ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea

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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
Decarbonising
Shipping:
ALL HANDS
ON DECK
Industry Perspectives

www.shell.com/DecarbonisingShipping
#MakeTheFuture

                                      In c ollabora t ion w it h
ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
CONTENTS
5    Foreword                          51   A New ­Paradigm:
                                            ­Solutions for
7    Introduction                            ­Decarbonising
11   Executive summary                      Signals of Change
17   Where We Are Today                     Principles
     The Drive to Decarbonise               Solutions
     GHG Emissions in Shipping              Unlock
27   The Deadlock: Barriers                  1.    Scale-up Customer Demand

     to ­Decarbonisation                     2.    Global Regulatory Alignment

                                             3.    Cross-sector Research & ­Development
     Decarbonisation Readiness
                                             4.    Scale-up Controlled Pilot Projects
     Factors
                                             5.    Coordinated Industry Commitments

     Market and Customer ­Demand
                                            Accelerate
     Regulatory Incentives                   6.    Flexible and Modular Designs

                                             7.    Port Coalitions
     Technology Alignment
                                             8.    Investor Pressure

     Clarity on Roles and Decision‑­         9.    Green Finance

     Making
                                            Scale
     Ease of Asset Replacement               10.   Scale-up Fuel Production

                                             11.   Scale-up Bunkering Infrastructure
     Ease of Infrastructure
     ­Replacement                           Foundation
                                             12.   Operational Efficiency

                                       73   The ­Roadmap:
                                            ­Accelerating
                                             ­Decarbonisation

                                            Motivation and Immediate
                                            Focus

                                            Let’s Get Moving

                                            Lead and Support Roles

                                       89   Credits
ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
FOREWORD
The world today is going through extraordinary change. For the energy
industry, there are great challenges, from the longer-term effects of climate
change to the immediate shock and uncertainty of the global pandemic. But
if there are risks, there are opportunities too – as long as industries work with
wider society to take urgent action.

                                                                                                                                                                                Huibert Vigeveno
                                                                                                                                                                                Downstream Director

The shipping sector is vital to the global            Based on more than 80 interviews across the          As an operator of a large fleet of tankers and a
economy and never more so than in recent              industry, from CEOs to financiers and ship           supplier of marine fuels, lubricants and services,
months, when it kept up the supply of essential       builders, the report identifies practical measures   Shell has a stake in the future of shipping. We
goods. It accounts for about 80% of the volume        to cut carbon emissions. It asks questions such      have announced our own ambition to be a
of global trade. If the world is to achieve the       as: what role will the world’s major ports play?     net-zero emissions energy business by 2050 or
goals of the Paris Agreement to tackle climate        How do you adapt assets with a 20-year               sooner, in step with society, and our shipping
change, it is crucial that sectors such as shipping   lifespan? How do you transform a sector so           operations must be part of this. We continue to
cut their carbon emissions and do so fast.            dependent on heavy fuels? The answers are            work with our customers on alternate fuels such
                                                      pragmatic, they show a will to work together         as biofuels, liquefied natural gas and hydrogen.
The International Maritime Organization has set       and they are optimistic.
the ambition of reducing the shipping industry’s                                                           As the head of Downstream, which is
greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 50% by           The report identifies 12 possible solutions.         responsible for shipping, I am buoyed by the
2050, and reducing the carbon intensity of            Operational efficiency is crucial, while others      optimism of this report and I relish the prospect
emissions by 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050,             include co-ordinating industry commitments,          of working with customers, partners, suppliers
compared to 2008 levels. The scale of the             increasing research and development across           and wider society to achieve lasting change.
challenge means that any solution needs to            sectors, and expanding the infrastructure to
be comprehensive and involve every aspect of          supply and store cleaner fuels.
shipping. As well as cleaner fuels, it should focus
on factors such as regulation, government action
and societal shifts. No sector can do this alone.
This report is driven both by urgency and the
need for collaboration.

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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
INTRODUCTION
Shipping has a dual challenge. It must meet the demand of the world’s
growing population, with more ships and more voyages, while radically
reducing its emissions. Achieving both will require a transformation, but there
are lessons we can take from experiences in the industry to help us.

                                           In Shell Shipping & Maritime, a key focus           I have been extraordinarily encouraged              What is evident is that, despite the complexity,
                                           area has been on improving safety across the        by the response. Despite being conducted            the industry sees that viable net-zero carbon
                                           industry. The aim is a zero-incident industry       between January and June 2020, a period that        shipping is achievable. It cannot be just one
                                           where every seafarer returns home safely. This      coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic across         company or sector, but with all hands on deck,
                                           has not been easy and there is more work to         the world, leaders were keen to participate         we can make it happen together.
                                           do, but huge progress has been made.                and were engaged in their responses. This is a
                                                                                               testament to the industry’s commitment to tackle
                                           To improve shipping’s safety performance, the       the challenge, and I would like to thank them all
                                           industry had to first work together to understand   for their time and contributions.
                                           the problem; what are the underlying factors
                                           that prevent us being safer? And then, armed        With this research, the industry has given its
                                           with that information, take collective action.      view, and now we must all get to work to move
                                                                                               from deadlock to decarbonisation. At Shell,
                                           Our objective with this report is to do the same    we will continue working with our customers
                                           for decarbonisation; we want to catalyse action     as they adopt new fuels and technologies that
                                           by creating a common understanding of barriers      help them reduce emissions. We will develop
                                           the industry faces and the solutions that will be   the business case for investment in solutions
                                           most effective.                                     which reduce emissions today as quickly as
                                                                                               possible, and we will continue to collaborate
                                                                                               and contribute in research which accelerates
                                                                                               progress to zero emission fuels.

                 Grahaeme Henderson
                 Vice President
                 Shipping & Maritime

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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
Report Objectives                                                                                  it is essential to collect, understand and
                                                                                                   build on their views as we seek to identify
This research reflects the perspectives of 82                                                      solutions that drive progress.
senior shipping leaders that represent almost all
segments of the shipping industry (see Exhibit 1).                                            ƒ    Clarify a Practical Way Forward:
It was developed with the following objectives:                                                    Shipping leaders who participated in this
                                                                                                   research looked beyond the challenges of
    ƒ   Take a Comprehensive View: Most                                                            today to explore the solutions of tomorrow.
        existing shipping decarbonisation studies                                                  Together they converged on a set of
        focus on specific challenges in isolation,                                                 actions and a roadmap that can help
        such as potential future fuels. Given the                                                  overcome the inertia that many see in the
        scale of the decarbonisation challenge,                                                    sector.
        a more thorough framing is needed that
        also includes economic, regulatory and                                              The primary motive of publishing this research is
        organisational factors.                                                             to highlight those insights shared with us through
                                                                                            interviews, workshops and desk research; not
    ƒ   Reflect the Voice of the Industry:                                                  the views of Shell or Deloitte. All engagements
        Ultimately, those within the industry will                                          with participants were conducted in a manner
        together play the most instrumental role                                            that respects competition law boundaries.
        in decarbonising shipping. Accordingly,

01 Research Participants

 82 shipping leaders in 74 interviews and 10 hours of collaborative workshops (30 participants)

