THE PROPERTY MARKET - DEVON AND CORNWALL - Webbers

Page created by Allan Woods
 
CONTINUE READING
THE PROPERTY MARKET - DEVON AND CORNWALL - Webbers
THE
PROPERTY
MARKET
A REVIEW OF THE KEY TRENDS IN THE
NATIONAL AND LOCAL HOUSING MARKET.

                 DEVON AND CORNWALL
                  Analysis by Datalof t | Summer 2020
THE PROPERTY MARKET - DEVON AND CORNWALL - Webbers
A STRONG PRE-COVID MARKET
SALES

↑2.1%                            ↓9.8%                            ↓9.5% ↑0.6%                                         ↑2.9%
House                            Property                         Mortgage                New private homes           Gross mortgage
prices                           sales                            approvals               built (completed)           lending
£231,855 March 2020 vs           86,200 March 2020 vs             56,161 March 2020 vs    39,550 Q4 2019 vs           £22.6bn March 2020 vs
£227,104 March 2019              95,540 March 2019                62,086 March 2019       39,320 Q4 2018              £22bn March 2019

Source: dataloft, Bank of England, HMRC, ONS, MHCLG, RICS

COVID-19 caused the residential market to pause following a
spring bounce. As we exit lockdown we hope to see the strong
pre-COVID market return.

Spring                                                  Economy                                   Post-COVID-19
Improved consumer sentiment                             Following lockdown, the Chancellor        The first day of the housing market
following the election result and                       announced unprecedented support           reopening in England saw 5.2 million
Brexit clarity was reflected in the                     for business and individuals and the      visits to Rightmove, up 4% on the
spring housing market, with annual                      Bank of England lowered interest          same day last year. This release of
house price growth of 2.1% and an                       rates to 0.1%. Despite these              pent-up demand will help get the
annual increase of 3.7% in mortgage                     measures, the economy has been            market back on track. Agents believe
approvals in Q1 2020 (despite the fall                  affected, already contracting by          transactions will take six to nine
in March). The UK went into lockdown                    2% in the three months to March           months to reach pre-COVID levels
on 23rd March, which resulted in a                      (ONS). The Bank of England expects        and prices will take around 11 months.
-9.8% drop in transactions in March,                    the economy to contract by 14% in         Long-term price growth expectations
while April volumes are estimated                       2020, only returning to pre-COVID         are similar to pre-COVID levels, with
to be half the level of last year. On                   levels by mid-2021. The nation has        average growth of just over 2% per
11th May, the government announced                      begun its journey back to normality       annum over the next five years
the UK COVID-19 exit strategy and                       but it will take time for the economy     (RICS).
England’s residential market                            to recover.
reopened on 13th May.

2 | DEVON AND CORNWALL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE                                                                            Summer 2020
THE PROPERTY MARKET - DEVON AND CORNWALL - Webbers
What requirements in a
                                                 property are now more
LETTINGS                                         important than they were
                                                 pre-lockdown?

                                                 30%
                                                                                      30%                  A garden

                                                 25%

↑1.5%                     ↑2.5%
Average
rents
                          % increase
                          in rent                20%                                  21%                Homeworking
                                                                                                         space
April 2020 vs             per annum over
April 2019                the next 5 years

                                                 15%
                                                                                      16%                Broadband
                                                                                                         speed

                                                                                      15%                Less urban
                                                                                                         area

The rental market
                                                 10%
During lockdown, agents reported
weakened demand and fewer landlord
instructions, which is no surprise considering
restrictions on moving. Rents increased by
1.5% in April, but it can take time for supply    5%
and demand pressures to show. Agents
expect some rental falls in the coming
months, but the long-term projections stand
at 2.5% per annum over the next five years.
With 39.5% of existing tenancies set to expire    0%

in Q3, it will be a busy quarter for agents.

                                                 Source: Dataloft Homemover Survey, showing response of those who had
                                                 been actively looking for a new home before lockdown and still intend to
                                                 move. Respondents could choose more than one option.

       5.2m                                      The Homemover Survey suggests that COVID-19
                                                 is likely to have left a legacy of consumer
       visits to                                 behaviour change, shifting the relative
       Rightmove                                 importance of house buyer requirements.
       13th May, 4% up on the
       same day a year ago.

Analysis by Dataloft                                                                                                        3
e

    THE LEGACY
    OF COVID-19
    Over the last few months, we have seen unprecedented changes
    to our lives, some good and some bad, but which are here to stay?

