GREATER MEKONG ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - 2020 | H2 - AUSCHAM CAMBODIA

 
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GREATER MEKONG ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - 2020 | H2 - AUSCHAM CAMBODIA
2020 | H2

Greater Mekong
Economic Outlook
Cambodia | Lao | Myanmar | Thailand | Vietnam
GREATER MEKONG ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - 2020 | H2 - AUSCHAM CAMBODIA
Feature note | Mapping the COVID-19 outbreak in the Mekong                                        3

Cambodia | Double whammy in 2020                                                                  9

Lao PDR | Growth hits a speed bump                                                                11

Myanmar | Challenging times ahead                                                                 13

Thailand | An inevitable recession                                                                15

Vietnam | Re-opening for business                                                                 17

Contacts                                                                                          19

Important Notice                                                                                  20

                                         Published 20 May 2020
                 Feedback and enquiries: research@anz.com | Twitter: @ANZ_Research
            This is not personal advice. It does not consider your objectives or circumstances.
                                  Please refer to the Important Notice.
Feature note

                Mapping the COVID-19 outbreak in the Mekong

                  The COVID-19 outbreak in the Greater Mekong region has been well contained, thanks
                  to proactive measures taken by governments. The economic impact domestically from
                  disease containment measures is small compared to the effects from the deepest global
                  recession since the 1930s, called “the Great Lockdown” by the IMF. Policy support has
                  been forthcoming but is still insufficient to offset the massive slump in demand due to a
                  decline in international trade, tourism and FDI flows. Additionally, stimulus sizes differ
                  notably across the Mekong economies, making the prospects of the eventual recovery
                  potentially lopsided. We have revised lower our economic forecasts for the region,
                  expecting growth to fall to historic lows in 2020, with a modest rebound in 2021.

                The COVID-19 pandemic is set to cause the worst global recession since the Great Depression
                of the 1930s. Large swathes of the global economy had been put into what the International
                Monetary Fund (IMF) calls “the Great Lockdown”, halting economic activity. Although some
                countries are starting to lift restrictions, the economic repercussions will linger for some time.

                COVID-19 in Greater Mekong
                Within the Greater Mekong, the number of confirmed cases has been modest compared to
                other ASEAN countries. At the time of writing, Thailand has the highest number in the Mekong
                at 3,033, but this is still less than half that of Malaysia, and significantly less than the 28,794
                cases in Singapore. The total number of cases in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam
                (CLMV) stood at 658 (Figure1).
                Cambodia’s COVID-19 cases were in the single digits until mid-March, when they spiked
                briefly. There have been no new cases since 11 April, according to official data, pointing to a
                flattening of the epidemic curve. However, nearly six provinces continue to send suspected
                samples on a daily basis. Lao PDR has the lowest number of cases in the Greater Mekong,
                with no new infections since 13 April. Myanmar witnessed a steady increase in its case count
                at the end of March, although the number of new cases has fallen significantly since late-April.
                Vietnam’s COVID-19 cases began rising rapidly in early March, leading its Mekong neighbours
                by two weeks. However, they started to decrease by the end of the month, with small
                additions since April. This underlines the ‘flattening of the curve’ in Vietnam as well. Thailand
                saw a sharp rise in cases in late March, but has managed to contain the outbreak since mid-
                April. Its new daily case counts are still in the single digits.
                All in all, the COVID-19 outbreak has been contained in the Greater Mekong. We also note that
                the region’s case fatality rate of 1.7% is substantially lower than the global average of 6.7%.

                  Figure 1. COVID-19 outbreak in the greater Mekong region

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                         3
Feature note

                 Policy response and aid
                 The Mekong governments have taken proactive measures to contain the spread of the
                 coronavirus. Recent research at Oxford University measures how prohibitive such
                 containment strategies have been along seven different parameters, which are then
                 combined into a single Stringency Index for each country (Figure 2). Vietnam was clearly the
                 early responder in implementing a strict containment strategy, while other countries
                 subsequently tightened measures in March when their respective epidemic curves started to
                 steepen.
                 However, Laos and Vietnam have begun easing their restrictions recently while Myanmar has
                 maintained them since mid-April. In Thailand, a gradual reopening of the economy has been
                 underway since 3 May, with ‘low risk’ businesses opening first. Yet, its overall containment
                 strategy remains fairly strict on the Stringency Index. Although Cambodia’s position on the
                 index is not available, the country has kept most restrictions implemented in mid-March,
                 such as the closure of public spaces and restrictions on large gatherings, while the inter-
                 provincial travel ban was lifted on 16 April.

