Tug of war - Q&A about 2019 - Global Asset Allocation Strategy December 2018 - Nordea

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Tug of war - Q&A about 2019 - Global Asset Allocation Strategy December 2018 - Nordea
Tug of war – Q&A about 2019
Global Asset Allocation Strategy
December 2018

Investments │ Wealth Management
Tug of war - Q&A about 2019 - Global Asset Allocation Strategy December 2018 - Nordea
December 2018

                    OVERWEIGHT EQUITIES VS. FIXED INCOME
                   • The recent weakness in equities was caused by monetary
                     conditions, macro and political issues. However, we have not
                     seen a markedly deterioration in fundamental factors.
                   • Given the still supportive economic and earnings growth, we
                     remain overweight equities, as the recent sell-off has improved
                     risk/reward.
                   • Next year we expect a tug of war between tighter monetary
                     conditions and still strong growth dynamics that will cause higher
                     volatility.
                              EQUITY STRATEGY: OW EM, UW Europe

Tug of war         • We recommend to overweight EM equities as we expect
                     Chinese stimulus to eventually bite.
                   • Europe remains an underweight given political headwinds and
                     lacklustre earnings growth.
                   • We move towards a slightly more defensive stance in the sector
                     strategy.

                         FIXED INCOME STRATEGY: Underweight HY bonds
                   • We reduce risk in the bond portfolio as well, by moving HY to
                     underweight and government bonds to overweight.
                   • Federal reserve is tightening its monetary policy, which creates
                     upward pressure in the short end of the yield curve, tightens
                     financial conditions and hence causes headwind for risky bonds.
                   • With default rates bottoming out in a mature cycle, spreads are
                     vulnerable going into next year.
                            This material was prepared by Investments    |
Tug of war - Q&A about 2019 - Global Asset Allocation Strategy December 2018 - Nordea
Market performance & recommendations
                                                                                                        ASSET ALLOCATION        -      N       +          Comments

           Growth worries has led to renewed weakness in markets                                         Equities
                                                                                                         Fixed Income
                                                                                                        EQUITY REGIONS          -      N       +
                                                                                                         North America
                                                                                                         Europe
                                                                                                         Japan
                                                                                                         Asia excl. Japan
                                                                                                         Latin America
                                                                                                         Eastern Europe
                                                                                                         Denmark
                                                                                                         Finland
                                                                                                         Norway
                                                                                                         Sweden
                                                                                                        EQUITY SECTORS          -      N       +
                                                                                                         Industrials
                                                                                                         Cons Discretionary
                                                                                                         Cons Staples
                                                                                                         Health Care
                                                                                                         Financials
                                                                                                         IT
                                                                                                         Comm. Services                               New sector
                                                                                                         Utilities
                                                                                                         Energy
                                                                                                         Materials
                                                                                                         Real Estate
                                                                                                        BOND SEGMENTS           -      N       +
                                                                                                         Government
                                                                                                         Investment Grade
                                                                                                         High Yield
                                                                   Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea      Emerging Markets

                                                                                                           Current allocation   Previous allocation

                                                                                              This material was prepared by Investments               |
2018 – Mean reversion; last years winners are this years losers
15,0 % Returns YTD 2018, EUR (unless otherwise stated, updated 30 November)

10,0 %

 5,0 %

 0,0 %

 -5,0 %

-10,0 %

-15,0 %

                                                                                                                    Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

                                                                              This material was prepared by Investments    |
2018 – Not a good year, not a very bad year either
                                                                                                                       2007
                                                                           2018 until Nov 30                           1992
                                                                                                                       1987                   2012
                                                                                                            2018       1984                   2010
                                                                                                             2015      1978                   2006          2017
                                                                                                             2011      1956       2016        1988          1999
                                                                                                             2005      1948       2014        1986          1996
                                                                                                             1994      1947       2004        1979          1983                    2013
                                                                           2001        2000                  1970      1916       1993        1972          1982        2009        1997
                                                                           1973        1977       1990       1960      1912       1971        1964          1976        2003        1991
                                                                           1966        1969       1981       1923      1911       1968        1952          1967        1998        1989
                                                                           1957        1962       1953       1902      1906       1965        1949          1963        1961        1985
                                                                           1941        1946       1939       1896      1899       1959        1944          1951        1943        1980
                                                                           1940        1932       1934       1895      1892       1926        1909          1942        1925        1955        1995
                                       1974                                1903        1929       1914       1894      1889       1921        1905          1919        1924        1950        1975
                                       1930                                1890        1913       1887       1888      1881       1886        1901          1898        1922        1938        1945        1958
                2008                   1917                    1920        1884        1910       1883       1882      1874       1878        1900          1891        1918        1936        1927        1928        1935            1954
    1931        1937                   1907        2002        1893        1876        1873
                                                                                        1873 1877            1875      1871       1872        1897          1880        1885        1904        1915        1908        1879            1933

