Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
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Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report
The Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
2019 National Labour Market Information Report 364-440 Laurier Avenue West
Prepared for the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum Ottawa ON K1R 7X6
Author: Prism Economics and Analysis Email: info@caf-fca.org
The opinions expressed in this report are those of the Website: www.caf-fca.org
authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CAF-FCA. Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Copyright May 2019
ISBN#: 978-0-9808913-3-1
Contents
1.0 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.0 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.0 National Trends in Apprenticeship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.1 Economic and Population Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
3.2 Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
3.3 Trends in Apprenticeship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3.4 Provincial Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
3.5 Trade Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3.6 Outcome Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4.0 C
ertification Requirements and Completions:
A National Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.1 Workforce Certification Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
4.2 Future Supply of New Journeypersons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.0 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
List of Figures
Figure 1: Summary of Projected New Registrations,Target Registrations Figure 19: Completion Rate (%) within 1.5x Program Duration by
and Certification Requirements, by Province, 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Trade, 2008 and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 2: Summary of Projected Completions,Target Registrations and Figure 20: Average Completion Rates, Top 10 Red Seal Trades by
Certification Requirements, by Trade, 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Province 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 3: Top 10 Red Seal Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Figure 21: Median Time to Certification within 1.5x Program Duration,
Figure 4: Real GDP Growth (%) Canada, 2013 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Canada, 2008 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Figure 5: Average Annual Real GDP Growth, by Province, 2019 to 2023 . 10 Figure 22: Income and Percent Change after Completion, 2008-2014. . . . . 22
Figure 6: Employment Change by Sector (%) 2013 to 2018, 2019 to 2023.11 Figure 23: Median Employment Income ($) at Certification and 2 years
after Certification, 2008 to 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 7: Population Growth (%), Canada, 2016 to 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 24: Trends in Apprenticeship Program Registrations and
Figure 8: Share of the Population aged 65 and over by Province, Completions, Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2008 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2019 and 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 25: Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Figure 9: New Registrations, Completions and Employment in Top between 2019 and 2023 by Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
10 Red Seal Trades, Canada, 2000 to 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Figure 26: Total Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal
Figure 10: Change (%) in New Registrations by Province,Top 10 Red Trades between 2019 and 2023 by Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Seal Trades, 2014 to 2017, Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories). 14
Figure 27: Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Figure 11: Distribution (%) of New Registrations by Province, 2017 . . . . . . 14 between 2019 and 2023 by Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 12: Distribution (%) of New Registrations by Province, 2014, 2017. . 14 Figure 28: Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Figure 13: New Apprenticeship Registrations by Trade, 2014 to 2017. . . . 15 by Province, Historic (2013 to 2018) and Projected (2019 to 2023). . . . . . . . 26
Figure 14: Change (%) in Average Annual New Registrations by Trade, Figure 29: Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal
2011 to 2014, and 2014 to 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Trades, Historic (2013 to 2018) and Projected (2019 to 2023) . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure 15: Trends in New Registrations and Completion, 2003 to 2018, Figure 30: Average Total Completions in the Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 by Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 16: Distribution of Completions by Provinces, 2011 to 2012, Figure 31: Average Annual Certification Demand by Red Seal Trade,
Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Canada, 2013 to 2018 and 2019 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Figure 17: Change in Completions, 2011 to 2012, Canada (excluding Figure 32: Average Annual Registration Targets by Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Quebec and the Territories). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 33: Projected Registrations, Projected Completions,
Figure 18: Percent Change (%) in Program Completions, Canada Certifications Required and Target Registrations by Province. . . . . . . . . . 29
(excluding Quebec and the Territories), 2011 to 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Figure 34: Projected Registrations, Projected Completions,
Certifications Required and Target Registrations by Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
About the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
The Canadian Apprenticeship Forum – Forum canadien sur
l’apprentissage (CAF-FCA) is a national, not-for-profit organization
working with stakeholders in all regions of Canada. We influence pan-
Canadian apprenticeship strategies through research, discussion and
collaboration. We share insights across trades, across sectors and
across the country. We do this in order to promote apprenticeship as an
effective model for training and education.
Our Board of Directors is comprised of representatives from business,
labour, the jurisdictional apprenticeship authorities, education and
equity-seeking groups. Through our work, CAF-FCA has shed light on
a number of key issues affecting apprenticeship, such as the perceived
barriers to accessing and completing apprenticeship, and the business
case for apprenticeship training. For more information, visit the CAF-FCA
website at www.caf-fca.org.
4 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
About the Author
Prism Economics and Analysis (Prism) is an established labour market
economics consultancy firm specializing in the analysis of labour
markets and human resource planning issues. Prism works with
employers, governments, post-secondary institutions, trade unions
and professional associations to deliver reliable research that provides
practical human resource solutions.
Prism’s in-depth knowledge of labour market structures,
apprenticeship and training systems, sources, people, institutions,
regulations and policies leads to credible and practical research.
Prism understands the different interests and perspectives of
stakeholder groups and carefully balances its analysis and reporting
to respect and reconcile these interests.
Prism developed the Canadian System for Tracking Apprenticeship
Qualifications (CANTRAQ) to track demand requirements and supply
of trade certifications. CAF-FCA supported the development of the
methodology and continues to work in collaboration with Prism to better
understand apprentice supply and demand.
Intellectual Copyright
The intellectual copyright for the CANTRAQ system belongs to Prism.
This report is the intellectual copyright of CAF-FCA and must be properly
referenced if cited. Please refer to the report on CAF-FCA’s Reports and
Resources page.
Funder Acknowledgement
This project is funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral
Initiatives Program.
The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada.
