EThekwini One Plan Pathway to an Envisaged Future - (Draft Document)
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eThekwini One Plan
District Development Model
Pathway to an Envisaged Future
(Draft Document)
19 March 2021
All of Government and All of
Society Working together
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3.4 ECONOMIC POSITIONING ................................................................ 17
3.5 SPATIAL RESTRUCTURING AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY ............. 17
3.6 INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING........................................................ 17
3.7 INTEGRATED SERVICE PROVISIONING ................................................. 18
Table of Contents 3.8 GOVERNANCE .............................................................................. 18
PREFACE .............................................................................................. 1 4. STRATEGIES ................................................................................ 18
1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................. 3 4.1 ONE PLAN STRATEGIC GOALS ........................................................... 18
4.2 SMART PORT CITY REGION SPATIAL NETWORK ..................................... 20
4.3 PEOPLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES ................................................... 21
1.1 PURPOSE ....................................................................................... 3
4.3 ECONOMIC POSITIONING STRATEGIES ................................................ 22
1.2 DDM INTENT ................................................................................. 3 4.4 SPATIAL RESTRUCTURING AND ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGIES .................. 23
1.3 ONE PLAN ..................................................................................... 4 4.5 INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING STRATEGIES........................................ 24
1.4 ONE PLAN FORMULATION PROCESS ..................................................... 5
4.6 INTEGRATED SERVICE PROVISIONING STRATEGIES ................................. 25
1.5 ONE PLAN OUTLINE ......................................................................... 7 4.7 GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES .................................... 26
2. DIAGNOSTIC SUMMARY ................................................................ 7 5. IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS ............................................ 27
2.1 SWOT ANALYSIS ............................................................................ 7 5.1 ONE PLAN, ONE BUDGET, ONE TEAM ................................................ 27
2.2 STRUCTURAL AND SYSTEMIC CHALLENGES ............................................. 8 5.2 PRIORITY PROGRAMMES ................................................................. 28
2.3 TREND ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 9 5.3 SKILLS DEVELOPMENT IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS ....................... 29
2.4 DIAGNOSTIC SUMMARY - SIX TRANSFORMATIONS ................................. 10 5.4 SAFETY IMPROVEMENT IMPLEMENTATION COMMITMENTS ..................... 32
2.5 PROJECTIONS ............................................................................... 11
2.6 THE BIG DIAGNOSTIC ISSUES INFORMING THE ONE PLAN ........................ 13
6. ONE PLAN IMPLEMENTATION, MONITORING & EVALUATION ...... 34
3. ETHEKWINI VISION 2050 ............................................................. 14
6.1 IMPLEMENTATION READINESS .......................................................... 34
6.2 MONITORING & EVALUATION .......................................................... 34
3.1 VISION SETTING ............................................................................ 14
3.2 VISION STATEMENT AND DESIRED FUTURE ELEMENTS ............................ 16
3.3 PEOPLE DEVELOPMENT ................................................................... 16
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only metropolitan pilot. The other two being Waterberg District in Limpopo
eThekwini One Plan Province and OR Tambo District in Eastern Cape Province. The aim of the pilots are
to test the DDM model in practice with an intensive focus to produce
intergovernmental collaboration results, unblocking priority implementation
projects, and develop prototype single joined-up plans or “One Plans” that express
the common understanding of the pilot spaces and a shared vision for
Preface development based on joint planning processes.
Government working together with stakeholders and communities aims to make The 3 pilots were identified on a balanced approach to learn from both urban and
eThekwini a leading Smart Port City Region that is just, safe, socially cohesive and rural contexts as well as District and Metropolitan areas. They were also identified
culturally expressive. on the basis of areas having significant poverty and inequality challenges yet vast
opportunity and potential cutting across mining, agricultural and ocean economy
This will result in a transformed regional economy and in the upliftment and well- sectors balancing significant environmental and tourism factors. The pilots
being of people living in eThekwini, its neighbouring districts and the Province of collectively contribute over 10% to the GDP of the country and house over 6
KwaZulu-Natal at large. million people.
eThekwini, located on the east coast of South Africa having the Durban Port as a eThekwini was chosen as a pilot in part to build on existing good practices in
gateway to global trade is one of the 52 demarcated geo-economic spaces in the relation to improving government coordination undertaken in KwaZulu-Natal such
country. Government, through the District Development Model (DDM), is viewing as Operation Sukuma Sakhe (OSS) that operationalises detailed service delivery
each of these spaces strategically and in relation to their unique conditions, coordination within municipalities. eThekwini can also offer much learning for
endowments and potentials. This more focussed approach and development of districts containing large cities and for the other 7 metropolitan spaces in the
each of these spaces will collectively and drastically improve overall inclusive country specifically in relation to:
economic growth and development of the country. • Defining a strategic and competitive economic edge;
• Addressing urbanisation and managing urban growth;
These geo-economic spaces or IGR Impact sites, directly governed by local • Building environmental resilience;
government, in this case eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, are the ideal • Undertaking spatial transformation and integrating urban and rural
convergence platforms for the whole of government where all three spheres of development within metropolitan spaces;
government can undertake their mandated functions in a more spatially targeted • Undertaking strategic and sustainable Infrastructure investment;
and collaborative way to improve service delivery and development impact.
