2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper

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2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
White paper

    2020: Beyond 4G
Radio Evolution for the
		 Gigabit Experience
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
Executive summary

                                                                    Maintaining the pace of radio
       Contents                                                     access evolution

       3        Mobile networks face a decade of change             This White Paper describes how the
                                                                    underlying radio access technologies
       4        Continued global effort will be vital               will develop further by another
                                                                    factor of 100 over the next 10 years,
       5        State of the art LTE-Advanced                       ensuring that there is no slowdown
                                                                    in the evolution of radio capabilities.
       6        Significant potential for further Radio Evolution   Nokia Siemens Networks is actively
                                                                    engaged in collecting requirements
                                                                    and viewpoints as well as shaping
       9        Beyond 4G: The technical cornerstones
                                                                    this development. We are researching
                                                                    advanced radio network solutions
       13       Techno-Economical aspects                           to support up to 1000 times higher
                                                                    traffic volumes compared to 2010
       14       Worldwide collaboration on standardization          traffic levels.

       14       Nokia Siemens Networks research leads the way       Welcome to the next evolutionary
                                                                    stage of the mobile experience –
       15       Conclusion: Delivering the gigabit experience       Beyond 4G.

2   Beyond 4G
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
Mobile Networks
   face a decade of change
Every year, the demand in mobile
broadband communications increases
dramatically as more and more
users subscribe to mobile broadband                                                                             Explosion of
packages. In addition, smartphones,                                                                           number of devices
super-phones and tablets with
powerful multimedia capabilities and
applications are becoming increasingly                                               Explosion of
                                                                                                                              Machine-to-machine
                                                                                     transactions
popular and are creating new demands
on mobile broadband. Finally, new
                                                     Explosion of
data services and applications, for                  traffc volume                                    Smartphones
example pervasive 3D multimedia,                                                                      Super-phones
are emerging, making the experience
of using mobile broadband better and                         Laptops
more exciting.

All these factors are adding up to
create an exponential increase in traffic   Figure 1. Multi-dimensional traffic growth in mobile networks
volumes and transactions. Meeting
the demand calls for “liquid network
capacity” that can adapt easily to
fluctuating user demands over time
and location. These trends, shown in
Figure 1, are expected to maintain their
momentum over the next decade and                                             Peak data rate
will be complemented by the arrival                                             6
of billions of machine devices and
                                                      Backwards                                             Spectral efficiency
related machine-to-machine (M2M)                     compatibility               4
applications.

Extrapolations of current growth trends                                          2
predict that networks need to be
prepared to support up to a thousand-             Energy                         0                                  Latency
fold increase in total mobile broadband
traffic by 2020. This figure assumes
a ten-fold increase in broadband
mobile subscribers and up to
100 times higher traffic per user                                                                                      6: No compromise
(beyond 1 GByte/sub/day), with                        Scalability                                    Consistency
                                                                                                                       5: Strong requirement
smartphones and super-phones                                                                                           4: Compromise possible
                                                                                                                       0: Not relevant
experiencing the fastest growth.                                                 Cost per Bit

In 2020, most important design
                                            Figure 2. Design criteria for Beyond 4G systems
targets are expected to be the cost per
delivered bit and system scalability. In
addition, future heterogeneous network
deployments will offer ubiquitous
connectivity with rock-solid quality
where necessary. Other important
targets are latency minimization,
consistent area performance and
energy efficiency for boosting
consumer experience.

                                                                                                                        Beyond 4G                  3
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
The wireless network’s environmental
    impact is becoming an increasingly
                                                           Enablers
    important consideration. Improving
    the energy efficiency of network
    components, such as base stations                    Multi-RAT
    and access points, not only cuts                 Heterogeneous
                                                          Networks
    CO2 emissions but, also reduces
    operational expenses, lowering
    the cost per bit. This is important,
    considering the expected traffic and                  Spectrum
                                                  Cognition, Pooling
    throughput growth up to 2020.