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 5
1.0
Executive Summary
This report draws together apprenticeship trends Another challenge is the risk of skilled trades
data and projections from the Canadian System for shortages over the long-term due to the decline
Tracking Apprenticeship Qualifications (CANTRAQ) in new apprentices since 2014, and the potential
to provide a forward-looking assessment of demand erosion of training capacity. Annual new
and supply for trade certification across the top 10 registrations in the 10 largest Red Seal trades
Red Seal trades in Canada. National, provincial and contracted by 20% between 2014 and 2017, or
trade-specific assessments of demand and supply by 7,100 fewer new registrants. The decline can
projections are also provided. be directly attributed to the collapse in oil and
resource prices in 2014 and subsequent declines
From 2019 to 2023, an estimated 67,000 new in investments in the resource sector. The impact
journeypersons will be required to sustain workforce of declines in resource sector investment related
certification levels across the 10 largest Red Seal to apprenticeship was felt strongest in Alberta,
trades in Canada, excluding Quebec and the where new registrations dropped by 50%,
Territories. Although the pace of employment growth followed by Saskatchewan, where it dropped
in many skilled trades is expected to slow compared by 40%, and Newfoundland and Labrador,
to the rapid expansion over the last decade, where it dropped by 35%. The 2008 to 2009
workforce retirements continue to rise. Keeping pace recession had a similar negative impact on new
with the demand for skills and workforce certification registrations resulting in a 23% drop in them in
will require attracting 167,739 new apprentices over 2009, but the decline in 2009 was followed by a
the next five years. relatively quick recovery. There is no evidence,
however, of a similar recovery this time round. A
An anticipated shift in demand between regions
downward trend in the annual number of newly
and sectors will require a redistribution of training
certified journeypersons poses potential risks for
certification requirements and, therefore, shared
the future availability of skilled tradespersons as
training resources among trades and provinces. The
Canada’s skilled workforce continues to age and
anticipated slowdown in the pace of construction
retirement rates accelerate.
employment is likely to result in decreased demand
from current levels for some trades, such as An additional risk is a decline in the number of
construction electricians and plumbers, and increased youth entering the workforce as a share of the
requirements for others, such as millwrights, welders population. This is due to aging demographics
and cooks. and the rise in competing demands from other
sectors of the economy facing common supply
challenges. Over the next five years, growth in
IT and service sector jobs is expected to outpace
several sectors that employ large numbers of
skilled tradespeople. Health services-related
employment in particular is expected to continue
to lead job growth in Canada, especially in
provinces with older populations.
6 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Based on the CANTRAQ analysis, Figure 1 below provides a summary of the number of new
journeypersons required and the targets for the total number of new apprentices likely needed to
meet these requirements by province over the period 2019 to 2023. Figure 2 compares projected
completions, target registrations and certification requirements by trade over the same period,
2019 to 2023.
Figure 1- Summary of Projected New Registrations, Target Registrations and Certification Requirements,
by Province, 2019 to 2023
PROVINCE CERTIFICATIONS REQUIRED TARGET REGISTRATIONS
British Columbia 13,964 49,788
Alberta 18,957 48,244
Saskatchewan 3,557 6,462
Manitoba 1,895 5,510
Ontario 24,280 46,413
Atlantic Canada 4,329 11,376
Total 66,982 167,793
Figure 2- Summary of Projected Completions, Target Registrations and Certification Requirements, by
Trade, 2019 to 2023
PROJECTED CERTIFICATIONS TARGET
RANK TRADE
COMPLETIONS REQUIRED REGISTRATION
Cook 2,607 4,990 21,358
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) 5,561 7,336 8,658
Welder 5,026 6,301 16,444
Heavy Duty Equipment Technician 4,408 4,610 8,253
Carpenter 7,477 7,466 34,900
Steamfitter/Pipefitter 2,960 2,718 4,872
Automotive Service Technician 9,952 8,754 19,908
Hairstylist 9,312 7,233 21,512
Construction Electrician 24,831 13,279 22,286
Plumber 8,872 4,296 9,602
Total 81,006 66,982 167,793
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 7
2.0
Introduction
The objective of this report is to provide The second section of this report provides a forward-
apprenticeship stakeholders with an analysis of looking assessment of apprenticeship program
apprenticeship trends and projections of training registrations, completions and workforce certification
requirements in the top 10 Red Seal trades. requirements for the five-year period 2019 to 2023.
The first section of the report provides an analysis The projections and analysis are informed by recent
of national and provincial trends in apprenticeship provincial economic forecasts and sectoral labour
registrations and completion rates based on the market studies, including the 2019 BuildForce Canada
latest available data (2017) from Statistics Canada’s Construction and Maintenance Outlook, and provincial
Registered Apprenticeship Information System macroeconomic and occupational hiring projections
(RAIS). The section also provides a summary of the produced by the Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE).
economic and population growth outlook and other The detailed qualification-based analysis for individual
factors which are likely to impact the demand and trade programs is based on CANTRAQ.
supply for trade certification and apprenticeship
training in Canada.
Figure 3- Top 10 Red Seal Programs
RAIS compiles data from the
provinces and territories based RED SEAL TRADE NOC 4
on the number of individuals 1 Construction Electrician 7,241
registered in apprenticeship 2 Carpenter 7,271
programs and those who
obtain certification. CAF-FCA’s 3 Welder 7,237
report provides statistics and 4 Steamfitter/Pipefitter 7,252
analysis of the trends in new 5 Automotive Service Technician 7,321
registrations and completions 6 Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) 7,311
in the top 10 Red Seal
apprenticeable programs across 7 Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician 7,312
Canada, excluding Quebec and 8 Plumber 7,251
the Territories.1 9 Cook 6,322
10 Hairstylist 6,341
8 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
3.0
National Trends in
Apprenticeship
3.1 Economic and
Population Outlook
This section describes economic and population
trends and other factors likely to impact the demand
and supply for trade certification and apprenticeship
training in Canada. Economic conditions and
fluctuations in employment are among the chief
determinants of apprenticeship program registrations
and completions. Since employment is a precondition
of an apprenticeship, this form of post-secondary
education is distinct from college or university and
is typically extremely sensitive to the ebb and flow
of economic cycles. The correlation is positive with
rising employment translating into higher program
registrations and increased completions.2 Periods
of rapid expansion in employment requirements,
however, can result in a decrease of available
resources to take on and mentor apprentices. Tighter
labour market conditions can lower employers’
qualification requirements and also dissuade workers
from seeking a formal apprenticeship due to the
opportunity cost associated with attending technical
training or lower earnings. During these periods
of economic growth, employers will tend to hire
from the pool of available (unemployed) skilled and
experienced workers first, rather than take on less-
experienced new entrants.
