing, parallel
                                          undersea route (NS1) from Russian
                                                                                            DR. DAN NUSSBAUM
                                                                                             Email danussba@nps.edu
it directs DoD to “develop plans          fields to Germany (and then onwards                or call 831-656-2387
to adapt to a warming world.” The         to get to Europe). There is some
recent announcements of Mr. Joe           concern that NS2 increases Europe’s
Bryan and Mr. Richard Kidd as             dependence on Russia. In fact, the
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
ENERGY POLICY
       Navy Releases Strategic
       Blueprint for the Arctic
       By Kristen Fletcher,
       Faculty Associate-Research,
       Energy Academic Group

The crew of the Seawolf-class fast-attack submarine, USS Connecticut (SSN 22) during Ice Exercise (ICEX) 2020.
(U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Michael B. Zingaro)

On January 5, the Navy released a
Blue Arctic, its “strategic blueprint”                                "Without sustained American naval presence and
for the Arctic region in preparation
for an increasingly accessible and
                                                                      partnerships in the Arctic region, peace and prosperity
navigable region. The document                                        will be increasingly challenged by Russia and China, whose
defines the Arctic region as “stretching                              interests and values differ dramatically from ours."
from Maine in the North Atlantic across
the Arctic Ocean through the Bering
Strait and Alaska in the North Pacific to                         claim as a “near-Arctic state,” the 2019                          Guard capabilities, and synchronizing
the southern tip of the Aleutian Island                           DoD Arctic Strategy disputes the claim.                           our Fleets.” Continuing joint military
chain.”                                                           With the increased investments and                                exercises, like the submarine-focused
    The document follows the 2019                                 activities by China and Russia, the                               ICEX, are essential to evaluate and
Strategic Outlook for the Arctic, Arctic                          document prioritizes the need for                                 enhance American preparedness for
Roadmap 2014–2030, and 2009 Navy                                  sustained partnerships with allies within                         operations in the region.
Arctic Roadmap. The blueprint opens by                            and outside the region.
acknowledging the significant changes                                The blueprint shows prioritization
in the region, especially increasingly                            of operating more assertively across
                                                                  the region “to prevail in day-to-                                        LEARN MORE
navigable Arctic waters as a result of
rapidly melting sea ice. It states that a                         day competition as we protect the                                        Download a Blue Arctic
blue Arctic “will create new challenges                           homeland, keep Arctic seas free and                                      from defense.gov
and opportunities off our northern                                open, and deter coercive behavior and
                                                                                                                                           EAG Interns have prepared two
shores. Without sustained American                                conventional aggression.” This includes
                                                                                                                                           Arctic reports available at:
naval presence and partnerships in the                            improving the Navy’s exercises and fleet
                                                                                                                                           nps.edu/web/eag/intern-research
Arctic region, peace and prosperity will                          synchronization above and underwater
                                                                  by “regionally posturing our forces,                                     Email Kristen Fletcher at
be increasingly challenged by Russia
                                                                  conducting exercises and operations,                                     kristen.fletcher@nps.edu
and China, whose interests and values
differ dramatically from ours.” While the                         integrating Navy-Marine Corps-Coast
blueprint does not reference China’s

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                           4
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ENERGY POLICY
       Executive Orders Create
       National Priorities on
       Climate and Energy
       By Kristen Fletcher,
       Faculty Associate-Research,
       Energy Academic Group

