The Benchmark Wealth It's a Feeling - Absa Stockbrokers

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The Benchmark Wealth It's a Feeling - Absa Stockbrokers
The Benchmark
Absa Wealth Management         April, 2018

                          Wealth
                          It’s a Feeling.

Special Features

Monetary Policy:
Curiouser and curiouser

South AfricaThe Most
Unequal Country In The
World

Wealth Trends

The 2018 Knight Frank
Wealth Report
The Benchmark Wealth It's a Feeling - Absa Stockbrokers
Contents

           Winston’s Word                                 2
           House View                                     3
           Monetary Policy: Curiouser and curiouser      10
           South AfricaThe Most Unequal Country In The   12
           World
           Fiduciary Focus                               14
           Focus on Philanthropy                         16
           Wealth Trends                                 18
           News Roundup                                  20
           What did The Economist Say                    21
           Fund Performance                              24
           Smarty Boxes                                  26
           Disclaimer                                    30
The Benchmark Wealth It's a Feeling - Absa Stockbrokers
Winston’s Word
We catch up on the events currently shaping the global economy, at a
challenging time.

There is more evidence that South Africa       The economy grew by 1.3% in 2017
is on an improved growth path. Hot on          compared with a revised 0.6% in 2016, as
the heels of Moody’s’ decision to keep the     reported by Statistics South Africa
sovereign credit rating unchanged at one       (StatsSA) on 06 March 2018.
notch above junk, fellow ratings agency
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) raised its gross       What these numbers demonstrate is an
domestic product (GDP) growth forecast         economy on the mend. Even the official
for South Africa to 2% for 2018, from 1%       unemployment rate has eased,
previously. It also revised its forecast for   decreasing to 26.7% in the fourth quarter
2019 up to 2.1%, from 1.7% before.             of 2017 from 27.7% in the previous
                                               period. In spite of this however, the
Both these decisions are due to improved       country remains highly unequal as the
investor sentiment following the positive      World Bank recently reported – read more
political changes that led to the swearing     on its findings’ in the “South Africa, The
in of Cyril Ramaphosa as the country’s         Most Unequal Country in the World”
new president. A more favorable inflation      feature. We also feature the “2018 Knight    Winston Monale
outlook has also given the South African       Frank Wealth Report” which sees South        Managing Executive, Wealth
Reserve Bank (SARB) room to ease               Africa’s ultra-wealthy (people with US$50    Management: Africa
monetary policy, and that is exactly what      million or more in net assets) growing by
the Monetary Policy Committee                  20% over the next five years following a
(MPC) did, cutting the repo rate by 25         14% rise in 2017.
basis points to 6.5% and the prime
lending rate to 10%. The last time the         All of this and more in this month’s
central bank cut the repo rate was in July     edition of The Benchmark. Enjoy.
2017 in a surprise move that left the rand
on the back foot. Back then, SARB
Governor, Lesetja Kganyago stated that
inflation remained a risk amid a
deteriorating economic growth outlook.

Since then, the domestic economy has
recovered some ground, growing by 3.1%
between October and December 2017,
the highest rate since the second quarter
of 2016, after expanding by a revised
2.3% in the third quarter.
The Benchmark Wealth It's a Feeling - Absa Stockbrokers
House View
Local Economic and Market Outlook

Local Macroeconomic Outlook                   Local Market Outlook

GDP Outlook                                   Bonds
South Africa’s real gross domestic            In recent months, rand denominated
product (GDP) surprised on the upside in      bonds have enjoyed good support from a
the fourth quarter of 2017, registering an    resilient rand and renewed optimism
economic growth figure of 1.3% year-on-       regarding the growth outlook of the
year, which is 0.4% points higher than        South African economy. Fiscal
consensus estimates.                          consolidation measures and the decision
                                              by rating agency Moody’s to leave the
Recent growth drivers have reflected          local credit rating unchanged at one notch
more of a cyclical recovery than a lasting    above investment grade with a stable
uptrend. The notable growth in the            outlook momentarily lowered the risk
                                                                                             Keorapetse Leballo
agricultural sector mainly from subsiding     premium attached to these securities.
                                                                                             Investment Strategist, GI&S
draught effects is expected to moderate
as the shock becomes fully absorbed in        Looking ahead, we envisage limited room
forthcoming GDP prints.                       for further yield compression on the back
                                              of: twin deficits from the fiscal and
The recent rally of the rand is also          current balances; a negative output gap;
forecast to weaken mining industry            and low corporate profitability levels that
production levels and anchor trade            will likely induce benign capital spending
deficits over the next few quarters to        and higher costs of servicing debt. Our
come. Fiscal consolidation measures           weaker outlook for the rand and a pick-up
announced in the previous budget              in inflation rates from current levels also
statement infer subdued government            suggests a tactical overweight in inflation-
spending that is likely to reduce the         linked bonds over the next 12 months.
recent GDP growth momentum.
                                              Listed Property
We look towards improved business and         We have marginally reduced our exposure
consumer confidence figures,                  to local property in an attempt to take        Ricardo Smith
expansionary Purchasing Manager’s             some currency risk off the table. This         Investment Strategist, GI&S
Indices and an up-tick in global economic     asset class is rapidly increasing its
activity to bolster local economic activity   offshore earnings exposure, thereby
over the next two years. To this end, we      inducing multiple layers of rand-hedge
have marginally revised our previous GDP      attributes which we are already obtaining
forecasts from 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent     from our offshore equity and local high
in 2018 and from 1.7 percent to 1.8           cap equity allocations.
percent in 2019.                              Considering that this asset class has
                                              recently dipped, we still hold some
Inflation Outlook                             allocation that will allow us to participate
On the 28th of March 2018, the South          on the upside in the event that prices of
African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary        these counters re-rate at higher levels.
Policy Committee (MPC) announced their        Interest rate geared earnings and
decision to cut the repo rate by 25 basis-    currency-hedged growth continues to
points. The MPC’s decision comes on the       justify a cautious yet long SA REIT
back of: an improved inflation outlook; an    position within the asset allocation
over-valued currency; and low demand          portfolios.
pull inflationary threats stemming from
decreasing household credit extensions.
The Benchmark Wealth It's a Feeling - Absa Stockbrokers
House View
Global Economic Outlook