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 9
Economic cycles tend to result in significant The pace of economic expansion slowed to 2.1%
fluctuations in annual program registrations. These in 2018, after surpassing a G7-leading 3% in 2017,
fluctuations and the long duration of four to five years and averaging 2.4% since the recession of 2008
for most apprenticeship programs has contributed to 2009. The recent expansion has been driven by
to cyclical mismatches between the demand for high levels of consumer expenditure, increased
skilled workers and the numbers of qualified certified immigration, rising residential investment and higher
workers available. This dynamic is evidenced by levels of exports and manufacturing output. Looking
recent peaks in demand for skilled trades and the ahead, the pace of growth is expected to slow to an
emergence of skilled trades shortages, driven by the average below 2% per year due to higher interest
highs of the resource cycle, followed by a period of rates, a cooling real estate market, slowing rates
rising rates of unemployment and significant declines of population growth and weaker growth south of
in new apprentice registrations in many provinces. the border. Continued uncertainty surrounding oil
The anticipated slower growth outlook for Canada’s and commodity prices has significantly reduced the
economy, combined with an aging workforce, number of planned major resource development
introduces a potential risk to the future capacity of projects limiting potential future growth in Alberta,
Canada’s skilled workforce. Saskatchewan and a few Atlantic provinces.
Figure 4- Real GDP Growth (%) Canada, 2013 to 2023
3.5 3.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.5
2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9
2.0 1.8 1.8
1.5 1.2
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook
British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario are expected Figure 5- Average Annual Real GDP Growth, by
to lead growth over the next five years propelled Province, 2019 to 2023
by steady immigration-driven population growth,
2.5
recovering manufacturing and major infrastructure 2.2 2.2
2.0 2.0
and energy sector investments. Weaker growth is 2.0 1.9
expected in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Atlantic 1.5
1.5 1.5
Canada due to declining resource and utility sector 1.2
1.0
investments. The regional divergence in growth will
likely contribute to labour market challenges in some 0.5
provinces as well as opportunities for mobility. Figure 0.0
5 shows annual average real GDP growth between CA BC AB SK MN ON QB ATL
2019 and 2023 by province. Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook
10 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumFigure 6- Employment Change by Sector (%) 2013 to 2018, 2019 to 2023
Construction -0.2%
4%
Manufacturing 0.4%
2%
Education Services 1.4%
6%
Utilities 1.8%
0%
Other Primary 2.7%
-7%
Professional Services 3.1%
9%
Transportation & Warehousing 3.9%
5%
Health Services
Accommodation & Food 5.7%
5%
Other Services 6.1%
2%
Total 4.6%
6%
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
2013 to 2018 2019 to 2023 Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook
Shifts in Sectoral Employment
The continued transition from resources sector The most important change in the demand for
investment-driven growth, emerging technologies skilled trades is the slowing pace of construction
and the increasing needs of an aging population are employment. The 2019-2028 BuildForce Canada
projected to result in shifts in employment growth Construction and Maintenance Outlook suggests that
across sectors. This trend is expected to have a “construction activity is expected to plateau after
significant impact on both the demand for skilled 2020 following two decades of almost uninterrupted
tradespeople and competition for new workers growth.”3 Although the shift in focus from resource
entering the workforce. sector investment towards infrastructure renewal and
expansion and maintenance is expected to sustain
Health services-related employment continues to construction sector employment at historical high
lead job growth in Canada, especially in provinces levels, it is likely that the pace of hiring will slow
with older populations. An aging population is also compared to the rapid expansion experienced over
expected to slow education sector employment. much of the last decade. The BuildForce Outlook
The service, accommodation and food sectors are also suggests that reaching the peak will require the
expected to experience relatively strong gains driven recruitment and training of thousands of additional
by steady increases in population and tourism. skilled workers to meet the needs of anticipated major
The pace of recovery in the manufacturing sector energy, public transportation and other infrastructure
is expected to slow, in-line with changing global projects. The greatest challenges are expected in
demands and the economy in the United States. British Columbia and Ontario. These provinces will
continue to grapple with record levels of construction
project activity and recruiting challenges over the next
few years. Growth will then decline as projects wind
down and investment decreases.
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 113.2 Population Growth
Slowing population growth and aging demographics are projected to
limit the pace of economic growth across Canada, but also to increase
the number of new workers needed to replace retirement and age-
related exits from the workforce. The rate of population growth is
expected to fall below 1% by 2025 as natural population growth (births-
deaths) slows and population growth is increasingly dependent on
augmenting immigration levels.
From 2019 to 2025, the share of Canada’s population aged 65 and over is
expected to increase from 18% to 20%, increasing the rate of workforce
retirements. In Atlantic Canada that share is 25%, which is significantly
higher than Alberta, where it is 16%. Alberta has one of the youngest
populations in the country.
Figure 7- Population Growth (%), Canada, 2016 to 2025
1.5 1.3
1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
1.2 1.1
1 1
0.9 0.9
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Stokes Economic Consulting, July 2018 Forecast
Figure 8- Share of the Population aged 65 and over by Province, 2019
and 2025
25%
ATL 21%
22%
QB 19%
20%
ON 17%
18%
MN 16%
18%
SK 16%
16%
AB 13%
22%
BC 19%
20%
CA 18%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
2025 2019
Source: Stokes Economic Consulting, July 2018 Forecast
12 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum3.3 Trends in Apprenticeship
The number of apprentices swelled across Canada in The 2008-2009 recession had a similar negative
the first decade of this century, a period of prolonged impact on new registrations resulting in a 23% drop
resource-driven expansion. The number of registered in new registrations in 2009. This 2009 decline,
apprentices in the top 10 Red Seal trades increased however, was followed by a relatively quick recovery
by 50% over 6 years from 99,500 in 2004 to 145,300 driven by a rebound in oil and commodity prices,
in 2010. From 2010 to 2018, the overall number significant infrastructure investment and an increase
of apprentices remained relatively flat, despite in new housing construction. New registrations rose
significant growth in employment for a number of steadily from 2009 and recovered to 2008 levels
apprenticeable skilled trades. A downward trend in by 2014. The current economic outlook suggests
the annual number of newly certified journeypersons that new registrations are unlikely to record any
poses potential risks for the future availability of significant gains and will remain near current
skilled tradespeople as Canada’s skilled workforce levels, close to 2009, over the coming decade. The
continues to age and retirements accelerate. The chart below shows the trends in new registrations,
following section provides an analysis of trends in completions and trades employment.
apprenticeship registrations and completions in the
top 10 Red Seal trades.
