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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
9 Murray St, New York, NY 10007
Tel: 855.935.5997 • info@frontierdatacorp.com
www.frontierdatacorp.com
TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
FRONTIER
DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
FRONTIER DATA CORP: MAPPING TERRA INCOGNITA
Early explorers and mathematicians relied often on imagination while mapping “terra
incognita”—unknown lands beyond the reach of existing navigational methods and mapping
tools. Financial institutions, corporations and governments today similarly deal with the
challenges of “dark data” and informational black holes. Today’s decision-makers cannot
however afford to rely on imagination and conjecture when making major decisions in emerging
markets. Frontier Data Corp offers those decision-makers the opportunity to take action based
on concrete, objective facts extracted from hard-to-access regions of the world.
Frontier Data Corp is currently covering dozens of emerging and frontier market countries globally,
highlighted here in dark blue.
We have developed a data collection system that breaks into the most impenetrable markets in the
world to capture information typically denied to non-locals and non-native speakers. Our weekly
dataset capturing 50+ data points across 30 countries offers unprecedented transparency in
market price and consumption patterns across energy, food & beverage, real estate, consumer
products, and transportation sectors in historically opaque markets.
Our data reflects the underlying supply and demand conditions at work in the focal country while
capturing the impact of major political activity that directly drive price movements. For example,
we are covering several key data points in the “BRIC” countries and our data closely reflects the
fact that owing to high taxes, Brazil’s electricity rates were recently the world’s third highest.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
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DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
Figure 1: Electricity and fuel prices in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (Nov-Dec 2012)
Fuel
&
Electricity
Prices
BRIC
Countries
Nov-‐Dec
2012
Fuel Electricity
$1.60
$0.18
Recently
world's
$1.40
3rd
highest
$0.16
electricity
prices
$1.20
$0.14
$0.12
$1.00
$0.10
Unleaded
Gasoline
$
US
$0.80
$0.08
Diesel
$0.60
Electricity
Rate
$0.06
$0.40
$0.04
$0.20
$0.02
$0.00
$0.00
Brazil
Russia
India
China
Frontier Data Corp aims to be the indispensable navigational tool for all decision-makers pressed
with challenges in frontier markets. We strive to penetrate the most opaque markets in the most
promising centers of growth in the world, and we can deliver data unrivalled in frequency
granularity. Our data is rich with insights about consumer demand, credit market trends,
infrastructure growth, political and economic stability, and market opportunities.
This paper provides a brief overview of our methods and capabilities, details how clients
operating in emerging markets can use our data to secure strategic advantage in frontier market
competition, and showcases some surprising pricing realities in the frontier markets.
METHODS & CAPABILITIES
Granular collection
Frontier Data Corp has been collecting weekly time series data in hard-to-penetrate emerging
markets for over 6 months now. Data collection in each of our target markets is performed by
carefully vetted, on-the-ground company sources with whom we’ve cultivated trusted
relationships. Data collection sheets are highly scripted and simplified for ease of data entry and
comparison. Data are collected from multiple sources, ensuring that outliers do not skew values
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
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disproportionately, and at least 5 or 6 additional metadata, such as geo-location, method, and
time, are collected with each data type, to ensure validity and provide additional dimension to the
overall series. Once data is collected, our analysts in the U.S. and Dubai perform a rigorous
quality control process, comparing multiple data points against each other and against other
countries to isolate and prompt investigation of outliers. Multiple iterations of collection are
performed within each country until the data is free of error and its anomalies are satisfactorily
explained.
Validating government sources
The problem of data absence is compounded by the
nature of the government and economic bodies of
these countries. In some edge states there is little to no
government to speak of and no official data collection
taking place. In states with weaker governments, data
collection is very low on the list of government
priorities and therefore does not occur or only occurs
occasionally and unpredictably. For example, the Iraq
census was carried out with severe methodological
problems and was last implemented over 20 years ago.
Once collected, data may be compromised in its recording and analysis. These problems may be
due to benign inefficiencies and poor methodologies but they may also be a result of purposeful
political attempts to control information, such as by systematically underrepresenting an ethnic
group.