• Implementing Area Based service delivery models; and
Government is using the DDM as a practical method to improve cooperative
• Addressing governance and stakeholder processes.
governance, in particular integrated planning, budgeting and implementation on
the basis of stakeholder and community involvement, and thereby build a capable
The eThekwini pilot was launched by President Cyril Ramaphosa in KwaMashu on
and ethical Developmental State with strong local government that can respond
18 October 2019. The outcome of the first step in the DDM, that is the profiling
to current and future needs and effectively implement national priorities.
exercise, was articulated in Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma’s address at the
launch. It showed how the triple structural and systemic challenges of poverty,
eThekwini is one of three DDM pilots that were announced in August 2019 when
unemployment and inequality facing the country that the National Development
the DDM was approved by Cabinet for implementation across the country. It is the
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 1
Plan (NDP) seeks to overcome manifests in eThekwini in particular ways. These This One Plan, aimed at delivering on the NDP objectives in the context of the
challenges run deep in eThekwini compared to the other metros and are a major eThekwini socio-economic and spatial conditions, is being co-produced by all three
constraint to economic growth and well-being despite the many endowments and spheres of government together with stakeholders and communities as a strategic
potential of the area. response and intervention to change the fortunes of the people of eThekwini. It is
a bold intervention aimed at addressing root causes and drivers of structural and
systemic poverty, unemployment and inequality, through radical upliftment and
“We must also understand and factor in the population dynamics and potentials of the
improvement in the quality of life of people in tandem with transformation of
city, which show us that 63% of the 3.9million citizens are under the age of 35, with
the economy driven by astute and visionary governance that proactively
65% of those being of a working age, if we accept that those between 15 and 64 should
be working. Although at a glance the unemployment figure of 20% maybe encouraging, generates and sustains a highly conducive and attractive environment for
it is misleading as with the decline of opportunities, there has been a drastic increase in investment, tourism and local participation.
the number of discouraged job seekers, taking unemployment to about 31%. Since 64%
of those who are discouraged have not completed primary and secondary school The joint One Plan provides government, investors and the broad public with a
education, it is revealing that 8.6% of the population has no education and only 5.8% strategic pathway in moving from the current situation to a desired future. The
have higher education, which in itself explains the unemployment situation. strategic pathway is represented by a set of impact-oriented strategies and
related implementation commitments by all three spheres of government as
We must therefore pay attention to the education, skilling, and education dimensions well as stakeholders. The performance of each sphere of government and
of the city, which shows that 17% of the citizens have no income with about 2.1 million stakeholders in relation to them embedding the implementation commitments in
of them living below the upper bound poverty line of R1 183 per person per month. It is their own strategic and annual performance plans and implementation thereof
also important to note that just over a million of these live below the food poverty line,
will determine the success of the One Plan.
which means that they live in households that cannot sustainably feed themselves.
Additionally, close to 1 million citizens are on some type of social grant and the majority
rely on remittances for survival. This One Plan as a key instrument of the DDM is championed at the highest level
by the President and Cabinet. It is facilitated by the Minister for Cooperative
Those who are fortunate to find work or have some source of income also remain Governance and Traditional Affairs who is supported by a team of political
vulnerable with over 60% of the city’s population earning less than R38 400 per month, champions constituting the eThekwini DDM Political Hub committee, being the
which is about R100 per day. When considering that daily transport costs for a majority Deputy Ministers Hon. John Jeffery and Hon. Nocawe Mafu, the Hon. MEC
of the citizen’s ranges between R17 and R35 per day, because of them living very far Kwazikwenkosi Mshengu, and His Worship, Mayor Mxolisi Kaunda.
from work. This amount is simply far too little for them to live a basic quality life, let
alone lift themselves out of poverty. The Political Hub committee is supported by an intergovernmental Technical Hub
committee and an operational Hub and takes responsibility for the One Plan
We must also pay due consideration to the fact that according to Stats SA over 42% of development process and to recommend the One Plan for approval to
the households in the city are headed by women and that there are some 8 802 Government as well as to oversee its implementation, monitoring and review. The
households headed by children.” Political Hub ensures vertical and horizontal integration and involvement of all of
government and society in the One Plan.
Abstract from speech based on the eThekwini Profile delivered by Minister Nkosazana
Dlamini Zuma on the occasion of the Presidential Launch of the eThekwini DDM Pilot,
The eThekwini One Plan and implementation thereof will deliver a better desired
18 October 2019, KwaMashu, Durban
future through accountable cooperative governance and coherent State action.
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 2
1. Introduction
1.2 DDM Intent
The District Development Model (DDM) and piloting intent is to undertake more
1.1 Purpose intensive work in the pilot areas and to mobilise resources to facilitate the shift
The purpose of the eThekwini One Plan is: towards joint planning, budgeting and implementation approaches. The piloting
approach is based on the recognition that intergovernmental planning and
i. To give effect to the District Development Model (DDM) approved by coordination is a complex task and the shift towards a practical implementation
cabinet as a practical method to improve service delivery and model such as DDM is needed but will need to be undertaken and institutionalised
development impact in the eThekwini metropolitan space through over a period of time. Whilst DDM activities such as the Profiling were initiated in
integrated planning, budgeting and delivery by all three spheres of all 52 district/metropolitan spaces the more intensive focus in the Pilots is aimed
government working together with stakeholders and communities; at developing prototypes and lessons that can be shared across the country.
ii. To localise and synergise the National Development Plan (NDP), the In the midst of the piloting process, the country was struck by the global Covid-19
Medium Term Strategic Framework (MTSF), National Spatial pandemic in March 2020 and the objectives of the DDM had to be further
Development Framework (NSDF), Integrated Urban Development accentuated and tailored to ensure the following is addressed in the One Plan:
Framework (IUDF) and key national and provincial sector a) Strategic Response to Socio-Economic impact of Covid-19:
policies/strategies/plans with socio-economic and spatial development • Immediate and Long-Term
logic of the eThekwini space. • Economic recovery and Economic resilience
b) Stimulate new thinking, new socio-economic paradigms, new and bold
iii. To express a coherent and predictable government approach in relation solutions and alternatives;
to these key priorities through a Long-Term Strategic Framework (One c) Fundamentally change conditions on the ground:
Plan) for growth and development of the eThekwini metropolitan space
• People
that is co-produced by all three spheres of government together with
• Economy
stakeholders and communities;
• Space
d) Focus on Desired Future, Results and Outcomes;
iv. To enable a programmatic Intergovernmental Relations approach in e) Develop resilience and prosperity of the pilot spaces contributing to
relation to eThekwini through implementation of the One Plan that will overall Country resilience;
serve as an impact performance framework tracking the commitments f) Facilitate Responsive Institutions and Change Management; and
and spending of national and provincial sector departments and the g) Embed and Institutionalise a Programmatic Approach to Cooperative
eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality according to the shared vision and Governance and Inter-Governmental Relations.
desired future development of eThekwini and its people.
