Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing

Page created by Thelma Stone
 
CONTINUE READING
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
VOLUME 17 – NO 10 / OCTOBER 2019

Glory Buys Majority Stake                                                                         WW1 Coin
                                                                                                  Heads Winners
in Virtual ATM Company                                                                            at IACA Awards
                                                                                                  A new coin issued to mark the
                                                                                                  100th anniversary of the end of
                                                                                                  the 1st World War has won top
                                                                                                  awards at the IACA (International
                                                                                                  Association of Currency Affairs)
                                                                                                  Excellence in Currency Awards for
                                                                                                  Coins, which were announced at
                                                                                                  the Coin Conference in Rome earlier
                                                                                                  this month.

Berlin-based Cash Payment Solutions,            The completion of this transaction is subject
which operates under the brands                 to clearance from the relevant regulatory
Barzahlen in Germany and Austria                authorities in accordance with applicable
and Viacash in Switzerland, is selling          laws and regulations.
53% of its shares to Japanese cash              According to Glory, it has been investing
management specialist Glory.                    actively in a business model to realise
Cash Payment Solutions is a bank-               the ‘new management system of cash
independent cash settlement platform            circulation’ in line with our ‘Long-term
that turns retailers into ‘virtual ATMs’ (see   Vision 2028’.
CN October 2017). It enables users to                                                             Issued by the Reserve Bank of New
                                                Behind this is its view that one of the factors
deposit and withdraw cash and make cash                                                           Zealand, the Armistice Day coin won
                                                for the global trend towards cashless, or
payments for e-commerce and utility bills at                                                      both the ‘Best New Commemorative
                                                less-cash, payments has been the high
nearby supermarkets, drugstores and other                                                         or Test Circulating Coin Issued at Face
                                                costs of handling cash, even though
retail outlets by just showing a barcode,                                                         Value’ and ‘Best New Circulating Coin-
                                                cash still remains an important means
without the need to visit an ATM or a shop                                                        related Public Education Campaign,
                                                of payment. Hence it is intensifying the
of the service provider. CPS has more                                                             Website, or App’ categories at
                                                provision of solutions for industries to make
than 16,000 partners offering the service,                                                        the event.
                                                their operations more efficient, stating:
mainly retailers.                               ‘we believe that, by realising efficient cash     The coin commemorates the history,
The retailers enjoy benefits such as            circulation across society beyond the             service, and sacrifice made by service
reducing cash collection costs, attracting      border between bank branches and retail           personnel and their families to bring
more shoppers, receiving commissions,           shops, we can make the cost of cash               peace to New Zealand and the world.
etc. The associated banks can provide           handling even lower.’                             Judges highlighted the coin’s striking
cash deposit and withdrawal services                                                              use of colour and praised its strong
                                                CPS's business model will contribute to
more cost effectively than via ATMs or                                                            educational role in an Armistice Day
                                                that realisation.
bank branches. E-commerce providers                                                               public awareness campaign, which
                                                The same rationale was behind a $6 million        invited people to ‘SPEND IT. KEEP IT.
can attract consumers who prefer
                                                round of funding for Singapore-based              REMEMBER’. It was produced by the
cash settlement.
                                                SoCash, which Glory led in July. It provides      Royal Canadian Mint.
CPS was founded in 2011. Its management         s similar service to CPS, and is now being
will continue to manage the company,                                                              Continued on page 11 >
                                                rolled out to neighbouring Indonesia,
focusing on expanding the business and          Malaysia and Hong Kong.
network in Europe.

www.currency-news.com
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
Coins v Banknotes, or Coins and Banknotes?
  It sometimes appears that coins and          There are significant differences – the          denomination coins are not needed was
  banknotes are troubled siblings, with        products themselves, the issuers (in some        discussed, particularly by the ECB and the
  all the friction that implies. Conflict is   countries the central bank produces              US, both of which face significant negative
  normally sparked around the coin-note        banknotes and coins whereas in others            seigniorage on these coins. In the Euro
  boundary and, despite sharing so many        the treasury is responsible for the latter),     area research shows public demand in
  of the same challenges, sometimes they       and the seigniorage system that generates        favour of this, but ultimately such decisions
  appear to operate in parallel but almost     value for the central bank and/or state (not     have big implications for mints and are
  entirely separate universes.                 least because coins last around 20-25            politically sensitive.
                                               years and are not recirculated to any great      Similar to ‘payment’ and ‘market’ notes

     Inside this Issue
                                               extent). The cost, value, lifecycle, handling    for banknotes, the concept of transaction
                                               systems and recirculation models are also        and settlement coins was introduced by
                                               very different.                                  Jon Cameron, latterly Associate Director
      1 Glory Buys Majority Stake              The Coin Conference has just taken place         of the US Mint, with the differentiator ‘can
         in Virtual ATM Company                in Rome and, while highlighting these            you buy a cup of coffee with two coins?’
      1 WW1 Coin Heads Winners                 differences, it also highlighted what coins      The National Bank of Moldova explained
         at IACA Awards                        and banknotes have in common. This               the D-Metric analysis they had done when
                                               started with the results of a number of          planning their new series, the National
      2 Coins v Banknotes,                     research projects into public attitudes to       Bank of Kyrgyzstan explained why their
         or Coins and Banknotes?               coins. As with banknotes, coins represent        new series included a 3 som coin and
                                               something more to the public than just           the Bankgo Sentral ng Pilipina why they
      3 Bank of England Unveils                being a payment token.                           had changed seven coins for six in their
         New £20 Banknote                      Beyond that, both coins and banknote             new series, dropping the 10 sentimo.
      3 Rising Costs of                        face some shared challenges. Declining           Science and public research lay behind
                                                                                                these changes.
         Currency in Nigeria                   usage driven by new alternative payments
                                               and changing public behaviour, currency          There were some common themes
      3 Successful Conclusion to               that ‘disappears’ and does not circulate         when presenters spoke about increasing
         Kenya’s New Currency                  (albeit for different reasons) and how to        recirculation. The initiatives included
                                               get currency to recirculate efficiently,         mechanisms for commercial organisations
      4 News in Brief                          forecasting but with poor data and               to work directly together to move surpluses
      5 Banknote Survival                      changing payment landscapes. Despite             to match deficits, new central bank hubs to
         Analysis                              this, both are investing in their products and   facilitate coin issue and deposits organised
                                               cash cycles.                                     on more commercial lines and commercial
      6 People in the News                     Perhaps there is something to learn from         and government measures to make coin
                                                                                                machines accessible for the public to
      7 More than a Printer, a                 each other?
                                                                                                deposit coins. Spain, for example, had
         Partner for the Future                As with banknotes, the volume of coins in
                                                                                                run a very successful trial in Madrid with a
                                               circulation continues to rise at an apparently
      8 Historic Highs for                     healthy rate. However, the Dutch National
                                                                                                public coin deposit machine.
         Australian Banknotes                  Bank (DNB) demonstrated the difference           The environment – shared goals
      9 When Micro is Nano                     between the number of coins in circulation       and challenges
                                               and issue rates with the number of coins         Notes and coins also share an imperative to
     10 Nanotech Launches                      issued in the Netherlands in 2019 – down         ensure that their products and processes
         KolourDepth™                          to 45 million compared with 104 million in       are as environmentally-friendly as possible,
                                               2016. India, Mexico, Spain and the US also       and one of the sessions focused on
     11 FNMT: Investment Leads                 reported on a significant build-up of coin       this topic. With the ‘green agenda’ ever
         to Flesure                            stocks due to declining usage.                   more important – be this related to raw
     11 HSP Asia – All Eyes on                 Forecasting coins was reckoned to be             materials, energy consumption and
                                                                                                emissions, or reducing pollution – both
         Yokohama!                             harder than for banknotes primarily due
                                               to poor data and the impact of structural        sides of the industry share the same goals
     12 Chatboxes Add a                        changes and fast moving innovation               and challenges.
         New Dimension to WBS                  in payments. Mexico has put in place             Lessons to learn? The power of research
                                               measures to collect data from commercial         along with the application of science, the
     12 MEA Cash Cycle (ICCOS)                                                                  importance of data and a willingness to
                                               banks in response to their experience with
         Seminar                               over-stocking. ‘Passive’ coins (or even          experiment and change in all areas.
     12 Banknote Horizons 2020                 ‘sleepy’ coins, as they are referred to in       The Coin Conference happens every
                                               Germany), as with store of value notes,          two years and took place in Rome 15-16
     13 Orell Füssli Celebrates                clearly create major challenges.                 October. A record number of countries,
         500 Years
                                               Appropriate structures for                       45, and organisations, 103, attended. A
     14 Note and Coin news                     efficient usage                                  full review of the event is enclosed in the
                                               The importance of having in place                special supplement this month. The next
     15 The Asia Cash Cycle                    appropriate denominational structures to         Coin Conference will be in 2021 and the
         Seminar 2019                          allow efficient coin usage was discussed.        Mint Director Conference, where some of
                                                                                                the issues will be explored in further depth,
     15 Cash & Payment News                    The DNB’s research suggests that 60%
                                                                                                is 26-29 April 2020 in Cape Town.
                                               of coins are only used once. Little wonder
     16 Counterfeiters Defeated                that rounding up prices so that the lowest
         by Technology