President Joe Biden signs one of the 17 Executive Orders he signed on Inauguration Day Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2021, in the Oval Office of the
White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Between January 20 and February                                      EO 14008 calls for the creation                                of its future National Defense Strategy.
4, President Biden issued three                                   of a National Climate Task Force,                                 DoD will analyze its own carbon
Executive Orders (EOs) which prioritize                           which is chaired by National Climate                              footprint and spur the “development
climate at the center of U.S. foreign                             Advisor Gina McCarthy, and includes                               of climate-friendly technologies at
policy and national security and                                  senior White House officials and                                  scale.” Secretary Austin concluded
instruct executive agencies regarding                             Cabinet-level leaders from 21 federal                             the statement with “There is little
energy and climate actions. The                                   agencies including the Secretaries                                about what the Department does to
Executive Orders are:                                             of Defense, Homeland Defense, and                                 defend the American people that is
                                                                  Energy. The Task Force will facilitate                            not affected by climate change. It is a
• Executive Order 13900 (January                                  the organization and deployment                                   national security issue, and we must
  20, 2021): Protecting Public Health                             of a government-wide approach to                                  treat it as such.”
  and the Environment and Restoring                               combat the climate crisis, including
  Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis                            leveraging federal procurement to
                                                                  decarbonize the electricity sector by
• Executive Order 14008 (January 27,
                                                                  2035 and replace government vehicles                                     LEARN MORE
  2021): Tackling the Climate Crisis at
                                                                  with zero-emission vehicles. EO 14008                                    The Climate Change EOs and
  Home and Abroad
                                                                  reboots the Presidential Memorandum                                      Secretary Austin’s statement are
• Executive Order 14013 (February                                 on Climate Change and National                                           available at: nps.edu/web/eag/
  4, 2021): Rebuilding and Enhancing                              Security of September 21, 2016, and                                      energy-climate
  Programs to Resettle Refugees and                               calls for an analysis of the security
                                                                                                                                           All Executive Orders and
  Planning for the Impact of Climate                              implications of climate change to be
                                                                                                                                           Presidential Memoranda are
  Change on Migration                                             incorporated into defense planning
                                                                                                                                           available at:
                                                                  along with deployment of clean energy
                                                                                                                                           whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/
EO 13900 calls for conservation of 30%                            technologies and infrastructure.
                                                                                                                                           presidential-actions
of federal land and oceans by 2030;                                  Secretary of Defense Austin issued
institutes a moratorium on new oil and                            a statement noting that the Pentagon                                     Email Kristen Fletcher at
gas leases on public lands and waters;                            will begin incorporating climate analysis                                kristen.fletcher@nps.edu
and coincides with the United States                              into its war-gaming and analysis efforts
reentering the Paris Climate Accord.                              as well as featuring the issue as part

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                             5
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
ENERGY POLICY
      Lessons for
      the States
      on Energy
      Security

      By Brenda Shaffer,
      Faculty Associate-Research,
      Energy Academic Group

Article originally published February 23,
2021 in RealClearEnergy and reprinted                                 These lessons include the need for government involvement
with permission.
                                                                      in energy security, the necessity of emergency-supply
The recent extended electricity
                                                                      plans, the importance of diversifying fuel sources, the need
outage in Texas has spurred a sharp                                   for energy storage and dual-fuel power plants, and legal
debate on how to prevent future                                       protection of ownership and operations of critical energy
disasters in Texas and other states.                                  infrastructure.
Much of this debate ignores the
fact that few states have adopted a
proactive approach to energy security.                            alone can’t provide it. Accordingly, U.S.                         particularly residential customers, will
Instead, most have left energy security                           states need energy security policies.                             receive energy supplies. As the recent
matters to market mechanisms and                                  While market mechanisms and private                               bitter freeze loomed, Texas should have
to Washington, neither of which can                               companies can play the dominant                                   preemptively ordered such a shutdown.
deliver on local needs. States would                              role in energy production, transit, and                           Instead, several days into the crisis,
benefit from adopting energy security                             marketing, the state must stay involved                           energy-intensive industries in Texas,
policies. In crafting these policies,                             in ensuring that mechanisms are in                                like gas-liquefaction plants, chose to
they can learn from the tenets of                                 place for energy security.                                        shut down. Texas and many other U.S.
international energy security policy                                 Second, well-governed states                                   states rely on market mechanisms to
as practiced by many countries with                               develop and execute detailed                                      direct such shutdowns, but the market
smaller populations and GNP than                                  emergency plans in case of disruptions                            mechanisms did not deliver. A simple
medium and large U.S. states.                                     of natural gas, liquid fuels, and                                 emergency-response plan could have
   These lessons include the need for                             electricity supplies. Most NATO                                   prevented the meltdown.
government involvement in energy                                  member countries, for instance, have                                  Next, diverse fuel mixes enhance
security, the necessity of emergency-                             energy emergency-supply plans. These                              security of energy supply. Following the
supply plans, the importance of                                   plans allow these governments to pre-                             Texas outage, interested parties sought
diversifying fuel sources, the need                               emptively shut down energy-intensive,                             to blame specific energy sources such
for energy storage and dual-fuel                                  non-essential industries, such as                                 as wind and natural gas for the failure.
power plants, and legal protection of                             cement production, desalination plants,                           It’s a good thing that Texas’s electricity
ownership and operations of critical                              and some manufacturing.                                           is produced by multiple energy
energy infrastructure.                                               By doing so, governments can                                   sources, but as foreign countries know,
   Lesson one is that energy security is                          prevent grid collapse and ensure that                             energy systems need back up and
akin to national security, and markets                            those that need the supplies most,                                redundancies. Governments need to