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 3
1.3 One Plan (d) Infrastructure Engineering – the process by which infrastructure planning and
The eThekwini One Plan is based on the DDM Theory of Change which postulates investment especially bulk infrastructure installation occurs in order to
six transformations to move from the current problematic situation to a desired support the transforming spatial pattern and form, meet the needs of a
better future. Whilst existing plans across government seek to align to the NDP competitive and inclusive local economy and integrated human settlements,
and to each other, there is no clear single line of sight and logical rationale or and ensure demand for housing and services is met in a sustainable way over
relations in terms of commonly agreed priorities and joint and coherent way of the long-term.
addressing them within the socio-economic and inclusive and integrated place-
(e) Integrated Services Provisioning – the process by which integrated human
making dynamics within specified spaces.
settlement, municipal and community services are delivered in partnership
These six DDM Transformation Focal Areas are: with communities so as to transform spatial patterns and development for
planned integrated sustainable human settlements with an integrated
(a) People Development and Demographics – the process of understanding the infrastructure network. This also requires holistic household level service
current population profile and development dynamics and by which a desired delivery in the context of a social wage and improved jobs and livelihoods
demographic profile and radical improvement in the quality of life of the
people is achieved through skills development and the following 5 (f) Governance and Management – the process by which leadership and
transformations discussed below (economic positioning, spatial restructuring management is exercised, in particular, that planning, budgeting,
and environmental sustainability, infrastructure engineering, housing and procurement, delivery, financial and performance management takes place in
services provisioning, and governance and management). an effective, efficient, accountable and transparent manner. It also includes
spatial governance, that is, the process by which the spatial transformation
(b) Economic Positioning – the process by which a competitive edge is created goals are achieved through assessing and directing land development and
that enables domestic and foreign investment attraction and job creation on undertaking effective land use management and release of municipal/public
the basis of an inclusive and transformed economy. The economic positioning land.
informs the spatial restructuring and has to be sustained through protecting,
nurturing and harnessing natural environment and resources. People
Development
and
Demographics
(c) Spatial Restructuring and Environmental Sustainability – the process by Governance
Economic and
which a transformed, efficient and environmentally sustainable spatial Positioning Management
development pattern and form is created to support a competitive local One
economy and integrated sustainable human settlements. Spatial restructuring
Spatial
Plan Integrated
informs infrastructure investment in terms of quantum as well as location and Restructuring
Services
Provisioning
layout of infrastructure networks. Infrastructure
Engineering
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 4
The One Plan is defined as a Long-Term Strategic Framework (LTSF) that expresses: command council as well as various responses including economic recovery,
health and safety measures, mitigating gender based violence, packaging catalytic
• A common understanding amongst all three spheres of government and infrastructure projects and advancing port decongestion and efficiency actions.
stakeholders about the current state of development in eThekwini and
the effectiveness of current intergovernmental planning, budgeting and The Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister
implementation; Nkosazana Zuma as part of the DDM Monitoring and Oversight, undertook a
• A shared vision of development and desired future outcomes and Ministerial Visit to the eThekwini DDM Pilot on the 19th and the 23rd of
impacts to be realised incrementally over a 30 year period especially November 2020. Co-hosted by eThekwini Mayor Kaunda, led by the eThekwini
spatial and built environment transformation, bulk infrastructure MEC Champion Kwazi Mshengu and the DDM Political Champions Deputy
alignment towards spatial priorities and fundamental socio-economic Ministers Nocawe Mafu, John Jeffery and KZNCOGTA MEC Sipho Hlomuka, the
change with drastic improvement in wholistic people development and Two-Day Visit reflected on the progress made since the launch of the Pilot in 2019.
well-being;
The Visit also served as a Launchpad for the acceleration and completion of the
• An agreed set of impact-oriented strategies that outline the approach
One Plan, a joint planning process for all of Government and marked the first step
and priority actions required to realise the vision and desired future
of Metro based stakeholder engagements on the development of the One Plan.
outcomes and impacts; and
The Ministerial Visit included a variety of Stakeholder Engagements with city
• Identification of key role players across all three spheres of government
political and administrative leadership, local businesses, and key social and
and stakeholders relevant to each identified strategy, and an agreed set
economic development programmes in eThekwini. This also included engagement
of enablers and Commitments by each one of them to give effect to
on the process of real joint planning across the three spheres of government based
Implementation of the identified strategy in the immediate, short,
on a pre-assessment of the challenges, development potential and a discussion on
medium and long term.
the catalytic projects based on evidence collated from municipalities, the province
and strategic national departments, i.e. the profiles, IDPs, SDFs etc. The Visit
1.4 One Plan Formulation Process focused on the Re-imagining and Visioning of the Metro towards the development
of a Long-Term Plan, identifying low hanging fruits/quick wins for implementing
The formulation of the eThekwini One Plan has been a journey that started with
DDM, a focus on addressing women and youth participation in the Economy and a
the Presidential launch of the eThekwini DDM pilot in October 2019. This ran
discussion on the Economic Recovery Plan.
simultaneous with the eThekwini profiling exercise that was presented at the
launch and further refined afterwards. The Profile provides a status quo of socio- The three Site Visits on the Homeless and the Gender Based Violence (GBV)
economic development, service delivery progress, infrastructure, governance and Hotspots was a demonstration of the city innovations in dealing with the social
financial management situation. challenges in the midst of Covid-19, the urgent need to respond to the scourge of
Gender Based Violence in the top city crime hotspot. In seeking solutions to
The broader DDM implementation has run in parallel to the One Plan process and
address hunger and poverty through the creation of employment opportunities,
included the intergovernmental management of COVID-19 through local
the DDM is leveraged around the Metro Catalytic Projects. The Site Visit to the
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 5
Keystone Development was aimed at emphasising the need for Government to • A follow-up 2-day Intergovernmental Working Session focussing on
respond to the list of Intergovernmental Planning (IGP) and Inter-Governmental Vision Setting and Strategy Formulation inputs was held on 3-4th February
Relations challenges and blockages in implementing the Catalytic Projects as 2021 where further feedback from all three spheres of government on
flagged in the various government Forums including the DDM Platforms. the draft Diagnostic report was provided.
