Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 - EEA Report No 8/2017
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EEA Report No 8/2017
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse
gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015
ISSN 1977-8449
EEA Report No 8/2017 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015
Cover design: EEA Cover photo: © Marco Veneziano Left photo: © Marco Veneziano Right photo: © EEA Layout: EEA/Pia Schmidt Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Union. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. Copyright notice © European Environment Agency, 2017 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2017 ISBN 978-92-9213-861-5 ISSN 1977-8449 doi:10.2800/121780 European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel.: +45 33 36 71 00 Web: eea.europa.eu Enquiries: eea.europa.eu/enquiries
Contents
Contents
Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................... 4
Foreword....................................................................................................................................... 5
1 GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014........................................................................... 6
1.1 Summary (last year)................................................................................................................. 6
1.3 Largest emission changes by sector at EU level................................................................... 8
1.4 Largest Member State contributions to the EU performance �����������������������������������������10
1.5 Weather conditions and road transport drive emissions up �������������������������������������������11
2 GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015................................................................ 14
2.1 Summary (last 25 years)........................................................................................................14
2.3 Largest emission changes by sector at EU level.................................................................18
2.4 EU policies and GHG emission reductions..........................................................................22
2.5 Largest Member State contributions to the positive EU performance...........................27
2.6 The economy and the link to GHG emissions ....................................................................27
2.7 The weather, the climate and GHG emissions...................................................................32
2.8 Early indications of 2016 emissions.....................................................................................35
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 3Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
This report was prepared by the European Directorate‑General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA).
Environment Agency (EEA). The project manager The EEA acknowledges the team-work of the people
and author was Ricardo Fernandez (EEA), with and main institutions involved in compiling the EU
input, comments and support from Blaz Kurnik, GHG inventory, including the EEA and its European
Herdis Gudbrandsdottir, Magdalena Jozwicka, Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change
Francois Dejean, Claire Qoul (EEA) and former Mitigation (ETC/ACM), DG CLIMA, Eurostat, and the
EEA colleague Spyridoula Ntemiri. The author also Joint Research Centre (JRC), without whom this report
acknowledges input from the European Commission's would not have been possible.
4 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015Foreword
Foreword
Analysis of key drivers in greenhouse gas parts: the first part looks at the year 2015 compared
emissions in the EU to 2014 and the second part looks at the whole
period between 1990 and 2015, as well as an analysis
This paper analyses the major factors that accounted of the effect of the economy and the weather on
for decreased and/or increased greenhouse gas (GHG) GHG emissions. The data is based on the EU's GHG
emissions excluding land use, land use changes and inventory submission to UNFCCC in 2017 (1).
forestry (LULUCF) in the EU-28. It consists of two
(1) The EU GHG inventory comprises the direct sum of the national inventories compiled by the EU Member States making up the EU-28. In
addition, the European Union, its Member States and Iceland have agreed to jointly fulfil and report on their quantified emission limitation and
reduction commitments for the second commitment period to the Kyoto Protocol. In this paper the analysis is based on the EU-28 reporting
under the UNFCCC (i.e. Convention reporting).
The main institutions involved in compiling the EU GHG inventory are the Member States, the European Commission Directorate-General
Climate Action (DG CLIMA), the European Environment Agency (EEA) and its European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change
Mitigation (ETC/ACM), Eurostat, and the Joint Research Centre (JRC). More information on the EU GHG inventory, including the GHG data viewer
can be found on the EEA's website at: www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-union-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2017.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 5GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
1 GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
1.1 Summary (last year) EU energy system because of the increased shares of
renewables and gas relative to coal in the fuel mix. The
Total GHG emissions in the EU (excluding LULUCF) energy intensity of GDP also improved as total energy
increased for the first time since 2010 by 23 million consumption increased less rapidly than economic
tonnes, or 0.5 % compared to 2014 (2), to reach growth. The improvement in energy intensity was
4 310 Mt CO2 equivalent in 2015. This modest increase largely driven by lower energy-transformation losses
in emissions came along with an increase in gross and better energy efficiency of the overall EU economy.
domestic product (GDP) of 2.2 %, the largest increase
since the economic crisis started in the second half Spain, Italy and the Netherlands accounted for the
of 2008. This resulted in a lower emissions-intensity largest increases in GHG emissions in the EU in 2015.
of GDP in the EU in 2015 and contributed to a further The UK recorded the largest reduction.
decoupling of GHG emissions and economic growth.
1.2 Overall results at EU level
The increase in emissions was triggered by the higher
heat demand by households and services due to Total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, increased
slightly colder winter conditions in Europe, as well as for the first time since 2010 to reach 4310 Mt CO2 eq.
by higher road transport demand, which increased In 2015, and in line with the European Environment
for the second year in a row. These sectors are not Agency's (EEA) Approximated GHG inventory published
covered by the EU emissions trading system (ETS), and last year (3), EU emissions were 0.5 % above 2014 levels
explains why overall net emissions increased in spite of (0.6 % including international aviation), equivalent to
the reduction in EU ETS emissions the same year. ETS a net increase of 23 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents.
emissions from stationary installations decreased by Compared to 1990, total GHG emissions were
0.7 %, whereas emissions from the non-trading sectors 23.7 % lower in 2015 (22.1 % lower when including
increased by 1.4 % in 2015. international aviation).
Total energy consumption increased overall, with fossil Figure 1.1 breaks down the 0.5 % overall increase in
emissions increasing, particularly for natural gas and GHG emissions into several factors using the Kaya
crude oil. The consumption and emissions of solid fuels decomposition identity (4). Of these, the higher GDP
decreased in 2015 for the third consecutive year. The per capita played the biggest role (dark blue section) in
sustained increase in renewables, particularly biomass, bringing emissions up. Population also contributed to
wind and solar, offset otherwise higher emissions the increase in emissions (light blue section). The lower
in 2015. Hydro (due to a low rainfall) and nuclear energy intensity of GDP was the largest factor (yellow
electricity production declined in 2015. section) counterbalancing the increase in emissions,
as the economy required less primary energy per unit
In spite of the 2015 increase in emissions, there were of GDP. The carbon intensity of energy also improved
further improvements in the carbon intensity of the in 2015 (red section), which reflects the lower use of
(2) The current analysis focuses on GHG emission trends in the EU-28 and is based on Member States' GHG inventories reported to the EU by
