Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA

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Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
Apprentice Demand in the
 Top Ten Red Seal Trades:
  A 2019 National Labour
Market Information Report
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
The Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A        Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
2019 National Labour Market Information Report                 364-440 Laurier Avenue West
Prepared for the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum                 Ottawa ON K1R 7X6

Author: Prism Economics and Analysis                           Email: info@caf-fca.org
The opinions expressed in this report are those of the         Website: www.caf-fca.org
authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of CAF-FCA.   Canadian Apprenticeship Forum

                                                               Copyright May 2019
                                                               ISBN#: 978-0-9808913-3-1
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
Contents
1.0 Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.0 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.0 National Trends in Apprenticeship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
        3.1 Economic and Population Outlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
        3.2 Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
        3.3 Trends in Apprenticeship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
        3.4 Provincial Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
        3.5 Trade Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
        3.6 Outcome Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
4.0 C
     ertification Requirements and Completions:
    A National Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
        4.1 Workforce Certification Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
        4.2 Future Supply of New Journeypersons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.0 Conclusion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

List of Figures
Figure 1: Summary of Projected New Registrations,Target Registrations                                                 Figure 19: Completion Rate (%) within 1.5x Program Duration by
and Certification Requirements, by Province, 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7                                 Trade, 2008 and 2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 2: Summary of Projected Completions,Target Registrations and                                                   Figure 20: Average Completion Rates, Top 10 Red Seal Trades by
Certification Requirements, by Trade, 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7                          Province 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Figure 3: Top 10 Red Seal Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8                   Figure 21: Median Time to Certification within 1.5x Program Duration,
Figure 4: Real GDP Growth (%) Canada, 2013 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10                                Canada, 2008 and 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

Figure 5: Average Annual Real GDP Growth, by Province, 2019 to 2023 . 10                                              Figure 22: Income and Percent Change after Completion, 2008-2014. . . . . 22

Figure 6: Employment Change by Sector (%) 2013 to 2018, 2019 to 2023.11                                               Figure 23: Median Employment Income ($) at Certification and 2 years
                                                                                                                      after Certification, 2008 to 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Figure 7: Population Growth (%), Canada, 2016 to 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
                                                                                                                      Figure 24: Trends in Apprenticeship Program Registrations and
Figure 8: Share of the Population aged 65 and over by Province,                                                       Completions, Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2008 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2019 and 2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
                                                                                                                      Figure 25: Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Figure 9: New Registrations, Completions and Employment in Top                                                        between 2019 and 2023 by Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
10 Red Seal Trades, Canada, 2000 to 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
                                                                                                                      Figure 26: Total Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal
Figure 10: Change (%) in New Registrations by Province,Top 10 Red                                                     Trades between 2019 and 2023 by Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Seal Trades, 2014 to 2017, Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories). 14
                                                                                                                      Figure 27: Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Figure 11: Distribution (%) of New Registrations by Province, 2017 . . . . . . 14                                     between 2019 and 2023 by Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Figure 12: Distribution (%) of New Registrations by Province, 2014, 2017. . 14                                        Figure 28: Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Figure 13: New Apprenticeship Registrations by Trade, 2014 to 2017. . . . 15                                          by Province, Historic (2013 to 2018) and Projected (2019 to 2023). . . . . . . . 26
Figure 14: Change (%) in Average Annual New Registrations by Trade,                                                   Figure 29: Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal
2011 to 2014, and 2014 to 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16             Trades, Historic (2013 to 2018) and Projected (2019 to 2023) . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Figure 15: Trends in New Registrations and Completion, 2003 to 2018,                                                  Figure 30: Average Total Completions in the Top 10 Red Seal Trades
Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17                              by Province. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Figure 16: Distribution of Completions by Provinces, 2011 to 2012,                                                    Figure 31: Average Annual Certification Demand by Red Seal Trade,
Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17                           Canada, 2013 to 2018 and 2019 to 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Figure 17: Change in Completions, 2011 to 2012, Canada (excluding                                                     Figure 32: Average Annual Registration Targets by Trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Quebec and the Territories). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17           Figure 33: Projected Registrations, Projected Completions,
Figure 18: Percent Change (%) in Program Completions, Canada                                                          Certifications Required and Target Registrations by Province. . . . . . . . . . 29
(excluding Quebec and the Territories), 2011 to 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18                             Figure 34: Projected Registrations, Projected Completions,
                                                                                                                      Certifications Required and Target Registrations by Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
About the Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
        The Canadian Apprenticeship Forum – Forum canadien sur
        l’apprentissage (CAF-FCA) is a national, not-for-profit organization
        working with stakeholders in all regions of Canada. We influence pan-
        Canadian apprenticeship strategies through research, discussion and
        collaboration. We share insights across trades, across sectors and
        across the country. We do this in order to promote apprenticeship as an
        effective model for training and education.

        Our Board of Directors is comprised of representatives from business,
        labour, the jurisdictional apprenticeship authorities, education and
        equity-seeking groups. Through our work, CAF-FCA has shed light on
        a number of key issues affecting apprenticeship, such as the perceived
        barriers to accessing and completing apprenticeship, and the business
        case for apprenticeship training. For more information, visit the CAF-FCA
        website at www.caf-fca.org.

4   Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
About the Author
Prism Economics and Analysis (Prism) is an established labour market
economics consultancy firm specializing in the analysis of labour
markets and human resource planning issues. Prism works with
employers, governments, post-secondary institutions, trade unions
and professional associations to deliver reliable research that provides
practical human resource solutions.

Prism’s in-depth knowledge of labour market structures,
apprenticeship and training systems, sources, people, institutions,
regulations and policies leads to credible and practical research.
Prism understands the different interests and perspectives of
stakeholder groups and carefully balances its analysis and reporting
to respect and reconcile these interests.

Prism developed the Canadian System for Tracking Apprenticeship
Qualifications (CANTRAQ) to track demand requirements and supply
of trade certifications. CAF-FCA supported the development of the
methodology and continues to work in collaboration with Prism to better
understand apprentice supply and demand.

Intellectual Copyright
The intellectual copyright for the CANTRAQ system belongs to Prism.
This report is the intellectual copyright of CAF-FCA and must be properly
referenced if cited. Please refer to the report on CAF-FCA’s Reports and
Resources page.

Funder Acknowledgement
This project is funded by the Government of Canada’s Sectoral
Initiatives Program.

The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada.