2 CURRENCY NEWS | COMMENT
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
Bank of England Unveils                                                                       Successful
New £20 Banknote                                                                              Conclusion
The Bank of England has revealed the           The artist JMW Turner replaces the             to Kenya’s
                                                                                              New
new polymer £20 banknote design,               economist Adam Smith. In addition to a
which will go into circulation on 20           self-portrait of Turner, the design includes

                                                                                              Currency
February 2020. It will co-circulate            the image of The Fighting Temeraire,
with the paper £20 during a transition         voted Britain’s greatest painting in a BBC
period. The £20 represents 53% of              poll in 2005. The painting, according to
the number of notes in circulation,            the Bank, ‘exemplifies Turner’s innovative
2.1 billion notes. As a result, the            use of light, shade, colour and tone’ and      The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has
change-over period is likely to be             the note includes Turner’s quote ‘light is     won a court case on the design of its
considerably longer than that of the           therefore colour’.                             new banknotes, after the design was
previous denominations.                        The security features on the note have         accused of violating the constitution
                                               been upgraded compared with the £5             (which states that notes and coins
                                               and £10. The two main differences are a        cannot carry images of past presidents).
                                               second window with a blind emboss and          The controversy stemmed from an image
                                               a new two colour hologram in the main          of a statue of Jomo Kenyatta, the first
                                               window. The hologram is blue and gold          president of Kenya, in front of the Kenyatta
                                               on the front and silver on the back. The       International Convention Centre (KICC),
                                               £20 is the most counterfeited note with        which some (notably the activist Okiya
                                               426,000 counterfeits in 2018, 90% of           Omtatah, who has conducted a long-
                                               the total.                                     running campaign of ‘lawfare’ against the
                                               The notes are printed at the Bank of           new notes) argued constituted a ‘portrait’.
                                               England’s site by De La Rue. 75% of the        The High Court, however, ruled that
                                               polymer substrate has been supplied by         Kenyatta’s image portrait in the new
                                               CCL Secure and 25% by De La Rue.               generation currency notes is part of the
                                               The Bank has already announced that            KICC. The judges further ruled that the
                                               the £50 will be produced on polymer            CBK reasonably involved the public in
                                               featuring the mathematician Alan Turing,       the process.
The new note is smaller than its               but the design and issue date are yet to       The ruling came shortly before the 30
predecessor but follows the same design        be revealed.                                   September deadline for the highest
layout as the polymer £5 and £10.                                                             denomination in the older series, the Ks
                                                                                              1,000, to be demonetised and old notes
                                                                                              to be returned. The demonetisation was
                                                                                              designed as a crackdown on corruption

Rising Costs of Currency in Nigeria                                                           and money laundering by flushing out
                                                                                              illegally-acquired cash, and a number of
                                                                                              measures were put in place by the CBK to
According to the latest Central Bank           2017, indicating an increase of 33.83%.        prevent their exchange by criminals (see CN
of Nigeria (CBN) annual report, it             The volume of the higher denomination          June 2019).
spent N 64 billion ($177 million) on           notes in circulation increased from 42%
                                                                                              Out of 217 million old 1,000 notes in
the production of banknotes in 2018,           to 44.3%.
                                                                                              circulation, the CBK estimated that around
compared with N 49.2 billion in 2017           119,663 counterfeit notes with a nominal       80% would be returned. In the event, nearly
– an increase of 29%. The cumulative           value of N 98.82 million was recorded,         210 million (just under 97%) were returned,
increase between 2013 and 2018                 an increase of 1.3% over the previous          leading the Bank to call the exercise
is 105%.                                       year. The N 500 and N 1,000 notes              a success.
A total of 1.8 billion notes were destroyed    were the most commonly counterfeited,
                                                                                              Moreover, keen to avoid a repeat of the
in 2018 by the Currency Operations             accounting for 65.2% and 34.5%
                                                                                              Indian demonetisation fiasco, which took
Department at a cost of N 662.2 million,       respectively of the total. The counterfeit
                                                                                              place virtually overnight and caused
compared with 2.5 billion notes in 2017.       ratio was 18 ppm, compared with 16
                                                                                              significant hardship, riots and damage to
Furthermore, a total of N 5.63 billion         ppm the previous year.
                                                                                              the Indian economy, the CBK believes
was expended on air charter, compared          According to the CBN’s Currency                that it it has avoided any major disruption.
with N 4 billion during the corresponding      Department, it was confronted with a           In particular, fears of a spike in inflation
period in 2017.                                number of operational challenges in            caused by people rushing to spend their old
In total, the CBN spent N 73 billion on        2018, including the sale of newly-printed      Ks 1,000 did not materialise either - in fact,
currency operations, up by 29% over the        naira notes, poor handling habits by           inflation fell in the changeover period.
previous year.                                 the public, hoarding and the high cost
Cash in circulation grew by 0.8% to N 2.3      of currency management. It also cited
trillion. The total stock of currency in the   rising incidents of counterfeiting of the
CBN vaults as at the end of December           higher denomination notes, public apathy
2018 stood at 1.71 trillion pieces,            towards coins, and the disposal of
compared with 1.28 trillion pieces in          banknotes in eco-unfriendly manner.