Lead time on other data sources
Where other major data sources and applications, such as official government figures, offer only
monthly, secondary data, we provide weekly, primary data from on-the-ground, active sources
unencumbered by bureaucratic interests and free from possible manipulation. Our data offers
practitioners up to a three-week lead time on monthly reports and a ten-week lead time on
quarterly reports offered by other commercial data reporting outlets. Furthermore, the data can
be customized to meet specific individual requirements. As some of the most developed and
transparent countries in the world fall short in consistent monthly data reporting, emerging
markets lag even further. Regular financial reporting outlets typically simply recycle official
government statistics, and as a result, investors and operators are left to wait out the reporting
cycles determined by official government statistics offices—reluctant to take action on potential
market opportunities in the meantime.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
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DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
Figure 2: FDC weekly inflation index – Vietnam (October 2012)
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1**"."&+(
TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
FRONTIER
DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
example, for all 30 countries, an analyst seeking to compare relative disposable income can rely on
our salary data (e.g. for a police officer) as a multiple of a basket of cost of living goods. A sample
cost-of-living ratio comparison is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Physician’s purchasing power in FDC coverage countries
Saudi Egypt Syria Yemen Iraq Malaysia Myanmar
Arabia
1.83x 1.74x 1.46x 0.32x 0.87x 7.34x 0.90x
In other words, a physician in Saudi Arabia earns 1.83x his cost-of-living per month; in Malaysia,
a doctor earns approximately 7.34x his cost-of-living per month.
Foreign exchange spreads—unofficial and official FX rates
We provide weekly time series data on official and unofficial exchange rates in our coverage
countries. With continuous tracking of spreads between the two data points, a client may be able
to discern underlying patterns in the macro-economic environment, investor perceptions of the
market, and the impact of state and central government decision-making. Figure 3 illustrates the
spread between movements in the unofficial and official US Dollar / Vietnamese Dong exchange
rate.
Figure 3: Official and unofficial exchange rate VND: USD trendline through December
200
Unofficial
vs.
Official
VND:USD
trendline
150
(June
-‐
December
2012)
UnofJicial
VND:USD
Rate
Weekly
Δ
OfJicial
VND:USD
Rate
Weekly
Δ
100
50
0
-‐50
-‐100
-‐150
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
FRONTIER
DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
Inflation tracker
FDC offers a source of inflation tracking that is unavailable through other data vendors. Inflation
figures reported by official governments often lack both transparency and reliability. We allow
users to obtain unbiased data obtained directly
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from market-level sources. Without the filter of Food & Foodstuffs
government channels, our subscribing clients have Garments & Footwear
Housing, Electricity, Water, Fuel, & Construction Materials
access to up-to-date consumer price data on a Household Goods & Equipment
weekly basis and possess an information advantage Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
over competitors relying on government statistics. Transportation
Post & Telecommunications
We cover the following consumer price baskets Education
which in various combinations constitute inflation Culture / Sport & Entertainment
indices worldwide.
Our inflation tracker combines our unique data with methodologies used worldwide to calculate
consumer price indices.
Figure 4: FDC proprietary inflation tracker (July 2012- January 2013)
FDC
InClation
Tracker
-‐
Saudi
Arabia
0.35%
0.33%
0.30%
0.25%
%
CPI
change
0.20%
0.15%
0.08%
0.11%
0.10%
0.05%
0.05%
0.02%
0.00%
0.00%
July
August
October
November
December
January
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
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DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
APPLICATIONS FOR MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS
Our data is designed to help firms penetrate promising markets obscured by lack of data
transparency. Some data continues to be collected by outside organizations such as international
financial institutions, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the United Nations.
However, this collection tends to be yearly and geared toward long-term development strategies—
simply insufficient to meaningfully help an organization enter, or even fully understand, a
developing market. By contrast, we provide a continuous stream of customizable data that
conveys underlying political risk and macro-economic stability conditions. For example, we have
observed wide dispersion in the price of one liter of unleaded gasoline across our core coverage
markets, with Israel and Palestine ranking the highest in December 2012.