Between 2014 and 2017, annual new registrations for
the 10 largest Red Seal trades contracted by 20%.
There were 7,100 fewer new registrants. The decline
can be directly attributed to the collapse in oil and
other commodity prices in 2014 which resulted in
declining resource sector investments.
Figure 9- New Registrations, Completions and Employment in Top 10 Red Seal Trades, Canada, 2000 to 2019
PEAK
200 PROJECTION
PEAK
150
100
50 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Completions Registrations Employment
Source: Statistics Canada, RAIS, Custom Aggregation, Top 10 Red Seal Trades; LFS
Notes: *2018 and 2019 estimates
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 133.4 Provincial Trends
Based on 2017 RAIS data, Alberta still accounts for Figure 10- Change (%) in New Registrations by
the largest number of apprentices (54,160) registered Province, Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2017,
in the top 10 Red Seal trades in Canada. Alberta Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories)
apprentices represent 32% of the total apprentice Atlantic Canada -7%
population. Ontario follows with 28% and Quebec Overall -27%
with 23%. PEI 10%
The impact of declines in resource sector investments Newfoundland & Labrador -34%
were felt strongest in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Nova Scotia 17%
Newfoundland and Labrador where new registrations New Brunswick -5%
dropped by 50%, 40%, and 35% respectively. A Ontario -4%
decline of 8,141 new registrations in Alberta between Manitoba -9%
Saskatchewan -40%
2014 and 2017 represents 76% of the total declines
Alberta -50%
across all provinces, excluding Quebec. Most
British Columbia -20%
provinces experienced declines over the same period, -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
with Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island notable
exceptions. Alberta’s share of new registrations fell
from 39% in 2014 to 26% in 2017, while in the same
time period, Ontario’s share rose from 26% to 34%.
Figure 11- Distribution (%) of New Registrations by
Figure 12- Distribution (%) of New Registrations
Province, 2017
by Province, 2014, 2017
Manitoba 4% Saskatchewan 5%
4%
Saskatchewan 5% 4%
Manitoba
5%
Atlantic
Atlantic Canada 6%
Canada 8% 8%
British Columbia 20%
24%
Alberta 39%
Alberta 32% 26%
British Ontario 26%
34%
Columbia 23% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
New Reg Share (%) 2014
Ontario 28% New Reg Share (%) 2017
14 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum3.5 Trade Trends
New registrations fell in every Red Seal trade between 2014 and 2017
with declines most pronounced among the following trade programs:
steamfitter/pipefitter (-58%), welder (-55%) and heavy-duty equipment
technician (-39%). Employment in these trades is highly concentrated in
the engineering, construction, industrial and oil and gas sectors.
The significant decline in new registrations follows significant increases
for most trades during the expansion period from 2011 to 2014,
especially for the steamfitter/pipefitter, construction electrician and
plumber trades which increased by 74%, 41%, and 36% respectively. The
rapid increase reflects the rise in resource sector-driven demand, but
also the strengthening of non-residential and residential construction
requirements. Larger increases were also recorded for trades with
compulsory certification.
Cook and hairstylist programs have experienced an extended downward
trend in new registrations since 2010. Demand for service sector
professionals is reliant on consumer spending, which experienced
declines following the 2008-2009 downturn. As a result, employment
and training demands in these trades have been slower to recover.
Figure 13- New Apprenticeship Registrations by Trade, 2014 to 2017
TOP 10 RED SEAL % CHANGE
2014 2015 2016 2017
TRADES (2014-17)
Automotive Service 4,837 4,579 4,149 4,358 -10%
Technician
Carpenter 4,985 5,278 4,707 4,749 -5%
Construction Electrician 10,571 8,849 7,479 7,351 -30%
Cook 2,533 2,364 2,273 2,058 -19%
Hairstylist 3,459 3,108 2,927 2,953 -15%
Heavy-Duty Equipment 2,762 1,753 1,327 1,674 -39%
Technician
Industrial Mechanic 2,025 1,846 1,520 1,771 -13%
(Millwright)
Plumber 3,935 3,548 3,280 3,086 -22%
Steamfitter/Pipefitter 3,045 2,083 1,594 1,269 -58%
Welder 4,992 3,118 2,214 2,271 -55%
Total 43,144 36,526 31,470 31,540 -27%
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 15Figure 14- Change (%) in Average Annual New Registrations by Trade,
2011 to 2014, and 2014 to 2017
Automotive Service Technician -10%
18%
Carpenter -5%
0%
Construction Electrician -30%
41%
Cook -19%
-19%
Hairstylist -15%
-11%
Heavy Duty Equipment Technician -39%
22%
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) -13%
8%
Plumber -22%
36%
Steamfitter/Pipefitter -58%
74%
Welder -55%
22%
Total -27%
18%
2014 to 2017
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
2011 to 2014
3.6 Outcome Trends
This section provides an overview of trends in apprentice completions, completion rates and earnings.
Program Completions
The number of apprentices completing programs and Figure 15 outlines how the number of apprentices
awarded a Certificate of Qualification (C of Q) tends to completing their apprenticeship programs and
be much less volatile compared to new registrations. obtaining a C of Q nearly doubled from 10,926 in 2006
The proportion of apprentices going on to complete to a record high of 20,682 in 2013. This 2013 high
their respective programs remains generally stable. reflects both the peak in registrations in 2008 and
But the time taken to complete and the completion also the surge in completions (primarily carpenters
rates can be impacted by overall labour market and plumbers) in Ontario.4 The significant drop-
conditions. For example, it may take longer to off in new registrations after 2008 constrained the
complete an apprenticeship program if an apprentice number of new journeypersons to below 19,000 per
experiences layoffs during an economic downturn. year between 2014 and 2017. The downward trend in
program completions since 2013 reflects weakening
economic conditions that translated to fewer hours,
longer times to complete programs and an increase
in discontinuations. The recent decline and flattening
in new registrations is expected to result in a lower
number of new journeypersons in the future.
