EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)

EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
eThekwini One Plan
         District Development Model

Pathway to an Envisaged Future
          (Draft Document)

              19 March 2021

                                      All of Government and All of
                                       Society Working together

EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
3.4    ECONOMIC POSITIONING ................................................................ 17
                                                                                                            3.5    SPATIAL RESTRUCTURING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ............. 17
                                                                                                            3.6    INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING........................................................ 17
                                                                                                            3.7    INTEGRATED SERVICE PROVISIONING ................................................. 18
Table of Contents                                                                                           3.8    GOVERNANCE .............................................................................. 18

PREFACE .............................................................................................. 1    4.    STRATEGIES ................................................................................ 18

1.    INTRODUCTION............................................................................. 3           4.1    ONE PLAN STRATEGIC GOALS ........................................................... 18
                                                                                                            4.2    SMART PORT CITY REGION SPATIAL NETWORK ..................................... 20
                                                                                                            4.3    PEOPLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ................................................... 21
1.1     PURPOSE ....................................................................................... 3
                                                                                                            4.3    ECONOMIC POSITIONING STRATEGIES ................................................ 22
1.2     DDM INTENT ................................................................................. 3      4.4    SPATIAL RESTRUCTURING AND ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGIES .................. 23
1.3     ONE PLAN ..................................................................................... 4    4.5    INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING STRATEGIES........................................ 24
1.4     ONE PLAN FORMULATION PROCESS ..................................................... 5
                                                                                                            4.6    INTEGRATED SERVICE PROVISIONING STRATEGIES ................................. 25
1.5     ONE PLAN OUTLINE ......................................................................... 7        4.7    GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES .................................... 26

2.    DIAGNOSTIC SUMMARY ................................................................ 7                 5.    IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS ............................................ 27

2.1     SWOT ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 7        5.1    ONE PLAN, ONE BUDGET, ONE TEAM ................................................ 27
2.2     STRUCTURAL AND SYSTEMIC CHALLENGES ............................................. 8                  5.2    PRIORITY PROGRAMMES ................................................................. 28
2.3     TREND ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 9      5.3    SKILLS DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS ....................... 29
2.4     DIAGNOSTIC SUMMARY - SIX TRANSFORMATIONS ................................. 10                       5.4    SAFETY IMPROVEMENT IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS ..................... 32
2.5     PROJECTIONS ............................................................................... 11
2.6     THE BIG DIAGNOSTIC ISSUES INFORMING THE ONE PLAN ........................ 13
                                                                                                            6.    ONE PLAN IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING & EVALUATION ...... 34
3.    ETHEKWINI VISION 2050 ............................................................. 14
                                                                                                            6.1    IMPLEMENTATION READINESS .......................................................... 34
                                                                                                            6.2    MONITORING & EVALUATION .......................................................... 34
3.1     VISION SETTING ............................................................................ 14
3.2     VISION STATEMENT AND DESIRED FUTURE ELEMENTS ............................ 16
3.3     PEOPLE DEVELOPMENT ................................................................... 16

EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
only metropolitan pilot. The other two being Waterberg District in Limpopo
                      eThekwini One Plan                                                           Province and OR Tambo District in Eastern Cape Province. The aim of the pilots are
                                                                                                   to test the DDM model in practice with an intensive focus to produce
                                                                                                   intergovernmental collaboration results, unblocking priority implementation
                                                                                                   projects, and develop prototype single joined-up plans or “One Plans” that express
                                                                                                   the common understanding of the pilot spaces and a shared vision for
Preface                                                                                            development based on joint planning processes.

Government working together with stakeholders and communities aims to make                         The 3 pilots were identified on a balanced approach to learn from both urban and
eThekwini a leading Smart Port City Region that is just, safe, socially cohesive and               rural contexts as well as District and Metropolitan areas. They were also identified
culturally expressive.                                                                             on the basis of areas having significant poverty and inequality challenges yet vast
                                                                                                   opportunity and potential cutting across mining, agricultural and ocean economy
This will result in a transformed regional economy and in the upliftment and well-                 sectors balancing significant environmental and tourism factors. The pilots
being of people living in eThekwini, its neighbouring districts and the Province of                collectively contribute over 10% to the GDP of the country and house over 6
KwaZulu-Natal at large.                                                                            million people.

eThekwini, located on the east coast of South Africa having the Durban Port as a                   eThekwini was chosen as a pilot in part to build on existing good practices in
gateway to global trade is one of the 52 demarcated geo-economic spaces in the                     relation to improving government coordination undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal such
country. Government, through the District Development Model (DDM), is viewing                      as Operation Sukuma Sakhe (OSS) that operationalises detailed service delivery
each of these spaces strategically and in relation to their unique conditions,                     coordination within municipalities. eThekwini can also offer much learning for
endowments and potentials. This more focussed approach and development of                          districts containing large cities and for the other 7 metropolitan spaces in the
each of these spaces will collectively and drastically improve overall inclusive                   country specifically in relation to:
economic growth and development of the country.                                                         • Defining a strategic and competitive economic edge;
                                                                                                        • Addressing urbanisation and managing urban growth;
These geo-economic spaces or IGR Impact sites, directly governed by local                               • Building environmental resilience;
government, in this case eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, are the ideal                             • Undertaking spatial transformation and integrating urban and rural
convergence platforms for the whole of government where all three spheres of                                 development within metropolitan spaces;
government can undertake their mandated functions in a more spatially targeted                          • Undertaking strategic and sustainable Infrastructure investment;
and collaborative way to improve service delivery and development impact.
                                                                                                        • Implementing Area Based service delivery models; and
Government is using the DDM as a practical method to improve cooperative
                                                                                                        • Addressing governance and stakeholder processes.
governance, in particular integrated planning, budgeting and implementation on
the basis of stakeholder and community involvement, and thereby build a capable
                                                                                                   The eThekwini pilot was launched by President Cyril Ramaphosa in KwaMashu on
and ethical Developmental State with strong local government that can respond
                                                                                                   18 October 2019. The outcome of the first step in the DDM, that is the profiling
to current and future needs and effectively implement national priorities.
                                                                                                   exercise, was articulated in Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s address at the
                                                                                                   launch. It showed how the triple structural and systemic challenges of poverty,
eThekwini is one of three DDM pilots that were announced in August 2019 when
                                                                                                   unemployment and inequality facing the country that the National Development
the DDM was approved by Cabinet for implementation across the country. It is the