Equities                                      to declare a breakout in employee
Valuations in the equity market appear        compensation. Furthermore, historic
stretched in the absence of a strong          trends reveal that transition from higher
earnings catalyst in maintaining the 2017     employee compensation into actual
rally of the All Share index. Lofty price     economy-wide inflation is itself a slow and
earnings multiples are expected to            non-linear process.
continue exerting downward pressure on
dividend growth rates, while the volatility   Any reduction in the unemployment rate
of the rand remains set to threaten           below the current 4 percent is likely to
foreign earnings on rand-hedged counters      translate in hyper-inflationary threats that
in the short term.                            would force the Federal Open Market
                                              Committee (FOMC) to raise interest rates
Increasing global inflationary pressures      sharply. Nonetheless, inflationary
conversely point toward renewed               tailwinds should slowly gather in the
weaknesses in the value of the rand           coming years, amidst increasing
which is expected to bode well for            economic activity.
counters with foreign earnings exposure
over the next 12 to 18 months.            Euro area
Furthermore, improved global economic     The Eurozone economy enjoyed a broad-
prospects are also expected to contribute based recovery last year, with
positively to the medium term return      consumption boosted by rising                      Increasing global
outlook of this asset class.              employment. Some of this growth has                inflationary pressures
                                          eased, as evidenced by the latest                  conversely point toward
We recommend shorting financials in       Eurozone PMI Composite and                         renewed weaknesses in
favour of consumer staples on the back of Manufacturing indices.                             the value of the rand
increasing risk premiums and low                                                             which is expected to
household credit extensions. Given rising However, in-spite of the recent short-             bode well for counters
inflationary headwinds and moderating     term decline in these indices, they remain         with foreign earnings
dividend growth rates, we are currently   at historically elevated levels, and they
                                                                                             exposure over the next
pricing in a real return outlook that is  continue to signal robust growth ahead
                                                                                             12 to 18 months.
much softer than that of the previous     for the Eurozone. We forecast the Euro
year.                                     area’s economy to expand by 2.2% year-
                                          on-year and 2.0% year-on-year in 2018
Global Economic Outlook                   and 2019 respectively.

United States                                 Asia
The latest US wage data surprised             With cyclical indicators continuing to
economists to the upside triggering a         trend upwards, prospects for the
bout of inflation optimism amongst            Japanese economy remain positive. A
market participants. However, the upside      more favourable domestic and external
came mainly from a minority subset of         economic backdrop has made us more
the sampled workforce, supervisory            positive about the trajectory of Japanese
employees, whose wage growth tends to         corporate profits. Dividend payout ratios
be volatile. Excluding this group, gains      are also on a steady upward trend – a
were more muted, in line with previous        nascent sign that government reforms to
trends.                                       alter corporate behaviour and improve
                                              shareholder returns may be starting to
Wage gains would need to broaden              bear fruit.
materially over the coming months for us

                                                                  4
House View
Global Market Outlook

While Japan has managed to pull itself out      portfolios. This ultimately means that an
of sustained deflation, core inflation still    investor looking to grow assets above
remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2        inflation will have to accept an investment
percent target. We therefore see no             portfolio that will be reasonably correlated
change to the Bank of Japan’s                   to equity markets over time.
accommodative stance as we move into
2018. We also expect Japanese fiscal
policy to continue to support economic
growth.

Global Market Outlook

The bond market, which until six months
ago seemed vulnerable to the threat of
deflation, now looks better equipped to
handle the reality of more rate hikes.
Yields across all maturities likely have
further to rise still; an era of low yields
seems to be coming to an end.

Furthermore the period of calm enjoyed
                                                                                               As with all such
by markets since last year was finally                                                         moments, investors can
shattered in February, with global stock                                                       take a while to find their
markets experiencing a sharp pullback.                                                         feet as perceived norms
The health of the global economy and the                                                       are inverted.
resulting corporate profitability, however,
remain positive for global stock markets.

As with all such moments, investors can
take a while to find their feet as perceived
norms are inverted. However, with the
prospects for economic growth still
looking firm, and signs of overheating still
substantially absent, equities continue to
offer the most attractive returns.

Valuations are high in the US stock
market, but more normal elsewhere. Even
assuming some medium-term headwind
from valuations, the excess returns
available from stocks look attractive in a
strategic context relative to high-quality
bonds. Equity still offers attractive long-
term, risk-adjusted returns.

Although equity markets are not the only
source of investor returns, it is stocks that
are going to provide the bulk of the long-
term returns and volatility to investment
House View
Economic Summaries

                                     Local                                            Global
 Growth      The economy of South Africa is likely to            Prospects for the world economy seem a bit
             expand at less than full potential over the         brighter over the next two years, as evidenced
             next two years. Sub-investment ratings, a           by a pickup in leading economic indicators
             volatile currency and poor corporate                across major world economies. However,
             profitability levels, are expected to increase      fiscal policy uncertainties and low household
             the cost of servicing debt, where companies         consumption rates continue to threaten the
             will be forced to either cut capital spending,      medium term global economic outlook. Global
             undergo debt stress or reduce labour force.         economic activity is now forecast to expand
             We therefore expect unemployment rates to           by 4.0% and 3.8% over the next two years
             remain stubbornly above 25% over the                respectively.
             foreseeable future.

 Inflation   Challenges to CPI moderation or even a low          Notwithstanding historically low
             and stable inflation print continue to linger.      unemployment rates, policy makers continue
             These challenges stem from stubbornly high          to remain concerned by weak demand
             meat price inflation, increasing administered       pressures which are forecast to anchor global
             costs and pass through inflationary                 core inflation rates well below target.
             headwinds from oil price normalisation. We          Conversely, low US unemployment rates, a
             therefore expect inflation to remain                weak US dollar and renewed growth
             uncomfortably range bound over the medium           optimism and above target inflation rates
             term, with strong upside limitations from           currently infer restrictive Fed interest rate
             benign consumption propensities.                    policy intervention over the short to medium
                                                                 term.

 Exchange    Although the rand is still undervalued against      A gradual removal of excess monetary supply
 rates       the dollar from a purchasing power parity           and resilient economic conditions are set to
             perspective, faltering growth and a high            benefit G10 currencies relative to their
             inflation differential with our trading partners,   emerging market counterparts. Restrictive
             make it unlikely for the currency to                Fed policy is set to correct any short-term
             strengthen above the ZAR10 level again. We          devaluation of the US dollar, while an
             are currently pricing in a rand depreciation        increasing current account surplus in the euro
             that is broadly in line with inflation              area suggests a renewed appreciation in the
             differentials between SA and G10 economies.         euro against most G10 and emerging market
                                                                 currencies.

                                                        6
House View
House View Matrix

House view matrix

    Asset Class              View                                       Rationale

SA Equities            Neutral      The absence of a strong earnings catalyst with a number of counters already
                                    trading above fair value currently mutes short-term appetite. We favour rand
                                    hedged stocks on the back of a correction in G10 currencies to improve the
                                    medium term return outlook.
SA Property            Bearish      Interest rate geared earnings and currency-hedged growth continues to justify
                                    a cautious yet long SA REIT position within the asset allocation portfolios. The
                                    recent dip in performance and limited room in yield compression has led to the
                                    marginal reduction in exposure to this asset class.
SA Bonds               Neutral      Weak economic activity and increasing inflation expectations favour a duration
                                    neutral strategy. High budget deficits and growing threats a weaker rand
                                    outlook is conversely prone to bid yields high in the medium term.