                                                                                                      VOLUME 17 – NO 9 | SEPTEMBER 2019        3
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
News in Brief
  Crypto ‘Banknotes’                                Due to the confidential nature of the project,    By contrast, it costs less than J$3 to make
                                                    no details of the project status, timing, or      each J$5 and J$10 coin, and less than
  Bitcoin Suisse, a Swiss-based financial
                                                    financial terms are forthcoming.                  J$10 to make the J$20 coin. The cost of
  intermediary and pioneer in crypto-financial
                                                    ‘We consider this award a significant project     the J$1 coin, meanwhile, is $J2.30, but the
  services, has introduced crypto banknotes,
                                                    milestone in designing a security feature for     Bank does not intend withdrawing it due to
  namely transferable paper wallets that offer
                                                    our customer’s future banknotes,’ said Troy       its heavy usage. It is, however, reviewing
  an offline medium of storage for blockchain-
                                                    Bullock, President and CEO. ‘This project is      the design with a view to using less
  based assets. They consist of an exposed
                                                    progressing well overall and we appreciate        expensive materials.
  public address and the corresponding
                                                    the confidence this customer has shown in
  private key, which is hidden by physical
  security measures and can only be                 our technology.’                                  Royal Mint Strikes Gold
  accessed by damaging the wallet. The notes                                                          The Royal Mint has launched Raris, a
  are of a similar quality to banknotes, says the   South African Mint Engages                        somewhat curious combination of a digital
  company, and represent direct ownership of        the Public                                        payment tool and a piece of ‘bling’, made
  tokens like BTC, ETH, and XTZ.                                                                      of solid 18K gold and issued in association
                                                    The South African Mint is holding a
                                                                                                      with Mastercard and Accomplish Financial.
                                                    competition for the design of a new R2
                                                    circulation coin which will be issued in          The popularity, even before its official
                                                    2020. Following the success of the SA25           release date, of the physical titanium card
                                                    coin series commemorating ‘25 Years of            that Apple introduced this summer in
                                                    South Africa’s Constitutional Democracy’, it      partnership with Golden Sachs, is perhaps
                                                    has invited designs for the reverse of a new      an indication that some card users wish to
                                                    R2 coin, depicting a right from the South         have a real and tactile object in their wallet
                                                    Africa’s Bill of Rights.                          in addition to the digital payment utility the
                                                                                                      card provides.
                                                    Designers are free to choose a right from
                                                    the remaining 22 Bill of Rights – which did       The Raris card is the world’s first hallmarked
  Secure generation and printing of key                                                               precious metals payment card, and the first
                                                    not form part of the 2019 SA25 coin range.
  pairs is in a secure offline environment                                                            payment card to be manufactured by the
  under the supervision of two Swiss-based          The SA25 coin series was the culmination
                                                                                                      Royal Mint. Each card will be personalised
  notaries. With the private key only existing      of extensive public engagement sessions
                                                                                                      for its owner, with their name and signature
  physically on the certificate, the assets are     with South Africans. Young people born
                                                                                                      directly engraved into the precious metal.
  effectively stored 100% offline. The ‘notes’      in 1994 and after, colloquially referred
  includes several security features, among         to as ‘born-frees’, were invited to give          The card comes with a range of
  them a secure hologram with nano-optical          their perspectives on the concepts of             cardholders’ benefits, including a dedicated
  structures and microtext, guilloche and           democracy, freedom and culture in South           concierge service, an app to manage the
  spectral line patterns.                           Africa, many of which influenced the coin         account and zero foreign exchange and
                                                    themes, which in turn informed the designs        transaction fees. It is almost superfluous to
  According to Bitcoin Suisse CEO                                                                     mention that the Raris account comes with
                                                    of the five 2019 R2 circulation coins.
  Nikolajsen, ‘the new series of Bitcoin                                                              a limitless spending threshold.
  Suisse Crypto Certificates have the look          All submissions received will be shortlisted
  and feel of traditional paper banknotes and       and tested against a range of criteria
                                                    to ensure the winning design can be
                                                                                                      DLR Issues Profit Warning
  is, I dare say, a quite revolutionary paper
                                                    reproduced on metal.                              As Currency News™ went to press,
  wallet design. While it may seem counter
                                                                                                      De La Rue issued what amounts to a
  intuitive and almost a step back in time to
  make physical representations of crypto-          Redeem Your Reds,                                 profit warning for both its first half and
  currencies, they do serve a niche and have        Jamaicans Are Urged                               current year.
  various solid use cases, and if one wants         The Bank of Jamaica has launched a                The company, which has very recently
  physical crypto assets, this is in my view,       campaign to retrieve up to J$100 million          replaced its Chairman and CEO (see
  the best product available on the market.’        of 1, 20 and 25 cent coins (so-called ‘red        page 6), stated that it expects its first half
                                                    money’) which are still in circulation, despite   adjusted operating profits to the end of
  $5 Million Contract                               being demonetised in February 2018. It            September to be low-to-mid single digit
  for Nanotech                                      has partnered with GK Money Services              millions and that its full year 2019/20
                                                    in a recovery drive, urging Jamaicans in          adjusted operating profit will be significantly
  Nanotech Security Corp, which has
                                                    an advertising campaign to ‘Change Your           lower than market expectations.
  just launched its new banknote feature
  KolourDepth™ (see page 10), has also              Coins to Cash – for Free’.                        The statement also noted that the
  announced that it has been awarded a              The coins can be exchanged at the Bank,           company’s management, led by the new
  $5 million purchase order to advance a            or via coin sorting and counting machines         CEO, is conducting a detailed review of the
  confidential development contract to the          at 11 GK Money Services locations island-         business and will update the market further
  next stage.                                       wide. Under the deal with GK, the Bank has        when it reports its first half 2019/20 results
                                                    waived the 8% user fee for the transactions.      on 26 November.
  Over the past four years, Nanotech has
  generated revenue from the contract to            The coins were demonetised because their          The market reaction was immediate with
  design a unique security feature for a            costs had exceeded their face value. It was       the share price falling around to 20% to
  future banknote based on the company’s            costing J$1.73 to make the 1 cent, J$1.54         149p in early trading. At the beginning of
  KolourOptik® technology. With this new $5         to make the 10 cent and nearly J$2 to             the company’s financial year the share price
  million order, Nanotech says it has secured       make the 25 cent.                                 was around 400p and this time last year it
  its contract services revenue for fiscal 2020                                                       was around 500p, a fall of around 62.5%
  at levels similar to fiscal 2019.                                                                   and 70% respectively.

4 CURRENCY NEWS | NEWS IN BRIEF
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
distribution of banknote life and is still sensitive to                                                 until the new NGB series are issued in late 2019. This
                                                                                                various idiosyncratic factors, albeit less so.[7]                                                       doubled the estimates of banknote life using the

        Survival Analysis and the
                                                                                                These turnover-based methods estimate banknote                                                          simple turnover-based measure, but had almost no
                                                                                                life using a cross-section of data taken at a particular                                                effect on the model-based survival estimates which
                                                                                                                                                                                                        use all of the available data.