                                              Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report   5
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
1.0
    Executive Summary
    This report draws together apprenticeship trends         Another challenge is the risk of skilled trades
    data and projections from the Canadian System for        shortages over the long-term due to the decline
    Tracking Apprenticeship Qualifications (CANTRAQ)         in new apprentices since 2014, and the potential
    to provide a forward-looking assessment of demand        erosion of training capacity. Annual new
    and supply for trade certification across the top 10     registrations in the 10 largest Red Seal trades
    Red Seal trades in Canada. National, provincial and      contracted by 20% between 2014 and 2017, or
    trade-specific assessments of demand and supply          by 7,100 fewer new registrants. The decline can
    projections are also provided.                           be directly attributed to the collapse in oil and
                                                             resource prices in 2014 and subsequent declines
    From 2019 to 2023, an estimated 67,000 new               in investments in the resource sector. The impact
    journeypersons will be required to sustain workforce     of declines in resource sector investment related
    certification levels across the 10 largest Red Seal      to apprenticeship was felt strongest in Alberta,
    trades in Canada, excluding Quebec and the               where new registrations dropped by 50%,
    Territories. Although the pace of employment growth      followed by Saskatchewan, where it dropped
    in many skilled trades is expected to slow compared      by 40%, and Newfoundland and Labrador,
    to the rapid expansion over the last decade,             where it dropped by 35%. The 2008 to 2009
    workforce retirements continue to rise. Keeping pace     recession had a similar negative impact on new
    with the demand for skills and workforce certification   registrations resulting in a 23% drop in them in
    will require attracting 167,739 new apprentices over     2009, but the decline in 2009 was followed by a
    the next five years.                                     relatively quick recovery. There is no evidence,
                                                             however, of a similar recovery this time round. A
    An anticipated shift in demand between regions
                                                             downward trend in the annual number of newly
    and sectors will require a redistribution of training
                                                             certified journeypersons poses potential risks for
    certification requirements and, therefore, shared
                                                             the future availability of skilled tradespersons as
    training resources among trades and provinces. The
                                                             Canada’s skilled workforce continues to age and
    anticipated slowdown in the pace of construction
                                                             retirement rates accelerate.
    employment is likely to result in decreased demand
    from current levels for some trades, such as             An additional risk is a decline in the number of
    construction electricians and plumbers, and increased    youth entering the workforce as a share of the
    requirements for others, such as millwrights, welders    population. This is due to aging demographics
    and cooks.                                               and the rise in competing demands from other
                                                             sectors of the economy facing common supply
                                                             challenges. Over the next five years, growth in
                                                             IT and service sector jobs is expected to outpace
                                                             several sectors that employ large numbers of
                                                             skilled tradespeople. Health services-related
                                                             employment in particular is expected to continue
                                                             to lead job growth in Canada, especially in
                                                             provinces with older populations.

6                  Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
Based on the CANTRAQ analysis, Figure 1 below provides a summary of the number of new
journeypersons required and the targets for the total number of new apprentices likely needed to
meet these requirements by province over the period 2019 to 2023. Figure 2 compares projected
completions, target registrations and certification requirements by trade over the same period,
2019 to 2023.

Figure 1- Summary of Projected New Registrations, Target Registrations and Certification Requirements,
by Province, 2019 to 2023

           PROVINCE                  CERTIFICATIONS REQUIRED              TARGET REGISTRATIONS
British Columbia                                              13,964                                 49,788
Alberta                                                       18,957                                 48,244
Saskatchewan                                                   3,557                                  6,462
Manitoba                                                       1,895                                  5,510
Ontario                                                       24,280                                 46,413
Atlantic Canada                                                4,329                                 11,376
Total                                                         66,982                                167,793

Figure 2- Summary of Projected Completions, Target Registrations and Certification Requirements, by
Trade, 2019 to 2023

                                               PROJECTED    CERTIFICATIONS                  TARGET
 RANK                  TRADE
                                              COMPLETIONS     REQUIRED                   REGISTRATION
         Cook                                         2,607           4,990                      21,358
         Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)                 5,561                 7,336                 8,658
         Welder                                           5,026                6,301                 16,444
         Heavy Duty Equipment Technician                  4,408                4,610                  8,253
         Carpenter                                        7,477                 7,466                34,900
         Steamfitter/Pipefitter                           2,960                2,718                  4,872
         Automotive Service Technician                    9,952                8,754                 19,908
         Hairstylist                                      9,312                 7,233                21,512
         Construction Electrician                        24,831               13,279                 22,286
         Plumber                                          8,872                4,296                  9,602
         Total                                           81,006               66,982                167,793

                                                            Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report    7
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
2.0
    Introduction
    The objective of this report is to provide                  The second section of this report provides a forward-
    apprenticeship stakeholders with an analysis of             looking assessment of apprenticeship program
    apprenticeship trends and projections of training           registrations, completions and workforce certification
    requirements in the top 10 Red Seal trades.                 requirements for the five-year period 2019 to 2023.

    The first section of the report provides an analysis        The projections and analysis are informed by recent
    of national and provincial trends in apprenticeship         provincial economic forecasts and sectoral labour
    registrations and completion rates based on the             market studies, including the 2019 BuildForce Canada
    latest available data (2017) from Statistics Canada’s       Construction and Maintenance Outlook, and provincial
    Registered Apprenticeship Information System                macroeconomic and occupational hiring projections
    (RAIS). The section also provides a summary of the          produced by the Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE).
    economic and population growth outlook and other            The detailed qualification-based analysis for individual
    factors which are likely to impact the demand and           trade programs is based on CANTRAQ.
    supply for trade certification and apprenticeship
    training in Canada.

                                                   Figure 3- Top 10 Red Seal Programs

    RAIS compiles data from the
    provinces and territories based                                     RED SEAL TRADE                     NOC 4
    on the number of individuals                       1     Construction Electrician                       7,241
    registered in apprenticeship                       2     Carpenter                                      7,271
    programs and those who
    obtain certification. CAF-FCA’s                    3     Welder                                         7,237
    report provides statistics and                     4     Steamfitter/Pipefitter                         7,252
    analysis of the trends in new                      5     Automotive Service Technician                  7,321
    registrations and completions                      6     Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)               7,311
    in the top 10 Red Seal
    apprenticeable programs across                     7     Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician                7,312
    Canada, excluding Quebec and                       8     Plumber                                        7,251
    the Territories.1                                  9     Cook                                           6,322
                                                      10     Hairstylist                                    6,341

8                  Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
3.0
National Trends in
Apprenticeship
3.1 Economic and
Population Outlook
This section describes economic and population
trends and other factors likely to impact the demand
and supply for trade certification and apprenticeship
training in Canada. Economic conditions and
fluctuations in employment are among the chief
determinants of apprenticeship program registrations
and completions. Since employment is a precondition
of an apprenticeship, this form of post-secondary
education is distinct from college or university and
is typically extremely sensitive to the ebb and flow
of economic cycles. The correlation is positive with
rising employment translating into higher program
registrations and increased completions.2 Periods
of rapid expansion in employment requirements,
however, can result in a decrease of available
resources to take on and mentor apprentices. Tighter
labour market conditions can lower employers’
qualification requirements and also dissuade workers
from seeking a formal apprenticeship due to the
opportunity cost associated with attending technical
training or lower earnings. During these periods
of economic growth, employers will tend to hire
from the pool of available (unemployed) skilled and
experienced workers first, rather than take on less-
experienced new entrants.

