TOP 10 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS IN 2020 BY ALIBABA DAMO ACADEMY - alibabacloud.com
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TOP 10
TECHNOLOGY
TRENDS IN
2020 BY ALIBABA
DAMO ACADEMY alibabacloud.com
© Alibaba Cloud 2020
All rights reserved
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy ii
PREFACE
Technology changes the world. Right now, we are going through
unprecedented changes. The rapid advancement of sciences
and technologies has become the most distinctive achievement
of our age. This, in turn, drives industry transformations and
social progress. In particular, cloud computing, big data, artificial
intelligence (AI), blockchain, and 5G amplify these changes.
They are rapidly heralding the age of digital economy.
2019 saw a series of breakthroughs in technology and industry
around the world. The image of a black hole marked a first in human
history and a major breakthrough in astronomy. Google claimed to
have achieved quantum supremacy, setting off another round of
explosive development in quantum computing. Multiple countries
have embraced 5G, and the Internet of Things (IoT) has opened a
new chapter in technological development. We reached the inflection
point in enterprise cloud migration, with cloud-based IT infrastructure
surpassing traditional data centers in scale. On that front, Alibaba
took the lead by migrating all of its core systems to the cloud.
And Facebook launched Libra, a cryptocurrency, shaking up the
international currency system.
Here we are, at the start of a new decade, looking ahead. What new
technology trends can we expect and how they will affect our lives?
The Alibaba DAMO Academy invited the world’s top experts and
scholars to exchange views with our scientists. We hope to inspire
the industry by analyzing trends and making a few predictions in
the fields of technology such as AI, Internet of Intelligence, cloud
computing, blockchain, new computing, and new materials.
Technology makes the world a friendlier place. The DAMO Academy
hopes to work with enterprises around the world to break down
technological barriers and concentrate on the integration of
technology and industry to bring the benefits of technology to all.
JE F F ZH A NG
President of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence and DAMO Academy
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy iii
OPENING REMARKS
Throughout history, every major economic development is closely
related to new breakthroughs in technology. Various signs indicate
that we are entering a new period of rapid technological growth and
will soon witness another climax in global technology competition.
If China wants to emerge victorious in this round of technological
innovation, it needs to better predict technological trends, identify
development paths, and quickly lay down the groundwork in
emerging sectors.
AI, BIG DATA, CLOUD
COMPUTING, IOT, AND Scientific and technological innovation is accelerating, and data has
BLOCKCHAIN ALL HAVE become a new factor of production. AI, big data, cloud computing,
THE POTENTIAL TO
REVOLUTIONIZE OUR IoT, and blockchain all have the potential to revolutionize our society.
SOCIETY. Artificial intelligence has experienced a third wave of development,
and the industrial Internet will drive major changes in all industries.
We must continue to explore cutting-edge fields, such as new
materials and new computing, to support the rapid and sustainable
development of digital and intelligent technologies in the future.
X U E QIK U N
Member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
Vice President for Research at Tsinghua University
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy iv
OPENING REMARKS
DAMO Academy invited several authoritative experts to share
their predictions concerning technology trends and, particularly,
to interpret the trends in technological fields closely related to the
digital economy. These trends have inspired the imagination of the
scientific and technological community, raised public awareness of
the latest developments in science and technology, and directed the
flow of social resources.
DAMO Academy's technological forecasts have revealed one
DATA HAS BECOME development trend common to various cutting-edge fields: Data has
A NEW FACTOR OF
become a new factor of production. This will drive the increasing
PRODUCTION.
application of AI, big data, cloud computing, IoT, and blockchain in
our work and daily lives. At the same time, we can see the constant
stream of breakthroughs in basic fields, such as new materials,
new computing, and new designs. Advances in these fields provide
a more powerful and solid foundation for these applications. In
addition, we see a new picture emerging of cross-border integration,
including the hyper-integration of industrial Internet OT (control
systems), IT (information systems), and CT (communication
systems) as privacy-focused AI technology removes the boundaries
separating traditional technological sectors.
Through the joint efforts of the government, the market, and society,
we hope to gain more such insights in order to promote greater
enthusiasm for scientific and technological innovation, change
wishes into goals, and transform goals into reality.
XUE L AN
Dean, Schwarzman College, Tsinghua University
Deputy Director, China Institute for Science and Technology Policy,
Tsinghua University
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy v
CONTENTS
Preface ii
Opening Remarks iii
1. AI Will Evolve from Perceptual Intelligence to Cognitive
Intelligence 1
2. In-Memory Computing Will Facilitate AI’s Progress 4
3. A Hyper-Converged Industrial Internet Will Emerge 7
4. Large-Scale Machine Collaboration Will Be Possible 10
5. Modularization Will Make Chip Design Easier 12
6. Mass Market Adoption of Production-Grade Blockchain
Technology Will Change Everyday Life 14
7. Quantum Computing Is Ready to Reach New Heights 17
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy vi
8. New Materials Will Drive the Semiconductor Revolution 20
9. Privacy-Sensitive AI Will Become Widespread 23
10. Cloud Computing Will Drive IT Innovation 25
Acknowledgements 28
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 1
1. AI WILL EVOLVE FROM
PERCEPTUAL INTELLIGENCE
TO COGNITIVE
INTELLIGENCE
OVERVIEW
AI has already achieved or surpassed human standards in the field
of perception, such as hearing, speaking, and seeing. However, AI
is still in its infancy in the field of cognition, which requires external
knowledge, logical reasoning, and domain transfer. The concept
of cognitive intelligence comes from cognitive psychology, brain
science, and sociology. By combining cross-domain knowledge
graphs, causal reasoning, continuous learning, and other
technologies, we will establish an effective mechanism to acquire
and express knowledge in a stable way. This will allow machines to
understand and use knowledge, marking a key breakthrough in the
transition from perceptual intelligence to cognitive intelligence.