8 May 2017. These inventories underpin the EU's GHG inventory submission to UNFCCC of end May.
(3) Approximated EU GHG inventory: proxy GHG estimates for 2015, www.eea.europa.eu/publications/approximated-eu-ghg-inventory-2015
(4) The chosen factors are an extension of the Kaya identity. The annual decomposition analysis shown in this paper is based on the Logarithmic
Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. The equation for the aggregated decomposition analysis is:
(y) [ln]GHG = (x1) [ln]POP + (x2) [ln]GDP/POP + (x3) [ln]PEC/GDP + (x4) [ln]GHG_en/PEC + (x5) [ln]GHG/GHG_en, where: (y) GHG: total GHG
emissions; (x1) POP: population (population effect); (x2) GDP/POP: GDP per capita (affluence effect); (x3) PEC/GDP: primary energy intensity
of the economy (primary energy intensity effect); (x4) GHG_en/PEC: energy-related GHG emissions in primary energy consumption (carbon
intensity effect); (x5) GHG/GHG_en: total GHG emissions in energy-related GHG emissions (non-combustion effect). The non-combustion effect
refers to how energy-related emissions (combustion and fugitives) behave compared to non-energy related emissions (industrial processes,
agriculture and waste sectors).
6 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
carbon intensive fuels like coal and an increase in The EU population increased by almost 2 million in
the consumption of natural gas and renewables. The 2015.
non-combustion factor (green section) shows that
emissions from non-energy sectors performed better ii. The increase in total GHG emissions was
(i.e. emissions actually decreased) than energy-related almost fully-driven by emission increases in the
emissions in 2015. energy sector, particularly in the residential and
commercial sectors as well as in the transport
Overall, the four main findings from the decomposition sector. As explained below this was due to higher
analysis of Figure 1.1 are: heat demand from the slightly colder winter
conditions in Europe in 2015 and by the increase in
i. The increase of 0.5 % in total GHG emissions came the consumption of diesel in road transportation
along with an increase in GDP of 2.2 % in 2015. (mostly passenger, but also freight). The weight of
The growth in GDP in 2015 was the largest since non-combustion emissions relative to
the economic crisis started in the second half of energy-related emissions decreased in 2015.
2008. This resulted in a lower emissions-intensity of Agriculture emissions increased modestly, whereas
GDP in the EU in 2015 and contributed to a further those from industrial processes and waste
decoupling of GHG emissions and economic growth. management decreased in 2015.
Figure 1.1 Decomposition of the annual change in total GHG emissions in the EU-28 in 2015
%
3
Total EU-28 GHG emissions, excluding
LULUCF, 1990-2015 (ktCO2 eq.)
6 000 000
2
5 500 000
2 5 000 000
4 500 000
1
4 000 000
0.5% 3 500 000
1
3 000 000
08
10
12
14
90
92
94
96
00
02
04
06
98
20
20
20
20
19
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
0
Non-combustion effect
–1
Carbon intensity of energy
Energy intensity of GDP
–1
GDP per capita
Population
–2
Total GHG
–2
2014-2015
Note: The explanatory factors should not be seen as independent of each other. The bar segments show the changes associated with each
factor alone, holding the respective other factors constant.
Source: EEA.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 7GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
iii. The lower carbon intensity of energy was a factor residential, commercial and institutional, and in road
counterbalancing otherwise higher emissions in transportation.
2015. This is in spite of a decline in hydro-electricity
and lower nuclear production compared to Heat consumption in the EU can be supplied via
2014. The lower carbon intensity is by and large distributed systems from thermal stations (reported
accounted for by a higher relative-contribution from under public electricity and heat production) and/or as
renewable energy sources (mostly biomass, wind a process of direct combustion in buildings (reported
and solar) as well as by an increase in the share of under residential and commercial/institutional). The
natural gas relative to coal in the fuel mix. According consumption and emissions of the residential and
to Eurostat, the share of renewable energy in gross commercial sectors reported in GHG inventories
final energy consumption (normalised to even out capture by and large the bulk of heat consumption and
the annual variability in hydro and wind production) emissions from fossil fuels. Emissions in these sectors
reached 16.7 % in 2015, up from 16.1 % the year increased by 4.9 % in 2015 yet 2015 had the second
before. Thus, a less carbon-intensive fuel-mix led to lowest heat consumption in the EU. This is because
an overall improvement of the carbon intensity of 2014 recorded the lowest ever heat consumption and
energy production and use in the EU in 2015. the highest average temperatures in Europe during
the previous 25 years. There was subsequently an
iv. The decrease in primary energy intensity was the increased demand for heating in 2015 compared to
largest offsetting factor to higher GHG emissions. 2014.
Total energy consumption increased but GDP
increased faster, leading to an improvement It is worth noting that emissions from public electricity
in the energy intensity of the EU economy as a and heat production decreased in 2015 even though
whole. Final energy increased almost twice as the production of both heat and electricity actually
fast as primary energy in 2015. The improvement increased that year. The main reason was lower use
in energy intensity was largely driven by lower of coal and increased use of gas and biomass, which
energy‑transformation losses and better energy led to an improvement of the carbon intensity of the
efficiency of the overall EU economy, with more power sector and resulted in lower emissions in spite
energy available for final consumption by the of increased output. The question is whether the
economic sectors per unit of primary energy. trigger for such increase in output was higher heat
consumption or electricity, or both.
1.3 Largest emission changes by sector GHG inventories provide evidence of the fuel input
at EU level and the emissions output from electricity and heat
production, but without distinguishing between
We now look deeper into the sectors accounting for emissions from heat and from electricity. According
the largest increase in emissions. Table 1.1 shows that to energy statistics reported to Eurostat, there was
the largest increases occurred in 'buildings', including an increase in both heat output and electricity output
Table 1.1 Overview of the largest emission changes by key sector in EU-28, 2014-2015
Source category Million tonnes (CO2 equivalents)
Public electricity and heat production (CO2 from 1.A.1.a) – 13.2
Refrigeration and air conditioning (HFCs from 2.F.1) – 5.0
Managed waste disposal sites (CH4 from 5.A.1) – 4.0
International aviation( CO2 from 1.D.1.a)* 5.0
Commercial/institutional (CO2 from 1.A.4.a) 5.6
Road transportation (CO2 from 1.A.3.b) 13.6
Residential (CO2 from 1.A.4.b) 19.5
Total 23.1
Note: The table shows only those sectors where emissions have increased or decreased by at least 3 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent between
2014 and 2015. The table reflects the emission reductions according to the EU's geographical scope under KP and includes Iceland
International aviation is not included in national totals under KP/UNFCCC but it is included under the EU internal scope. Iceland is
included in the former but not in the latter.
Source: EEA.
