AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023

Page created by Kevin Robinson
 
CONTINUE READING
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Foot
 Traffic
AHEAD
Ranking Walkable Urbanism
 in America’s Largest Metros
                       2023
                                 By:
         Michael A. Rodriguez, AICP
          Christopher B. Leinberger

             Smart Growth America
               Places Platform, LLC

                 Research Partners:
                  Rocktop Partners
                       Yardi Matrix
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Smart Growth America empowers communities through technical assistance, advocacy, and thought
leadership to create livable places, healthy people, and shared prosperity. We work with elected
officials at all levels, real estate developers, chambers of commerce, transportation and urban
planning professionals, and residents to improve everyday life for people across the country through
better development.

Places Platform, LLC is an information services company that provides a unified view of both
commercial and residential real estate. Our proprietary suite of analytics provides a contextualized
understanding of value, risk, and volatility in local real estate markets. Places Platform tells you what
“location, location, location” is actually worth.

Michael Rodriguez, AICP, is visiting research director at Smart Growth America and a doctoral
dissertator in urban policy at the George Washington University.

Christopher B. Leinberger is co-founder and managing director of Places Platform, LLC, original author
of the Foot Traffic Ahead series, Emeritus Professor, author, real estate developer and former co-
owner/President of RCLCo.

Special thanks to contributions by:

Jeff Adler                                 Jeri Mintzer
Katharine Burgess                          Iman Mekonen
Becca Buthe                                Mark “Puck” Mykleby
Anaeto Chinemere                           Toccarra Nicole Thomas, AICP
Eric Cova                                  Megan Wright                                                                       COPYRIGHT © 2023 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
                                                                                                                              SMART GROWTH AMERICA & PLACES PLATFORM, LLC
Calvin Gladney                             Christopher Zimmerman
Jordan Howard                              Jamie Zouras
Tara Jeffcoat

Report under the direction of Christopher B. Leinberger.

The recommendations reflect the policy positions of Smart Growth America.

Graphic Design by:
Kristen Jeffers
(www.kristenejeffers.com)
                                                                                         Publication Date: January 2023

                                                                                                 Smart Growth America
                                                                                             1152 15th St NW, Suite 450
                                                                                                Washington, DC 20005

Suggested Citation: Rodriguez, M.A. and C.B. Leinberger (2023). Foot Traffic Ahead: Ranking America’s Largest Metros, 2023.
(Report). Washington: Smart Growth America and Places Platform, LLC. http://smartgrowthamerica.org/foot-traffic-ahead
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Foot
  Traffic
 AHEAD
Table Of Contents
Introduction
and Methodology
     Introduction				 2
     Methodology				12

Metropolitan Rankings			15
Social Equity					27
Case Studies					33
Future Momentum				39
Correlations					57
Conclusions					62
Appendix					68
Endnotes						72

                     Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
INTRODUCTION                                                     Introduction
        AND    In spite of the changes to urban
               areas brought on by the Covid-19
               pandemic, the 2023 edition of Foot
               Traffic Ahead’s research findings
                                                       Mixed-use, connected communities
                                                       are not solely instruments for
                                                       development and real estate
                                                       interests; they offer many benefits
                                                                                                             Policy interventions are needed to
                                                                                                             both protect existing affordability
                                                                                                             and promote affordability for new
                                                                                                             construction given the outsized

METHODOLOGY
               demonstrate continued real estate       to regions, cities, and the residents                 market demand for walkable
               market and consumer preference          who enjoy living in and accessing                     urbanism. Policymakers are
               for walkable urbanism through           these places. When designed to                        increasingly keen on many tactics
               premiums in commercial rents,           reflect the needs and experience of                   to address these issues, including
               multifamily rental rates, and for-      the community they serve, walkable                    supporting missing middle housing,
               sale home prices, compared to           places create an identity and sense                   zoning reform, form-based codes,
               drivable alternatives. To illustrate    of place for a community, they can                    and other policy remedies that
               these preferences, Foot Traffic         also positively impact public health,                 directly focus on affordability.
               Ahead 2023 benchmarks the range         climate resilience, safety, and,
               of walkability in the 35 largest        importantly, social justice and racial                The lack of walkable places
               metropolitan regions in the U.S. and    equity.                                               underscores the affordable housing
               shows that the market is continuing                                                           crisis and overall cost of living
               to seek more well-connected,            But these benefits are not a                          crisis that nearly every major
               walkable neighborhoods. This            given. One common consequence                         metropolitan area in the U.S. is
               report shows that the demand            of communities with walkable                          currently facing. Housing in the
               for walkable, well-connected real       urbanism is that they become                          very locations where it is most
               estate far exceeds supply; and this     unattainable as rising prices only                    needed—such as transit-served
               imbalance underscores the urgency       allow those who can afford high-                      and infill locations—remains
               of policy reform to deliver more        cost housing to access the benefits                   challenging to deliver on account
               mixed-use, mixed-income housing         of these spaces. For example, our                     of restrictive zoning, lending
               near transit, especially in the midst   research finds that amenity-rich                      policy, and pandemic-era supply
               of today’s housing access crisis.       walkable urbanism often comes                         chain and labor issues. Some
                                                       at a premium due to limited                           of these barriers to delivering
               At Smart Growth America (SGA),          supply—it comprises generally less                    housing originate from the legacy
               our work supports our vision of a       than 5% of a region’s land—and                        of exclusionary zoning and land
               country where no matter where           that poses challenges for housing                     use policies, which compound
               you live, or who you are, you           affordability and social equity.
               can enjoy living in a place that is                                         50
               healthy, prosperous, and resilient.         PRICE PREMIUMS FOR
                                                           WALKABLE URBANISM
               While places with smart growth              VS. DRIVABLE SUB-URBAN, 2021
               elements may each look different,                                           40

               we see many common ingredients
               including homes of many sizes                                               30

               and price points in an interplay
               with job locations, offices, retail                                         20
               establishments of all sizes, small
               businesses, parks, and civic spaces.
               All of these are brought together                                           10

               in an accessible, welcoming
               environment scaled for people to                                             0
                                                                                                    OFFICE        RETAIL        MULTIFAMILY   FOR-SALE

               easily get around.                                                                                                 RENTAL      HOUSING

                                                       Source: Smart Growth America; Yardi Matrix; REIS Moody’s; Rocktop Partners

                                                       •2						 Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                         Introduction