    A decade from now, mobile
    broadband systems must meet                       Coordination
                                                       CoMP, ICIC
    these requirements. Fulfilling these
    will strongly influence the economic
    success of the wireless sector, from
    device and component manufacturers,               Smaller Cells
                                                       Micro, Pico,
    to network and service providers.
                                                      Relay, Femto
    Today’s wireless systems fall short
    of 2020 demands and significant                                          Sp                 En                Ar              Ro           KPIs
                                                                               ec                 er                ea              bu
    research and development effort will                                         tra                gy                 Ef             stn
                                                                                    lE                 Ef                fic             es
    be needed over the next decade.                                                   ffic               fic
                                                                                                            ie
                                                                                                                            ien
                                                                                                                               c           s
                                                                                          ien                 nc                y
    Figure 3 shows the key enablers to be                                                    cy                 y
    investigated, as well as the different
    Key Performance Indicators that will
    be used to verify system performance.      Figure 3. Beyond 4G technology enablers, KPIs and optimization timelines

    Continued global
        effort will be vital
    Beyond 4G radio will require spectrum      network deployments with distributed                    requirements for next generation
    to support higher data rates and higher    cooperating nodes will need to be                       systems. This global effort started with
    capacity. The industry, for example        deployed. The introduction of a new                     the definition of IMT-2000 systems for
    vendors and CSPs, expects to obtain        Beyond 4G access system could be                        3G standardization. The requirements
    new spectrum at the world radio            considered if justified by significant                  for 4G systems were defined under
    conference (WRC2016). However,             gains (>50-100%) measured against                       the title IMT-Advanced. ITU-R is
    even today it can be seen that if new      the KPIs outlined in Figure 3.                          expected to analyze the demands and
    spectrum is allocated to mobile radio                                                              requirements for the next generation of
    applications, this will be far from        To create a globally-harmonized                         broadband wireless systems to guide
    sufficient to meet the predicted traffic   approach to specifying and developing                   and harmonize future developments
    demands for 2020. Thus, technologies       broadband wireless networks, ITU-R                      towards ‘Beyond 4G’.
    with increased spectral efficiency,        has established a widely accepted
    and new heterogeneous dense                framework by setting minimum

4   Beyond 4G
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
State of the art
    LTE-Advanced
Many CSPs have deployed
LTE Release 8 in commercial                     LTE-Advanced
networks to offer peak data rates                                                                Self optimization
                                                Toolbox
up to 100 Mbps. The first phase of                                                                                          Automatic optimization
the LTE-Advanced specification was
completed by the 3GPP Release 10
in June 2011. LTE-Advanced offers
peak rates of 1 Gbps by using carrier
                                                                                    Heterogeneous networks           Macro, Micro, Pico
aggregation and multi-antenna
                                                                                                                     coordination
transmission. LTE-Advanced will
raise spectral efficiency through                                                                                    Multi-system co-operation
coordinated multipoint transmission,
which refers to multi-antenna
transmission simultaneously from                                                    Relaying
multiple base stations.
                                                                                                          Out-band & in-band relay
As we have seen, traffic volumes are
likely to increase faster than the amount
of spectrum being made available and
the rise in spectral efficiency. More base                            Coordinated Multipoint
stations will therefore be needed to offer                                                        Coordination between
the necessary capacity. LTE-Advanced                                                              base stations
supports heterogeneous networks with
co-existing large macro cells, small
micro and pico cells, and WiFi access
points. Low cost deployment will be                                   MIMO
achieved by self-organizing features.                      8x                      4x     Downlink 8x8 MIMO
                                                                                          Uplink 4x4 MIMO

Many features of LTE-Advanced
have been studied by the research
community for years and will now
                                                      Carrier Aggregation
provide practical benefits for customers.
Figure 4 summarizes the main
LTE-Advanced features that can
                                                                +                Up to 100 MHz

be deployed flexibly on top of LTE                  Carrier 1       Carrier 2
Release 8 networks. The commercial
availability of LTE-Advanced features
is expected to be during 2013-2015.          Figure 4. LTE-Advanced and Self-Optimization toolbox of features