                  Figure 2. Stringency of COVID-19 containment response in Greater Mekong

                The containment responses have also been buttressed with policy support, macro-financial
                measures, and aid/loans from multilateral institutions. Figure 3 summaries the measures
                announced across the Greater Mekong region so far. The magnitude of stimulus plans varies
                notably among the Mekong economies, ranging from less than 0.1% of GDP in Lao PDR to 10%
                of GDP in Vietnam and 16% of GDP in Thailand. On the fiscal front, both spending and non-
                spending measures have been deployed to calibrate support to firms and households. Tax
                concessions, budget spending reallocation, utility bill waivers, income support, direct transfers,
                and moratorium on social security contributions feature prominently on the list.

                On the monetary front, the region’s central banks have undertaken numerous steps to ensure
                sufficient liquidity. Noteworthy ones include outright policy rate cuts, reduction in reserve
                requirement ratios, temporary revisions in liquidity coverage ratios, and subsidised credit
                support to household and affected businesses. On the macro-financial policy front, the
                deadlines for banks to comply with certain regulatory norms have been relaxed in a few
                economies, alongside proposals to restructure banks’ loan portfolio affected by the pandemic.
                Myanmar is also looking at monetising its fiscal deficit and setting up an asset management
                company to deal with stressed assets in the banking industry.

                Aid from multilateral development institutions has also been forthcoming for the region. In
                addition to the World Bank support, the Asian Development Bank has tripled its overall
                COVID-19 support package to USD20bn. Some Mekong economies have received help from
                other countries as well, both in the form of direct monetary aid and assistance with medical
                supplies.

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                       4
Feature note

       Figure 3. Policy measures taken in Greater Mekong to battle COVID-19

                                    Cambodia                   Lao PDR                 Myanmar                   Vietnam                     Thailand
         package

                                    USD2.1bn                   USD3.4mn                ~USD2bn#                  USD26.2bn                   USD82.5bn
          Total

                                    % of GDP=7.8%              % of GDP=
Feature note

                  Measuring the economic costs
                  In a previous note, we argued that the downturn in global trade and tourism due to the
                  COVID-19 will pose a substantial drag on the Greater Mekong’s growth momentum. In
                  addition, a slump in domestic demand due to containment measures will also hurt growth.

                  On the external trade front, we find that Greater Mekong exports are closely tied to the
                  global business cycle (Figure 4). The elasticity between Greater Mekong exports and world
                  industrial production (IP) is quite high, estimated to be in the range of 3-4.5. This implies
                  that a 1% decline in world IP leads to an average 4% decline in Greater Mekong exports,
                  everything else constant. Therefore, a 3% contraction in world GDP in 2020, as forecast by
                  the IMF, could induce an 18% decline in Greater Mekong exports1, according to our
                  estimates. Such a trade downturn in the region is comparable to the slump witnessed
                  during the global financial crisis in 2009.

                  The record dip in the annual growth of the number of goods-carrying vessels (a leading
                  indicator of global trade) indeed warns of the deep contraction in trade mentioned above
                  (Figure 5). Among the Mekong economies, the largest impact will be felt by Vietnam,
                  whose export-to-GDP ratio is nearly 100%, followed by Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR and
                  Myanmar.

Figure 4. Greater Mekong exports and world growth                Figure 5. Global trade stifled

                                                                 3

                  International tourism is the other major casualty of the pandemic. The World Tourism
                  Organisation notes that the global tourism sector has come to a grinding halt, since all
                  countries have implemented travel restrictions in some form. Consequently, the global
                  tourist flow is estimated to fall 60-80% in 2020, jeopardising 100-120 million jobs which
                  are directly dependent on tourism. By March, global tourist flows had already contracted
                  57% y/y; Asia Pacific was the world’s worst hit region (Figure 6).

