Emerging economic developments - real-time economic domestic indicators 21 May 2021
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Emerging economic developments - real-time economic domestic indicators 21 May 2021 Prepared by the Economics Division, Department of Finance www.gov.ie/finance
Executive Summary
To assess the economic impact of the pandemic in real-time, the Department has
compiled a set of alternative, ‘ultra-high’ frequency data for different sectors of the
economy, including card payments, hiring rates, mobility and road traffic data.
As we enter the middle of May, Ireland’s cases and fatalities are amongst the lowest
in Europe, although the economic restrictions in place in Ireland remain
comparatively strict.
The economic impact of these restrictions are that 360,000 people are currently in
receipt of the COVID-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP).
Payments data shows spending has slowly recovered since the turn of the year to
be close to pre-pandemic levels.
Indicators of mobility (traffic levels, presence at transport stations) - a proxy for
economic activity - have also continued to tick up slightly in recent weeks following
mobility restrictions being lifted.
There are promising signs in labour market data from Indeed, with job postings
continuing to recover, albeit slowly.
In line with the continuation of restrictions on the hospitality sector, booking figures
in restaurants are 100 per cent down on last year.
Finally, the release of daily vaccination figures show that Ireland in line with the EU
average level of vaccination, measured by the percentage of the population who
have received their first dose. The speed at which this measure increases will have
significant influence on the ability of the economy to fully recover from this crisis.
Data presented throughout this chart-pack valid as per [date].
Department of Finance Page | iiFigure 1.1 – COVID-19 cumulative 14-day incidence per
100,000 population.
2000 Latest developments: Sharp rise in cases in some European
countries, with numbers in Ireland remaining comparatively low.
1800
Many European countries have seen a fall in infections
1600 recently as vaccination levels increase. This follows a
resurgence in the virus in the early months of 2021
1400 associated with the spread of the B.117 variant.
Ireland has seen case numbers fall by more than 90 per cent
1200 since Level 5 restrictions were introduced. This rate of
decline has moderated in recent weeks.
1000
800
600 SE
NL
400
FR, EE
DE, DK, IT
200
AT
IE
0 GB
Source: John Hopkins University/Our World in Data.
01/02/2021
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
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01/09/2020
01/10/2020
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01/05/2021
Data: 13-05-2021.
This chart has been truncated to account for delays in reporting
cases in Ireland.
Figure 1.2 – COVID-19 fatalities, 14 day cumulative, per
million population
200 Latest developments: Fatalities continue to fall across the board
as vaccinations begin to pay dividends.
180
After a relatively stable summer period, COVID-19 fatalities
160 rose sharply in many European countries during winter.
140 Ireland experienced a sharp increase in COVID-19 fatalities in
January, during the third wave of infection.
120 Rates of fatalities in Ireland have fallen by almost 95 per cent
since the January peak.
100
Most countries have seen recent falls in the rate of fatalities as
80 vulnerable groups are vaccinated.
60 IT Source: John Hopkins University/Our World in Data.
FR, EE Data: 13-05-2021
40 DE
AT, SE This chart has been truncated to account for delays in
NL reporting cases in Ireland.
20
IE
DK, GB
0
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
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Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 1Figure 1.3 – Percentage of adult (18+) population who
have received at least one vaccine dose
Latest developments: Vaccine rollout accelerates
Malta
Hungary
Iceland
The rollout of Covid-19 vaccinations in European
Germany
Finland countries has accelerated in recent weeks, with most
Cyprus countries having vaccinated more than 30 per cent of
Belgium their adult population.
Austria
Netherlands Countries have differed in their sequencing and
Sweden allocation strategies for available vaccines leading to
Luxembourg some variation in the rollout speed.
Spain
France
In Ireland, around two-fifths of the eligible population
Ireland have now been vaccinated.
Poland
Portugal
Italy
Estonia
Lithuania
Norway
Denmark
Czechia
Liechtenstein
Slovakia
Slovenia
Greece Source: ECDC
Croatia
Romania
Data: As available 19-05-2021
Latvia Reporting delays may affect figures for Ireland.