segregation and decrease wealth-
building opportunities and social          “Walkability” and Inclusive Language                                        This 2023 Foot Traffic Ahead report
                                                                                                                                                                   State of the Moment:
mobility for communities of color.
Unsurprisingly, this has caused            This report analyzes the demand for housing and commercial
                                                                                                                       is unique because it presents to            COVID-19 and Changing Markets
                                                                                                                       the public, local policymakers, and
many communities of color to               space in urban areas that can be traversed without a car—a
have unequal access to the level of
                                                                                                                       urban researchers a systematic,             As of production of this report, real estate markets are still in
                                           benefit we believe that everyone should be able to access.                  data-driven glimpse into walkability        flux as they react to the 2022 inflationary environment, rising
safe, affordable, and amenity-rich
housing that is available to other
                                           To explain our findings, we often use the terms “walkability”               at the metropolitan level, and              interest rates, and concerns around a possible recession. We
                                           and “walkable” to describe places that can be conveniently                  supporting metrics about how                recognize that data in this report covers U.S. Census data
communities.
                                           traveled by those using sidewalks, trails, and paths, whether               markets respond. Using the most             through 2020, and market data through 2021. Thus, many
Additionally, it is important to note      one is walking, using assistive devices like wheelchairs or                 current market and U.S. Census
                                                                                                                                                                   metrics are still “mid-pandemic” and we acknowledge that
the unique circumstances of the            walkers, pushing strollers, or using some other means to get                data (generally from 2020 to 2021),
                                                                                                                       we see that walkability continues
                                                                                                                                                                   markets like office, retail, and housing are still evolving to new
moment. With the onset of the              around without a car. Much of the data in this report utilizes
                                                                                                                       to be a vital urban form that not           conditions.
Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the
                                           information from the U.S. federal government which groups                   only improves quality of life, but
landscape of many neighborhoods
                                           people using assisted mobility devices in the same category                 improves the fiscal performance of
shifted dramatically. Many
neighborhoods transformed, in              as those that walk to travel, making it challenging to isolate              cities and of real estate assets.
                                           access and the impact on people with disabilities. We continue
                                                                                                                                                                 We hope this work, and
some cases temporarily, and in
                                           to look for data that would allow us to better analyze access               By surveying the inventory of             the recognition of market,
other cases more permanently.
Central business districts                 that includes people of all ages and abilities who choose to                office, retail, multifamily rental, and   regulatory, and cost barriers
                                                                                                                       for-sale housing space across the         to walkability, can ultimately
experienced significantly reduced          walk, bike, or use assistive devices like wheelchairs or walkers.
                                                                                                                       largest 35 metros, and advancing a
activity with pandemic-induced                                                                                                                                   lead to the continued uptake
                                                                                                                       systematic approach to measuring
telecommuting—creating high                                                                                                                                      of walkable urban places and
                                                                                                                       walkability at the census-block
vacancy in the downtown office and                                                                                                                               policy changes that foster the
                                                                                                                       group (CBG) level, we observe
retail markets that still endures.
Meanwhile, small businesses, local       This year’s Foot Traffic               are not mutually exclusive. There is   a set of rankings spanning from           delivery of more affordable,
                                                                                not an inherent tradeoff between       the New York region as our “most          accessible walkable places.
parks, and local amenities became        Ahead report is an especially          walkability and equitable access       walkable” region this year, down
critical hubs as many households         important one, as it analyzes          to walkable neighborhoods. We          to metro Las Vegas as the lowest.
limited travel and out-of-home
contact.                                 a critical point in the                found some cities with high cost of    When considering what we call
                                         midst of the pandemic in               living where well-connected transit    the “Future Momentum” of these
Not surprisingly, the pandemic                                                  systems connected a broad range of     regions, we see that all regions have
altered patterns in commercial
                                         2020 and 2021, with the                people to economic opportunities       great opportunities to enhance
real estate and housing, and it          timeline including the initial         in walkable areas; and we find         walkability through key policy
tempered, though did not undo,           recognition of Covid-19                smaller cities with diverse and        changes like allowing for more
many of the price premiums                                                      affordable walkable areas. When        mixed-use density all throughout
                                         by the World Health
enjoyed by walkable urban real                                                  we look at equity across our three     the region, connecting people and
estate. Every region still had a price
                                         Organization (WHO) and the             dimensions, many regions can be        economic activity via quality transit
premium for office and multifamily       subsequent Omicron wave.               quite affordable for the walkability   and pedestrian infrastructure, and
products, and most had a premium                                                they have. Ultimately, regions         focusing on local affordability at the
in for-sale housing despite some                                                should take strides to encourage       neighborhood level.
downward trends since 2019. In           We examine these and other             the development of more walkable
some ways the housing affordability      factors in the Social Equity section   areas. We also call attention to
crisis in walkable areas worsened        of this report, where we measure       the heightened challenges to
given that the pandemic-era              equity along affordability, transit,   affordability in areas with more
supply chain and labor challenges        and walkability access dimensions.     access to transit and proximity to
have further exacerbated housing         There, our findings uncover that       walkability.
                                         our Foot Traffic Ahead walkability
undersupply.
                                         rankings and Social Equity rankings

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						                                            3•                                                                                      • 4 						                                   Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                         Introduction

People Continue to Choose Walkable
Urban Places
While the dominant narrative           describing our regions’ economies,      include five more metropolitan           Across regions, these market          generally less than 5% of a region’s   physical spread of a region’s
during the Covid-19 pandemic           and we need more comprehensive          regions in our rankings. In this         indicators show that walkable         land nearby, housing can be            walkable places. Unfortunately,
has been about fears around            categories. Measures of both urban      report, Smart Growth America and         urban places continue to be where     unaffordable. Our Social Equity        regions have more demand for
urban density and flight from          form and economic function are          Places Platform, LLC have ranked         the knowledge economy—sectors         indicators discussed later in this     walkability than they do supply,
cities, we analyze data that           critical to move beyond the old         each metro area by percent of real       depending on information rather       report acknowledge this and the        and this scarcity makes the current
suggest regionally-significant         city versus suburb division. Thus,      estate inventory, square footage,        than goods production—prefers to      need for accessible and affordable     housing access crisis all the more
walkable urban places, referred        this edition of Foot Traffic Ahead      and walkable urban development           locate. The walkable urban places     development in walkable areas .        acute in well-connected, walkable
to as “WalkUPs,” and walkable          continues to use the urban form         status using data about three            have been resilient to the Covid-19                                          areas, underlining the need for
neighborhoods are economically         dichotomy of “walkable urban” and       product types (office, and rental        pandemic, though there was a          Our Future Momentum rankings           policy interventions to safeguard
resilient. Our research maps these     “drivable sub-urban.” Either of these   multi-family products; and for           “bump in the road” for some of        also look at the location in which     affordability.
places and assesses walkable and       urban forms of development can          the first time, for-sale housing).       them, particularly office-dominated   markets may be headed in the
drivable sub-urban places for the      occur in both a metro’s central city    Additionally, we now account for         downtowns.                            future, and we devote a specific
largest 35 metropolitan areas down     and in the suburbs, so the division     how geographically distributed a                                               section to the still-ongoing impacts
to the Census Block Group (CBG)        between central city versus suburbs     metro area’s walkable places are         When exploring our data we find       of the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall,
level.                                 has less meaning than most analysts     compared to its size, which can          price premiums for multifamily        we find that people still prefer
                                       ascribe.                                illustrate how easy/effortlessly         rental and for-sale housing for       walkable urbanism as reflected via
For decades, many have thought                                                 residents can access these places        walkable urbanism across many         market prices and leasing activity.
of the land in metropolitan areas      This year’s edition has added           and navigate daily life without a car.   metros; and we acknowledge            Furthermore we find benefits in
and areas outside it as divided        dimensions to our approach and                                                   that premiums often translate to      dense, walkable places existing
into central city and suburban.        methodology for the Foot Traffic        We also evaluate the economic and        increased housing costs, pushing      throughout a region rather than
However, emerging 21st century         Ahead series. We now use several        social performance of walkable           these places out of reach for         being concentrated in the region’s
development patterns suggest that      different data sources, revised         places as compared to the drivable       many. Because walkable urban          core; and we apply unique GIS-
this typology is less meaningful for   methodological approaches, and          sub-urban form of the metro area.        development is scarce, occupying      based measures to examine the

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						                                           5•                                                                                    • 6 						                                     Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Introduction