 33 CEOs                                                    32 Vice Presidents, Unit Heads and                          17 General Managers,
                                                            Directors                                                   Managers and Specialists

 4 of top 10                   4 of top 10                  3 of top 5 cruise             3 of top 5 ship     2 of top 5          8 ports, incl. 1 of
 bulk and tanker               container                                                  financiers          shipbuilders        top 10

 52 Europe, Middle East & Africa                            13 North & South America                          17 Asia & Pacific

 32 Ship owner                 15 Charterers                8 Port authorities            10 Technology      11 Regulators,       6 Financiers and
 and operators                 and shipping                 and operators                 providers and ship classification       investors
                               customers                                                  builders           societies and
                                                                                                             academia

Note: Regions indicate organisations’ headquarters. Most organisations involved operate globally
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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Shipping is the backbone of the global              Growing pressure to reduce carbon emissions
economy. It is by far the most efficient mode of    across the global economy has opened new
freight transport1 and moves approximately 80%      opportunities. The industry has already started
of world trade volumes2. Simply put, the scale of   uniting, forming coalitions, launching pilot
global development seen over the last century       projects and exploring new ways to lower
would not have been possible without shipping       shipping emissions. A new paradigm is emerging
playing a key role. However, as the global          and there is an opportunity to accelerate
economy grows, so too will carbon emissions         change through a set of manageable, practical
from shipping.                                      solutions that will break the deadlock and
                                                    unlock progress. Making this happen requires
The shipping industry recognises the importance     collaboration within the shipping industry itself,
of decarbonising to help reach the goals            across the broader shipping ecosystem and with
of the Paris Agreement, and it has already          other sectors.                                       but for deep-sea shipping – which accounts for       it, many shipping leaders believe that the first
started to mobilise. The International Maritime                                                          around 85% of emissions5 – there is currently no     net-zero ships will need to start entering the
Organization (IMO) has announced an                 The Deadlock                                         viable alternative fuel that makes it possible to    global fleet by around 2030 – and that creates
ambition to at least halve international shipping                                                        reach the IMO’s 2050 ambition. The industry          a real sense of urgency.
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050,             Shipping is a capital-intensive industry             is currently exploring several alternative fuels –
while reducing CO₂ emissions intensity by           characterised by large, long-life assets,            including hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and            “2030 is tomorrow, 2050 is
at least 40% by 2030, and pursuing efforts
towards 70% by 2050, relative to a 2008
                                                    thin margins and a high-dependence on a
                                                    global supply of energy-dense fuels. These
                                                                                                         biofuels – but shipping leaders say that they
                                                                                                         all have commercial and technical limitations.
                                                                                                                                                              one ship lifetime away”
                                                                                                                                                              Shipping Technology Provider
baseline3. These ambitions send a signal to the     characteristics make decarbonisation complex         Costs are significantly higher than today’s
industry that change is coming, and all parties     and expensive, with one study estimating             dominant shipping fuel and most potential            A New Paradigm
involved need to prepare.                           the total cost at $1.65 trillion by 20504.           alternatives have lower energy density,
                                                    Consequently, decarbonising the industry needs       extensive storage and safety requirements and        Perspectives regarding decarbonisation are
Conversations with over 80 leaders across           sufficient regulatory and market incentives and      limited infrastructure. New technologies such        evolving and opening opportunities that were
the shipping industry highlight the daunting        an abundant supply of low or zero-emission           as propulsion systems and storage tanks need         not available a few years ago. Social pressure
challenge of shipping decarbonisation. It           fuels.                                               to be developed to resolve these barriers and        to reduce emissions is intensifying. Governments,
will be difficult, and shipping leaders feel                                                             enough fuel production capacity is needed to         investors and businesses are making
that uncertainty about where to begin has           “Too many alternatives and                           meet the 3.3 petawatt hours (12 exajoules6)          commitments and starting to act. Notably,
created what one interviewee described as a
“deadlock”. At the same time, many of those
                                                    not one viable solution”                             annual energy demand from shipping. To put
                                                                                                         that figure in perspective, energy required to
                                                                                                                                                              extensive levels of sustainable investments are
                                                                                                                                                              included in stimulus packages announced in
                                                    Shipping Operator
interviewed have a positive outlook. As one                                                              power shipping for one year would be enough          relation to the COVID-19 global pandemic8.
CEO stated, “decarbonisation is one of the          The lack of a global regulatory framework and        to power New York City for over 60 years7.           Technologies are continually evolving and
biggest challenges we face as an industry.          limited customer demand for lower-emission                                                                creating new potential avenues to lower
However, we have never been more united             shipping are significant barriers to activate much   This is the “deadlock”. However, there is a          emissions. As one CEO told us, “the situation is
around a problem, and there is optimism that        needed industry investment. Electric vessels may     growing view that now is the time to act if the      not all doom and gloom.”
we can make it happen.”                             be an option for inland and short-sea routes,        industry is to meet the IMO’s ambition. To reach