16 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumFigure 15- Trends in New Registrations and Completion, 2003 to 2018, Canada (excluding Quebec and
the Territories)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
New Registrations Completions
Figure 16- Distribution of Completions by Provinces, 2011 Figure 17- Change in Completions, 2011 to 2012, Canada
to 2012, Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories) (excluding Quebec and the Territories)
Saskatchewan 6%
Saskatchewan -7%
Manitoba 4%
Atlantic Manitoba -4%
Canada 7%
Atlantic Canada 0%
British Columbia 9%
Ontario 33%
British Alberta 10%
Columbia 17%
Ontario 16%
Alberta 33% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 17In 2017, Ontario with 6,165 and Alberta with 6,021 accounted for two-
thirds (66%) of the 18,477 newly certified journeypersons in Canada,
excluding Quebec and Territories. Ontario reported the largest
increase (16%) in completions since 2011, an increase driven by
continued expansion in construction and service sector employment.
Alberta’s completions were 10% higher in 2017 compared to 2011,
reflecting significant increases during the peak of the province’s
resource expansion. These rates were down 5% from 2016. This trend
is expected to continue due to much slower growth compared with
the previous decade.
The following trades: steamfitter/pipefitter (+407, 59%), cook (+314, 45%)
and construction electrician (+236, 5%) experienced the largest increases
in completions between 2011 and 2017. Gains were largely driven by
increases within individual provinces, notably Alberta, BC and Ontario.
Over the same period, completions declined in the carpenter (-652, -30%)
and plumber (-270, -14%) trades. Figure 18 illustrates the change in
completions between 2011 and 2017 by trade.
Figure 18- Percent Change (%) in Program Completions, Canada
(excluding Quebec and the Territories), 2011 to 2017
Automotive Service Technician 84, 4%
Carpenter -652, -30%
Construction Electrician 236, 5%
Cook 314, 45%
Hairstylist 57, 3%
Heavy Duty Equipment Technician 179, 18%
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) 142, 12%
Plumber -270, -14%
Steamfitter/Pipefitter 407, 59%
Welder -9, -1%
Total 486, 3%
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
18 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumCompletion Rates
The completion rate represents the percentage of apprentices that
successfully complete their apprenticeship programs and receive a
C of Q. Calculating completion rates is useful for tracking outcomes for
apprentices. The role that apprenticeship and trade certification plays
in the labour market depends on many factors, including regulations
and market conditions.
Historically, completion rates have remained around 50% in Canada, but
these vary by trade and by region.5 Several factors impact completion rates:
• Compulsory Certification: In order to work in a • Economic Conditions: Economic conditions
compulsory trade, a worker must be a registered impact apprentices’ abilities to progress. If they are
apprentice who is progressing towards certification laid off, it is difficult to earn hours towards their
in the trade or a certified journeyperson. apprenticeship. In tight labour markets, employers
may not want to release their apprentices to go to
• Income: According to the National Apprenticeship technical training.
Survey, completion is associated with higher pay
after certification.6 • Technical Training: Some apprentices feel they
cannot afford to go back to technical training and
• Employer Requirements: Industrial sector receive Employment Insurance instead of their
employers tend to demand a C of Q. full wages. These apprentices stay at their current
level and do not progress in their apprenticeship.
• Sectoral Differences: Individuals in service sector
Statistics Canada has recently started to compile
trades may use entry into an apprenticeship to gain
cohort-based measures of completion rates by
knowledge and “get a foot in the door,” but there
trade and tracking certification rates for apprentices
tends to be less incentive to complete because the
that complete their programs within 1.5x program
employer is satisfied with a Level 2 apprentice.
duration. New data suggest that despite the 2009
recession, completion rates among the top 10 Red
Seal trades have remained relatively stable between
the 2008 and 2010 cohorts.7
The proportion of apprentices in Canada that registered in 2010 and
completed their programs within 1.5x of the program duration ranged
between 49% for construction electricians and 28.6% for cooks. The
completion rates for individual programs are outlined in Figure 19. Each
trade indicates changes in completion rate within 5.5 percentage points.
Between 2008 and 2010, hairstylist (-0.8%), automotive service technician
(-5.4%) and steamfitter-pipefitter (-3.3%) all saw modest declines in their
completion rates. During the same period, welder (3.8%), cook (3.9%),
carpenter (0.6%), plumber (2.5%), industrial mechanic (millwright) (4.0%)
and construction electrician (2.0%) experienced modest increases in their
completion rates. Automotive service technician saw the largest change
in completion rate with a 5.4% decrease between 2008 and 2010. The
heavy-duty equipment technician trade saw virtually no change during
this period (0.1%) with a 42% completion rate.
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 19Figure 19- Completion Rate (%) within 1.5x Program Duration by Trade, 2008 and 2010
Hairstylist [6341]
45.6%
46.4%
Welder [7237]
36.7%
32.9%
Cook [6322]
28.6%
24.7%
Carpenter [7271]
31.8%
31.2%
Automotive Service Technician [7321]
33.9%
39.3%
Steamfitter/Pipefitter [7252]
35%
38.3%
Heavy Duty Equipment Technician [7312] 42.3%
42.2%
Plumber [7251] 42.5%
40%
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) [7311] 50.5%
46.5%
Construction Electrician [7241] 49%
47%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2008 2010
Completion rates at the provincial level were measured as a ratio of completions to
registrations in the past period equal to the expected duration of a specific program.
Completion rates decreased in the Atlantic Provinces, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The
rates increased in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Saskatchewan has
maintained the highest rate at 63%, but even this “high” of 2013 is a decline from the
province’s rate of 69% in 2010.