Form: Drivable Sub-Urban                                                                                                  Function: How Location Impacts Local
                                                                                   neighborhoods, small-lot single
                                                                                   family homes, townhomes and on
                                                                                   up to high-rise condos, apartment

vs. Walkable Urban                                                                 towers, and major mixed-use
                                                                                   development. Importantly, walkable
                                                                                   urban places are connected to
                                                                                                                          Economies
During the second half of the 20th      growth, this model has fueled the
                                                                                   the broader regional economy via       This report assesses and                Each metropolitan area in the                   social centers, and police and fire
century, the now-familiar drivable      demand for automobiles, drove
                                                                                   multiple transportation options        categorizes two types of locations      country has a suite of regionally               stations. Jobs here tend to include
sub-urban development dominated         road and highway construction,
                                                                                   supplementing automobile               and economic functions within           significant generators of economic              school teachers, public safety jobs,
real estate development. These          powered the oil and insurance
                                                                                   travel, such as bus, rail, bicycle,    larger metropolitan areas:              growth; in Seattle it is technology,            grocery store personnel, bank staff,
areas are automobile-dependent,         industries, and is the foundation
                                                                                   and walking. However, once one         regionally significant and local-       aerospace, and tourism; in Detroit              local-serving lawyers, and smaller
have low density (between 0.05          of a large part of our financial
                                                                                   has arrived in such a place, most      serving. Regionally significant         it is automobiles; in Washington,               medical practices.
to 0.5 floor area ratio or FAR)1,       system. At the same time, this
                                                                                   destinations are within walking        places are where the bulk of the        DC it is government, technology,
and segregated land uses where          development pattern created
                                                                                   distance (about a half mile).          wealth-creating economic growth         and tourism. Without these                      Locally serving jobs tend to
different product types (office,        significant levels of racial and class
                                                                                   The most successful walkable           of a metropolitan area is located.      regionally significant economic                 be dispersed throughout the
apartments, for-sale housing,           segregation, compounding lack of
                                                                                   places tend to feature elements        Regionally significant areas            functions, metropolitan areas                   metropolitan area and follow
industrial, etc.) are separated from    wealth-building opportunities and
                                                                                   of Complete Streets,3 such as          bring new revenues from outside         shrink in population and offer fewer            residential housing locations and
each other. Usually, these places are   inequalities that endure to this
                                                                                   narrower street widths, safer          the metro area, and are where           opportunities to residents. We find             local population growth. Many
connected by roads and highways         day.2 It also created significant fiscal
                                                                                   design, grade-separated bike           industries and organizations with       that in the largest 35 metropolitan             local serving jobs tend to pay
designed for medium- or high-speed      burdens on local jurisdictions’ tax
                                                                                   lanes, landscape treatments, and       “base” or “export” jobs locate.4 Jobs   areas, roughly one-third of all                 less than regionally significant
traffic for cars and trucks. By the     base, as Smart Growth America’s
                                                                                   multimodal transportation options.     in these industries produce goods       jobs are in regionally significant              jobs and can be highly dependent
1980s, only a few regions had other     fiscal impact models throughout the
                                                                                                                          or services that are sold to other      locations.                                      upon regionally significant jobs.
well-connected and predictable          country have illustrated.
                                                                                   Walkable urban places encompass        regions or abroad, responsible for                                                      Known as the “ripple effect,” as an
public transportation systems.
                                                                                   a range of densities from modest       the wealth of the region. The retail    In contrast, locally serving places             additional regionally significant job
                                        By the mid-1990s, starting with the
                                                                                   densities (floor area ratios or FARs   centers here tend to have a larger      are predominantly residential                   is added, one to three local-serving
We have come to know this               initial redevelopment of downtown
                                                                                   of 1.0-3.0) towards dense walkable     customer base throughout the            with complementary commercial                   jobs are created, and vice versa.6
driveable sub-urban development         and downtown adjacent walkable
                                                                                   places with FARs of 4.0 to 20, while   region and may often be tourist         development such as grocers,                    An example would be how one
as “sprawl,” and it has become a        urban places, supported by the
                                                                                   the highest walkable urban place is    destinations. Regionally significant    drug stores, small medical offices,             large corporate office building can
well-accepted part of metropolitan      New Urbanism and Smart Growth
                                                                                   Midtown Manhattan at 40 FAR.           places tend to concentrate one-of-      and bank branches. They also                    support jobs in local lunch eateries,
America and areas around the            movements, and further sparked
                                                                                                                          a-kind cultural, educational, and       have local pre-K-12 schools,                    caterers, and facilities maintenance
world. As mentioned above, the          by public policy initiatives, there
                                                                                   Form-based codes (a legally binding    sports assets, such as museums,         community-centered activity and                 services.
drivable sub-urban form can be          has been renewed market demand
                                                                                   land use regulation) are a way         stadiums, and research universities.
found in both our suburbs as well as    for walkable urbanism—a return
our center cities. For example, many    to the urban forms that were               to support the more efficient
                                                                                   development of a range of housing      Regionally significant jobs tend               RANGE OF HIGHEST DENSITIES FOUND IN WALKUPS
parts of San Francisco are quite        predominant prior to 20th century
                                                                                   typologies and product types           to concentrate geographically, a                                      40
sub-urban in nature, while relatively   drivable sub-urban expansion. As
                                                                                   to allow for flexible mixed-use        force known as “agglomeration,”5
high density can be found in many       previous editions of Foot Traffic
                                                                                   development by using physical          and results in the fact that most                                     35
communities in the New England          Ahead have shown, walkable urban
                                                                                                                          of a metropolitan area’s income

                                                                                                                                                                       FLOOR AREA RATIO (FAR)
towns surrounding Boston.               places are where much, though not          form—rather than separation of                                                                               30
                                                                                                                          is generated in its regionally
                                        all, of the knowledge economy has          uses—as the primary basis and
                                                                                                                          significant locations. Despite the                                    25
Most real estate developers and         chosen to locate and the emerging          focus for the code and standards.
                                                                                                                          recent rise of companies allowing
investors, government regulators,       “experience economy” seems to be           Walkable urban places tend to                                                                                20
                                                                                                                          their employees to work from
and financiers are familiar with the    following suit.                            have mixed-use product types           home in response to the Covid-19                                      15
drivable sub-urban model; it has                                                   combining office, rental and           pandemic, this has so far caused
remained a successful development       Walkable urban places have                 condominium apartments, and            relatively minor impacts.                                             10
formula, a tradable commodity, and      substantially higher densities             hotels with retail on the ground
macroeconomic driver of economic        than drivable sub-urban places,            floor.                                                                                                        5
growth. In addition to real estate      ranging from pre-auto traditional
                                                                                                                                                                                                 0
                                                                                                                                                                                                     AUSTIN   SAN FRANCISCO     NEW YORK CITY

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						                                              7•                                                                                     • 8						 Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Introduction                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Introduction