SA Cash                Bullish      The risk-reward profile of cash and short-term maturity bonds appears
                                    fundamentally strong relative to other asset classes. We expect short-term
                                    yields to appreciate slower than long term yields in response to currency and
                                    macroeconomic risks.
Commodities            Bearish      US monetary policy normalisation and shifts from industrialisation to
                                    consumption led economic policies in China are set to keep the commodity risk
                                    premium unattractive for extended time periods. Increased exposure towards
                                    energy commodities may be justified by planned production cuts.

DM Equities            Neutral      A strengthening dollar is expected to undermine US equity earnings while the
                                    ongoing pick up in global inflation should lead to better pricing power and
                                    attractive nominal returns for developed market equities. Long developed
                                    market equities relative to emerging market counterparts.

DM Bonds               Bearish      Valuations indicate that these securities are currently trading at a significant
                                    premium, where real returns appear to be particularly stretched on the back of
                                    increasing inflation expectations.

DM Property            Bearish      Due to low diversification benefits, this asset class remains a tactical call as it
                                    carries a high level of systematic risk relative to the DM equity index. Limited
                                    room for yield compression anchors yet another reason we remain reluctant to
                                    hold offshore REITS over the medium term.

Source: GI&S Africa, March 2018
House View
Key Macroeconomic Projections

Economic Forecasts

                                             Real GDP (%)                              Consumer prices (%)

                              2017E              2018F      2019F              2017E         2018F            2019F
 Global                         3.9                   4.0       3.8             2.1            2.3             2.3
 Advanced                       2.1                   2.1       1.8             1.8            1.8             1.8
 Emerging                       5.2                   5.3       5.2             2.6            2.9             2.9
 United States                  2.2                   2.3       1.9             2.1            2.2             2.0
 Euro area                      2.3                   2.2       2.0             1.5            1.5             1.6
 Japan                          1.5                   1.6       1.2             0.5            0.6             1.1
 United Kingdom                 1.5                   1.3       1.3             2.7            2.4             2.2
 China                          6.8                   6.4       6.2             1.6            2.2             2.0
 Brazil                         1.0                   2.4       2.3             3.5            4.0             4.5
 India                          6.3                   7.6       7.6             3.1            4.6             4.5
 Russia                         2.0                   1.8       1.5             3.7            4.1             4.3
 South Africa                   1.3                   1.6       1.8             4.7            5.2             5.3

Source: Barclays, GI&S Africa, Bloomberg March 2018

Currency Forecasts

 Time                                 USDZAR                          EURZAR                         GBPZAR

 Spot                                   11.83                          14.58                          16.63

 1 month                                11.88                          14.67                          16.72

 3 months                               12.00                          14.88                          16.93

 6 months                               12.17                          15.19                          17.22

 1 year                                 12.51                          15.84                          17.81

 2 years                                12.90                          16.84                          18.65

 3 years                                13.52                          18.16                          19.86

Source: GI&S Africa, Bloomberg, March 2018

                                                            8
House View
Market Forecasts

Market Forecasts

                                            2015   2016       2017   2018F      3 Yr. Ann F

 South Africa – ZAR denominated

 Equities – JSE All Share                   5.1     2.6       21.0    8.2            10.4

 Bonds – Beassa ALBI                        -3.9   15.4       10.2    7.4             6.2

 Property – JSE SA Listed Property          8.0    10.2       17.2    6.2             8.3

 Cash – STeFI Composite                     6.5    7.4        7.6     6.3             6.9

 Commodities – Bloomberg commodity          0.9    -1.4       -7.9   -2.1             0.3

 Alternatives- ASISA SA MA Low Equity       7.6    3.6        8.4     7.3             6.5

 Global market – Base currency

 United States – S&P 500                    1.4    12.0       21.8    8.7             9.1

 United Kingdom – FTSE 100                  -1.3   19.1       12.0   10.6             8.0

 Europe – Euro Stoxx 50                     7.3    4.7        10.1    6.9             9.0

 Property – S&P Developed Property          0.9    5.4        13.2    3.1             4.6

 Source: GI&S Africa, March 2018

Strategic Asset Allocation

                                    High                  Medium              Low
 Local Equities                    33.95%                 26.25%             19.95%
 Offshore Equities                 24.25%                 18.75%             14.25%
 Local Property                    8.87%                  6.86%              5.21%
 Offshore Property                 0.00%                  0.00%              0.00%
 Local Bonds                       11.73%                 9.07%              6.89%
 Offshore Bonds                    0.00%                  0.00%              0.00%
 Commodities                       0.00%                  0.00%              0.00%
 Alternatives                      18.20%                 14.07%             10.69%
 Cash                              3.00%                  25.00%             43.00%

Source: GI&S Africa, March 2018
Monetary Policy
Curiouser and curiouser

The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African
Reserve Bank (SARB) to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bp) from
6.75% to 6.50% came as no surprise to the market.

Although the local interest rate market       2019 and 5,1% in 2020 with core
had almost fully priced in the rate cut and   inflation (which excludes food, fuel and
consensus in the polls of information         electricity) of 4,6% in 2018 and 4,9% in
providers such as Bloomberg and               both 2019 and 2020.
Thomson Reuters were for lower rates,
the MPC outcome was never a foregone          Very positively, inflation expectations
conclusion. The fact that four of the         moderated in the first quarter of the year
committee’s seven members voted for           and the SARB has always stressed the
more relaxed policy while three voted to      importance of well-anchored inflation
retain the status quo, leads one to believe   expectations. If inflation is expected to
that there was much to ponder and             move higher then price setting behaviour       Craig B Pheiffer
debate around the MPC table. Indeed if        (on goods and labour) is self-fulfilling and   Chief Investment Strategist,
Alice in Wonderland was in town and           pushes inflation higher. While the SARB        Absa Stockbrokers and Portfolio
peered at that table through her looking      has a preference for inflation expectations    Management
glass, she would not have been surprised      to be anchored at the midpoint of the
by the final result but she may have cried    target range at 4,5%, the improvement in
“curiouser and curiouser” at one or two of    average expectations for 2018 of 5,2%
the assumptions and forecasts of the          from 5,7% and for 2019 of 5,3% from
committee.                                    5,9% was welcomed. Average
                                              expectations for inflation in 2020 were
The MPC’s revised inflation outlook was       introduced at 5,4% while five-year
always going to take centre stage, as it      inflation expectations reached their
should for an inflation-targeting central     lowest point in the eight year history of
bank, but of particular interest was how      the survey at 5,3%. The overall                 When all of the numbers
the SARB was going to assess the impact       assessment of the MPC was that the risks        had been crunched, the
of the VAT rate hike and the continued        to the inflation forecast were more or less     inflation outlook had
strength of the rand on the future path of    evenly balanced. The rand was considered        improved moderately
inflation. When all of the numbers had        to be moderately overvalued but to pose         although the MPC
been crunched, the inflation outlook had      a lesser risk to the inflation outlook.         admitted that the low
improved moderately although the MPC                                                          point in the inflation cycle
admitted that the low point in the            As the King in “The King and I” might say,
                                                                                              had been reached in Q1
inflation cycle had been reached in Q1        none of this so far could be considered a
                                                                                              2018 at a forecast rate of
2018 at a forecast rate of 4,1%. This         “puzzlement”. What is a bit “curiouser”
                                              though is the link between the output of
                                                                                              4,1%.
implies that the 4,0% y/y increase
recorded in February was very likely the      the SARB’s primary policy forecasting tool,
nadir for consumer price inflation. From      the Quarterly Projection Model (“QPM”)
that low point, the SARB expects the next     and actual policy. There is clearly a
peak in inflation to come in Q1 2019 at       qualitative input to policy decisions that
5,5% and then soften again as the VAT         the seven committee members provide
rate hike falls out of the base. The          and the governor has been at pains to
increase in VAT is expected to add 0,6        explain that the MPC will not necessarily
percentage points to the inflation rate for   slavishly or mechanistically follow the
the year following the rate hike to 15%.      model’s directive. At recent meetings the
Overall, the SARB expects the headline        QPM has been pointing to monetary
CPI to average 4,9% in 2018, 5,2% in          policy tightening of between 50bp and