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                     1
EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
Plan (NDP) seeks to overcome manifests in eThekwini in particular ways. These                      This One Plan, aimed at delivering on the NDP objectives in the context of the
challenges run deep in eThekwini compared to the other metros and are a major                      eThekwini socio-economic and spatial conditions, is being co-produced by all three
constraint to economic growth and well-being despite the many endowments and                       spheres of government together with stakeholders and communities as a strategic
potential of the area.                                                                             response and intervention to change the fortunes of the people of eThekwini. It is
                                                                                                   a bold intervention aimed at addressing root causes and drivers of structural and
                                                                                                   systemic poverty, unemployment and inequality, through radical upliftment and
  “We must also understand and factor in the population dynamics and potentials of the
                                                                                                   improvement in the quality of life of people in tandem with transformation of
  city, which show us that 63% of the 3.9million citizens are under the age of 35, with
                                                                                                   the economy driven by astute and visionary governance that proactively
  65% of those being of a working age, if we accept that those between 15 and 64 should
  be working. Although at a glance the unemployment figure of 20% maybe encouraging,               generates and sustains a highly conducive and attractive environment for
  it is misleading as with the decline of opportunities, there has been a drastic increase in      investment, tourism and local participation.
  the number of discouraged job seekers, taking unemployment to about 31%. Since 64%
  of those who are discouraged have not completed primary and secondary school                     The joint One Plan provides government, investors and the broad public with a
  education, it is revealing that 8.6% of the population has no education and only 5.8%            strategic pathway in moving from the current situation to a desired future. The
  have higher education, which in itself explains the unemployment situation.                      strategic pathway is represented by a set of impact-oriented strategies and
                                                                                                   related implementation commitments by all three spheres of government as
  We must therefore pay attention to the education, skilling, and education dimensions             well as stakeholders. The performance of each sphere of government and
  of the city, which shows that 17% of the citizens have no income with about 2.1 million          stakeholders in relation to them embedding the implementation commitments in
  of them living below the upper bound poverty line of R1 183 per person per month. It is          their own strategic and annual performance plans and implementation thereof
  also important to note that just over a million of these live below the food poverty line,
                                                                                                   will determine the success of the One Plan.
  which means that they live in households that cannot sustainably feed themselves.
  Additionally, close to 1 million citizens are on some type of social grant and the majority
  rely on remittances for survival.                                                                This One Plan as a key instrument of the DDM is championed at the highest level
                                                                                                   by the President and Cabinet. It is facilitated by the Minister for Cooperative
  Those who are fortunate to find work or have some source of income also remain                   Governance and Traditional Affairs who is supported by a team of political
  vulnerable with over 60% of the city’s population earning less than R38 400 per month,           champions constituting the eThekwini DDM Political Hub committee, being the
  which is about R100 per day. When considering that daily transport costs for a majority          Deputy Ministers Hon. John Jeffery and Hon. Nocawe Mafu, the Hon. MEC
  of the citizen’s ranges between R17 and R35 per day, because of them living very far             Kwazikwenkosi Mshengu, and His Worship, Mayor Mxolisi Kaunda.
  from work. This amount is simply far too little for them to live a basic quality life, let
  alone lift themselves out of poverty.                                                            The Political Hub committee is supported by an intergovernmental Technical Hub
                                                                                                   committee and an operational Hub and takes responsibility for the One Plan
  We must also pay due consideration to the fact that according to Stats SA over 42% of            development process and to recommend the One Plan for approval to
  the households in the city are headed by women and that there are some 8 802                     Government as well as to oversee its implementation, monitoring and review. The
  households headed by children.”                                                                  Political Hub ensures vertical and horizontal integration and involvement of all of
                                                                                                   government and society in the One Plan.
  Abstract from speech based on the eThekwini Profile delivered by Minister Nkosazana
  Dlamini Zuma on the occasion of the Presidential Launch of the eThekwini DDM Pilot,
                                                                                                   The eThekwini One Plan and implementation thereof will deliver a better desired
  18 October 2019, KwaMashu, Durban
                                                                                                   future through accountable cooperative governance and coherent State action.

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                    2
EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
1. Introduction
                                                                                                   1.2      DDM Intent
                                                                                                   The District Development Model (DDM) and piloting intent is to undertake more
1.1       Purpose                                                                                  intensive work in the pilot areas and to mobilise resources to facilitate the shift
The purpose of the eThekwini One Plan is:                                                          towards joint planning, budgeting and implementation approaches. The piloting
                                                                                                   approach is based on the recognition that intergovernmental planning and
   i.     To give effect to the District Development Model (DDM) approved by                       coordination is a complex task and the shift towards a practical implementation
          cabinet as a practical method to improve service delivery and                            model such as DDM is needed but will need to be undertaken and institutionalised
          development impact in the eThekwini metropolitan space through                           over a period of time. Whilst DDM activities such as the Profiling were initiated in
          integrated planning, budgeting and delivery by all three spheres of                      all 52 district/metropolitan spaces the more intensive focus in the Pilots is aimed
          government working together with stakeholders and communities;                           at developing prototypes and lessons that can be shared across the country.

   ii.    To localise and synergise the National Development Plan (NDP), the                       In the midst of the piloting process, the country was struck by the global Covid-19
          Medium Term Strategic           Framework (MTSF), National Spatial                       pandemic in March 2020 and the objectives of the DDM had to be further
          Development Framework (NSDF), Integrated Urban Development                               accentuated and tailored to ensure the following is addressed in the One Plan:
          Framework (IUDF) and key national and provincial sector                                       a) Strategic Response to Socio-Economic impact of Covid-19:
          policies/strategies/plans with socio-economic and spatial development                                  • Immediate and Long-Term
          logic of the eThekwini space.                                                                          • Economic recovery and Economic resilience
                                                                                                        b) Stimulate new thinking, new socio-economic paradigms, new and bold
  iii.    To express a coherent and predictable government approach in relation                             solutions and alternatives;
          to these key priorities through a Long-Term Strategic Framework (One                          c) Fundamentally change conditions on the ground:
          Plan) for growth and development of the eThekwini metropolitan space
                                                                                                                 • People
          that is co-produced by all three spheres of government together with
                                                                                                                 • Economy
          stakeholders and communities;
                                                                                                                 • Space
                                                                                                        d) Focus on Desired Future, Results and Outcomes;
  iv.     To enable a programmatic Intergovernmental Relations approach in                              e) Develop resilience and prosperity of the pilot spaces contributing to
          relation to eThekwini through implementation of the One Plan that will                            overall Country resilience;
          serve as an impact performance framework tracking the commitments                             f) Facilitate Responsive Institutions and Change Management; and
          and spending of national and provincial sector departments and the                            g) Embed and Institutionalise a Programmatic Approach to Cooperative
          eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality according to the shared vision and                            Governance and Inter-Governmental Relations.
          desired future development of eThekwini and its people.

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                     3
EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
1.3       One Plan                                                                                 (d) Infrastructure Engineering – the process by which infrastructure planning and
The eThekwini One Plan is based on the DDM Theory of Change which postulates                           investment especially bulk infrastructure installation occurs in order to
six transformations to move from the current problematic situation to a desired                        support the transforming spatial pattern and form, meet the needs of a
better future. Whilst existing plans across government seek to align to the NDP                        competitive and inclusive local economy and integrated human settlements,
and to each other, there is no clear single line of sight and logical rationale or                     and ensure demand for housing and services is met in a sustainable way over
relations in terms of commonly agreed priorities and joint and coherent way of                         the long-term.
addressing them within the socio-economic and inclusive and integrated place-
                                                                                                   (e) Integrated Services Provisioning – the process by which integrated human
making dynamics within specified spaces.
                                                                                                       settlement, municipal and community services are delivered in partnership
These six DDM Transformation Focal Areas are:                                                          with communities so as to transform spatial patterns and development for
                                                                                                       planned integrated sustainable human settlements with an integrated
(a) People Development and Demographics – the process of understanding the                             infrastructure network. This also requires holistic household level service
    current population profile and development dynamics and by which a desired                         delivery in the context of a social wage and improved jobs and livelihoods
    demographic profile and radical improvement in the quality of life of the
    people is achieved through skills development and the following 5                              (f) Governance and Management – the process by which leadership and
    transformations discussed below (economic positioning, spatial restructuring                       management is exercised, in particular, that planning, budgeting,
    and environmental sustainability, infrastructure engineering, housing and                          procurement, delivery, financial and performance management takes place in
    services provisioning, and governance and management).                                             an effective, efficient, accountable and transparent manner. It also includes
                                                                                                       spatial governance, that is, the process by which the spatial transformation
(b) Economic Positioning – the process by which a competitive edge is created                          goals are achieved through assessing and directing land development and
    that enables domestic and foreign investment attraction and job creation on                        undertaking effective land use management and release of municipal/public
    the basis of an inclusive and transformed economy. The economic positioning                        land.
    informs the spatial restructuring and has to be sustained through protecting,
    nurturing and harnessing natural environment and resources.                                                                            People
(c) Spatial Restructuring and Environmental Sustainability – the process by                                                                              Governance
                                                                                                                          Economic                          and
    which a transformed, efficient and environmentally sustainable spatial                                               Positioning                     Management