                  In Greater Mekong, tourism is a booming industry of significant economic importance. As of
                  2018, the region accounted for roughly 4.7% of the world’s total tourist flows, which far
                  exceeds its 1% share in world GDP. Cambodia is the Mekong economy most vulnerable to
                  the drop-off in foreign tourist arrivals, as its travel services exports-to-GDP ratio is the
                  highest, followed by Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, and Myanmar (Figure 7).

 1
   The coefficient of sensitivity between world GDP and IP growth is found to be 1.5. Therefore, -3% y/y world GDP growth
 is equivalent to -3%*1.5 = -4.5% of world IP growth. Therefore, the % impact on CLMV exports = -4.5%*4=~(-)18%.
 ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                               6
Feature note

         Figure 6. Global tourist flows more than halved                                                                                           Figure 7. Importance of international tourism for
                                                                                                                                                   Greater Mekong
                   180

                   160                                                                                                              Middle east

                   140
                                                                                                                                    Africa
                   120
Million tourists

                   100
                                                                                                                                    Americas
                   80

                   60
                                                                                                                                    Asia pacific
                   40                      -57% y/y

                   20                                                                                                               Europe

                    0
                                                                                                 %
                                                       Jun

                                                                         Sep

                                                                                           Dec
                                                             Jul
                                           Apr

                                                                   Aug

                                                                               Oct

                                                                                                     -40    -30    -20   -10    0
                         Jan

                                                 May
                                     Mar

                                                                                     Nov
                               Feb

                                           2019                           2020                             2020 YTD change by region, %

       Source:World Tourism Organisation, ANZ Research

                                                                   The heightened economic uncertainty engendered by COVID-19 can further dry up the global
                                                                   foreign direct investment inflows, which were already under duress due to the US-China
                                                                   trade dispute and geopolitical tensions (Figure 8). Within Greater Mekong, the CLMV sub-
                                                                   group, comprising Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam, has benefitted immensely
                                                                   from FDI inflows. Not only has FDI been an important source of external finance, it plays a
                                                                   crucial crucial in augmenting the novel production capacity in the region. However, given the
                                                                   variations in economic shares of FDI, as well as its key sources and sectors, we expect the
                                                                   negative impact of the overall slowdown in FDI to vary considerably across the economies in
                                                                   the Mekong region (Figure 9).

         Figure 8. Economic uncertainty and global FDI                                                                                              Figure 9. FDI in Greater Mekong

                                                                   Lastly, the inevitable impact on domestic demand from virus containment measures will
                                                                   be fully captured in the GDP data, but with a significant lag. We therefore employ some
                                                                   coincident indicators of activity, such as daily Google mobility reports to get a sense of the
                                                                   situation on a real-time basis.

                                                                   During the month of March, movement restrictions and lockdown conditions were
                                                                   progressively tightened across the Greater Mekong region. By mid-April, mobility around
                                                                   transit stations and workplaces fell as much as 50-70% below their baselines, bringing
                                                                   economic activity to a standstill. However, since then, some progress has been made, most
                                                                   notably in Vietnam. Increasing mobility around transit stations and workplaces suggests
                                                                   that domestic economic activity in Vietnam is on course to normalise much sooner than for
                                                                   the rest. This is in line with its position on the Stringency Index, where Vietnam is seen
                                                                   relaxing its restrictions faster than the others.

                   ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                                                                                        7
Feature note

Figure 10. Mobility at transit stations                                   Figure 11. Mobility at workplaces

                         Bottom line
                         Based on our analysis of growth risks to the Greater Mekong region, we believe that Cambodia
                         faces the most severe challenges overall, followed by Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, and Myanmar
                         (Figure 12). While policy stimulus in each economy will certainly help, it is still insufficient to
                         offset the enormous demand destruction caused by the pandemic, both on the domestic and
                         external fronts. We have accordingly revised our macroeconomic forecasts for the region, as
                         detailed in the country sections that follow. In all, our forecast revisions entail that economic
                         growth in the Greater Mekong will contract 0.8% in 2020, mainly as Thailand’s economic growth
                         is expected to contract by 3.5%. Excluding Thailand, growth in the CLMV economies is set to
                         drop to 3%. Although we expect a recovery in 2021, much of it remains contingent on the pace
                         of normalisation of economic activity worldwide. A second wave of infections, domestically or
                         abroad, will also pose downside risks to our views.