Figure 5: Pump price of one liter of unleaded gasoline in select FDC countries
Pump
price
of
unleaded
gasoline
in
select
FDC
countries
(Dec
2012)
$2.50
Unleaded
Gasoline
$USD
$2.00
$1.50
(1
Liter)
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
Pricing
Warren Buffett once said, “The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing
power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got
a very good business.”1 Leading companies often lack systematic methods for understanding
pricing—fewer than 5% of Fortune 500 companies have a full-time function dedicated to pricing,
1
A. Frye and D. Campbell, “Buffett Says Pricing Power More Important than Good Management,” February 18, 2011,
http://bloomberg.com.
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according to the Professional Pricing Society.2 Furthermore, many companies distribute products
into core markets knowing they will end up in another non-core market at different prices
without knowing fully what drives the changes in those prices. FDC’s unique pricing data can
remedy these information gaps and assist companies in identifying price patterns at the level of
the end-user in those frontier markets. For example, we observed an average premium of about
43% for the price of an iPhone in Ethiopia over the same product in Brazil.
Figure 6: iPhone 4S (16GB) prices at point-of-sale across select FDC markets
Point-‐of-‐sale
price
of
iPhone
4S
in
select
FDC
countries
(Nov-‐Dec
2012)
$1,600
$1,383
$1,400
$1,123
$1,200
$966
$1,000
$810
$800
$720
$666
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0
Brazil
Ethiopia
India
Indonesia
Libya
Pakistan
Turkey
Credit markets and banking
Consumer behavior in emerging markets is often closely linked to credit market development and
the health of banking institutions. In countries where banking systems are opaque and a
fundamental gap exists between media and government agencies and bank reporting channels,
Frontier Data Corp delivers trustworthy, consistent information on metrics in consumer credit
and bank lending patterns. For example, our data can be used to track weekly spreads between
interbank lending, deposit rates, and consumer lending rates. Clients are able to observe the
growth of bank capital and the ease with which consumers access credit by monitoring key
spreads. For example, we observed an 11% difference in the deposit / consumer loan spreads
2
Andreas Hinterhuber and Stephan Liozu, “Is It Time to Rethink Your Pricing Strategy?” MIT Sloan Review, June 19, 2012,
http://sloanreview.mit.edu.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
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earned by retail banks in Vietnam over the equivalent in Iraq—this data reflects a high level of
cash hoarding by banks and a constricted lending environment in view of rapidly rising inflation
toward the end of 2012 (CPI gained 7.08% in November from a year earlier).
Table 3: Deposit and Lending Rates in select FDC countries
Country Deposit Rate (%) Consumer Loan Lending Rate (%) Spread earned (%)
Iraq 1.0 Auto 5.5 4.5
Saudi Arabia 0.4 Credit Card 2.2 1.8
Vietnam 2.0 Auto 17.5 15.5
Colombia 0.0 Housing 12.7 12.7
Philippines 0.4 Housing 13.0 12.6
Cambodia 1.3 Housing 12.0 10.7
Myanmar 8.0 Housing 10.0 2.0
Israel 0.2 Housing 3.0 2.8
BEYOND THE BRICS: LOCAL DATA IN MACRO COUNTRY GROUPINGS
The McKinsey Global Institute estimates annual consumption in emerging markets will reach $30
trillion by 2025, compared to $34 trillion in developed markets.3 Our data enables corporations
to be uniquely positioned to seize those unprecedented opportunities in emerging markets and
make informed decisions across areas of corporate and business strategy, investments, and
political risk.
For example, using the cost-of-living methodology, our data allows a client to apply a fine-grained
approach to broad country groupings commonly used in economics and finance and observe
underlying similarities and differences. The CIVETS countries include Columbia, Indonesia,
Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa. We observed the following purchasing power parities
for an entry-level police officer in each of those countries:
Table 4: Entry-level police officer’s purchasing power in CIVETS (ex South Africa)
Columbia Indonesia Vietnam Egypt Turkey
0.51x 0.27x 0.74x 0.18x 0.55x
The data suggests that entry-level civil servant salaries equal roughly comparable household
purchasing power across some CIVETS countries (notably Colombia and Turkey), but are
considerably lower in others. For example, a police officer in Egypt has less than half the
3
McKinsey
Global
Institute,
August
2012,
“Winning
the
$30
trillion
Decathlon”.