8 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
from conventional thermal power stations (including 2015. Road transport emissions increased by 1.6 % in
district heating) and this overall increase also applied 2015. The increase was fully accounted for by diesel
to the residential sector. In addition, electricity in some consumption, whereas gasoline emissions continued
countries is also used for heating purposes, so part of declining. About 70 % of the increase came from
the increase in electricity in 2015 may also be attributed passenger cars, 20 % from heavy duty vehicles, 4 %
to higher heat demand in these countries. from light duty vehicles and the remaining 1 % from
motorcycles.
The other key sector where emissions increased in
2015 was road transportation. It is the second largest International aviation is not included in national totals
source of emissions in the EU (after the power sector) under the Kyoto Protocol but it is integrated in the EU
and the positive trend of emission reductions observed internal scope and the 20 % 2020 target. Emissions
since 2007 was reversed in 2014 and confirmed in continued increasing in 2015.
Figure 1.2 Change in total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, between 2014 and 2015 by EU Member
State (kt CO2 equivalent)
Spain 11 447
Italy 9 701
Netherlands 7 663
Portugal 4 555
Bulgaria 3 978
France 3 641
Belgium 3 365
Hungary 3 212
Poland 2 874
Austria 2 469
Ireland 2 120
Czech Republic 1 309
Romania 1 014
Slovakia 592
Croatia 453
Lithuania 227
Slovenia 221
Latvia 109
Cyprus 7
Sweden – 146
Luxembourg – 487
Malta – 703
Germany – 2 331
Denmark – 2 470
Estonia – 3 041
Finland – 3 567
Greece – 3 638
United Kingdom – 19,422
– 25 000 – 20 000 – 15 000 – 10 000 – 5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000
Source: EEA.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 9GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
Perhaps one of the most positive developments in Italy, the main reasons were the strong increase in
2015 was the decrease in hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) gas consumption in the residential sector, due to
emissions from refrigeration and air conditioning, higher heat demand, as well as in the power sector.
which has halted the almost exponential increase of In the Netherlands, higher emissions were by and
these emissions since 1990. large the result of increased coal used for power
generation as well as of gas in the residential sector
due to colder winter conditions. Finally, the United
1.4 Largest Member State contributions Kingdom reported the largest decrease in emissions of
to the EU performance the EU in 2015, in spite of the colder winter. This was
primarily due to a strong reduction in coal use and
Figure 1.2 shows the absolute change in total GHG an increase in renewables and nuclear for electricity
emissions, excluding LULUCF, by Member States generation.
between 2014 and 2015. Emissions increased in
19 Member States, particularly in Spain, Italy and As shown in Section 1.3, the largest increases in
the Netherlands, and decreased in 9 Member States, emissions at EU level occurred in the residential and
mainly in the United Kingdom. commercial sectors and in road transportation.
A closer analysis at country level shows that the top
The main reasons for the increase in emissions in 10 contributors to the increase in GHG emissions in the
Spain are the substantial increase in coal for electricity EU in 2015 were: a) higher gas use in the residential
generation, the increase in the use of diesel for road sector in Italy, Germany, France and the United
transportation, particularly passenger cars, and the Kingdom; b) higher gas consumption in commercial and
higher use of gas in the commercial/institutional institutional sectors in Spain and Italy; and, c) higher
sector. GDP also went up strongly in 2015 and consumption of diesel for road transportation in
renewables decreased in terms of primary energy, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain and Poland. This is
mainly for hydro but also for wind and biogas. In shown in Table 1.2.
Table 1.2 Top 10 contributors to the total GHG emission increase in the EU in 2015
Ranking in top Member State Sector Gas Fuel Increase % total EU
10 (kt) (net) increase
1 Italy Residential CO2 Gaseous fuels 4 420 19.1 %
2 Germany Residential CO2 Gaseous fuels 3 574 15.4 %
3 Germany Road CO2 Diesel oil 3 121 13.5 %
transportation
4 United Road CO2 Diesel oil 3 058 13.2 %
Kingdom transportation
5 Spain Commercial/ CO2 Gaseous fuels 2 958 12.8 %
institutional
6 France Residential CO2 Gaseous fuels 2 657 11.5 %
7 United Residential CO2 Gaseous fuels 2 628 11.4 %
Kingdom
8 Spain Road CO2 Diesel oil 2 537 11.0 %
transportation
9 Poland Road CO2 Diesel oil 2 048 8.8 %
transportation
10 Italy Commercial/ CO2 Gaseous fuels 1 739 7.5 %
institutional
Sum of top 10 – – CO2 – 28 741 124.2 %
EU total net – all sectors GHG 23 137 100.0 %
reduction excluding
LULUCF
Note: Table 1.2 (at Member State level) builds from the three largest contributors to the net increase in EU GHG emissions from Table 1.1
(EU level). Other emission sources at Member State level may have increased by a larger amount but are not shown in Table 1.2
Source: EEA.
10 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
Clearly, there are strong indications that higher heat There is, however, evidence of significantly higher heat
demand and consumption was one of the determinants consumption and heat demand in the residential and
for the increase in emissions in 2015, not only in commercial sectors, as well as in the power sector,
the EU as a whole but also at Member State level. due to somewhat colder weather conditions in Europe
The other key determinant was road transportation during 2015 compared to 2014. The year 2014 was
which increased for the second year in a row. The the hottest year on record in Europe and the second
next sections will show that slightly colder winter hottest worldwide, whereas 2015 was the hottest year
conditions in 2015 and higher diesel consumption in worldwide and the second hottest in Europe. This
road transportation largely explain the increase of resulted in higher demand for heating in the EU in 2015.
23 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in the EU.
Based on data for Europe from the United Kingdom's
Met Office Hadley Centre, the average monthly
1.5 Weather conditions and road near-surface temperatures over land were lower in
transport drive emissions up most months where heating is usually needed (6).
Furthermore, according to Eurostat, there was a 3.4 %
A warm 2015 but slightly colder than 2014 increase in the number of heating degree days (an
indicator of household demand for heating) in the EU
The years 2014 and 2015 were jointly the warmest in 2015 compared to 2014. Thus, mean temperatures
years in Europe since instrumental records began (5). for Europe as well as heating degree days strongly
Figure 1.3 Mean near-surface temperature change between 2014 and 2015 in Europe: average
temperature of the season January, February, March, October, November and December
- °
-20° -1
10°
10°
0° 0°
° 1
10° 20°
0 60° 70°
0° Temperature in 2015
compared to 2014
ºC
– 2.70 to – 1.50
– 1.50 to – 1.00
60°
°
– 1.00 to – 0.75
– 0.75 to – 0.50
– 0.50 to – 0.25
– 0.25 to – 0.10
– 0.10 to 0.10
0.10 to 0.25
0.25 to 0.50
0.50 to 0.75
5
50° > 0.75
No data
Outside coverage
0 500 1000 1500km
20°
0 3
30° 4
40°
Source: EEA. Data source for the underpinning daily gridded temperatures, http://www.ecad.eu.