Figure 20- Average Completion Rates, Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Province 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017
Total 52%
53%
Prince Edward Island 47%
61%
New Brunswick 53%
64%
Nova Scotia 45%
46%
Newfoundland/Labrador 50%
55%
Manitoba 49%
62%
Saskatchewan 63%
69%
Quebec 55%
52%
Ontario 60%
50%
British Columbia 46%
41%
Alberta 50%
44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
2010-2013 2014-2017
20 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumAverage Time to Program Completion
Statistics Canada estimates apprentices take, on average, approximately 3.5 years
to complete a program. This varies widely, however, depending on individual trade
program requirements. Hairstylists take the least time to complete (1.5 years). Plumbers
and construction electricians each take about 4.4 years to become certified. The time to
complete is also impacted by economic and labour market conditions. Weaker economic
conditions lengthen the time it takes to become certified and reduce the likelihood an
individual will complete. For example, apprentices who registered following the 2008-2009
recession took less time to complete than those who registered in 2008. During periods of
slower growth, increased layoffs and reduced work opportunities make it more difficult for
apprentices to reach work hour requirements. This increases the risk of them discontinuing
their training programs. This trend was a key factor in the declining completion rates
and increased time to complete in provinces most negatively impacted by the economic
downturn. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador were the provinces
most impacted.
Figure 21- Median Time to Certification within 1.5x Program Duration, Canada, 2008 and 2010
Hairstylist [6341]
1.5
1.6
Welder [7237]
2.9
2.9
Cook [6322]
2.1
2.7
Carpenter [7271]
3.9
4.1
Automotive Service Technician [7321]
3.9
3.9
Steamfitter/Pipefitter [7252]
3.7
4
Heavy Duty Equipment Technician [7312] 3.9
3.9
Plumber [7251] 4.2
4.4
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) [7311] 3.9
3.9
Construction Electrician [7241] 4.3
4.4
0 1 2 3 4 5
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 21Trends in Earnings
Statistics Canada recently began tracking earnings of apprentices after
certification by linking RAIS data to tax files, resulting in better tracking
of apprentice labour market outcomes. The data show that earnings at
certification have been increasing, especially two years post-certification.
Income increases peaked in 2011, when completers earned $18,000 more
than they did the year they completed their programs. This trend occurred
during a period of peak employment in Canada following the recession
in 2009, where employees worked a higher number of hours and earned
increased wages. Those who completed apprenticeship programs in 2014
caught the end of this growth wave and are now seeing modest changes
in income two years after completing their program.
Figure 22- Income and Percent Change after Completion, 2008-2014
MEDIAN EMPLOYMENT MEDIAN EMPLOYMENT
COMPLETION YEAR INCOME (AT INCOME (2 YEARS % CHANGE
COMPLETION YEAR) POST-COMPLETION)
2008 60,685 69,665 14.8%
2009 54,745 70,190 28.2%
2010 57,180 74,780 30.8%
2011 57,215 75,690 32.3%
2012 59,355 76,205 28.4%
2013 60,230 70,960 17.8%
2014 61,135 63,590 4.0%
Figure 23- Median Employment Income ($) at Certification and 2 years after Certification, 2008 to 2014
$75,690 $76,205
80000 $69,665 $70,190
$74,780
$70,960
$60,685 $59,355 $60,230 $61,135 $63,590
$57,180 $57,215
60000 $57,745
40000
20000
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
At Year of Completion 2 Years Post-Completion
22 Canadian Apprenticeship Forum4.0
Certification Requirements and
Completions: A National Outlook
The following section provides a forward-looking assessment of apprenticeship program
registrations, completions and workforce certification requirements for the five-year
period from 2019 to 2023. A more in-depth provincial analysis of trade-specific training
and certification requirements and supply of new journeypersons is provided in separate
provincial and regional reports.
Certification requirements for skilled trades and estimates of the required number of new
journeypersons are determined by many inter-related factors. The supply of new certified
workers is met by either apprenticeship completers or trade qualifiers. Completers are
individuals who complete an apprenticeship program and are awarded a C of Q. Trade
qualifiers are workers who have significant work experience and, if they pass the C of Q
exam, are awarded certification. Although trade qualifiers contribute positively to the
supply of certified workers, a significant proportion hold multiple tickets or are existing
skilled workers who move between provinces or countries. Consequentially, they do not
represent an addition of skills in the workforce or an increase in demand for apprenticeship
training. The analysis in this report focuses on apprentice completers. Estimates of new
journeypersons are based on projections of new registrations and completions.
Figure 24 outlines projections of registrations based on anticipated changes in employment,
age demographics and completions assuming that recent trends in completion rates for
individual trade and provinces remain consistent.
The economic and employment growth outlook suggests that between 2019 and 2023,
new registrations in Red Seal programs will increase modestly from 32,184 to 33,150.
Completions are expected to remain flat, hovering below 17,000.
Figure 24- Trends in Apprenticeship Program Registrations and Completions, Top 10 Red Seal
Trades, 2008 to 2023
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
New Registrations Completions
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 234.1 Workforce Certification Requirements
The skilled trades workforce is composed of certified trades and occupations. Future requirements are
and non-certified workers. The proportion varies driven by the following variables:
across trades, sectors and provinces due, in part, to
differences in regulations and industry requirements. 1. Changes in employment for the apprenticeable (or
The central question posed in the assessment of principal) trade;
workforce certification requirements is: How many 2. Labour force retirements and deaths of individuals
newly certified journeypersons are required to employed in the apprenticeable (or principal) trade;
maintain the current share of certified workers for
a skilled trade in the workforce? Because a C of Q 3. Changes in employment for related trades and
is held by individuals as they move between jobs occupations;
and progress in their careers, the analysis must
also consider certification rates of related trades 4. Retirements of certified workers in related trades
and occupations. A related trade or occupation is an and occupations.
occupation that requires or benefits from the skills
In the next five years, an estimated 47,278 newly
and qualifications as represented by a C of Q
certified journeypersons will be required to maintain
but does not have an apprenticeship program
certification requirements for skilled workers in the
attached to it. Most often, these related occupations
top 10 Red Seal trades. Nearly three-quarters (73%)
are managerial or supervisor positions. The total
of this requirement is attributed to the expected
trade certification and training requirement is the
age-related exits of 34,556 certified workers from the
sum of journeypersons required to maintain stable
workforce through retirement or death.