                                                        Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report   9
Apprentice Demand in the Top Ten Red Seal Trades: A 2019 National Labour Market Information Report - CAF-FCA
Economic cycles tend to result in significant                   The pace of economic expansion slowed to 2.1%
     fluctuations in annual program registrations. These             in 2018, after surpassing a G7-leading 3% in 2017,
     fluctuations and the long duration of four to five years        and averaging 2.4% since the recession of 2008
     for most apprenticeship programs has contributed                to 2009. The recent expansion has been driven by
     to cyclical mismatches between the demand for                   high levels of consumer expenditure, increased
     skilled workers and the numbers of qualified certified          immigration, rising residential investment and higher
     workers available. This dynamic is evidenced by                 levels of exports and manufacturing output. Looking
     recent peaks in demand for skilled trades and the               ahead, the pace of growth is expected to slow to an
     emergence of skilled trades shortages, driven by the            average below 2% per year due to higher interest
     highs of the resource cycle, followed by a period of            rates, a cooling real estate market, slowing rates
     rising rates of unemployment and significant declines           of population growth and weaker growth south of
     in new apprentice registrations in many provinces.              the border. Continued uncertainty surrounding oil
     The anticipated slower growth outlook for Canada’s              and commodity prices has significantly reduced the
     economy, combined with an aging workforce,                      number of planned major resource development
     introduces a potential risk to the future capacity of           projects limiting potential future growth in Alberta,
     Canada’s skilled workforce.                                     Saskatchewan and a few Atlantic provinces.

         Figure 4- Real GDP Growth (%) Canada, 2013 to 2023

         3.5                                          3.2
                          3.0
         3.0
                2.6
         2.5
                                                            2.1    2.0      2.0                  1.9
         2.0                                                                            1.8                  1.8

         1.5                               1.2
                                  1.1
         1.0
         0.5
         0.0
               2013      2014    2015     2016    2017      2018   2019    2020         2021    2022         2023
         Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook

     British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario are expected                   Figure 5- Average Annual Real GDP Growth, by
     to lead growth over the next five years propelled                               Province, 2019 to 2023
     by steady immigration-driven population growth,
                                                                          2.5
     recovering manufacturing and major infrastructure                                   2.2   2.2
                                                                                  2.0                                2.0
     and energy sector investments. Weaker growth is                      2.0                                              1.9

     expected in Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Atlantic                      1.5
                                                                                                       1.5     1.5

     Canada due to declining resource and utility sector                                                                         1.2

                                                                          1.0
     investments. The regional divergence in growth will
     likely contribute to labour market challenges in some                0.5
     provinces as well as opportunities for mobility. Figure              0.0
     5 shows annual average real GDP growth between                               CA     BC    AB      SK      MN    ON    QB    ATL

     2019 and 2023 by province.                                           Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook

10                    Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Figure 6- Employment Change by Sector (%) 2013 to 2018, 2019 to 2023

   Construction                                                                  -0.2%
                                                                                    4%

   Manufacturing                                                                  0.4%
                                                                                    2%

   Education Services                                                             1.4%
                                                                                    6%

   Utilities                                                                      1.8%
                                                                                    0%

   Other Primary                                                                  2.7%
                                                                                   -7%

   Professional Services                                                          3.1%
                                                                                    9%

   Transportation & Warehousing                                                   3.9%
                                                                                    5%

   Health Services
   Accommodation & Food                                                           5.7%
                                                                                    5%

   Other Services                                                                 6.1%
                                                                                    2%

   Total                                                                          4.6%
                                                                                    6%

                                      -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
    2013 to 2018   2019 to 2023   Source: Statistics Canada, BuildForce Canada 2019 Outlook

Shifts in Sectoral Employment
The continued transition from resources sector                 The most important change in the demand for
investment-driven growth, emerging technologies                skilled trades is the slowing pace of construction
and the increasing needs of an aging population are            employment. The 2019-2028 BuildForce Canada
projected to result in shifts in employment growth             Construction and Maintenance Outlook suggests that
across sectors. This trend is expected to have a               “construction activity is expected to plateau after
significant impact on both the demand for skilled              2020 following two decades of almost uninterrupted
tradespeople and competition for new workers                   growth.”3 Although the shift in focus from resource
entering the workforce.                                        sector investment towards infrastructure renewal and
                                                               expansion and maintenance is expected to sustain
Health services-related employment continues to                construction sector employment at historical high
lead job growth in Canada, especially in provinces             levels, it is likely that the pace of hiring will slow
with older populations. An aging population is also            compared to the rapid expansion experienced over
expected to slow education sector employment.                  much of the last decade. The BuildForce Outlook
The service, accommodation and food sectors are                also suggests that reaching the peak will require the
expected to experience relatively strong gains driven          recruitment and training of thousands of additional
by steady increases in population and tourism.                 skilled workers to meet the needs of anticipated major
The pace of recovery in the manufacturing sector               energy, public transportation and other infrastructure
is expected to slow, in-line with changing global              projects. The greatest challenges are expected in
demands and the economy in the United States.                  British Columbia and Ontario. These provinces will
                                                               continue to grapple with record levels of construction
                                                               project activity and recruiting challenges over the next
                                                               few years. Growth will then decline as projects wind
                                                               down and investment decreases.

                                                                        Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report    11
3.2 Population Growth
     Slowing population growth and aging demographics are projected to
     limit the pace of economic growth across Canada, but also to increase
     the number of new workers needed to replace retirement and age-
     related exits from the workforce. The rate of population growth is
     expected to fall below 1% by 2025 as natural population growth (births-
     deaths) slows and population growth is increasingly dependent on
     augmenting immigration levels.

     From 2019 to 2025, the share of Canada’s population aged 65 and over is
     expected to increase from 18% to 20%, increasing the rate of workforce
     retirements. In Atlantic Canada that share is 25%, which is significantly
     higher than Alberta, where it is 16%. Alberta has one of the youngest
     populations in the country.

       Figure 7- Population Growth (%), Canada, 2016 to 2025

       1.5                      1.3
               1.2     1.2               1.2         1.2
       1.2                                                 1.1
                                                                    1      1
                                                                                 0.9      0.9
       0.9
       0.6
       0.3
       0.0
              2016     2017    2018     2019     2020      2021    2022   2023   2024    2025
       Source: Stokes Economic Consulting, July 2018 Forecast

       Figure 8- Share of the Population aged 65 and over by Province, 2019
       and 2025
                                                                                           25%
        ATL                                                                                21%

                                                                                           22%
        QB                                                                                 19%

                                                                                           20%
        ON                                                                                 17%

                                                                                           18%
        MN                                                                                 16%

                                                                                           18%
        SK                                                                                 16%

                                                                                           16%
        AB                                                                                 13%

                                                                                           22%
        BC                                                                                 19%

                                                                                           20%
        CA                                                                                 18%

                0%             5%              10%           15%          20%           25%
                     2025     2019
       Source: Stokes Economic Consulting, July 2018 Forecast

12                     Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
3.3 Trends in Apprenticeship
The number of apprentices swelled across Canada in                                       The 2008-2009 recession had a similar negative
the first decade of this century, a period of prolonged                                  impact on new registrations resulting in a 23% drop
resource-driven expansion. The number of registered                                      in new registrations in 2009. This 2009 decline,
apprentices in the top 10 Red Seal trades increased                                      however, was followed by a relatively quick recovery
by 50% over 6 years from 99,500 in 2004 to 145,300                                       driven by a rebound in oil and commodity prices,
in 2010. From 2010 to 2018, the overall number                                           significant infrastructure investment and an increase
of apprentices remained relatively flat, despite                                         in new housing construction. New registrations rose
significant growth in employment for a number of                                         steadily from 2009 and recovered to 2008 levels
apprenticeable skilled trades. A downward trend in                                       by 2014. The current economic outlook suggests
the annual number of newly certified journeypersons                                      that new registrations are unlikely to record any
poses potential risks for the future availability of                                     significant gains and will remain near current
skilled tradespeople as Canada’s skilled workforce                                       levels, close to 2009, over the coming decade. The
continues to age and retirements accelerate. The                                         chart below shows the trends in new registrations,
following section provides an analysis of trends in                                      completions and trades employment.
apprenticeship registrations and completions in the
top 10 Red Seal trades.