                                                                                                                        Beyond 4G                    5
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
Significant potential
        for further Radio Evolution
    Radio Evolution will not stop with         •	Radio implementation                            required to achieve that target.
    LTE-Advanced - on the contrary -              bandwidth increases                             Mobile broadband data in many
    the underlying technologies will           	The development of RF                            countries is carried today by the
    keep improving.                               technologies will enable                        UMTS 2100 MHz band with a total
                                                  radio implementation with wider                 of 2 x 60 MHz of spectrum.
    •	Digital processing                         bandwidth. Larger RF bandwidth
        power improves                            is another key factor in enabling               Refarming all 900 and 1800 MHz
    	The so-called Moore’s law                 higher data rate transmission.                  bands for mobile broadband would
        describes the long term trend                                                             give a total of 340 MHz of spectrum.
        in hardware and computing.             •	Optical fiber availability                      With 800 MHz and 2600 MHz
        The number of transistors on              and cost improves                               allocations, the total spectrum will be
        an integrated circuit doubles          	Fiber enables faster connections                600 MHz. These spectrum blocks are
        approximately every 18 to 24              to base stations, either as backhaul            already available in a few countries
        months. That trend has been               or front-haul up to the antenna.                and will be widely available by 2015.
        valid for more than 50 years and                                                          The entire spectrum identified for IMT
        there are no signs that the law will   These technology advancements                      amounts to more than 1,100 MHz,
        break down before 2020. Higher         will enable the deployment of higher               in addition to a large amount (about
        processing power enables higher        data rates and higher capacity, as                 500 MHz) of unlicensed spectrum
        data rate signal processing in the     well as driving down the cost per                  at 2.4 GHz and 5 GHz. The total
        digital baseband.                      bit. Yet, radio evolution also requires            spectrum will be 3 – 10 times
                                               spectrum. The amount of spectrum                   the current allocation for mobile
                                               available for mobile broadband may                 broadband. Spectrum evolution is
                                               increase by up to 10 times, but a lot              shown in Figure 5.
                                               of global coordination work will be

                                                       2000                                                                     Unlic 5 GHz

                                                       1800                                                                     Unlic 2.4 GHz

                                                                                                                                3700
                                                       1600
                                                                                                                                3400
                                                       1400
                                                                                                                                2600

                                                       1200                                                                     2300

                                                  MHz 1000                                                                      2100 TDD

                                                                                                                                2100
                                                        800
                                                                                                                                1800
                                                        600
                                                                                                                                900
                                                        400
                                                                                                                                800

                                                        200                                                                     700

                                                          0                                                                     450
                                                                  2010             2012            2015             2020

                                               Figure 5. Expected additional spectrum assets for mobile broadband

6   Beyond 4G
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
The link level capacity is bound by the
Shannon limit, but that does not apply
at the system level where several                            10.0
cells interact with each other. System
efficiency can be enhanced by clever
designs in which inter-cell interference                      8.0
can be optimized. Today’s spectral
efficiency is typically between 0.5 and
1.0 bps/Hz/cell (for example HSPA),
                                                              6.0
taking into account legacy terminal
and backhaul limitations. Efficiency         (bps/Hz/cell)
could be pushed to 5 - 10 bps/Hz/cell
by using multi-antenna and multi-cell                         4.0
transmission and cooperation as
shown in Figure 6.

Meanwhile, radio latency has no                               2.0

fundamental limits, except those
imposed by the speed of light, and
could be pushed into the millisecond                          0.0
range or even less by advanced                                      HSPA         LTE 2x2     LTE-        + COMP        + UE        + Further
                                                                    today                  Advanced                interference   innovations
protocol design. One millisecond                                                              4x4                  cancellation
corresponds to a round trip time
of 100 kilometers in optical fiber,
                                           Figure 6. Spectral Efficiency Evolution
therefore lower latency would be
beneficial for large amounts of
local content.

