Being Prepared for Climate Change - Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks
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Being Prepared for Climate Change Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks
Cover photograph: Waquoit Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve. From: National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration/Department of Commerce, photographer Rick Crawford
Contents
Table 3-1a. Potential climate change risks for pollution control
Table 3-1b. Potential climate change risks for habitat
Table 3-1c. Potential climate change risks for fish, wildlife and plants
Table 3-1d. Potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies
Tables 3-1e(i) and 3-1e(ii). Potential climate change risks for human health
Table 3-1f. Potential climate change risks for floodplain management
Table 3-1g. Potential climate change risks for wetland habitats
Table 3-2. Organizational goals
Risk identification checklists help environmental professionals think about how climate change might
affect their organization or place. Checklist items are potential risks that could be inferred by crossing
climate change stressors with the given goals. The EPA publication, Being Prepared for Climate Change:
A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans (EPA 842-K-14-002, August 2014) has more
information about risks, risk identification and risk analysis. Tables 3-1a through 3-1d and Table 3-2 were
originally published in that workbook.
In the electronic pdf version of this document, the checklist checkboxes are selectable. If checkboxes are
selected, then that information can be retained by saving the document or printing checklist pages.
The Being Prepared for Climate Change workbook and this document are available via the Climate Ready
Estuaries website, www.epa.gov/cre.
EPA 840-K-21-001
April 2021Table 3-1a. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for PolluTion conTrol Checklist of potential climate change risks for pollution control for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act pollution goals.
Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Act goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification
Controlling o Loss of melting o Temperature o Critical-low o Combined o Treatment plants
point sources winter snows may criteria for flow criteria for sewer overflows may not be able to
reduce spring discharges may be discharging may may increase discharge via gravity
of pollution or summer flow exceeded (thermal not be met at higher water levels
o Treatment
and cleaning volume, and pollution) o Pollutant plants may go o Treatment
up pollution raise pollutant o Warmer concentrations offline during infrastructure may
concentration in temperatures may may increase if intense floods be susceptible to
receiving waters increase toxicity of sources stay the flooding
pollutants same and flow o Sewage may mix
diminishes with seawater in
combined sewer
systems
o Contaminated sites
may flood or have
shoreline erosion
o Sewer pipes may
have more inflow
(floods) or infiltration
(higher water table)
Controlling o Wildfires o Longer growing o Higher solubility o Pollution o Streams may o Tidal flooding may o Decomposing
nonpoint may lead to season can lead may lead to higher sources may see greater extend to new areas, organic matter
soil erosion to more lawn concentration of build up on land, erosion and scour leading to additional releases carbon
sources of maintenance with pollutants followed by high- sources of pollution dioxide, which
o Urban areas
pollution fertilizers and o Water may hold
intensity flushes may be subject to
may exacerbate
pesticides the ocean
less dissolved more floods
acidification
oxygen o Flood control problem in
o Higher surface facilities (e.g., coastal waters
temperatures may detention
lead to stratification basins, manure
management) may
o Greater algae
be inadequate
growth may occur
o High rainfall
o Parasites,
may cause septic
bacteria may have
systems to fail
greater survival or
transmissionTable 3-1b. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for habiTaT Checklist of potential climate change risks for habitat for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act habitat goals.
Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Act goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification
Restoring o Higher o Less snow, o Warmer water o Groundwater o The number of o Shoreline erosion
and temperatures more rain may may lead to greater tables may drop storms reaching may lead to loss of
may lead change the likelihood of an intensity that beaches, wetlands
protecting to greater runoff/infiltration stratification o Base flow in causes problems and salt marshes
physical and evaporation balance; base flow streams may may increase
hydrologic and lower in streams may decrease o Saline water
groundwater change o Stronger storms may move farther
features tables o Stream water may cause more upstream and
o A spring may become intense flooding freshwater habitat
o Switching runoff pulse may warmer and runoff may become
between disappear along brackish
surface and with the snow o Increased o Coastal
groundwater human use of overwash or island o Tidal influence
sources for o Rivers may no groundwater breaching may may move farther
public water longer freeze; a during drought occur upstream
supplies may spring thaw would may reduce
affect the be obsolete stream baseflow o Turbidity of o Bulkheads, sea
integrity of surface waters walls and revetments
water bodies o Marshes and o New water may increase may become more
beaches may supply reservoirs widespread
o Greater erode from loss of may affect o Increased
electricity protecting ice the integrity intensity of
demand of freshwater precipitation
may affect streams may yield less
operation infiltration
decisions at
hydropower
dams
Constructing o Desired fish o Stream erosion o Light may not o Long-term
reefs to may no longer be may lead to penetrate through shellfish
present high turbidity deeper water sustainability
promote fish and greater may be an open
and shellfish o Warmer water sedimentation o Higher salinity may question
may promote kill targeted species
invasive species or o Lower pH from o Fish may
disease NPS pollution be adversely
may affect target affected during
species development
stagesTable 3-1c. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for fish, wildlife and PlanTs Checklist of potential climate change risks for fish, wildlife and plants for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the three highly related listed Clean Water Act fish, wildlife and plants goals.
Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Act goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification
Protecting and o Species o Species that o Newly invasive o Species may o Greater soil o Sea level may push o Corrosive
propagating that won’t used to migrate species may appear not tolerate a erosion may saltier water farther waters may
tolerate away may stay all new drought increase turbidity upstream (especially impact shellfish
fish, shellfish warmer winter o Habitat may regime and decrease of interest with development
and wildlife summers may become unsuitably water clarity regard to shellfish
die/migrate; o Species that warm, for a species o Native habitat habitat) o Shellfish
biota at the once migrated or its food may be affected o Greater soil predators may
southern limit through may stop if freshwater erosion may o Light may not not survive the
of their range and stay o Heat may stress flow in streams increase sediment penetrate through disappearance
Controlling immobile biota
may disappear is diminished or deposition in the full depth of of shellfish
nonnative from o Pests may eliminated estuaries, with deeper water
and invasive ecosystems survive winters o Dissolved oxygen consequences for o Fish may
that used to kill capacity of water o Changing benthic species o Greater coastal be adversely
species may drop
o Species them freshwater wetland losses may affected during
may be inputs may occur development
weakened o Invasive species o Some fish affect salinity stages by
by heat and may move into reproduction distribution changes to
Maintaining become out- places that used may require cold in estuaries water chemistry
biological competed to be too cold temperatures; other (especially of
reproductive cycles interest with o The effect
integrity and o Some plants are tied to water of ocean
o Essential regard to
reintroducing food sources may need a temperature shellfish habitat) acidification
native species may die off “setting” cold on calcifying
or disappear, temperature o Coral bleaching plankton
affecting the episodes may may lead to
food web o A longer increase cascading
growing season effects in the
o Species may lead to an o Parasites and food chain
may need extra reproductive diseases are
to consume cycle enhanced by
more water as warmer water
temperature o Food supplies
rises and bird
migrations may be
mis-timedTable 3-1d. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for recreaTion and Public waTer suPPlies Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals.
