Copernicus Marine Services The Arctic Marine Forecasting Center - L. Bertino, J. Xie, A. Samuelsen, T. Wakamatsu, T. Williams, P. Rampal, R. Raj ...
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Copernicus Marine Services
The Arctic Marine Forecasting Center
L. Bertino, J. Xie, A. Samuelsen, T. Wakamatsu, T. Williams, P. Rampal, R. Raj, NERSC
M. Müller, A. Ali, A. Melsom, P. Bohlinger, MET Norway
V. S. Lien, IMR
The EU Copernicus Programme
The EU Copernicus Programme
You are here
144 M€
now
DIAS
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
EU framework: 2014-2020 EU framework: 2021-2027
Copernicus 1 Copernicus 2
Operational Ongoing discussion
31/10/2019 Na me of the event, Place
The Copernicus Marine
Environment Monitoring Services (CMEMS)
You are
• CMEMS uniqueness: here now
• Strong focus on internal consistency
• Open & Free data distribution
• Added value to Copernicus
satellites (data assimilation)
• Distributed European Service
• Cloud data with a single data portal
• Delegated to Mercator Ocean Intl.
• 5 new international partners
• CMEMS Opportunity
• A major initiative supporting
ambitious modeling systems
development and validation
• Intended for sustainable operations
by the EU
• NERSC, MET, IMR and NPI have
joined to participate in Mercator
Ocean Intl.
The ARC MFC (TOPAZ system + WAM) Now Soon
The TOPAZ system
• Exploited operationally at MET
Norway (Since 2008)
• Daily updated 10-days forecast
• Ecosystem coupled online in
Jan. 2012
• Monitored 24/7
• Waves forecast (since 2017)
• From MET Norway’s WAM model
• 26 years reanalysis at NERSC
• Same system as operations
• Updated twice a year until Y-1
• 3-years ecosystem reanalysis
• Assimilation of ocean colour data
and in situ profiles
• Update ongoing 2005-2015
• Copernicus marine service
• Availability > 93%
• Service desk
Ice fraction forecast for 10 th Oct 2017
And associated primary production
And significant wave heights
Validation: IMR cruises Temperature (vertically averaged) OK but too cold to the South Salinity generally too fresh Mixed Layer Depth OK In Norwegian Sea but shoals too early in Barents Sea 31/10/2019 Na me of the event, Place
Ice edge forecast on 21st Mar. 2019
Sea-Ice Edge
FSS: Fraction Skill Score
Generally, the modelled sea-ice edge follows the
observations, but with some discrepancies
especially within the northern Barents Sea.
However, the model generally performs better tha
the persistence.
Performance depends on times and locations
Model useful wrt to persistence of ice charts after 5
Persistence Obs Best estimate days forecast and at all scales.
See Melsom et al. OSD (2019)
Forecast
31/10/2019 17
Arctic-wide sea level change
Cliquez et modifiez
le titre
Low amplitude of seasonal signal
Same trend: 2mm/yr
No improvements, no degradation
Same performance wrt tide gauges
Main upcoming updates: pan-Arctic systems December release • Wave forecast: WAM 3km February ‘20 release • New sea ice rheology: neXtSIM ~7km mesh • TOPAZ6-tides: HYCOM at 3 km (but no DA) July ‘20 release • TOPAZ5: HYCOM-CICE at 6 km (with data assimilation) • ECOSMO: with the Carbon cycle December ‘20 release: • WAM 3km hindcast … 31/10/2019 Na me of the event, Place
Forecasts from neXtSIM
neXtSIM stand-alone at
~7km mesh size
Maxwell-EB rheology
(Dansereau et al. 2016)
Lagrangian triangular mesh
ECMWF (winds) and
TOPAZ forcing (ocean)
Daily assimilation of
OSI-SAF concentrations
SMOS ice thickness
Nudging: Implementation of
EnKF made tricky by
remeshing …
Scheduled for Feb 2020
Larger Arctic domain
Hourly frequency
31/10/2019 Na me of the event, PlaceHYCOM @ 3 km with tides http://thredds.met.no/thredds/godiva2/godiva2.html?server=http://thredds.met.no/thredds/wms/cmems/topaz6/datas et-topaz6-arc-15min-3km-be.ncml# Sea Surface heights Surface currents Output freq 15 mins
International coordination: YOPP/MOSAiC
85.0625N
Latitude (N)
133E 136E
84.8
84.875N 84.875N
84.6
133E 136E
Longitude (E)
135
84.6875N 84.6875N
133E
133
136E
+0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +7
2019101106 Lead time (days)
89N
89N
89N
89
89N
60E 89N
Latitude (N)
89N 89N
87
165W
86N 105E
85
150E
SIDFEx 86N
0 100
86N
Longitude (E)
105E
~11 international sea ice forecast 150E
−150
models contribute +10 +21
+0 +14 +28 +42 +60 +90 +120
2019101106 Lead time (days)
Short-term forecasts
Order SAR images from DLR for day-to- SIDFEx consensus forecast for the MOSAiC drift
Initial time (YYYYMMDDHH): 2019101106
day operations Consensus forecast version: 20191009v0
Generated at: 2019−284.294
Forecasts included:
Seasonal forecasts ukmo001v1_cplNWPv1 ukmo001v1_FOAMv1 ukmo001v1_cplNWP−HRv1 eccc001_giops esr l001_SeaIceVelocity metno001_RK2 ecmwf001_SEAS5
Age of forecasts included (relative to initial time):
1.25 1.25 2.25 1.25 1.25 2.25 10.25
Remaining lead time range of forecasts included:
Consensus ensemble forecast 8.75 5.75 7.75 8.75 8.75 6.75 113.75
WARNING: This is an experimental forecast product with no warranty
More information: https://sidfex.polarprediction.net
31/10/2019 Na me of the event, Place Contact: helge.goessling@awi.deOutlook
• 2018-2021 coming to an end
• Preparations for Copernicus2 (2021-2027)
• Good time to suggest new information, products upgrades
• New inputs:
• New initiatives on in situ observations
• New initiatives on river discharge
• New Sentinel-6
• Inclusion of Copernicus high-priority polar mission
• (CIMR / CRISTAL?)
• Inclusion of ESA Earth Explorer missions
31/10/2019 Na me of the event, Place31/10/2019 Na me of the event, Place
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