                                                                            Latency (ms)                      Latency (ms)
                                                                                              15.0
                                                       25.0
                                                                                              10.0                           Transport + core
                                                                                                                             BTS
                                                       20.0
                                                                                               5.0                           Air interface
                                                       15.0                                                                  UE
                                                                                               0.0
                                                                                                             LTE
                                                       10.0

                                                             5.0

                                                             0.0
                                                                    HSPA            LTE      Beyond 4G

                                           Figure 7. Latency Improvements (round trip time)

                                                                                                                        Beyond 4G               7
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
10x

    We also expect that base station
    density will increase by a factor of 10
    in areas with a large density of active
    users. Large numbers of femto cells
                                                                                                                                       50 Mio
    will be deployed to improve home
    and small office coverage and offload
    traffic from macro cells. Additionally,
    a large installed base of WiFi Access
    Points (>500 million) will carry traffic,
    mainly indoors.

    The impact of the three enhancement
    topics, improvements in spectral                                   5 Mio
    efficiency, additional spectrum and
    large number of small base stations,                            2010                                                                        2020
    will be to enable up to 1,000 times
    more capacity than today, as illustrated
    in Figure 9.
                                                          Figure 8. Increase in the number of base stations due to network densification

                          Spectrum (MHz)                                 Spectrum efficiency                              BTS density (/km2)
                                                                            (bps/Hz/cell)
           1200                                                10                                             120

           1000                                                                                               100
                                                                8
            800                                                                                                80
                                                                6
            600                                                                                                60
                                                                4
            400                                                                                                40

            200                                                 2                                              20

                0                                               0                                               0
                        2010             2020                            2010                2020                         2010             2020

                                10x                                                  10x                                             10x

                                                                                 1000x

    Figure 9. Technology capabilities allow 1000 times more data in 10 years’ time

                            34% CAPEX Savings 85,9m EUR                                                  46% OPEX Savings 186,7 Mio EUR
                                   (Over 6 years)                                                                (Over 6 years)
          120                                                                          200,0

          100                                                                          150,0

           80                                                                          100,0

                                                                                           50,0
8   Beyond60
           4G

           40                                                                               0,0
                                                                                                    )

                                                                                                                                 y
                                                                                                        e

                                                                                                                       e
                                                                                                                       e

                                                                                                                                                  al

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                                                                                                                                           a
                                                                                                                                           e
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2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
Beyond 4G:
   The technical cornerstones
Ubiquitous heterogeneous
                                                       Diverse radio access technologies                      delivery capabilities, services
networks                                               will need to be integrated, with any                   could be delivered intelligently to
Future networks will be deployed                       combination of LTE, HSPA+, Wi-Fi and                   take advantage of the operational
more densely than today’s networks.                    Beyond 4G radio access technologies.                   environment. Context sensitive
Due to economic constraints and site                   Last but not least, the allocated                      variables could be the existence
availability, networks will become                     spectrum will be more fragmented and                   of other access networks, the
significantly more heterogeneous                       may even be shared among CSPs                          availability of radio bandwidth, the
in terms of transmit power, antenna                    according to new license models.                       radio propagation environment and
configurations (number, height and                                                                            user mobility patterns. Furthermore,
pattern of antennas), supported                        In a future wireless network,                          the quality of connections could be set
frequency bands, transmission                          connectivity will also be designed                     according to available network and air
bandwidths and duplex arrangements.                    to take energy efficiency into                         interface resources.
Radio network nodes will vary from                     account. Networks will intelligently
stand-alone base stations to systems                   distribute radio resources to achieve
with different degrees of centralized                  the lowest energy consumption
processing, depending on the                           possible. Hence, instead of offering
availability of front-haul and backhaul.               a uniform radio access with varying

                                       Macro cell - Macro cell
                                                                                            Macro cell -              Macro cell -
                                                                                            Femtocelli                Femtocelli
                                                                                                                                             Indoors
                                                                             Macro cell -
 Macro cell -                                                                 Micro cell
 Femtocelli