Figure 12. Greater Mekong: growth risk-rank map                            Figure 13. Greater Mekong growth setback in 2020

                                   Trade drag                                                                8
                                   5
                                                                          Weighted average real GDP growth

                                                                                                             7
                                   4
                                                                                                             6
                                   3
                                                                                                             5
                                   2
                                                                                                             4
                                                                                      (%y/y)

                                   1
                                                                                                             3
  Domestic demand drag             0                      Tourism drag
                                                                                                             2

                                                                                                             1

                                                                                                             0

                                                                                                             -1
                                                                                                                  2012   2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019e   2020f    2021f

                                    FDI drag                                                                       Greater Mekong             Greater Mekong exc. Thailand (CLMV)
           Cambodia      Lao PDR      Myanmar   Vietnam        Thailand

Source: Macrobond, Google, ANZ Research                                    Source: Macrobond, ANZ Research
Trade drag measured by goods export to GDP, tourism drag by                Real GDP growth rates weighted using nominal USD denominated
travel services exports to GDP, FDI drag by FDI inflows to GDP, and        GDP shares, last uniformly available for all from the IMF.
Domestic demand drag by average transit and workplace mobility
(% below baseline). Lower rank implies larger drag.

    ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                                                                                8
Cambodia

                Double whammy in 2020

                     The risks from being partially removed from the EU's preferential trade agreement and
                      heightened global and domestic challenges in the wake of COVID-19 will trim
                      Cambodia's GDP growth to 2% in 2020. But we expect a rebound to 5.5% in 2021 as
                      the services sector recover.

                     Inflation is expected to be subdued in both 2020 and 2021 amid weaker growth
                      prospects and subdued commodity prices.

                     Slower revenue collection and increased spending (including on healthcare) will lead to
                      a budget deficit in 2020 from a possible surplus in 2019. Decreased tourism receipts
                      and weaker export growth will see the current account deficit rise to 18.6% of GDP in
                      2020.

                Macroeconomic outlook
                After averaging close to 7% GDP growth per annum in the last five years, we forecast
                Cambodia’s growth to fall sharply to 2% in 2020 mainly due to coronavirus-related disruptions
                on the domestic economy and subdued exports amid the global slowdown. The lockdown
                imposed in April and social distancing protocols thereafter, are causing wide-reaching impact on
                the services, construction and manufacturing sectors. Indeed, services will face the largest
                impact, given the fall in tourist receipts (tourism constitutes 16% of GDP growth). Industry
                growth will also decelerate as a global recession looms over Cambodia’s key export partners,
                especially the EU (30% of all exports in 2019) and the US (29%). In addition, droughty weather
                forecasts and the government’s directive to plant only one crop of rice during the dry season this
                year to avert water shortages will cause agricultural growth to remain subdued at 0.8%.

                Another growth headwind is the partial suspension of Cambodia from the EU’s preferential
                Everything But Arms (EBA) Agreement, to be effective from 12 August 2020, unless there are
                objections from the European Parliament and Council. Exports make up roughly 60% of
                Cambodia’s economy, with the EU being its biggest export partner. In 2018, 95% of Cambodia’s
                exports entered the EU via EBA tariff preferences. The new tariffs are expected to impact
                roughly 20% of Cambodia’s exports to the EU (EUR1bn) and will impact certain garment and
                footwear products, all travel goods, and sugar. Although a partial rather than a complete
                suspension will help trim the loss, it is nonetheless a disruptive force on the nation’s exports.
                Cambodia can be fully reinstated into the EBA if it exhibits improvements in democracy and
                human rights, which the EU has said it will continue to monitor.

                We expect growth to rebound to 5.5% in 2021 as coronavirus-related risks subside and the
                services sector recovers. Inflation is well contained and is expected to remain subdued both this
                year and next due to weak growth, contained food prices, and subdued commodity prices.