Clean Water Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Act resource summers winters water drought storminess acidification
goals
Restoring o More o Harmful algal o Freshwater flows in o More frequent o Beaches or public o Eco-tourism
and people using blooms may be streams may not support or more intense access sites may resources or
water for more likely recreational uses storms may be lost to coastal attractions
maintaining recreation decrease erosion or inundation (e.g., birding,
recreational may raise the o Jellyfish may be o Increased estuary recreational diving, fishing)
activities, in potential for more common salinity may drive away opportunities o Clearance may be
pathogen targeted recreational fish under bridges may degraded
and on the exposure o Fishing seasons o Greater NPS decrease
water and fish may o Recreational
pollution may
become misaligned shellfish
impair recreation
harvesting
o Desired may be lost
recreational fish
may no longer be
present
o Invasive plants
may clog creeks and
waterways
Protecting o Warmer o Summer o Changes in o Lower freshwater flows o Water o Sea level may push
public water temperatures water treatment processes may not keep saltwater infrastructure may salt fronts upstream
may drive supplies that may be required downstream of intakes be vulnerable to past water diversions
supplies greater water depend on flooding
demand winter snow o Increased o Groundwater tables o Water
pack may growth of algae may drop o Flood waters infrastructure may
o Evaporation disappear and microbes may may raise be vulnerable to
losses from affect drinking water o Coastal aquifers downstream inundation or erosion
reservoirs and o Cold places quality may be salinized from turbidity and
groundwater may see more insufficient freshwater affect water o Saltwater intrusion
may increase freeze/thaw input quality into groundwater
cycles that may be more likely
can affect o Coastal aquifers may
infrastructure be salinized from higher
demand on groundwater
o Maintaining passing
flows at diversions may
be difficultTable 3-1e(i). PoTenTial climaTe change risks for human healTh Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals.
Public Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Health Goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification
Protecting o Increasingly o Extended o Harmful algal Drought may lead o Increased o Tidal flow into
people from favorable seasons for blooms, bacteria, to warmer water stormwater runoff combined sewer
conditions for disease vectors, and protozoa that temperatures if and combined systems may
vector or bacteria like such as ticks flourish in warmer depths gets shallower sewer overflows lead to overflows
pathogenic Salmonella may and mosquitos, water may cause or if cold water inputs (CSOs) may increase that increase
diseases increase food may lead to sickness in people diminish. See the the spread of the spread of
poisoning more human engaged in water- Warmer Water column pathogens to pathogens
infections related activities for associated risks humans
o Expansion of o Higher water
the geographic o Disease o HABs and o Floods or higher tables may cause
range of pests vectors that waterborne o Turning to unsafe groundwater levels water intrusion
and parasites, survive through diseases may water sources for may lead to water into buildings
such as mosquitos winter without spread to new irrigation may spread intrusion into leading to mold
and ticks, may dying off may areas that used E. Coli and Salmonella buildings that can and reduced
increase disease infect more to be too cold for cause mold and indoor air quality
exposure humans these pathogens o Evaporation reduce indoor air
to survive may lead to higher quality
o A wider concentrations of
distribution of o Warmer waters pathogens in streams o Flooded areas
pests, parasites affect the growth and rivers may serve as
and pathogens and distributions breeding pools for
may increase of pathogens that o Drought may mosquitos carrying
pesticide use and accumulate in increase dust diseases
human exposure fish and shellfish, storms and airborne
to chemical increasing both transmission of fungal o Abandoned
contaminants the geographic pathogens storm-damaged
and seasonal properties may
ranges where o Increased dust attract rodent
people are at deposits into aquatic populations that
risk of shellfish systems may increase carry pathogens
poisoning harmful algal blooms
o Rodents that carry
pathogens may
enter dwellings when
searching for waterTable 3-1e(ii). PoTenTial climaTe change risks for human healTh Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals.