    development pattern and form is created to support a competitive local                                                              One
    economy and integrated sustainable human settlements. Spatial restructuring
                                                                                                                                        Plan              Integrated
    informs infrastructure investment in terms of quantum as well as location and                                       Restructuring
    layout of infrastructure networks.                                                                                                  Infrastructure

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                  4
EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
The One Plan is defined as a Long-Term Strategic Framework (LTSF) that expresses:                  command council as well as various responses including economic recovery,
                                                                                                   health and safety measures, mitigating gender based violence, packaging catalytic
      •    A common understanding amongst all three spheres of government and                      infrastructure projects and advancing port decongestion and efficiency actions.
           stakeholders about the current state of development in eThekwini and
           the effectiveness of current intergovernmental planning, budgeting and                  The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister
           implementation;                                                                         Nkosazana Zuma as part of the DDM Monitoring and Oversight, undertook a
      •    A shared vision of development and desired future outcomes and                          Ministerial Visit to the eThekwini DDM Pilot on the 19th and the 23rd of
           impacts to be realised incrementally over a 30 year period especially                   November 2020. Co-hosted by eThekwini Mayor Kaunda, led by the eThekwini
           spatial and built environment transformation, bulk infrastructure                       MEC Champion Kwazi Mshengu and the DDM Political Champions Deputy
           alignment towards spatial priorities and fundamental socio-economic                     Ministers Nocawe Mafu, John Jeffery and KZNCOGTA MEC Sipho Hlomuka, the
           change with drastic improvement in wholistic people development and                     Two-Day Visit reflected on the progress made since the launch of the Pilot in 2019.
                                                                                                   The Visit also served as a Launchpad for the acceleration and completion of the
      •    An agreed set of impact-oriented strategies that outline the approach
                                                                                                   One Plan, a joint planning process for all of Government and marked the first step
           and priority actions required to realise the vision and desired future
                                                                                                   of Metro based stakeholder engagements on the development of the One Plan.
           outcomes and impacts; and
                                                                                                   The Ministerial Visit included a variety of Stakeholder Engagements with city
      •    Identification of key role players across all three spheres of government
                                                                                                   political and administrative leadership, local businesses, and key social and
           and stakeholders relevant to each identified strategy, and an agreed set
                                                                                                   economic development programmes in eThekwini. This also included engagement
           of enablers and Commitments by each one of them to give effect to
                                                                                                   on the process of real joint planning across the three spheres of government based
           Implementation of the identified strategy in the immediate, short,
                                                                                                   on a pre-assessment of the challenges, development potential and a discussion on
           medium and long term.
                                                                                                   the catalytic projects based on evidence collated from municipalities, the province
                                                                                                   and strategic national departments, i.e. the profiles, IDPs, SDFs etc. The Visit
1.4       One Plan Formulation Process                                                             focused on the Re-imagining and Visioning of the Metro towards the development
                                                                                                   of a Long-Term Plan, identifying low hanging fruits/quick wins for implementing
The formulation of the eThekwini One Plan has been a journey that started with
                                                                                                   DDM, a focus on addressing women and youth participation in the Economy and a
the Presidential launch of the eThekwini DDM pilot in October 2019. This ran
                                                                                                   discussion on the Economic Recovery Plan.
simultaneous with the eThekwini profiling exercise that was presented at the
launch and further refined afterwards. The Profile provides a status quo of socio-                 The three Site Visits on the Homeless and the Gender Based Violence (GBV)
economic development, service delivery progress, infrastructure, governance and                    Hotspots was a demonstration of the city innovations in dealing with the social
financial management situation.                                                                    challenges in the midst of Covid-19, the urgent need to respond to the scourge of
                                                                                                   Gender Based Violence in the top city crime hotspot. In seeking solutions to
The broader DDM implementation has run in parallel to the One Plan process and
                                                                                                   address hunger and poverty through the creation of employment opportunities,
included the intergovernmental management of COVID-19 through local
                                                                                                   the DDM is leveraged around the Metro Catalytic Projects. The Site Visit to the

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                    5
EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
Keystone Development was aimed at emphasising the need for Government to                               •   A follow-up 2-day Intergovernmental Working Session focussing on
respond to the list of Intergovernmental Planning (IGP) and Inter-Governmental                             Vision Setting and Strategy Formulation inputs was held on 3-4th February
Relations challenges and blockages in implementing the Catalytic Projects as                               2021 where further feedback from all three spheres of government on
flagged in the various government Forums including the DDM Platforms.                                      the draft Diagnostic report was provided.
                                                                                                       •   The draft Vision and Strategy Formulation was presented and discussed
The Overall Reflections by the Minister on the Visit noted and acknowledged the
                                                                                                           together with Implementation Commitment inputs at the third
strides made on the DDM implementation since the launch in 2019, but the clarion
                                                                                                           Intergovernmental Working Session that was held on 3-4th March 2021.
call to fast-track visible programmes and interventions that will change the lives of
                                                                                                       •   The draft One Plan, once approved by the eThekwini Political Hub, will be
people in communities was made. Working together as all of government is the
                                                                                                           engaged with stakeholders and communities as part of the IDP process
core of this model. The Minister and the Political Champions reaffirmed their
                                                                                                           ensuring that the One Plan as a Long-Term Strategic Framework and the
commitment to mobilize the relevant support for the eThekwini Pilot. The
                                                                                                           eThekwini IDP which is a five-year plan with the current review having an
proposal to have Quarterly Monitoring Sessions of the Pilot and flagging the
                                                                                                           end of electoral term focus and enabling continuity into the next term of
progress of the DDM Pilots at the Government Makgotlas is a commitment to
                                                                                                           office mutually reinforce each other.
ensuring that the eThekwini Metro DDM pilot is a success.