                                                                                        Lockdown insights

                                                                                        70%
                                                                                        increase in
                                                                                        people on bikes
                                                                                        since lockdown.
                                                                                        Source: dataloft, Gov.uk

                                                                                        51%
                                                                                        valued time saved
    Transport
    COVID-19 has caused people to
                                                  premium already established for
                                                  homes within close proximity of
                                                                                        on commute most
    consider alternative ways of getting to       green space could increase.           while working from home.
    work, avoiding public transport. The                                                Source: dataloft, Vodafone
    government is encouraging schemes
                                                  Working from home
    such as pop-up cycle lanes, wider             Lockdown has proven to many

                                                                                        £2,500
    pavements and school streets. Many            sceptics that working from home is
    local authorities have already begun          viable and even convenient. Before
    to make changes, and the government           COVID-19 only 5% of people mainly
    has invested £250 million to secure a
    lasting legacy of greener, safer transport.
                                                  worked from home and less than
                                                  30% had ever worked from home.
                                                                                        price premium
    Outside space
                                                  We don’t expect the end of offices:   close to green space
                                                  many miss them and they have
                                                                                        within 100 metres, compared with
    Following lockdown, the importance            great social benefits. However,
    of access to outside space is likely to       working from home could become        500 metres away.
    increase. Currently only 66% of flats         more common and with it, the          Source: dataloft, ONS

    have access to private outside space,         relative importance of commute
    compared to 97% of houses. We may             times, broadband speeds and
    see a shift in building design and the        space for a home office.

    4 | DEVON AND CORNWALL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE                                                                     Summer 2020
NATIONAL
MARKET CONDITIONS
The spring housing market showed
signs of improved consumer
sentiment. March house price growth
indicated a strong pre-COVID
market, with a 2.1% annual increase in
the UK. The strongest growth was
seen in London and the South West.

It is too early to tell the impact                                SCOTLAND

                                                                 1.5%
COVID-19 will have on house prices,
                                                                                                CURRENT ANNUAL RATE
but they are likely to be protected
                                                                                                OF PRICE CHANGE
from major falls as, unlike previous                                                               Below 0%
downturns, house prices have been                                                                  0% – 2.0%
                                                                                                   2.0% – 4.0%
relatively stable. There is a good
                                                                                                   Over 4.0%
balance between supply and
                                                                                                Source: dataloft, ONS,
demand and banks are still lending                                                              UKHPI March 2020
with fixed mortgage rates at an
all-time low based on interest
rates of 0.1%.
                                                                                   NORTH EAST

                                                  NORTHERN
                                                  IRELAND
                                                                                   1.8%
                                              3.8%
                                                                      NORTH WEST

                                                                      3.4%             YORKSHIRE AND
                                                                                       THE HUMBER

                                                                                       -1.0%
Annual change in house prices
                                                                                          EAST MIDLANDS
and transactions
 4%
                                                                              WEST
                                                                                          2.1%
 2%                                                                           MIDLANDS

                                                                              0.4%
                                                                                                           EAST OF ENGLAND

                                                                                                           1.6%
 0%
                                                                     WALES

                                                                 1.1%
-2%

-4%

-6%                                                                                        SOUTH
                                                                                           EAST

                                                                                          2.0%
-8%
                                                                     SOUTH WEST

                                                                    4.1%
-10%
       APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
        19  19  19  19  19  19  19  19  19  20  20  20

       House prices         Transactions

                                                                                                         LONDON

                                                                                                        4.7%
Source: dataloft, UKHPI, HMRC

Analysis by Dataloft                                     DEVON AND CORNWALL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 5
REGIONAL ACTIVITY
       IN DEVON AND CORNWALL
       The South West experienced            House price growth in Devon and
       strong annual house price growth      Cornwall varied. Torbay saw very
       in March as a result of improved      strong house price growth of 12.6%
       consumer sentiment following the      and only two areas saw an annual
       election result and Brexit clarity.   decrease in prices, Torridge and
       Annual house prices increased by      West Devon.
       4.1%, significantly higher than the
       UK average of 2.1%.