Bulgaria
0% 20% 40% 60%
Figure 1.4 – Lockdown stringency index
100 Latest developments: Ireland’s lockdown among strictest
90 Ireland’s initial lockdown was among the latest to begin, in
keeping with infections arriving later, but the level of
80 stringency was amongst the highest.
IE
DE, IT Sweden meanwhile has had the most lenient measures
70 throughout most of the pandemic period.
ES
SE, FR This stringency index declined in Ireland during December
60
GB, US
as restrictions on retail, hospitality and household visits
50 were eased.
Ireland’s stringency index rose following the reintroduction
40
of Level 5 restrictions and remains comparatively strict. It
has fallen slightly in recent weeks with the opening of
30 personal services and other retail outlets.
20
10
0 Source: Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker,
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
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01/09/2020
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01/11/2020
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01/04/2021
01/05/2021
Blavatnik School of Government.
Data: 15-05-2021
Source: Department of Finance.
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 2Figure 1.5 – Underlying Economic Activity
2 Latest developments: Department’s underlying economic
activity indicator recovering well of late
1
The chart to the left shows the Department’s underlying
economic indicator based on a dataset of 76 monthly
0 economic indicators of domestic economic activity. 1
-1
It is expressed as deviations from the average growth rate
over the period 1999-2020, with a value of zero equal to
the average.
-2
This indicator shows that domestic economic activity hit an
all-time low in April of last year before recovering over the
-3
Summer.
-4 It declined with the reintroduction of restrictions in late
December and rebounded in recent months, reaching a
level slightly below the long-run average growth rate in
-5
March.
-6 For more detail on the method used see Daly and Rehill
(2020).
2007M09
2006M01
2006M11
2008M07
2009M05
2010M03
2011M01
2011M11
2012M09
2013M07
2014M05
2015M03
2016M01
2016M11
2017M09
2018M07
2019M05
2020M03
2021M01
Source: Department of Finance
Data used up to the end of March.
Figure 1.6 – Ireland Purchasing Managers Index by sector
70.0 Latest developments: Manufacturing and Services PMIs show
rapid rebounds
60.0
The Manufacturing PMI for April shows record or
near record readings across numerous components
of the survey, as firms participate in a global rebound
50.0
in industrial activity. The PMI jumped to a record high
of 60.8 in April from 57.1 in March and 52.0 in
40.0 February, with this partly related to input price
pressures.
30.0 The Services PMI for April points to accelerating
growth in the sector, with the business activity index
rising to 57.7 from 54.6 in March. This is well up from
20.0 its depressed levels of 41.2 in February and 36.2 in
January. It signals, though, a further improvement in
business conditions rather than activity returning to
10.0 more normal levels.
The Construction PMI in Ireland jumped to 49.3 in
0.0
April 2021 from 30.9 a month earlier, pointing to the
Jul-18
Jul-17
Jul-19
Jul-20
Apr-20
Apr-18
Apr-19
Apr-21
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Oct-17
Oct-18
Oct-19
Oct-20
fourth straight month of contraction in the sector, on
the back of an easing in COVID-19 restrictions
Construction Manufacturing Services Source: IHS Markit.
Data: 19-05-2021
1
See Daly and Rehill (2020) “Where are we now? Examining Irish Economic Developments in Real-Time” for further detail on
Department’s nowcasting models.
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 3Figure 1.7 – Total expenditure in Ireland, per user
(indexed to 1st February, 7 day moving average)
Latest developments: spending back to pre-pandemic
160 Level 5 1 levels
Schools Close Level 3 nationwide
nationwide
140
0.9 There are approximately 1.2 million Revolut
'Stay at home' users in Ireland, a digital banking app,
order 0.8 accounting for over 25 per cent of the adult
120 population. However, Revolut users tend to be
0.7 from younger cohorts.