Following the Ministerial Visit, there was a series of Intergovernmental Technical
Working sessions (Design Thinking Workshops) in tandem with assessment and
integration of various existing studies and plans that informed the drafting of a
Diagnostic Report, the Vision Setting, Strategy Formulation and Implementation
Commitments adapted as per the One Plan stages outlined in the DDM Circular
and set of One Plan guidelines issued by the Director-General of CoGTA on 19
January 2021. The following working sessions were held:

     •    Each eThekwini Metro department held their own diagnostic sessions
          that culminated in a City diagnostic workshop in early December 2020;
     •    This input informed the deliberations at the 2-day Intergovernmental
          Diagnostic Working session held on 8-9th December 2020 with officials
          from all three spheres of government which was opened by eThekwini
          Mayor Kaunda with context and direction setting remarks;
     •    The draft diagnostic report was prepared. Feedback on the draft
          Diagnostic was provided by the eThekwini DDM Political Hub.                              The One Plan formulation process was adapted into a fast-tracked approach based
                                                                                                   on the above DDM One Plan Roadmap as contained in the One Plan Guidelines.

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                  6
EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
1.5               One Plan Outline                                                                                                                                      2. Diagnostic Summary
The following sections of this One Plan are arranged as per the One Plan stages,
                                                                                                                                                                        The diagnostic stage of the One Plan entailed a critical analysis of the service
      •           Diagnostic Findings and Implications                                                                                                                  delivery, development and governance situation in eThekwini in relation to each
      •           Vision Setting - eThekwini Vision 2050                                                                                                                DDM Focal Area, and an appreciation of the prevailing Context and Trends that
      •           Strategy Formulation                                                                                                                                  shape the eThekwini metropolitan space and economy.
      •           Implementation Commitments
                                                                                                                                                                        The eThekwini Diagnostic Report can be referred to for the detailed outline of the
      •           Conclusion – One Plan as IG and Social Compact
                                                                                                                                                                        key diagnostic issues. In this section a summary and synthesis of the diagnostic is
The One Plan content, centred on eThekwini Vision 2050, follows the DDM Theory                                                                                          presented.
of Change and logical framework and is structured in relation to the six DDM
Transformation Focal Areas or Goals, as shown in the diagram below.                                                                                                     2.1      SWOT Analysis
                                                                                                                                                                        eThekwini has a locational advantage with Port infrastructure, great climate and
                                                                                                                                                                        beaches for tourism and leisure, and strong heritage and culture. It is endowed
              Current           DDM Goal 4                                                                             DDM Goal 1                Current
                                                     Desired Future                                 Desired Future
             Situation         Infrastructure                                                                            People                 Situation               with the ocean and a natural environment and resources that have to be better
                                                      Outcomes &                                     Outcomes &
                                                       Indicators                                     Indicators
                                                                                                                        Strategies                                      valued. It has many talented people but not always able to retain them due to
                                & Enablers
                                                                                                                        & Enablers
                                                                                                                                                                        limited opportunities in the local economy. Located within the Province of Kwa-
                                                                         eThekwini Vision 2050                                                                          Zulu-Natal, it is a strategic space within the national economy with potential for
                                                                          A Leading Smart Port
                         DDM Goal 5
                                              Desired Future
                                                                            City Region that is             Desired Future
                                                                                                                                  DDM Goal 2
                                                                                                                                                                        growth of key economic sectors. eThekwini makes up 34,7% of KZN and 6,9% of
                                                                           Just, Safe, Resilient,
                                               Outcomes &                Socially Cohesive and               Outcomes &
                                                                                                                                                                        SA population, accounting for 65% of provincial GDP and 51% of employment.
                                                Indicators                Culturally Expressive               Indicators
                                                                                                                                                                        eThekwini makes up 8,7% of the national economy.
                         Commitments                                                                                             Commitments
                          & Enablers                                                                                              & Enablers

                   Current             DDM Goal 6                                                                          DDM Goal 3              Current
                                                        Desired Future                                Desired Future
                  Situation            Governance                                                                          Space & Env            Situation

                                                         Outcomes &                                    Outcomes &
                                       Strategies                                                                            Strategies
                                                          Indicators                                    Indicators

                                   Commitments                                                                          Commitments
                                    & Enablers                                                                           & Enablers

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                                                                                         7
eThekwini’s many endowments and great potential has to be harnessed better                               Big Shifts Needed
through a more coordinated approach between all three spheres of government                                  •    Massify & optimise industrial structure
and through greater performance accountability in terms of the powers and                                    •    Marshal all society & structure partnerships
functions of all three spheres of government as they relate to having an impact                              •    Link communities to skills revolution
within the area on service delivery, development and sustainability. There are a                                  (especially youth and women)
number of structural and systemic challenges and threats that have to be                                     •    Link economic activities regionally
addressed. Some of the key issues emanating from the DDM processes including                                 •    Interlink district/metro, provincial and national economies
the Ministerial engagements highlight the following in respect of eThekwini:                                 •    Link to regional (AcFTA) and global markets

                                                                                                                     Honorable Minister for CoGTA, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma -
                                                                                                             Presentation at KZN Premier’s Coordinating Forum (PCF) (11 September 2020)
                         Strengths                        Challenges

                      Endowments                       Dual Economy
                           Port                         Structural and
                                                       Systemic Issues
                                                                                                   2.2      Structural and Systemic Challenges
                     Climate, Ocean
                                                                                                   The structural economic constraints and barriers together with triple challenges of
                      Tourism Base                   Inclusive Economic
                                                                                                   poverty, inequality and unemployment facing the country manifest in eThekwini
                  Manufacturing Base                                                               in particular ways and have to be addressed within the framework of the analytics
                                                   Growth Management                               and objectives of the National Development Plan (NDP). The NDP Vision is to
                       Real Estate
                                                                                                   eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. The diagnostic undertaken by
                                                                                                   the National Planning Commission (NPC) in preparing the NDP back in 2011
                                                                                                   remains relevant in general:
                 Bridge Dual Economy                Global Conditions &
                     (urban/rural;                                                                           1. Too few people work
                   formal/informal)                                                                          2. The quality of school education for black people is poor
                                                                                                             3. Infrastructure is poorly located, inadequate and under-maintained
                 Unlock Endowments                                                                           4. Spatial divides hobble inclusive development
                                                     Governance &
                   Massify Upskilling              Management Failure                                        5. The economy is unsustainably resource intensive
                  Micro and Informal                                                                         6. The public health system cannot meet demand or sustain quality
                  economy support                                                                            7. Public services are uneven and often of poor quality
                                                                                                             8. Corruption levels are high
                      Opportunities                         Threats                                          9. South Africa remains a divided society.

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                          8
                 Covid-19 recession
                 Brexit and Trade wars
                                                                          Strengthening and modernization of, and broad
                                                                          participation in, the growth of the local economy, in
                                                                                                                                  2.3         Trend Analysis
                                                                          order secure inclusive, resilient and innovative
      context    Conflict in the middle east
                 Africa CFTA                                              growth and employment outcomes, in a                    The key big trends that will impact on eThekwini in a way that could either further
                 Health of trading partners                               sustainable manner.