Form/Function Matrix                                                                                                                   Findings of Foot Traffic Ahead 2023
Combining the two metropolitan           richer view of our metro areas that           Drivable sub-urban land use                     Our findings underscore a               rental and for-sale price premiums   Plus, walkable urbanism can
forms (drivable sub-urban and            accounts for places ranging from              comprises the vast majority of                  continued trend whereby walkable        and market share gains, indicating   improve quality of life and economic
walkable urban) and the two              core downtowns to neighborhoods               a metropolitan region’s land,                   urbanism has become the dominant        continued pent-up demand for         opportunity for low-income
economic functions (regionally           that have plenty of amenities but do          including housing subdivisions,                 factor in current and future real       walkable urbanism into the future.   households, with high opportunity
significant and local serving) results   not serve a large, regional function.         rural land, and drivable sub-urban              estate development across major                                              jobs, civic, and recreational facilities
in a simple four-cell matrix of                                                        office complexes.                               U.S. metros. This is in spite of some                                        in close proximity to home without
metropolitan land use. The Form/
                                         We see that walkable
                                                                                                                                       setbacks caused by the Covid-19         Walkable urbanism                    requiring the expense and hassle of
Function Matrix, shown below,                                                                                                          pandemic, which we explain in our                                            car ownership.
defines all of the land use options      urbanism is confined                                                                          Pandemic Impact section.                will provide as fruitful
available for a metropolitan area,                                                                                                                                                                                  However, walkable development
broken down into four “types”            to a very small amount                                                                        The walkable urban trend is not
                                                                                                                                                                               an economic base                     can only be built with appropriate
numbered I to IV.7                       of space ranging from                                                                         confined to coastal metros, those       for the 21st century                 infrastructure, zoning, and financing
                                                                                                                                       with large pre-1940 inventory                                                mechanisms at the federal, state,
New to the Foot Traffic Ahead            less than 5% of a                                                                             of walkable urban product, or           economy as drivable                  and local levels, increased skills
series, this report now adds             metropolitan region’s                                                                         knowledge economy superstar
                                                                                                                                                                               sub-urbanism did for                 and experience by the real estate
measurement of Type II (walkable                                                                                                       metros. Walkable urbanism exists                                             development community as well
neighborhoods) in addition to Type       land mass, or only 1.2%                                                                       in every state, across all regions,     the late 20th century                as continued community outreach
I (WalkUPs) that were the focus of       on average for the largest                                                                    and while we focus on the 35                                                 and support for walkable urban
previous editions. This gives us a                                                                                                     largest metropolitan areas, it          and will be far more                 development.
                                         35 metropolitan areas.                                                                        exists in smaller towns across rural
                                                                                                                                       America as well. No one industry
                                                                                                                                                                               environmentally
                                                                                                                                       defines these metropolitan areas,       resilient by enabling
                                                                                                                                       though they tend to be hubs for the
                                                                                                                                       growing knowledge economy.              lifestyles that use
                                                                   REGIONALLY SIGNIFICANT               LOCAL SERVING                                                          far fewer carbon
                                                                                                                                       The trends in this report can
                                                                            TYPE I
                                                                           WALKUPS
                                                                                                            TYPE II
                                                                                                          WALKABLE
                                                                                                                                       be dramatic as shown by both            emissions via less
                                                                                                                                       significant rental price premiums of
                                                                       (Walkable Urban Places)          NEIGHBORHOOD
                                                                                                                                       walkable urban over drivable sub-
                                                                                                                                                                               per-capita household
                                                                   Metro Land Area:                Metro Land Area:                    urban product as well as substantial    energy use and
                                                                   Top 35 avg. 0.2%                Top 35 avg. 1.0%                    walkable urban market share
                                                                   Range of metro area:            Range of metro area:                gains at the expense of drivable        emissions from
                                                      WALKABLE
                                                        URBAN
                                                                   0.1% - 0.5%                     0.1% - 6.2%                         sub-urban product. WalkUPs and
                                                                                                                                       walkable neighborhoods both have
                                                                                                                                                                               driving.8
                                                                           TYPE III                          TYPE IV
                                                                          DRIVE-INS                         DRIVABLE
                                                                                                           SUB-URBAN

                                                                   Metro Land Area:                Metro Land Area:
                                                                   Top 35 avg. 5.2%                Top 35 avg 93.7%
                                                                   Range of metro area:            Range of metro area:
                                                        DRIVABLE
                                                      SUB-URBAN
                                                                   1.9% - 23.3%                    75.6% - 97.9%

                                                                                 Source: Smart Growth America; Places Platform LLC
                                                              Places Platform refers to the Form/Function Matrix as the Places Lens™

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						                                                9•                                                                                                • 10 						                                   Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Methodology
Introduction

  Walkability
                                         desires of residents, form-based       •   A glossary to ensure the
                                         codes have emerged as a regu-              precise use of technical terms
                                         latory framework to guide such         •   Other elements such as

  and Form-                              growth. While not a one-size-fits-
                                         all approach, form-based codes
                                         are helping diverse communities
                                                                                    architectural, landscaping,
                                                                                    signage, and environmental
                                                                                    standards can also be included
                                                                                                                              Foot Traffic Ahead uniquely brings together data on the built environment, community demographics, and market
                                                                                                                        characteristics using a range of sources. We use government and private sector data sources through year-end 2020 and
                                                                                                                                                                                      2021, as available due to differing data release windows.
  Based Codes                            unlock a vision for vibrant, hu-
                                         man-scaled environments; how-          Form-based codes often result
 This report shows that people
                                         ever, barriers such as political
                                         fear stand in the way of adopting
                                                                                in an increase in property values,
                                                                                because the kinds of places
                                                                                                                       Data Sources
 want to live in vibrant, mixed-use      form-based codes, hindering the        they create are both in demand
 communities that provide a vari-        creation of great people-oriented      and scarce, as illustrated by the      Research Partners                       American Enterprise Institute            Walkability and transit data from:
 ety of mobility options as well as a    places.                                findings of Foot Traffic Ahead. In                                             Housing Center, Walkable Oriented        U.S. EPA Smart Location Database
 variety of housing types. However,                                             some cases, form-based codes           Form-Function typology method           Development Database (2022)              (2021)
 these types of places are in very       A form-based code uses physical        can add to the toolbox to retain       and data provided by: Places
 short supply due to the zoning          form—rather than the separation        existing residents and businesses      Platform, LLC, PlacesLens™ (2021)       Commercial Data                          Census Block Groups (CBG)
 decisions of communities. In most       of uses—as the organizing princi-      by leading to the development of                                                                                        from: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER
 parts of the U.S., new develop-         ple. To be a true form-based code,     a wider variety of housing types       Office, multifamily, and industrial     Retail inventory, rent, vacancy, and     Shapefiles (2020)
 ment is limited to low-density          the following elements must be         including apartments and missing       inventory, rent, vacancy, and           absorption data provided by: REIS
 single-family homes: in fact, it “​is   included:10                            middle units, as determined by         absorption data provided by Yardi       Moody’s (2017 to year-end 2021).         Employment data from: U.S. Census
 illegal on 75 percent of the resi-                                             SGA’s research project, Zoned In.11    Matrix (2017 to year-end 2021).                                                  Bureau LODES (through year-end
 dential land in many U.S. cities to     •   A regulating plan (or map)                                                                                        Government Data:                         2019)
 build anything other than a de-             that designates the locations      Foot Traffic Ahead finds that there    For-sale housing price data and
 tached single-family home.”9 This           where different building form      is both significant demand and         research provided by Rocktop            Population, housing tenure, race,        Gross domestic product (GDP)
 phenomenon has been codified                standards apply                    limited supply of walkable, mixed-     Partners, LLC (2018 to year-end         educational attainment, housing          for metropolitan areas from: U.S.
 through “Euclidean zoning,” named       •   Public standards that outline      use environments across the U.S.       2021).                                  units, and housing burden from:          Bureau of Economic Analysis,
 after the 1926 U.S. Supreme Court           specific elements in the public    Form-based codes are an import-                                                U.S. Census Bureau, American             (2020) and Places Platform, LLC
 case, which is the most common              realm, such as sidewalks,          ant tool that can lead to the devel-   Destination points of interest data     Community Survey 5-year                  (for CBG imputation).
 type of land use regulation in the          travel lanes, on-street parking,   opment of more well-connected,         provided by:                            estimates (through 2020).
 U.S. and separates development              street trees, and furniture        vibrant environments and retain

                                                                                                                       Data Limitations
 by uses such as residential, com-       •   Building standards controlling     affordability by encouraging the
 mercial, and institutional.                 the features configurations,       development of a wider range of
                                             facade design and functions of     housing types.
 As communities across the                   buildings                                                                 It should be noted that the Foot Traffic Ahead series, including this 2023 report, does not account for a metro
 country seek to manage growth           •   A clearly defined and                                                     area’s owner-user commercial space. Owner-user space is real estate that is owned and occupied by a business,
 in a sustainable, equitable way,            streamlined application and                                               government institution, or nonprofit organization. Many organizations own and occupy their own real estate,
 and accommodate the changing                project review process                                                    such as the federal, state, and local governments, universities, medical centers, and large corporate offices and
                                                                                                                       factories. Thus, these spaces do not appear in a commercial real estate data set that is based on leasing activity.
                                                                                                                       We estimate that possibly 30% to 40% of the U.S. commercial real estate market is of this type, though no one
                                                                                                                       knows for certain since there is no national database of owner-user space.