The Revolut expenditure per user measure is
100 consistent with the CSO Retail Sales Index and
0.6
Central Bank Credit and Debit Statistics.
80 0.5 From the early April 2020 low, expenditure per
Return to user had seen steady recovery and for much of
Level 3
0.4
the summer was above the pre-pandemic level.
60 nationwide
There has been an increase in spending in recent
Full Level 5
restrictions weeks following the late December decline
0.3
when lockdown measures were introduced.
40
Daily spending now stands around its pre-
0.2
pandemic baseline.
20 The increase in spending on debit cards does not
Re-opening 0.1 account for any recent shift away from cash.
Phases
0 0
Source: Revolut.
Note: See Central Bank, Credit and Debit Card Statistics;
CSO, Retail Sales Index.
Figure 1.8 – Total transactions per user expenditure
(normalised to avg. spend in February, 7 day moving
average)
1.8 Latest developments: spending increasing in most
countries in recent weeks
1.6
Seasonal shopping see a common spike in spending
1.4 across countries in late December.
1.2 Following the Christmas period and re-introduction
IT
of restrictions, spending in Ireland and many other
1 DE, IE countries rapidly fell below the pre-pandemic
FR baseline.
AT
0.8
ES Spending in most countries has started to increase in
DK recent weeks.
0.6 GB
SE
0.4
Source: Revolut.
0.2
0
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 4Figure 1.9– Ireland average daily expenditure per user
by sector, (February=1)
3 Latest developments: gradual increases in many
categories
2.5 Spending in most Revolut categories has remained
relatively stable following the dramatic fall in
spending when lockdown measures were
2 reintroduced, with gradual increases in recent
weeks.
1.5
Travel and restaurant spending are currently the
furthest below the baseline due to restrictions on
hospitality and overseas travel.
1 There has been a slow increase in transport
spending, in line with the gradual increase seen in
mobility.
0.5
0
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GROCERIES HEALTH RESTAURANTS Source: Revolut.
SHOPPING TRANSPORT TRAVEL
Figure 1.10 – Total expenditure by age cohort, per
user (indexed to avg. February spend, 7 day moving
2 Latest developments: gradual rise in many groups
1.8 Expenditure among the youngest and oldest cohorts
suffered the biggest falls in spending during the
1.6 ‘first-wave’ of restrictions.
1.4
This possibly reflected labour market conditions –
where a greater proportion of young workers were
1.2
in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment
than other cohorts (Roantree, 2020) and the
1
‘cocooning’ requirements for older groups.
0.8
There has been differential impacts in the speed at
0.6 which cohorts respond to restriction levels being
changed, while they also may differ in their shifts
0.4 away from cash to card.
0.2 The oldest cohorts showed the sharpest declines in
spending following the most recent introduction of
0 restriction, while they had seen a more modest
recoveries in spending beforehand.
Source: Revolut
Note: See Roantree, B (2020) ‘Job Loss Distribution’.
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2020 (ESRI)
55-64 65-74 75+
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 5Figure 1.11 – Share of Irish spending, physical vs.
online
Latest developments: yo-yoing in online spending levels
80
70 The pandemic led to an increase in a proportion of
expenditure carried out online, accounting for 30
per cent of total expenditure in early February, to
60
close to 50 per cent in late April in 2020.
50 However this trend was reversed as restrictions
were lifted.
40 When restrictions were re-introduced in October, a
sharp increase in the proportion of spending taking
place online was observed.
30
Online spending spiked in late November with the
20 Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events.
While physical spending spiked during the
10 Christmas season, it has reversed following the
closure of non-essential retail.
0 Spending online remained close to 50 per cent of
01/03/2021
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01/05/2021
Revolut during the Level 5 restrictions, though it is
trending downwards in recent weeks as the
economy begins to reopen.