                                                                10
Monetary Policy
Curiouser and curiouser

 The SARB’s fan chart forecast of the repo rate (%) from the QPM

 Source: SARB Interest Rate Forecast accompanying the MPC Statement of 28 March 2018

75bp by end-2019 and at the last           Given the improving picture painted by        possible. The SARB pegs its decisions on
meeting the policy path implied by the     the SARB, the “stumble” in GDP growth in      the latest available data and its two year
model was 25bp of tightening by end-       2019 is a little at odds with that positive   outlook and oft times this is open to a
2019 and 50bp of tightening in 2020. The   outlook. While the MPC acknowledged           different interpretation by the market and
model does target the mid-point of the     that risks to the growth forecasts were       opens the door for some uncertainty
inflation target range but even so, the    moderately to the upside, they did            when the governor steps up to the
MPC policy outcome is in the opposite      reiterate that sustained levels of higher     podium to pronounce on policy.
direction to the model outcome. The        growth would be dependent on sustained        Nevertheless, South Africa is blessed with
SARB’s fan chart of the probable outcome   levels of confidence, higher levels of        an independent central bank that is
                                           investment and real structural reforms by
of the repo rate reflects a rising trend over                                            transparent and constantly evolving to be
the next few years yet the MPC saw fit to  government. During the National Budget,       even more open. Today we are privileged
reduce the repo rate in light of its       the Finance Minister forecast annual GDP      to have the SARB publish the economic
improved inflation outlook and the         growth rates of 1,5%, 1,8% and 2,1% for       assumptions that drive their thinking and
general reduction in inflation             the next three respective years. This talks   we also get to know how the MPC voting
expectations.                              to a little more of an even-paced recovery    went down – all things we didn’t have
                                           than the version envisaged by the SARB.       before. Now we just have to figure out
Another bit of “puzzlement” is the SARB’s Time will tell who is right but at these       how the QPM fits into it all.
forecast growth rates for the next few     rates of growth South Africa won’t be
years. Factoring in greater confidence and able to make any dent into its hefty
a growing global economy, the SARB         unemployment rate.
upped its domestic growth outlook for
2018 from 1,4% to 1,7% but cut its         Most times the central bank would like
forecast for 2019 from 1,6% to 1,5%. For the market not to be surprised by its
2020 the central bank pencilled in growth policy decisions but with input variables
of 2,0%.                                   changing by the minute, that’s not always
South AfricaThe Most Unequal Country In The
World

Since the dawn of democracy in 1994,       Consumption growth
consumption inequality in South Africa     South Africa also lags its peers on the
has been on the rise making the country    inclusiveness of consumption growth.
one of the most unequal in the world,      Inclusiveness in this case is examined by
according to the World Bank’s findings     comparing the rate of consumption
detailed below.                            growth for the bottom 40% of the
                                           population to that of comparator
Analysis of the distribution of            countries as well as Sub-Saharan Africa
consumption expenditure per capita in      and the world. The result: the bottom
the recent Living Conditions Survey        40% had consumption growth of 3.5%
2014/15 found that the country had a       between 2006 and 2011, with a
Gini coefficient of 0.63 in 2015, the      deceleration of 1.4% for the period
highest in the world and an increase since between 2011 and 2015. This does not
1994. Further analysis of consumption      compare well with the median for the
expenditure trends provides evidence that world (3.9%) or, in the later period, with
                                                                                       Zukelwa Solomon
the very poor (those in the bottom 10%) Sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa’s BRICS
                                                                                       Collateral Writer, GI&S
grew at a slower pace than the rest of the partners (Brazil, Russia, and China) fare
population between 2006.                   better than South Africa in terms of
                                           inclusiveness of growth.