ANALYSIS
Over the past few years, AI has made great strides in perceptual
intelligence and reached or exceeded human standards in many
fields. It can now be used to solve problems that involve listening,
speaking, and seeing. However, AI still finds it difficult to solve
problems that require thinking and feedback, such as those involving
external knowledge, logical reasoning, or domain transfer.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 2
Compared with the first generation of AI that excelled at perceptual
intelligence, the next generation of AI will be more data-based. It will
automatically convert unstructured data into structured knowledge
to achieve true cognitive intelligence. While we are working to
maintain the advantages of big data intelligence, understanding
how to empower machines with common sense and causal logic
inference capabilities in order to achieve cognitive intelligence will
become the main focus of AI research.
The design of cognitive intelligence mechanisms is very important.
It involves establishing effective mechanisms to obtain and express
AI WILL knowledge in a stable manner and finding ways to make knowledge
AUTOMATICALLY
understandable and useful to different models. This requires further
CONVERT
UNSTRUCTURED DATA inspiration from cognitive psychology, brain science, and sociology,
INTO STRUCTURED as well as breakthroughs in the development of cross-domain
KNOWLEDGE TO
knowledge mapping, causal reasoning, continuous learning, and
ACHIEVE TRUE
COGNITIVE other fields.
INTELLIGENCE
Cognitive intelligence will draw on the reasoning of the human brain
to solve complex reading comprehension problems and knowledge
graph inference problems with relatively few samples. It will also
support collaborative and structured reasoning and unstructured
semantic understanding. Cognitive intelligence needs to solve
multi‑modal pre-training problems to help machines achieve
multi‑modal awareness capabilities to empower them to handle
a large number of tasks.
Large-scale graph neural networks are seen as powerful inference
methods that can promote the development of cognitive intelligence.
Graph neural networks allow deep neural networks to go beyond the
processing of traditional unstructured data (such as images, audio,
and text sequences) to higher-level structured data (such as image
structures). Large-scale graph data can express the rich and deep
logic of human common sense and expert rules. Graph nodes define
understandable symbolic knowledge. The irregular graph topology
expresses the inference relationships among graph nodes, such as
dependencies, affiliations, and logical rules.
Taking an example from insurance and financial risk assessment,
a complete AI credit evaluation system needs to analyze personal
resumes, behavioral habits, health, and other factors, as well as
interaction data and mutual evaluations between parents, relatives,
friends, colleagues, and classmates. Graph-based learning systems
can use interactions between users, and between users and
products, to make accurate causal and relational inferences.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 3
Whether or not the current rapid development of AI can continue
to new heights and achieve industrialization on a larger scale is
completely dependent on breakthroughs in cognitive intelligence.
Cognitive intelligence can help machines understand data across
modes and learn general expressions that closely resemble the
cognition of the human brain. This gives machines multi-modal
perceptual capabilities similar to those of the human brain. The value
of such an achievement would completely revolutionize the industry.
The emergence of cognitive intelligence would allow AI systems to
actively understand the regularities and causal relationships that
govern the development of things, rather than simply performing
statistical fitting, and move us closer to the creation of next-
generation AI systems with cognitive capabilities.
Cognitive intelligence would completely
revolutionalize the industry."
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 4
2. IN-MEMORY COMPUTING
WILL FACILITATE AI’S
PROGRESS
OVERVIEW
The separation of storage and computing in the von Neumann
architecture is no longer suitable for data-driven AI applications.
The computing power and power consumption bottlenecks resulting
from frequent data migration constrain the development of more
advanced algorithms. The in-memory computing architecture, similar
to that of the neural network structure, integrates data storage units
with computing units to significantly reduce data transfers and
greatly improve computing parallelism and efficiency. The application
of integrated computing and storage in hardware architectures will
break through the bottlenecks constraining AI computing power.
ANALYSIS
The classic von Neumann computer architecture separates storage
units from computing units. During an operation, data needs to be
read from the storage unit to the computing unit, with the result
written back to the storage unit after the operation. In this era of big
data-driven AI, AI operations must transfer data more frequently
and store and process much larger data volumes. Once computing
power reaches a certain level, the storage access speed cannot
keep pace with the data consumption of computing components
and the potential of added computing components cannot be fully
utilized. This results in the von Neumann bottleneck or the memory
wall problem. It's like a powerful engine not able to reach its full
horsepower due to a narrow fuel line.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 5
Bottlenecks of computing power and power
consumption already restrict research into
more advanced and complex AI models."
For example, XLNet, the most advanced natural language processing
model, has about 400 million model parameters, and each training
process requires hundreds of deep learning accelerators operating
for three days. It is estimated that the number of axon connections
between cells in the human brain is in the hundreds of trillions or
quadrillions. So, there is obviously still a huge cognitive gap between
current AI systems and the general-purpose AI we are pursuing.
In the future, computing power and the efficiency of computing
systems must be increased by several orders of magnitude.
Therefore, to make further breakthroughs in the AI field, we need
to adopt a new computing architecture to solve the computing
power bottleneck caused by the separation of storage units and
computing units.