Between 2014 and 2017, annual new registrations for
the 10 largest Red Seal trades contracted by 20%.
There were 7,100 fewer new registrants. The decline
can be directly attributed to the collapse in oil and
other commodity prices in 2014 which resulted in
declining resource sector investments.

  Figure 9- New Registrations, Completions and Employment in Top 10 Red Seal Trades, Canada, 2000 to 2019

                                                                                                                      PEAK
  200                                                                                                                                       PROJECTION
                                                                    PEAK

  150

  100

    50      2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010    2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019

             Completions                 Registrations                Employment
  Source: Statistics Canada, RAIS, Custom Aggregation, Top 10 Red Seal Trades; LFS
  Notes: *2018 and 2019 estimates

                                                                                                  Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report         13
3.4 Provincial Trends
     Based on 2017 RAIS data, Alberta still accounts for     Figure 10- Change (%) in New Registrations by
     the largest number of apprentices (54,160) registered   Province, Top 10 Red Seal Trades, 2014 to 2017,
     in the top 10 Red Seal trades in Canada. Alberta        Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories)
     apprentices represent 32% of the total apprentice       Atlantic Canada                                                    -7%
     population. Ontario follows with 28% and Quebec         Overall                                                           -27%
     with 23%.                                               PEI                                                                10%
     The impact of declines in resource sector investments   Newfoundland & Labrador                                           -34%
     were felt strongest in Alberta, Saskatchewan and        Nova Scotia                                                        17%
     Newfoundland and Labrador where new registrations       New Brunswick                                                      -5%
     dropped by 50%, 40%, and 35% respectively. A            Ontario                                                            -4%
     decline of 8,141 new registrations in Alberta between   Manitoba                                                           -9%
                                                             Saskatchewan                                                      -40%
     2014 and 2017 represents 76% of the total declines
                                                             Alberta                                                           -50%
     across all provinces, excluding Quebec. Most
                                                             British Columbia                                                  -20%
     provinces experienced declines over the same period,                              -50% -40% -30% -20% -10%   0%    10%   20%
     with Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island notable
     exceptions. Alberta’s share of new registrations fell
     from 39% in 2014 to 26% in 2017, while in the same
     time period, Ontario’s share rose from 26% to 34%.

     Figure 11- Distribution (%) of New Registrations by
                                                             Figure 12- Distribution (%) of New Registrations
     Province, 2017
                                                             by Province, 2014, 2017

                               Manitoba 4%                    Saskatchewan                                                      5%
                                                                                                                                4%
                Saskatchewan 5%                                                                                                 4%
                                                              Manitoba
                                                                                                                                5%
          Atlantic
                                                              Atlantic Canada                                                   6%
         Canada 8%                                                                                                              8%
                                                              British Columbia                                                 20%
                                                                                                                               24%
                                                              Alberta                                                          39%
                                            Alberta 32%                                                                        26%
                          British                             Ontario                                                          26%
                                                                                                                               34%
                      Columbia 23%                                                       0    5    10   15   20    25    30    35    40

                                                               New Reg Share (%) 2014
                                     Ontario 28%               New Reg Share (%) 2017

14                   Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
3.5 Trade Trends
New registrations fell in every Red Seal trade between 2014 and 2017
with declines most pronounced among the following trade programs:
steamfitter/pipefitter (-58%), welder (-55%) and heavy-duty equipment
technician (-39%). Employment in these trades is highly concentrated in
the engineering, construction, industrial and oil and gas sectors.

The significant decline in new registrations follows significant increases
for most trades during the expansion period from 2011 to 2014,
especially for the steamfitter/pipefitter, construction electrician and
plumber trades which increased by 74%, 41%, and 36% respectively. The
rapid increase reflects the rise in resource sector-driven demand, but
also the strengthening of non-residential and residential construction
requirements. Larger increases were also recorded for trades with
compulsory certification.

Cook and hairstylist programs have experienced an extended downward
trend in new registrations since 2010. Demand for service sector
professionals is reliant on consumer spending, which experienced
declines following the 2008-2009 downturn. As a result, employment
and training demands in these trades have been slower to recover.

      Figure 13- New Apprenticeship Registrations by Trade, 2014 to 2017

           TOP 10 RED SEAL                                                                         % CHANGE
                                       2014           2015           2016             2017
                 TRADES                                                                             (2014-17)
       Automotive Service                  4,837         4,579             4,149          4,358           -10%
       Technician
       Carpenter                           4,985         5,278             4,707          4,749             -5%
       Construction Electrician           10,571         8,849             7,479          7,351            -30%
       Cook                                2,533         2,364             2,273          2,058            -19%
       Hairstylist                         3,459         3,108             2,927          2,953            -15%
       Heavy-Duty Equipment                2,762         1,753             1,327          1,674            -39%
       Technician
       Industrial Mechanic                 2,025         1,846             1,520          1,771            -13%
       (Millwright)
       Plumber                             3,935         3,548          3,280             3,086            -22%
       Steamfitter/Pipefitter              3,045         2,083          1,594             1,269            -58%
       Welder                              4,992         3,118          2,214             2,271            -55%
       Total                              43,144        36,526         31,470            31,540            -27%

                                                                 Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report   15
Figure 14- Change (%) in Average Annual New Registrations by Trade,
         2011 to 2014, and 2014 to 2017

          Automotive Service Technician                                             -10%
                                                                                     18%
          Carpenter                                                                  -5%
                                                                                      0%
          Construction Electrician                                                  -30%
                                                                                     41%
          Cook                                                                      -19%
                                                                                    -19%
          Hairstylist                                                               -15%
                                                                                    -11%
          Heavy Duty Equipment Technician                                           -39%
                                                                                     22%
          Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)                                          -13%
                                                                                      8%
          Plumber                                                                   -22%
                                                                                     36%
          Steamfitter/Pipefitter                                                    -58%
                                                                                     74%
          Welder                                                                    -55%
                                                                                     22%
          Total                                                                     -27%
                                                                                     18%
           2014 to 2017
                                   -60%      -40%   -20%   0%   20%   40%   60%   80%
           2011 to 2014

     3.6 Outcome Trends
     This section provides an overview of trends in apprentice completions, completion rates and earnings.

     Program Completions
     The number of apprentices completing programs and                  Figure 15 outlines how the number of apprentices
     awarded a Certificate of Qualification (C of Q) tends to           completing their apprenticeship programs and
     be much less volatile compared to new registrations.               obtaining a C of Q nearly doubled from 10,926 in 2006
     The proportion of apprentices going on to complete                 to a record high of 20,682 in 2013. This 2013 high
     their respective programs remains generally stable.                reflects both the peak in registrations in 2008 and
     But the time taken to complete and the completion                  also the surge in completions (primarily carpenters
     rates can be impacted by overall labour market                     and plumbers) in Ontario.4 The significant drop-
     conditions. For example, it may take longer to                     off in new registrations after 2008 constrained the
     complete an apprenticeship program if an apprentice                number of new journeypersons to below 19,000 per
     experiences layoffs during an economic downturn.                   year between 2014 and 2017. The downward trend in
                                                                        program completions since 2013 reflects weakening
                                                                        economic conditions that translated to fewer hours,
                                                                        longer times to complete programs and an increase
                                                                        in discontinuations. The recent decline and flattening
                                                                        in new registrations is expected to result in a lower
                                                                        number of new journeypersons in the future.