(5) Global and European temperature http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-3/
assessment.
(6) Data from other international sources, such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies
(NASA's GISS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Centre (NOAA's NCDC), also confirm average
colder conditions in Europe in 2015 compared to 2014.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 11GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
suggest that colder winter conditions in 2015 are Figure 1.3, which is based on daily gridded data
partly responsible for the increase in fuel use and (E-OBS) (7), illustrates the difference in average annual
emissions from buildings (residential, commercial near‑surface temperatures in Europe between 2014
and institutional) that year. This result is statistically and 2015. The map shows that, notwithstanding
significant on average for the EU, when considering regional variability, mean temperatures in many parts
the evolution of heating degree days (HDDs) and GHG of the continent were lower in 2015 compared to
emissions in 2015 in all Member States. 2014.
Table 1.3 Change in road transport emissions by vehicle type in 2015
Member Road Passenger Light duty Heavy duty Share of CO2 from road
States transportation cars trucks trucks and transport in total GHG
buses emissions
Luxembourg – 6.9 % – 4.4 % 2.4 % – 9.0 % 54.9 %
Sweden 0.3 % 1.2 % 0.6 % – 2.1 % 31.3 %
Slovenia – 0.4 % – 0.3 % – 0.1 % – 1.1 % 31.2 %
Austria 1.5 % 1.0 % 1.7 % 2.2 % 27.4 %
France 0.9 % 1.6 % 1.5 % – 1.6 % 27.1 %
Malta 5.1 % – – – 25.7 %
Latvia 7.2 % 7.5 % 6.5 % 6.7 % 25.2 %
Lithuania 6.0 % 5.1 % 1.6 % 8.0 % 23.9 %
Denmark 1.8 % 2.2 % 0.4 % 1.8 % 23.7 %
Spain 3.5 % 7.2 % 15.3 % – 9.4 % 23.3 %
Croatia 6.1 % 7.6 % 4.2 % 2.6 % 22.7 %
Italy – 2.3 % 0.2 % – 19.7 % 2.2 % 22.7 %
Portugal 1.0 % – 1.9 % – 1.6 % 11.2 % 22.3 %
United Kingdom 2.1 % 1.2 % 4.2 % 3.0 % 21.9 %
Belgium 6.9 % 6.7 % 9.0 % 6.7 % 21.7 %
Cyprus 3.9 % – – – 21.7 %
Hungary 9.6 % 7.7 % 7.9 % 14.0 % 19.3 %
Ireland 4.6 % 4.0 % 12.2 % – 0.6 % 18.7 %
Finland 0.7 % – – – 18.6 %
Germany 0.5 % – 1.8 % 1.1 % 5.4 % 17.0 %
Slovakia 3.1 % 33.1 % 20.6 % – 21.3 % 15.4 %
Greece 1.7 % – 0.7 % 19.8 % – 2.5 % 15.2 %
Netherlands 1.2 % 0.5 % 2.8 % 2.0 % 15.0 %
Bulgaria 10.9 % 10.7 % 13.7 % 9.7 % 14.3 %
Czech Republic 4.8 % 4.9 % – 4.7 % 13.3 %
Romania 0.5 % – 0.7 % 1.5 % 1.7 % 12.8 %
Estonia 2.4 % 5.5 % – 10.1 % – 0.7 % 12.2 %
Poland 5.4 % 6.0 % 0.6 % 6.4 % 11.6 %
EU-28 1.6 % 1.9 % 0.5 % 1.5 % 19.8 %
Note: Based on Member States' GHG inventory reporting to the EU and UNFCCC.
Source: EEA.
(7) The European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA) contains series of daily observations at meteorological stations throughout Europe and the
Mediterranean. E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D
project (http://www.ecad.eu). Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones, M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution
gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201.
12 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions in 2015 compared to 2014
Road transport emissions on the rise again in 2015 is also below the 2017 target of 175 g CO /km by 2017.
Car and van manufacturers will have to keep reducing
GHG emissions from road transportation increased emissions levels to meet the targets of 95 g CO2/km and
again in 2015, confirming the upward trend in 147 g CO2/km, respectively.
emissions that started in 2014 (Table 1.3). Emissions
went up by 1.6 % compared to the previous year mainly Finally, the EU's climate change mitigation policy
due to higher diesel consumption in passenger cars framework is based on a distinction between GHG
as well as from heavy duty and light duty vehicles. emissions from large industrial sources, which are
Road transport represents about 20 % of total GHG governed by the EU emissions trading system (ETS)
emissions in the EU, and about one third of emissions covering about 42 % of total GHG emissions, and
from the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. Thus, emissions from the sectors covered by the ESD and
transport emissions would need to fall significantly where national targets apply. With the exception of
if Member States are to meet their limitation targets electric vehicles, road transportation is not included
under the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) for non-trading under the EU ETS. Similarly, residential, commercial and
sectors by 2020 compared to 2005 (8). institutional (i.e. buildings) are by and large not covered
by the EU's trading system. The 0.5 % net increase
According to the latest report by the EEA (9) , the in emissions in 2015 was fully accounted for by the
average CO2 emissions level of new cars sold in 2015 non-trading sectors. ETS emissions from stationary
was 119.5 g CO2/km, well below the 2015 target of installations decreased by 0.7 %, whereas emissions
130 g CO2/km. The average emission of new light from the non-trading sectors increased by 1.4 % in
commercial vehicles in 2015 was 168.3 g CO2/km, which 2015.
(8) In 2009, the EU adopted legislation establishing emission performance requirements for new passenger cars, with the setting of a CO2 emission
target of 130 g CO2/km by 2015 and of 95 g CO2/km to be phased in from 2020. A more recent Regulation (EU) No 510/2011 introduced
mandatory CO2 emission performance standards for new vans, with a CO2 emission target of 175 g CO2/km by 2017 and of 147 g CO2/km
by 2020. A more recent Regulation (EU) No 510/2011 introduced mandatory CO2 emission performance standards for new vans, with a CO2
emission target of 175 g CO2/km by 2017 and of 147 g CO2/km by 2020.These targets refer to the average value for the fleet of newly registered
vans in the EU.