                A fall in export growth and the decline in tourism revenues will likely see the current account
                deficit rise to 18.6% of GDP in 2020. This is expected to modestly improve in 2021 as export
                growth regains momentum.

                Slower revenue collection amid weaker growth and increased spending on anti-virus campaigns
                as well as tax reliefs to the export sectors to offset the impact from the suspension of EBA trade
                preferences will keep the pressure on the fiscal budget in 2020. However, public external debt is
                still relatively contained at below 30%, which mitigates default risks from higher borrowings.

                Monetary levers have also been deployed to counter the impact from the crisis, including rate cuts
                and liquidity enhancement measures such as lower reserve requirements. In addition, the National
                Bank of Cambodia has been making concerted efforts recently to encourage more transactions in
                the KHR to encourage de-dollarisation. Although it could prove destabilising in the short term, if
                carried out with caution, this will be a reform which will prove to be fruitful in the longer term,
                helping to combat the adverse effects of inflation, vulnerability to outflows, and restore confidence
                in the economy and the currency.

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                          9
Cambodia

 Figure 1. GDP growth will stumble in 2020                     Figure 2. CPI to remain range-bound in 2020

 Figure 3. Tourist arrivals slumped in early 2020              Figure 4. Mobility for basic tasks show marginal
                                                               improvement in May

 Cambodia’s key forecasts
                                              2015      2016        2017     2018    2019e     2020f    2021f
  Real GDP growth (%)                          7.0       7.0         7.0      7.5      7.1      2.0      5.5
   - Agriculture (%)                           0.2       1.3         1.7      1.1      -0.5     0.8      1.8
   - Industry (%)                              9.7       7.7         7.1      9.5      9.0      2.5      6.0
   - Construction (%)                          19.2      21.8        18.0     18.1    17.0      4.5      9.8
   - Services (%)                              7.1       6.8         7.0      6.8      6.2      1.8      5.5
   - Taxes less Subsidies (%)                  8.5       8.1         8.8      8.7      7.8      3.0      6.0
  CPI Inflation (%)                            1.2       3.0         2.9      2.5      1.9      1.9      2.1
  GDP deflator (%)                             1.3       3.4         3.3      3.0      2.1      2.1      2.1
  Current Account Balance (USDbn)              -1.6      -1.7        -1.8     -3.0     -4.7     -5.1     -4.9
   - As % of GDP                               -8.8      -8.6        -8.1    -12.2    -17.6    -18.6    -16.5
  Overall Budget Balance (KHRbn)              -1909      -244        -808     697     5766     -3171    -2441
   - As % of GDP                               -2.6      -0.3        -0.9     0.7      5.3      -2.8     -2.0
  USD/KHR (end of period)                     4,050     4,070       4,033    4,040    4,070    4,100    4,100
  Avg saving deposit rate (%)                  1.43      1.56        1.39     1.17     0.60    0.50     0.50

 Source: IMF, ADB, World Bank, CEIC, Macrobond, ANZ Research

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                    10
Lao PDR

                Growth hits a speed bump

                     We forecast Lao PDR’s GDP growth to slow further to 3% in 2020 owing to coronavirus-
                      related economic disruptions. However, a recovery to 5.6% next year is likely, as the
                      services sector rebounds and electricity production capacity is enhanced.

                     Inflation is expected to average 4% in 2020 on higher food costs as well as higher
                      imported inflation due to a weaker kip. Inflation will likely stay elevated at 4.2% in 2021.

                     Growth weakness in export destinations will continue to keep the current account deficit
                      high in 2020. Meanwhile, economic rebuild post climate change related disasters will keep
                      up the challenge on the fiscal side.

                Macroeconomic outlook
                We now expect GDP growth to further slow to 3% in 2020 from the 5% growth rate estimated
                for 2019, due to COVID-19 related disruptions. While Lao PDR has been relatively immune to the
                outbreak (with a total of 19 infections and zero deaths reported as of 18 May), the lockdown and
                social gathering restrictions implemented since 1 April are likely to have severely impacted
                activity. Even though restrictions have been partly eased from 4 May, it can take months for the
                economy to return to normalcy as social distancing rules persist. The services sector, which
                contributes more than 45% of gross value added, will take the biggest hit, including segments
                like tourism and retail trade. Industry, especially construction-related and agriculture (provided
                there are minimum weather-related disruptions) will help offset a slowdown in H2 2020.