• The draft Vision and Strategy Formulation was presented and discussed
The Overall Reflections by the Minister on the Visit noted and acknowledged the
together with Implementation Commitment inputs at the third
strides made on the DDM implementation since the launch in 2019, but the clarion
Intergovernmental Working Session that was held on 3-4th March 2021.
call to fast-track visible programmes and interventions that will change the lives of
• The draft One Plan, once approved by the eThekwini Political Hub, will be
people in communities was made. Working together as all of government is the
engaged with stakeholders and communities as part of the IDP process
core of this model. The Minister and the Political Champions reaffirmed their
ensuring that the One Plan as a Long-Term Strategic Framework and the
commitment to mobilize the relevant support for the eThekwini Pilot. The
eThekwini IDP which is a five-year plan with the current review having an
proposal to have Quarterly Monitoring Sessions of the Pilot and flagging the
end of electoral term focus and enabling continuity into the next term of
progress of the DDM Pilots at the Government Makgotlas is a commitment to
office mutually reinforce each other.
ensuring that the eThekwini Metro DDM pilot is a success.
Following the Ministerial Visit, there was a series of Intergovernmental Technical
Working sessions (Design Thinking Workshops) in tandem with assessment and
integration of various existing studies and plans that informed the drafting of a
Diagnostic Report, the Vision Setting, Strategy Formulation and Implementation
Commitments adapted as per the One Plan stages outlined in the DDM Circular
and set of One Plan guidelines issued by the Director-General of CoGTA on 19
January 2021. The following working sessions were held:
• Each eThekwini Metro department held their own diagnostic sessions
that culminated in a City diagnostic workshop in early December 2020;
• This input informed the deliberations at the 2-day Intergovernmental
Diagnostic Working session held on 8-9th December 2020 with officials
from all three spheres of government which was opened by eThekwini
Mayor Kaunda with context and direction setting remarks;
• The draft diagnostic report was prepared. Feedback on the draft
Diagnostic was provided by the eThekwini DDM Political Hub. The One Plan formulation process was adapted into a fast-tracked approach based
on the above DDM One Plan Roadmap as contained in the One Plan Guidelines.
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 6
1.5 One Plan Outline 2. Diagnostic Summary
The following sections of this One Plan are arranged as per the One Plan stages,
namely:
The diagnostic stage of the One Plan entailed a critical analysis of the service
• Diagnostic Findings and Implications delivery, development and governance situation in eThekwini in relation to each
• Vision Setting - eThekwini Vision 2050 DDM Focal Area, and an appreciation of the prevailing Context and Trends that
• Strategy Formulation shape the eThekwini metropolitan space and economy.
• Implementation Commitments
The eThekwini Diagnostic Report can be referred to for the detailed outline of the
• Conclusion – One Plan as IG and Social Compact
key diagnostic issues. In this section a summary and synthesis of the diagnostic is
The One Plan content, centred on eThekwini Vision 2050, follows the DDM Theory presented.
of Change and logical framework and is structured in relation to the six DDM
Transformation Focal Areas or Goals, as shown in the diagram below. 2.1 SWOT Analysis
eThekwini has a locational advantage with Port infrastructure, great climate and
beaches for tourism and leisure, and strong heritage and culture. It is endowed
Current DDM Goal 4 DDM Goal 1 Current
Desired Future Desired Future
Situation Infrastructure People Situation with the ocean and a natural environment and resources that have to be better
Outcomes & Outcomes &
Strategies
Indicators Indicators
Strategies valued. It has many talented people but not always able to retain them due to
Commitments
& Enablers
Commitments
& Enablers
limited opportunities in the local economy. Located within the Province of Kwa-
eThekwini Vision 2050 Zulu-Natal, it is a strategic space within the national economy with potential for
A Leading Smart Port
Current
Situation
DDM Goal 5
Services
Desired Future
City Region that is Desired Future
DDM Goal 2
Economy
Current
Situation
growth of key economic sectors. eThekwini makes up 34,7% of KZN and 6,9% of
Just, Safe, Resilient,
Strategies
Outcomes & Socially Cohesive and Outcomes &
SA population, accounting for 65% of provincial GDP and 51% of employment.
Strategies
Indicators Culturally Expressive Indicators
eThekwini makes up 8,7% of the national economy.
Commitments Commitments
& Enablers & Enablers
Current DDM Goal 6 DDM Goal 3 Current
Desired Future Desired Future
Situation Governance Space & Env Situation
Outcomes & Outcomes &
Strategies Strategies
Indicators Indicators
Commitments Commitments
& Enablers & Enablers
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 7eThekwini’s many endowments and great potential has to be harnessed better Big Shifts Needed
through a more coordinated approach between all three spheres of government • Massify & optimise industrial structure
and through greater performance accountability in terms of the powers and • Marshal all society & structure partnerships
functions of all three spheres of government as they relate to having an impact • Link communities to skills revolution
within the area on service delivery, development and sustainability. There are a (especially youth and women)
number of structural and systemic challenges and threats that have to be • Link economic activities regionally
addressed. Some of the key issues emanating from the DDM processes including • Interlink district/metro, provincial and national economies
the Ministerial engagements highlight the following in respect of eThekwini: • Link to regional (AcFTA) and global markets
Honorable Minister for CoGTA, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma -
Presentation at KZN Premier’s Coordinating Forum (PCF) (11 September 2020)
Strengths Challenges
Endowments Dual Economy
Port Structural and
Systemic Issues
2.2 Structural and Systemic Challenges
Climate, Ocean
The structural economic constraints and barriers together with triple challenges of
Tourism Base Inclusive Economic
poverty, inequality and unemployment facing the country manifest in eThekwini
Growth
Manufacturing Base in particular ways and have to be addressed within the framework of the analytics
Growth Management and objectives of the National Development Plan (NDP). The NDP Vision is to
Real Estate
eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. The diagnostic undertaken by
the National Planning Commission (NPC) in preparing the NDP back in 2011
remains relevant in general:
Bridge Dual Economy Global Conditions &
(urban/rural; 1. Too few people work
Competition
formal/informal) 2. The quality of school education for black people is poor
3. Infrastructure is poorly located, inadequate and under-maintained
Unlock Endowments 4. Spatial divides hobble inclusive development
Governance &
Massify Upskilling Management Failure 5. The economy is unsustainably resource intensive
Micro and Informal 6. The public health system cannot meet demand or sustain quality
economy support 7. Public services are uneven and often of poor quality
8. Corruption levels are high
Opportunities Threats 9. South Africa remains a divided society.