16                       Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Figure 15- Trends in New Registrations and Completion, 2003 to 2018, Canada (excluding Quebec and
    the Territories)

                  2003   2004   2005     2006   2007   2008   2009    2010   2011   2012   2013    2014   2015   2016   2017   2018

                   New Registrations              Completions

Figure 16- Distribution of Completions by Provinces, 2011            Figure 17- Change in Completions, 2011 to 2012, Canada
to 2012, Canada (excluding Quebec and the Territories)               (excluding Quebec and the Territories)

                     Saskatchewan 6%
                                                                      Saskatchewan                                             -7%
              Manitoba 4%
       Atlantic                                                       Manitoba                                                 -4%
      Canada 7%
                                                                      Atlantic Canada                                           0%
                                                                      British Columbia                                          9%
                                       Ontario 33%
                  British                                             Alberta                                                  10%
              Columbia 17%
                                                                      Ontario                                                  16%
                         Alberta 33%                                                        -10%          0%        10%        20%

                                                                             Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report           17
In 2017, Ontario with 6,165 and Alberta with 6,021 accounted for two-
     thirds (66%) of the 18,477 newly certified journeypersons in Canada,
     excluding Quebec and Territories. Ontario reported the largest
     increase (16%) in completions since 2011, an increase driven by
     continued expansion in construction and service sector employment.
     Alberta’s completions were 10% higher in 2017 compared to 2011,
     reflecting significant increases during the peak of the province’s
     resource expansion. These rates were down 5% from 2016. This trend
     is expected to continue due to much slower growth compared with
     the previous decade.

     The following trades: steamfitter/pipefitter (+407, 59%), cook (+314, 45%)
     and construction electrician (+236, 5%) experienced the largest increases
     in completions between 2011 and 2017. Gains were largely driven by
     increases within individual provinces, notably Alberta, BC and Ontario.
     Over the same period, completions declined in the carpenter (-652, -30%)
     and plumber (-270, -14%) trades. Figure 18 illustrates the change in
     completions between 2011 and 2017 by trade.

       Figure 18- Percent Change (%) in Program Completions, Canada
       (excluding Quebec and the Territories), 2011 to 2017

        Automotive Service Technician                                                     84, 4%
        Carpenter                                                                   -652, -30%
        Construction Electrician                                                         236, 5%
        Cook                                                                         314, 45%
        Hairstylist                                                                       57, 3%
        Heavy Duty Equipment Technician                                              179, 18%
        Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)                                             142, 12%
        Plumber                                                                     -270, -14%
        Steamfitter/Pipefitter                                                       407, 59%
        Welder                                                                           -9, -1%
        Total                                                                            486, 3%
                                   -30     -20   -10   0   10   20   30   40   50   60

18                          Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Completion Rates
The completion rate represents the percentage of apprentices that
successfully complete their apprenticeship programs and receive a
C of Q. Calculating completion rates is useful for tracking outcomes for
apprentices. The role that apprenticeship and trade certification plays
in the labour market depends on many factors, including regulations
and market conditions.

Historically, completion rates have remained around 50% in Canada, but
these vary by trade and by region.5 Several factors impact completion rates:

• Compulsory Certification: In order to work in a         • Economic Conditions: Economic conditions
  compulsory trade, a worker must be a registered           impact apprentices’ abilities to progress. If they are
  apprentice who is progressing towards certification       laid off, it is difficult to earn hours towards their
  in the trade or a certified journeyperson.                apprenticeship. In tight labour markets, employers
                                                            may not want to release their apprentices to go to
• Income: According to the National Apprenticeship          technical training.
  Survey, completion is associated with higher pay
  after certification.6                                   • Technical Training: Some apprentices feel they
                                                            cannot afford to go back to technical training and
• Employer Requirements: Industrial sector                  receive Employment Insurance instead of their
  employers tend to demand a C of Q.                        full wages. These apprentices stay at their current
                                                            level and do not progress in their apprenticeship.
• Sectoral Differences: Individuals in service sector
                                                            Statistics Canada has recently started to compile
  trades may use entry into an apprenticeship to gain
                                                            cohort-based measures of completion rates by
  knowledge and “get a foot in the door,” but there
                                                            trade and tracking certification rates for apprentices
  tends to be less incentive to complete because the
                                                            that complete their programs within 1.5x program
  employer is satisfied with a Level 2 apprentice.
                                                            duration. New data suggest that despite the 2009
                                                            recession, completion rates among the top 10 Red
                                                            Seal trades have remained relatively stable between
                                                            the 2008 and 2010 cohorts.7

The proportion of apprentices in Canada that registered in 2010 and
completed their programs within 1.5x of the program duration ranged
between 49% for construction electricians and 28.6% for cooks. The
completion rates for individual programs are outlined in Figure 19. Each
trade indicates changes in completion rate within 5.5 percentage points.
Between 2008 and 2010, hairstylist (-0.8%), automotive service technician
(-5.4%) and steamfitter-pipefitter (-3.3%) all saw modest declines in their
completion rates. During the same period, welder (3.8%), cook (3.9%),
carpenter (0.6%), plumber (2.5%), industrial mechanic (millwright) (4.0%)
and construction electrician (2.0%) experienced modest increases in their
completion rates. Automotive service technician saw the largest change
in completion rate with a 5.4% decrease between 2008 and 2010. The
heavy-duty equipment technician trade saw virtually no change during
this period (0.1%) with a 42% completion rate.

                                                                  Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report     19
Figure 19- Completion Rate (%) within 1.5x Program Duration by Trade, 2008 and 2010

      Hairstylist [6341]
                                                                                              45.6%
                                                                                              46.4%
      Welder [7237]
                                                                                              36.7%
                                                                                              32.9%
      Cook [6322]
                                                                                              28.6%
                                                                                              24.7%
      Carpenter [7271]
                                                                                              31.8%
                                                                                              31.2%
      Automotive Service Technician [7321]
                                                                                              33.9%
                                                                                              39.3%
      Steamfitter/Pipefitter [7252]
                                                                                                35%
                                                                                              38.3%
      Heavy Duty Equipment Technician [7312]                                                  42.3%
                                                                                              42.2%
      Plumber [7251]                                                                          42.5%
                                                                                                40%
      Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) [7311]                                                 50.5%
                                                                                              46.5%
      Construction Electrician [7241]                                                           49%
                                                                                                47%

                                                0   10       20    30         40         50       60
        2008               2010

     Completion rates at the provincial level were measured as a ratio of completions to
     registrations in the past period equal to the expected duration of a specific program.
     Completion rates decreased in the Atlantic Provinces, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The
     rates increased in Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia. Saskatchewan has
     maintained the highest rate at 63%, but even this “high” of 2013 is a decline from the
     province’s rate of 69% in 2010.