Physical Spending Online Spending Source: Revolut
Figure 1.12 – Restaurant bookings % change vs. same
day in 2019 (7 day moving average)
80% Latest developments: bookings remain 100% below last year
60% The unwinding of restrictions on restaurants in early December
saw them return to being above the booking figures for this
40% time last year.
20% The return of restrictions on the hospitality sector since
Christmas Eve has led to these bookings being 100% below last
0% year again, while there has been a steady increase globally.
The return of outdoor dining on June 7th, as well as the increase
-20% in the number of firms using OpenTable for bookings should see
this indicator spike next month.
-40%
-60%
-80%
Note: These figures do not account for the fact that due to the pandemic many
-100% restaurants have since had to introduce booking systems, while some are also
operating on reduced capacities. It may also reflect more people and restaurants using
24/02/2020
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OpenTable.
Source: OpenTable. Data: 19-05-2021
Global Ireland
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 6Figure 1.13 – New job postings (vs. 1st February 2020)
100 Latest developments: New job postings on Indeed
exceed pre-pandemic baseline
80
New job postings in Ireland and a number of other
60 countries have exceeded their pre-pandemic
baseline in recent months.
40
In Ireland, they are currently 16 percent higher than
20
they were on the 1st February 2020.
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
01/12/2020
01/02/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
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01/09/2020
01/10/2020
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01/01/2021
01/02/2021
01/03/2021
01/04/2021
01/05/2021
Source: Indeed; Data: 15-05-2021
AU CA DE FR UK US IE
Figure 1.14 – Total job postings (vs. 1st February 2020)
Latest developments: Total job postings on Indeed
60 approaching pre-pandemic baseline
Total job postings in Ireland are currently just below
40 their pre-pandemic baseline (5 per cent), while they
are above it in a number of other countries.
20
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
01/02/2020
01/03/2020
01/04/2020
01/05/2020
01/06/2020
01/07/2020
01/08/2020
01/09/2020
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01/12/2020
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AU CA DE FR UK US IE
Source: Indeed; Data: 15-05-2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 7Figure 1.15 – Income support programmes, persons
Latest developments: 360,000 people are currently in
receipt of the PUP.
Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (currently in receipt)
Around 360,000 people are in receipt of the
1,400,000 Live register
COVID-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment
Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) on 18-May, a decrease of c.13,000
1,200,000 compared to the previous week, and around 40
per cent lower than the peak of over 600,000
peak on 5th May 2020.
1,000,000
These payments are in addition to the c.178,000
800,000 people on the Live Register at end April, and
almost 300,000 being supported by the
600,000 Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS) in
April.
400,000
In total, around 835,000 are in in receipt of some
form of income support (roughly 1/3 of the pre-
200,000
pandemic labour force), down by a third from a
peak of 1.2 million on the 5th of May 2020
0 (approximately 1/2 of the pre-pandemic labour
11-Jan
25-Jan
05-May
18-May
07-Sep
21-Sep
08-Feb
22-Feb
08-Mar
22-Mar
03-May
17-May
14-Dec
28-Dec
06-Apr
20-Apr
02-Jun
15-Jun
29-Jun
13-Jul
27-Jul
05-Oct
19-Oct
05-Apr
19-Apr
10-Aug
24-Aug
02-Nov
16-Nov
30-Nov
force).
Source: DEASP, Revenue, CSO.
Data: 19-05-2021
Figure 1.16 – Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP),
by sector, persons
Latest developments:
All sectors have retreated from their
Accommodation & Food ‘Lockdown 3.0’ peak in recent weeks as the
Wholesale & Retail Trade &…
phased re-opening of a number of sectors
Administrative
Other
commenced.
Construction
Manufacturing This week, the sectors with the highest
Professional number of people receiving PUP are
Arts, Entertainment &… Accommodation and Food Service activities
Health & Social Work
(c.96,000), Wholesale and Retail Trade
Education
Transport
(c.60,000) and Administrative & Support
Not stated Activities (c.32,000).