Public Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level Ocean
Health Goals summers winters water drought storminess rise acidification
Protecting o Higher rates of evaporation o A longer o Higher o Fine particulates o During extreme events, rain, o Saltwater o Subsistence
people from may worsen droughts and pollen evaporation from wildfires may wind or waves may produce intrusion communities
wildfires season may rates may aggravate more injuries or deaths into aquifers may face
environ worsen reduce cardiovascular and may salinize shortages of
o Higher temperatures may o Storms that lead to
mental cause occupational health
allergies drinking respiratory diseases homelessness, relocation
potable key shellfish
effects on and asthma water o Water shortages or separation may increase
freshwater resources
hazards, especially for those
episodes supplies may cause crop anxiety and Posttraumatic
sources
health and working outdoors
well-being o Greater o More failures and rising Stress Disorder
o Higher temperatures may
time spent water-related prices that affect o Storms may increase
cause more heat stroke,
outside may recreation the food choices economic strain from damage
dehydration
increase can lead to people make or loss of income
o Hot stagnant air with higher hazards increases in o Financial-related o Public health services may
particulate matter and ozone associated swimming stress or forced be disrupted by damaged
(smog) levels may exacerbate with outdoor or boating migration from health care facilities,
asthma & cardiovascular disease activity accidents drought and wild interrupted communication,
o Higher temperatures may o Warmer fires may impact offline utilities, or emergency
increase air conditioning usage temperature mental health responders being exposed to
and produce more emissions of cooling o In areas without dangers
that impair air quality water fire hydrants, o After extreme events,
o Higher CO2 levels and sources may surface water
affect power personal health efforts may be
expansion of the geographic sources may dry up
generation disrupted if prescriptions are
range for allergy-inducing making it harder to
and unfillable, devices are lost, or
species may worsen asthma and put out dangerous
endanger mobility is limited
other allergic illnesses fires
those who o Floodwaters may spread
o Greater rates of violent crime depend on o Drought may hazardous materials to areas
may occur on hotter days electricity cause water scarcity where clean up workers may
o Greater demand for electricity for health o Lower water come in contact with them
may lead to blackouts and maintenance levels in hydropower
o The use of portable electric
brownouts that affect people reservoirs may
generators after a storm
who rely on electricity for health impact electricity
may cause carbon monoxide
maintenance production and
poisoning
o Higher temperatures may endanger those who
rely on heating, o Flooding at drinking or
exacerbate cases where
ventilating and wastewater facilities may
medication is impairing the
air conditioning increase exposure to untreated
body’s ability to regulate heat
(HVAC), or electrical sewage or limit availability of
equipment drinking waterTable 3-1f. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for floodPlain managemenT Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals.
Higher magnitude flood events or more frequent occurrences of flooding, will amplify the numerous and well known social, economic and environmental impacts of
flooding that are the very reason for floodplain management. This checklist focuses on natural infrastructure and changes to the probability of flooding. Many of the
risks stemming from places becoming flooded are in other checklists in this series: they are particularly associated with the “increasing storminess” and “sea level rise”
stressors; see the public health checklist for potential human impacts.
Floodplain Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Manage - summers winters water drought storminess acidification
ment Goals
Under o Increased o Warmer o Stratification o As drought o The past will be less o A rising sea level will continuously
standing demand for winters may may affect flood years are useful for understanding increase the likelihood of coastal
summertime lead to earlier hydrodynamics added to future risk flooding
the water may snowmelt the historical
probability change how and result o Temperature record they o Increased precipitation o Higher sea level may change the
of flooding reservoirs are in higher driven changes may alter may stress stormwater floodplains of coastal streams
managed in springtime to viscosity may statistics infrastructure leading to
the winter and flows and affect sediment of the more nuisance flooding o Regular nuisance flooding from
spring lower summer transport and probability high tides will increase in low lying
flows bed roughness of flooding o Flood control facilities coastal areas
(e.g., detention basins,
o Changes in o Long dams, dikes and levees) o Higher water may decrease
temperature periods of may fail protection from breakwaters, sea
may affect drought may walls, bulkheads, revetments, dikes
aquatic increase or levees
vegetative the relative
productivity proportion o Seawater inflow to storm sewers
affecting flood of rainfall may reduce their capacity to handle
storage, water runoff and stormwater runoff
quality, and contribute to
habitat flooding o Stormwater outfalls may become
submerged, affecting how the ser
vice area drains
Protecting o Changes in o Warmer o Increasing o Increased precipitation o Bulkheads, seawalls, and o Degrada
hydrologic temperature temperatures drought may can lead to bank erosion revetments may become more tion of oyster
may affect may lead to affect and stream channel widespread with detrimental effects reefs or coral
features terrestrial more vegeta floodplain changes on tidal wetlands and intertidal reefs may
and vegetative tion through vegetation, habitat increase
beneficial productivity, the winter, which could o Flood protection damages from
which in turn which may impact the structures may become o Higher water tables may affect storm waves
functions of may impact impact flood protection more prevalent and floodplain storage
floodplains flood storage storage and benefits of impact overall floodplain
and water water quality floodplains function o Low elevation uplands will
quality as well as transition to wetlands, wetlands
biological o Natural features, will transition to open water
productivity, engineered nature-
and wildlife based features or
habitat green infrastructure
that provides beneficial
functions could be
damagedTable 3-1g. PoTenTial climaTe change risks for weTland habiTaTs Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals.