     Figure 20- Average Completion Rates, Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Province 2010 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017

     Total                                                                                                   52%
                                                                                                             53%

     Prince Edward Island                                                                                    47%
                                                                                                             61%

     New Brunswick                                                                                           53%
                                                                                                             64%

     Nova Scotia                                                                                             45%
                                                                                                             46%

     Newfoundland/Labrador                                                                                   50%
                                                                                                             55%

     Manitoba                                                                                                49%
                                                                                                             62%

     Saskatchewan                                                                                            63%
                                                                                                             69%

     Quebec                                                                                                  55%
                                                                                                             52%

     Ontario                                                                                                 60%
                                                                                                             50%

     British Columbia                                                                                        46%
                                                                                                             41%

     Alberta                                                                                                 50%
                                                                                                             44%

                                  0%         10%    20%      30%        40%        50%         60%     70%    80%
        2010-2013                 2014-2017

20                           Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Average Time to Program Completion
Statistics Canada estimates apprentices take, on average, approximately 3.5 years
to complete a program. This varies widely, however, depending on individual trade
program requirements. Hairstylists take the least time to complete (1.5 years). Plumbers
and construction electricians each take about 4.4 years to become certified. The time to
complete is also impacted by economic and labour market conditions. Weaker economic
conditions lengthen the time it takes to become certified and reduce the likelihood an
individual will complete. For example, apprentices who registered following the 2008-2009
recession took less time to complete than those who registered in 2008. During periods of
slower growth, increased layoffs and reduced work opportunities make it more difficult for
apprentices to reach work hour requirements. This increases the risk of them discontinuing
their training programs. This trend was a key factor in the declining completion rates
and increased time to complete in provinces most negatively impacted by the economic
downturn. Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador were the provinces
most impacted.

 Figure 21- Median Time to Certification within 1.5x Program Duration, Canada, 2008 and 2010

   Hairstylist [6341]
                                                                                            1.5
                                                                                            1.6
   Welder [7237]
                                                                                            2.9
                                                                                            2.9
   Cook [6322]
                                                                                            2.1
                                                                                            2.7
   Carpenter [7271]
                                                                                            3.9
                                                                                            4.1
   Automotive Service Technician [7321]
                                                                                            3.9
                                                                                            3.9
   Steamfitter/Pipefitter [7252]
                                                                                            3.7
                                                                                              4
   Heavy Duty Equipment Technician [7312]                                                   3.9
                                                                                            3.9
   Plumber [7251]                                                                           4.2
                                                                                            4.4
   Industrial Mechanic (Millwright) [7311]                                                  3.9
                                                                                            3.9
   Construction Electrician [7241]                                                          4.3
                                                                                            4.4

                                             0   1        2          3            4             5

                                                                Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report   21
Trends in Earnings
     Statistics Canada recently began tracking earnings of apprentices after
     certification by linking RAIS data to tax files, resulting in better tracking
     of apprentice labour market outcomes. The data show that earnings at
     certification have been increasing, especially two years post-certification.
     Income increases peaked in 2011, when completers earned $18,000 more
     than they did the year they completed their programs. This trend occurred
     during a period of peak employment in Canada following the recession
     in 2009, where employees worked a higher number of hours and earned
     increased wages. Those who completed apprenticeship programs in 2014
     caught the end of this growth wave and are now seeing modest changes
     in income two years after completing their program.

         Figure 22- Income and Percent Change after Completion, 2008-2014

                                            MEDIAN EMPLOYMENT MEDIAN EMPLOYMENT
            COMPLETION YEAR                     INCOME (AT      INCOME (2 YEARS                                                            % CHANGE
                                             COMPLETION YEAR)  POST-COMPLETION)
                    2008                           60,685            69,665                                                                 14.8%
                    2009                           54,745            70,190                                                                 28.2%
                    2010                           57,180            74,780                                                                 30.8%
                    2011                           57,215            75,690                                                                 32.3%
                    2012                           59,355            76,205                                                                 28.4%
                    2013                           60,230            70,960                                                                 17.8%
                    2014                           61,135            63,590                                                                  4.0%

         Figure 23- Median Employment Income ($) at Certification and 2 years after Certification, 2008 to 2014

                                                                                         $75,690             $76,205
         80000               $69,665             $70,190
                                                                     $74,780
                                                                                                                                 $70,960
                   $60,685                                                                         $59,355             $60,230              $61,135 $63,590
                                                           $57,180             $57,215
         60000                         $57,745

         40000

         20000

               0
                       2008                2009                2010                2011                2012                2013                 2014

                                           At Year of Completion                            2 Years Post-Completion

22                   Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
4.0
Certification Requirements and
Completions: A National Outlook
The following section provides a forward-looking assessment of apprenticeship program
registrations, completions and workforce certification requirements for the five-year
period from 2019 to 2023. A more in-depth provincial analysis of trade-specific training
and certification requirements and supply of new journeypersons is provided in separate
provincial and regional reports.

Certification requirements for skilled trades and estimates of the required number of new
journeypersons are determined by many inter-related factors. The supply of new certified
workers is met by either apprenticeship completers or trade qualifiers. Completers are
individuals who complete an apprenticeship program and are awarded a C of Q. Trade
qualifiers are workers who have significant work experience and, if they pass the C of Q
exam, are awarded certification. Although trade qualifiers contribute positively to the
supply of certified workers, a significant proportion hold multiple tickets or are existing
skilled workers who move between provinces or countries. Consequentially, they do not
represent an addition of skills in the workforce or an increase in demand for apprenticeship
training. The analysis in this report focuses on apprentice completers. Estimates of new
journeypersons are based on projections of new registrations and completions.

Figure 24 outlines projections of registrations based on anticipated changes in employment,
age demographics and completions assuming that recent trends in completion rates for
individual trade and provinces remain consistent.

The economic and employment growth outlook suggests that between 2019 and 2023,
new registrations in Red Seal programs will increase modestly from 32,184 to 33,150.
Completions are expected to remain flat, hovering below 17,000.

Figure 24- Trends in Apprenticeship Program Registrations and Completions, Top 10 Red Seal
Trades, 2008 to 2023

 50000

 40000

 30000

 20000

 10000

      0   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007    2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014   2015   2016     2017   2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023

                                             New Registrations                                  Completions

                                                                                                             Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report     23
4.1 Workforce Certification Requirements
     The skilled trades workforce is composed of certified                  trades and occupations. Future requirements are
     and non-certified workers. The proportion varies                       driven by the following variables:
     across trades, sectors and provinces due, in part, to
     differences in regulations and industry requirements.                  1. Changes in employment for the apprenticeable (or
     The central question posed in the assessment of                           principal) trade;
     workforce certification requirements is: How many                      2. Labour force retirements and deaths of individuals
     newly certified journeypersons are required to                            employed in the apprenticeable (or principal) trade;
     maintain the current share of certified workers for
     a skilled trade in the workforce? Because a C of Q                     3. Changes in employment for related trades and
     is held by individuals as they move between jobs                          occupations;
     and progress in their careers, the analysis must
     also consider certification rates of related trades                    4. Retirements of certified workers in related trades
     and occupations. A related trade or occupation is an                      and occupations.
     occupation that requires or benefits from the skills
                                                                            In the next five years, an estimated 47,278 newly
     and qualifications as represented by a C of Q
                                                                            certified journeypersons will be required to maintain
     but does not have an apprenticeship program
                                                                            certification requirements for skilled workers in the
     attached to it. Most often, these related occupations
                                                                            top 10 Red Seal trades. Nearly three-quarters (73%)
     are managerial or supervisor positions. The total
                                                                            of this requirement is attributed to the expected
     trade certification and training requirement is the
                                                                            age-related exits of 34,556 certified workers from the
     sum of journeypersons required to maintain stable
                                                                            workforce through retirement or death.
     certification rates in both the principal and related