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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
The leaders of the shipping industry                  “Real commitment from                                    (R&D) across shipping, other harder-to-         production and bunkering infrastructure.
acknowledge this new paradigm. Over
90% of interviewees involved in this research
                                                      customers would go a long                                abate sectors and the energy industry.
                                                                                                               Create a much larger pool of capital and
                                                                                                                                                               Finally, operational efficiency must remain the
                                                                                                                                                               “foundation” of all these phases and is crucial
highlighted decarbonisation as important or           way to unlock investment”                                expertise to evolve new technologies and        to reducing emissions of both existing and
a top priority for their organisations, noting its    Shipping Owner & Operator                                increase the likelihood that production         future vessels. Energy efficient technologies,
importance has increased significantly over the                                                                and transportation infrastructure will          such as hull streamlining, air lubrication, wind
past 18 months. This sentiment reflects increasing    Based on these three principles, this report             be available once future fuels are              technology, weather routing, port optimisation,
action as new coalitions and pilot projects           focuses on 12 solutions, or recommendations for          commercially viable.                            and high quality fuels and lubricants are some
have been established to address barriers to          action, that emerged from research, interviews                                                           of the measures the industry can implement
decarbonisation. Even with the impacts of the         and workshops. These solutions streamline            4. Scale-up Controlled Pilot Projects:              immediately and throughout the decarbonisation
COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020,          what some view as an insurmountable problem             Increase R&D effectiveness by running            journey.
almost all shipping leaders that we interviewed       into several manageable phases that address             end-to-end green pilot projects involving
saw the resulting economic disruption as an           specific barriers and enable the industry to have       customers, charterers, operators,                “We can build rockets that
opportunity to accelerate progress.                   the first net-zero ships in the water by around
                                                      2030. The first five solutions aim to “unlock”
                                                                                                              owners and ports on specific routes and
                                                                                                              vessel types. Operators that follow a
                                                                                                                                                               come back from the moon
“The discussion has finally                           progress in the next two to three years.                predetermined schedule, such as container        but not make ships green?
become serious”                                                                                               ships especially on shorter and busier           No way. We can do it”
                                                       1. Scale-up Customer Demand:                           routes, are likely candidates for pilot
Shipping Owner                                                                                                                                                 Shipping Owner & Operator CEO
                                                          Create scale in demand for low or zero-             projects.
Most shipping leaders believe that a novel                emission shipping through charterers’                                                                The Roadmap
decarbonisation approach is needed and                    and customers’ commitments that include          5. Coordinated Industry
should be based on three main principles:                 long-term contracts and green procurement           Commitments: Increase the reach                  The opportunity for the industry to break the
                                                          criteria. Natural candidates to lead this           of existing initiatives – such as the            deadlock is clear, and there is little time to lose
 ƒ    Adopt an ecosystem perspective                      solution are state-owned and publicly listed        Getting to Zero Coalition, the Clean             if it is to meet the IMO 2050 ambition. The
 ƒ    Think big, start small, scale fast                  companies with proximity to end consumers           Cargo Working Group and others – by              solutions outlined in this report offer a roadmap
 ƒ    Focus on behaviours and triggers                    (e.g. containers, food bulk), and others            consolidating objectives and strengthening       to build on progress already happening
                                                          with ambitious scope 2 and 3 net carbon             the coordination of various concurrent           within the sector and to drive further change.
The first, “adopt an ecosystem perspective”               footprint commitments9.                             workstreams. A body with a specific              Momentum is building, and there is a sense of
recognises that the challenge is too large for                                                                mandate, formed with dues from the               optimism that it can be done. Those who take
any one organisation alone. It calls for a holistic    2. Global Regulatory Alignment:                        industry, could accelerate the shift from        the lead are in a better position to influence the
and integrated perspective, with each industry            Create a level playing field globally and           ideas to action and help break the               outcomes, but every operator and stakeholder
stakeholder having a role to play and a set of            reduce uncertainty regarding regulations            deadlock.                                        in the industry has a role to play. As one CEO
activities to focus on. The second, “think big,           and timeframes. New IMO guidelines due                                                               said, it’s “all hands on deck.”
start small, scale fast,” is based on the premise         in 2023 should provide clarity and should       These five solutions make up the first phase of
that small, incremental steps are the best way to         be aligned with leading local and regional      the decarbonisation roadmap (see Exhibit 02).
solve a challenge of such magnitude. The third            regulatory bodies (eg. EU, China and US).       The industry will then need to “accelerate”
principle, “focus on behaviours and triggers,”            Short-term regulatory incentives should also    progress by further de-risking early investments
underscores the importance of supporting                  be considered.                                  through flexible ship design, new port coalitions,
solutions with the right incentives. Incentives                                                           greater investor pressure and new financing
should be based on an understanding of what            3. Cross-sector Research and                       schemes that encourage low-carbon shipping.
will motivate stakeholders across the value chain         Development: Intensify partnerships             Next, the reduced risk and expanded incentives
to take a long-term perspective.                          to develop zero or low-emission fuels           resulting from previous phases will help attract
                                                          through joint research and development          the investment needed to “scale” green fuel

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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
02 Roadmap to 2030

                                                                                                Scale

                                                                                                10. Scale-up Fuel Production

                                                                                                11. Scale-up Bunkering Infrastructure
In parallel with the Unlock ­solutions, key
enabling activities for Accelerate and             Accelerate
Scale phase to start
                                                   6. Flexible and Modular Designs

                                                   7. Port Coalitions

                                                   8. Investor Pressure

                                                   9. Green Finance

 Unlock

 1. Scale-up Customer Demand

 2. Global Regulatory Alignment
                                                                                                                 Progressing solutions from Unlock and
 3. Cross-sector Research and Development                                                                        Accelerate phases will help create the
                                                                                                                 focus and conditions required to have the first
 4. Scale-up Controlled Pilot Projects                                                                           net-zero vessels in the water by 2030 and
                                                                                                                 meet the 2050 IMO ambition
 5. Coordinated Industry Commitments

 Foundation

 12. Operational Efficiency

                                                  2023: Expected IMO regulation             2030: The first net-zero vessels start
                                                                                            entering the commercial fleet

                              Short Term                                    Medium Term                                         Long Term
                              (2020 – 2023)                                 (2023 – 2030)                                       (2030+)

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ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
Where We
Are Today
ALL HANDS ON DECK Decarbonising Shipping: Industry Perspectives - Safety4Sea
Where we are: The shipping industry                                                 the IMO is expected to follow up with more

THE DRIVE TO
                                                                                                                                      has set an ambition to halve                                                        specific measures by 2023. The IMO is the first
                                                                                                                                      international shipping GHG emissions                                                regulatory body to adopt a global ambition for
                                                                                                                                      by 2050.                                                                            an entire industry, which is of critical importance

DECARBONISE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          given the role of shipping in the global
                                                                                                                                      In 2018, the IMO announced the initial strategy                                     economy.
                                                                                                                                      to reduce GHG emissions (see Exhibit 04).
                                                                                                                                      The strategy outlines an ambition to at least
                                                                                                                                      halve international shipping GHG emissions
                                                                                                                                      by 2050, while reducing CO₂ emissions
The 2015 Paris Agreement defined a bold ambition to limit global warming                                                              intensity by at least 40% by 2030, and pursuing
to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. In response, many                                                          efforts towards 70% by 2050, relative to a
countries, industries and individual organisations have set targets to limit their                                                    2008 baseline.11 While this is not binding,
carbon emissions and started developing plans on how to reach them.

There is no shortage of positive signs, but         03 Global CO₂ Emissions by Sector¹                                                04 IMO Timetable to Reduce GHG Emissions¹
the international community can do more
to address climate change. As the United
Nations Environment Program notes, “on current
                                                                                                                                              Initial IMO                                          Revised IMO                         Reduction of             Reduction of
unconditional pledges, the world is heading                                          Σ 30 %
                                                                                                                                              ­Strategy on                                         Strategy                            CO₂ emissions            CO₂ emissions
                                                                                     Harder-to-abate
for a 3.2°C temperature rise.”10 It is clear that                                    sectors
                                                                                                                                               reduction of GHG                                    (incl. mid term                     per transport            per transport
                                                                                                                                               emissions                                           ­measures                           work by at least         work by 70%
a more focused, industry-specific and action-                                                                                                  Ambitions set                                        2023‑2030)                         40%, from 2008
oriented approach is required to facilitate and     70,0%                            2.7%                                                                                                                                              baseline                 50% reduction
accelerate decarbonisation efforts.                 Other¹                           Shipping                      Chemicals                                                                                                                                    of total GHG
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                emissions from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2008 baseline
The challenge is particularly pronounced in six                                                                    Aviation

harder-to-abate sectors that, according to the                                                                                         2018                       2019                      2023            20252025                2030                   2050
                                                                                                                   Cement
International Energy Agency, currently account
for around 30% of global CO₂ emissions (see                                                                        Iron and steel                                        Impact
Exhibit 03). These industries share common                                                                                                                               ­assessment
characteristics, such as long asset lifespans,                                                                                                                            Resolution
                                                                                                                   Road freight
                                                                                                                                                                          on ports and
high energy dependency, and complexity                                                                                                                                    ­shipping
of electrification. Decarbonisation of these                                                                                                                               ­cooperation                          EEDI phase 3:
                                                                                                                                                                            GHG Technical                        30% reduction in
industries will, therefore, be slower, more
                                                                                                                                                                            cooperation Trust                    carbon intensity
investment-intensive and a more technically                                                                                                                                 Fund established                     takes effect
demanding endeavour compared to other
industries. As other industries decarbonise more
rapidly, pressure and focus on harder-to-abate                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Past dates
                                                    Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017; IEA 2014 baseline value
                                                    assumptions; ­Deloitte analysis. Notes: 1) Other includes feedstock, buildings,
industries is expected to increase.                 light transport                                                                   Source: IMO. Notes: 1) Selection of activities – not comprehensive                                                          Future dates