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 8Global
Covid-19 recession
4IR
Brexit and Trade wars
Strengthening and modernization of, and broad
participation in, the growth of the local economy, in
2.3 Trend Analysis
order secure inclusive, resilient and innovative
context Conflict in the middle east
Africa CFTA growth and employment outcomes, in a The key big trends that will impact on eThekwini in a way that could either further
Health of trading partners sustainable manner.
Apartheid legacy and dual economy
exacerbate structural and systemic problems or serve to address them are
National National growth picture is negative summarised in the table below.
context Electricity constraints
Skills deficit A compact, productive and livable
Unsustainable growth in social spend Impact targets city that connects citizens with
Structural Dysfunctional space economy economic opportunities
Unemployment, Underperforming public health care
The implication of these trends for eThekwini will be for government to get far
Poor education outcomes
poverty and
Lagging in innovation and technology Increased industrialisation, better organised in getting a strategic handle over the future and preparing for it
inequality Impact targets localisation and investment
The inequality effect
Technological change and 4IR attraction in targeted industries in a focused way. There are two scenarios that could play out if the trends are
Climate risk and water supply
Government inefficiency (incl. SOEs) either resisted or embraced as shown in this diagram:
Low business confidence Government that is customer
Impact targets centric, enabling, efficient and
Low buying power – but more food secure integrated
High social spend but low economic gain
Key advantage sectors are underperforming
Labour absorbing sectors are not growing Impact targets An inclusive and shared economy
Local Township economies are under-capitalized, lacks security
context Entrepreneurship is underperforming
Innovation is lagging and govt is not enabling Growth of the tourism and cultural
Impact targets Trends Scenarios Results
Slow progress reversing apartheid legacy & creative industries
Social capital is not growing – dysfunctional TVET
Economy has stalled hence no jobs COVID-19 Scenario 1 Structural Unemployment, Poverty,
Impact Inequality & Systemic Challenges Worsen
Slow Change Ineffective and Unsustainable Economic Model
Economy Diagnostic, eThekwini Economic Development Unit, 2021 Government Resists Trends Undervalued Natural Ecosystems
SMART Cities and change, does not innovate, Unequal Spatial Planning
and SMART does not make tough choices, Strained Communities
and does not prioritise and Constrained Municipality
Societies Ineffective Governance and Administration
sequence implementation.
The structural and systemic poverty, unemployment and inequality runs deep in Continues to operate in silos Skills Gap and Mismatch
Social Disruption, Unrest, Crime
eThekwini. Over half of the population is living below the upper bound poverty Urbanisation
without impact-oriented
Unsafe and Insecure Communities
action.
and social ills and discontentment is raising. If the situation continues on this
trajectory then there is a very bleak future for the young people of eThekwini who Climate Scenario 2
Structural Unemployment, Poverty,
Inequality & Systemic Challenges Overcome
make up 63% of the current population. It will be even bleaker for future Change Fast Change Bridge Dual Economy – Integrated, Competitive,
Government Embraces Trends, Inclusive, Resilient and Innovative economy
generations to come. Improves Policies, Adopts
Inequality Innovative socio-economic and Coordinated and Sustainable Infrastructure
service delivery models, Investment – Growth Management
StructuralCurrent Situation in respect of poverty,
The situation is made worse by COVID-19. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic Formulates Integrated Long- Empowered
inequality
Spatially
communities
and unemployment
transformed
and citizenry
worsens.
and mismatch
Increased
environmentally
Government Term Impact Oriented vulnerability of people. Skills widens
is still not fully understood or known. The duration of the impact is also not known Strategies and Improves healthy city, healthy communities
Implementation Capability Smart, Just, Resilient and Safe City
and the outcome in relation to life returning to “normal” is uncertain. At the same
time it is an opportunity for resetting and doing things differently in respect of
addressing inequality and building community level resilience. The society that will
emerge out of COVID can be very different. It is also likely to be increasingly driven
by technology and digital transformation which is taking place at an accelerated
pace. Driving and creating a conducive environment for public and private sector
innovation is going to be critical for survival and to build long-term resilience.
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 9Trend Description 2.4 Diagnostic Summary - Six Transformations
There is a mutually reinforcing and interdependent relationship between the six
Post COVID-19 The impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on the way societies and economies may change is DDM transformation focal areas. The key issues emerging under each area is
world uncertain but there is real risk of long-term consequences such as increase in inequalities and social
deprivation. There may be long-lasting changes in the nature of work and consumer behaviours summarised below. One of the key objectives of the One Plan is to support an
facilitated by technology – on-line work and shopping, etc. There may also be likely long-term impacts integrated systems approach to making sense of these issues and undertaking
on improving food value chains, environmental and public health, and management of natural
resources. Change in values of people and society may shift from pursuit of happiness through material strategy and decision-making accordingly.
goods towards reconnecting with nature, pursuing authentic and soulful experiences, and building
better relations with people and within communities. eThekwini Economic Recovery plan and actions
need to be effective. DDM Diagnostic Area Key Issues
Smart Cities There are big shifts globally towards Smart Cities and Smart Societies enabled by technology and
People Development • Extremely high levels of poverty – Over half the city residents
and Smart innovations of the 4th Industrial Revolution. These include IoT (Internet of Things), Big Data, AI (Artificial
Societies Intelligence), Robotics and Shared Economy. Countries such as Japan are leading transitions to what is (2,1 million people) live below the upper bound poverty line
referred to as Society 5.0 which is aimed at using these innovations and transcending the Information • Social challenges are much larger than in the other metros
age for resolving social challenges and creating better Human life. Smart Cities can be more than
technology driven cities. They ought to be about how technology can enable smart systems, • Low skills levels and poor education outcomes
infrastructure, governance and service delivery that addresses needs of people and society in inclusive • Low HDI and high level of vulnerability
and affordable ways.