                                                                                                                                   +10%+15%

                                                                                                                                               +15%+20%

                                                                                                                                                             +20%+25%

                                                                                                                                                                         +25%+30%

                                                                                                                                                                                     +30%+35%

                                                                                                                                                                                                 +35%+40%

                                                                                                                                                                                                             +40%+45%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                         +45%+50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         +50%+55%
     -40%-45%

                 -35%-40%

                            -30%-35%

                                        -25%-30%

                                                    -20%-25%

                                                                -15%-20%

                                                                            -10%-15%

                                                                                                                        +5%+10%
                                                                                        -5%-10%

                                                                                                              +0%+5%
                                                                                                   -0%-5%

                                                                                                            S&P 500 total return (USD) 1871-2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

                                                                                                                                                          This material was prepared by Investments                                 |
Moving into late cycle and higher realized volatility

                                                                                              Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

                                                        This material was prepared by Investments    |
Will we see the longest equity bull market on record?
    Still a long way to go before we are at “all time long” in the US                                 The normal state for US equities is – Bull Market!

 700%                                                                                  160
        Return, S&P 500                                     147         Duration
                                                                       (months)
                                                                                       140
 600%
                                                            582%
                                                                             116
                                                                                       120
 500%
         97
                                                                                       100
 400%                  86

                                               73                                      80
 300%                                                 60            60
                                                                           305%
                              50                                                       60
                49
        250%                          44
 200%                 223%                           229%
                                                                                       40

 100%                                         126%                                     20
               102%                                                102%
                             86%     80%

  0%                                                                                   0
        1921 1942 1949 1957 1962 1974 1982 1987 2002 2009

                      S&P 500, total return     Duration, months
                                                                   Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                              Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

                                                                                                            This material was prepared by Investments    |
Boom, bust or base scenario in 2019?
                          Scenarios for equities in 2019                                              Scenarios for the 10-year US treasury yield

                                                              Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                    Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

65% •   Expansion: economic expansion continues while wage and inflation pressures remain moderate and rates rise slowly. (5-10%)
20% •   Melt-up: US hard data catch up to soft data, China stimulus results in overheating, the trade war eases, and the rest of the world accelerates (15-20%).
15% •   2019 recession: Inflation rises while economic activity moderates. Fed behind the curve, the curve flattens and equities turn mid-2019. (-30%).

                                                                                                         This material was prepared by Investments       |
What are the expected hot topics for 2019?

 “Peak growth”                                            Inflation and monetary policy                                 Trade war
 Downside risks have risen for the global                 A maturing cycle, the fear that Fed                           The trade war has deeper roots than just
 economy during 2018, and earnings                        always “tighten until something breaks”,                      the trade deficit, which means that US
 growth is slowing next year. Lately,                     and the fact that we are moving from QE                       /China related conflicts most likely will
 investors have put more weight on that                   to QT in the western part of the world,                       stick around next year. Being the worlds
 everything is peaking, rather than still                 put both inflation and monetary policy                        two largest economies, markets are right
 solid levels. Risky assets performance in                front and center for investors in 2019.                       to be concerned. We are hoping for de-
 2019 will of course depend on that                                                                                     escalation, but an escalation is more
 fundamentals stay solid, but also to a                                                                                 likely.
 large extent on market sentiment.

                       Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                         Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                 Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

                                                                                                               This material was prepared
                                                                                                                                     9    by Investments     |
Where are we in the business cycle?
                          Phases:               Repair                   Recovery                   Expansion                       Downturn
                                                 Weak                     Moderate                      Strong                          Weak
            Economic growth
                                                improving                 improving                 slowing growth                  Slowing down
Economic

            Credit growth                         Weak                      Rising                       High                         Negative

            Monetary policy                      Easing               Tightening begins            Tightening / tight                  Easing

                                                  Low                     Moderate                       High                         Moderate
            Inflation
                                            Bottoming                       Rising                      Rising                          falling

            Yield curve                          Steep                    Flattening                Flat / Inverted                  Steepening
Financial

                                            Below avg.                    About avg.                  Above avg.                     Below avg.
            Valuation
                                                  rising                    Rising                      Rising                         Falling
                                        Profits increasing               Profits rising            Profits increasing               Profits falling
            Fundamentals
                                    Debt and leverage declining   Debt and leverage declining   Debt and leverage rising       Debt and leverage rising
                                            Above avg.                    Below avg.                  Below avg.                      Above avg
            Volatility
                                                Declining                   Stable                      Rising                        declining

                                         Credit preferred                Both Credit               Equity preferred                 Neither Credit
            Credit vs. Equities
                                            over Equity                   and Equity                  over Credit                     nor Equity
                  2018                   2017

                                                                                                This material was prepared by Investments   |
Where is the global economy headed?
                Global growth set to decelerate somewhat                                             Chinese stimulus will provide a boost

                                                          Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                  Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Up, but at a slower pace than in 2018. However, the slowdown is likely to remain limited in 2019, and the economy is set to keep growing above potential.
 •   Major risks stem from a slowdown in the US as fiscal stimulus wanes and monetary tightening kicks in. Also, the loss of momentum in Europe is worrying.
 •   The momentum in China has weakened, but policy easing will eventually stabilise growth. Put together, the macro backdrop is ok but with risks.