                We estimate GDP growth to bounce to 5.6% in 2021 as services growth recovers. In addition,
                capacity production for electricity will continue to be ramped up, especially in hydropower
                generation and exports, which will be growth accretive. Electricity exports have risen with a
                CAGR of 14% during September 2014-2019.

                Inflation, which has risen sharply in the last six months on higher food prices, will likely stay
                elevated for the rest of the year. We forecast prices to average 4% this year, due to higher food
                and transportation costs. It is likely to remain high in 2021 as a weaker kip vis-à-vis USD and
                THB will keep imported inflation on the costlier side.

                A combination of 1) weaker growth prospects in export destination markets; 2) a slump in
                tourism revenue; and 3) continued deficit in primary income account on repatriation of
                dividends will keep the current account deficit wide at 6.7% of GDP in 2020. It is expected to
                widen further to 7.2% of GDP in 2021 as a revival in economic activity also increases the need
                for higher imports, especially of capital goods and equipment for hydrocarbon and
                infrastructure-related projects (the ‘China-Laos’ Railway project under the Belt and Road
                Initiative is expected to near completion in 2021).

                Slower GDP growth will have a bearing on Lao PDR’s fiscal position, which has remained under
                strain owing to the economic re-build following climate-related challenges in the last two years.
                Agricultural damage to the tune of USD371m and USD380m (~2% of GDP) were caused due
                to weather-related disruptions in 2018 and 2019 respectively, as estimated by the Asian
                Development Bank. In addition, slower revenue collection meant that the fiscal deficit inched
                up to 5% of GDP in 2019. We expect the fiscal deficit to worsen to 5.9% of GDP in 2020 due to
                weaker tax collections, higher outlays on wages and benefits, and high infrastructure spending.
                So far, the government has announced USD13.3m (~0.1% of GDP) of direct fund allocation
                and USD18m in foreign aid by the World Bank to meet COVID-19 risks.

                On the monetary side, although persistent kip depreciation versus both the USD and THB will
                remain a concern, other policy measures will continue to lend support to the economy. Policy rate
                across various tenors was lowered by 100bps in March, bringing the short term lending rate to 3%
                in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. We expect more easing in the near term as
                policymakers deploy both fiscal and monetary tools to help the economy recover.
                This risk of high indebtedness was flagged by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in August
                this year. In addition, higher government spending for flood relief will push out fiscal
                consolidation by a year, with the budget deficit widening to 5.1% of GDP. The high twin deficits
                will continue to restrict overall growth.

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                             11
Lao PDR

 Figure 1. GDP growth to slump in 2020                          Figure 2. Inflation is ticking up due to food

 Figure 3. Crucial for electricity exports to revive            Figure 4. Basic balance is deteriorating

 Lao’s key forecasts
                                              2015      2016        2017     2018     2019e     2020f      2021f
  Real GDP growth (%)                          7.3        7.0        6.9      6.2       5.0      3.0        5.6
   - Agriculture (%)                           3.6        2.8        2.9      1.3      -0.2      1.0        2.9
   - Industry (%)                              4.2       12.9       10.2      4.2       3.8      3.2        5.6
   - Construction (%)                          20.7       8.4       18.0      22.6      6.4      5.1        7.7
   - Services (%)                              8.0        4.7        4.5      6.8       7.2      3.0        6.1
   - Taxes less Subsidies (%)                  11.5       7.8        7.0      6.2       6.5      4.0        5.5
  CPI Inflation (%)                            1.3        1.6        0.8      2.0       3.3      4.0        4.2
  GDP deflator (%)                             2.3        3.0        1.9      1.9       2.6      3.3        3.6
  Current Account Balance (USDbn)              -2.3      -1.4        -1.3     -1.4     -0.9      -1.3      -1.5
   - As % of GDP                              -15.7      -8.7        -7.4     -7.9     -4.5      -6.7      -7.2
  Overall Budget Balance (LAKbn)              -6953     -6662       -7811    -7108    -8209    -10311 -10452
   - As % of GDP                               -5.9      -5.2        -5.5     -4.7     -5.0      -5.9      -5.5
  USD/LAK (end of period)                     8,148     8,184       8,293    8,545     8,885    9,050      9,150
  ST lending rate (end of period)              4.50      4.25       4.00      4.00     4.00      2.00      3.00