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purchasing power covering his monthly cost-of-living than a police officer in Turkey. Our data
enables the user to penetrate these economies to deep levels, down to individual salaries and their
respective costs of living.
Figure 7: Food prices in select “Next 11” countries
Food
prices
in
select
NEXT
11
countries
(Dec
2012)
$5.00
Price
per
standardized
unit
(USD)
$4.50
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
Milk
(per
Liter)
$2.00
Chicken
(per
Kg)
$1.50
$1.00
Rice
(per
Kg)
$0.50
$0.00
Real estate & infrastructure
Real estate investors seeking untapped markets where pricing data is unavailable can find key
market information through FDC. Covering upmarket and downmarket commercial, residential
and industrial real estate, we penetrate major centers of growth and deliver pricing data for
standard properties. Furthermore, we collect data on infrastructure development trends,
providing retail pricing for the cost of major building materials such as steel and concrete. For
example, we observed high steel prices in Saudi Arabia on the back of strong domestic demand
and the kingdom’s resilience to the global construction downturn, with multi-billion dollar
infrastructure and private construction projects underway.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
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Figure 8: Building material costs in select frontier markets (all values USD)
Building
material
costs
in
select
frontier
markets
(Nov-‐Dec
2012)
Steel/ton Concrete/ton
$3,500
$400
Resilience
to
$350
$3,000
global
construction
$300
$2,500
downturn
$250
$2,000
$200
$1,500
Steel
$150
$1,000
Concrete
$100
$500
$50
$0
$0
Our data captures disparities in the cost of ownership vs. renting properties across our coverage
countries. In residential real estate markets where property values can be significantly distorted
by government-imposed rent controls and other interventions, we provide insights into relative
pricing of property values in major cities for average urban dwellings and the premiums accrued
by property-owners on those real estate assets.
For example, our data allows a user to compare the ratio of the purchase price per sq. meter of up-
market and down-market properties to the equivalent rental price, indicating potential under- or
over-valuing of residential properties. In Indonesia we are observing that owners of residential
properties pay 396x the rental price for one sq. meter of an average apartment dwelling. This may
be attributable to artificial protection of land ownership resulting from the fact that foreigners are
prohibited from owning high residential properties such as condominiums. Most residential
condo complexes are not built on land with “Hak Pakai” titles that can be converted to foreign
ownership.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
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Table 5: Purchase-to-Rent ratios for one sq. meter of upmarket and downmarket residential
property in major cities
Country Brazil Colombia Jordan Indonesia Philippines India Lebanon Tunisia Argentina
Upmarket 250x 200x 9x 63x 27x 500x 187x 175x 89x
Downmarket 347x 218x 12x 396x 21x 167x 196x 134x 29x
We also track the number of tower cranes found in capital cities, thus providing a ground up
understanding of construction trends.
Figure 9: Crane counts in select Next 11 countries (December 2012; most populous cities)
Crane
counts
in
select
Next
11
countries
(Dec
2012)
90
77
80
67
70
60
55
50
40
35
30
20
8
10
3
0
Egypt
Indonesia
Pakistan
Philippines
Turkey
Vietnam
FRONTIER DATA CORP “EDGE” COUNTRIES
FDC is currently positioned to be the leading provider of data in !"#$%&'"()*%*(+#",(-./0'(+#1$%"&'2-
countries entering periods of dramatic economic transition and
South Asia Africa
opening their doors to global investment and trade. For example, Afghanistan South Sudan
we are collecting data in Myanmar, a country in which the IMF Pakistan Nigeria
estimated direct foreign investment to rise 40 percent to an Libya
Middle East Tunisia
estimated $3.99bn USD in 2012. We are similarly collecting in Syria
newly-emerging countries on the “edge” of global trade and Egypt Southeast Asia
Iraq Myanmar
investment owing to violent political transitions, such as Libya
Yemen
and Afghanistan, or continuous intermittent political violence, Lebanon Central Asia
such as Sudan and the Palestinian territories. Our edge country Jordan Kazakhstan
coverage spans Asia, Africa, and the Middle East / North Africa.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
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SURPRISES & “OUTLIERS”
Companies and investors often benefit disproportionately from spotting opportunities where
extreme data points lie. FDC’s dataset allows clients to instantly identify those points in our
cross-country sample. For example, we observed electricity rates in the Philippines and Thailand
to be priced at a premium of 233% and 200% respectively, over the median rate in our FDC
coverage universe.