(9) 'CO2 emissions from cars and vans: all larger manufacturers met their 2015 targets', EEA. http://www.eea.europa.eu/highlights/co2-emissions-
from-cars-and.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 13GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
2 GHG emissions trends between 1990 and
2015
2.1 Summary (last 25 years) in the residential sector also represented one of the
largest reductions. Energy efficiency improvements
Total GHG emissions in the EU (excluding LULUCF) from better insulation standards in buildings and
decreased by 1 337 million tonnes since 1990 (or 23.7 % a less carbon‑intensive fuel mix can partly explain
reaching their lowest level during this period in 2014 lower demand for space heating in the EU as a whole
before increasing slightly in 2015 (4 310 Mt CO2 eq.). over the past 25 years. Since 1990 there has been
The reduction including international aviation was a gradual warming of the autumn/winter period in
22.1 % compared to 1990. There has been a progressive Europe; although there is high regional variability. The
decoupling of GDP and GHG emissions compared to very strong increase in the use of biomass for energy
1990, with an increase in GDP of about 50 % alongside a purposes has also contributed to lower GHG emissions
decrease in emissions of almost 24 % over the period. in the EU.
The reduction in GHG emissions over the 25‑year period In terms of the main GHGs, CO2 was responsible
was due to a variety of factors, including the growing for the largest reduction in emissions since 1990.
share in the use of renewables, the use of less carbon Reductions in emissions from N2O and CH4 have been
intensive fuels and improvements in energy efficiency, substantial, reflecting lower levels of mining activities,
as well as to structural changes in the economy and lower agricultural livestock, as well as lower emissions
the economic recession. Demand for energy to heat from managed waste disposal on land and from
households has also been lower, as Europe on average agricultural soils. A number of policies (both EU and
has experienced milder winters since 1990, which has country‑specific) have also contributed to the overall
also helped reduce emissions. reduction in GHG emissions, including key agricultural
and environmental policies in the 1990s and climate
GHG emissions decreased in the majority of sectors and energy policies in the 2000s.
between 1990 and 2015, with the notable exception
of transport, including international transport, and Almost all EU Member States reduced emissions
refrigeration and air conditioning. At the aggregate level, compared to 1990 and thus contributed to the overall
emission reductions were largest for manufacturing positive EU performance. The United Kingdom and
industries and construction, electricity and heat Germany accounted for about 48 % of the total net
production, and residential combustion. The largest reduction in the EU over the past 25 years.
decrease in emissions in relative terms was in waste
management (over 40 % reduction compared to 1990) In spite of good progress in reducing GHG emissions
intensity and decarbonising the EU economy, fossil
A combination of factors explains lower emissions in fuels still represent the largest source of energy and
industrial sectors, such as improved efficiency and emissions in the EU. There cannot be a complete
carbon intensity as well as structural changes in the decoupling of emissions from economic growth in a
economy, with a higher share of services and a lower fossil‑fuel economy since energy demand, by and large
share of more‑energy‑intensive industry in total GDP. driven by fossil fuels, remains connected to economic
The economic recession that began in the second half of growth. This also means the higher the contribution
2008 and continued through to 2009 also had an impact from renewable energy sources the easier it will be
on emissions from industrial sectors. Emissions from to break the link between economic growth, energy
electricity and heat production decreased strongly since demand and GHG emissions.
1990. In addition to improved energy efficiency there
has been a move towards less carbon intense fuels. 2.2 Overall results at EU level
Between 1990 and 2015, the use of solid and liquid fuels
in thermal stations decreased strongly whereas natural The Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to
gas consumption doubled, resulting in reduced CO2 keep global temperature rise to below 2 °C and to
emissions per unit of fossil energy generated. Emissions drive efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 °C
14 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
above pre-industrial levels. It is the first multilateral Figure 2.1 Total GHG emission trend in the
agreement on climate change covering almost all of EU‑28, 1990-2015
global emissions and is coherent with the EU's path
to a low carbon economy by 2050. Already in the past Total EU GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, (Kt CO2 eq.)
25 years, total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) in
6 000 000
the EU decreased substantially since 1990, reaching
their lowest level in 2014 (Figure 2.1). The EU emitted
5 500 000
4 310 million tonnes of CO2 eq. in 2015, which is 23.7 %
less than in 1990, and currently accounts for less than
5 000 000
8 % of global GHG emissions.
4 500 000
Figure 2.2 shows total GHG emissions, GDP in constant
prices and the GHG intensity of the economy during
4 000 000
the period 1990‑2015, for the EU, the US and China. In
all three regions, the GHG emissions intensity of the
3 500 000
overall economy decreased over the 25-year period.
In the EU, and using standard terminology, there was
3 000 000
an absolute decoupling of emissions from economic
90
95
00
05
10
15
growth, whereas in both the US and China there was
19
19
20
20
20
20
a relative decoupling, with emissions increasing less
rapidly than economic growth. Source: EEA.
Figure 2.2 GHG emissions, GDP and intensity in the EU, US and China
Emissions and the economy, 1990-2015
%
1 000 974 %
Per capita emissions (2015)
800 % of world emissions (2015)
900
30
23.7
700
19.7
600 20
11.4
500 9.6 8.5 7.7
10
400
300 0
239 %
200 China US EU
83 %
100
50 %
4%
0
– 24 %
– 100 – 43 % – 49 %
– 68 %
– 200
China United States European Union
Total GHG emissions Total GDP (constant prices) GHG emissions intensity
Note: GHG emissions intensity is defined as total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF divided by total GDP in constant prices. Per capita
emissions is measured in tonnes of CO2 equivalent per person.
Source: EEA, based on data from EEA, JRC's EDGAR, Eurostat, UNPD and DG ECFIN's AMECO.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 15GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
EU's per capita emissions stood at about 12 tonnes Overall, the four main findings from the decomposition
of CO2 eq. in 1990 and went down to 8.5 tonnes of analysis of Figure 2.3 are (11):
CO2 eq. in 2015. The average EU citizen emits about
8.5 t CO2‑equivalent (excluding LULUCF), which is above
Figure 2.3 Decomposition of the cumulative
the world average of approximately 7.6 t CO2 equivalent
changes in total GHG emissions in the
per person, just below China's 9.6 t CO2 eq. and
EU-28 in three different periods: the
well below per capita emissions in the United States 1990s, the 2000s before the recession,
(19.7 t CO2 eq.). GHG emissions per capita also vary and post-2008
widely between European countries, mainly reflecting
differences in the fuel mix for the conversion of primary GHG emissions
fuels to heat and electricity (see Table 2.5 in Section 2.6).