                                                                                                                                              WiFi

                                                                                                   Macro cell -
                                                                                                    Pico cell

        Indoors

       Femto cell

                                                   Figure 10. Heterogeneous Networks with a myriad of multi-radio cell layers
                Coverage area of Macro cell

                Coverage area of Micro cell

                Coverage area of Pico cell

                                                                                                                                 Beyond 4G             9
2020: Beyond 4G Radio Evolution for the Gigabit Experience - White paper
Extreme automation by self-                 The air interface                           one of the focus areas for the Beyond
     organization and cognition                                                              4G air interface studies.
                                                 The air interface is the foundation
     The management of heterogeneous             of all wireless communication               SC-FDMA used in the LTE uplink
     networks needs to be fundamentally          infrastructures. The properties and         maximizes coverage by maintaining
     redesigned for simplicity and               interoperability of different air-          a low peak to average power ratio
     efficiency. This calls for coordinated      interfaces, physical layer, protocol        to support efficient power amplifiers
     dimensioning of quantitative                layer, retransmission, critically affect    in devices. However, there is room
     parameters, the ratio between large         the QoS, spectral efficiency, energy        for further coverage and/or power
     and small cells, form factors, multi-       efficiency, robustness and flexibility of   efficiency enhancements, for example
     vendor domains and backhaul options.        the entire radio system. The evolution      high UL bandwidths (100 MHz) and
     The exploitation of cloud technologies,     of the air interface will be driven by      carrier aggregation.
     virtualization, resource pooling and        small cell dominated architectures.
     increased degrees of coordination           Consequently, relevant aspects,             User plane latency is the measure of
     are key technologies to reduce the          such as propagation and interference        the end-to-end performance of many
     cost of transmission sites for antenna      conditions need to be developed             applications. The minimum round trip
     clusters.                                   carefully.                                  time (RTT) of LTE is around 10 ms
                                                                                             (Figure 7). It is generally accepted
     The dilemma in radio network                The LTE air interface is optimized for      that latency must decrease in line with
     management is the balance between           the wide area environment where the         the increase in data rates. Hence, an
     centralized and distributed control. In     transmit power difference between the       RTT of the order of 0.1 – 1 ms needs
     future, the increasing number of small      device and base station is relatively       to be considered as the initial target
     cells with fiber backhaul will drive the    large (up to 25 dB). Consequently,          for a Beyond 4G system. It is obvious
     need for locally centralized small cell     both the modulation scheme (SC-             that if the radio can provide very small
     clusters capable of global optimization.    FDMA vs. OFDMA) and the physical            latency (such as 0.1 ms), that is only
                                                 channel structure differ significantly      beneficial for content that is very close
     Future networks will be populated with      between the uplink (UL) and downlink        to the point of use.
     various kinds of devices with wireless      (DL). The UL has been designed to
     access. Some devices will need              maximize the link budget for control        It is difficult to make major
     high bandwidth (HDTV or 3D video            and data channels.                          improvements in latency without
     streaming/download), some will have                                                     impacting the air interface. The
     stringent latency requirements (VoIP        For example, given the similar uplink       components of latency, such as frame
     or gaming), while others will need a        and downlink transmit powers and            structure, control signal timing, and
     maximized robustness and reliability        limited coverage area required for          HARQ, form the key building blocks
     (e-Health, Car2x Communication).            indoor access points, maximizing            of the air interface. Therefore, major
     Moreover, a much greater variety            the similarities between UL and DL          improvements in U-plane latency
     of devices, M2M, notebooks and              is sensible. Similar multiple access        imply considerable changes in the
     smartphones will demand network             schemes could be used in both               air interface. For example, an RTT
     flexibility. A vital future technology is   directions, simplifying system design       requirement of 0.1 ms interprets to TTI
     Cognitive Radio Networks (CRN) -            and hardware implementation and             lengths down to 10-25 μs. This cannot
     the next evolution of Self-Organizing       providing better support for D2D            be achieved with the current LTE-
     Networks (SON). CRN will enable             communications. Thus, a similar air         Advanced OFDMA numerology, but
     flexible spectrum management,               interface in UL and DL would enable         requires a more versatile approach.
     device-to-device networking and             new use cases and gain mechanisms,
     wideband software-defined radio.            especially in the TDD mode, which is