                                                                                                                       Secondly, the Moody’s retail data was limited by lack of retail data for the New York and Virginia Beach metros.
                                                                                                                       We have retail rental data for 33 of the 35 metros which are used in this report for rent premiums. We impute
                                                                                                                       New York and Virginia Beach retail inventory based on relationships with retail employment.

                                                                                                                       Finally, while we had data for inventory and absorption going back to 2017, rent price data was only available
                                                                                                                       starting in 2018. Our for-sale housing dataset also starts in 2018.

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						 11 •                                                                                                                             • 12						 Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
AHEAD Foot Traffic Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America's Largest Metros 2023
Methodology                                                                                                                                                                                                             Methodology
STEP 1:                                 STEP 2:                                   STEP 3:                                 STEP 4:                                STEP 5:
Defining                                Defining                                  Defining                                Vetting                                Ranking The Metros
Regions                                 Regional                                  Walkability                             Definitions
And Geography                           Significance                              We use two data sources to define
                                                                                                                                                                 The walkable urbanism rankings in        The Foot Traffic Ahead Index
                                                                                                                          We recognize that no one               the 35 largest metros are based on       represents the share of our product
                                                                                  walkability. First, we use the EPA
                                                                                                                          methodology or data-oriented           the share of combined office, retail,    types in walkable urbanism,
Our study looks at the 35 largest       We use several data points at the         Smart Location Database 2021
                                                                                                                          approach can be a perfect view of      multifamily, and for-sale housing        weighted to reflect the product
metropolitan statistical areas          CBG level in order to define what         National Walkability Index (NWI),14
                                                                                                                          what people perceive as walkability    that is located in walkable urbanism     mix that is in walkable urbanism.
(MSAs) based on population per          we mean by regional significance.         which is based primarily on inter-
                                                                                                                          or regional significance. For this     (either Type I or Type II). For these    This mix weighs commercial space
the 2020 U.S. Census American           There were several “tests” whereby        section density, transit proximity,
                                                                                                                          report, the SGA and Places Platform    product types, we report each            (office, multifamily rental, and
Community Survey (5-year). For          a CBG could qualify as regionally         and land use mix. Secondly, we use
                                                                                                                          team convened a group of regional      individual share and a combined          retail) more than for-sale housing,
the purposes of this report, we have    significant. A CBG would be defined       AEI Walkable Oriented Develop-
                                                                                                                          experts to provide “ground truth” to   share.                                   as compared to the region as a
made two important adjustments          as such if it meets any one or more       ment (WOD) data,15 which defines
                                                                                                                          the data in each of the MSAs. Based                                             whole. These weights were selected
based on the manner in which real       of these three tests:                     path-based half-mile buffers around
                                                                                                                          on this process, we adjusted the       To develop our Foot Traffic Ahead        because they more accurately
estate markets interact. For the                                                  important points of interest. We
                                                                                                                          regional significance or walkability   Index (FTA Index, or Current             reflect the form and function of
Los Angeles-Long Beach MSA,             Test 1 - Major Points of Interest: CBG    developed a separate “WOD Index”
                                                                                                                          definition for about 9% of the CBGs    Index) for our final rankings, we        walkable urbanism.
we have appended the Riverside-         contains a significant part of a U.S.     based on this data, which is the
                                                                                                                          out of 110,989 in the data set. This   weigh each share by the region’s
San Bernardino MSA and refer            military installation;13 or a large- or   share of a CBG that is considered a
                                                                                                                          finalized our typology definitions.    product mix in Type I and Type II        For informational purposes, we also
to it as “Los Angeles.” For the San     medium-sized airport; or a higher-        WOD weighted by the number of
                                                                                                                                                                 respectively, and for a combined         provide breakouts by Type I and
Francisco-Oakland MSA, we have          education institution with at least       points of interest present. Again, we
                                                                                                                                                                 Type I plus Type II. The combined        Type II rankings in the Appendix.
appended the San Jose-Sunnyvale-        1,000 students.                           have three tests, and a CBG could
                                                                                                                                                                 walkable urbanism shares are the
Santa Clara MSA and refer to it                                                   be defined as walkable if it met any
                                                                                                                                                                 basis of our Foot Traffic Ahead Index.
as “San Francisco.” For analysis        Test 2 - Jobs and Economics:              one or more of these three tests.
                                                                                                                                                                 We translate this index to be a
purposes, we use the most recent        CBG Is in the metro area’s top 2.5%                                                                                      range from 0 to 100 with a mean
2020 U.S. Census Block Group            in terms of job density; or GDP           Test 1 - EPA NWI: CBG is in the top
                                                                                                                                                                 of 50, and use this index for our
(CBG) definitions as the core unit of   share; or net inflow of regional          15% of its metro’s CBGs by NWI.
                                                                                                                                                                 rankings.16
analysis.12                             employees based on commute
                                        patterns.                                 Test 2 - WOD Index: CBG is in the
                                                                                  top 15% of its metro’s CBGs by
                                        Test 3 - Real Estate: CBG has at least    WOD Index; and has an intersection
                                        1.2 mil. sq. ft. of office space; or      density above the national median.
                                        340,000 sq. ft. of retail space.
                                                                                  Test 3 - CBG is in the top 5% of its
                                                                                  metros’s CBGs by WOD and has a
                                                                                  NWI that the EPA considers “walk-
                                                                                  able” (equal to 10.51, which EPA
                                                                                  states is above average).

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						 13 •                                                                                                                               • 14 						                                      Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
Metropolitan Rankings

                This study identifies walkable urban areas in the 35 largest U.S. metropolitan regions—and ranks the regions according to
                                                                                                        their current walkable urbanism.

               Small Size, Big Benefits
               The 35 largest metropolitan areas                 well as number of residents, jobs,                     using SGA’s “fiscal impact tool” and
               in the U.S. have a population of                  etc. far outperforms this small                        a collaboration with the U.S. EPA
               165 million people, or about half                 percentage.                                            on a forthcoming Fiscal Impact
               of the U.S. population. While these                                                                      Estimator tool, indicate that
               35 metro areas make up a small                    When we add up our estimates of                        downtowns and walkable areas
               percentage of land area (just 5.8%),              GDP produced in each CBG, we                           are places that generate much of
               they accounted for 55% of U.S. real               find that walkable urbanism in                         the economic base and serve to
               GDP in 2020. While 2020 was a                     the largest 35 metros accounts                         subsidize local serving, low-density
               unique year for the economy due                   for 19.1% of all U.S. real GDP in                      areas such as Type IV drivable sub-
               to the Covid-19 pandemic, these                   comparison to only being a tiny                        divisions.
               shares are consistent with previous               fraction of U.S. land, or 1.2%,17 and
               Foot Traffic Ahead editions.                      contain 6.8% of the U.S. residential                   Walkable urbanism is where mixed-
                                                                 population. Walkable urbanism                          use, higher-density development
               Overall, Type I (WalkUPs) are                     plays a critical role in each metro                    is found, whether in downtowns,
               about 0.2% of all the land in the                 region and for the nation as a whole.                  suburban town centers, innovation
               largest 35 metros, while Type II                                                                         districts, or high-amenity
               (walkable neighborhoods) are                      Because walkable urbanism is                           neighborhoods. These places have
               about 0.9%. Collectively, walkable                where a large share of GDP is                          a high concentration of economic
               urbanism accounts for about 1.2%                  produced, it also naturally accounts                   activity and jobs, as well as rental
               of the land within the largest 35                 for an outsized portion of a region’s                  and for-sale housing premiums, as
               metropolitan areas. Their range                   tax revenues from both land values                     compared to drivable sub-urban
               is widely different across metros,                and other taxes like sales taxes,                      locations.
               with walkable urbanism collectively               restaurant food and beverage
               accounting for between 0.1% to                    sales, and hotel occupancy taxes.
               6.5% of regional land area among                  Previous SGA research with many
               them. Their economic activity as                  cities and towns across the U.S.,

                 U.S. LAND                                       U.S.                                                          U.S.
                                               TOP 35 METROS                                 TOP 35 METROS                                                TOP 35 METROS
                 AREA                                            POPULATION                                                    GDP
                                        6.2%

METROPOLITAN                    93.8%                                      50.2%
                                                                                           49.8%
                                                                                                Top 35 Metros
                                                                                                                               44.7%               55.3%

    RANKINGS     REST OF U.S.
                                    Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                   REST OF U.S.
                                                                                   Source: U.S. Census Bureau
                                                                                                                REST OF U.S.