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                           6
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
mandate that natural gas companies                                ownership in U.S. energy infrastructure.                          equipped than the vast federal
store backup supplies, not leave it to                            Most foreign countries enact laws to                              government to provide for local
the companies’ discretion.                                        protect their strategic infrastructure                            security of supply of energy. Market
   Israel, for instance, despite                                  from being acquired by potential hostile                          mechanisms are not enough to get
possessing, like Texas, vast natural                              actors. For instance, Lithuania in 2012                           the job done. The public expects local
gas resources in the ground, stores                               barred ownership of its energy and                                governments to ensure secure energy
liquefied gas for emergency use. And                              other strategic national infrastructure                           supplies. When the lights go out,
some of the electricity power plants                              by companies that do not share a                                  citizens blame their states, not private
should be dual-fuel, so that when gas                             “trans-Atlantic orientation,” in an effort                        companies or Washington.
supplies are disrupted, they can easily                           to prevent Russian ownership of its
transfer from one fuel type to another                            grids and ports. U.S. states need also                                             LEARN MORE
and keep generation going. The dual-
fuel plants are less efficient, so the
private market tends not to install
                                                                  to assess the risks from foreign actors
                                                                  and put legislation in place to protect
                                                                  essential energy infrastructure.
                                                                                                                                                    Email Brenda Shaffer at
                                                                                                                                                     eag_poc@nps.edu

them. Again, it falls to governments                                 Marketization of energy trade has
to ensure some backup plants are                                  had many worthwhile results, leading
available when needed. Most Eastern                               to greater supplies and lower prices
European nations possess dual-                                    of many forms of energy. However,
fuel power plants to offset potential                             U.S. states need to enact policies
disruptions of Russian gas.                                       that ensure the reliability of those
   While not connected to the Texas                               supplies, especially as most American
supply outage, future disruptions could                           communities plan expanded use of
be tied to foreign actors that acquire                            electricity. States are much better

       NEW REPORT
       Nord Stream 2: Implications and
       Outcomes for U.S.-German Relations
       and the NATO Alliance
      Resolving the areas of                                      2 will secure additional volumes                                  NATO Alliance. Ultimately, careful
      contention between Germany                                  from Russia. Ironically, this will                                diplomacy and compromise
      and the United States is of                                 also increase Russia’s political and                              solutions from Washington and
      the utmost importance early in                              economic leverage over Ukraine as                                 Berlin offer the best potential
      President Joe Biden’s term. One                             well as several Central and Eastern                               for ameliorating trans-Atlantic
      of these disputes is the ongoing                            European Allies dependent on                                      relations during a fraught election
      disagreements on the Nord                                   Russian gas. The U.S. has voiced                                  year in Germany.
      Stream 2 undersea natural gas                               strong opposition to Nord Stream
      pipeline. This issue comes at                               2, but Germany is determined to
      a difficult time as Berlin is in a                          proceed with its construction,
      precarious position regarding its                           further complicating efforts to                                          LEARN MORE
      energy security outlook. To meet                            normalize relations between the                                          Read the entire report
      economic and environmental                                  two nations. This position paper                                         on the EAG's website at
      obligations after the shutdown of                           provides three potential scenarios                                       nps.edu/web/eag/news
      its nuclear power plants, Germany                           on Nord Stream 2, discussing
      will depend on steady imports                               the implications of each for U.S.-
      of natural gas; and Nord Stream                             German relations, as well as for the

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SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
ENERGY OUTREACH
      Interview with Ambassador
      Richard Morningstar

      By Brenda Shaffer, Faculty
      Associate – Research, Energy
      Academic Group

Ambassador Richard Morningstar (retired), founding chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center