                 Apartheid legacy and dual economy
                                                                                                                                  exacerbate structural and systemic problems or serve to address them are
      National National growth picture is negative                                                                                summarised in the table below.
      context Electricity constraints
                 Skills deficit                                                          A compact, productive and livable
                 Unsustainable growth in social spend                     Impact targets city that connects citizens with
Structural       Dysfunctional space economy                                             economic opportunities
Unemployment,    Underperforming public health care
                                                                                                                                  The implication of these trends for eThekwini will be for government to get far
                 Poor education outcomes
poverty and
                 Lagging in innovation and technology                                    Increased industrialisation,             better organised in getting a strategic handle over the future and preparing for it
inequality                                                                Impact targets localisation and investment
                 The inequality effect
                 Technological change and 4IR                                            attraction in targeted industries        in a focused way. There are two scenarios that could play out if the trends are
                 Climate risk and water supply
                 Government inefficiency (incl. SOEs)                                                                             either resisted or embraced as shown in this diagram:
                 Low business confidence                                                 Government that is customer
                                                                          Impact targets centric, enabling, efficient and
               Low buying power – but more food secure                                   integrated
               High social spend but low economic gain
               Key advantage sectors are underperforming
               Labour absorbing sectors are not growing                   Impact targets An inclusive and shared economy
       Local   Township economies are under-capitalized, lacks security
       context Entrepreneurship is underperforming
               Innovation is lagging and govt is not enabling                              Growth of the tourism and cultural
                                                                          Impact targets                                             Trends                       Scenarios                                   Results
               Slow progress reversing apartheid legacy                                    & creative industries
               Social capital is not growing – dysfunctional TVET
               Economy has stalled hence no jobs                                                                                    COVID-19                     Scenario 1                  Structural Unemployment, Poverty,
                                                                                                                                     Impact                                               Inequality & Systemic Challenges Worsen
                                                                                                                                                                Slow Change                Ineffective and Unsustainable Economic Model
                   Economy Diagnostic, eThekwini Economic Development Unit, 2021                                                                          Government Resists Trends               Undervalued Natural Ecosystems
                                                                                                                                  SMART Cities          and change, does not innovate,                 Unequal Spatial Planning
                                                                                                                                   and SMART             does not make tough choices,                   Strained Communities
                                                                                                                                                          and does not prioritise and                  Constrained Municipality
                                                                                                                                    Societies                                                Ineffective Governance and Administration
                                                                                                                                                          sequence implementation.
The structural and systemic poverty, unemployment and inequality runs deep in                                                                            Continues to operate in silos                 Skills Gap and Mismatch
                                                                                                                                                                                               Social Disruption, Unrest, Crime
eThekwini. Over half of the population is living below the upper bound poverty                                                     Urbanisation
                                                                                                                                                           without impact-oriented
                                                                                                                                                                                              Unsafe and Insecure Communities
and social ills and discontentment is raising. If the situation continues on this
trajectory then there is a very bleak future for the young people of eThekwini who                                                   Climate                     Scenario 2
                                                                                                                                                                                             Structural Unemployment, Poverty,
                                                                                                                                                                                         Inequality & Systemic Challenges Overcome
make up 63% of the current population. It will be even bleaker for future                                                            Change                     Fast Change               Bridge Dual Economy – Integrated, Competitive,
                                                                                                                                                          Government Embraces Trends,       Inclusive, Resilient and Innovative economy
generations to come.                                                                                                                                         Improves Policies, Adopts
                                                                                                                                    Inequality           Innovative socio-economic and   Coordinated and Sustainable Infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                              service delivery models,         Investment – Growth Management
                                                                                                                                                                                           StructuralCurrent Situation in respect of poverty,
The situation is made worse by COVID-19. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic                                                                               Formulates Integrated Long-      Empowered
                                                                                                                                                                                                     and unemployment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             and citizenry
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     and mismatch
                                                                                                                                   Government                  Term Impact Oriented         vulnerability of people. Skills           widens
is still not fully understood or known. The duration of the impact is also not known                                                                          Strategies and Improves           healthy city, healthy communities
                                                                                                                                                            Implementation Capability           Smart, Just, Resilient and Safe City
and the outcome in relation to life returning to “normal” is uncertain. At the same
time it is an opportunity for resetting and doing things differently in respect of
addressing inequality and building community level resilience. The society that will
emerge out of COVID can be very different. It is also likely to be increasingly driven
by technology and digital transformation which is taking place at an accelerated
pace. Driving and creating a conducive environment for public and private sector
innovation is going to be critical for survival and to build long-term resilience.

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                                                                                 9
Trend           Description                                                                                                      2.4      Diagnostic Summary - Six Transformations
                                                                                                                                  There is a mutually reinforcing and interdependent relationship between the six
 Post COVID-19   The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on the way societies and economies may change is                      DDM transformation focal areas. The key issues emerging under each area is
 world           uncertain but there is real risk of long-term consequences such as increase in inequalities and social
                 deprivation. There may be long-lasting changes in the nature of work and consumer behaviours                     summarised below. One of the key objectives of the One Plan is to support an
                 facilitated by technology – on-line work and shopping, etc. There may also be likely long-term impacts           integrated systems approach to making sense of these issues and undertaking
                 on improving food value chains, environmental and public health, and management of natural
                 resources. Change in values of people and society may shift from pursuit of happiness through material           strategy and decision-making accordingly.
                 goods towards reconnecting with nature, pursuing authentic and soulful experiences, and building
                 better relations with people and within communities. eThekwini Economic Recovery plan and actions
                 need to be effective.                                                                                             DDM Diagnostic Area      Key Issues
 Smart Cities    There are big shifts globally towards Smart Cities and Smart Societies enabled by technology and
                                                                                                                                   People Development       •     Extremely high levels of poverty – Over half the city residents
 and Smart       innovations of the 4th Industrial Revolution. These include IoT (Internet of Things), Big Data, AI (Artificial
 Societies       Intelligence), Robotics and Shared Economy. Countries such as Japan are leading transitions to what is                                           (2,1 million people) live below the upper bound poverty line
                 referred to as Society 5.0 which is aimed at using these innovations and transcending the Information                                      •     Social challenges are much larger than in the other metros
                 age for resolving social challenges and creating better Human life. Smart Cities can be more than
                 technology driven cities. They ought to be about how technology can enable smart systems,                                                  •     Low skills levels and poor education outcomes
                 infrastructure, governance and service delivery that addresses needs of people and society in inclusive                                    •     Low HDI and high level of vulnerability
                 and affordable ways.
 Urbanisation    By 2030 almost three quarter of the country’s population (71.3%) will be living in urban areas. This is
                                                                                                                                                            •     This has major implications for societal well-being and for
                 according to the Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF) which is government’s policy                                                      economic growth and development
                 position to guide the future growth and management of urban areas premised on giving effect to the                                         •     Support upliftment of people and communities as part of
                 global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the NDP. The IUDF’s overall envisaged outcome is
                 spatial transformation where urban growth is steered towards model of compact, connected and                                                     realising socio-economic and spatial justice
                 coordinated cities and towns and development of inclusive, resilient and liveable settlements.                                             •      Focus on skills development for the competitive mainstream
 Climate         The impact of climate change is seeing many shifts taking place in respect of reducing carbon
 Change          footprint of cities and settlements, better and smarter utilisation of resources and smarter food
                                                                                                                                                                  economy as well as for informal, social and solidarity
                 production. According to the international Energy Agency’s global energy trends report forecasting                                               economy
                 energy trends to 2040, renewables such as wind, solar, and hydropower will surpass coal as the world’s                                     •     Need to unlock the heritage, culture and creative talents of
                 dominant source of electricity by 2030. Africa currently has about 40% of the world’s potential for solar
                 energy. South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan supports a diverse energy mix to ensure the security of                                          People in an inclusive way and build social cohesion
                 electricity supply.                                                                                               Economic Positioning     •     The Durban Ports are a critical endowment not only for
 Inequality      Rising inequality is a growing global trend and challenge. According to the United Nations (UN) World
                 Social Report 2020, inequality is growing for more than 70% of the global population but the rise is far
                                                                                                                                                                  eThekwini but for KZN and Southern Africa. It occupies a
                 from inevitable and can be tackled. The consequence of inequality is that it slows down economic                                                 strategic role in the world space economy.
                 growth as people remain trapped in poverty across several generations. In South Africa there is
                                                                                                                                                            •     There is a big need to turn the comparative advantages that
                 continued racialised inequality manifesting as well in spatially divided cities and spaces.
 Government      The DDM is aligned with leading research and thinking on Government Trends in serving citizens better                                            eThekwini has into a competitive advantage with the Ports
                 by breaking down “Silos”, providing seamless systems and improving citizen experience. According to                                              playing a critical role.
                 the Deloitte Centre for Government Insights, due to the unprecedented changes that are shaping the
                 world, as described by the trends above, governments have to become more integrated, intuitive and                                         •     Currently the eThekwini economy is very uncompetitive
                 innovative to address social challenges and provide more personalised and engaging citizen                                                 •     Cost to export through Durban is 40% higher than OECD
                                                                                                                                                            •     Low FDI attraction compared to JHB and CT
                                                                                                                                                            •     The People Development issues, skills mismatch and
                                                                                                                                                                  inequality is a major constraint to economic growth
                                                                                                                                                            •     Economic master sector plans need to be localised and focus
                                                                                                                                                                  on creating inclusive value chains empowering SMMEs,
                                                                                                                                                                  township, rural enterprises
                                                                                                                                                            •     Harness potential of Cultural & Creative Industries