ICT
Financial
Public Administration All sectors have fewer recipients on 18-May
Real Estate compared to the preceding week; with the
Agriculture largest reductions occurring in Construction
Utilities (c.-3,100), Wholesale and Retail (c.-2,600).
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 Accommodation and Food (c.-1,700).
sectoral peak current level (18/05/2021)
Source: DEASP.
Data: 19-05-2021
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 8Figure 1.17 – Community mobility (7 day moving average)
Latest developments: mobility measures trending
upwards
40
20
Daily mobility data give a real time steer on
changes in economic activity.
0
All measures of mobility have neem gradually
trending upwards in recent weeks, with the
-20
exception of the ‘residential’ category.
-40
Mobility around grocery/pharmacy stores is now
slightly above the pre-pandemic baseline.
-60
This data is created with aggregated, anonymized
-80
sets of data from Google Maps.
-100
15/02/2020
15/03/2020
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15/04/2021 Source: Google mobility data.
Data: 15-05-2021
retail_recreation grocery_pharmacy
public_transport workplaces
residential
Figure 1.18 – Mode of transport (1st January=100, 7 day moving
average)
Latest developments: strong pick up in driving in
recent weeks
180
160 Travel across three modes of transport declined
sharply in Spring 2020, recovering during the
140 Summer as restrictions were lifted.
Following the reintroduction of Level 5
120
restrictions mobility fell sharply, but it has
increased slightly in recent weeks, with driving
100
close its pre-pandemic baseline.
80 This data is created with aggregated, anonymized
sets of data which reflect requests for directions
60 on Apple Maps.
40
20
0
19/04/2021
19/01/2020
19/02/2020
19/03/2020
19/04/2020
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19/03/2021
Source: Apple
Data: 20-05-2021
driving public transport walking
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 9Figure 1.19 – Aggregate traffic volumes on national
roads (7 day moving average)
Latest developments: Traffic returning to Summer 2020 levels
7,000,000
The recovery in traffic levels remained steady at roughly 10
per cent below the pre pandemic level over last Summer
6,000,000 following the reopening of the economy and society in late
June.
5,000,000 Another level shift was seen from mid-October as a 5km
radius restriction on travel was introduced, though the
unwinding of restrictions in early December saw a rapid
4,000,000 return to these early October levels.
This rose to Summer levels before restrictions were
3,000,000 reintroduced, leading to Spring 2020 levels of traffic when
initial restrictions were brought in.
2,000,000 It has since gradually ticked up so far through Spring 2021
even before travel rules were relaxed, and it now around
10 percent below pre-pandemic levels.
1,000,000
The daily aggregate is a sum of traffic volumes across 246
traffic counter sites on national roads (i.e. motorway,
0 national primary, national secondary).
Source: Transport Infrastructure Ireland.
Data: 18-05-2021
Figure 1.20 – Restaurant bookings % change vs. same day in 2019 (7 day moving average)
Latest developments: bookings remain 100% below last year
80% Source: Google mobility data.
60%
The unwinding of restrictions on restaurants in early
December saw them return to being above the booking
40%
figures for this time last year.
The return of restrictions on the hospitality sector since
20% Christmas Eve has led to these bookings being 100% below
last year again, while there has been a steady increase
0% globally.
-20% The return of outdoor dining on June 7th, as well as the
increase in the number of firms using OpenTable for
-40% bookings should see this indicator spike next month.
-60%
-80%
Note: These figures do not account for the fact that due to the pandemic many
-100% restaurants have since had to introduce booking systems, while some are also
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operating on reduced capacities. It may also reflect more people and
restaurants using OpenTable.
Source: OpenTable. Data: 19-05-2021
Global Ireland
Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 10Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 11
Tithe an Rialtas. Sráid Mhuirfean Uacht, Baile Átha Cliath 2, D02 R583, Éire Government Buildings, Upper Merrion Street, Dublin 2, D02 R583, Ireland T:+353 1 676 7571 @IRLDeptFinance www.gov.ie/finance Department of Finance | emerging economic developments Page | 12
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