        Life of Australian Banknotes
                                                                                                point in time. In doing so, they implicitly assume
                                                                                                that whatever was happening at the time will
                                                                                                continue to happen into the future. That is, the                                                        Conclusion
                                                                                                prevailing conditions, or the state, are assumed to                                                     In late 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively, the Bank
        The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)                                                         An additional
                                                                                                remain   unchanged,challenge       formethods
                                                                                                                        and so these   using survival
                                                                                                                                              are                                                       released
                                                                                                                                                                                                       The     study   upgraded
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             also looked $5, $10at    anda $50simple NGBsteady
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            banknotes,
        is nearing the end of its programme                                                         analysis
                                                                                                referred  to as is  that polymer
                                                                                                                 steady-state      banknote life
                                                                                                                              methods.                                                                  and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                       state         existing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 model,           thestock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         numberof old NNS         series polymer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         of outstanding
    S
        to replace its ‘New Note Series’, after                                                    is determined
                                                                                                Graph   7 compares some           primarily  steady-stateby mechanical
                                                                                                                                                                    estimates of                       notes
                                                                                                                                                                                                        banknotes divided   wereby        the number
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     deemed          unfit; thedestroyed,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    new $20 NGB is
        25 years in circulation, with its ‘Next                                                    damage,
                                                                                                        S U R V I VA L which
                                                                                                                       A N A LY S I S Ais
                                                                                                average banknote life with those from
                                                                                                                                         N Drandom;              therefore
                                                                                                                                              T H E L I F E O F AU S T R A L I A N B A Nthe
                                                                                                                                                                      the model.
                                                                                                                                                                                         K N OT E S    and
                                                                                                                                                                                                        due what            is known
                                                                                                                                                                                                               to be released                  as 2019.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         in late     the Feige          model,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              This banknote
         or a policy change
        Generation            from the series.
                        Banknote’         Bank thatIn tends
                                                        its to                                     chance of ‘death’ is the same whatever the                                                          the   average
                                                                                                                                                                                                        upgrade        program, number            of outstanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         after roughly         25 years using the
                                                                                                As can be seen, one issue with steady-state
e       September       Bulletin,
         increase banknote    life. Forthe  RBA’s
                                        example,       Shane
                                                   demand    for                                   age,though.
                                                                                                            or inkBanknotewear, quality   whichprograms,  accumulates   for example,     and so        notes  candivided
                                                                                                                                                                                                        previous
                                                                                                                                                                                                        bias        bepolymer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          explained bybanknote
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          whenaverage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    we series,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        recognise  of  old
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   provides   notes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       that the   a good
                                                                                                methods      is that they can                 be highly volatile.                 This
        Aves    tooksignificantly
         banknotes     the opportunity
                                     increased to
                                               aheadcompare
                                                        of Y2K,                                    the which
                                                                                                         note seek    diestoonly replace     when           the allotted
                                                                                                                                                a significant       share of number                    destroyed
                                                                                                                                                                                                        opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                                                        model     predicts   and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              tothe   new
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       age of notes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   evaluate                issued
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   howbanknotes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                unfit    our            ateach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 banknotes the have   year.
                                                                                                stems from the fact that the steady-state methods
        basic    steadyinstate
         which resulted              ‘turnover’
                            each individual         modelling
                                               banknote     being                                  of transactions
                                                                                                        outstanding worn             is banknotes
                                                                                                                                           complete.         withThefreshly    importance
                                                                                                                                                                                   printed             These
                                                                                                                                                                                                        time       steady
                                                                                                                                                                                                        wornofinprocessing,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     use. Overall,  state
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      whereas  models
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            I find  the sample
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     that      aredata
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            over      easy
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     their are  to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                for of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            period
                                                                                                are generally estimated based on a window of a
e       with
         used a   Survival
               less          Analysis
                    and so higher           to see
                                      banknote         how well
                                                life, despite an                                   of wear          means
                                                                                                        ones, initially        slow  that       banknotes
                                                                                                                                          the destruction           ratedo   as new not age            calculate
                                                                                                                                                                                                        banknotes
                                                                                                                                                                                                        use, the average  butin have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         still       life ofshortcomings.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   circulation      which would
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                old-series                 They are:
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       otherwise
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 polymer
                                                                                                single year
o       they
         overallestimated     the performance
                 increase in transaction    demand. of the                                                  asofadata.
                                                                                                   and,banknotes           areThe
                                                                                                                        result,   issued  effects
                                                                                                                                         the   inconceptfrom temporary
                                                                                                                                                   preparation       offor‘activity
                                                                                                                                                                               the                      have lived longer before they were returned to the
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Based on
                                                                                                                                                                                                        banknotes               averages.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            increases       as theNeither
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      denomination  approach   gets
        New Note Series.                                                                        factors
                                                                                                   time’ arerather
                                                                                                        program.magnifiedThethan     because
                                                                                                                                effect    ageis thenhas they  toare
                                                                                                                                                          reversedbeassumed
                                                                                                                                                                        once
                                                                                                                                                                           used. Lost      to           Bank. It is less clear why the models appear to be
d        The fit of the survival model improves with time,                                                                                                                                                shows
                                                                                                                                                                                                        higher:          the over
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    a little      distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         5 years forofthe     note     life;$10; a little
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $5 and
                                                                                                remain   in   place
                                                                                                        commercial       for   the
                                                                                                                             banks       entire
                                                                                                                                          start
                                                                                                   and hoarded notes, of course, complicate          life
                                                                                                                                                   returning of the
                                                                                                                                                                  their series.
                                                                                                                                                                             stock     Such
                                                                                                                                                                                        of old          slightly biased in regards to fit banknotes – either
        The   RBA conducts
         particularly             a Commercial
                       post 2006 when                Cash
                                         there were fewer                                               banknotes          for processing.                                                              over
                                                                                                                                                                                                        the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                S U R V I VA L A N A LY S I S A N D T H E L I F E O F AU S T R A L I A N B A N K N OT E S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                10
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Neither,
                                                                                                                                                                                                             models  years      for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            although
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           are        the $20;
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                somewhat            and   around
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               tomisspecified
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     differing         15 years are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     extents,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    or the             for
                                                                                                factors  usually
                                                                                                   the modelling.      have       little     to   do     with    the     structural
        Sampling      (CCS) programme,
         banknote cleansing     programs and whereby
                                               other such                                                                                                                                               the   $50. Thisused
                                                                                                                                                                                                          sensitive
                                                                                                                                                                                                        assumptions            is consistent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              to     to calculatewith
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   demand            shocks;lower-denomination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      the age      of banknotes
                                                                                                integrity   of the
                                                                                                        While      thebanknote,
                                                                                                                          overall fit is but           are morethe
                                                                                                                                               encouraging,             often  model  the
        10,000    notes
         distortions.       are removed
                       The model  performsfrom     circulation
                                             particularly well on                                  Apart
                                                                                                    changes    from       ensuringprocessing
                                                                                                                    in capture
                                                                                                                         banknote                 the model               did not
                                                                                                                                                                   policies.          A to
                                                                                                                                                                                         slightly       banknotes
                                                                                                                                                                                                        from         CCSincurring
                                                                                                                                                                                                               the assume
                                                                                                                                                                                                              banknote       datalifeare
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       at   higher
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          somewhat
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           the    time,wear      through
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          inaccurate.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          and     then     Mostgreater
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          reverse
                                                                                                result ofneeds
                                                                                                           the currency
                                                                                                                    to                issuer’s
                                                                                                                                        the entire   own       policies.
                                                                                                                                                           distribution         ifFor
                                                                                                                                                                                   it is                  They                          that     the   past       predicts          thethis once
        from   retail  deposits   and   tested   for fitness
         the $50 denomination. Australian $50 banknotes                                            allow
                                                                                                    more
                                                                                                              time to run ‘backwards’
                                                                                                             sophisticated                method,            again
                                                                                                                                                                       and tracking
                                                                                                                                                                       based          on                use   for
                                                                                                                                                                                                        likely,    transactions.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                both
                                                                                                                                                                                                              the         are true to some
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     contingency             event  extent.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      had passed. In contrast, the
                                                                                                        provide        valid   information
                                                                                                example, in 1999 the Bank ceased destroying unfit     beyond       just    simple                         future;
        relative  to their
         are thought    to bedate  of manufacture.
                              primarily                  This
                                        used as a store of value,                                  the measures
                                                                                                         age of issuance,of central
                                                                                                                                                  this study              considered
                                                                                                    turnover,
                                                                                                banknotes        to isbuild
                                                                                                                         detailed
                                                                                                                                athat      intendency.
                                                                                                                                     contingencyFeige (1989)   One
                                                                                                                                                               stock  way
                                                                                                                                                                        andtoY2K.   check
                                                                                                                                                                                   calculated           Graph  6 shows
                                                                                                                                                                                                             policy       the average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      change      had      survival
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        little      curve
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               effect  on for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            oureach
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  estimates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        dataof
        provided    a check against which the different
         while lower denominations are used more for
                                                                                                   twowhether
                                                                                                          variables     this  is   the       affect
                                                                                                                                           case    is  to   the   ratefor
                                                                                                                                                            compare        the ofmodel’s
                                                                                                                                                                                     wear The             Usually
                                                                                                                                                                                                        denomination,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      they are
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          taken
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      based
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  from the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 on single
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              time they   were
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 first
                                                                                                    as was
                                                                                                effect the average
                                                                                                               to    increase  number the         of outstanding
                                                                                                                                               steady-state           estimates   banknotesof             where a change that year is assumed to its
                                                                                                                                                                                                             banknote      life. More    recently,   the   Bank    limited
        models could    [3] be assessed.                                                           – the     prevailing
                                                                                                        predictions                   economic
                                                                                                                                           observed byconditions                         and
         transactions.                High levels of hoarding will tend to                          divided        by thetoaverage
                                                                                                                                 data
                                                                                                                                                 of old banknotesthe Bank in the
                                                                                                                                                                                     destroyed          issued until the end of 2018. The dashed line at
                                                                                                                                                                                                             processing
                                                                                                                                                                                                          extend     into theof the    remaining
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    future.     Thestock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      result of is
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 $20high
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       NNS
        Survival  analysis      hasof its  roots in  predicting                                    changes
                                                                                                        course of     toitsthe        RBA’sGraphs
                                                                                                                              operations.             policies. 4 and 5 compare                         50 per cent intersects with the median life for all
         smooth out    the effect      economic    events   on                                      and new banknotes issued each year (hereafter the                                                        banknotes.
                                                                                                                                                                                                          levels   of        This was
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       volatility      in an
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           the operational
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 resulting    decision
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               graph.     to
        the life of life,
                     organisms.        Therelatively
                                             paper describes                                            predictions
                                                                                                   Inflation,         for   of   the
                                                                                                                             example,    average
                                                                                                                                     Graph           can age
                                                                                                                                                      6 nothingof fit banknotes in
                                                                                                                                                               increase                                 banknotes in that denomination. Given that our
         banknote         given that the              low share of
                                                                                                                                                                                                        data are largely silent onGraph           7 of $20s
                                                                                                    ‘Feige’     method).
                                                                                                        circulationvelocity,
                                                                                                                                   Again,
                                                                                                                           and unfit banknotes
                                                                                                                                                 it says        returned
                                                                                                                                                                                about
                                                                                                                                                                                  for
                                                                                                                                                                                           the               ensure that the current           stock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       the destruction    date of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 would last
        how   survival
         banknotes    thatanalysis     is circulating
                            are actively  usually used,are the only                                circulation     Estimated Survival          at least          until supply
                                                                                                                                                           Curves*
                                                                                                    distribution          of  banknote
                                                                                                        processing to information                   lifetaken from the Bank’s to
                                                                                                                                                            and   is   still    sensitive                    until Average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        long-living,     new NGB
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     high-value         series Life
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Banknote        are issued
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     denominations,           inoflate 2019. This
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Estimates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        the tail
        along   with   the   underlying
         ones affected. The accumulated      formula    used
                                               effects of      to
                                                           transitory                              catches
                                                                                                    %
                                                                                                                     up,     causing
                                                                                                                                  by Denomination
                                                                                                                                                   greater         wear. A quality
                                                                                                                                                                $10 less so.[7]%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Model vs Simple Turnover and Feige Steady State Methods
                                                                                                    various
                                                                                                        commercialidiosyncratic
                                                                                                                       $5
                                                                                                                             cash sampling   factors,(CCS)  albeitprogram.                              the  doubled
                                                                                                                                                                                                            $50
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Years           the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 distribution
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            $5 estimates
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 in           of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    particular,   banknote
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 should  $10 life using
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          probably         the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Years
        calculate the time of destruction, the lifetime                                              programme
                                                                                                     75                 that leads to more notes 75
                                                                                                      These    turnover-based                                                                                simple[6]turnover-based measure, but had almost no
                                                                                                                                                                                                        be ignored.
        distribution, the event density and the                                                      being
                                                                                                     50
                                                                                                           In particular,
                                                                                                               withdrawn         asmethods
                                                                                                                          the Bank  records  theestimate
                                                                                                                                     unfit will     year  of banknote
                                                                                                                                                    initially  slow
                                                                                                                                                                 50
                                                                                                                                                                                                             10                                                                         10