certification rates in both the principal and related
Ontario is projected to lead
demand for journeypersons over Figure 25- Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades
the next five years requiring an between 2019 and 2023 by Province
estimated 19,144 newly certified
journeypersons working directly in
British Columbia 2,486 6,078 8,564 TOTAL
the top 10 Red Seal trades. Alberta
and British Columbia follow Ontario Alberta 4,694 8,147 12,841 TOTAL
with requirements of 12,841 Saskatchewan 952 1,496 2,447 TOTAL
and 8,564 new journeypersons 1,123 TOTAL
Manitoba 16 1,107
respectively. The employment
levels will remain stable in Atlantic Ontario 5,550 13,595 19,144 TOTAL
Canada, but there will still be a Atlantic Canada (976) 4,134 3,159 TOTAL
need for 3,159 new journeypersons
(3000) 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 18000 21000
due to retirements. Certification
requirements are partly Employment Certification Demand (Principal) Replacement Certifications (Principal)
constrained in Atlantic Canada
due to employment declines in
Newfoundland and Labrador.
24 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumIn addition to the certification requirements represented by hiring requirements for the top 10 Red
Seal trades, an additional 19,704 new journeypersons will be required to meet the hiring requirements
represented by related trades and occupations. These related occupations tend to draw from the
existing pool of certified workers and hire these individuals as managers, supervisors and contractors.
It is estimated that over the next five years, 67,000 new journeypersons will be required for the top 10
Red Seal trades across Canada, excluding Quebec and the Territories.
Figure 26- Total Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades between 2019 and 2023 by Province
British Columbia 8,564 5,400 13,964 TOTAL
Alberta 12,841 6,116 18,957 TOTAL
Saskatchewan 2,447 1,110 3,557 TOTAL
Manitoba 1,123 772 1,895 TOTAL
Ontario 19,144 5,135 24,280 TOTAL
Atlantic Canada 3,159 1,171 4,329 TOTAL
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Total Certification Requirement (Principal) Total Related Certification (Principal)
Figure 27 provides a breakdown of national certification requirements by trade, including changes in
employment and replacement demand (retirements and deaths), for the top 10 Red Seal trades. Principal
and related trades and occupations are considered. It is worth noting that a larger proportion of certification
requirements for the carpenter and cook trades are driven by demand in the related trades and occupations.
Figure 27- Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades between 2019 and 2023 by Trade
EMPLOYMENT REPLACEMENT
CERTIFICATION CERTIFICATION RELATED TOTAL
TRADE DEMAND DEMAND CERTIFICATION CERTIFICATION
(PRINCIPAL (PRINCIPAL DEMAND DEMAND
TRADE) TRADE)
Auto Service Technician 1,796 4,519 2,438 8,754
Carpenter (643) 4,449 3,661 7,466
Construction Electrician 2,553 6,472 4,254 13,279
Cook 768 1,147 3,075 4,990
Hairstylist 2,048 4,117 1,068 7,233
Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician 653 2,387 1,578 4,610
Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) 2,411 4,182 743 7,336
Plumber 889 2,267 1,140 4,296
Steamfitter/Pipefitter 692 1,375 651 2,718
Welder 1,555 3,651 1,096 6,301
Total 12,722 34,556 19,704 66,982
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 254.2 Future Supply of New Journeypersons
Nearly 164,100 apprentices are expected to register in the top 10 Red Seal trades between
2019 and 2023. This figure is down approximately 9% compared with registrations over
the past five years when new registrations averaged about 36,000 per year. This period
spanned the peak in 2014 as well as the significant declines in 2015 and 2016. Looking
ahead, total new registrations are expected to decline to an average just over 32,800 per
year over the next five years, reflecting a period of projected slower employment growth.
Declines are expected in every province, except Ontario where average annual registrations
are projected to rise by 9% to just over 11,000 per year. Alberta is projected to experience
the most significant decline. New registrations are expected to average 8,750, representing
a decrease of 23% compared with the average over the previous 5 years.
Figures 28 and 29 illustrate the average total registrations for the top 10 Red Seal trades
by province and by trade respectively for the last five years, 2013 to 2018, and then from
the 2019 to 2023 forecast period. At the trade level, the largest declines are expected in the
welder, steam-fitter/pipefitter and construction electrician programs.
Figure 28- Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Province, Historic
(2013 to 2018) and Projected (2019 to 2023)
12000 11,359
10,632 11,087
8,508 8,752
7,878
8000
4000
1,490 1,179 1,659 1,557
661 590
0
BC AL SK MN ON ATL
New Registrations 2013 to 2018 New Registrations 2019 to 2023
Source: Statistics Canada, RAIS, CANTRAQ Prism Economics (2019)
Figure 29- Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades, Historic (2013 to 2018)
and Projected (2019 to 2023)
10000
8,518
7,689
6000 4,820 4,541 4,941 4,715
3,163 3,076 3,426 3,230 3,194
2,351 2,173 2,070 2,367
1,961 1,748 1,846 1,900
2000 1,374
0
Auto Service Tech. Construction Electrician Hairstylist Industrial Mechanic Steamfitter/Pipefitter
(Millwright)
Carpenter Cook Heavy Duty Equip. Tech. Plumber Welder
New Registrations 2013 to 2018 New Registrations 2019 to 2023
Source: Statistics Canada, RAIS, CANTRAQ Prism Economics (2019)
26 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumGaps in Supply and Demand
The build up in new registrations to peak levels Looking ahead, completions are expected to decline
in 2014 has translated to high completion from an annual average of nearly 18,050 between
levels for several trades through to 2018. The 2013 and 2018, to 16,200 per year between 2019
recent declines, however, in construction sector to 2023. Certification requirements are expected
employment in Alberta and Newfoundland and to recover. The largest share of declines and
Labrador have resulted in an “overshoot” in the recovery in certification requirements are expected
number of newly certified workers relative to in Alberta. This is driven by the significant drop in
demand. There is a downside risk to projected new registrations that occurred between 2014 and
completions during a period of generally 2016, followed by the anticipated recovery ahead.
weaker labour market conditions. Fewer job The analysis suggests that given the current level
opportunities and declines in available work of new registrations, any significant acceleration
hours will likely extend the average time to of demand requirements could pose significant
complete as well as lower completion rates recruiting challenges. In British Columbia, the average
among those apprentices who registered after annual completions are expected to increase over the
2015. In British Columbia, the analysis suggests next 5 years, just as demands are no longer at their
that completions lagged behind certification peak level after 2021. A similar divergence in trends,
requirements. Continued expansion appears to though on a smaller scale, is expected in Manitoba
have driven demand for certified workers ahead as major hydro and utilities sector projects wind
of the supply of newly certified journeypersons. down. In Atlantic Canada, certification requirements
are expected to remain stable over the near term
as declines in employment in Newfoundland
and Labrador are offset by more stable levels of
employment across the other Atlantic provinces.