     Ontario is projected to lead
     demand for journeypersons over                 Figure 25- Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades
     the next five years requiring an               between 2019 and 2023 by Province
     estimated 19,144 newly certified
     journeypersons working directly in
                                                    British Columbia              2,486    6,078                               8,564 TOTAL
     the top 10 Red Seal trades. Alberta
     and British Columbia follow Ontario            Alberta                       4,694            8,147                      12,841 TOTAL
     with requirements of 12,841                    Saskatchewan            952            1,496                               2,447 TOTAL
     and 8,564 new journeypersons                                                                                              1,123 TOTAL
                                                    Manitoba                 16      1,107
     respectively. The employment
     levels will remain stable in Atlantic          Ontario                       5,550              13,595                   19,144 TOTAL
     Canada, but there will still be a              Atlantic Canada (976)         4,134                                        3,159 TOTAL
     need for 3,159 new journeypersons
                                                                (3000)        0           3000      6000      9000    12000     15000     18000     21000
     due to retirements. Certification
     requirements are partly                             Employment Certification Demand (Principal)           Replacement Certifications (Principal)
     constrained in Atlantic Canada
     due to employment declines in
     Newfoundland and Labrador.

24                  Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
In addition to the certification requirements represented by hiring requirements for the top 10 Red
Seal trades, an additional 19,704 new journeypersons will be required to meet the hiring requirements
represented by related trades and occupations. These related occupations tend to draw from the
existing pool of certified workers and hire these individuals as managers, supervisors and contractors.
It is estimated that over the next five years, 67,000 new journeypersons will be required for the top 10
Red Seal trades across Canada, excluding Quebec and the Territories.

Figure 26- Total Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades between 2019 and 2023 by Province

        British Columbia          8,564                 5,400                                      13,964 TOTAL
        Alberta                   12,841                            6,116                          18,957 TOTAL
        Saskatchewan 2,447                 1,110                                                     3,557 TOTAL
        Manitoba          1,123      772                                                             1,895 TOTAL
        Ontario                   19,144                                             5,135         24,280 TOTAL
        Atlantic Canada           3,159     1,171                                                    4,329 TOTAL
                              0            5000         10000        15000         20000         25000
           Total Certification Requirement (Principal)                      Total Related Certification (Principal)

Figure 27 provides a breakdown of national certification requirements by trade, including changes in
employment and replacement demand (retirements and deaths), for the top 10 Red Seal trades. Principal
and related trades and occupations are considered. It is worth noting that a larger proportion of certification
requirements for the carpenter and cook trades are driven by demand in the related trades and occupations.

Figure 27- Certification Requirements for Top 10 Red Seal Trades between 2019 and 2023 by Trade

                                                    EMPLOYMENT        REPLACEMENT
                                                    CERTIFICATION     CERTIFICATION            RELATED          TOTAL
                  TRADE                                DEMAND            DEMAND              CERTIFICATION   CERTIFICATION
                                                      (PRINCIPAL        (PRINCIPAL             DEMAND          DEMAND
                                                        TRADE)            TRADE)
 Auto Service Technician                                    1,796                4,519               2,438             8,754
 Carpenter                                                  (643)                4,449               3,661             7,466
 Construction Electrician                                   2,553                6,472               4,254            13,279
 Cook                                                         768                1,147               3,075             4,990
 Hairstylist                                                2,048                4,117               1,068             7,233
 Heavy-Duty Equipment Technician                              653                2,387               1,578             4,610
 Industrial Mechanic (Millwright)                           2,411                4,182                 743             7,336
 Plumber                                                      889                2,267               1,140             4,296
 Steamfitter/Pipefitter                                       692                1,375                 651             2,718
 Welder                                                     1,555                3,651               1,096             6,301
 Total                                                     12,722               34,556              19,704            66,982

                                                                        Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report         25
4.2 Future Supply of New Journeypersons
     Nearly 164,100 apprentices are expected to register in the top 10 Red Seal trades between
     2019 and 2023. This figure is down approximately 9% compared with registrations over
     the past five years when new registrations averaged about 36,000 per year. This period
     spanned the peak in 2014 as well as the significant declines in 2015 and 2016. Looking
     ahead, total new registrations are expected to decline to an average just over 32,800 per
     year over the next five years, reflecting a period of projected slower employment growth.
     Declines are expected in every province, except Ontario where average annual registrations
     are projected to rise by 9% to just over 11,000 per year. Alberta is projected to experience
     the most significant decline. New registrations are expected to average 8,750, representing
     a decrease of 23% compared with the average over the previous 5 years.

     Figures 28 and 29 illustrate the average total registrations for the top 10 Red Seal trades
     by province and by trade respectively for the last five years, 2013 to 2018, and then from
     the 2019 to 2023 forecast period. At the trade level, the largest declines are expected in the
     welder, steam-fitter/pipefitter and construction electrician programs.

     Figure 28- Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Province, Historic
     (2013 to 2018) and Projected (2019 to 2023)

     12000                                         11,359
                                                                                                                                 10,632 11,087

                     8,508                                    8,752
                                 7,878
       8000

       4000
                                                                             1,490     1,179         1,659       1,557
                                                                                                                                                           661        590
            0
                           BC            AL            SK                                              MN            ON            ATL
                           New Registrations 2013 to 2018                                           New Registrations 2019 to 2023
     Source: Statistics Canada, RAIS, CANTRAQ Prism Economics (2019)

     Figure 29- Average Annual New Registrations in Top 10 Red Seal Trades, Historic (2013 to 2018)
     and Projected (2019 to 2023)

     10000
                                                     8,518
                                                             7,689

       6000        4,820 4,541       4,941 4,715

                                                                                     3,163 3,076                                   3,426 3,230                   3,194
                                                                      2,351 2,173                                                                2,070                   2,367
                                                                                                   1,961 1,748     1,846 1,900
       2000                                                                                                                                              1,374

            0
                Auto Service Tech.           Construction Electrician                Hairstylist             Industrial Mechanic            Steamfitter/Pipefitter
                                                                                                                 (Millwright)
                                     Carpenter                          Cook                 Heavy Duty Equip. Tech.                Plumber                          Welder

                           New Registrations 2013 to 2018                                           New Registrations 2019 to 2023

     Source: Statistics Canada, RAIS, CANTRAQ Prism Economics (2019)