                                                                                                      life manufacture     of around
                                                                                                            using a cross-section      10,000 banknotes
                                                                                                                                        of data   taken    atthat are in
                                                                                                                                                              abeing
                                                                                                                                                                particular                                 effect on the model-based survival estimates which
        hazard rate.                                                                                 destruction       due      to more     new      notes                                              Comparison    withavailable
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Alternative
                                                  Graph 3                                            25 deposited by retailers each year and then sent25on to
                                                                                                     circulation,
                                                                                                      point in time.although
                                                                                                                         In doing so,  this  will
                                                                                                                                          they      reverse.
                                                                                                                                               implicitly        High
                                                                                                                                                              assume                                       use
                                                                                                                                                                                                           5   all of the           data.             5

                                                                                                           the Bank$20
                                                                                                                     for analysis. It is important    to note,                                          Model Estimates
               Expected Quantity of Surviving Banknotes                                              stocks     of fit, used
                                                                                                      that whatever               notes also
                                                                                                                          was happening              tend
                                                                                                                                               at$50the  timetowill
                                                                                                                                                                 slow                                                    $20
                                                                                                                                                                                                        There are alternative                         $50
                                Generalised Gamma with Activity Time
                                                    $5 NNS
                                                                                                     75 however, that the year of manufacture says little
                                                                                                     circulation
                                                                                                      continue to velocity.
                                                                                                                      happen into the future. That is, 75        the                                         Conclusion ways to estimate banknote life.
f                                                                                                          about when a banknote was actually issued to the                                             The20most common method is based purely on the 40
              NNS
                    Recolour
                                      Y2K
                                         FED/VCH                      GFC    Quality1
                                                                                                     50
                                                                                                      prevailing
                                                                                                     The     survival
                                                                                                          public,      conditions,
                                                                                                                     and     analysis
                                                                                                                            so  to use these orshowed
                                                                                                                                                   thedata
                                                                                                                                                         state,  are   assumed
                                                                                                                                                                  a note
                                                                                                                                                              to estimate     life to
                                                                                                                                                                             how
                                                                                                                                                                                      50                     In late
                                                                                                                                                                                                        turnover      2016, 2017and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  of banknotes,    and    2018 respectively,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       is simply   the number ofthe Bank
                                                                                                      remain
                                                                                                     of about
                                                                                                     25           unchanged,
                                                                                                                     five years
                                                                                                          long a particular              andfor the
                                                                                                                                     banknote      so these
                                                                                                                                                      has A$5   methods
                                                                                                                                                            been in  and       are
                                                                                                                                                                            A$10
                                                                                                                                                                               25
                                                                                                                                                                       circulation I                         releasedbanknotes
                                                                                                                                                                                                            10
                                                                                                                                                                                                        outstanding     upgraded     $5, $10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  divided       andnumber
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             by the   $50 NGB    of banknotes,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       20

                                                                                                      referred
                                                                                                     and
                                                                                                      0 need 10-15 to
                                                                                                                   to   as
                                                                                                                       make
                                                                                                            5 10 15 20 25
                                                                                                                             steady-state
                                                                                                                          years         for
                                                                                                                                assumptions      the methods.
                                                                                                                                                        A$20
                                                                                                                                                       around
                                                                                                                                                    5 10 15 20 25  and
                                                                                                                                                                  the      A$50.
                                                                                                                                                                        timing 0of                           and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        banknotes      existinginstock
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    destroyed     a year.ofThis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             oldmethod
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   NNS series polymer
                                                                                                                                                                                                             0                                                         0
                                                                                                                         [5]                                                                            provides  an estimate
                                                                                                                                                                                                             banknotes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1997     wereofdeemed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2007     central
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2017 tendency        butnew
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               unfit; the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1997      2007    says2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   $20 NGB is
                                                                                                     The     life7 of
                                                                                                          issuances.
                                                                                                      Graph             the A$100
                                                                                                                     Years
                                                                                                                   compares            some was             not
                                                                                                                                                            Years measured
                                                                                                                                                    steady-state       estimates of
                                                                                                                                                                                                        nothing            Model   Simple Turnover   Feige
                                                                                                                                                                                                             dueabout
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   to bethe distribution    of 2019.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               banknoteThislife. The
                                                                                                        *  Average survival curves, from first issuance to November 2018
                                                   $10 NNS
                                                                                                     because
                                                                                                          Overall,    it  is
                                                                                                                      Graphs   used
                                                                                                                                  4   and   predominantly
                                                                                                                                              5   suggest     that        as model.
                                                                                                                                                                    the the   a store
                                                                                                                                                                          banknote                                       released    in late                  banknote
s                   NNS               Y2K   VCH        Quality1       GFC                             average banknote life with those                          from                                    method is also sensitive to various idiosyncratic
                                                                       Quality2
                                                                                                     ofAsvalue      note.
                                                                                                          life estimates,       while close, are slightly upwardly
                                                                                                          can be seen, one issue with steady-state
                                                                                                                                                                                                             upgrade program, after roughly 25 years using the
                                                                                                                                                                                                        factors such as banknote demand shocks and
                                                                                                         biased overall. For unfit banknotes, the apparent                                             Withoutprevious
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    the polymer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           full historybanknote       series, provides
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             of a banknote,          thea good
                                                                                                     The  CCSisprogram
                                                                                                      methods     that they cansuggested
                                                                                                                                    be highly that   theThis
                                                                                                                                               volatile.                                                                                         BULLETIN – SEPTEMBER 2019
                                                                                                     survival  analysis                                                                                application
                                                                                                                                                                                                              opportunity of survival
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               to evaluate  analysis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                how          banknotes have 6 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        ourcomplements
                                                                                                      stems from  the factslightly
                                                                                                                             that theoverstated       note life.
                                                                                                                                       steady-state methods
                                                                                                       are generally estimated    Graph
                                                                                                                                     based4on a window of a
                                                                                                                                                                                                       steady wornstate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     in use.modelling
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Overall,      5to give
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   GraphI find             a credible
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   that over   their period of
                                                   $20 NNS
                                                                                                                   Age of Fit banknotes in Circulation                                                 pictureuse, of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   thenote
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         average
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Age of lifeUnfit
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     life of an    understanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              old-series
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          banknotes          polymer
                      NNS             Y2K   VCH            Quality1
                                                                      GFC                              single year ofEstimated
                                                                                                                       data. The    effects
                                                                                                                               and CCS samples,from
                                                                                                                                                2011 totemporary
                                                                                                                                                        2018                                                         Estimated and CCS Samples, 2011 to 2018
                                                                                                           Years          $5                        $10        Years                                   ofYears
                                                                                                                                                                                                           key   variables.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              banknotes             Although
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          $5 increases     as thepolymer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     denomination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     $10         notes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Years gets
                                                                                                       factors are magnified because they are assumed to
                                                                                                                                                                                                       degrade
                                                                                                                                                                                                            10higher:differently
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       a little overfrom 5 yearspaper-based
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    for the $5 and10 notes,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $10; a little
                                                                                                       remain in place for the entire life of the series.10Such
                                                                                                              10