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                                                              10
Spatial Restructuring &         •    Urbanisation pressures impacting on natural resource base
                                                                                                      2.5       Projections
 Environmental Sustainability    •    Growing number of informal settlements
                                 •    Slow spatial transformation
                                 •    Inadequate public transportation system                         The One Plan enables government to have a strategic handle on future growth
                                 •    Unresolved Trust land impacting on rural development
                                 •    Need an integrated urban-rural development approach
                                                                                                      dynamics. Understanding and planning for population and household growth
                                 •    Need to improve adherence to spatial transformation,            and spatial spread is a critical anchor component for informing long-term
                                      compact city and integrated development objectives              Infrastructure investment and service provisioning. This enables proactive
 Infrastructure Engineering      •    Ageing infrastructure and high backlog in infrastructure
                                                                                                      action which strengthens investor confidence in suitable place-making.
                                 •    Between now and 2050 cater for almost 1 million new
                                      households (current backlog plus future growth)                 The following projections undertaken as part of social services planning work
                                 •    Scarce water sources
                                                                                                      that the CSIR is undertaking for eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality will
                                 •    Need for better and more secure energy
                                 •    Need coordinated infrastructure investment & Innovation to      inform the definition of a transformed core Spatial Network pattern and
                                      follow spatial restructuring                                    related spatial restructuring and infrastructure investment strategies.
 Service Provisioning            •    Insufficient allocation of budget for operations
                                 •    Lack of quality and affordable housing and basic services for
                                      the poor                                                                                                 Distribution (2011 and
                                 •    Demand for services outstripping supply
                                 •    Poor and inconsistent government service delivery levels
                                 •    Need innovative service delivery models                                                                  Regions          Population (2011) Population (2021) Population Growth
                                                                                                                                                                       2 002 955         2 236 268              11.6%
 Governance                      •    Lack of accountability and transparency with respect to use                                              Prime Corridor
                                                                                                                                                                         583 775
                                                                                                                                                                          58 203
                                                                                                                                                                                           674 682
                                                                                                                                                                                            97 570
                                      of public resources                                                                                      Sub-Urban                 653 108           694 736               6.4%
                                                                                                                                               Urban                     707 869           769 281               8.7%
                                 •    Lack of confidence by investors to invest on larger scale in                                             Inner-West                546 368           602 345              10.2%
                                                                                                                                               Prime Corridor             72 534            76 205               5.1%
                                      potential economic growth sectors and opportunities                                                      Rural                      10 160            19 132              88.3%
                                                                                                                                               Sub-Urban                 378 081           401 916               6.3%
                                 •    Inadequate customer relations management                                                                 Urban                      85 594           105 092              22.8%
                                                                                                                                               North                     153 081           197 741              29.2%
                                 •    Disempowered communities and civil society structures                                                    Prime Corridor             60 043            74 114              23.4%
                                                                                                                                               Rural                       9 723            11 671              20.0%
                                 •    Need to Unify the city and build common vision with capable                                              Sub-Urban                  40 120            44 316              10.5%
                                                                                                                                               Urban                      43 194            67 640              56.6%
                                      and professional administration                                                                          Outer-West                352 164           448 545              27.4%
                                                                                                                                               Prime Corridor             24 398            30 390              24.6%
                                                                                                                                               Rural                     142 464           189 594              33.1%
                                                                                                                                               Sub-Urban                  86 240           110 583              28.2%
                                                                                                                                               Urban                      99 062           117 977              19.1%
                                                                                                                                               South                     422 163           542 762              28.6%
                                                                                                                                               Prime Corridor             34 769            47 338              36.2%
                                                                                                                                               Rural                      82 413           113 723              38.0%
                                                                                                                                               Sub-Urban                 237 295           298 685              25.9%
                                                                                                                                               Urban                      67 687            83 016              22.6%
                                                                                                                                               Grand Total             3 476 731         4 027 660              15.8%