In August 2020, the Energy                                        we were thinking about and we really                              successful project.” This project brings
Academic Group held an advanced                                   wanted there to be a diversity of                                 the first new gas volumes in decades
energy security course for                                        pipelines, not just pipelines going                               to Europe, versus pipeline projects that
professionals in Azerbaijan,                                      through Russia. We didn’t want to see                             just reroute existing gas supplies.
Georgia and Turkey. The virtual                                   pipelines going through Iran—but
course was co-sponsored with ADA                                  it was important that pipelines go
University in Baku. One of the highlights                         west… We really wanted to emphasize
of the course was an interview                                    and ensure the sovereignty of the                                        LEARN MORE
with (retired) Ambassador Richard                                 new states, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and                                     Watch the full interview at
Morningstar, founding chairman of                                 Central Asian countries.” In addition,                                   nps.edu/web/eag/august-12-2020
the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy                              “What was important is that this was
Center. Ambassador Morningstar held a                             a bipartisan policy. Republicans and                                     Read the full interview at the
number of positions over the last three                           Democrats both supported it. And                                         atlanticcouncil.org
decades leading major aspects of U.S.                             it’s been consistent since that time.                                    Email Brenda Shaffer at
international energy policy, including                            With all of the issues in the United                                     eag_poc@nps.edu
U.S. Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy                            States, all the fighting back and forth
and U.S. Ambassador to the EU, and                                between Republicans and Democrats,
U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan. His                                our Caspian policy has been fully
interview captures lessons learned on                             consistent for 25 years. And I think
U.S. international energy policy and is                           that’s been very important because it
an important primary document for                                 gave us credibility.” On the Southern
students and researchers studying                                 Gas Corridor natural gas project, which
the intersection between U.S. foreign                             brings gas from the Caspian to Europe
policy and U.S. international energy                              and which Morningstar worked over a
policy, Caspian energy, and the politics                          decade to help establish, Morningstar
of the South Caucasus. In addition                                remarked, “I think that the Southern
Morningstar explained “At that time,                              Gas Corridor has been an incredibly

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                          8
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School

              RESILIENCE CORNER
              The Four
              Horsemen of
              Infrastructure
              Vulnerability

                                                                  arise as a challenge to a system that                             by determining the probability it will be
By Dan Eisenberg, PhD,                                            causes assets and systems to fail.                                inoperable given normal conditions.
Department of Operations                                          Here, experts use consequence                                     Reliability engineering focuses on
Research, NPS                                                     models to estimate impacts brought                                updating poorly managed, out-of-
                                                                  by challenges. In contrast, threats also                          date, and faulty systems before they
Resilience is a “new” term creeping                               arise from flaws within our systems.                              fail. Reliability is the language of
into military directives, but what                                Here, bad design or poor management                               systems engineers and engineering
does it mean and how do we use                                    can cause systems to fail. Flaws can be                           professionals.
it to guide decisions? Earlier in the                             managed without knowing the failures
Resilience Corner, we described                                   or consequences they may cause.                                   Adversarial Analysis: Adversarial
how achieving resilience means                                       Taken together, these perspectives                             analysis deals with possible challenges
improving the robustness, extensibility,                          allow us to organize a comprehensive                              to a system. While the likelihood
restoration, and adaptation of military                           framework for vulnerability analysis.                             of an adversarial attack can only
systems. However, improving resilience                            Specifically, perspectives relate to four                         be estimated with possibility, the
is impossible without first knowing                               technical fields, each exemplifying one                           consequences of an adversarial attack
system vulnerability.                                             of the “four horsemen of infrastructure                           can be explicitly measured. Adversarial
    So, how do we identify                                        vulnerability” that will come to your                             analysis is the language of military and
vulnerabilities? My answer to this                                base to tell you that your energy                                 security experts.
question hinges on the idea that                                  system is vulnerable. A comprehensive
                                                                                                                                    Safety Engineering: Safety deals
vulnerabilities arise from how we model                           vulnerability analysis should consider
                                                                                                                                    with possible flaws in a system.
the predictability and source of threats.                         each perspective prior to making
                                                                                                                                    Safety concerns itself with managing
    There are at least two ways to model                          recommendations on how to improve
                                                                                                                                    dangerous conditions and tries to
threat predictability. Predictability                             resilience.
                                                                                                                                    identify protections and precautions
can be modeled with probabilities
                                                                  Risk Analysis: Risk analysis identifies                           that prevent failures from occurring.
representing the likelihood of a threat
                                                                  predictable challenges to a system.                               Safety is the language of safety
(e.g., the return period for a flood).
                                                                  The likelihood of a risk is modeled with                          professionals and human factors.
Predictability is also modeled with
possibilities representing imagined                               probability and the consequences of
events that are unlikely, but possible.                           system failure is explicitly measured.                                             LEARN MORE
In the military, we often consider
possibilities through wargaming and
                                                                  Risk analysis is the language of the
                                                                  insurance industry and actuaries.                                                 Email Dan Eisenberg at
                                                                                                                                                     daniel.eisenberg@nps.edu
exercises to see how people respond to
                                                                  Reliability Engineering: Reliability
ficticious situations.
                                                                  identifies predictable flaws in a system.
    There are also two ways to model
                                                                  The reliability of a system is informed
the source of threats. Threats can