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05 Shipping Volume, Emissions and GDP Growth

GHG EMISSIONS                                                                                               225

IN SHIPPING
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Shipping volume¹
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                + 93%
                                                                                                            200

                                                                                                            175                                                                                                                                 World GDP²
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                +65%

                                                                                                            150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Shipping emissions³
Where we are: Shipping is critical to                  Where we are: Shipping is the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                +39%
the global economy and accounts for                    most efficient means of transport                    125
around 2.7% of global emissions.                       and continues to make efficiency
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Index, year 2000 = 100
                                                       improvements as volume grows.                        100
In the words of one interviewee, shipping is the
“backbone of the global economy,” allowing             Due to the colossal size of ships and the
the world to trade more goods over greater             continual drive for efficiency, shipping is by far       2000             2003             2006             2009             2012             2015                  2018
distances than any other mode of transport. It         the least emissions-intensive mode of transport
has historically grown in lockstep with economic       (see Exhibit 06). A large vessel emits 1% of         Source: UNCTAD; World Bank; IEA; Deloitte analysis
                                                                                                            Notes: 1) Shipping volume indicates ton-miles (how many tons of cargo were shipped over how many miles);
activity. For instance, between 2000 and 2018,         the CO₂ per ton-km that is emitted by a plane        2) World GDP in constant 2010 $, to eliminate effect of inflation; 3) International shipping shown, accounting for over 80% of global shipping

global GDP increased by approximately 65%              and 14% of the CO₂ emitted by the next most
while international shipping volumes increased         efficient transport alternative – a cargo train.16
by 93% over the same period (see Exhibit 05).12                                                             06 Emissions by Mode of Transport
                                                       The shipping industry continues to improve           g CO₂/ton-km1, 2, 3
The industry currently accounts for around 2.7%        its efficiency. Over the last two decades,
                                                                                                                             435
of global CO₂ emissions, but emissions are             shipping volumes have increased by 101% while
geographically concentrated across East-West           emissions only grew by 40% over the same time
trade routes and a relatively small set of vessel      frame. This is due to increased scale, technical                                                                                                               A large vessel emits 1% of CO₂
types.13 Bulk carriers, oil tankers and container      innovation and far-reaching operational                                                                                                                        per ton-km of a plane (5/435) and
ships account for around 85% of all shipping           improvements.                                                                                                                                                  14% of a cargo train (5/35)

activity (see Exhibit 07),14 while around 45% of
international maritime trade passes through the        For instance, today’s largest container vessels
20 largest global ports.15                             can carry around 22,000 containers, compared
                                                       with a maximum of around 1,000 containers in
Interviewees believe this concentration of             the early 1970s. Ship sizes have doubled over                                                                     80
emissions from specific uses and on specific           the past decade alone, reducing their carbon                                                                                                                     35
routes creates an opportunity. An operator from        intensity and also reducing the average shipping                                                                                                                                                               5

Asia-Pacific region said, “it allows us to focus our   cost per container by roughly a third.17                                Air                                     Road                                             Rail                                     Shipping
efforts on a small number of vessels and ports
for the greatest impact.”

                                                                                                            Source: IMO GHG study 2009. Notes: 1) Energy-efficient transport is much dependent on the load factor, vehicle efficiency and cargo type; heavier cargo and larger vehicles will
                                                                                                            improve the cargo/vehicle weight ratio, resulting in better CO₂/ton-km values; 2) Air = Boeing 747, Road = Truck > 40 ton, Rail = 3-4 hp / short-ton, Shipping = Average of very
                                                                                                            large container vessel (3 gCO₂/ton-km), oil tanker (6), bulk carrier (8); 3) Estimations assuming current energy mix

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07 Global Shipping Fleet¹

                                                                                    ~85%
                                                                                    of total emissions

                                                                                    Bulk Carriers                    General Cargo³                          Gas Carriers

Σ~51.7k               Σ~1,962                Σ~930
                                                                                        11.3         842    ~440         11.2          84       ~40               1.7         69            ~30
vessels                DWT²                  MtCO₂
                                                                                          k         M DWT   Mt CO₂         k         M DWT     Mt CO₂              k         M DWT         Mt CO₂

Source: UNCTAD; IMO; IEA; Deloitte analysis

Notes:
1) Ships of >1,000 gross tons, representing 99% of global ­tonnage;
2) DWT = Dead Weight Tonnage, an indicator of ­capacity;
3) General ­cargo includes multipurpose transport and other unclassified vessels;
4) Large ferries included. There is another ~8k+ of ferries < 1,000 gross tons
                                                                                    Oil Tankers                      Offshore Vessels                        Chemical Tankers

                                                                                        10.8         568     ~210        7.0          80        ~30              3.4          46            ~20
                                                                                          k         M DWT   Mt CO₂        k          M DWT     Mt CO₂             k          M DWT         Mt CO₂

                                                                                    Container Ships                  Cruise Ships / Ferries⁴

                                                                                        5.3          266     ~140        1.0           7        ~20
                                                                                         k          M DWT   Mt CO₂        k          M DWT     Mt CO₂

23      DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                      DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK   24
The industry has also become more                            production efficiency and reduce the benefits of
efficient through operational and technical                  having factories in distant, lower-cost locations.
improvements. Between 1976 and 2008, the                     This could lead to a reduction in subcontractor
carbon efficiency per weight-distance of some                layers and bring production closer to end
vessels improved by 75%.18 Interviewees believe              markets, resulting in lower demand for shipping
an additional 10 to 20% reduction in emissions               services. Shifting consumer preferences and
can be achieved with technical innovations and               trade protectionism may also have a similar
digitalisation opportunities such as just-in-time            negative impact on shipping volumes.
arrivals, to cut the time that ships spend waiting
outside ports.                                               The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic
                                                             significantly reduced shipping volumes. By April
Efficiency improvements are a central way to                 2020, up to 60% of China’s shipping capacity
meet the IMO’s 2030 ambition, but the industry               in Asia-Europe routes was idle.19 While the
will require a more fundamental shift in fuel as             impact has been acute, interviewees believe it
shipping volumes continue to grow.                           will be a relatively short-term disruption and the
                                                             industry will show signs of recovery by 2021.20
Where we are: The growth in shipping
volumes will increase pressure to                            While these demand-side factors may
accelerate decarbonisation.                                  individually decrease demand for shipping,
                                                             interview participants do not believe they will
Interviewees say that several trends in demand               fully offset growth in demand. Trade volumes
will influence shipping volumes and emissions in             and, in turn, shipping emissions are expected to
the coming years (see Exhibit 08). For instance,             continue to grow, increasing the importance of
automation and 3D printing could improve                     addressing barriers to decarbonisation.