The fusion of computing and storage works in a way similar to the
human brain – it will integrate data storage units with computing
units to significantly reduce data transfers and greatly improve
computing parallelism and efficiency. However, the creation of an
integrated computing and storage architecture cannot be achieved
overnight. To develop such an architecture, the current strategy
is to reduce the distance between storage units and computing
units through chip design, integration, and encapsulation, along
with attempts to increase bandwidth and reduce the cost of data
transfers to mitigate the bottlenecks they cause. In the mid-term,
we expect to see architectural innovations that place storage in
computing units or computing units in storage modules to achieve a
preliminary integration of computing and storage. In the long-term,
we hope to see device-level innovations that eliminate the distinction
between storage units and computing units to achieve the true
fusion of storage and computing. In recent years, some new types of
non-volatile storage, such as resistive memory, have shown potential
for this kind of computing and storage integration.
The integration of computing and storage is driving algorithm
upgrades and becoming the hallmark of next-generation AI systems.
It provides large-scale and efficient computing power, allowing
developers to design algorithms with more imagination. In this way,
advanced hardware can be used to build cutting-edge systems and
ultimately accelerate the incubation of new businesses.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 6
The integration of computing and storage will be a true game-
changer and open up new areas of competition. Its emergence will
disrupt the current industrial landscape of major companies with
relative monopolies over processors and storage. This process
will facilitate the development of more small and medium-sized
enterprises in the chip industry.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 7
3. A HYPER-CONVERGED
INDUSTRIAL INTERNET
WILL EMERGE
OVERVIEW
The rapid development of 5G, IoT devices, cloud computing, and
edge computing will promote the emergence of a hyper-converged
industrial Internet. This will enable the intelligent integration of
industrial control systems, communication systems, and information
systems. Using a hyper-converged industrial Internet, manufacturing
enterprises can automate equipment, delivery and production
scheduling to achieve flexible manufacturing. At the same time,
manufacturers will break through limits imposed by individual
factories, connect upstream and downstream enterprise factories,
and enable real-time adjustment and collaboration of manufacturing
production lines.
This technology will greatly improve the
production efficiency of factories and the
profitability of enterprises."
ANALYSIS
The communication between existing industrial systems has
become a problem due to the complex environments that factories
have, including cabling. Factory delivery robots or mining excavators
need to freely move around a large environment, making it difficult
for Wi-Fi to cover. However, the data transmission rate and latency
of 4G, Lora, or NB cannot meet the response time robots need. As
5G technology matures, it will be able to meet the high-reliability
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 8
and low-latency requirements of industrial systems. Compared with
wired solutions, DTU (wireless transmission devices) delivers clear
advantages and greater cost-effectiveness in deployment and O&M.
We expect that the interconnection of industrial systems will become
increasingly common as 5G construction proceeds.
The industrial Internet has three major advantages. The first
advantage is that it can connect internal IT software systems of
manufacturing enterprises with OT equipment systems, which
allows for automated dispatch to achieve flexible manufacturing.
The second advantage is that it optimizes the integration of
upstream and downstream industrial chains outside factories.
Finally, it manages product design and product lifecycles.
With the development of IoT PaaS technology, clouds are already
compatible with various network and connection protocols,
including Wi-Fi, BLE, Zigbee, Modbus, OpcUA, and RS232. These
protocols facilitate the connection of existing IT systems and the
cloud through 5G modules. Automatic Production Scheduling (APS)
software and Manufacturing Execution Systems (MES) can directly
deliver processing packages and production plans to each machine
from the cloud or edge servers. This fuses IT (informatization) and
OT (industrial control software) and achieves vertical integration
inside the factory. You can easily link device data with the cloud
and transfer device job data to business systems (cloud-based IT
systems) for automatic dispatch, real-time production adjustment,
and customization.
Due to the confidentiality of core technologies and the inconsistent
software and hardware used in the production systems of
different enterprises, enterprises cannot form a closely-connected
value network. This makes it difficult to increase the overall
competitiveness of value networks. By using distributed ledger
and other technologies to solve the trust problem, enterprises can
break through the limitations of individual factories and connect the
manufacturing systems of upstream and downstream enterprise
factories in the value network. In this way, they can achieve real-
time adjustment and collaboration of upstream and downstream
production, allowing upstream production lines to slow. This
will avoid unnecessary production and inventory, improving the
competitiveness of the entire value network.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 9
In the current production model, each link in the product value chain,
such as product design, production planning, production engineering,
production execution, and service procurement, has different data
sources. As a result, the systems are very different and have a
hard time communicating with each other, so information in the
value chain cannot be made fully transparent. However, by applying
industrial Internet and digital twin technology, CAD software can
be used in the product design phase to create the parsing model.
In the product use phase, 5G and IoT PaaS are used to collect key
parameters. By entering this information into the model parsing
software on the cloud, enterprises can easily track the differences
between the product performance and design metrics throughout
the product lifecycle. Thus, product use information becomes an
important data source for the next iteration of the product, allowing
it to continuously improve and evolve.