                                                             12
South AfricaThe Most Unequal Country In The
 World

Wealth inequality                            The wages between the two extremes are         opportunity in South Africa is high relative
Wealth inequality is also high and has       highly unequal - those with highly paid        to its comparators. This is further
been growing over time. The net wealth       jobs earn nearly five times the average        compounded by low intergenerational
inequality is even higher than               wage in low skilled jobs, yet they             mobility, which is an obstacle to
consumption inequality in South Africa,      constitute less than a fifth of the total      inequality reduction. Intergenerational
although there is strong correlation         working population. Thus, while a              mobility in South Africa is low in
between levels of inequality in              segment of the population enjoys wages         comparison to other countries indicating
consumption and wealth, with wealth          that are on average equal to workers           an enduring link between life outcomes
remaining an important source of long-       living in developed economies, the wages       for a given generation versus those of the
run inequality. Analysis of wealth           of those at the lower end of the               previous generation.
inequality based on data from four rounds    distribution are comparable to those seen
of wealth surveys carried out by the         among the poorest countries. The               In summary, though overall, poverty
University of South Africa (UNISA)           persistence of high wage gaps is               levels in South Africa are lower today
between 2008 and 2015 suggests that          associated with the skills premiums and        compared to 1994, the World Bank says
the top percentile of households had         differences between unskilled, semi-           the country’s efforts to reduce poverty by
70.9% of the wealth and the bottom 60%       skilled, and high-skilled workers. With        2030 will depend on gross domestic
had 7% - richer households are almost 10     wages rising for skilled workers, the          product (GDP) growth and the reduction
times wealthier than poor households.        stagnation of wages for semiskilled            of income inequalities, the former being
                                             workers fuels the increase in wage             affected by access of the poorest groups
Financial inclusion                          inequality. In fact, workers in the middle     to economic opportunities, and fiscal
Ownership of financial assets features       of the distribution have witnessed an          redistribution. South Africa has slow
prominently among the factors that           erosion in the growth of their wages over      growth to poverty elasticity (that is how
influence wealth inequality. For the poor,   time, relative to the rest of the workforce    much poverty falls for each percentage
financial assets represent 36% of total      in the labour market. This is related to the   point in economic growth) due to the
assets compared to 75% for the rich.         shrinkage of semi-skilled employment and       extremely high level of income inequality.
Moreover, those with lower incomes and       their returns which points to the              Projected sluggish growth, coupled with
young to middle age groups have high         existence of a “missing middle” in the         recorded improvements in access of the
rates of indebtedness. This prevents         labour market.                                 poor to education (and eventually, skilled
many segments of the population from                                                        jobs) is likely to somewhat reduce
participating in asset accumulation and     Unequal opportunities:                          inequality and poverty in the coming
wealth building. Race and human capital     Inequality of opportunity, measured by          years (baseline scenario). Poverty rates
(education) have very high returns for      the influence of race, parents’ education,      (at the lower bound national poverty line)
wealth generation, even higher than in      parents’ occupation, place of birth, and        are projected to decrease from 40% of
the case of income or consumption           gender influence opportunities, is high. In     the population in 2016 to 33% in 2030
inequality.                                 a society where there is equality of            despite slow growth, as inequality would
                                            opportunity, these factors should not be        fall, with a Gini coefficient dropping from
Labour market                               relevant to reaching one’s full potential:      62.8 in 2017 to 59.5 in 2030.
The labour market is effectively split into ideally, only a person’s effort, innate
two extreme job types. At one extreme is talent, and choices in life would be the
a small number of people with highly paid influencing forces. Analysis of the
jobs in largely formal sectors and larger   proportion of children with access to a
enterprises, at the other extreme is most basic service, adjusted by how equitably
of the population, who work in jobs that    the service is distributed among groups
are often informal and pay less well. The differentiated by circumstances (via a
highly paid jobs are highly sticky: once    Human Opportunity Index), shows that
people find these jobs they are unlikely to opportunities among children in South
give them up. The less well-paying jobs     Africa vary widely depending on the types
are more fluid, more likely to employ new of service. An estimation of the inequality
entrants into the labour market, and more of opportunity index and its ratio to
likely to witness exits from employment. overall inequality found that inequality of
Fiduciary Focus
Section12J Investments

History                                       How does section 12j work?

The 2008 South African Budget Review           Sec 12J of the ITA allows an investor
found that one of the main challenges to      (individuals, companies and Trusts) a
the economic growth of small and              100% tax deduction in respect of any
medium-sized businesses was access to         investment into a VCC subject to certain
equity finance. Through Section 12J, the      conditions. The full amount invested in a
South African Government aims to              VCC is 100% deductible from taxable
stimulate the economy and promote             income in the year in which the
investment in South African private           investment is made. This benefit is
companies, whilst providing tax benefits      received when tax returns are filed. If the
to investors. Section 12J is designed to      investment is held for a minimum period
encourage individual and corporate            of 5 years, the tax benefit received at the
                                                                                              Ajanta Mayku
investors to invest in a range of smaller,    date of investment will become
                                                                                              Team Leader: Advisory
higher-risk trading companies by              permanent.
                                                                                              Specialists, Wealth and
investing through the Venture Capital
                                                                                              Investment Management
Companies (VCC).                              The VCC regime is subject to a 12 year
                                              sunset clause and ends on 30 June 2021.
Section 12J was introduced into the           Government will then review the efficacy
Income Tax Act (ITA) on 1 July 2009. – It     of the regime and decide if it should be
didn’t really gain traction because the tax   continued.
deduction by the investor was recouped
when the investor sold the shares. The         Example: A typical client/investor, a
qualifying investment was initially R20M.     natural person pays tax at 45%. The
In 2014, legislation was adjusted to make     investor invests R100 into a 12J company
the tax deduction permanent if the shares     and will receive a “refund” from SARS of
were held for 5 years. The investment         R45. If the investor holds the investment
threshold increased to R50M.                  for 5 years, this benefit becomes
                                              permanent.
Section 12J in a nutshell
                                              CGT will be payable at the end of 5 years
There are three parties.                      upon exiting the investment. The base
• Qualifying Investors will invest in an      cost will be zero. SARS is of the view that
  approved VCC in exchange for the            if 100% is claimed against taxable income
  issue of venture capital shares and         initially, you can’t then receive the benefit
  investor certificates.                      of “double deducting”.

• The approved VCC will, in turn, invest
  in qualifying investee companies in
  exchange for qualifying shares.

  Section 12J in a Nutshell

                                                                 14
Fiduciary Focus
Section12J Investments

Who qualifies to be an investor?                  consulting, auditing, or accounting.         party administrators?
                                                 (professional industries);                • Larger VCC companies, such as
Any taxpayer qualifies to invest in an        • Operating casinos or other gambling           Westbrook try to reduce investor risk
approved VCC. The approved VCC must              related  activities including any other      and usually approach SARS with a
                                                 games   of chance;                           template transaction in order to ensure
issue investor certificates to its investors,
                                              • Manufacturing, buying or selling liquor,      that they get a binding ruling on the
which will provide SARS with the proof
                                                 tobacco products or arms or                  investment strategy.
when the investor claims the relevant tax        ammunition; or
deduction. No deduction will be allowed       • Any trade carried on mainly outside the Legislative changes and no track record
where the taxpayer is a connected person         Republic.                                 of actual returns in most cases.
to the VCC at or immediately after the
acquisition of any venture capital share in There are no special tax rules for investee What happens in 2021?
that VCC. There is no minimum                 companies. The general tax rules will
investment amount in terms of                 apply.                                       Treasury will assess the efficacy of the
legislation, however many companies                                                        section 12J regime. No investor will be
stipulate a minimum – usually R500 000. Risks of sec 12j                                   granted a deduction after this date. Up till
There is no limit on the amount which can                                                  Feb 2021, an investor will receive the
be invested.                                  Within the Section 12J asset managers,       deduction and the fund will run for
                                              there are those that are involved in high    another 5 years.
Who qualifies to be an investee?              risk, startup companies. However, clients
                                              don’t have to take that type of high risk to It will need to be demonstrated to SARS
Investee must be a resident company and enjoy the tax benefits of a Section 12J            that section 12J is promoting investment
must not be a controlled group company investment. Many of the top asset                   into SMEs in SA so that the regime is
in relation to a group of companies. The      managers have capital protection as a key extended.
company’s tax affairs must be in order (a focus. Some of the potential risks are:
tax clearance certificate must be                                                          After 5 years, an Investor does not
requested from SARS to support this           Investment risk                              necessarily have to exit. It depends on the
requirement). The company must be an          • Consider the underlying investment         exit mechanism of the asset manager and
unlisted company (section 41 of the Act)         and associated risk.                      their commitment to liquidity after a
or a junior mining company. A junior          • Consider the track record of the asset
                                                                                           term.
mining company may be listed on the              managers – most VCC’s have an
Alternative Exchange Division (AltX) of          investment committee.
the JSE.                                      •  VCC’s are often young companies with
                                                 no proven track record. Risk is
                                                 mitigated by the income tax relief since
During any year of assessment, the sum           the capital invested is only a % of the
of the “investment income” derived by            face value of the investment.
the company must not exceed 20% of its
gross income for that year of assessment. Liquidity risk
                                              • Consider how liquidity will be created
The company must not carry on any of             at the end of term.
the following impermissible trades: Any       •  Top asset managers will have a proper
industry except:                                 exit strategy/mechanism.
• Any trade carried on in respect of
   immoveable property, except trade as       Compliance risk
   a hotel keeper (includes bed and           • The investment manager must
   breakfast establishments);                    maintain the section 12J status for
• Financial services activities such as          investors to ensure that they retain
   banking, insurance, money-lending and         their tax deduction. Consider the due
   hire-purchase financing;                      diligence process.
• Provision of financial or advisory          • Consider the compliance measures
   services, including legal, tax advisory,      which are in place. Example: Board of
   stock broking, management                     Directors – are they independent or 3rd
Focus on Philanthropy
World’s Richest Man, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Gives More to Charity