08 Trends in Shipping Demand

                                                                                Impact on global
 Trend
                                                                                shipping demand

 Global economic growth
 (particularly from developing regions)

 More agile supply chains and nearshoring, enabled for example through
 production automation and 3D printing

 Trade protectionism and trade barriers

 Shifting consumer behaviour, for example circular economy, more conscious
 purchasing

 Short term: Trade growth post-COVID 19

 NET IMPACT

 Note: Trends identified are not exhaustive nor conclusive                      Colour indicates estimated ­magnitude of impact

                                                                                      LOW                        HIGH

25     DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                 DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK   26
The Deadlock:
Barriers to
Decarbonisation
Based on responses from industry executives, the

DECARBONISATION
                                                                                                          shipping sector scores on the low side in terms
                                                                                                          of its readiness to decarbonise, especially when
                                                                                                          compared with some other transport sectors

READINESS FACTORS
                                                                                                          (see Exhibit 09).

                                                                                                          The following sections focus on these six factors
                                                                                                          in greater detail.

A systematic approach to assess the industry’s readiness to decarbonise was
developed in collaboration with industry leaders by focusing on three core
questions. Then, based on a wide range of responses, we converged on six
decarbonisation readiness factors for the sector. We further refined these
in workshops with industry leaders from across the globe. These factors are
described in detail below.

Why should the sector change? i.e. what              4. Clarity on Roles and
might trigger industry stakeholders to act:             Decision-Making: The ease in
                                                        making decisions, clarity on the roles and
 1. Market and Customer Demand:                         responsibilities of key groups in the industry,
    Pressure and incentives from society,               and whether their priorities are aligned.
    customers, financiers and investors which
    create motivation for ship owners and           How fast can the sector change?
    operators to change.                            i.e. what effort is required to implement change
                                                    at scale:
 2. Regulatory Incentives: Instruments
    applied by global regulators and regional        5. Ease of Asset Replacement: What
    and local authorities. These can include            it takes to replace or upgrade the ships.
    incentives such as tax cuts and disincentives       This depends on ship cost, complexity and
    like fines and carbon levies.                       lifespan, and the rate at which alternative
                                                        technologies are developed.
Can the sector change? i.e. is
decarbonisation feasible in a foreseeable future:    6. Ease of Infrastructure
                                                        Replacement: What it takes to set up
 3. Technology Alignment: Technical                     green production of new fuels at scale,
    and commercial feasibility of alternative           deliver them to ports and prepare for
    fuels and other lower emission technology           bunkering. The more production capacity
    alongside clarity on how to further develop         needed and the more dispersed the
    these.                                              infrastructure, the greater the challenge.

29   DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                          DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK   30
09 Decarbonisation Readiness Assessment

 Readiness questions               Readiness factors                         Participants’ view on
                                                                             criticality of barriers

                                                                                                                          Personal vehicles                             Shipping
 Why should the sector change?     1. Market and Customer Demand             ~85%                      Minor barrier 0%                                                              Major barrier
                                                                                                                          (illustrative, reference only)
                                                                                                                                                                                     100%

                                   2. Regulatory Incentives                  ~70%                      Minor barrier 0%                                                              Major barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                     100%

 Can the sector change?            3. Technology Alignment                   ~80%                      Minor barrier 0%                                                              Major barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                     100%

                                   4. Clarity on Roles and Decision-Making   ~50%                      Minor barrier 0%                                                              Major barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                     100%

 How fast can the sector change?   5. Ease of Asset Replacement              ~60%                      Minor barrier 0%                                                              Major barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                     100%

                                   6. Ease of Infrastructure Replacement     ~65%                      Minor barrier 0%                                                              Major barrier
                                                                                                                                                                                     100%

31   DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                     DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK       32
Exhibit 10

MARKET AND
                                                                                                         Industry Perspective: Financiers do
                                                                                                         not have the risk appetite to fund
                                                                                                         unproven technologies.

CUSTOMER DEMAND                                                                                          Shipping companies rely heavily on loans,
                                                                                                         which make up approximately 70% of capital
                                                                                                         in the sector.21 According to most interviewees,
                                                                                                         loans have dried up in recent years as pressure                     INTERVIEW INSIGHTS
                                                                                                         has mounted on industry profitability. Smaller

                                                                                                                                                                             85%
Most interviewees indicate that incentives from customers and the broader                                ship owners consider it particularly challenging
financial market are critical to free up investments in decarbonisation                                  to obtain funding for new ships, let alone for
(see Exhibit 10). Such incentives are currently limited.                                                 more sustainable alternatives because financiers
                                                                                                         currently regard them as financially and
                                                                                                         operationally riskier.

Industry Perspective: Customers and                 Interviewees see initial signs of more sustainable   Recent initiatives in green finance, such as the
                                                                                                                                                                             Study participants perceive
charterers are not willing to pay or                practices in shipping procurement criteria set       Poseidon Principles, are important signals of
co-fund lower emission solutions.                   by companies that are under high regulatory          progress.22 However, interviewees see them as                       a lack of market and
                                                    or consumer pressure, such as the automotive,        more relevant and accessible to large owners,                       customer demand
Shipping plays an instrumental but invisible role   food, luxury retail and some large commodities       who already have good access to lower-cost                          to be a major barrier to
in most consumers’ lives. “Limited awareness        sectors. However, there is currently insufficient    financing.
means limited willingness to change the buying      demand to unlock investments at scale.
                                                                                                                                                                             decarbonisation
behaviour, especially when green products cost                                                           Industry Perspective: Lack of
more,” as mentioned by an executive from a          Industry Perspective: Investors have                 transparency regarding emissions
transport and logistics company.                    no incentives to invest in companies                 hinders decision-making.
                                                    with lower emission solutions.
Lower emission shipping will result in additional                                                        To enable decarbonisation activity, there
cost, especially during the early transition        Returns to shareholders of shipping companies        must be better transparency of emissions
period. Interviewees indicated that charterers      have been low over the last decade; therefore,       across the sector. Without transparency, it will
and other shipping customers currently have         major operators have been reluctant to make          be impossible for customers, investors and
limited appetite for additional costs, citing       major investments that may further erode             financiers to identify top performers and to verify
competitiveness concerns and the fact that          margins.                                             commitments.
shipping often represents a small proportion of
their total emissions and cost.                     There are examples of shareholder activism           Such data is not available today, as emissions        Calls for more transparency are intensifying,
                                                    leading to sustainability commitments, such as       reporting is only conducted for regulatory            with some customers and charterers requiring
“Shipping faces less scrutiny                       scope 3 emissions targets, but “returns still take   purposes and remains largely confidential. In         emissions profiles and performance data for the
from end consumers than                             precedence over all other factors,” said an
                                                    executive from a ship management company.
                                                                                                         addition, interviewees noted that consistent
                                                                                                         collection and comparison of data would
                                                                                                                                                               ships that they use. As transparency grows, it
                                                                                                                                                               will become easier for first mover operators to
aviation and road freight                           Consequently, executive teams at ship-owning         be challenging given the lack of accepted             differentiate themselves by demonstrating the
where visibility is high”                           companies remain reluctant to make investments       calculation standards.                                impact of their investments on emissions.
                                                    in lower emission technologies, which their
Shipping Operator
                                                    shareholders may regard as imprudent.