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                          9
SURGE - Naval Postgraduate School
ENERGY RESEARCH

      COTS Microgrid
      Lab Operational
      at NPS
      By Brandon Naylor, Faculty
      Associate-Research,
      Energy Academic Group

The microgrid is housed in a 20’ standard shipping container for easy to transport for future experiments in different testing environments.

The Energy Academic Group at the                                  the COTS components used in the                                   as monitoring the voltage of individual
Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)                                   microgrid differ from what students                               battery cells. Demonstrating COTS
has completed construction of                                     might see in a forward deployed                                   technologies in this microgrid lab may
a small-scale microgrid using low                                 operational environment, their                                    pave the way for future exploration or
cost commercial off-the-shelf (COTS)                              open architecture and component-                                  adoption of COTS energy technologies
parts. This microgrid facility will allow                         agnostic nature makes them ideal for                              at CONUS DoD installations. Until
students to collect experimental                                  student experimentation; the COTS                                 then, the microgrid lab will serve as a
data on the performance of different                              components used in the microgrid                                  valuable educational tool for students
technologies for renewable generation,                            are designed to interface with a wide                             studying power electronics at NPS.
energy storage, and power distribution.                           variety of hardware, so students will be
The microgrid is housed in a 20’                                  able to integrate new components such                                              LEARN MORE
standard shipping container which
makes the system easy to transport
for future experiments in different
                                                                  as hydrogen or compressed air energy
                                                                  storage. Work is ongoing to improve
                                                                  the data collection capabilities of the
                                                                                                                                                    Email Brandon Naylor at
                                                                                                                                                     blnaylor@nps.edu
testing environments. Although                                    microgrid for adavanced features such

                                                                 Operational Energy Research
                                                                 Available on Calhoun
                                                                Allreserved
                                                            Space   NPS resident    students Energy
                                                                            for our Operation write aTheses
                                                                                                      thesisplug
                                                                                                             or capstone project report as part of
                                                                  their curricular requirements. Many theses are unclassified and accessible
                                                                  on Calhoun—the Naval Postgraduate School's digital repository for research
                                                                  materials and institutional publications created by the NPS community. To access
                                                                  theses which involve operational energy, please use the following link. New theses
                                                                  are added every quarter.
                                                                               View operational energy theses available on Calhoun:
                                                                              https://calhoun.nps.edu/

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                             10
ENERGY RESEARCH
       Battery Reactivity, a Key Consideration
        By Eric Hahn, Faculty Associate –
        Research, Energy Academic Group