When industrial systems are connected through the industrial
Internet, we will have our first tool to adjust the capabilities of
industrial systems in real time. This will allow enterprises to greatly
increase production efficiency, reduce inventories, and improve
quality. For industries with an output value in the tens or hundreds
of trillions of RMB, a five to 10 percent increase in efficiency will
produce trillions of RMB in value.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 10
4. LARGE-SCALE MACHINE
COLLABORATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE
OVERVIEW
Traditional monolithic intelligence cannot meet the real-time
understanding and decision-making requirements of large-scale
smart device systems. With the development of IoT collaboration
awareness and 5G communication technologies, machines can
collaborate and compete with each other to achieve a goal. Swarm
intelligence thanks to the collaboration of multiple smart devices
will further enhance the value of intelligent systems. For example,
swarm intelligence can empower large-scale intelligent traffic light
scheduling with dynamic and real-time adjustment capabilities,
allow warehouse robots to collaborate to efficiently complete
goods sorting, enable driverless vehicles to perceive global traffic
conditions, and make it possible for swarms of drones to efficiently
deliver packages to your door.
ANALYSIS
With the development of AI, an increasing number of smart devices
play an important role in day-to-day work and life. Based on the
"Internet of everything" concept, a large number of smart devices can
IN THE NEXT be connected to form a smart device network for information sharing
FIVE YEARS, THE and unified control.
COLLABORATION OF
MULTIPLE SMART In a large-scale smart device network, communication and
DEVICES WILL PLAY A
collaboration between machines is extremely important. This will
ROLE IN ALL ASPECTS
OF URBAN LIFE allow the group to achieve their ultimate goals more efficiently and
lead to the emergence of swarm intelligence, further increasing
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 11
the value of large-scale smart systems. City traffic light control is
a typical example. This aims to ensure the smooth flow of traffic
throughout the city over the long term. In the real world, controlling
all the traffic lights across a city is a daunting task. Different control
strategies must be adopted at different times, and the strategy
for each intersection depends on real-time traffic flow information
and the traffic control strategies of other nearby intersections.
Using current rule-based methods, it is difficult to implement a
large-scale intelligent network that requires dynamic adjustment
in real time. However, large-scale traffic control technology based
on multiple smart devices and reinforcement learning is able to
solve this problem.
In the next five years, the collaboration of multiple smart devices will
play a role in all aspects of urban life. The efficient collaboration of
warehousing robots will allow them to rapidly sort goods, improving
logistics efficiency and reducing storage and transportation costs.
On the road, driverless vehicles will determine whether to allow other
vehicles to go first at intersections, improving the safety and flow of
traffic. Traffic light signals will consider real-time traffic conditions at
the current intersection and adjacent intersections to more efficiently
alleviate traffic jams. Online ride-hailing platforms will optimize
vehicle dispatch based on the demand in different areas, reducing
the vehicle wait time and increasing drivers' income.
The development and popularization of new AI paradigms, such
as multiple smart device collaboration and swarm intelligence, will
upgrade the economy and society as a whole. AI will no longer be
just a single tool, but a core system that coordinates all aspects of
work and life.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 12
5. MODULARIZATION WILL
MAKE CHIP DESIGN EASIER
OVERVIEW
The traditional chip design model cannot efficiently keep up with the
demand for the fast iteration, customization, and fragmentation of
chips. Open instruction sets, such as RISC-V, and the corresponding
open-source SoC chip designs, advanced abstract hardware
description languages, and IP-based template chip design methods
have facilitated the agile design of chips and the rapid development
of the open-source chip ecosystem. In addition, the chiplet-based
modular design method uses advanced encapsulation methods to
incorporate chip modules with different functions into a single chip.
This will allow developers to quickly customize chips to meet their
application requirements, further accelerating chip delivery.
ANALYSIS
In the AIoT era, everything is gradually moving in the direction of
online, digital, and intelligent processes. This is set to drive explosive
growth in chip demand and create a huge and open market. The
chip market will be characterized by the need for fragmentation
and customization as well as new requirements for chip design.
ANYONE WHO CAN
QUICKLY LAUNCH The traditional chip industry environment, that prioritizes the size
A DEDICATED CHIP and strength of investments, brands, and processes, will gradually
CAN SEIZE MARKET
give way to an industry pattern defined by the speed at which
OPPORTUNITIES
enterprises can adapt to market demand and lower prices. In such
an application-driven environment, anyone who can quickly launch
a dedicated chip can seize market opportunities. More and more
system and application service companies are launching dedicated
chips. Application companies such as Apple, Google, Alibaba,
Amazon, and Tesla are beginning to enter the chip design field by
creating their own chips or jointly developing chip products.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 13
Existing chip design models involve high costs and long cycles.
Developing a mid-end chip often requires hundreds of years in
man-hours and tens of millions, maybe even hundreds of millions,
of dollars in investment. This seriously hinders the speed of chip
innovation. In particular, as chip process scales are reduced from
10nm to 7nm and then to 5nm, the cost and time requirements for
chip development will significantly increase with each reduction
in the process scale. Driven by cost and market pressures,
the semiconductor industry is actively looking for new chip
development models to meet the demand for low-cost and rapid
chip development. IP-based reusable design methodology does
away with the need to repeatedly design functional chip modules,
so chips can be designed in a modular manner. The reuse of IP
modules with different functions in different chips will popularize
"system on chips". In recent years, open instruction sets, such as
RISC-V, their corresponding open-source SoC chip designs, advanced
abstract hardware description languages, such as Chisel, and IP-
based modular template chip design methods have promoted the
agile design of chips and the rapid development of the open-source
chip ecosystem. As a result, more and more chip companies are
designing open-source hardware architectures.