                                                                                                     This material was prepared by Investments      |
Will earnings continue to grow in 2019?
                  Earnings growth will normalize in 2019                                       Earnings growth will still be supportive for equity performance

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                     Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Earnings expectations for 2018 will be met, but the more important question is if earnings will continue to grow in 2019. We think so, but at a lower rate.
 •   Top-line growth will continue to get support from improving consumption and investments, though margin pressure might start to take its toll on earnings.
 •   16% earnings growth this year surprised investors positively, but has not led to price performance. Skepticism characterizes investors outlook for 2019.

                                                                                                           This material was prepared by Investments    |
Will profit margins collapse due to higher wages, financing and other input cost?
     Margins normally correct in recessions, or due to external shocks                         Wage growth and financing cost should take its toll

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                 Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •    Estimates point to further growth in already high margins next year. That sounds too good to be true, but we seldom see compression outside recessions.
 •    We expect that higher wage growth, financing costs, and a stronger USD in 2018 will take their toll on margins.
 •    However, both top line growth and pricing power have surprised to the upside and this could continue in 2019, keeping margins high.

                                                                                                       This material was prepared by Investments    |
How high can yields go?
              Interest rates decoupled from economic reality                                   The end is nigh: Markets are eyeing the end of the Fed cycle

                                             Expect convergence in
                                                     2019

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                   Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Monetary factors remain a key risk to the bull run in equities, as a late cycle environment implies monetary tightening.
 •   In 2017 rates decoupled from weaker economic growth, and something has to give.
 •   Bad news should be good news: moderating growth limit the upside to core interest rates from here.

                                                                                                          This material was prepared by Investments   |
Are we close to the pain threshold in yields?
     Markets: Short term lifts in the real rate hurt equities short term                       Economy: Higher rates beginning to dent parts of the economy

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                     Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Have rates moved too far already? Both the Feb. and Oct. correction was pre-empted by rapidly rising real rates.
 •   This, together with the recent weakness in US housing suggests that both financial markets and the economy are starting to react to higher rates…
 •   …indicating that core rates are close to the pain threshold aka. neutral rate. In our view, a self-correcting mechanism should keep a lid on yields.

                                                                                                           This material was prepared by Investments    |
Will the dollar contribute to financial headwinds in 2019?
        The USD has appreciated against all currencies this year                              Stretched positioning will temper further appreciation pressure

                                                           Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                     Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   The stronger dollar has boosted European investors’ returns from US-dollar based equity investments, but we don’t expect this to continue in 2019.
 •   We expect USD to stabilize and weaken due to valuation, changes in liquidity and positioning. Short term though, risk-off sentiment points the other way.
 •   Going forward a weaker dollar will also serve to ease the recent stress in Emerging Markets currencies, in the backdrop of a solid global growth picture.

                                                                                                           This material was prepared by Investments   |
Will geopolitics matter next year?
        The usual suspects apply when it comes to (geo)politics                           Oil has also experienced a wild ride YTD, but what about 2019?

                                                                                                                                                Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   The short answer is yes. However, our usual caveat applies: while affecting markets short term, the lasting effects are usually far smaller.
 •   Most concerning is the trade war, which could cause more lasting effects, and also the result of of Brexit. Italy and North Korea could pop up as well.
 •   Oil and the machinations around this central commodity spans both geopolitics, the global economy and is thus a constant companion to the market.

                                                                                                        This material was prepared by Investments       |
Will equities continue to derate?
               Equities are priced below long-term average                                     Its not abnormal that equites derate in FED hiking cycles

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                    Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Global equities have derated close to 20% since January 2018; due to extremely strong earnings growth and muted equity price development.
 •   Weaker cyclical outlook and higher bond yields are among the reasons for this derating.
 •   The derating can continue, but then equites would start to price in an economic recession, and we do not think a recession is likely next year.

                                                                                                        This material was prepared by Investments      |
Where is sentiment heading?
      Get used to higher volatility and more swings in sentiment…                                               …which in itself is very volatile

                                                               Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                       Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Sentiment is in itself a fickle indicator, and will most likely shift from bullish to bearish, and vice versa, several times during next year.
 •   With volatility moving higher as the cycle matures, we expect the swings in sentiment to increase as well. Prepare for a more bumpy ride during 2019.
 •   Currently, sentiment is beaten down and markets are still reluctant as risk-off is dominating. Should good news appear, there’s thus room for improvement.