       CURRENT ANNUAL RATE                                                           North
       OF PRICE CHANGE                                                               Devon
          Less than 0%
          0% to 2.5%
          2.5% to 5%
          5% to 10%                                                      Torridge
          Over 10%                                                                                Mid Devon

       Source: dataloft, ONS,
                                                                                      Dev
                                                                                       ev
                                                                                       evo
                                                                                        v n
       UKHPI March 2020.                                                                                      East Devon
       Contains OS data                                                           West
       @Crown copyright and                                                       Devon
       database right 2016.
                                                                                             Teignbridge
                                                                                                               Exeter

                                                                                                           Torbay
                                                  Cornwall                                South
                                                                                          Hams

                                                                  Plymouth

Isles of Scilly

       March house price growth indicated a strong
       pre-COVID market in the UK.

       6 | DEVON AND CORNWALL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE                                                                 Summer 2020
5.3%
        East Devon
                                                                                                    Open for business
        private housing                                                                             The residential market reopened on
        annual turnover                                                                             the 13th May in England, with estate
                                                                                                    agents given the green light for
        Source: dataloft, ONS, UKHPI
                                                                                                    viewings, conveyancing and moves.
                                                                                                    The number of visits to Rightmove
                                                                                                    on day one demonstrated the extent
                                                                                                    of pent-up demand. Sales enquiries
                                                                                                    doubled between Tuesday 12th May

Most active housing markets across the region                                                       and Wednesday 13th May and are only
                                                                                                    10% down on a year ago.
RANK                                                        % OF PRIVATE               AVERAGE
                                                          STOCK TURNOVER              HOUSE PRICE
                                                                                                    Rightmove had
   1        EAST DEVON
                                                              5.3%                   £303,888       5.2 million visits on
   2        NORTH DEVON
                                                              4.8%                   £263,864       13th May, up 4%
   3        CITY OF PLYMOUTH
                                                              4.7%                   £178,868       on last year.
   4        EXETER
                                                              4.6%                   £261,164
   5        TORBAY
                                                              4.6%                   £214,188
   6        TEIGNBRIDGE
                                                              4.5%                   £250,347       The next 12 months
   7        MID DEVON
                                                              4.5%                   £240,967       It will take time for consumer
                                                                                                    sentiment to improve and for some
   8        CORNWALL
                                                              4.5%                   £238,854       people to feel secure in their jobs and
   9        TORRIDGE
                                                              4.4%                   £229,538       ready to re-enter the housing market,
                                                                                                    but we are already seeing positive
  10        SOUTH HAMS
                                                              4.4%                    £315,217      signs. For some, several months
  11        WEST DEVON
                                                              4.1%                   £242,212       confined to their homes will have
                                                                                                    encouraged them to act on long-held
                                                                                                    dreams of moving. We hope to see
                                                                                                    the housing market strengthen over
                                                                                                    the rest of 2020.

                                                                                                    Agents surveyed
                                                                                                    by the RICS in April
                                                                                                    expected it would
                                                                                                    take 6 to 9 months to
                                                                                                    return to pre-COVID
                                                                                                    transaction levels.

Source: dataloft, ONS, UKHPI
NB Stock levels relate to 2011 Census data. Some areas have seen increased amounts
of new development activity since then, which will enhance turnover rates.

Analysis by Dataloft                                                        DEVON AND CORNWALL HOUSING MARKET UPDATE | 7
'

ABOUT THE
                                                                                      '

GUILD OF
                                     '

PROPERTY                                                                                  '

PROFESSIONALS

The Guild is a UK-wide network
of independent estate and letting
agents. Each of our Members
has been carefully chosen by us,
all agents adhering to our
Code of Conduct.

If you want independent guidance
on moving home or are looking
for the best agent in your area,
visit guildproperty.co.uk

The Guild of Property Professionals
121 Park Lane, Mayfair, London W1K 7AG
020 7629 4141 | parklane@guildproperty.co.uk | guildproperty.co.uk

Analysis by Dataloft

Dataloft is an established property market intelligence       Disclaimer: This report is produced for general information
company with a long track record of analysing and             only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy
                                                              of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss
reporting on the housing market. We are committed to          or damage of any nature arising from its use. At all times the
stripping away the mystique of complex data analysis          content remains the property of Dataloft Ltd under copyright,
and adding value for clients through interpretation,          and reproduction of all or part of it in any form is prohibited
                                                              without written permission from Dataloft Ltd.
insight and creativity.
                                                              Date of publication: June 2020
dataloft.co.uk | informpropertyanalysis.com                   Analysis, editorial, design, graphics and charts by Dataloft.
You can also read