Looking to the future, a "chiplet" modular design method is set to
become a new industry trend. By breaking down complex functions,
this method develops a variety of chiplets with single specific
functions, such as data storage, computing, signal processing, or
data stream management. Modular chiplets with different functions
are integrated into a silicon chip, giving rise to smaller and more
compact computer system structures. In the current chip design
mode, you need to purchase IPs from different IP providers, including
soft IP cores and hard IP cores, and combine them with your own
modules to form an SoC. Then, you must complete the chip design
and production process on a certain manufacturing process node.
In the future, computer system structures may not be composed of
separately encapsulated chips, but of chiplets connected to a chip
network on a large silicon wafer. Ultimately, modular chip technology
will allow us to assemble chips like building blocks.
The modular design model has the potential to revolutionize the
entire chip industry from upstream EDA tools and IC design to
manufacturing processes and advanced sealing and testing. Making
chips easier to design will allow designers to customize dedicated
chips at a lower cost and higher efficiency. This will give rise to a
more innovative, active, and prosperous chip industry.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 14
6. MASS MARKET
ADOPTION OF PRODUCTION-
GRADE BLOCKCHAIN
TECHNOLOGY WILL CHANGE
EVERYDAY LIFE
OVERVIEW
Blockchain as a Service (BaaS) will make it even easier for
enterprises to apply blockchain technology. This will give rise to
various hardened core algorithm hardware chips for terminals,
clouds, and chains designed specifically for blockchain. The
anchoring of global physical assets and on-chain assets will further
expand the boundaries of the value Internet and interconnect
thousands of links. In the future, a large number of innovative
blockchain application scenarios and multi-dimensional collaboration
across industries and ecosystems will emerge. Large-scale
production-level blockchain applications with tens of millions of
active users will be made available to the public.
By ensuring that data and assets can be
trusted, blockchain will cement its status as
an infrastructure of the digital economy era."
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 15
ANALYSIS
2019 was a milestone year for blockchain technology in China, as it
officially become part of national strategy, prompting unprecedented
optimism concerning the development of the blockchain industry.
The application of blockchain technology has been extended to
digital finance, digital government, intelligent manufacturing, supply
chain management, and other fields. Leading blockchain vendors
have entered the field to promote technological breakthroughs and
commercial applications. Enterprise stablecoins, such as JP Morgan
Coin and Facebook Libra, and national digital currencies, are trying to
restructure the global financial infrastructure. Massive user scenarios
will pose a test for blockchain, with demands for higher system
processing capacity and greater pressure on nodes participating in
information storage and synchronization. If applied in the existing
technology environment, system performance and operating
efficiency will decline.
The path of blockchain development will gradually become clear as
it moves from subversion to supplementation, from decentralization
to disintermediation, and as alliance chain architectures become
mainstream technology in the industry. Focusing on the development
of large-scale consensus networks with high throughput and low
latency, the value of multi-party collaboration in various industries
will become increasingly apparent. In the physical world, information
authenticity assurance during off-chain to on-chain anchoring has
always been a focus of the industry’s technical research. Currently,
different industries are forming their own local area networks (LAN).
By improving data sharing, they can help ensure the unobstructed
flow of value in value networks. We expect this trend to go on to
form a true Internet of Value. In a commercial network, blockchain
ensures that all information is digitized and shared in real time. In
this way, multi-party entities with high dispersion, long connections,
and many involved links can still cooperate effectively. However,
this also demands greater storage expenditures, key security,
and data privacy.
Looking forward to 2020, BaaS will make it even easier for
enterprises to apply blockchain technology. While commercial
applications are implemented on a large scale, the LAN and
data silo problems of blockchain networks will be solved by new
universal cross-chain technology. Self-controllable security with
privacy protection algorithms and hardened hardware chips will
become a new focus in blockchain technology as we work to
ensure infrastructure performance and security. An all-in-one
solution based on terminal, cloud, and chain software and hardware
products will accelerate the construction of enterprise blockchains
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 16
and commercial networks. By integrating blockchain with AIoT
technology, we can anchor global physical assets and on-chain
assets, further expanding the boundaries of the value Internet and
achieving the interconnection of all blockchains. By ensuring that
data and assets can be trusted, blockchain will cement its status as
an infrastructure of the digital economy era.
In the electrical age, power consumption was the indicator that
best measured economic development. In the 4G era, the number
of active Internet users was a marker of prosperity. In the digital
economy era, we believe that the number of innovative blockchain
application scenarios and multi-dimensional collaboration across
industries and ecosystems will emerge as a similar status symbol.
In addition, a number of large-scale blockchain production-level
applications capable of supporting tens of millions of daily active
users will be made available to the public. Blockchain-based
distributed ledgers will further promote industrial digitalization and
serve as the basis for the effective transfer of value. This will allow us
to build a next-generation value Internet and a contractual society.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 17
7. QUANTUM COMPUTING
IS READY TO REACH NEW
HEIGHTS
OVERVIEW
In 2019, the fight for quantum supremacy once again made quantum
computing headline news in science and technology circles.
Superconducting quantum computing chips made the industry more
optimistic about potential progress in superconducting technology
and large-scale quantum computing implementations. In 2020, the
QUANTUM COMPUTING quantum computing field will experience increased investment, fierce
IS EXPECTED TO USHER competition, accelerated industrialization, and ecosystem growth.