                                                                                                                                      Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

                                                                 • 16 						                                                      Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
Metropolitan Rankings                                                                                                                                                                              Metropolitan Rankings

Foot Traffic Ahead 2023 Rankings                                                                                         REGION                 RANK   OFFICE
                                                                                                                                                       SHARE
                                                                                                                                                                MULTIFAMILY
                                                                                                                                                                RENTAL SHARE
                                                                                                                                                                               RETAIL
                                                                                                                                                                               SHARE
                                                                                                                                                                                        FOR SALE
                                                                                                                                                                                        SHARE
                                                                                                                                                                                                   COMBINED
                                                                                                                                                                                                   SHARE
                                                                                                                                                                                                              FOOT TRAFFIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                              AHEAD INDEX

About 16% of all office, multifamily     tends to concentrate in walkable        opposition has not allowed the          New York               1      73.2%    70.3%          59.1%    17.9%      35.1%      100
rental housing, retail, and for-         urban places in the most highly         market to produce walkable urban        Boston                 2      47.3%    44.4%          11.2%    24.6%      27%        74.3
sale housing across these 35             ranked walkable urban metro areas.      product without years of legal and
                                                                                                                         Washington, DC         3      55.6%    34.1%          12.4%    8.6%       15.5%      72.6
metros is in walkable urban places       In metro New York City, 70% of all      neighborhood battles.
(WalkUPs/Type I or Walkable              multifamily rental inventory is in                                              Seattle                4      60%      37.1%          19.4%    12.4%      18%        69.4
Neighborhoods/Type II). However,         walkable urban places, followed         The leader in walkable urban            Portland               5      54.3%    36.7%          26.7%    20.8%      24.1%      68.5
there are significantly different        by Chicago (45%) and Boston             housing is Boston (24%), in part        San Francisco          6      38%      35.4%          22.2%    21.2%      24%        66.2
proportions between these                (44%). This high concentration          because of the large percentage of      Chicago                7      52.7%    44.8%          10.8%    15.2%      18.7%      65.9
different product types in walkable      of multifamily rental housing           pre-World War II homes built when
urban places. Office has the highest     is particularly pronounced in           the default development mode            Los Angeles            8      42.3%    30.5%          21.3%    17.3%      19.6%      59
concentration in walkable urban          Walkable Neighborhoods (Type II         was walkable urban. Metro Boston        Pittsburgh             9      51.4%    27.7%          6.6%     11.9%      14.3%      57.2
places by far (42.1% of all office       places).                                is followed by metro New York,
                                                                                                                         Philadelphia           10     39.7%    25%            7.8%     16.2%      17.2%      55.1
in the largest 35 metro areas is in                                              Portland, and San Francisco. It is
walkable urban places), followed by      By contrast, retail space is more       probable that this pre-World War        Minneapolis-St. Paul   11     37.8%    30%            6.2%     9.8%       13.%       54.4
multi-family rental (30.4%), retail      dispersed, with the walkable            II housing stock will all be returned   Miami                  12     36.9%    24.7%          30.4%    14.3%      16.7%      54.2
(18.5%) and the lowest is for-sale       urbanism share higher in certain        to its walkable urban roots in most     Charlotte              13     39.9%    14.3%          11%      2.2%       5.4%       51.7
residential (11.6%). Since about         markets like New York (59%) and         or all of these 35 metros over the
                                                                                                                         Austin                 14     33.7%    19.9%          22%      6.7%       11%        50
80% of the square footage of these       Miami (30%)—but it tends to be          next decade or so, through the
four product types are for-sale          lower across the board, with a          addition of small scale retail and      Atlanta                15     37.6%    15.1%          10.4%    2.7%       6.1%       49.4
housing, the weighted average            weighted average of 19% across          other commercial back into these        Denver                 16     33%      23%            6.5%     10.6%      12.6%      48.7
of all walkable urban space is           these 35 metro areas. Part of the       neighborhoods, which is followed        Cleveland              17     37.4%    17.6%          6%       3.8%       6.4%       47
substantially reduced.                   reason for the lower percentage         by households investing substantial
                                         of walkable urban retail is the         sums in rehabilitation of these         Houston                18     38.5%    13.4%          7.2%     5%         7.7%       46.6
This wide product mix difference         difficulty of building big box retail   houses.                                 Columbus               19     36.5%    11.3%          11.4%    5%         8%         46
has been pronounced by the               in walkable urban places, although                                              Baltimore              20     33.1%    18.8%          8.2%     7.8%       10%        44.7
pandemic; for example, the “work         some companies like Target, Best        It is important to note that planning
from home” phenomenon has                Buy, and even Home Depot’s              for, financing, and constructing        Kansas City            21     31.1%    12.8%          6.3%     2.7%       5%         44.1
particularly hurt the office product     Manhattan locations have made           walkable urban development is           Nashville              22     34.5%    13.7%          2%       4%         5.9%       43.5
type in general. Office space tends      progress in doing so.                   fundamentally different from            St. Louis              22     33.3%    20.2%          5.4%     7.1%       8.8%       43.5
to strongly favor walkable urban                                                 drivable sub-urban development.
                                                                                                                         Sacramento             24     30.5%    7.3%           4.9%     4.5%       6%         40.4
places in some of the top metro          Finally, these 35 metros tend to        There are very different skill
areas in our rankings—five cities, all   have less (16%) of their for-sale       sets for these two approaches           Cincinnati             25     30.5%    11.1%          6.2%     3.9%       5.7%       40
in the Top 10, had the majority of       housing stock in walkable urban         to real estate; different site          Detroit                26     24.4%    8.7%           0.8%     1.9%       3.3%       39.2
their office space in walkable urban     places, which takes the form of         acquisition, construction, zoning,      Dallas-Fort Worth      27     24.4%    10.8%          8%       3.4%       5.8%       38.9
places: New York, Washington,            small lot single-family homes,          transportation, parking, financing,
                                                                                                                         San Diego              28     15%      13.1%          5.8%     8.4%       8.9%       37
DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco,          townhouses, and attached condos.        management, and investment time
and Seattle. In the case of metro        This reflects the overwhelming          horizons. If a drivable sub-urban       Indianapolis           29     23.9%    7.3%           5.5%     1.9%       3.5%       36.4
New York City, a staggering 73%          late 20th century drivable sub-         developer or investor, using the        Tampa                  30     21.1%    11.7%          5.1%     6.6%       7.4%       35.4
of all office space in the region is     urban homebuilding patterns and         decades of drivable sub-urban           Virginia Beach         31     17.5%    6.3%           14.3%    2.6%       4.4%       34.5
in walkable urban places, due to         especially zoning, which mandated       “rules of thumb”, tried to use their
                                                                                                                         Phoenix                32     17.9%    9.3%           3.8%     1.7%       3.2%       33.6
the preponderance of corporate           only sprawl as the default mode         experience to build a walkable
headquarters, the largest finance        of housing development in many          urban development, they would           Orlando                33     19.8%    8.4%           6.3%     3.7%       5%         32.4
concentration in the world, and          communities. Drivable sub-urban         fail spectacularly. This is the         San Antonio            34     15.1%    5.5%           5.2%     2.3%       3.3%       29.4
the second largest technology            housing takes up by far the largest     reason why for-sale homebuilding
                                                                                                                         Las Vegas              35     6.5%     4.4%           7.4%     1.4%       2.5%       27.5
concentration, all of which tend to      amount of land in these 35 metros,      companies tend to have different
demand walkable urban places.            approximately 90%, and the              operating divisions to build drivable   WT. AVG                       42.1%    30.4%          18.5%    11.7%      16.3%      22.6
Multifamily rental housing also          low density zoning and NIMBY            sub-urban product versus walkable
                                                                                 urban product.
Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						 17 •                                                                                                                        • 18						 Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
Metropolitan Rankings                                                                                                                                               Metropolitan Rankings