33    DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                          DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK         34
REGULATORY
  INCENTIVES
  The IMO’s 2050 ambition has created a common goal for the industry.
  However, most interviewees believe more clarity is needed regarding binding
  regulations, which will be instrumental to unlock progress (see Exhibit 11).

                                    Exhibit 11   Industry Perspective: Lack of                      Industry Perspective: Enacting global                Industry Perspective: The industry is
                                                 binding regulation regarding carbon                regulation is a slow and complex                     worried that misalignment of global
                                                 emissions limits progress.                         process with many interests to align.                and local regulation may lead to an
                                                                                                                                                         uneven playing field.
                                                 Interviewees indicate that historically there      “IMO 2020 took over 15
                                                 is limited evidence of the shipping industry
                                                 implementing major changes without new
                                                                                                    years, and that was simpler                          Interviewees acknowledge that if global
                                                                                                                                                         regulation takes too long, there is a risk global
INTERVIEW INSIGHTS                               regulations. The IMO 2020 regulations provide      than decarbonisation”                                or regional bodies move first, creating an

70%
                                                 a case in point. Interviewees indicated that       Shipping Operator                                    uneven regulatory landscape and unnecessary
                                                 despite advance notice, many companies were                                                             complexity.
                                                 unprepared for the changes and had to make         The IMO has 174 member-states, and most
                                                 last-minute investments to comply.                 interviewees believe that developing and             For the most part, interviewees believe
                                                                                                    adopting new global regulation will be very          this could cause competitiveness issues
                                                 In general terms, interviewees hold two views      time consuming. Interviewees wait with caution       and increase the cost of compliance. As
                                                 on the role of regulation. A slight majority       for more guidance on binding targets, expected       an example, many interviewees flagged a
Study participants perceive                      believe that nothing can be done until             in 2023.23                                           possibility that the European Union could
a lack of regulatory                             regulation becomes clearer. A sizeable minority                                                         define emission regulations before the IMO,
incentives to be a major                         indicate that the industry should take proactive   However, most believe the long wait for global       creating an uneven playing field. Companies
                                                 steps ahead of regulation. In the words of         regulations will be worth it if it creates a level   with Europe-based operations could then end
barrier to decarbonisation                       the CEO of one tanker operator, the lack of        playing field across the globe. A chairman of an     up carrying a larger proportion of the early
                                                 regulation is used “as an excuse to do nothing,    Asia-based global operator noted, “it is either      decarbonisation costs than their competitors
                                                 even though there are no regret activities that    a level playing field across the globe, or speed.    from other parts of the world.
                                                 can be taken today.”                               You cannot have both. The power of the IMO
                                                                                                    is its member nations working together, but that
                                                                                                    takes time.”

  35   DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                  DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK            36
Exhibit 12

TECHNOLOGY                                                                                              viable alternative. If fuel cell technology was
                                                                                                                                                                             INTERVIEW INSIGHTS

ALIGNMENT
                                                                                                                                                                             80%
                                                                                                        developed before hydrogen or ammonia are
                                                                                                        available at scale, transition fuels like LNG
                                                                                                        could potentially be used, and switched to a
                                                                                                        new fuel when it emerges.

                                                                                                        “Hydrogen economy is the
The shipping fuel landscape has not evolved a great deal since the transition                           ultimate solution, but still                                         Study participants perceive
from coal in the 1950s. 80% of interviewees indicated that technology
alignment is needed if the industry is to meet the IMO’s 2050 ambition,                                 many years away”                                                     a lack of technology
especially regarding which new fuels will be used where (see Exhibit 12).                               Ship Manager                                                         alignment to be a major
Yet the pathway to powering net-zero vessels remains uncertain.                                                                                                              barrier to decarbonisation
                                                                                                        Ammonia and hydrogen have different
                                                                                                        characteristics. Hydrogen requires more storage
                                                                                                        volume than ammonia for the same range, while
Industry Perspective: Alternative fuels              methane emissions in the supply chain and that     both hydrogen and ammonia require more
that support the 2050 ambition have                  it may distract the industry from investments in   storage volume than HFO and LNG. Given that
technical limitations, are unproven                  zero-emission fuels.                               energy density plays a more important role on
and/or perceived as unsafe.                                                                             ships than on land, one executive from a global        producing these fuels sustainably will decrease.
                                                     Hydrogen and Ammonia                               shipping technology company noted, “if on              As one interviewee put it, “the scale of
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)                          Interviewees consider hydrogen and ammonia         land hydrogen becomes the big thing, ammonia           investments we see in green hydrogen globally
LNG is 20 to 25% less carbon intensive than          to be the most promising long-term fuel            could be a good option for shipping, as it is a        means it will become cost effective much
Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), and emits less nitrogen        alternatives for shipping, although neither of     good way of carrying hydrogen.” Ammonia is             faster than we think.” Conversely, there is little
oxides (NOx) and sulphur oxides (SOx).               them is viable today.                              also already used in fertilizers. As such, there is    evidence that other industries consider ammonia
                                                                                                        some existing infrastructure that could be used,       as a future fuel. For that reason, if shipping was
The prevailing view among interviewees is that       Hydrogen and ammonia have significantly            and “the shipping industry has had experience          to select ammonia as its dominant fuel, it is likely
LNG will have a role to play as a transition fuel    lower energy density than HFO, requiring           handling it for over 30 years.” However, some          that the infrastructure costs would be borne
in the next decade. As an executive at a global      either new technology, more frequent refuelling    interviewees are concerned about ammonia’s             entirely by this sector.
bulk ship owner and operator said; “It took          stops, or compromised cargo space to store         high ignition energy and toxicity, with one
many years for LNG to become viable, it is the       fuel. In addition, interviewees highlighted that   Asia-based bulk ship operator saying that “we          Other alternative fuels
only alternative we have today, and it will get us   hydrogen requires ultra-low cryogenic conditions   have been trying for the last 20 years to stop         Biofuels are made from biomass. Synthetic fuels
under the 2030 IMO target.”                          to maintain its liquid state under atmospheric     transporting ammonia by ships as it is toxic and       are produced using a combination of hydrogen
                                                     pressure, creating potential for additional        difficult to handle.”                                  and carbon monoxide. These fuels are relatively
These interviewees pointed out that LNG              costs. The storage challenge could be offset                                                              easy to adopt because they can largely use
adoption is increasing, and some ship owners         by adopting energy-efficient technology and        Current production of ammonia and hydrogen             existing infrastructure and existing engines. But
are in the process of taking on LNG-powered          moving from internal combustion engines to         represents a small fraction of what the shipping       given the large volume of fuel needed for the
ships to reduce emissions.                           fuel cells. This potentially makes the ships       industry would require. A common concern is the        industry and the land and biomass required to
                                                     more efficient, while saving space on ships.       high cost to produce hydrogen and ammonia in           produce it, interviewees raised concerns about
Others were more reserved about the role of          However, most interviewees believe that            a low-carbon or carbon-neutral way. However,           the availability of biofuels in enough quantities.
LNG, pointing out that it will be insufficient to    fuel cell technology is immature. It will likely   in a scenario of abundant renewable power
meet the 2050 ambition, carries the risk of          take at least 5-10 years before it becomes a       and as technology costs decline, the cost of