Urbanisation By 2030 almost three quarter of the country’s population (71.3%) will be living in urban areas. This is
• This has major implications for societal well-being and for
according to the Integrated Urban Development Framework (IUDF) which is government’s policy economic growth and development
position to guide the future growth and management of urban areas premised on giving effect to the • Support upliftment of people and communities as part of
global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the NDP. The IUDF’s overall envisaged outcome is
spatial transformation where urban growth is steered towards model of compact, connected and realising socio-economic and spatial justice
coordinated cities and towns and development of inclusive, resilient and liveable settlements. • Focus on skills development for the competitive mainstream
Climate The impact of climate change is seeing many shifts taking place in respect of reducing carbon
Change footprint of cities and settlements, better and smarter utilisation of resources and smarter food
economy as well as for informal, social and solidarity
production. According to the international Energy Agency’s global energy trends report forecasting economy
energy trends to 2040, renewables such as wind, solar, and hydropower will surpass coal as the world’s • Need to unlock the heritage, culture and creative talents of
dominant source of electricity by 2030. Africa currently has about 40% of the world’s potential for solar
energy. South Africa’s Integrated Resource Plan supports a diverse energy mix to ensure the security of People in an inclusive way and build social cohesion
electricity supply. Economic Positioning • The Durban Ports are a critical endowment not only for
Inequality Rising inequality is a growing global trend and challenge. According to the United Nations (UN) World
Social Report 2020, inequality is growing for more than 70% of the global population but the rise is far
eThekwini but for KZN and Southern Africa. It occupies a
from inevitable and can be tackled. The consequence of inequality is that it slows down economic strategic role in the world space economy.
growth as people remain trapped in poverty across several generations. In South Africa there is
• There is a big need to turn the comparative advantages that
continued racialised inequality manifesting as well in spatially divided cities and spaces.
Government The DDM is aligned with leading research and thinking on Government Trends in serving citizens better eThekwini has into a competitive advantage with the Ports
by breaking down “Silos”, providing seamless systems and improving citizen experience. According to playing a critical role.
the Deloitte Centre for Government Insights, due to the unprecedented changes that are shaping the
world, as described by the trends above, governments have to become more integrated, intuitive and • Currently the eThekwini economy is very uncompetitive
innovative to address social challenges and provide more personalised and engaging citizen • Cost to export through Durban is 40% higher than OECD
experience.
average
• Low FDI attraction compared to JHB and CT
• The People Development issues, skills mismatch and
inequality is a major constraint to economic growth
• Economic master sector plans need to be localised and focus
on creating inclusive value chains empowering SMMEs,
township, rural enterprises
• Harness potential of Cultural & Creative Industries
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 10Spatial Restructuring & • Urbanisation pressures impacting on natural resource base
2.5 Projections
Environmental Sustainability • Growing number of informal settlements
• Slow spatial transformation
• Inadequate public transportation system The One Plan enables government to have a strategic handle on future growth
• Unresolved Trust land impacting on rural development
• Need an integrated urban-rural development approach
dynamics. Understanding and planning for population and household growth
• Need to improve adherence to spatial transformation, and spatial spread is a critical anchor component for informing long-term
compact city and integrated development objectives Infrastructure investment and service provisioning. This enables proactive
Infrastructure Engineering • Ageing infrastructure and high backlog in infrastructure
action which strengthens investor confidence in suitable place-making.
investment
• Between now and 2050 cater for almost 1 million new
households (current backlog plus future growth) The following projections undertaken as part of social services planning work
• Scarce water sources
that the CSIR is undertaking for eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality will
• Need for better and more secure energy
• Need coordinated infrastructure investment & Innovation to inform the definition of a transformed core Spatial Network pattern and
follow spatial restructuring related spatial restructuring and infrastructure investment strategies.
Service Provisioning • Insufficient allocation of budget for operations
• Lack of quality and affordable housing and basic services for
the poor Distribution (2011 and
• Demand for services outstripping supply
• Poor and inconsistent government service delivery levels
2021)
• Need innovative service delivery models Regions Population (2011) Population (2021) Population Growth
2 002 955 2 236 268 11.6%
Central
Governance • Lack of accountability and transparency with respect to use Prime Corridor
Rural
583 775
58 203
674 682
97 570
15.6%
67.6%
of public resources Sub-Urban 653 108 694 736 6.4%
Urban 707 869 769 281 8.7%
• Lack of confidence by investors to invest on larger scale in Inner-West 546 368 602 345 10.2%
Prime Corridor 72 534 76 205 5.1%
potential economic growth sectors and opportunities Rural 10 160 19 132 88.3%
Sub-Urban 378 081 401 916 6.3%
• Inadequate customer relations management Urban 85 594 105 092 22.8%
North 153 081 197 741 29.2%
• Disempowered communities and civil society structures Prime Corridor 60 043 74 114 23.4%
Rural 9 723 11 671 20.0%
• Need to Unify the city and build common vision with capable Sub-Urban 40 120 44 316 10.5%
Urban 43 194 67 640 56.6%
and professional administration Outer-West 352 164 448 545 27.4%
Prime Corridor 24 398 30 390 24.6%
Rural 142 464 189 594 33.1%
Sub-Urban 86 240 110 583 28.2%
Urban 99 062 117 977 19.1%
South 422 163 542 762 28.6%
Prime Corridor 34 769 47 338 36.2%
Rural 82 413 113 723 38.0%
Sub-Urban 237 295 298 685 25.9%
Urban 67 687 83 016 22.6%
Grand Total 3 476 731 4 027 660 15.8%
Source: CSIR, 2021
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 11Based on current trends the population projection and spread is shown in the table
below. This will be used to inform a spatial transformation intervention that may
2030 transformation