IN REVOLUTIONARY
ECONOMIC AND Two key technical milestones, fault-tolerant quantum computing
SOCIAL PROGRESS and the demonstration of the practical advantages of quantum
computing, will prove to be the turning points in the practical use
of quantum computing. It will be difficult to achieve either of these
tasks in the next few years, and quantum computing will enter a
period of important technological development.
ANALYSIS
By utilizing the non-classic nature of quantum mechanics,
quantum computing is expected to disrupt current computing
technology and usher in revolutionary economic and social
progress. Currently, quantum computing is moving out of the lab
and into practical applications. In 2019, Google announced that
it had achieved "quantum supremacy", meaning that its quantum
computer could perform a task that could not be completed by any
classical computer. However, its competitor at IBM immediately
refuted the claim and maintained that the task was actually within
the capabilities of classical computing. Putting aside Google's
claim, its hardware development has given rise to optimistic
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 18
expectations concerning superconducting technology and large-
scale quantum computing implementations. Quantum computing
will develop rapidly in 2020 and enter a crucial stage of accelerated
industrialization.
In terms of technology, superconducting quantum computing will
continue to occupy the central stage and draw attention away from
other paths of hardware innovation. The progress Google made on
superconducting quantum computing is being followed by many
others. In 2020, they will either achieve amazing reproducible
results or fall into a trap due to the highly complex engineering
required. The leading team is now focused on two goals that are
more important and less controversial than quantum supremacy:
fault-tolerance quantum computing and the demonstration of the
practical advantages of quantum computing. The first goal refers to
the attempt to avoid the accumulation of hardware errors through
quantum error correction. This will require breakthroughs in precision
and scale. To achieve the second goal, the team must provide
convincing proof that quantum computers can solve practical
problems with performance surpassing that of classical computing.
Whether such practical advantages can be demonstrated without
solving the error correction problem is still an open question. Due to
the large scales required by actual problems, the requirements for
accuracy may be lower than error correction requirements. In 2020,
and the next few years, it will be very difficult to achieve either of
these two goals. Therefore, quantum computing will enter a crucial
period of technological development.
In the industry and ecosystem, planning and investment by
governments, enterprises, and academic institutions will be
enhanced and expanded. Competition will intensify in different
ways: Transparency will decrease as the leading teams expand, and
there is a risk these teams will attempt to place barriers in each
other's way. The division of labor will be further refined: Fields such
as refrigeration, microwaves, low-temperature electronic control,
design automation, and preparation and foundry will benefit from
capital infusions, policy support, and ecosystem cultivation. Leading
enterprises in various industries will try to explore and use these
technologies to improve their algorithms and software.
Open platforms and services will reduce
the time and costs required for research
and entrepreneurship, accelerating iteration
and innovation."
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 19
Globally, industry groups, academic communities, and open
platforms and services will empower one another. The engineering
complexity that practitioners in the industry must deal with is beyond
the reach of any purely academic team. The academic research
will proceed along highly uncertain and disruptive paths. Open
platforms and services will reduce the time and costs required for
research and entrepreneurship, accelerating iteration and innovation
throughout the entire field. This ecosystem relies on the free flow
of talent, strong basic research capabilities, and powerful enterprise
implementation capabilities. It will also benefit from large-scale and
efficient government investment and policies aimed at lowering
thresholds, inspiring innovation, and promoting private investment.
Expectations and reality always fluctuate. Over the past two
years, hardware development has provided the greatest drive
to quantum computing, but there are new challenges on the
horizon. Technological progress in 2020 will primarily come from
breakthroughs in basic technologies. Although these advances are
less flashy, they will raise quantum computing to new heights.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 20
8. NEW MATERIALS WILL
DRIVE THE SEMICONDUCTOR
REVOLUTION
OVERVIEW
The increasing struggle to keep up with Moore's Law and the
explosion of computing power and storage demand have made it
extremely difficult for classic silicon-based transistors to maintain
the continuous development of the semiconductor industry.
Currently, major semiconductor manufacturers have no clear
answers about how to develop chips below 3nm. New materials will
give rise to new logic, storage, and interconnection concepts and
devices through new physical mechanisms, promoting innovation
in the semiconductor industry. For example, loss-free electronics
and spintronics can be implemented by means of topological
descriptors and 2D superconducting materials, which may become
the foundation for new high-performance logic and interconnection
devices. New magnetic materials and new resistive materials can
deliver high-performance magnetic storage, such as SOT-MRAM
and resistive storage.
ANALYSIS
For half a century, the semiconductor industry has been attempting
to follow Moore's Law, creating great economic benefits and
fundamentally altering human society in the process. However, as
the emergence of AI and big data has driven more innovation in the
cloud and terminal devices, the semiconductor industry is finding
it hard to keep up due to a slowdown in product upgrades and the
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 21
explosive increase in computing and storage demands driven by big
data. It is increasingly difficult to keep reducing the scale of classic
silicon-based transistors, making it difficult to maintain sustainable
development of the semiconductor industry.
Although new materials and device architectures, such as high-k
dielectrics, FinFET, and copper wires have expanded the options
open to traditional semiconductor manufacturers and are gradually
becoming mainstream, they have not fundamentally changed
the traditional principles of logic, storage, and interconnection
or the physical principles these devices operate under. Major
semiconductor manufacturers have no clear answers about how
to create chips below 3nm. However, what is clear is that more
and more new materials will be applied in the semiconductor
industry. These will be used to implement new logic, storage,
and interconnection concepts and devices through new
physical mechanisms.