It was back in October last year when Jeff    Amazon engages in the retail sale of
Bezos’ wealth surpassed the $100 billion      consumer products and subscriptions in
mark. At the time of writing this article, it North America and internationally. It
was sitting at a cool $112 billion -          operates through the North America,
according to Forbes annual rich list (06      International, and Amazon Web Services
March 2018). This makes the founder           (AWS) segments. The company sells
and CEO of Amazon the world’s richest         merchandise and content purchased for
man, a position he has held many-a-time       resale from vendors, as well as those
before.                                       offered by third-party sellers through
                                              retail Websites. It also manufactures and
Much like the other members of the            sells electronic devices, including kindle e-
global rich-list, Bezos is no stranger to the readers, fire tablets, fire TVs, and echo. In
world of philanthropy. Earlier in January,    addition, it also provide Kindle Direct
he and his wife, MacKenzie Bezos donated Publishing, an online service that lets
$33 million to a scholarship fund             independent authors and publishers
                                                                                              Zukelwa Solomon
(TheDream.US) for young                       choose a royalty option and make their
                                                                                              Collateral Writer, GI&S
“Dreamers." The grant is the largest in the books available in the Kindle Store, along
organisation’s history and will give 1,000    with its own publishing arm, Amazon
undocumented immigrant graduates of           Publishing. It also offers programs that
US high schools with Deferred Action for      allow authors, musicians, filmmakers,
Childhood Arrivals (DACA) status the          application developers and others to
opportunity to go to college.                 publish and sell content.

DACA provides a level of amnesty to             Amazon’s success as a business has been
certain undocumented immigrants, many           nothing short of amazing. At the end of
of whom came to the US as children -            January, the company was rated as the
with a six-month delay for recipients. The      world's most valuable brand, knocking          At the end of January, the
program was formed through executive            Google from the top spot down to third         company was rated as
order by former US President Barack             while Apple maintained a tentative hold        the world's most valuable
Obama in 2012 and allowed certain               on second place. This is according to the      brand, knocking Google
people who came to the US illegally as          Brand Finance Global 500 report. It placed     from the top spot down
minors to be protected from immediate           a value on the Amazon brand at $150.8          to third while Apple
deportation. Recipients were able to            billion, a 42% jump from last year's           maintained a tentative
request “consideration of deferred action”      report. Apple received a brand valuation       hold on second place.
for a period of two years, which was            of $146.3 billion, up 37%, with the
subject to renewal. The Donald Trump            Google brand owned by Alphabet at
administration however is phasing out the       $120.9 billion, up 10% for a year earlier.
DACA program but Congress has been at
odds over what should happen to            It has not always been a rosy picture for
“Dreamers” set to lose their deportation   Amazon, however. Amazon was founded
protection status.                         in 1994, first traded publicly in 1997, and
                                           didn’t turn a profit until 2001. Further,
The issue of immigration is a subject very over the past five years, Amazon’s
close to Bezos. His adoptive father,       average profit margins have languished at
Miguel Bezos fled to the US from Cuba      about 1%.
alone when he was 16 years old as part of As Bloomberg puts it however, Bezos has
Operation Pedro Pan. As a result, Bezos    been sacrificing profit for growth and has
says his $33 million donation is in his    successfully persuaded Wall Street that
honor. Jeff Bezos himself was born in      Amazon is best served pouring money
Albuquerque, in the US state of New        into the logistical nuts and bolts that have

                                                                 16
Focus on Philanthropy
 World’s Richest Man, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Gives More to Charity

turned his company into the Wal-Mart of       answers and that they also do not accept
the web. More recently, however,              it as inevitable but rather they share the
investors have found solace in the            belief that putting their collective
company’s profitable cloud services           resources behind the country’s best talent
business, which has helped offset losses      can, in time, check the rise in health costs
in e-commerce.                                while concurrently enhancing patient           In an effort to slow the
                                              satisfaction and outcomes.                     pace of runaway
Another area where Jeff Bezos has been                                                       healthcare costs,
looking for success is healthcare, and he’s   The Amazon-Berkshire-JPMorgan tie-up           Amazon, Berkshire
giving it a shot. In an effort to slow the    will focus on technology solutions to          Hathaway and JPMorgan
pace of runaway healthcare costs,             provide high-quality and transparent           Chase plan to join forces
Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and                health care. Bezos is however not in denial    to change how health
JPMorgan Chase plan to join forces to         that the healthcare system is complex          care is provided to their
change how health care is provided to         and much like the DACA donation
                                                                                             combined 1 million US
their combined 1 million US employees.        mentioned earlier, the new company will
                                                                                             employees.
The plan is the first big move by Amazon      be free from profit-making incentives and
in the healthcare sector after months of      constraints. That’s as it tries to find ways
speculation that the internet behemoth        to cut costs and boost satisfaction with
might make an entry.                          the healthcare plan for employees of
                                              Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and
US healthcare costs continue to rise year     JPMorgan Chase.
over year despite efforts to curb them,
and with many experts believing that the
fault lies with too-high prices, Berkshire
Hathaway Chairman and CEO, Warren
Buffett, says increasing healthcare costs
are “a hungry tapeworm on the American
economy.” He adds that their companies
do “not come to this problem with
Wealth Trends
The 2018 Knight Frank Wealth Report

The latest edition of the annual Knight       people with US$50 million or more in net
Frank Wealth Report is out and the mood       assets that took the total population to
for South Africa appears to be on the         35,180. A 15% rise in Asia’s ultra-wealthy
mend.                                         cadre took its population to 35,880.