Rising retirements will be a key driver of training
needs. There is a potential risk of completions falling
behind certification requirements as demand recovers
in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2025 and beyond.
At the trade level, the analysis suggests there is a
potential risk that certification requirements may
run ahead of completions for a number of trades
including welders, millwrights and cooks.
Figure 30- Average Total Completions in the Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Province
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Demand 2013 to 2018 Demand 2019 to 2023
Completions 2013 to 2018 Completions 2019 to 2023
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 27Figure 31- Average Annual Certification Demand by Red Seal Trade, Canada, 2013 to 2018 and
2019 to 2023
5000
3000
1000
0
Auto Service Tech. Construction Electrician Hairstylist Industrial Mechanic Steamfitter/Pipefitter
(Millwright)
Carpenter Cook Heavy Duty Equip. Tech. Plumber Welder
Demand 2013 to 2018 Demand 2019 to 2023
Completions 2013 to 2018 Completions 2019 to 2023
Target Registrations
To meet certification requirements, an estimated 167,800 apprentices are likely to be
required over the next five years. Although this trend is similar to the projected number
of apprentices (164,100) at the national level, there are significant differences between
projections and requirements for individual trades and by province. For more information,
see the provincial and regional reports.
V2
Figure 32- Average Annual Registration Targets by Trade
8000 7,237 6,980
6000 5,335 5,200
4,457 4,272 4,302
3,982 3,880 3,819
4000 3,289
2,898 2,941
1,741 1,920
2000 1,651 1,732
1,222 974
676
0
Auto Service Tech. Construction Electrician Hairstylist Industrial Mechanic Steamfitter/Pipefitter
(Millwright)
Carpenter Cook Heavy Duty Equip. Tech. Plumber Welder
Target Registrations 2013 to 2018 Target Registrations 2019 to 2023
28 Canadian Apprenticeship ForumFigure 33- Projected Registrations, Projected Completions, Certifications Required and Target
Registrations by Province
PROJECTED PROJECTED CERTIFICATIONS TARGET
PROVINCE REGISTRATIONS COMPLETIONS REQUIRED REGISTRATIONS
British Columbia 39,389 15,164 13,964 49,788
Alberta 43,760 20,863 18,957 48,244
Saskatchewan 5,896 3,717 3,557 6,462
Manitoba 7,784 3,801 1,895 5,510
Ontario 55,436 31,701 24,280 46,413
Atlantic Canada 11,803 5,759 4,329 11,376
TOTAL 164,068 81,006 66,982 167,793
Figure 34- Projected Registrations, Projected Completions, Certifications Required and Target
Registrations by Trade
PROJECTED PROJECTED CERTIFICATIONS TARGET
TRADE REGISTRATIONS COMPLETIONS REQUIRED REGISTRATIONS
Auto Service 22,705 9,952 8,754 19,908
Technician
Carpenter 23,577 7,477 7,466 34,900
Construction 38,444 24,831 13,279 22,286
Electrician
Cook 10,863 2,607 4,990 21,358
Hairstylist 15,381 9,312 7,233 21,512
Heavy-Duty Equipment 8,740 4,408 4,610 8,253
Technician
Industrial Mechanic 9,501 5,561 7,336 8,658
(Millwright)
Plumber 16,151 8,872 4,296 9,602
Steamfitter/Pipefitter 6,872 2,960 2,718 4,872
Welder 11,834 5,026 6,301 16,444
TOTAL 164,068 81,006 66,982 167,793
Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report 295.0
Conclusion
This report summarizes apprenticeship trends
data and projections from the CANTRAQ system
providing an assessment of demand and supply for
trade certification across the top 10 Red Seal trades
in Canada. The results indicate that over the next
five years, an estimated 66,982 new journeypersons
will be required as well as 167,793 new apprentices.
Helping apprentices to progress and complete their
programs remains important given the demand for
certification. A downward trend in the annual number
of newly certified journeypersons poses potential
risks for the future availability of skilled tradespersons
as Canada’s skilled workforce continues to age and
retirement rates accelerate.
1. Quebec programs are not included in the trade-specific analysis due to differences in program
classifications and inconsistencies in historical data series.
2. Andrew Sharpe and James Gibson, Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS), The Apprenticeship
System in Canada: Trends and Issues (Ottawa: CSLS Research Report, September 2005).
3. BuildForce, Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward National Highlights, 2019-2028 (Ottawa:
BuildForce Canada, 2019).
4. The implementation of the Ontario College of Trades may have impacted the increase in
completions in Ontario.
5. See Sandrine Prasil, Registered Apprentices: The Class of 1992, A Decade Later (Ottawa: Statistics
Canada, 2005); Denis Morissette, Registered Apprentices: The Cohort of 1993, A Decade Later,
Comparisons with the 1992 Cohort (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2008); and Louise Desjardins and Nicole
Paquin, Registered Apprentices: The Cohorts of 1994 and 1995, One Decade Later (Ottawa: Statistics
Canada, 2010).
6. Kristyn Frank and Emily Jovic, National Apprenticeship Survey Canada Overview Report 2015, (Ottawa:
Statistics Canada, 2017).
7. Due to the variance in program duration and the measure of completions using 1.5x program duration,
the completion rates for new registrants in 2010 are the most recent available.
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