                                                                                                        Source: CSIR, 2021

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                                                        11
Based on current trends the population projection and spread is shown in the table
below. This will be used to inform a spatial transformation intervention that may
                                                                                                                           2030 transformation
change the future spread based on the transformation scenarios as well on a                                                scenario
vacant land availability assessment to assess accommodating future growth with                                                            Population       2021 - 2030        2021 - 2030
                                                                                                                         Region           (2030)           Additional Pop Intervention
appropriate densification and compactness.                                                                               Central                 2 516 390           280 122           280 122
                                                                                                                         Prime Corridor            759 179             84 497           42 018
                                                                                                                         Rural                     109 792             12 222           56 024
                                                                                                                         Sub-Urban                 781 712             86 976           84 037
eThekwini      Population Population Population                                                                          Urban                     865 707             96 427           98 043
                                                                                                                         Inner-West                677 822             75 477           75 477
Regions        (2011)       (2021)        (2030)           Population (2050)                                             Prime Corridor             85 721              9 515           11 322
                                                                                                                         Rural                      21 528              2 396           15 095
Central           2 002 955     2 236 268        2 516 390         2 724 365                                             Sub-Urban
                                                                                                                                                   452 312
                                                                                                                                                   118 261
                                                                                                                                                                       50 396
                                                                                                                                                                       13 169
                                                                                                                                                                                        22 643
                                                                                                                                                                                        26 417
Prime Corridor      583 775       674 682          759 179           821 881                                             North
                                                                                                                         Prime Corridor
                                                                                                                                                   222 529
                                                                                                                                                    83 400
                                                                                                                                                                       24 788
                                                                                                                                                                        9 286
                                                                                                                                                                                        24 788
                                                                                                                                                                                          3 718
                                                                                                                         Rural                      13 133              1 462             4 958
Rural                58 203        97 570          109 792           118 862                                             Sub-Urban                  49 864              5 548             7 436
                                                                                                                         Urban                      76 133              8 492             8 676
Sub-Urban           653 108       694 736          781 712           846 324                                             Outer-West                504 707             56 163           56 163
                                                                                                                         Prime Corridor             34 195              3 805             8 424
Urban               707 869       769 281          865 707           937 298                                             Rural                     213 336             23 743           11 233
                                                                                                                         Sub-Urban                 124 420             13 837           16 849
Inner-West          546 368       602 345          677 822           733 798                                             Urban
                                                                                                                                                   132 755
                                                                                                                                                   610 746
                                                                                                                                                                       14 778
                                                                                                                                                                       67 984
                                                                                                                                                                                        19 657
                                                                                                                                                                                        67 984
Prime Corridor       72 534        76 205           85 721            92 819                                             Prime Corridor
                                                                                                                                                    53 238
                                                                                                                                                   127 968
                                                                                                                                                                        5 900
                                                                                                                                                                       14 244
                                                                                                                                                                                        10 198
                                                                                                                                                                                        13 597
                                                                                                                         Sub-Urban                 336 103             37 418           20 395
Rural                10 160        19 132           21 528            23 307                         1
                                                                                                                         Urban                      93 438             10 422           23 795
                                                                                                                         Total                   4 532 194           504 534           504 534
Sub-Urban           378 081       401 916          452 312           489 666
Urban                85 594       105 092          118 261           128 006
                                                                                                                           2050 transformation
North               153 081       197 741          222 529           240 895
Prime Corridor       60 043        74 114           83 400            90 301
Rural                 9 723        11 671           13 133            14 218                                             Region
                                                                                                                                                          2021 - 2050        2021 - 2050
                                                                                                                                          Population 2050 Additional Pop Intervention
                                                                                                                         Central                2 724 365           488 097           488 097
Sub-Urban            40 120        44 316           49 864            53 974                                             Prime Corridor           821 881           147 199            73 214
                                                                                                                         Rural                    118 862             21 293           97 619
Urban                43 194        67 640           76 133            82 403                                             Sub-Urban                846 324           151 588           146 429
                                                                                                                         Urban                    937 298           168 017           170 834
Outer-West          352 164       448 545          504 707           546 426                                             Inner-West               733 798           131 453           131 453
                                                                                                                         Prime Corridor            92 819             16 614           19 718
Prime Corridor       24 398        30 390           34 195            37 019                                             Rural                     23 307              4 175           26 291
                                                                                                                         Sub-Urban                489 666             87 750           39 436
Rural               142 464       189 594          213 336           230 956                                             Urban
                                                                                                                                                  128 006
                                                                                                                                                  240 895
                                                                                                                                                                      22 914
                                                                                                                                                                      43 154
                                                                                                                                                                                       46 009
                                                                                                                                                                                       43 154
Sub-Urban            86 240       110 583          124 420           134 690                                             Prime Corridor
                                                                                                                                                   90 301
                                                                                                                                                   14 218
                                                                                                                                                                      16 187
                                                                                                                                                                       2 547
                                                                                                                                                                                         6 473
                                                                                                                                                                                         8 631
                                                                                                                         Sub-Urban                 53 974              9 658           12 946
Urban                99 062       117 977          132 755           143 760                                             Urban                     82 403             14 762           15 104
                                                                                                                         Outer-West               546 426             97 882           97 882
South               422 163       542 762          610 746           661 138                                             Prime Corridor            37 019              6 630           14 682
                                                                                                                         Rural                    230 956             41 362           19 576
Prime Corridor       34 769        47 338           53 238            57 613                                             Sub-Urban                134 690             24 107           29 364
                                                                                                                         Urban                    143 760             25 783           34 259
Rural                82 413       113 723          127 968           138 539                                             South
                                                                                                                         Prime Corridor
                                                                                                                                                  661 138
                                                                                                                                                   57 613
                                                                                                                                                                    118 376
                                                                                                                                                                      10 275
                                                                                                                                                                                      118 376
                                                                                                                                                                                       17 756
Sub-Urban           237 295       298 685          336 103           363 866                        21
                                                                                                                                                  138 539
                                                                                                                                                  363 866
                                                                                                                                                                      24 816
                                                                                                                                                                      65 181
                                                                                                                                                                                       23 675
                                                                                                                                                                                       35 513
                                                                                                                         Urban                    101 119             18 104           41 432
Urban                67 687        83 016           93 438           101 119                                             Total                  4 906 622           878 962           878 962

Grand Total       3 476 731     4 027 660        4 532 194         4 906 622                       Source:

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                            12
2.6       The Big Diagnostic Issues Informing the One Plan                                         ❑ Accelerate Social Interventions and People Upliftment
The trend analysis together with the DDM Focal Area analysis summarised above                            o The social challenges in eThekwini are proportionately larger than in
informs the diagnostic summary. The big issues emerging from the eThekwini                                   the other four large metros
diagnostic indicate the need to:                                                                         o Extremely high levels of poverty, low education, skills and income
                                                                                                             levels. Low HDI and high youth and township unemployment.
❑ Reimagine eThekwini                                                                                    o Major social issues: Poor education outcomes and low skills, high
      o Based on the diagnostic issues and trends, the current development                                   number of child-headed households, communicable diseases, GBV,
          trajectory in eThekwini has to change drastically so that people are                               alcoholism, teenage pregnancy
          not left behind. This implies that bold and new interventions at                               o Low Human Development and inequality is a major constraint to
          growing and transforming the economy will be required.                                             economic growth of the metro
      o A vision based approach is needed of what eThekwini can be as a                                  o Functional work place skills development is a critical employment
          dynamic economic space for the country and a spatially                                             success factor for people
          transformed inclusive place with sustainable growth, development                               o Support social and solidarity economy
          and smart living prospects for its residents
      o This has to be underpinned by a new development philosophy and                             ❑ Increase Investment Attraction
          approach centred on addressing the dual economy, advancing well-                               o FDI lower than Johannesburg and Cape Town despite certain
          being of the people and supporting greater self-reliance of residents                               advantages
          and communities                                                                                o Durban port is 40% more expensive than OECD average
      o Converting comparative advantages in transport, freight and logistics                            o Leverage Export Hub potential – link to regional and national
          into a well-defined competitive advantage centred on a Smart Port                                   manufacturing, freight and logistics strategy
          City as the key export hub of the country incorporating critical                               o Low Human Development and skills levels is a big factor in ability to
          international lessons and learnings                                                                 attract investment
      o Identify and grow Localisation opportunities                                                     o Need a competitive platform – Reliable and cost competitive Energy
      o Support SMMEs in the manufacturing sector                                                             provision, coordinated infrastructure, compact and well-governed
      o This must be built as an Intergovernmental Vision and supported                                       space
          accordingly with clear impact oriented actions and performances
      o Building key sectors such as Tourism and the Cultural and Creative                         ❑ Unlock Land and Rural Development
          Industries (Film, Fashion, Food, Music, Arts and Entertainment) as                             o Sprawling and unmanaged costly servicing and land development on
          critical job creation drivers                                                                      Trust land
      o A digitally enabled City and digitally empowered citizens                                        o Ownership issues and need to unlock urban planning, municipal
                                                                                                             servicing and economic development