30
Figure 2.3 breaks down the 25-year 24 % overall
reduction in GHG emissions, for the three different
periods, into several factors using the Kaya 20
decomposition identity (10). In the first period
(1990‑2000) the overall reduction of GHG emissions
from fossil fuel energy use was 8.7 %. Of this, lower
10
energy intensity of GDP played the biggest role (yellow
section) in bringing emissions down, as the economy
required less energy per unit of GDP. The carbon
intensity of energy also improved during this period, 0
which reflects the lower use of more carbon‑intensive
– 2.3 %
fuels such as coal, and a switch to less carbon intensive 8.7 %
fuels such as gas or renewables. The reduction in
– 10
emissions from non‑combustion sectors, such as – 14.4 %
agriculture, industrial processes and waste also
contributed to the overall positive trend. These three
factors driving emissions down were partially offset by – 20
higher population and by higher GDP per capita. The
second period (2000‑2008) was also characterised by -
high economic growth and lower GHG emissions. The 8.3%
– 30
reduction in GHG emissions was lower (2.3 %) than
during the 1990s, as the improvement in the carbon
intensity slowed due to less substantial reductions in
coal use and declining nuclear production. In the third – 40
1990-2000 2000-2008 2008-2015
period (2008‑2015), the GDP per capita factor was less
determinant. Indeed, as the economy and industrial Non-combustion effect GDP per capita
production first contracted and then somewhat
Carbon intensity of energy Population
recovered, GDP had a small negative effect on
emissions and partly offset an otherwise larger decline. Energy intensity of GDP Total GHG
Of the 14.4 % overall decrease in GHG emissions from
fossil fuel use, energy intensity and carbon intensity Note: The explanatory factors should not be seen as independent
of each other. The bar segments show the changes
played the biggest role bringing emissions down. The associated with each factor alone, holding the respective
reduction in energy‑related emissions in this last period other factors constant.
was stronger than for non‑combustion sectors. Source: EEA.
(10) The chosen factors are an extension of the Kaya identity. The annual decomposition analysis shown in this paper is based on the Logarithmic
Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. The equation for the aggregated decomposition analysis is:
(y) [ln]GHG = (x1) [ln]POP + (x2) [ln]GDP/POP + (x3) [ln]PEC/GDP + (x4) [ln]GHG_en/PEC + (x5) [ln]GHG/GHG_en, where:
(y) GHG: total GHG emissions; (x1) POP: population (population effect); (x2) GDP/POP: GDP per capita (affluence effect); (x3) PEC/GDP:
primary energy intensity of the economy (primary energy intensity effect); (x4) GHG_en/PEC: energy-related GHG emissions in primary energy
consumption (carbon intensity effect); (x5) GHG/GHG_en: total GHG emissions in energy-related GHG emissions (non-combustion effect). The
non-combustion effect refers to how energy-related emissions (combustion, and fugitives) behave compared to non-energy related emissions
(industrial processes, agriculture and waste sectors).
( ) When interpreting the results from this decomposition analysis, there are certain conclusions that should not be automatically assumed. For
11
example the factors not linked to changes in GDP should not automatically be linked to policies or other factors which are assumed to be
independent from the economy. In addition, recession is broader than GDP, and there is a recession effect in 'energy intensity' (e.g. lower fuel
use by industry), or in 'carbon intensity' (e.g. if recession affected relative fuel prices).
16 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
i. Emissions decreased with increasing GDP (per and 2008‑2015 is by and large accounted
capita) during all periods considered (1990‑2000, for by a higher contribution from renewable
2000‑2008, and 2008‑2015). This shows that energy sources in the fuel mix. In the 1990s,
emissions can decrease with a growing economy. renewables, although still positive, contributed
But it also suggests that emissions may decrease less to emissions reductions compared to nuclear;
faster with a stagnating economy, and/or a declining however, the largest factor of emission reductions
economy as concluded by previous EEA work (12). was the switch between more carbon-intensive
The economic recession has resulted in substantial coal to less carbon intensive gas.
emission reductions in the last of the three periods
referred to, particularly until 2013. iii. The decrease in primary energy intensity was the
largest contributing factor to lower CO2 emissions
ii. The lower carbon intensity of energy was a key from fossil fuel combustion in all three periods. In
factor underpinning lower emissions in all three the period 2008-2015, total energy consumption
periods. This factor has been stronger in the decreased while GDP increased, leading to an
period 2008‑2015 than in the period 2000‑2008, improvement in the emissions intensity of energy
despite a decline in nuclear electricity production. production and use. The economic recession partly
The lower carbon intensity during both 2005‑2008 explains lower energy demand from industry and
Table 2.1 Key statistics for the variables used in the decomposition analysis of Figure 2.3
2000/1990 2008/2000 2015/2008 Annual average Annual average Annual average
2000/1990 2008/2000 2015/2008
Original variables
Total GHG – 8.7 % – 2.3 % – 14.4 % – 0.9 % – 0.3 % – 2.2 %
(million tonnes)
POP (millions) 2.5 % 2.7 % 1.6 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.2 %
GDP (Mrd EUR 24.1 % 17.7 % 2.9 % 2.2 % 2.1 % 0.4 %
at 2005 market
prices)
Total primary 3.7 % 4.3 % – 9.9 % 0.4 % 0.5 % – 1.5 %
energy supply (TJ)
GHG energy – 7.7 % – 0.7 % – 15.6 % – 0.8 % -0.1 % -2.4 %
(million tonnes)
Decomposition analysis (factors):
ln(total GHG) = ln(POP) + ln(GDP/POP) + ln(PEC/GDP) + ln(GHG energy/PEC) + ln(total GHG/GHG energy)
Total GHG – 8.7 % – 2.3 % – 14.4 % – 0.9 % – 0.3 % – 2.2 %
(million tonnes)
Population 2.3 % 2.7 % 1.5 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.6 %
GDP per capita 18.3 % 13.4 % 1.2 % 1.1 % 0.9 % 3.1 %
Primary energy – 17.1 % – 11.9 % – 12.3 % – 1.1 % – 0.8 % – 3.6 %
intensity
Carbon intensity – 11.2 % – 4.9 % – 6.1 % – 1.0 % – 0.5 % – 2.0 %
(energy sector)
Non-combustion – 1.0 % – 1.6 % 1.3 % – 0.1 % – 0.1 % – 0.2 %
Note: The decomposition analysis used in Figure 2.3 and Table 2.1 are based on an extension of the original IPAT and Kaya identities, which
are often used to illustrate the primary forces of emissions. The most important limitation from this method is that the relationship
between the variables in the equation is true by definition, allowing no country-specific variation and assuming independence between
the different factors. Therefore, one should avoid over-interpretation of the different effects. However, decomposition analysis can
point to interesting findings, which can be explored further using other methods. The table shows the results of the multiplicative
decomposition analysis where the factors are (almost) additive. For example, the carbon intensity factor contributed to 5.9 percentage
points to the 14.4% reduction in GHG emissions in EU-28 between 2008 and 2015 [or 41 % of the total net reduction in GHG emissions].