10   Beyond 4G
The link performance in today’s mobile     The next generation wireless
broadband systems is often limited         device will support a vast number of
by interference from other elements        services with a powerful and complex
of the system. Relatively primitive        communications engine. Radios in
means to suppress such interference        devices already support cellular, WiFi,
at the receiver side have already been     GPS and Bluetooth. Additionally,
introduced in state-of-the-art wireless-   international roaming requires devices
communication systems (e.g. HSPA+          to support a variety of radios/bands
3i receiver). However, the increasing      because globally available frequency
level of computationally-intensive         bands are not consistent. As a result,
signal processing, even in hand-held       the RF complexity in the device will
terminals, opens up the possibility        increase drastically, requiring radios to
of more advanced methods of                support multiple bands and duplexing
interference suppression/elimination.      methods (FDD & TDD).

An even more disruptive, but very          In future, the radios in the device
challenging, technology step would         will perform local radio resource
be to extend current multi-antenna         management and assist with network
schemes, typically comprising just a       resource management. Device
few antenna ports at each node, to         support for carrier aggregation and
massive multi-antenna configurations.      heterogeneous networks could enable
In an extreme case, this could             simultaneous communication over
consist of a myriad of cooperating         multiple radio access technologies.
antenna ports (for example in a            The wireless device may also be a
much more distributed manner also          gateway for a multitude of sensors and
known as “immersed radio”). Inter-         machine type devices. It will perform
cell interference cancellation and         spectrum sensing for capturing and
coordination can increase average          analyzing the radio environment.
data rates, but even better, these
solutions can improve cell edge            The optimization of device power
data rates.                                consumption is important in current
                                           devices and will remain a key factor in
Requirements for devices                   the future. Battery capacity improves
                                           very slowly compared to the evolution
In the smartphones and super-phones        of other technologies.
of today, radio is only a small part
of device capability. Enhanced user
experience is central and CSPs
advertise innovative plans for the
services and applications that a phone
can support. In essence, the major
selling point in the new wireless device
is no longer radio, but undeniably,
ubiquitous radio access remains the
essential backbone for supporting new
applications and services.

                                                                                       Beyond 4G   11
Product component                                          The future of mobile communications              limited bandwidth to a large number
     technologies                                               will include a vast variety of                   of customers.
                                                                communication nodes with various
     For cost and practical reasons, base                       sets of requirements and priorities.             •	The technologies need to enable
     stations will become significantly                         Some will need to be designed                       higher average data rates in the
     smaller. To date, this goal has been                       primarily for quality of experience,                Uplink and Downlink with more
     pursued by improving existing                              some will bring the highest energy                  bandwidth and more antennas.
     technologies, but at some point                            efficiency, while others may focus               •	We also need higher efficiency
     the frontiers will be reached and a                        on robustness and security. This                    to deliver more Gbps in a limited
     technology leap will be necessary                          variety calls for major improvements                amount of spectrum.
     here as well. Outsourcing tedious                          in flexibility, both for the network and         •	In dense areas, more capacity
     computations to the network cloud                          the architectural design of the nodes.              per square kilometer will need to
     is already a new and promising                             The main cornerstones for the radio                 be provided by increasing the
     shift, but power amplifiers and other                      evolution are listed in Figure 11.                  density of small base stations and
     components will also have to                                                                                   inherent offloading.
     be revisited with respect to their                         This section has illustrated the
     cost and wideband capabilities.                            technical enablers that will boost the
     Further integration with antenna                           practical user experience from a
     equipment, already starting today                          few Mbps to several Gbps. The
     with the first Active Antenna Systems,                     ultimate target is to offer consistently
     is a good example.                                         higher useable data rates within a