Figure 10: Electricity rates per kilowatt-hour in select FDC countries
Electricity
rates
in
select
FDC
countries
Cambodia
India
Turkey
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Colombia
Philippines
Thailand
S.
Africa
Palestine
Lebanon
Pakistan
Kazakhstan
Israel
Tunisia
Brazil
Argentina
Median
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
$
(USD)
per
kilowatt
hour
December
2012
CONCLUSION
As most OECD markets are projected to experience anemic growth in the next decade, Frontier
Data Corp is positioned to be a lead partner in helping companies and investors discover
opportunities in countries that represent the future of 21st century economic growth. We are
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
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embedded like no other company around the world, creating transparency with ground-level data
that can drive sound investment and market entry decisions. To explore those opportunities with
confidence, Frontier Data Corp is an indispensable navigational tool for steering through the
complexity and risks involved in conducting business in the most difficult yet promising markets
in the world.
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TERRA INCOGNITA: INVESTMENT AND TRADING
STRATEGIES IN FRONTIER MARKETS
FRONTIER
DATA CORP
New York • Washington, DC • Dubai
APPENDIX
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East Asia Middle East Africa Latin America
China Syria South Africa Argentina
Egypt South Sudan Brazil
Southeast Asia Turkey Kenya Colombia
Indonesia Iraq Nigeria Mexico
Vietnam Saudi Arabia Uganda
Philippines Yemen Libya Europe
Thailand Israel Ethiopia Russia
Myanmar Lebanon
Cambodia Palestine South Asia Central Asia
Malaysia Jordan India Kazakhstan
Afghanistan
Pakistan
!"#$%&'"()*%*(+#",(-(+#"'()*%*(+#.'"*/'
1. Construction worker salary 19. Cost of chicken 37. Steel – 1 ton
2. Lawyer salary 20. Cost of beer 38. Commercial down market - rent
3. Police officer (entry level) salary 21. Cost of liter of cooking oil 39. Commercial up-market - rent
4. Doctor salary 22. Cost of liter of milk 40. Residential down market - rent
5. Soldier (private, infantry) 23. Cost of loaf of bread 41. Residential up-market - rent
6. Ground transport - long distance 24. Cost of rice 42. Commercial down market - purchase
7. Taxi trip - short distance 25. Cost of can of Coca-Cola 43. Commercial up-market - purchase
8. New car cost, mid size 26. Cost of water 44. Residential down market - purchase
9. Unleaded gasoline - liter 27. Cost of refrigerator, medium size 45. Residential up-market - purchase
10. Diesel fuel - liter 28. Cost of desktop computer 46. Industrial real estate rent
11. Hawalla or other money transfer 29. Cost of shirt 47. Cost for cell phone service, prepaid
12. Personal bank deposit rates - local currency 30. Cost of shoes 48. Cost for cell phone service, subscription
13. Personal lending rate - housing 31. Electricity rate 49. Cost of iPhone
14. Unofficial exchange rate 32. Cost of personal generator 50. Cost of low end cell phone
15. Sales / VAT tax 33. Home oil – 1 liter 51. Internet connection rates
16. Cost of aspirin 34. Hotel room rate 52. SIM card
17. Cost of penicillin 35. Tuition rate 53. Number of cranes in city
18. Cost of doctor's visit 36. Concrete – 1 ton
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