37   DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                           DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK             38
More scepticism was expressed regarding               one Europe-based operator suggested that,                           Interviewees indicated that many onshore                  operator put it, “shipping uses the lowest quality
the use of batteries. As one executive from a         “if climate change accelerates, the negative                        sectors are also undergoing transitions in energy         fuel from refineries, which means it’s cheap and
cruise company put it, “electrifying small ships is   connotations of nuclear will be secondary to                        source and that decisions made on land will               no one else wants it.” As a result, new fuels will
great, but most emissions come from deep-sea          global warming.”                                                    have major consequences for which fuel will be            likely cost more and will require the industry to
shipping, and there are no viable options to                                                                              viable in shipping. One executive from a global           compete for supply with other industries.
address that with batteries.”                         Exhibit 13 provides a summary of interviewees’                      bulk ship operator indicated that, “most of these
                                                      assessment of key alternative fuels.                                technologies will have to find their way into land-       Without a stronger commercial or regulatory
“If we don’t get our                                                                                                      based sectors first, before being adopted in              incentive, operators are sceptical about their
act together, we will still                           Industry Perspective: Too many
                                                      future fuels are being considered,
                                                                                                                          shipping. It is easier to develop these on land”.         ability to find a fuel that is a viable alternative
                                                                                                                                                                                    to HFO. They indicate that many stakeholders
be talking about ten                                  and there is a lack of clarity on how                               Industry Perspective: HFO is hard                         will need to play a part to develop and
different fuels when the                              the preferred fuel(s) will be chosen to                             to match in terms of commercial                           commercialise new technology. If a viable
                                                      allow for scale.                                                    attractiveness and existing scale.                        alternative is not found, various forms of carbon
deadline flies by”                                                                                                                                                                  offsets will be required to reduce net emissions
Shipping Operator                                     Many interviewees expressed concerns that the                       HFO, shipping’s primary energy carrier today, is          to levels that support the sector’s ambition.
                                                      range of fuel options being considered is still                     cheap, energy-dense and has well-established
Finally, some US-based operators suggested            too broad. This results in effort and investment                    supply chains. As a by-product of the refining
that, “nuclear is really the only solution that       being spread too thin and challenges efforts                        process, it is used by few other industries which
exists today that could be implemented                to coalesce around a viable solution in time to                     creates more certainty around cost and supply.
relatively quickly.” To strengthen that point,        meet targets.                                                       As one executive from an Asia-based tanker

13 Industry Perspective on Alternative Fuels

 Fuel                              Part of future mix?             Engine type                       View on technology        View on applicability to          Advantages                             Disadvantages
                                   (% participants)                                                  maturity                  shipping

 Green Hydrogen                    65%                             Combustion                        Medium                    Medium                            Cross-sector applications – possibly   Cost
                                                                                                                                                                 faster R&D                             Low energy density
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cryogenic storage conditions
                                                                   Electric                          Low                       High                              Less space for engine and better
                                                                   (fuel cell)                                                                                   specs than combustion

 Green Ammonia                     55%                             Combustion                        Medium                    High                              Relatively high energy density         Cost
                                                                                                                                                                 Port experience in handling            Toxicity

                                                                   Electric                          Low                       High                              Less space for engine and better
                                                                   (fuel cell)                                                                                   specs than combustion

 Biofuels                          10%                             Combustion                        High                      Low                               Easy to implement in current engines   Limited feedstock, unlikely to be
                                                                                                                                                                                                        available to shipping

 Methanol                          10%                             Combustion                        Rarely mentioned          Rarely mentioned                  Rarely mentioned                       Rarely mentioned

 Batteries                         < 5%                            Electric                          High                      Low                               Mature technology                      Extremely low energy density – size
                                                                                                                                                                                                        and weight of batteries

 Nuclear                           < 5%                            Heat                              Medium                    Low                               Mature technology                      Very high investment, social aversion

39    DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                                           DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                       40
Exhibit 14

CLARITY ON ROLES
                                                                                                        Industry Perspective: Contracting
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        INTERVIEW INSIGHTS
                                                                                                        models are inflexible, hindering

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        50%
                                                                                                        investments that support lower-

AND DECISION-
                                                                                                        carbon emissions.

                                                                                                        Interviewees indicate that optimising ship

MAKING
                                                                                                        operations, such as speed management or
                                                                                                        just-in-time port arrivals, is one of the largest
                                                                                                        potential areas of emissions reduction in the
                                                                                                        short term.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Study participants perceive
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        a lack of clarity on
Decarbonisation is a complex process and requires decision-making with a                                                                                                                                                roles and decision-
high degree of global alignment. Interviewees noted concerns regarding the                                                                                                                                              making to be a major
industry’s ability to clarify roles and decision-making power of key stakeholders,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        barrier to decarbonisation
which could negatively impact the effective allocation of resources in the
sector (see Exhibit 14).
                                                                                                        15 Shipping Value Chain
Industry Perspective: The global                    Different forms of company ownership add
fleet is owned by many small                        extra complexity. State-owned enterprises,          % Market share of top 10 players –                                                                                                               Shipping customers
                                                                                                                                                                                               Currently key decision
companies, and multiple stakeholders                large publicly listed corporations, large private   ILLUSTRATIVE
                                                                                                                                                                                               makers in ship design
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (e.g. consumer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         goods companies)
are involved in ship operations,                    companies and numerous small, often family-
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         not shown
which complicates decision-making                   run, businesses all play important roles in the
regarding new technologies.                         industry. Varying forms of ownership mean
                                                    differing approaches to decarbonisation. As         Engine                         Ship                           Ship                           Ship                           Ship operators                 Freight
                                                                                                        manufacturers                  builders                       owners                         managers                       and charterers                 forwarders / 3PL
Ownership of the global shipping fleet is           one executive from a chemical ship operator
fragmented, with the top 10 ship owners             put it, “state-owned entities are under the most
making up less than 20% of total capacity.          social pressure, public companies face a mix
The remaining 80% of the fleet is owned by          of social and commercial pressure, and private
However, decisions about speed and port
arrival times are often dictated by charter
party agreements, which many interviewees
say are inflexible and, therefore, disincentivise
improvements.

“We could get a 10% CO₂
reduction and fuel-cost
savings by optimising arrival
times like airlines. But
contracts mean we would
not get the benefits”
Shipping Operator

Charterers are often equally unable to invest
in new on-board solutions to improve vessel
efficiency. Asset owners are typically responsible
for new investment decisions but rarely reap the
benefits of resulting efficiency.

43    DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK     DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK   44
Exhibit 16

EASE OF ASSET
                                                                                                         Some shipping leaders are more optimistic,
                                                                                                         pointing out that the industry has successfully                     INTERVIEW INSIGHTS
                                                                                                         transitioned fleets in the past. For example, after

REPLACEMENT                                                                                                                                                                  60%
                                                                                                         the introduction of new design regulations for
                                                                                                         tankers in 1992, the entire fleet was changed
                                                                                                         from single to double-hull design in under 25
                                                                                                         years.