                                                                                                             This material was prepared by Investments       |
Which risk factors to look out for in a late cycle environment?
      Risk 1: Further deterioration of the growth/inflation trade-off                               Risk 2: The missing HY link an a late cycle playbook

                                                               Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                   Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   Although the market is pricing the end of the Fed cycle, a Fed policy error is still ranking high in the list of classic late cycle risks.
 •   A further deterioration of the growth inflation trade-off would leave the Fed with no choice but to move policy rates above the pain threshold.
 •   Wider HY spreads are a classic late-cycle phenomenon. Significant spread widening would mean more tightening, adding to the list of monetary worries.

                                                                                                             This material was prepared by Investments   |
Is the credit cycle about to end?
                       Big differences in yield levels                                         Lower oil price has increased the pressure for spread widening

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                    Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   The credit cycle still has legs to run, but credit environment is turning more challenging as financing conditions tighten and the global economy moderates.
 •   For that reason, we downgrade high-yield bonds to underweight in our recommendations and increase government bonds to overweight.
 •   Bond market returns have been modest this year, and we expect that to continue.

                                                                                                           This material was prepared by Investments   |
Where is the best value in equity regions?
              US equities have been the strongest this year                                     Emerging Markets have taken the lead in earnings

                                                            Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea                                                    Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea

 •   We find the best value in Emerging Markets. The region has the strongest earnings outlook and the lowest valuation.
 •   Europe remains underweight with lagging earnings and continued political risks, although the latter may turn into positives from time to time.
 •   In the US, fundamentals are healthy but positioning is growing worrisome, and earnings are normalising, which is why we prefer neutral.

                                                                                                       This material was prepared by Investments       |
What are the best candidates from a sector perspective?
                 Defensives in the lead during the selloff                                    We favour IT over CS, but neutralize other bets as risks has increased

                                                                                              Sector                         Recommendation          Relative weight
                                                                                              Industrials                    Neutral                              -

                                                                                              Consumer Discretionary         Neutral                              -

                                                                                              Consumer Staples               Underweight                         -2%

                                                                                              Health Care                    Neutral                              -

                                                                                              Financials                     Neutral                              -

                                                                                              IT                             Overweight                          +2%

                                                                                              Communication Services         Neutral                              -

                                                                                              Utilities                      Neutral                              -

                                                                                              Energy                         Neutral                              -

                                                                                              Materials                      Neutral                              -

                                                           Source: Thomson Reuters / Nordea   Real Estate                    Neutral                              -

 •   We recommend overweight in IT, which benefit from both cyclical and structural factors.
 •   We neutralize underweights in some defensive sectors by reducing the IT overweight and lower Energy and Materials to neutral.
 •   With the changing sector setup, we introduce Communication Services and Real Estate at neutral weight.

                                                                                                                 This material was prepared by Investments   |
Nordea Global Asset Allocation Strategy Contributors

Global Investment Strategy          Strategists                    Assistants
Committee (GISC)                    Sebastian Källman              Victor Karlshoj Julegaard
                                    Strategist                     Assistant/Student
Leif-Rune Husebye Rein              sebastian.kallman@nordea.com   Victor.julegaard@nordea.com
Chief Investment Strategist         Sweden                         Denmark
leif-rune.rein@nordea.com                                          +45 5547 7088
+47 95 86 92 05                     Ville Korhonen
                                    Fixed Income Strategist        Mick Biehl
Michael Livijn                      ville.p.korhonen@nordea.com    Assistant/Student
Chief Investment Strategist         Finland                        Mick.Biehl@nordea.com
michael.livijn@nordea.com           +358 50 581 8261               Denmark
+46 8 579 42 619                                                   +45 5547 5935
                                    Espen R. Werenskjold
Antti Saari                         Senior Strategist              Amelia Marie Asp
Chief Investment Strategist         espen.werenskjold@nordea.com   Assistant/Student
antti.saari@nordea.com              Norway                         Amelia.Marie.Asp@nordea.com
+358 95 300 7019                    +47 91 36 51 91                +45 5547 2195

Andreas Østerheden                                                 Frederik Saul
Senior Strategist                                                  Assistant/Student
Andreas.osterheden@nordea.com                                      Frederik.Saul@nordea.com
Denmark                                                            +45 60126102
+45 5547 3349

Sigrid Wilter Slørstad
Senior Strategist
sigrid.wilter.slorstad@nordea.com
Norway
+47 90 94 40 57

                                                                    This material was prepared by Investments   |
DISCLAIMER

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unit - Nordea Investment Center (hereafter “IC”).
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