Source: EEA.
(12) See Section 7 'The role of economic growth and recession in GHG emission reductions in the EU' of 'Why did GHG emissions decrease in the EU
between 1990 and 2012', published in 2014 http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/why-are-greenhouse-gases-decreasing.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 17GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
road transportation since 2008. However, energy were manufacturing industries and construction
intensity also decreased in the periods 1990-2000 (CO2), public electricity and heat production (CO2), and
and 2000-2008 where energy demand was high. residential combustion (CO2). The sectors and gases
Lower energy intensity of GDP can be explained by with the largest increases over the period were road
improvements in energy efficiency (transformation transportation (CO2) and the consumption of HFCs in
and end-use) and the strong uptake of renewables, industrial processes. CO2 emissions from international
as well as by changes in the structure of the aviation and shipping also increased very rapidly during
economy and a higher share of the services sector the 25-year period, although these emissions are
compared to the more energy intensive industrial excluded from the Kyoto targets.
sector.
The largest emission reductions in the EU with
iv. The largest emission reductions occurred in the 373 million tonnes of CO2 eq. were achieved in the
energy combustion sector. Contributions from other production of electricity and heat. Emissions from
sectors, particularly industrial processes, waste and electricity and heat production decreased strongly
agriculture have also been important. In the last since 1990. The improvement in the transformation
period, non-energy emissions decreased, though at efficiency has to be seen in the context of lower heat
a lower rate than energy-related. production and higher electricity production between
1990 and 2015. In addition to improved energy
In addition to the reduction of the energy intensity efficiency there has been a move towards less carbon
of GDP there has been a substantial improvement of intensive fuels at the EU level. Between 1990 and 2015,
the GHG emissions intensity of the EU economy as the use of solid and liquid fuels in thermal stations
a whole. Emissions per GDP decreased substantially decreased strongly whereas natural gas consumption
in all Member States during the 25‑year period. doubled, resulting in reduced CO2 emissions per
This improvement came along with a significant unit of fossil energy generated (16). The steady and
convergence of GHG emission intensities across significant increase in biomass use for electricity and
Member States, both per capita and per GDP (13). One heat production has also served as a substitute for
reason for this convergence has been the extraordinary fossil fuels. This improvement in the carbon intensity
growth in renewables in most Member States and a of combustible fuels, with the switch from coal and
clear move towards less carbon intensive fuels. oil to natural gas and biomass, is only part of the
story. Some renewables can produce electricity by
Table 2.1 above summarises the growth rates means of mechanical energy without any combustion.
in the original variables and factors used in the The very strong increase in other renewables, such
decomposition analysis for the periods 1990‑2000, as wind power, has led to both an improvement
2000‑2008 and 2008‑2015 for the EU‑28 (14). in transformation efficiency of the whole energy
system and a positive contribution to the reduction
in emissions. Nuclear generation of electricity has
2.3 Largest emission changes by sector increased since 1990 although its share in total
at EU level electricity production has fallen since 2005. This sector
remains the largest contributor to GHG emissions in
Table 2.2 shows the largest emission changes by key the EU. This trend could revert if gas prices become
source in the EU‑28 between 1990 and 2015. GHG more attractive compared to coal. A higher carbon
emissions decreased in the majority of sectors between price (or prospects for it) should also affect the relative
1990 and 2015, with the notable exception of transport, demand of coal to gas for power generation in the EU.
including international transport. The sectors and Currently about 76 % of emissions from power plants
gases (15) explaining the largest decreases for EU‑28 come from coal, compared to 17 % for gas.
(13) This convergence has been calculated on the basis of GDP in purchasing power standards and refers to the reduction in the coefficient of
variation of Member States' GHG emissions intensities.
(14) Looking forward, an interesting policy question is whether the same key factors driving emission reductions in the past, such as the lower
GHG intensity of the economy and the improvements in the carbon intensity of the energy system, are expected to play a key role reducing
emissions in the future.
(15) Overall, emissions from CO2 (81 % of total GHG emissions in 2015) decreased by 22 % since 1990 and accounted for 72 % of the total net
reduction in GHG emissions in the EU-28 between 1990 and 2015. N2O emissions (5 % of the total in 2015) decreased by 39 %, and accounted
for 11 % of the net reduction, whereas CH4 emissions (11 % of the total) fell by 37 % and represented 20 % of the total reduction. F-gases
(almost 3 % of the total) actually increased by 64 % over the 25-year period.
(16) The implied emission factor for coal and lignite (combined) in the EU-28 in 2015 was on average 101 tonnes of CO2 equivalent per terajoule in
2015. The emission factor for liquid fuels was 78 t CO2/Tj and for gaseous fuels it was 56 t CO2/Tj. This means that coal releases around 80 %
more CO2 than gas to deliver the same amount of energy.
18 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
Table 2.2 Overview of the largest emission changes by key source in the EU, 1990-2015
Source category Million tonnes (CO2 equivalents)
Road transportation (CO2 from 1.A.3.b) 142
Refrigeration and air conditioning (HFCs from 2.F.1) 97
International aviation (CO2 from 1.D.1.a)* 73
International navigation (CO2 from 1.D.1.b)* 25
Fugitive emissions from natural gas (CH4 from 1.B.2.b) – 21
Aluminium production (PFCs from 2.C.3) – 21
Agricultural soils: direct N2O emissions from managed soils – 26
(N2O from 3.D.1)
Cement production (CO2 from 2.A.1) – 28
Fluorochemical production (HFCs from 2.B.9) – 29
Commercial/institutional (CO2 from 1.A.4.a) – 43
Enteric fermentation: cattle (CH4 from 3.A.1) – 44
Nitric acid production (N2O from 2.B.2) – 45
Adipic acid production (N2O from 2.B.3) – 57
Manufacture of solid fuels and other energy industries – 62
(CO2 from 1.A.1.c)
Coal mining and handling (CH4 from 1.B.1.a) – 67
Managed waste disposal sites (CH4 from 5.A.1) – 78
Iron and steel production (CO2 from 1.A.2.a +2.C.1) – 106
Residential: fuels (CO2 from 1.A.4.b) – 126
Manufacturing industries (excl. iron and steel) (energy-related – 279
CO2 from 1.A.2 excl. 1.A.2.a)
Public electricity and heat production (CO2 from 1.A.1.a) – 373
Total – 1 336
Note: The table shows only those sectors where emissions have increased or decreased by at least 20 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent
between 1990 and 2015. Emissions from manufacturing and construction decreased by 353 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent between
1990 and 2015. The distinction with iron and steel responds to internal consistency issues of the EU inventory and reflects different
reporting of activity data by Member States. International transport emissions (from aviation and shipping) are not included in the GHG
total under the Kyoto Protocol. The table reflects emission changes according to the EU's geographical scope under the KP and includes
Iceland.