South Africa:                                 Europe:
 The country is forecast to see a 20%         Europe’s 10% growth in its ultra-wealthy
uplift in its ultra-wealthy population        population last year may seem
(people with US$50 million or more in net     counterintuitive given the political
assets) over the next five years following    challenges facing the region. Yet many
a 14% rise in 2017. In the wake of the        European countries saw a marked
election of Cyril Ramaphosa as head of        upswing in economic performance last
the governing party, the African National     year, with the euro zone outperforming
Congress (ANC), investor and consumer         the United Kingdom (UK) and United
confidence in South Africa is expected to     States (US) economies in terms of gross
                                                                                            Zukelwa Solomon
improve as a change in political leadership   domestic product (GDP) growth. The
                                                                                            Collateral Writer, GI&S
can also affect ultra-wealthy populations.    European Central Bank (ECB) also held off
Nevertheless, the report finds that           tightening monetary policy, unlike central
wealthy South Africans are still likely to    banks in the UK, Canada and the US.
continue moving money abroad and              However, as James Roberts, Knight
acquiring dual citizenship, although they     Frank’s Chief Economist, explains, the
are now also more likely to stay resident     ECB is set to taper its quantitative easing
in the country since they are supportive      programme this year.
of the new ANC leader.
                                            South America:
This is a view that also finds support in   Latin America and the Caribbean also saw
the fact that Cape Town has taken the       a bounce back in ultra-wealthy                   This is a view that also
second place in the Prime International     populations in 2017, with a 20% rise after       finds support in the fact
Residential Index (PIRI) 100, recording     the 22% decline seen since 2012. The             that Cape Town has
almost 20% growth year on year.             total number of ultra-wealthy individuals        taken the second place in
According to the report, the Atlantic       in the region (4,220) is still lower than in     the Prime International
Seaboard is attracting buyers from          2012 (5,380), but the figure is expected         Residential Index (PIRI)
overseas as well as from elsewhere in       to grow by 30% over the next five years.         100, recording almost
South Africa, however both new and          Brazil, the biggest wealth hub in the            20% growth year on year.
existing stock are in short supply.         region, also saw strong growth last year.
                                            Ian Bremmer, Head of Eurasia Group, a
The global context:                         leading political risk consultancy, told The
 When shifting the focus to the rest of the Wealth Report: “It’s largely an economic
globe, the report has found that although recovery story. The stock and bond
the super-rich populations are on the rise markets have performed extraordinarily
Europe is slipping down the ranks of the    well this past year. While the ultra-
world’s wealthiest regions. North America wealthy took a hit in 2016, there was a
remains the world’s largest wealth region clear rebound in 2017. Note that this was
with some 34% of the world’s ultra-         happening at the same time as the
wealthy based there. In fact, their ranks   Brazilian real was going through an
rose by a further 5% last year, taking the important devaluation. So in dollars, there
total to 44,000. Europe, however, failed to was a real improvement.”
fend off a strong Asian challenge,
narrowly losing its second place spot       USA:
despite a 10% rise in the number of          In the US, new tax policies aimed at

                                                                18
Wealth Trends
The 2018 Knight Frank Wealth Report

trying to encourage more corporates to         impact on ultra-wealthy populations,         ignored. It warns that there may well be a
move money onshore may have                    although it can take some time for the       point where growth in the ultra-wealthy
ramifications for the whole economy and,       changes to be felt,” explains Winston        populations does not automatically
in turn, for ultra-wealthy populations. In     Chesterfield, Director of Custom Research    continue on its currently upward
late 2017, President Donald Trump              at Wealth-X.                                 trajectory.
announced a raft of tax changes,
including an ultra-low 15.5% tax rate for      Beyond 2018:                                 This year, the report expects growth to
companies bringing their money onshore.         Looking ahead, the Knight Frank Wealth      strengthen further as the International
He also cut corporation tax to 21%, as         Report expects ultra-wealthy populations     Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting that
well as cutting some income tax rates          to continue to grow in the medium term       the global economy will expand by 3.7%,
and boosting family allowances. Under          as there are likely to be an increasing      which if correct would be the highest rate
current economic forecasts, the US is          number of economic and geopolitical          of growth since 2011. In this context,
expected to see a 38% rise in its ultra-       headwinds, not least monetary tightening     ultra-wealthy individuals are encouraged
wealthy population over the next five          across the board. Even when conditions       to think of moving away from safe haven
years. However, the change to                  are negative, wealthy populations tend to    investments and towards risk-facing
corporation tax could have an impact in        show signs of resilience, however, there     assets, which typically perform strongly in
the future, especially if it encourages        are societal changes taking place over the   cyclical upswings.
more investment across the US. “In terms       longer-term and the report cautions that
of fiscal policy, changes in corporation tax   the reaction to wealth inequality is a
and capital gains tax have the largest         pressure that should not be necessarily
News Roundup
What Happened at Home and Abroad?

SA Avoids Moody’s Credit                     World Bank Loans Ethiopia                      Naspers Raises $9.8Bn in
Ratings Downgrade                            $600Ml for Infrastructure                      Tencent Share Disposal

In line with expectations, ratings agency,   Ethiopia is in line for a $600 million loan    Naspers has reduced its investment
Moody’s left South Africa’s (SA’s) credit    from the World Bank to fund roads and          holdings in China’s Tencent to by 2% to
rating unchanged at ‘Baa3’, the lowest       other infrastructure projects in urban         31.2% to strengthen its finances and
rung of investment grade and upwardly        areas. This is to help expand sustainable      invest over time in its classifieds, online
revised the outlook on the economy to        urban infrastructure and services, as well     food delivery and fin-tech businesses
Stable from Negative previously.             as promote local economic development.         globally. It sold 190 million shares in
                                                                                            Tencent via an accelerated book-building
                                                                                            process and raised $9.8 billion.
DRC Q4 Mining Revenue                        S&P Doubles SA GDP Growth
More Than Doubled                            Forecast to 2%
                                                                                            Facebook Stock Tanks on
                                             Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Global Ratings
                                                                                            Data Scandal
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) says
its 2017 mining sector revenue rose          has raised SA’s gross domestic product
35.6% to $822.2 million while revenue        (GDP) growth forecast for 2018 from 1%         Facebook has announced a series of
from the oil and gas sector jumped by        to 2%, but warned it is still not enough to    changes to give its users more control
103% to $203.9 million, helped by higher     decrease SA's high unemployment                over their data. This follows a massive
prices for key exports such as copper and    rate. The ratings agency says the              scandal where data from 50 million users
cobalt.                                      improved outlook is due partly to              was improperly harvested to target US
                                             strengthening domestic and foreign             and British voters in close-run elections.
                                             investor sentiment.                            The news wiped more than $100 billion
Zim Indigenisation Limited to                                                               from Facebook’s stock market value.
Diamond, Platinum             Son of Angolan Ex-President
                              Charged with Fraud                                            M&R Board Rejects Buyout
Staying with mining, over in Zimbabwe
                                                                                            Bid from Germany’s ATON
the government has changed its
empowerment law (Indigenisation and          José Filomeno dos Santo, the son of
Economic Empowerment Act) to limit           Angola's former President, José Eduardo        The independent board of engineering
majority ownership by state entities to      dos Santos has been formerly charged of        and construction company, Murray &
only diamond and platinum mines and          fraud following the alleged illegal transfer   Roberts (M&R) has rejected a buyout bid
not the entire mining sector as previously   of $500 million from the country’s central     from Germany’s ATON GmbH. ATON
proposed.                                    bank into a corporate account at HSBC in       which already owns a third of M&R had
                                             the United Kingdom (UK).                       made a cash offer price of 15 rand per
                                                                                            share - a 56% premium to M&R’s closing
Absa Feb PMI Back In Positive                                                               price on 22/03/2018.
Territory

SA’s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) which is compiled
by the Bureau for Economic
Research (BER) improved to above the
break-even mark of 50 index points to
50.8 in February from 49.9 points a
month earlier.