Level 1: Highest Walkable Urbanism
                 New York        The most walkable urban metros          The New York City metro                  rail systems with some notable non-
                    Boston       tend to be on the coasts, with          area is ranked first for current         transit town centers in urbanizing
            Washington, DC       the notable exception of metro          walkable urbanism, as it has been        suburbs like Santana Row in San
                    Seattle      Chicago. These are the largest          in all previous editions of Foot         Jose.
                                 concentrations of knowledge             Traffic Ahead. New York has a
                  Portland
                                 economy industries driving the U.S.     reputation as a walkable urban           Metro Portland and Seattle share
             San Francisco
                                 economy, including technology,          metro; however, much of that             a Northwestern environmental
                   Chicago       finance, tourism and professional       reputation is based on the city’s        commitment that encourages
               Los Angeles       services. Many metro areas at the       core, especially Manhattan. Much         walkable urbanism, which is
                                 top of this list have large, historic   of the surrounding metro area            generally understood to be a top
   Range for Walkable Urban      rail transit networks and a history     is substantially less walkable in        approach to addressing climate
      Shares in Top 35 MSAs      of more compact urbanism that           northern New Jersey, Long Island,        change. This environmental
                                 predates 1940, when the default         and the southern Hudson Valley.          consciousness also resulted
              As a percentage    mode of development was walkable                                                 in the only two “urban growth
          of the entire market   urbanism. They also have relatively     Washington, DC has a rail network        boundaries”18 in the largest 35
                                 less late 20th century drivable         that started being built in the late     metros, limiting drivable sub-urban
                                 sub-urban development. Boston,          1970s but continued to expand            sprawl and focusing on transit-
             Office: 38-73%
                                 Washington, DC, Chicago, and            for the past 50 years, resulting         oriented development (TOD).19
             Retail: 11-59%
                                 San Francisco are consistently at       in a dispersion of walkable urban
        Multifamily: 31-70%      the top of U.S. regions in terms of     places throughout the region.            Lastly, Los Angeles ranks as number
            For-Sale: 9-25%      transit ridership which enables         This resulted in the walkable            eight in our FTA Index. This may
         Combined: 16-33%        much of the walkable urbanism and       urban transformation of the              come as a surprise because it is
                                 transit-oriented development these      suburbs, including Tysons, VA, the       often associated with freeways and
                                 regions have.                           prototypical drivable “Edge City’’ of    car culture. However, it is the most
                                                                         the 1980s which now has Metrorail        densely populated metro in the
                                                                         stations that are a catalyst for         U.S. and there is an understanding
                                                                         walkable urban building. This            that they have reached the limit of
                              The New York City metro                    urbanization of the suburbs is also      freeway expansion as a part of their
                          Office
                              area is ranked first for current           a key momentum trend for future          transportation system. However,
                         80% walkable urbanism, as it has been           walkable urbanism.                       the LA region had the longest rail
                                 in all previous editions of Foot                                                 transit system in the world in 1945,
                         60% Traffic Ahead. New York has a               Among the top metros, transit            which was eliminated by 1962.
                         40% reputation as a walkable urban              emerges as a key thread. Metro           The region has recently built, and
                                 metro; however, much of that            Chicago shows walkable urbanism          continuing expansions to, a new
                         20% reputation is based on the city’s           along its Metra and CTA network          regional transit system, investing
                          0% core, especially Manhattan. Much            extending far past the center city. In   $180 billion of locally-raised funds.
    For-Sale                     of the surroundingMultifamily
                                                      metro area         metro Boston, the T transit system       Many walkable urban places like
                                 is substantially less walkable in       anchors walkable urbanism in both        downtown Los Angeles, downtown
                                 northern New Jersey, Long Island,       the city and urbanized suburbs,          Pasadena, Santa Monica, Burbank,
                                 and the southern Hudson Valley.         like Cambridge and Somerville,           Long Beach, and Riverside, were
                                                                         and commuter rail network links          originally laid out as walkable
                             Washington, DC has a rail network           New England-style town centers           urban places which are now the
                             that started being built in the late        throughout the region. The San           core of their new walkable urban
                          Retail
                             1970s but continued to expand               Francisco Bay Area (which we             development.
                                       Source: Smart Growth America;
                             for the past 50 years, resulting in a       include with San Jose), benefits
                                                 Places Platform LLC
                             dispersion of walkable urban                from the BART, Caltrain, and MUNI

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						 19 •                                                                                                                        • 20 						    Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
Metropolitan Rankings                                                                                                                                                                                Metropolitan Rankings