Source: EEA.
Manufacturing and construction was the second largest industry in total GDP. Trade is also important for
source of emission reductions in absolute terms in the understanding GHG emission trends. While Europe may
EU between 1990 and 2015 (353 million t CO2 eq.) (17). be indirectly generate some of the emissions elsewhere
A combination of factors explain lower emissions — exported EU emissions — a share of Europe's own
in industrial sectors, such as improved efficiency emissions can be traced to consumption of European
in restructured iron and steel plants, substantial goods in some of Europe's main trading partners —
improvements in the carbon intensity, with emissions imported EU emissions (18). The energy and carbon
from solid fuels more than halving in 25 years, and intensity of the production of goods and services will
structural changes of the economy with a higher share by and large determine the real shares of exported and
of services and a lower share of more-energy-intensive imported emissions. Finally, the economic recession
(17) In 2012, the EEA published the technical report 'End-user GHG emissions from energy: Reallocation of emissions from energy industries to
end users 2005‑2010'. The report's objective was to help improve understanding of past GHG emission trends in the energy sector from the
demand or end-user side. To do this, the report developed a methodology to redistribute emissions from energy industries to the final users
(by sector) of that energy. This reallocation is done on the basis of Eurostat's energy balances and GHG inventories for the energy sector, as
reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), for the period 2005‑2010.
(18) Climate change - driving forces, Eurostat 2017 http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Climate_change_-_driving_forces.
Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015 19GHG emissions trends between 1990 and 2015
that began in the second half of 2008 and continued of Montreal Protocol CFCs, both ozone-depleting
through to 2009 also had a substantial impact on substances and potent GHGs, led to new substitutes
emissions from this sector. and their replacement with Kyoto Protocol HFCs. HFCs
are used in the production of cooling devices such
Emissions in the residential sector decreased by as air conditioning systems and refrigerators and
126 million t CO2 eq. between 1990 and 2015 and the increase is consistent with both warmer climatic
represented the third largest reduction. Energy conditions in Europe (i.e. summers) and higher
efficiency improvements from better insulation standards of comfort demanded by citizens. After the
standards in buildings and a less carbon-intensive fuel 2016 amendment under the Montreal Protocol signed
mix can explain lower demand for space heating in the in Kigali, countries committed to cut the production
EU as a whole over the past 25 years. These factors and consumption of these group of gases by over
have more than offset the effects of a population 80 % over the next 30 years. HFCs are regulated under
increase of 33 million, and in the number and average both the Kyoto Protocol and the Montreal Protocol.
size of households in the EU. Emissions from the
residential sector fluctuate according to weather Figure 2.4 shows GHG emissions by sources and sinks
conditions and heat demand. The years 2014 and in the EU-28 between 1990 and 2015. The top chart
2015 were the hottest years on record in Europe with shows the emissions by sector over the 25-year period
mean annual land temperatures about 2 °C above for the EU-28. The effect of the economic recession
the pre‑industrial average. In the last 25 years since is clearly visible in energy supply and industry from
1990 there has been a warming of the winter/autumn 2008 onwards. The downward emission trend in the
months in Europe which has partly contributed to residential and commercial sectors fluctuates over the
lower heat demand by households and therefore to time series, generally reflecting the effect of warmer
lower GHG emissions (see Figure 2.9). or colder winters on heat demand. In the case of
transport, emissions increased substantially until
On the negative side, CO2 emissions from road 2007 and have declined somewhat in the past years,
transportation increased by 142 million tonnes in although they increased again in 2014 and 2015.
the 25-year period. Emissions increased steadily
between 1990 and 2007, decreased up to 2013 and Of all trends, perhaps the most interesting ones are
increased again in 2015. The overall net increase the increase in emissions from international aviation
was fully accounted for by a strong uptake of diesel and international shipping as well as the stark
and a decline in gasoline use. Energy efficiency increase in CO2 emissions from biomass. The increase
improvements and to a lesser extent increased in these three emission sources is more visible from
use of less carbon intensive fuels, such as liquefied the bottom chart. What they have in common is the
petroleum gas (LPG) and biofuel blends, have led to fact that neither of them are included in national GHG
levels of road transport emissions that would have totals and are excluded from Kyoto targets (depicted
been otherwise higher. The economic recession that by the red bars), and that their emissions have
started in 2008 has also contributed to lower road increased more than the sectors included in national
transport emissions (for freight and passenger) in the GHG totals (depicted by the blue bars).
last years. Despite these improvements in efficiency
and carbon intensity, demand has grown substantially Emissions from international aviation and maritime
and road transport still represented about 20 % of transport are not relevant for Kyoto compliance. They
total GHG emissions in the EU in 2015. Transport are reported in GHG inventories as 'Memorandum
roughly represents about one third of emissions from items' and are therefore not included in national GHG
the sectors not covered by the EU ETS. Thus, transport totals. Contributions from international aviation and
emissions would need to fall significantly if Member shipping increased by 97 million tonnes between 1990
States are to meet their limitation targets under the and 2015. Together, the two sectors in 2015 accounted
Effort Sharing Decision for non-trading sectors by for about 6 % of total EU GHG emissions. Emissions
2020 compared to 2005. from international aviation have been included in the
EU ETS since 2012. A decision on the inclusion of GHG
The second largest increase came from emissions from international maritime transport has
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) used in refrigeration and not been taken so far.
air conditioning (97 million tonnes of CO2 eq.). HFCs
were the only group of gases for which emissions CO2 emissions from biomass combustion increased
increased since 1990 and accounted for 2.5 % of total by 332 million between 1990 and 2015, highlighting
EU GHG emissions in 2015. This increase has been a the rapidly increasing importance of bioenergy in
side effect from the implementation of the Montreal replacing fossil fuel sources. In addition, net removals
Protocol on ozone depleting substances. The banning from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF)
20 Analysis of key trends and drivers in greenhouse gas emissions in the EU between 1990 and 2015You can also read