In the near future, new materials, such as germanium and III-V
materials, may replace silicon as the material used for transistor
channels and increase transistor speeds. New dielectric materials,
such as ferroelectric materials, may produce extremely steep
subthreshold slopes, reducing the energy consumption of transistors.
New metal materials, such as the use of cobalt to replace tungsten
contacts and copper interconnects, will enhance stability and reduce
signal latency. 2D materials or epitaxially grown nanolayer materials
may be used for 3D heap architectures to increase the density of
chips. The physical mechanisms of these devices are generally clear,
however, in large-scale applications, semiconductor manufacturers
must still address challenges in process implementation and
engineering support.
From a longer-term perspective, more
challenging materials and new physical
mechanisms will be crucial if the
semiconductor industry is to maintain or even
accelerate its exponential growth."
New physical mechanisms will be the foundation for the new
high-performance logic and interconnection devices. For example,
strongly-correlated materials, topological descriptors based on
quantum effects, and the superconductivity at magic angles of
newly discovered 2D materials may lead to loss-free electronics and
spintronics. Using the spin-orbit coupling of new magnetic materials,
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 22
we can prepare brand-new high-performance magnetic storage,
such as SOT-MRAM. In addition, the new phenomenon of resistivity
makes it possible to use new high-density and high-stability resistive
random access memory (RRAM). Although we are just now starting
to explore these new mechanisms, they can fundamentally solve
the restrictions that physics places on traditional devices and
break Moore's Law.
New materials and new mechanisms will completely disrupt the
traditional semiconductor industry by driving fundamental changes
in material growth, device preparation, and the working principles
of circuits. This will present historic challenges and opportunities to
device manufacturers, fabs, and circuit design companies as well as
exciting opportunities for emerging companies and industries.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 23
9. PRIVACY-SENSITIVE AI
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD
OVERVIEW
As data transmission increases, the costs of policy compliance also
increase. Using AI to protect data privacy is becoming a hot new
technology opportunity. AI technology can help users implement
specific computing processes while ensuring the security and
privacy of data for the different parties. This solution maximizes the
value of data by breaking open data silos and addressing the lack of
trust that hinders data sharing.
ANALYSIS
In the digital economy era, data has become a new factor of
production in social and economic development. Consequently,
we are increasingly aware of the value of data flows. However, as
enterprises construct digital systems, problems in planning, design,
and management can result in difficulties linking the functions of
different business systems, so that information is not shared and
exchanged. This often leads to data silos that separate the data in
different systems and further restricts the value created by data
sharing. Due to growing data privacy concerns, the government
is taking action to develop data use legislation. As a result, large
amounts of data cannot be aggregated for computation. To address
the problem of data silos, most data sharing platforms are essentially
based on centralized data exchange mechanisms. This approach has
issues, including complex processes, high communication costs, low
efficiency, unclear ownership, and a high risk of data leakage. These
platforms cannot protect the personal privacy of users, however, by
using AI security technology for privacy protection, we can ensure
the security and privacy of the data of all parties while using this data
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 24
for specific training and AI applications. This greatly reduces trust
costs and accounting costs, allowing us to fully utilize the value of
the data and solve the problems of data silos and low trust during
data sharing.
Using AI security technology to protect data privacy extends the
scope of traditional distributed computing and information security
and provides a new computing mode for collaborative network
computing. This model protects data security by combining multiple
technologies, including secure multi-party computing, differential
privacy, homogeneous encryption, garbled circuit, encrypted search,
and computing, and trusted software and hardware. AI can also be
used to ensure model robustness and security through methods
such as model reinforcement, data poisoning protection, and
adversarial example prevention. Building a data security system
based on privacy protection technology will become a cornerstone
for the development of big data, cloud computing, and IoT.
Balancing development efficiency with security risks has long been
BY USING AI SECURITY a core issue facing the big data industry. Government agencies,
TECHNOLOGY FOR
enterprises, and other organizations with massive data volumes
PRIVACY PROTECTION,
WE CAN ENSURE THE have an important responsibility to protect data privacy, and such
SECURITY AND PRIVACY organizations also benefit from the value of this data. Individual end-
OF THE DATA OF
users can control access rights to personal data and participate in
ALL PARTIES
value allocation under the protection of laws and regulations. With
the protections provided by AI security technology, organizations
and individuals do not have to transfer the ownership of data.
Instead, they can lease the rights to use data to participate in value
allocation. Technologies such as secure multi-party computing,
shared learning, and federated learning are used for secure AI
and can solve challenges that the industry encounters in the data
aggregation process. For example, this approach can solve the lack
of data attribute dimensions on the part of financial institutions
such as shopping platforms and banks, which makes it difficult to
recommend products. It will also solve the problem of insufficient
data volumes in the medical diagnostics and voice assistant
industries. In addition, this will open up public government data to
benefit the people and new businesses.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 25
10. CLOUD COMPUTING
WILL DRIVE IT INNOVATION
OVERVIEW
With the further development of cloud technology, clouds have gone
far beyond the scope of IT infrastructure and are gradually evolving
into the focal points of all IT innovation. Clouds already extend
through the entire IT chain, covering new chips, new databases,
self-driving and adaptive networks, big data, AI, IoT, blockchain, and
quantum computing. At the same time, by deriving new technical
models, such as serverless computing, cloud-native software
architecture, integrated software and hardware design, and intelligent
automated O&M, the cloud is redefining every aspect of IT. In a broad
sense, the cloud is constantly turning new IT technologies into easy-
to-access services and becoming the infrastructure of the entire
digital economy.