                                                                                                                                                                                                       this over
                                                                                                                                                                                                              methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10  years    for would
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     the   $20; transfer
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  and         across
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         around  15   years for
                                                                                                       factors5usually have little to do with the structural   5                                             5                                                    5
                                                                                                                                                                                                       withthe soiling    replacing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  $50. This                ink wear.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                is consistent     with lower-denomination
                                                   $50 NNS                                             integrity of the banknote, but are more often the
                          NNS         Y2K   VCH                       GFC                                                $20                        $50                                                A sampling
                                                                                                                                                                                                            banknotes  program,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      $20                such $50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          incurring higher         as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   wearthe  RBA’sgreater
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         through
                                                                                                       result of the currency issuer’s own policies. For
                                                                                                              10                                               10                                      CSS   program,
                                                                                                                                                                                                          10use              is clearly a valuable tool
                                                                                                                                                                                                                for transactions.                              10
                                                                                                       example, in 1999 the Bank ceased destroying unfit
                                                                                                                                                                                                       to give  confidence           in  the   end    result.   It will
                                                                                                       banknotes
                                                                                                               5
                                                                                                                    to build a contingency stock for Y2K.      5
                                                                                                                                                                   The                                     5                                                   5
                                                                                                                                                                                                       be interesting to see whether the Next
                                                                                                       effect was
                                                                                                               0   to increase the steady-state estimates      0     of                                    0                                                   0
             1993              1998          2003              2008               2013   2018                                    2014           2018             2014           2018                   Generation  2014Banknote  2018     series
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2014 performs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2018

                                                  Actual   Estimate
                                                                                                                                          Estimates     CCS Sample
                                                                                                                                                                                                       as well as the New Note Series in year
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Estimates   CCS Sample

                                                                                                                                             Graph 6                                                   to come.
         * NNS represents the introduction of NNS banknotes; Recolour is a                                                                                                                                                                        Graph 7
        Achange
             key inelement
                     colour to theof   a normal
                                   $5 banknotes;  FEDsurvival       analysis
                                                       represents the  issuance of a                                         Estimated Survival Curves*
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Average Banknote Life Estimates
                                                                                                      60     R E S E R V E B A N K O F AU S by
                                                                                                                                            T R ADenomination
                                                                                                                                                  LIA
        isspecial
             knowing         when $5’
                  edition ’Federation  the   organism
                                          banknote;            was
                                                     VCH relates      born in
                                                                 to a change
                                                                                                             %                    $5                                  $10                  %                             Model vs Simple Turnover and Feige Steady State Methods
          distribution policy; Quality 1 and Quality 2 are various banknote                                                                                                                                     Years                $5                          $10             Years
/       and      when it died to estimate the survival
          cleansing programs. See Appendix A for more detail.                                               75                                                                             75
        function for the population. Central banks                                                          50                                                                             50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10                                                                        10

        who track serial numbers have this data.                                                            25                                                                             25                        5                                                                        5
        Without it this study used aggregated issue
        and destruction data. The total quantity                                                                                 $20                                  $50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $20                                $50
                                                                                                            75                                                                             75
        of the surviving banknotes in existence                                                                                                                                                                     20                                                                        40
        is modelled as the sum of the surviving                                                             50                                                                             50

        banknotes from each issuance. Because all                                                           25                                                                             25                       10                                                                        20

        banknotes are regarded as being identical,                                                            0
                                                                                                                      5     10    15 20       25           5     10    15 20          25
                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0                                                                        0
        it was assumed that the survival function                                                                                Years                                Years                                               1997         2007         2017     1997         2007         2017

        was identical for all.                                                                                    *   Average survival curves, from first issuance to November 2018                                                      Model     Simple Turnover       Feige

                                                                                                                                                                                                SPECIAL REPORT | VOLUME 17 – NO 10 |B UOCTOBER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       L L E T I N – S E P2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           TEMBER 2019                                      61
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
People in the News
                                                Christine Lagarde, former Managing                   Clive Vacher has been appointed Chief
     Jean-Pierre Savare                         Director of the IMF, has been appointed as           Executive Officer, replacing Martin
                                                                                                     Sutherland. He has more than 16 years’
                                                President of the European Central Bank.
     Jean-Pierre Savare, the founder of         She succeeds Mario Draghi, who is                    experience running global industrial
     modern-day Oberthur Fiduciaire, has        stepping down after eight years in the post.         companies in both the commercial and
     died at the age of 82.                                                                          government/defence sectors, and in
     Although the history of the company                                                             particular has significant experience of
     dates back more than 175 years, it         Ahmed Obaid Al-Fadhli is the new
                                                                                                     international business transformation and
     was its acquisition by Jean-Pierre in      Governor of the Central Bank of Yemen,
                                                                                                     operational performance improvement. He
     1984 for the token sum of one franc        one of two in the country, currently in a
                                                                                                     was previously CEO and President of the
     that began its transformation into         state of civil war. He replaces Mohammed
                                                                                                     Canadian listed company Dynex Power,
     the world’s second largest banknote        Zammam.
                                                                                                     where he led a privatisation sale earlier this
     printer, and secured his reputation                                                             year. He has also held senior positions with
     as one of the industry’s key leaders       Ali Hashim, a former Maldivian finance               Pratt and Whitney, Rolls-Royce, General
     and entrepreneurs.                         minister, has been appointed the Governor            Dynamics Corporation and B/E Aerospace.
     Under his leadership, the company          of the Maldives Monetary Authority,                  Shortly before his appointment, Kevin
     expanded from banknote and security        replacing Ahmed Naseer who resigned                  Loosemore took up the position of non-
     printing through scratch cards,            in July.                                             executive director and Chairman, replacing
     lotteries and cheques into ID and                                                               Philip Rogerson. He was formerly
     smart cards in the 1990s, as well as                                                            Chairman of Micro Focus International plc, a
                                                Susan Woods has been appointed by
     cash protection. It was listed in 2000,                                                         FTSE 100 multinational software business,
                                                the Reserve Bank of Australia as the
     but then delisted eight years later, and                                                        and has also held senior executive positions
                                                new Chair of the Board of Note Printing
     in 2010 sold its ID and card activities                                                         with Cable & Wireless, Motorola and IBM.
                                                Australia (NPA), replacing Chris Aylmer
     to the venture capital firm, Advent                                                             He was Managing Director of one of De La
                                                who will retire at the end of 2019 after a
     for just over €1 billion, in order to                                                           Rue’s businesses between 1997 and 1999.
                                                career spanning 40 years with the Bank.
     focus on currency. Since then, it has                                                           To complete the changes to the Board,
                                                Susan joined the RBA in March last year as
     more than doubled its capacity to five                                                          Andy Stevens, Senior Independent
                                                Assistant Governor (Corporate Services),
     billion banknotes a year. It has also                                                           Director, has stepped down. He is replaced
                                                overseeing the Bank’s Information
     expanded into threads and security                                                              by Sabri Challah.
                                                Technology and Workplace (Facilities
     features and, through the acquisition
                                                Management) departments.                             De La Rue is also continuing apace with
     of the Dutch paper mill VHP, into
     paper production as well.                                                                       the reorganisation of the business into
                                                                                                     two divisions. The Currency Division will
     As the founder and President he                                                                 be led by Ruth Euling as its Managing
     was the driving force behind the                                                                Directory (previously Global Sales Director
     company’s rapid development and                                                                 for Currency), while Andrew Clint has
     remained closely involved up until his                                                          been appointed Managing Director for the
     death, even as he formally stepped                                                              Authentication Division (he was previously
     down from operational duties several                                                            Global Business Development Director for
     years ago.                                                                                      Product Authentication and Traceability).
     A lover and investor in Bordeaux wine                                                           The reorganisation is designed to enhance
     (Franc Mayne, a leading Bordeaux                                                                strategic focus and generate greater
     chateau, was the latest investment in                                                           efficiencies for the company.
     this area), Jean-Pierre Savare was also    Susan Woods (second from left) together with
                                                the NPA Board team (L-R) Ross Pilling, Robert
     a keen rugby enthusiast, to the extent     Middleton-Jones, retiring Chair Chris Aylmer, Greg
     that he and the family saved the Stade                                                          Further to the recent Board election at the
                                                Johnston, and Michelle McPhee.
     Francais, Paris’ professional rugby                                                             International Association of Currency Affairs
     club, from bankruptcy and brought it                                                            (IACA), four new members have joined
     its last French Championship title.                                                             the Board – Ron Arends (Canadian Bank
                                                Samson Yuen has been appointed Head                  Not Company), Ruth Euling (De La Rue),
     According to someone who worked            of the Currency and Settlement Division at           Stefan Hardt (Deutsche Bundesbank) and
     closely with him over many years,          the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA),             Neil Sanders (CCL Secure). They replace
     Jean-Pierre Savare was a truly             replacing Lydia Chan who has retired.                Richard Hird (De La Rue), Bernhard
     legendary figure – a visionary, an         He joined the HKMA in 1998 and was                   Imbach (CCL Secure), Doug Mennie
     entrepreneur, a man who was so             seconded to Hong Kong Note Printing in               (Cummins Allison) and Michelle Bullock
     driven and so tough but also one of        2011 as its Director and General Manager             (Reserve Bank of Australia). Antti Heinonen
     extraordinary sensitivity and kindness     in 2011.                                             (BnEI), Maureen Carroll (Bank of Canada)
     to his family and employees – a quite                                                           and Richard Wall (IACA Chairman) were all
     brilliant, charismatic man and a huge                                                           re-elected.
                                                De La Rue has made a number of key
     loss to our industry.
                                                appointments and provided further details
     His legacy is to leave a strong and        of its reorganisation into two business units.
     growing company whose culture
     he developed and nurtured. The
     company is now owned by his three
     children and will continue to be run by
     his son Thomas.