change the future spread based on the transformation scenarios as well on a scenario
vacant land availability assessment to assess accommodating future growth with Population 2021 - 2030 2021 - 2030
Region (2030) Additional Pop Intervention
appropriate densification and compactness. Central 2 516 390 280 122 280 122
Prime Corridor 759 179 84 497 42 018
Rural 109 792 12 222 56 024
Sub-Urban 781 712 86 976 84 037
eThekwini Population Population Population Urban 865 707 96 427 98 043
Inner-West 677 822 75 477 75 477
Regions (2011) (2021) (2030) Population (2050) Prime Corridor 85 721 9 515 11 322
Rural 21 528 2 396 15 095
Central 2 002 955 2 236 268 2 516 390 2 724 365 Sub-Urban
Urban
452 312
118 261
50 396
13 169
22 643
26 417
Prime Corridor 583 775 674 682 759 179 821 881 North
Prime Corridor
222 529
83 400
24 788
9 286
24 788
3 718
Rural 13 133 1 462 4 958
Rural 58 203 97 570 109 792 118 862 Sub-Urban 49 864 5 548 7 436
Urban 76 133 8 492 8 676
Sub-Urban 653 108 694 736 781 712 846 324 Outer-West 504 707 56 163 56 163
Prime Corridor 34 195 3 805 8 424
Urban 707 869 769 281 865 707 937 298 Rural 213 336 23 743 11 233
Sub-Urban 124 420 13 837 16 849
Inner-West 546 368 602 345 677 822 733 798 Urban
South
132 755
610 746
14 778
67 984
19 657
67 984
Prime Corridor 72 534 76 205 85 721 92 819 Prime Corridor
Rural
53 238
127 968
5 900
14 244
10 198
13 597
Sub-Urban 336 103 37 418 20 395
Rural 10 160 19 132 21 528 23 307 1
Urban 93 438 10 422 23 795
Total 4 532 194 504 534 504 534
Sub-Urban 378 081 401 916 452 312 489 666
Urban 85 594 105 092 118 261 128 006
2050 transformation
North 153 081 197 741 222 529 240 895
Prime Corridor 60 043 74 114 83 400 90 301
scenario
Rural 9 723 11 671 13 133 14 218 Region
2021 - 2050 2021 - 2050
Population 2050 Additional Pop Intervention
Central 2 724 365 488 097 488 097
Sub-Urban 40 120 44 316 49 864 53 974 Prime Corridor 821 881 147 199 73 214
Rural 118 862 21 293 97 619
Urban 43 194 67 640 76 133 82 403 Sub-Urban 846 324 151 588 146 429
Urban 937 298 168 017 170 834
Outer-West 352 164 448 545 504 707 546 426 Inner-West 733 798 131 453 131 453
Prime Corridor 92 819 16 614 19 718
Prime Corridor 24 398 30 390 34 195 37 019 Rural 23 307 4 175 26 291
Sub-Urban 489 666 87 750 39 436
Rural 142 464 189 594 213 336 230 956 Urban
North
128 006
240 895
22 914
43 154
46 009
43 154
Sub-Urban 86 240 110 583 124 420 134 690 Prime Corridor
Rural
90 301
14 218
16 187
2 547
6 473
8 631
Sub-Urban 53 974 9 658 12 946
Urban 99 062 117 977 132 755 143 760 Urban 82 403 14 762 15 104
Outer-West 546 426 97 882 97 882
South 422 163 542 762 610 746 661 138 Prime Corridor 37 019 6 630 14 682
Rural 230 956 41 362 19 576
Prime Corridor 34 769 47 338 53 238 57 613 Sub-Urban 134 690 24 107 29 364
Urban 143 760 25 783 34 259
Rural 82 413 113 723 127 968 138 539 South
Prime Corridor
661 138
57 613
118 376
10 275
118 376
17 756
Sub-Urban 237 295 298 685 336 103 363 866 21
Rural
Sub-Urban
138 539
363 866
24 816
65 181
23 675
35 513
Urban 101 119 18 104 41 432
Urban 67 687 83 016 93 438 101 119 Total 4 906 622 878 962 878 962
Grand Total 3 476 731 4 027 660 4 532 194 4 906 622 Source:
Source:CSIR,
CSIR,2021
2021
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 122.6 The Big Diagnostic Issues Informing the One Plan ❑ Accelerate Social Interventions and People Upliftment
The trend analysis together with the DDM Focal Area analysis summarised above o The social challenges in eThekwini are proportionately larger than in
informs the diagnostic summary. The big issues emerging from the eThekwini the other four large metros
diagnostic indicate the need to: o Extremely high levels of poverty, low education, skills and income
levels. Low HDI and high youth and township unemployment.
❑ Reimagine eThekwini o Major social issues: Poor education outcomes and low skills, high
o Based on the diagnostic issues and trends, the current development number of child-headed households, communicable diseases, GBV,
trajectory in eThekwini has to change drastically so that people are alcoholism, teenage pregnancy
not left behind. This implies that bold and new interventions at o Low Human Development and inequality is a major constraint to
growing and transforming the economy will be required. economic growth of the metro
o A vision based approach is needed of what eThekwini can be as a o Functional work place skills development is a critical employment
dynamic economic space for the country and a spatially success factor for people
transformed inclusive place with sustainable growth, development o Support social and solidarity economy
and smart living prospects for its residents
o This has to be underpinned by a new development philosophy and ❑ Increase Investment Attraction
approach centred on addressing the dual economy, advancing well- o FDI lower than Johannesburg and Cape Town despite certain
being of the people and supporting greater self-reliance of residents advantages
and communities o Durban port is 40% more expensive than OECD average
o Converting comparative advantages in transport, freight and logistics o Leverage Export Hub potential – link to regional and national
into a well-defined competitive advantage centred on a Smart Port manufacturing, freight and logistics strategy
City as the key export hub of the country incorporating critical o Low Human Development and skills levels is a big factor in ability to
international lessons and learnings attract investment
o Identify and grow Localisation opportunities o Need a competitive platform – Reliable and cost competitive Energy
o Support SMMEs in the manufacturing sector provision, coordinated infrastructure, compact and well-governed
o This must be built as an Intergovernmental Vision and supported space
accordingly with clear impact oriented actions and performances
o Building key sectors such as Tourism and the Cultural and Creative ❑ Unlock Land and Rural Development
Industries (Film, Fashion, Food, Music, Arts and Entertainment) as o Sprawling and unmanaged costly servicing and land development on
critical job creation drivers Trust land
o A digitally enabled City and digitally empowered citizens o Ownership issues and need to unlock urban planning, municipal
servicing and economic development
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 13o A vision for rural development within integrated metropolitan implementing electoral mandate but insulated from party politics
context and refrains from being political actors themselves (National
o Support agriculture and agro-processing Implementation Framework towards Professionalisation of the
Public Service, published for comment, 22 December 2020)
❑ Undertake Infrastructure Investment in strategic and sustainable way
o Intergovernmental coordinated infrastructure investment guided by
spatial transformation objectives, desired spatial form, densification
and priority development areas.