                                                                                                         “Our timer doesn’t start until
                                                                                                         we get our fuel, and the                                            Study participants perceive
Today’s ships are huge feats of engineering, requiring major capital and                                                                                                     complexity
several years to build. They are also costly to modify. Interviewees highlighted                         clock is already ticking”
the risks of investing in new ships and the time it will take to replace the fleet as                    Ship owner
                                                                                                                                                                             of asset replacement
key challenges (see Exhibit 16).                                                                                                                                             to be a major barrier to
                                                                                                                                                                             decarbonisation

Industry Perspective: Ship owners                     mentioned LNG-powered propulsion
are reluctant to invest in net-zero                   installations, which can be made ammonia-
vessels due to risks resulting from lack              ready with a relatively small investment.
of clarity regarding future fuels and
regulation.                                           Industry Perspective: Ship lifespans
                                                      are long, requiring significant time to
Interviewees highlighted that the lack of clarity     replace existing fleets.
regarding regulation and future fuels has
exacerbated conservatism in the industry and          Given the average lifespan of a ship,
generated a reluctance to invest in new ships to      interviewees acknowledge that transitioning
“avoid the risk of getting locked into a wrong        the global fleet will take 20 to 30 years, even
technology,” said an executive from a global          if a viable zero-carbon fuel was available
shipping financier.                                   today. Considering the IMO’s 2030 and 2050
                                                      ambitions, this creates significant pressure to
“There is a risk that new                             identify viable fuel alternatives as soon as
fuels or regulation will make                         possible.

new ships obsolete”                                   Most interviewees indicate that the industry
Shipbuilder                                           will need to make greater progress in
                                                      operational efficiencies, retrofitting and ship
Additionally, some interviewees noted that the        decommissioning to transition the fleet in time.
industry is starting to recognise that current ship   However, many believe that retrofits are costly,
designs are inflexible. Designers and technology      and, as margins are under pressure, they need
providers are focusing on improving flexibility to    to “sweat the assets,” in the words of the CEO
allow easier switching between fuels or lower         of a large tanker operator.
cost of retrofits. For example, a few interviewees

45     DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK                                                                                                         DECARBONISING SHIPPING : ALL HANDS ON DECK   46
EASE OF
 INFRASTRUCTURE
 REPLACEMENT
 The shipping industry consumes 3.3 pWh (~12EJ) of energy annually.24
 Transitioning the world’s fleet to a new source of energy will, therefore,
 take a huge effort to build out the necessary fuel production and bunkering
 infrastructure. Most interviewees consider this a major barrier to decarbonisation
 (see Exhibit 17).

                                   Exhibit 17   Industry Perspective: Infrastructure
                                                to produce zero-emission fuels will
                                                require significant investment, time to
                                                scale up and will depend on decisions
INTERVIEW INSIGHTS                              in other sectors.

65%
                                                There is currently very limited infrastructure
                                                for the sustainable production of alternative
                                                fuels being explored by the industry. Several
                                                interviewees cited a recent study by the
                                                University Maritime Advisory Services, which
                                                estimates that 87% of the $1.65 trillion cost to
Study participants                              decarbonise shipping by 2050 will need to be
perceive complexity                             dedicated to creating supply and bunkering
of infrastructure                               infrastructure.25

replacement to                                  While bunkering infrastructure will be specific
be a major barrier to                           to shipping, fuel production is a broader global
decarbonisation                                 challenge involving many sectors of the global
                                                economy. As such, interviewees recognise the
                                                need to collaborate with onshore sectors and
                                                energy companies to secure reliable fuel supply.

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Industry Perspective: Bunkering                        infrastructure in a few key ports could have a                                     Given the uncertainties, developing the                        The main barriers to shipping decarbonisation
providers and ship operators are                       disproportionate impact due to the needs of                                        bunkering infrastructure will be one of the                    are summarised in Exhibit 18. The changing
waiting on each other to make the                      large container lines and regular bulk routes.                                     most time-consuming steps in shipping                          paradigm and solutions to address the barriers
initial investments in net-zero ships                  For instance, 20 ports handle around 45% of                                        decarbonisation.                                               and meet the IMO’s 2050 ambition are
and infrastructure.                                    global container trade26. In the words of one                                                                                                     explored in the next section.
                                                       classification society, “building infrastructure in                                “Why would I build a ship
Given the uncertainty over fuels, neither ports
nor ship owners are willing to make investments
                                                       the top five ports would already help a lot.”
                                                                                                                                          that runs on a new fuel until
in new technologies.                                   However, port decisions on adopting new fuels                                      I know I can fuel it. And no
                                                       and building out the infrastructure will take time.                                new bunkering will be built
The biggest challenge in the shift to a new fuel       “With LNG, it took some ports ten years to go
is in tramp trade, where ships do not operate          through the authorities, and that was when they                                    until there is a market”
according to a predetermined schedule. Ships           knew they wanted LNG,” said an executive at a                                      Ship operator

operating in this way require a near-ubiquitous        large European operator.
supply of fuel. Conversely, developing

18 Decarbonisation Readiness Summary

                    Readiness factors           Main barriers

 Why should         1. Market and Customer         Customers and charterers are not willing to      Investors have no incentives to invest in             Financiers do not have the risk appetite            Lack of transparency around emissions
 the sector         Demand                         pay or co‑fund lower emission solutions          companies with lower emission solutions               to fund unproven technologies                       hinders decision-making
 change?

                    2. Regulatory Incentives       Lack of binding regulation around carbon         Enacting global regulation is a slow, and             The industry is worried that misalignment of
                                                   emissions limits progress                        complex process with many interests to                global and local regulation may lead to an
                                                                                                    align                                                 uneven playing field

 Can the sector     3. Technology Alignment        Alternative fuels that support 2050 ambition     Too many future fuels are being                       HFO is hard to match in terms of commercial
 change?                                           have technical limitations, are                  considered, and there is lack of clarity              attractiveness and existing scale
                                                   unproven and / or perceived as                   on how the preferred fuel(s) will be
                                                   unsafe                                           chosen to allow for scale

                    4. Clarity on Roles and        The global fleet is owned by many small          Contracting models are inflexible
                    Decision-Making                companies and multiple stakeholders              hindering investments that support lower carbon
                                                   are involved in ship operations, complicating    emissions
                                                   decision-making around new technologies

 How fast can       5. Ease of Asset               Ship owners are reluctant to invest in           Ship lifespans are long, requiring
 the sector         Replacement                    net-zero vessels due to risks resulting from     significant time to replace existing fleets
 change?                                           lack of clarity around future fuels and
                                                   regulation                                                                                                                                                                            Severity

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Major
                    6. Ease of Infrastructure      Infrastructure to produce zero emission          Bunkering providers and ship operators are
                    Replacement                    fuels will require significant investment,       waiting on each other to make the                                                                                                        Moderate
                                                   time to scale up and will depend on              initial investments in net-zero ships and
                                                   decisions in other sectors                       infrastructure                                                                                                                           Minor

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