                                      Past (2010)                                       Future (2020)

                                                                                                   Wide scale small cell
                                                       Large macro cells
                                                                                              (heterogeneous) deployments

                                                                                            Fiber availability and new wireless
                                                Limited backhaul capacity
                                                                                                backhaul solutions applied

                                                                                              Fast interference coordination
                                           Inter-cell interference limits capacity
                                                                                                     and cancellation

                                               Small cell configuration and                  Cognitive Radio Networks (CRN)
                                                optimization is complex

                                             Stationary network configuration                Self Organizing Networks (SON)
                                                      and spectrum

                                                                                                Multi-branch and multi-site
                                                  Two branch antennas
                                                                                                 antenna transmission

     Figure 11. Main cornerstones for the long term radio evolution

         Today                                                                          Future (2020)

                      Large macro cells                         100 BTS / km2

                                                                5 Gbps / BTS
                  Limited backhaul capacity
                                                                                                  backhaul solutions

                                                                                              Fast interference coordination        Capacity >50% x
             Inter-cell interference limits capacity       Capacity 25% x peak rate
                                                                                                     and cancellation                  peak rate

                  Network configuration and                 >1000 EUR/BTS / year                Self Organizing Networks
Techno-Economical aspects
In future, CSPs are likely to increase
infrastructure sharing. Virtualization                                                    200 MHz
will be a key technology in achieving
this and already the concepts and
                                                                                          100 MHz
basic building blocks have been
tested. By the end of the decade,
new business relationships, enabled                                                       20 MHz
                                                  RF bandwidth increases
by network resource virtualization
and sharing, will introduce new
opportunities and possibly new players
into the value chain.                                Macro                   Micro                   Pico/         Fingertip
                                                                                                    Femto
Total Cost of Ownership
Mobile CSP revenue is expected to
grow only moderately during the next
10 years. If CSPs need to be able to              Base station form factor gets smaller
support 1,000 times more traffic with
current cost structures, the cost per     Figure 12. Evolution trends for base stations
bit must be pushed down by a factor
of 1,000.

One way to achieve lower cost is to       The Techno-Economic balance
provide more capacity with small base     between traffic growth and flat
stations and cells. To provide high       revenue is achieved by higher
capacity, RF equipment must support       radio efficiency with smaller base
large bandwidth and great frequency       stations. However, it is not enough
agility. The lower cost will be enabled   to have lower base station cost, we
by new base station power and form        also need to push down operational
factors that allow much smaller base      costs with low cost transport, low
station products. These key factors are   cost configuration and low cost
illustrated in Figure 12.                 optimization.

                                                1000x capacity gain:
                     Up to 1000x                 10x more BTS
                    Traffic growth               10x spectral efficiency
                                                 10x spectrum

                                                1000x cost reduction:
                                                 10x BTS bandwidth
                      Flat TCO
                                                 10x spectral efficiency
                                                 10x smaller BTS

           Flattish Revenue Growth

Figure 13. Techno-Economic balance

                                                                                                             Beyond 4G         13
Worldwide collaboration
        on standardization
     It is likely that ITU-R will look into   The 3GPP success stories of HSPA
     possible requirements for Beyond         and LTE show that worldwide
     4G systems, as well as preparing for     collaborative specification work among
     WRC2016 to identify new spectrum for     partners is the only way to achieve
     wireless communication.                  large economies of scale, therefore we
                                              expect that this community will play its
     Collaborative research projects,         role when the real specification work
     for example within the Framework         for Beyond 4G begins. We should not
     Programs (e.g. FP7 and 8) of the         forget that existing 4G technologies
     European Union, will play an important   will further evolve by adding new
     role to share the Beyond 4G research     capabilities from ongoing research and
     workload among the main players          specification work.
     in industry, academia and CSPs and
     lay the groundwork for subsequent
     standardization.