6 CURRENCY NEWS | PEOPLE IN THE NEWS
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
Bundesdruckerei – More than a Printer,
a Partner for the Future
Dieter Sauter rejoined the German
state printer Bundesdruckerei (BDR)
in April as Senior Vice President and
General Manager of Value Printing,
after a 17 year absence, with a
mandate to take forward the business
unit, which produces banknotes as
well as postage stamps. He is also
Chairman of Intergraf’s Committee of
Experts, responsible for developing
the programme for the SecurityPrinters
Banknote+Identity conference. Currency
News spoke to him about his new role at
Bundesdruckerei and what he thinks the
company has to offer to central banks
and the industry.
Q: Can you give a few details about your
career prior to joining BDR.
A: I trained and have a doctorate as a
physicist at the Max Planck Institute for
Metal Research in Stuttgart. I started my
career in the security printing industry
at Bundesdruckerei in Berlin within the
                                                Q: Apart from an interlude from 2000-2009         So just because we are owned by the
R&D division, and then spent several
                                                under private ownership, BDR always been          German government doesn’t mean that we
years in R&D and sales with Giesecke +
                                                state-owned. Presumably you used to print         can sit there and expect to receive orders.
Devrient before joining Orell Füssli in 2011
                                                the deutschmark, and now the euro?                We have to go out and get them.
as Head of Technology. In 2014 I took
over the role of Chief Technology Officer       A: Yes, we are euro qualified for the ECB         Q: What determines whether you get those
with responsibility for sales, marketing        and have been ever since the beginning.           orders or not?
and technology and subsequently was             We have invested in what has been                 A: It’s down to price. All euro suppliers
appointed joint Managing Director. After a      required to produce the new euro series,          have to be qualified, and the accreditation
17 year absence, I joined Bundesdruckerei       and we have also upgraded our security            criteria, standards and specifications are all
again this April.                               in line with new ECB requirements. So we          set. So all things being equal, the difference
                                                continue to be capable of mastering all the       comes down to price.
Q: What is your role within BDR?
                                                needs for euro production.
A: I am head of the business unit for value                                                       Q: What is your capacity?
                                                But that doesn’t give us an automatic
printing, meaning I have full profit and loss                                                     A: We have one line, which equates to just
                                                right to print euros. There are basically two
responsibility for banknote production and                                                        over one billion banknotes per year.
                                                options for the supply – the opt-in and
stamps. That includes features, pigments,                                                         Q: In addition to euro work, how successful
                                                opt-out models. Some printers are owned
security systems such as sensors – in other                                                       have you been on the international market
                                                by their central banks and get their orders
words, anything around banknotes.                                                                 in recent years?
                                                direct. But then they are only allowed a
Q: How many business units are there and        small involvement in the international market     A: As I said, there is no guarantee for
what is their business?                         – something like 80% of their revenues            euro work, but we are also free to seek
A: Six. Basically all of them develop           have to come from euro production.                international work.
digital solutions and products for secure       We are not in that model. We are state            In recent years, however, BDR has been
digitalisation `Made in Germany'. The           owned, but are one of two banknote                undergoing a digital transformation – maybe
product portfolio of the other units includes   printers in Germany and aren’t automatically      only half of the business units are actually
topics like ID cards, ID management, digital    awarded any contracts for Germany, or             still making physical products. The rest
data management, trust service products,        any other euro contracts for that matter.         of the business is focused on high tech,
for example certificates and signature          We have to tender – and the available work        digital solutions and systems – for example
services, and secure digital infrastructures.   is from either the Bundesbank or JET (the         security of servers, or data transfer and
Q: How long has BDR been                        Joint Euro Tender), a joint purchasing group      storage – whatever is needed by the state
printing banknotes?                             in which a number of smaller countries            or private companies.
A: For a long time. We printed the first        without their own printworks combine their         Continued on page 8 >
banknotes in 1879. And even before that,        requirements, with the Dutch central bank
we were printing other value documents.         taking care of organising the tenders.
We are more than 250 years old. Of course,
in those days, it was the Kingdom of
Prussia and not Germany as it is today.

                                                                                              ON THE RECORD | VOLUME 17 – NO 10 | OCTOBER 2019     7
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
Historic Highs                              Bundesdruckerei (Continued)
  for Australian                              The point is that, during this transformation    So – in addition to our ownership, security