        Energy storage is an integral
        component of an increasingly
                                                                       Spent Li-ion batteries add to hazardous waste streams
        electrified modern battlefield.
        This will result in a greater need                             generated by the force. The risks and costs associated
        for light-weight yet energy-dense                              with this waste stream could be reduced or potentially
        storage systems. The increasing                                eliminated with implementation of deactivation
        demand for these systems has                                   technology.
        resulted in the deployment
        of lithium ion (Li-ion) battery
        technologies across the force.                            materials recycling describes it as                                   Defense Logistics Agency (DLA),
        The requirement to enable and                             follows: “Li-ion battery reactivity can                           OnTo Technology LLC (a DLA Small
        protect the force on the modern                           lead to explosion, even with state-of-                            Business Innovation Research
        battlefield, as well as minimize                          the-art recycling practices. To show                              Contractor), and the Energy
        risks of collateral damage, places a                      the risk of fire and energy release with                          Academic Group are collaborating
        premium on efficient and effective                        batteries, a single small cell can reach                          on concept stage exploratory study
        life cycle management of Li-ion                           over 600˚C and melt aluminum when                                 in the southwest region to identify
        battery technology.                                       cut with a shearing action, like what                             and prioritize specific research
            Key life cycle considerations                         occurs in an industrial shredder.” Spent                          development locations, activities
        of Li-ion battery systems                                 Li-ion batteries add to hazardous                                 and transition needs to enable
        involve efficient and effective                           waste streams generated by the                                    implementation of new battery
        management of not only their                              force. The risks and costs associated                             deactivation technology.
        energy storage benefits, but                              with this waste stream could be
        also their hazardous energy                               reduced or potentially eliminated
        risks. Steve Sloop, a technology                                                                                                             LEARN MORE
        developer focused on battery
                                                                  with implementation of deactivation
                                                                  technology.                                                                       Email Eric Hahn at
                                                                                                                                                     ehahn1@nps.edu

S U R G E S P R I N G 2 02 1 Q UA R T E R LY N E W S L E T T E R , E N E R G Y AC A D E M I C G R O U P, N AVA L P O S T G R A D UAT E S C H O O L                        11
Calendar of Events
JUNE
June 29–July 2
Critical Energy Infrastructure
Protection (CEIP) Analysis Workshop
Baku, Azerbaijan

                             Interested in Energy-related Thesis Research?
                             Since 2013, NPS and the EAG supported a plethora of student thesis research in the area of
                             energy. Publicly viewable student theses can be searched from the Resources page of the EAG
                             website at nps.edu/web/eag/resources. The EAG’s extensive resources, intellectual capital,
                             and connections with multi-disciplinary faculty and energy professionals provide students
                             enhanced support for energy-related research. If interested in energy research, please reach
                             out to the EAG team!

                                                                                                                              Contribute to
                                                                                                                              an issue of Surge
                                                                                                                              If you would like to
   Connect with the Energy Academic Group                                                                                     contribute an article or
   The Energy Academic Group is located in Room 101A, Spanagel Hall on                                                        have your research/work
   the NPS campus in Monterey, California. A wide range of NPS faculty are                                                    published in the Surge
   affiliated with the energy program, actively participate in energy graduate                                                newsletter, please contact
   education, energy executive education, and energy research. For questions,                                                 Lois Hazard via email at
   please contact one of the principal EAG faculty members:                                                                   lkhazard@nps.edu.

   CHAIR                                  LCDR USN (Ret)                      Dr. Brenda Shaffer
   Dr. Daniel Nussbaum                    Eric Hahn                           eag_poc@nps.edu                                 Surge is published quarterly by
   danussba@nps.edu                       ehahn1@nps.edu                                                                      the Energy Academic Group at
                                                                              LtCol USMC (Ret)
   831-656-2387                           Tahmina Karimova                    Dan Temple                                      the Naval Postgraduate School.
   ASSOCIATE CHAIR                        ttkarimo@nps.edu                    daniel.temple@nps.edu
                                          831-656-6405                                                                        Lois Hazard
   Alan Howard                                                                LtCol USMC (Ret)                                Editor-In-Chief
   arhoward@nps.edu                       Brandon Naylor                      Lawrence Walzer
   831-656-3855                           blnaylor@nps.edu                    lmwalzer1@nps.edu                               Frank Chezem
                                          831-656-1986                        831-656-3777                                    Art Direction and
   FACULTY
                                                                                                                              Graphic Design
   Kristen Fletcher                       CDR USN (Ret)                       Jacob Wigal
   kristen.fletcher@nps.edu               Kevin Maher                         jacob.wigal@nps.edu
   831-656-6195                           kjmaher@nps.edu                     831-656-1897
                                          831-656-2691

              EAG WEBSITE                             FOLLOW EAG ON LINKEDIN
              nps.edu/energy                          linkedin.com/company/energy-academic-group

   The views and perspectives herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Navy (or Marine Corps).
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