     Nokia Siemens Networks
        research leads the way
     Consolidated efforts are necessary       the 3GPP LTE standard, numerous
     from all players in academia and         publications and books, collaboration
     industry to develop innovative           in international research projects
     technologies and deployment options      (WINNER+, SOCRATES, MEVICO
     that meet the demands of mobile          and ARTIST4G), strategic cooperation
     broadband wireless in 2020. As           with key universities, joint research
     well as the focus on evolutionary        work with leading CSPs, Smartlab
     enhancements, the mid-term and           activities with all leading smartphone
     long-term research must also identify    vendors, and research teams in
     possible technology leaps.               multiple continents. Nokia Siemens
                                              Networks emphasizes the importance
     Nokia Siemens Networks conducts          of open standards and sharing
     leading research activities in radio,    research results in white papers,
     with thousands of contributions to       publications and books.

14   Beyond 4G
Conclusion
                          Delivering the Gigabit
                          Experience
                          Radio access technologies need
                          significant advancements to meet                                                          Traffic Growth
                          the capacity and cost requirements                                                         Up to 1000x
                          predicted for 2020. We need to
                          prepare to support a thousand-fold
                          traffic increase from today with                                                                                   Antennas
                          constant cost structure.                                                                                            All active
                                                                                         Revenues & TCO
                            1000x capacity gain:                                                                                            beamforming
1000x                                                                                        Flattish
                            - 10x more BTS                                                                                                  massive MIMO
growth                    The  technology
                            - 10x               mix to address this
                                  spectral efficiency
                          challenge   will be a combination of a
                            - 10x spectrum
                          large number of small base stations,                                                        2020
                          extensive use of advanced antenna                              Unified Network                                   Cooperation &
                             1000x cost reduction:                                      Extreme Automation                                  Coordination
                          technologies,      self-organizing networks                   Scattered Spectrum                                   Interference
                             - 10x BTS bandwidth
TCO                       enhanced      with   cognitive radio network,
                             - 10x spectral efficiency                                   Smart Offloading                                     Spectrum
                          wideband     radios
                             - 10x smaller BTS and wide use
                                                                                          Myriad of Cells                                  Antenna clusters
                          of available fiber optics networks
                          for the backhaul and front-haul.
         Flattish Revenue Growth                                                                               Access Architecture
                          Nokia Siemens Networks is at                                                       Distributed and Centralized
                          the forefront in developing and
                          driving the most economical and
                          powerful technologies and solutions
                          together with the industry and
                          research partners.
                                                                          Figure 14. 2020 Challenges and Enablers

                          Abbreviations
                          3GPP	Third Generation Partnership Project                                M2M      Machine-to-machine
                          BTS 	Base Transceiver Station                                            MIMO 	Multiple-Input, Multiple-Output
                          CoMP	Co-ordinated Multipoint Processing                                  OFDMA 	Orthogonal Frequency Division
                          CP              Cyclic Prefix                                                      Multiple Access
                          DL              Downlink                                                  QoS      Quality of Service
                          FDD	Frequency Division Duplex                                            RF       Radio Frequency
                          GPS	Global Positioning System                                            RTT      Round Trip Time
                          HARQ 	Hybrid Automatic Repeat ReQuest                                    SC-FDMA	Single Carrier Frequency Division
                          HSDPA 	High Speed Downlink Packet Access                                          Multiple Access
                          HSPA 	High Speed Packet Access                                           SON 	Self-Organizing Networks
                          ITU-R 	International Telecommunication Union –                           TDD      Time Division Duplex
                                          Radio communication sector                                UE       User Equipment
                          IMT- Advanced 	International Mobile                                      UL       Uplink
                                          Telecommunications - Advanced                             UMTS 	Universal Mobile Telecommunications
                          KPI 	Key Performance Indicator                                                    System
                          LTE             Long Term Evolution                                       WRC 	World radio Conference

                                                                                                                                              Beyond 4G       15
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