26                           Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Gaps in Supply and Demand
The build up in new registrations to peak levels           Looking ahead, completions are expected to decline
in 2014 has translated to high completion                  from an annual average of nearly 18,050 between
levels for several trades through to 2018. The             2013 and 2018, to 16,200 per year between 2019
recent declines, however, in construction sector           to 2023. Certification requirements are expected
employment in Alberta and Newfoundland and                 to recover. The largest share of declines and
Labrador have resulted in an “overshoot” in the            recovery in certification requirements are expected
number of newly certified workers relative to              in Alberta. This is driven by the significant drop in
demand. There is a downside risk to projected              new registrations that occurred between 2014 and
completions during a period of generally                   2016, followed by the anticipated recovery ahead.
weaker labour market conditions. Fewer job                 The analysis suggests that given the current level
opportunities and declines in available work               of new registrations, any significant acceleration
hours will likely extend the average time to               of demand requirements could pose significant
complete as well as lower completion rates                 recruiting challenges. In British Columbia, the average
among those apprentices who registered after               annual completions are expected to increase over the
2015. In British Columbia, the analysis suggests           next 5 years, just as demands are no longer at their
that completions lagged behind certification               peak level after 2021. A similar divergence in trends,
requirements. Continued expansion appears to               though on a smaller scale, is expected in Manitoba
have driven demand for certified workers ahead             as major hydro and utilities sector projects wind
of the supply of newly certified journeypersons.           down. In Atlantic Canada, certification requirements
                                                           are expected to remain stable over the near term
                                                           as declines in employment in Newfoundland
                                                           and Labrador are offset by more stable levels of
                                                           employment across the other Atlantic provinces.
                                                           Rising retirements will be a key driver of training
                                                           needs. There is a potential risk of completions falling
                                                           behind certification requirements as demand recovers
                                                           in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2025 and beyond.

                                                           At the trade level, the analysis suggests there is a
                                                           potential risk that certification requirements may
                                                           run ahead of completions for a number of trades
                                                           including welders, millwrights and cooks.

Figure 30- Average Total Completions in the Top 10 Red Seal Trades by Province

8000

6000

4000

2000

    0

              Demand 2013 to 2018                              Demand 2019 to 2023
              Completions 2013 to 2018                         Completions 2019 to 2023

                                                                  Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report     27
Figure 31- Average Annual Certification Demand by Red Seal Trade, Canada, 2013 to 2018 and
     2019 to 2023

     5000

     3000

     1000
          0
              Auto Service Tech.                Construction Electrician                    Hairstylist                      Industrial Mechanic                  Steamfitter/Pipefitter
                                                                                                                                 (Millwright)
                                    Carpenter                              Cook                           Heavy Duty Equip. Tech.                       Plumber                                Welder

                            Demand 2013 to 2018                                                                      Demand 2019 to 2023
                            Completions 2013 to 2018                                                                 Completions 2019 to 2023

     Target Registrations
     To meet certification requirements, an estimated 167,800 apprentices are likely to be
     required over the next five years. Although this trend is similar to the projected number
     of apprentices (164,100) at the national level, there are significant differences between
     projections and requirements for individual trades and by province. For more information,
     see the provincial and regional reports.

          V2
         Figure 32- Average Annual Registration Targets by Trade
          8000                            7,237 6,980

          6000                                                              5,335              5,200
                                                                   4,457            4,272                 4,302
                                3,982                      3,880                                                                                                                           3,819
          4000                                                                                                                                                                                     3,289
                        2,898                                                                                                        2,941

                                                                                                                                                        1,741 1,920
          2000                                                                                                            1,651              1,732
                                                                                                                                                                          1,222 974
                                                                                                                    676

                0
                     Auto Service Tech.               Construction Electrician                   Hairstylist                      Industrial Mechanic                 Steamfitter/Pipefitter
                                                                                                                                      (Millwright)
                                          Carpenter                               Cook                       Heavy Duty Equip. Tech.                      Plumber                              Welder

                                    Target Registrations 2013 to 2018                                        Target Registrations 2019 to 2023

28                        Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
Figure 33- Projected Registrations, Projected Completions, Certifications Required and Target
Registrations by Province

                             PROJECTED         PROJECTED       CERTIFICATIONS          TARGET
       PROVINCE            REGISTRATIONS      COMPLETIONS        REQUIRED           REGISTRATIONS
 British Columbia                   39,389           15,164              13,964             49,788
 Alberta                            43,760           20,863              18,957             48,244
 Saskatchewan                        5,896            3,717               3,557               6,462
 Manitoba                            7,784            3,801               1,895               5,510
 Ontario                            55,436           31,701              24,280             46,413
 Atlantic Canada                    11,803            5,759               4,329              11,376
 TOTAL                             164,068           81,006              66,982             167,793

Figure 34- Projected Registrations, Projected Completions, Certifications Required and Target
Registrations by Trade

                              PROJECTED        PROJECTED        CERTIFICATIONS         TARGET
         TRADE              REGISTRATIONS     COMPLETIONS         REQUIRED          REGISTRATIONS
Auto Service                        22,705             9,952              8,754              19,908
Technician
Carpenter                           23,577             7,477              7,466              34,900
Construction                        38,444            24,831             13,279              22,286
Electrician
Cook                                10,863             2,607              4,990              21,358
Hairstylist                         15,381             9,312              7,233              21,512
Heavy-Duty Equipment                 8,740             4,408              4,610               8,253
Technician
Industrial Mechanic                  9,501             5,561               7,336               8,658
(Millwright)
Plumber                             16,151             8,872              4,296               9,602
Steamfitter/Pipefitter               6,872             2,960              2,718               4,872
Welder                              11,834             5,026              6,301              16,444
TOTAL                              164,068            81,006             66,982              167,793

                                                         Apprenticeship Demand LMI National 2019 Report   29
5.0
     Conclusion
     This report summarizes apprenticeship trends
     data and projections from the CANTRAQ system
     providing an assessment of demand and supply for
     trade certification across the top 10 Red Seal trades
     in Canada. The results indicate that over the next
     five years, an estimated 66,982 new journeypersons
     will be required as well as 167,793 new apprentices.
     Helping apprentices to progress and complete their
     programs remains important given the demand for
     certification. A downward trend in the annual number
     of newly certified journeypersons poses potential
     risks for the future availability of skilled tradespersons
     as Canada’s skilled workforce continues to age and
     retirement rates accelerate.

        1. Quebec programs are not included in the trade-specific analysis due to differences in program
            classifications and inconsistencies in historical data series.

        2. Andrew Sharpe and James Gibson, Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS), The Apprenticeship
           System in Canada: Trends and Issues (Ottawa: CSLS Research Report, September 2005).

        3. BuildForce, Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward National Highlights, 2019-2028 (Ottawa:
           BuildForce Canada, 2019).

        4. The implementation of the Ontario College of Trades may have impacted the increase in
           completions in Ontario.

        5. See Sandrine Prasil, Registered Apprentices: The Class of 1992, A Decade Later (Ottawa: Statistics
           Canada, 2005); Denis Morissette, Registered Apprentices: The Cohort of 1993, A Decade Later,
           Comparisons with the 1992 Cohort (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2008); and Louise Desjardins and Nicole
           Paquin, Registered Apprentices: The Cohorts of 1994 and 1995, One Decade Later (Ottawa: Statistics
           Canada, 2010).

        6. Kristyn Frank and Emily Jovic, National Apprenticeship Survey Canada Overview Report 2015, (Ottawa:
           Statistics Canada, 2017).

        7. Due to the variance in program duration and the measure of completions using 1.5x program duration,
           the completion rates for new registrants in 2010 are the most recent available.

30                   Canadian Apprenticeship Forum
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