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                             13
o     A vision for rural development within integrated metropolitan                                     implementing electoral mandate but insulated from party politics
                context                                                                                           and refrains from being political actors themselves (National
          o     Support agriculture and agro-processing                                                           Implementation Framework towards Professionalisation of the
                                                                                                                  Public Service, published for comment, 22 December 2020)
❑ Undertake Infrastructure Investment in strategic and sustainable way
     o Intergovernmental coordinated infrastructure investment guided by
         spatial transformation objectives, desired spatial form, densification
         and priority development areas.
                                                                                                   3. eThekwini Vision 2050
     o Intergovernmental Coordinated infrastructure investment and urban
         growth management with regard to catalytic projects and integrated                        3.1      Vision Setting
         human settlements – aim at building functional and sustainable                            The eThekwini Vision 2050 is based on the diagnostic findings discussed in the
         places                                                                                    section above and is informed by the vision of the country as set out in the National
     o Accelerate Spatial Transformation, Environmental Resilience, and                            Development Plan (NDP) and other key policies and plans across government.
         implementation of critical plans “Shape Durban”, SDF and BEPPS
     o City needs to reposition itself in providing energy to customers – find                      National        The NDP aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. It aims to
         better ways of providing electricity                                                       Development     increase employment, income levels and standards of living through 10 Critical
                                                                                                    Plan (NDP)      Actions:

❑ Improve Governance and Administration across all 3 spheres                                                        1. A social compact to reduce poverty and inequality, and raise employment
                                                                                                                    and investment.
      o Improve accountability and transparency with respect to use of
                                                                                                                    2. A strategy to address poverty and its impacts by broadening access to
          public resources                                                                                          employment, strengthening the social wage, improving public transport and
      o Improve customer relations management - utilise technology better                                           raising rural incomes.
                                                                                                                    3. Steps by the state to professionalise the public service, strengthen
          to improve customer experience                                                                            accountability, improve coordination and prosecute corruption.
      o Unify the city and build common vision with capable and professional                                        4. Boost private investment in labour-intensive areas, competitiveness and
                                                                                                                    exports, with adjustments to lower the risk of hiring younger workers.
          administration                                                                                            5. An education accountability chain, with lines of responsibility from state to
      o Advance Intergovernmental joint planning, budgeting and                                                     classroom.
                                                                                                                    6. Phase in national health insurance, with a focus on upgrading public health
          implementation                                                                                            facilities, producing more health professionals and reducing the relative cost of
      o Intergovernmental compact outlining how provision of services will                                          private health care.
                                                                                                                    7. Public infrastructure investment at 10 percent of gross domestic product
          be undertaken and improved
                                                                                                                    (GDP), financed through tariffs, public-private partnerships, taxes and loans
      o Improve Social Compacting and impact accountability                                                         and focused on transport, energy and water.
      o Professionalise public service and city administration - in line with                                       8. Interventions to ensure environmental sustainability and resilience to future
          latest recommendations from Department of Public Service and
          Administration for having administration that is committed to

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                                  14
9. New spatial norms and standards – densifying cities, improving transport,                               7.    Create balance between development and conservation –
                   locating jobs where people live, upgrading informal settlements and fixing                                       sustainability
                   housing market gaps.                                                                                       8.    Develop an inclusive rural economy – agrarian reform
                   10. Reduce crime by strengthening criminal justice and improving community                                 9.    Strengthen functional rural-urban linkages
                   environments.                                                                                              10.   Protect high value agricultural land
                                                                                                                              11.   Protect natural water resources
                   Visioning element - Our future - make it work                                                              12.   Revitalise small towns – urban renewal
                   South Africa belongs to all its peoples. We, the people, belong to one another.                            13.   Promote urban compaction
                   We live the rainbow. Our homes, neighbourhoods, villages, towns, and cities are                            14.   Protect core bio-diversity assets
                   safe and filled with laughter. Through our institutions, we order our lives. The                           15.   Plan for a growing urban population
                   faces of our children tell of the future we have crafted.                                                  16.   Promote clustering of public/social facilities

 Draft National    The NSDF vision - All our People Living in Shared and Transformed Places in an       Medium Term      Government has seven priorities for this electoral term - MTSF (2019 – 2024):
 Spatial           Integrated, Sustainable and Competitive National Space Economy.                      Strategic              1. Building a capable, ethical and developmental state
 Development                                                                                            Framework              2. Economic transformation and job creation
 Framework         Mission - Making our Common Desired Spatial Future Together Through Better           (MTSF)                 3. Education, skills and health
 (NSDF)            Planning, Investment, Delivery and Monitoring.                                                              4. Consolidating the social wage through reliable and quality basic
                   The NSDF national spatial vision projection is of South Africa with an estimated                            5. Spatial integration, human settlements and local government
                   population of 75 million by 2050 and a shift of settlement towards the eastern                              6. Social cohesion and safe communities
                   part of the country especially along the eastern coastline. This is driven by                               7. A better Africa and world
                   climate change factors as well as export focus on high valued and hand made          Integrated       IUDF Vision - Liveable, safe, resource- efficient cities and towns that are socially
                   products towards rest of continent and Asia.                                         Urban            integrated, economically inclusive and globally competitive, where residents
 Provincial        PGDS Vision - By 2035 KwaZulu-Natal will be a prosperous Province with a             Development      actively participate in urban life.
 Growth      &     healthy, secure and skilled population, living in dignity and harmony, acting as a   Framework
 Development       gateway to Africa and the World.                                                     (IUDF)           The IUDF’s overall envisaged outcome is spatial transformation where urban
 Strategy                                                                                                                growth is steered towards model of compact, connected and coordinated cities
 (PGDS)/PSDF       Strategic Objectives relate to :                                                                      and towns and development of inclusive, resilient and liveable settlements.
                         1. Inclusive economic growth                                                   eThekwini IDP    By 2030 eThekwini will enjoy the reputation of being Africa’s most caring and
                         2. Human resource development                                                  and     Vision   liveable city, where all citizens live in harmony
                         3. Human and community development                                             2030
                         4. Strategic infrastructure                                                                     Long Term Priorities:
                         5. Environmental sustainability                                                                 Creating a safe city
                         6. Governance and policy                                                                        Enduring a more environmentally sustainable city
                         7. Spatial equity                                                                               Promoting an accessible city
                                                                                                                         Creating a prosperous city where all enjoy sustainable livelihoods
                   PSDF Spatial Vision Directives:                                                                       Fostering a caring and empowering city
                        1. Position KZN to integrate and benefit from globalisation                                      Celebrating cultural diversity
                        2. Strengthen national and regional spatial integration and
                        3. Develop a functional and efficient spatial structure
                        4. Focus development in strategic areas with high growth potential –
                             spatial targeting
                        5. Improve settlement planning towards sustainable communities
                        6. Develop spatial structure that bolsters climate change resilience

eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation                                                                                                          15
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