ANALYSIS
With the development of computer technology in the traditional IT
era, the industry defined standard software and hardware interfaces
for computers, greatly reducing the dependency between software
and hardware technologies, allowing them to evolve separately along
parallel lines. In the era of full migration to the cloud, the limitations
of the traditional model of separate software and hardware iterations
gradually became clear. Today's applications are more and more
complex and require ever-greater computing power. However,
barriers between algorithms, software, and hardware result in a
huge waste of computing power, meaning we cannot improve IT
computing efficiency or reduce computing costs in ultra-large-scale
computer scenarios. At the same time, as most enterprises have
begun to fully embrace cloud computing, and must find ways to
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 26
maximize the value of the cloud, quickly launch and efficiently run
applications, and startup businesses in seconds in order to cope with
the rapidly changing market.
In core technology fields related to software and hardware, we
can use self-controllable technologies to redesign the system
interfaces between software and hardware. This means that
algorithms, software, and hardware designs are better aligned for
improved communication. As a result, we will be able to maximize
the computing power of existing hardware and build new types
of computers better suited to the cloud infrastructure. By greatly
improving computing efficiency, we can break out of the computing
power growth curve proposed by Moore's Law and showcase the
overall advantages of cloud computing. Over the past few years,
AI chips for accelerated machine learning and next-generation
dedicated virtualization chips have all taken full advantage of
the hardware/software co-design model to improve computing
efficiency. On the other hand, hardware/software co-design provides
better control over the underlying technology and can improve the
reliability and ease-of-use of the cloud.
In terms of cloud resource delivery methods, cloud native has made
cloud computing more standardized. Cloud computing power is
further enhanced by application development and delivery methods
based on serverless computing. Serverless uses a higher level of
abstraction which allows cloud platforms to allocate, manage, and
scale computing resources, allowing developers to focus on their
business logic without explicitly owning computing resources. This
frees them from resource management and system O&M work. In
addition, the pay-as-you-go billing method can help developers to
optimize their costs. Serverless computing further simplifies the
microservice application architecture. Users only need to write event-
driven functions, making it much easier to build cloud applications.
Serverless computing further facilitates the development of
event-driven application architectures, effectively decouples event
sources and event processors, and provides a flexible system
that allows enterprises to quickly adapt to changes and make
real‑time decisions.
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 27
Future software must live and evolve on the cloud. Cloud native and
serverless computing are reshaping everything from need-based
software design R&D, release, and build distribution to O&M. In the
All-in-Cloud era, the redesigned cloud computing infrastructure,
integrated software and hardware, and the new cloud-native resource
delivery methods will improve computing efficiency and ease-of-
use while reducing computing and O&M costs. This will further
consolidate the status of the cloud as the key infrastructure of the
digital economy era.
Most enterprises have begun to fully embrace
cloud computing, and must find ways to
maximize the value of the cloud."
Alibaba Cloud | Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by Alibaba DAMO Academy 28
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We would like to thank the experts from inside and outside the Alibaba Group who contributed
their valuable views and helped us compile the Top 10 Technology Trends in 2020 by DAMO
Academy. (Listed by last name)
An, Bo Jia, Yangqing Qi, Zhengwei Yin, Wotao
Alonso, Gustavo Jia, Yangqing Qi, Yuan Yu, Chun
Bao, Yungang Jiang, Wenshuai Ren, Kui Zelnik, Lihi
Cai, Dezhong Jiang, Guofei Shi, Yaoyun Zeng, Zhenyu
Cai, Dezhong Jiang, Jiangwei Si, Luo Zhang, Hanwang
Cai, Jianfei Jiao, Yang Tang, Pingzhong Zhang, Xinggong
Chen, Ling Jin, Rong Tong, Yongxin Zhang, Hao
Chen, Quan Jin, Xiaogang Wang, Gang Zhang, Hui
Chen, Yiqiang Li, Feifei Wang, Haiyong Zhang, Kejun
Chen, Yanguang Li, Mo Wu, Chentao Zhang, Lijun
Cong, Gao Liang, Xiaodan Wu, Hanqing Zhang, Ming
Chng, Eng Siong Lin, Guosheng Wu, Huaqiang Zhang, Weinan
Ding, Xianfeng Liu, Wei Wu, Changmao Zhang, Xiantao
Ding, Yu Liu, Shaohui Xiao, Li Zhang, Lei
Gao, Lianli Liu, Zhe Xie, Yuan Zhao, Kun
Gao, Yi Lu, Hongtao Xu, Yingqing Zhou, Jingren
Han, Jinsong Lu, Wei Yan, Zhijie Zhu, Jianke
He, Tian Lu, Shijian Yang, Hongxia Zhu, Zhanxing
He, Shibo Meng, Jianjun Yao, Chengwei Zhuang, Guolin
Hua, Xiansheng Nie, Zaiqing Yao, Gang Zou, Tao
ABOUT Established in September 2009, Alibaba Cloud is the cloud computing arm of Alibaba Group and develops highly scalable platforms for cloud computing and data management. It provides a comprehensive suite of cloud computing services available from www.alibabacloud.com to support participants of Alibaba Group’s online and mobile commerce ecosystem, including sellers and other third-party customers and businesses. Alibaba Cloud is a business within Alibaba Group which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the symbol BABA. www.alibabacloud.com/contact-sales
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