This checklist focuses on the wetland habitat type specifically, and it should be used in conjunction with the habitats checklist in this series which has other general habitat risks that
are also relevant to wetlands. Drought may lead to warmer water if depth becomes shallower or if cold water inputs diminish. See the Warmer Water column for associated risks.
Wetlands Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Sea level rise Ocean
Goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification
Maintaining o Higher temperatures may o Winter ice may o Warmer o Water levels in o Greater amounts of o Tidal influence
hydrology lead to greater evaporation not form, or may water may streams and lakes rainfall may cause more may move farther
and lower groundwater melt quicker lead to greater may drop and intense flooding and runoff upstream
tables likelihood of groundwater may
o Less snow, o Increased intensity of o Tidal restrictions
water column be reduced
o Greater upstream water more rain may precipitation may yield more (e.g., undersized
stratification
usage may impact change the runoff/ o Wetlands runoff and less infiltration culverts, road
downstream freshwater infiltration may become o Turbidity of surface
crossings) may
supply or estuarine salinity balance; base flow disconnected waters may increase
exacerbate flooding
in streams may from bays, lakes
change, impacting or streams o Wind-driven currents
freshwater may alter customary flow
availability patterns
Protecting o Higher evaporation may o Typical insect o Organisms o Water scarcity o Floodwaters may spread o Sea level may o Shellfish
and worsen drought and wildfire die-offs in winter that have may adversely hazardous materials to soils push saltwater mortality may
may decrease, narrow aquatic affect wetland- and throughout watersheds farther upstream, increase due
restoring o Species may be weakened
impacting both temperature dependent plants impacting sensitive to increased
and become out-competed o Flooding at drinking or
wetland by native or invasive species
flora and fauna ranges may and animals wastewater facilities may
species acidity of
species in terrestrial and be further increase risk of spills or
aquatic
o Biota at the limit of their aquatic habitats constrained or habitat
overflows into sensitive
ranges or with temperature- stressed
o Increase in habitat
dependent life stages may
mosquito larvae
disappear from ecosystems
may affect food
o Essential food sources supply for birds and
may die off or disappear other predators
Protecting o Marshes and o Higher rate o Wetland plants o Shoreline erosion may o Salt water may o Higher
and beaches may of evaporation may shift their lead to loss of beaches, move farther up concentration
erode due to loss may raise habitat ranges— wetlands, and salt marshes stream and habitats of hydrogen
restoring of protecting ice salinity in into, away may become more ions in water
o Damage to mangrove
wetland coastal waters from, or to stands may affect feeding,
brackish column could
habitat larger/smaller have
o Temperature mating, nesting, and resting o Changing
proportions of a consequences
changes affect areas for birds and reptiles salinity may have a
place for sensitive
rates of nutrient large effect on meth
o Damage or loss of organisms
and chemical ane release from soils
seagrass beds may affect
reactions critical habitat and food o Mudflat changes
sources may make it more
difficult for birds to
access foodTable 3-2. organizaTional goals Checklist of potential climate change risks for recreation and public water supplies for user consideration. These risks are reasonable possibilities derived from crossing the seven climate change stressors with the two listed Clean Water Act recreation and public water supplies goals.
Organizational Warmer Warmer Warmer Increasing Increasing Ocean
Sea level rise
Goals summers winters water drought storminess acidification
Goal:
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