3. eThekwini Vision 2050
o Intergovernmental Coordinated infrastructure investment and urban
growth management with regard to catalytic projects and integrated 3.1 Vision Setting
human settlements – aim at building functional and sustainable The eThekwini Vision 2050 is based on the diagnostic findings discussed in the
places section above and is informed by the vision of the country as set out in the National
o Accelerate Spatial Transformation, Environmental Resilience, and Development Plan (NDP) and other key policies and plans across government.
implementation of critical plans “Shape Durban”, SDF and BEPPS
o City needs to reposition itself in providing energy to customers – find National The NDP aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. It aims to
better ways of providing electricity Development increase employment, income levels and standards of living through 10 Critical
Plan (NDP) Actions:
❑ Improve Governance and Administration across all 3 spheres 1. A social compact to reduce poverty and inequality, and raise employment
and investment.
o Improve accountability and transparency with respect to use of
2. A strategy to address poverty and its impacts by broadening access to
public resources employment, strengthening the social wage, improving public transport and
o Improve customer relations management - utilise technology better raising rural incomes.
3. Steps by the state to professionalise the public service, strengthen
to improve customer experience accountability, improve coordination and prosecute corruption.
o Unify the city and build common vision with capable and professional 4. Boost private investment in labour-intensive areas, competitiveness and
exports, with adjustments to lower the risk of hiring younger workers.
administration 5. An education accountability chain, with lines of responsibility from state to
o Advance Intergovernmental joint planning, budgeting and classroom.
6. Phase in national health insurance, with a focus on upgrading public health
implementation facilities, producing more health professionals and reducing the relative cost of
o Intergovernmental compact outlining how provision of services will private health care.
7. Public infrastructure investment at 10 percent of gross domestic product
be undertaken and improved
(GDP), financed through tariffs, public-private partnerships, taxes and loans
o Improve Social Compacting and impact accountability and focused on transport, energy and water.
o Professionalise public service and city administration - in line with 8. Interventions to ensure environmental sustainability and resilience to future
shocks.
latest recommendations from Department of Public Service and
Administration for having administration that is committed to
eThekwini Draft One Plan – Approved by eThekwini Political Hub on 10 April 2021 for consultation 149. New spatial norms and standards – densifying cities, improving transport, 7. Create balance between development and conservation –
locating jobs where people live, upgrading informal settlements and fixing sustainability
housing market gaps. 8. Develop an inclusive rural economy – agrarian reform
10. Reduce crime by strengthening criminal justice and improving community 9. Strengthen functional rural-urban linkages
environments. 10. Protect high value agricultural land
11. Protect natural water resources
Visioning element - Our future - make it work 12. Revitalise small towns – urban renewal
South Africa belongs to all its peoples. We, the people, belong to one another. 13. Promote urban compaction
We live the rainbow. Our homes, neighbourhoods, villages, towns, and cities are 14. Protect core bio-diversity assets
safe and filled with laughter. Through our institutions, we order our lives. The 15. Plan for a growing urban population
faces of our children tell of the future we have crafted. 16. Promote clustering of public/social facilities
Draft National The NSDF vision - All our People Living in Shared and Transformed Places in an Medium Term Government has seven priorities for this electoral term - MTSF (2019 – 2024):
Spatial Integrated, Sustainable and Competitive National Space Economy. Strategic 1. Building a capable, ethical and developmental state
Development Framework 2. Economic transformation and job creation
Framework Mission - Making our Common Desired Spatial Future Together Through Better (MTSF) 3. Education, skills and health
(NSDF) Planning, Investment, Delivery and Monitoring. 4. Consolidating the social wage through reliable and quality basic
services
The NSDF national spatial vision projection is of South Africa with an estimated 5. Spatial integration, human settlements and local government
population of 75 million by 2050 and a shift of settlement towards the eastern 6. Social cohesion and safe communities
part of the country especially along the eastern coastline. This is driven by 7. A better Africa and world
climate change factors as well as export focus on high valued and hand made Integrated IUDF Vision - Liveable, safe, resource- efficient cities and towns that are socially
products towards rest of continent and Asia. Urban integrated, economically inclusive and globally competitive, where residents
Provincial PGDS Vision - By 2035 KwaZulu-Natal will be a prosperous Province with a Development actively participate in urban life.
Growth & healthy, secure and skilled population, living in dignity and harmony, acting as a Framework
Development gateway to Africa and the World. (IUDF) The IUDF’s overall envisaged outcome is spatial transformation where urban
Strategy growth is steered towards model of compact, connected and coordinated cities
(PGDS)/PSDF Strategic Objectives relate to : and towns and development of inclusive, resilient and liveable settlements.
1. Inclusive economic growth eThekwini IDP By 2030 eThekwini will enjoy the reputation of being Africa’s most caring and
2. Human resource development and Vision liveable city, where all citizens live in harmony
3. Human and community development 2030
4. Strategic infrastructure Long Term Priorities:
5. Environmental sustainability Creating a safe city
6. Governance and policy Enduring a more environmentally sustainable city
7. Spatial equity Promoting an accessible city
Creating a prosperous city where all enjoy sustainable livelihoods
PSDF Spatial Vision Directives: Fostering a caring and empowering city
1. Position KZN to integrate and benefit from globalisation Celebrating cultural diversity
2. Strengthen national and regional spatial integration and
competitiveness
3. Develop a functional and efficient spatial structure
4. Focus development in strategic areas with high growth potential –
spatial targeting
5. Improve settlement planning towards sustainable communities
6. Develop spatial structure that bolsters climate change resilience
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