                                                               20
What did The Economist Say?

The Economist offers authoritative insight and opinion on international
news, politics, business, finance, science, technology and the connections
between them. Below are some extracts of the stories that caught our
attention.

What Zuckerberg Should Do:                  Facebook’s business relies on three
                                            elements: keeping users glued to their
Facebook Faces A                            screens, collecting data about their
Reputational Meltdown                       behaviour and convincing advertisers to
This is how it, and the wider industry,     pay billions of dollars to reach them with
should respond                              targeted ads. The firm has an incentive to
                                            promote material that grabs attention
LAST year the idea took hold that Mark      and to sell ads to anyone. Its culture
Zuckerberg might run for president in       melds a ruthless pursuit of profit with a
2020 and seek to lead the world’s most      Panglossian and narcissistic belief in its
powerful country. Today, Facebook’s         own virtue. Mr Zuckerberg controls the
founder is fighting to show that he is      firm’s voting rights. Clearly, he gets too
capable of leading the world’s eighth-      little criticism.
biggest listed company or that any of its
2.1bn users should trust it.                 In the latest fiasco, it emerged that in
                                            2013 an academic in Britain built a
News that Cambridge Analytica (CA), a       questionnaire app for Facebook users,
firm linked to President Donald Trump’s     which 270,000 people answered. They in
2016 campaign, got data on 50m              turn had 50m Facebook friends. Data on
Facebook users in dubious, possibly         all these people then ended up with CA.
illegal, ways has lit a firestorm. Mr       (Full disclosure: The Economist once used
Zuckerberg took five days to reply and,     CA for a market-research project.)
                                                                                          Today, Facebook’s
when he did, he conceded that Facebook      Facebook says that it could not happen
                                                                                          founder is fighting to
had let its users down in the past but      again and that the academic and CA
                                            broke its rules; both deny doing anything     show that he is capable
seemed not to have grasped that its
                                            wrong. Regulators in Europe and America       of leading the world’s
business faces a wider crisis of
confidence. After months of talk about      are investigating. Facebook knew of the       eighth-biggest listed
propaganda and fake news, politicians in    problem in 2015, but it did not alert         company or that any of
Europe and, increasingly, America see       individual users. Although nobody knows       its 2.1bn users should
Facebook as out of control and in denial.   how much CA benefited Mr Trump’s              trust it.
Congress wants him to testify. Expect a     campaign, the fuss has been amplified by
roasting.                                   the left’s disbelief that he could have won
                                            the election fairly.
Since the news, spooked investors have
wiped 9% off Facebook’s shares.             [The rest of this article appears in the 24
Consumers are belatedly waking up to        February 2018 print edition of The
the dangers of handing over data to tech    Economist]
giants that are run like black boxes.
Already, according to the Pew Research      Overpriced: Why Africa’s Poor
Centre, a think-tank, a majority of
Americans say they distrust social-media
                                            Pay High Prices
                                            Africa’s economic paradox
firms. Mr Zuckerberg and his industry
need to change, fast.
                                            “WE FEEL so hungry,” says Agatha
                                            Khasiala, a Kenyan housekeeper,
The addiction game
What did The Economist Say?

grumbling about the price of meat and          mobile phones, GDP almost doubled.
fish. She has recently moved in with her       They may also be less pricey than
daughter because “the cost of everything       economists reckon, because poor people
is very high”. The data back her up. The       buy second-hand clothes or grow their
World Bank publishes rough estimates of        own food.
price levels in different countries, showing
how far a dollar would stretch if              A more intriguing explanation comes from
converted into local currency. On this         food prices. The relative cost of food,
measure, Kenya is more expensive than          compared with other goods, is higher in
Poland.                                        poor countries. In Africa, the absolute cost
                                               is sometimes high, too. Nigerians would
This is surprising. The cost of living is      save 30% of their income if they bought
generally higher in richer places, a           their food at Indian prices, finds a recent
phenomenon best explained by the               study by the OECD, a think-tank. Meat
economists Bela Balassa and Paul               costs more in Ghana than in America.
Samuelson. They distinguished between
goods that can be traded internationally       (The rest of this article appears in the 15
and many services, like hairdressing, that     March 2018 print edition of The
cannot. In rich countries, manufacturing       Economist)
is highly productive, allowing firms to pay
high wages and still charge internationally    The Threat To World Trade:
competitive prices. Those high wages also
drive up pay in services, which must           The Rules-Based System Is In
compete for workers. Since productivity is     Grave Danger
low in services, high pay translates into      Donald Trump’s tariffs on steel and
high prices, pushing up the overall cost of    aluminium would be just the start
living.
                                                                                              Among developing
                                              DONALD TRUMP is hardly the first                economies, however,
Among developing economies, however,          American president to slap unilateral
the relationship between prices and
                                                                                              the relationship between
                                              tariffs on imports. Every inhabitant of the
prosperity is less clear-cut. Prices in Chad, Oval Office since Jimmy Carter has              prices and prosperity is
for instance, are comparable to those in                                                      less clear-cut.
                                              imposed some kind of protectionist curbs
Malaysia, where incomes are 14 times          on trade, often on steel. Nor will Mr
higher. Fadi Hassan of Trinity College        Trump’s vow to put 25% tariffs on steel
Dublin finds that in the poorest fifth of     and 10% on aluminium by themselves
countries, most of them in Africa, the        wreck the economy: they account for 2%
relationship goes into reverse: penniless     of last year’s $2.4trn of goods imports, or
places cost more than slightly richer ones. 0.2% of GDP. If this were the extent of Mr
A paper in 2015 from the Centre for           Trump’s protectionism, it would simply be
Global Development (CGD), an American an act of senseless self-harm. In fact, it is
think-tank, accounts for various factors      a potential disaster—both for America
which could explain differences in prices, and for the world economy.
including state subsidies, geography and
the effects of foreign aid. Even then,        As yet it is unclear exactly what Mr
African countries are puzzlingly expensive. Trump will do. But the omens are bad.
One explanation is dodgy statistics.          Unlike his predecessors, Mr Trump is a
African countries may be richer than they long-standing sceptic of free trade. He
seem. When Nigeria revised its figures in     has sneered at the multilateral trading
2014 to start counting industries such as system, which he sees as a bad deal for

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