  Banknotes
                                              process, the focus wasn’t on banknotes.          and infrastructure – that is perhaps another
                                              My main task now, therefore, is to build         of our USPs.
                                              up a team and make BDR more visible in           In addition to the 450 researchers, we also
  In its 2018-19 Annual Report, the           the international market, and in particular      have an innovation department of around
  Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)             looking not just a banknote printing             30-40 people which is trend screening
  demonstrated progress against               itself, but offering a complete service to       around the globe for all kinds of industries.
  all of its core responsibilities and        central banks.                                   Their focus includes all the activities that we
  key projects.                                                                                and the other business units are involved in,
                                              Q: As you begin your quest for international
  The value of notes in circulation rose      business, are there any particular parts of      with so many opportunities where we can
  6%, a slight fall to 4% as a proportion     the world that you're going to focus on.         learn from one another.
  of GDP, although still a historical high.                                                    Q: So if you've got all the bases covered
                                              A: We are flexible. It entirely depends on the
  At the end of June, there were 1.6                                                           for actual banknote production, what more
                                              customers – who is tendering, who is giving
  billion banknotes in circulation, worth                                                      can you be doing? Data management and
                                              orders, launching a new family, doing a
  A$80 billion. The proportion of notes                                                        analytics is a current hot topic in currency –
                                              commemorative note etc.
  used as a store of value is believed to                                                      it sounds like this is an area and a strength
  be falling but is estimated to be 62.5%     We are also very flexible in terms of our
                                                                                               for BDR.
  of the total stock, with 25% used for       partners in the banknote supply chain. We
                                              source what is needed by the customer as         A: Certainly. If you look at one of the big
  legitimate transactions and 5% used in
                                              we are not bound to any particular supplier.     demands from central banks and their
  the shadow economy. The balance is
                                                                                               issuing departments, it’s big data. This, too,
  regarded as ‘lost’.                         Q: What sets you apart from other
                                                                                               is a big topic at BDR – not necessarily in the
  There were 18,000 counterfeits, a rate      banknote suppliers?
                                                                                               value printing unit yet, but the technology
  of 11 parts per million, down 38% on        A: As a future product and solution service      and know-how can be transferred from
  2017-18. The A$50 accounted for 59%         to the central banks, we have some               other business units that area already
  and the A$100 37% of the counterfeits.      distinct USPs that will enable us to position    dealing with this.
  A public perception survey showed that      ourselves in this way.
                                                                                               Again, that is key to BDR – we don’t work
  60% of respondents did not think there      For example, BDR belongs to the state.           in silos. We stay focused on our respective
  was a counterfeiting problem.               Also, Germany has a very robust economy          areas but we work together to come up
  In October 2018 the A$50 New                and is represented around the world.             with common solutions.
  Generation Banknote Series (NGB) was        This means that people have trust and
                                                                                               Q: Another big topic at the moment in the
  released. It accounted for 8% of A$50       confidence in us and, in terms of security,
                                                                                               industry is corporate social responsibility. Is
  notes by the end of June 2019, a slower     are keen to buy products made in Germany.
                                                                                               BDR taking the necessary steps to ensure
  take up than the A$5s and A$10s. The        I would also say that, when customers            you are good corporate citizens?
  A$50 makes up the highest volume            visit BDR, they can look around and see
  of notes in circulation and is the main                                                      A: Very much so. Because we belong to
                                              what BDR offers additionally, particularly in
  ATM note.                                                                                    the state, we are very visible and there is
                                              terms of technology and our other business
                                                                                               a really high risk of reputational damage if
  The new National Banknote Site (NBS)        units. When you see the transformation the
                                                                                               we don’t do things right. So there is really
  became fully operational in August          company has undertaken, it shows we are
                                                                                               a high level of responsibility and focus in
  2018, allowing the closure of the           much more than just a printer. We are really
                                                                                               this area.
  Melbourne city centre storage facility      into secure digital transformation, and this
  and the planned closure of storage at       impacts banknotes because it shows what          We are not yet accredited to BnEI, but we
  the Sydney Head Office at the end of        kind of support and service we can offer         will be. And we are also ISO-certified. So
  2019. The NBS is a state-of-the-art         beyond just banknote production.                 we already have many obligations to fulfil to
  purpose-built facility to store, process                                                     be ethical, correct and to act from a strong
                                              Q: But if we focus for the time being on
  and distribute notes. A$6.8 billion new                                                      moral perspective. This is very important for
                                              production, what level of vertical integration
  and A$1.7 billion recycled notes were                                                        the BDR management.
                                              and in-house capability do you have?
  issued and A$2.9 billion unfit notes                                                         The same can be said for the environment.
  returned to it. 100% of note orders were    A: We don't have vertical integration when
                                                                                               As a state-owned company, environmental
  delivered on the day requested.             it comes to inks, substrates or foils. But
                                                                                               laws affect us immediately and I would say
                                              we have our own patented pigment-based
  Note Printing Australia (NPA)                                                                that Germany is one of the countries in
                                              features for second or third level security
                                                                                               Europe that is keen to be at the forefront
  NPA delivered 428 million notes to the      for which we offer the whole package – the
                                                                                               of this green movement. We are already
  RBA, up from 228 million in 2017-18,        pigments, sensors, maintenance of these
                                                                                               undergoing refurbishment to adapt to the
  earning it A$108 million compared with      and data management. We produce these
                                                                                               latest laws, and this could be a USP in
  A$82 million the previous year.             ourselves. So whilst we have cooperation
                                                                                               itself, although not necessarily a particularly
  In addition, NPA delivered 46 million       partners, we aren’t just buying everything
                                                                                               visible one.
  banknotes under contract to Papua           in – we develop a lot ourselves.
  New Guinea, Singapore and the               Q: How is your R&D organised?
  Solomon Islands in 2018/19, dealing         A: We have a huge R&D department of
  directly with the respective central        almost 450 people, which are in a support
  banks in those countries.                   function called Technology. BDR is very
                                              much a technology-driven company and
                                              that's a key advantage – particularly as
                                              what they have in mind or are developing
                                              can be adapted from other business units
                                              towards what we need.

8 CURRENCY NEWS | ON THE RECORD
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
MOTION SURFACE – When Micro is Nano
The subject of the Banknote of the
Month in the September issue of
Currency News was the new Aruban
florin series, the first circulating notes
to feature Crane Currency’s MOTION®
SURFACE® technology.
It was 15 years ago that MOTION® first
burst onto the scene, at the Optical
Document Security conference in 2004,
prompting the development of a whole new
range of authentication features based on
micro-optics. To mark this milestone, we
take a closer look at this latest incarnation
of the technology.
When MOTION was first released in
a circulating banknote, the Swedish
1000 kroner in 2006, its unique three-
dimensional, motion effects both surprised
and fascinated central bankers, banknote
designers and the public at large. It also
attracted the attention of physicists,
not least because while the scientific
principle (Moiré magnification) was not
new, the application, material science and
                                                Creating this unique artwork takes hours         At such a scale, the production tolerance
engineering most certainly were.
                                                of computation using state-of-the-art            between the lens and icon are critical;
Today there are a number of banknote            computer processing, which represents a          the smallest misalignment will destroy the
security features that use micro-optics,        major improvement over Crane’s production        effect and distortions must be limited to
but in different ways from the MOTION           of the first MOTION features.                    within nanometers.
technology. And MOTION itself has not
                                                The addition of skilled software engineers       In fact, the only technology currently
remained a one effect, one product
                                                to Crane’s micro-optic technical design          capable of accurately measuring distortion
technology – we had the MOTION®
                                                team has produced proprietary software           is the micro-optics themselves. Inside the
RAPID® thread in 2014. And now MOTION
                                                that has speeded up the process by well          Crane facility, measurement schemes using
SURFACE, a stripe.
                                                over 100,000 times, allowing for more            micro-optics have been developed that
An important visual effect of MOTION            intricate designs and effects and accurate       allow artifacts smaller than 25 nanometers
SURFACE is Topo, which produces a very          renderings of the final product. Were Crane      and distortions less than 10 nanometers to
strong three dimensional effect. The name       to use the same computational software           be visible to the naked eye.
Topo derives from the word topography,          now to render MOTION SURFACE designs,            These tight tolerances drove Crane to
ie. the practice of describing relative         the computer processing time would be            develop customised production equipment
position, elevation and contour of surface      measured in months.                              capable of producing multiple layers of
features. Producing its visual effects on a
                                                Today, by virtue of these advancements           millions of individual micro-optic structures,
security feature thin enough to be applied
                                                in algorithms and computing power, the           while keeping everything precisely aligned
to the surface of a banknote requires
                                                process is so controlled that it allows the      and in specification to the original digital
very specialized materials, equipment
                                                creator to fine tune every characteristic of     rendering. This equipment is required to
and know-how.
                                                an effect. It is possible to revise specific     keep the angular alignment between the
On a typical 10mm wide MOTION                   dimensions, shape, and magnification of          lens and icon layers extremely tight (to
SURFACE stripe, an array of over 3              the moving images. The strong 3D effect          one sixtieth of a degree) while producing
million lenses is aligned horizontally over     and the curved images one sees in the            hundreds of thousands of kilometres of
3 million icons, each of them subtly and        final feature is a result of the combination     material, and billions of precise optical
uniquely altered to achieve the desired         of expertise and equipment which enables         microstructures per second.
effect. The changes in the position of each     every icon to be unique in its size and          The results justify the investment because it
icon are so small as to be unmeasurable         shape from those around it, and to position      enables visual effects that are bold and very
by conventional means, but the three            each precisely under each lens.                  easy to use despite their invisible complexity
dimensional effect of Topo could not be
                                                Once the design of micro-optic icons
produced without this tightly-managed
                                                are created and arrayed into position,
array of iconography.
                                                this master artwork must be delivered to
                                                production. In a similar way that digital
                                                print files are delivered through the modern
                                                process of pre-press in security printing, the
                                                artwork for the MOTION icon and lens array
                                                is created using proprietary technology that
                                                ensures no distortions or inaccuracies are
                                                introduced into the process.

                                                                                       TECHNOLOGY PROFILE | VOLUME 17 – NO 10 | OCTOBER 2019      9
Glory Buys Majority Stake in Virtual ATM Company - Orell Füssli Security Printing
You can also read