 Level 2: Upper-Middle Walkable Urbanism
                  Pittsburgh        The second grouping in our walk-          explore this idea further, and lift up   dominated by drivable sub-urban
                Philadelphia        able urbanism rankings is one that        communities which have preserved         development for a half century, are    development. Limited walkable
          Minneapolis-St. Paul      is heavily based on the inclusion of      affordability in the context of walk-    now adding WalkUPs and walkable        urbanism outside of downtowns
                       Miami        Type II Walkable Neighborhoods,           ability, in our Social Equity section.   urban neighborhoods.                   have been the centers of master
                                    new in this year’s Foot Traffic                                                                                           planned communities,20 especially
                   Charlotte
                                    Ahead. The real estate and develop-       Many of these walkable                   The Miami region, like Los Angeles,    Woodlands and Sugarland.
                       Austin
                                    ment markets have re-discovered           neighborhoods saw significantly          shares a history of an initial early
                      Atlanta       early 20th century housing stock          more foot traffic during the             20th century boom around rail          Austin has emerged as one of the
                      Denver        in the central city, which was built      pandemic, as knowledge employees         transit in urban towns such as         top metro areas in the country for
                   Cleveland        as walkable urban neighborhoods           worked from home and began to            West Palm Beach, Boca Raton, Fort      technology and entertainment,
                     Houston        initially but reverted to Type IV         regularly frequent local businesses      Lauderdale, Coral Gables as well as    building on its previous
                                    drivable sub-urban districts as           for everyday needs on weekdays.          downtown Miami. Atlanta stands         foundational developments: the
    Range for Walkable Urban        walkable retail left during the           As many office-based organizations       out as a unique example in this tier   state capital and the University
       Shares in Top 35 MSAs        late 20th century. These areas            now operate with a hybrid model          as a booming drivable sub-urban        of Texas. The area has seen
                                    re-emerged as walkable urban              requiring two-to-four days in-office     Sunbelt metro area that is finally     extraordinary growth and a surge
                 As a percentage    places due to the location of mod-        per week, these walkable urban           taking the advantage of its 1970s      in housing prices during and since
                                    ern commercial amenities, many            neighborhoods will see increased         MARTA rail transit system. The         the pandemic. Most of the walkable
             of the entire market
                                    times occupying the very structures       local-serving retail and increased       success of transit-served Midtown      urban places are in the downtown
                                    that were retail establishments           viability for a wider variety of         and Buckhead was a precursor to        or downtown-adjacent places other
                Office: 33-51%      100 years ago. There has been a           types of businesses, such as lunch-      transit-oriented redevelopment of      areas having only a few walkable
                  Retail: 6-30%     re-emergence of “walkable villages        oriented restaurants, coffee shops,      Type I WalkUPs like the suburban       places, such as the Mueller New
           Multifamily: 13-30%      within a big city” throughout the         or stores catering to home business      perimeter. One of the most             Urbanism development on the site
  Single Family Housing: 2-16%      country, especially in these Level 2      needs.                                   important models of infrastructure     of the former airport, for example.
        Combined share: 5-17%       tier metros. Of course, we recog-                                                  repurposing, comparable to
                                    nize that some of this revitalization     Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are          New York City’s High Line, is the      Finally, metro Cleveland ranks
                                    led to gentrification, as well as class   at a near tie, underscoring that         BeltLine, a 22-mile multi-purpose      at the end of this tier, as it has
                                    and social-based displacement; we         these places have a combination          trail that serves as an example        generally only seen walkable urban
                                                                              of Type I WalkUPs, particularly          of building walkable urbanism          development in the center city,
                                                                              urban universities (University           along alternative transportation       focusing on downtown, downtown-
                                                                              of Pennsylvania and Temple in            corridors.                             adjacent places (The Flats), urban
                             Office                                           Philadelphia; and University of                                                 commercial places (Ohio City)
                                                                              Pittsburgh and Carnegie-Mellon           In Texas, Houston is usually           and urban education places like
                            80%                                               in Pittsburgh) and many Type II          thought of as a classic example        University Circle, anchored by
                            60%                                               walkable neighborhoods from the          of drivable sub-urbanism for           Case-Western Reserve, world class
                            40%                                               late 19th and early 20th centuries.      75 years, particularly since it is     hospitals, and numerous museums.
                            20%                                               Denver and Minneapolis-St. Paul          the energy capital of the world.       Cleveland has limited rail transit,
                             0%                                               are very comparable metros that          However, downtown Houston              which inhibits further walkable
       For-Sale                                 Multifamily                   have recently built and expanded         has been slowly redeveloping           urban development, but its Bus
                                                                              rail transit, and have had significant   while downtown-adjacent places         Rapid Transit (BRT) HealthLine is an
                                                                              success in attracting a highly           (Midtown, 4th Ward, Museum             example of expanding opportunity
                                                                              educated workforce in recent years.      Park), urban commercial (Montrose      through greater transit investment.
                                                                                                                       and Texas Medical Center) and
                                                                              Booming Sunbelt metros in this           urban university (University
                            Retail                                            level include Miami, Charlotte,          Place around Rice University)
                                              Source: Smart Growth America;
                                                                              Austin, Atlanta, and Houston, all        have exploded with recent
                                                        Places Platform LLC

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						 21 •                                                                                                                            • 22 						                                 Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
Metropolitan Rankings                                                                                                                                                       Metropolitan Rankings

Level 3: Lower-Middle Walkable Urbanism
                   Columbus       Level 3 is divided between Midwest        Columbia, Annapolis, and Towson.        Ferndale are recent local suburban
                    Nashville     metros repositioning their                Metro St. Louis has a walkable          models.
                   Baltimore      historically industrial economies         urban downtown, downtown-
                 Kansas City      by redeveloping walkable urban            adjacent places (Lafayette Park),       In the Sunbelt, Dallas-Fort Worth,
                                  places, and Sunbelt metros                and urban university (Cortex,           like Houston, is a longstanding
                     St. Louis
                                  attempting to introduce walkable          a highly successful Innovation          example of drivable sub-urbanism
                 Sacramento
                                  urbanism for the first time in            District, and West End), but has        over the past half century during
                   Cincinnati     generations. The post-industrial          limited growth of walkable urban        its rapid expansion. However, there
                      Detroit     metros of Columbus, Baltimore,            places, confined to a few places like   are many examples of WalkUPs
           Dallas-Fort Worth      Kansas City, St. Louis, Cincinnati,       University City, Kirkwood, and St.      and walkable urban neighborhoods
                                  and Detroit all have limited rail         Charles. A competitive and similar      in Dallas-Fort Worth that counter
   Range for Walkable Urban       transit, so they do not have a transit    metro, Kansas City, is revitalizing     this image, driven in large part
      Shares in Top 35 MSAs       catalyst for developing walkable          its downtown and downtown-              by extensive investment in rail
                                  urbanism. Metro Columbus is               adjacent walkable urban places,         transit. Both downtowns in this
               As a percentage    ranked the highest in this level due      such as Crossroads (focused on the      dual metropolitan area have had
           of the entire market   to its knowledge-based economy            arts) and River Market, and highly      exceptional redevelopment over
                                  centered around the Ohio State            successful urban commercial places,     the past two decades, like Dallas’
                                  University and the state capitol.         particularly Country Club Plaza,        Uptown, the model public space
               Office: 24-37%
                                                                            Old Westport, and Southmoreland.        Klyde Warren Park, Deep Ellum and
                 Retail: 1-11%    Baltimore continues the                                                           Cedars. Metro San Diego, likewise,
           Multifamily: 7-20%     revitalization of its downtown-           Metro Cincinnati is similar to St.      has invested in a new light rail
  Single Family Housing: 2-8%     adjacent walkable areas like Inner        Louis and Kansas City with limited      system that has sparked significant
      Combined share: 3-10%       Harbor, Federal Hill, Fells Point, and    rail transit and most walkable urban    walkable urban development.
                                  Locust Point. There has been limited      places confined to downtown and         The downtown is still revitalizing,
                                  growth of walkable urban places           exceptional downtown-adjacent           but it is surrounded by healthy
                                  outside of those areas, as more           walkable urban places (particularly     downtown-adjacent places (Marina,
                                  focus has been placed on downtown         Over-the-Rhine and downtown             East Village, Little Italy), limited
                                                                            Covington, KY) and WalkUPs in           urban commercial areas (Hillcrest,
                                                                            University Heights. There are           Old Town, North Park), and
                                                                            virtually no other walkable urban       greenfield Liberty Station.
                           Office                                           areas.
                                                                                                                    Metro Nashville is an economic
                           80%                                              We see a resurgent economy              boomtown which is driven by
                           60%                                              in metro Detroit over the past          technology and entertainment
                           40%                                              decade, though starting at a            much like Austin. Downtown
                                                                            low ebb, driven by remarkable           revitalization has been
                           20%
                                                                            downtown revitalization which           underway for 20 years and has
       For-Sale            0%                  Multifamily                  further energized downtown-             sparked downtown-adjacent
                                                                            adjacent places (Mexicantown,           redevelopment, such as East
                                                                            Corktown, Lafayette Park) and           End, Edgefield, and The Gulch.
                                                                            urban university (Midtown)              Finally, metro Sacramento has also
                                                                            walkable places. The urbanization       focused most of its walkable urban
                                                                            of the suburbs in Detroit had been      development in downtown and
                           Retail                                           limited to downtown Birmingham          downtown-adjacent places, such
                                                                            for decades but the emerging            as Midtown, Southside and Old
                                            Source: Smart Growth America;   downtowns of Royal Oak and              Sacramento.
                                                      Places Platform LLC

Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023						 23•                                                                                                                          • 24						 Foot Traffic AHEAD 2023
You can also read