 Source: IMF, ADB, World Bank, CEIC, Macrobond, ANZ Research

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                        12
Myanmar

                Challenging times ahead

                     We expect GDP growth to weaken to 2.1% in 2020 largely due to the impact of COVID-19.
                      We forecast a rebound to 6.0% in 2021 buoyed by prospects of major infrastructure projects.

                     Inflation is set to ease in 2020. However, food prices, which have a large weight in the CPI
                      basket, are likely to rise on the back of a prolonged drought.

                     Weaker exports and tourist receipts will lead to a deterioration in the current account deficit.
                      The relatively modest stimulus measures announced so far are unlikely to provide a
                      significant cushion against the slowdown.

                Macroeconomic outlook
                We forecast Myanmar’s GDP growth to fall sharply to 2.1% in 2020 from 6.8% in 2019.
                Disruptions associated with social distancing will hamper domestic growth even as a
                contraction in global growth weighs on the external sector. The addition of Myanmar to the
                list of states that pose a high risk to the EU’s financial system (effective 1 October 2020) and
                upcoming domestic elections in November add to the overall uncertainty.

                The economic impact of social distancing measures remains uncertain. Despite
                recommending increasingly stringent social distancing guidelines, Myanmar has stopped
                short of imposing a nationwide lockdown like some of its neighbours in Asia. Although only
                193 cases of COVID-19 so far, this is at least partly a result of a low testing rate of 268 per
                million as of mid-May. In contrast, Vietnam has a testing rate over 10 times as high during
                the same period.

                Although the economic dataflow for 2020 remains scarce, anecdotal data can provide some
                insights. The Labour Ministry reported that more than 60,000 workers have lost their jobs as
                150 factories were forced to shut down amid supply chain disruptions. Myanmar’s
                manufacturing PMI has been in contractionary territory since February, falling to an all-time
                low of 29.0 in April. Disruptions to the garment sector, which accounts for 13% of the
                country’s total exports, will be particularly painful. Services activity is also expected to
                contract, reflecting the slowdown in tourist arrivals and the associated impact on
                accommodation, food, and retail businesses. Although the direct contribution to GDP from
                tourist receipts is modest, a 23% y/y increase in tourist arrivals in 2019 had provided a
                meaningful boost to the services sector. Finally, agricultural production is also expected to
                decline amid ongoing drought-like conditions and the disruption to planting due to the
                pandemic.

                Looking forward, we expect growth to recover to 6.0% in 2021, as the hangover from the
                pandemic begins to fade and large planned infrastructure projects commence. Slower growth
                in China remains the key medium term risk to growth, as it accounts for more than 30% of
                Myanmar’s exports, 15% of FDI, and 20% of tourist arrivals.

                Following the one-time jump in electricity costs last year, inflation declined to 6.6% y/y in
                March this year. We expect inflation to average 5.9% in 2020, consistent with subdued
                demand and low oil prices. However, we note that a sustained drought could result in higher-
                than-expected food inflation. Food and beverages make up 58.5% of the CPI basket.

                The government announced an economic stimulus package in late April, amounting to
                USD2.0bn (~2.6% of GDP). Although the detailed breakdown is not yet available, the
                package reportedly includes expanded emergency funding for SMEs in the garment and
                tourism sectors as well as cash transfers, food rations, and electricity tariff waivers for
                eligible households. Swift implementation of the above stimulus will be crucial. However, this
                will likely be challenging not least because of the high proportion of households with no
                access to a bank account. At the same time, the central bank has also reduced its reserve
                ratio requirement and relaxed certain regulatory requirements to bolster lending activity.
                Reportedly, the central bank may also seek to monetise the fiscal push. Although this has
                been associated with spurts of inflation in the past, in the current environment, it is arguably
                a necessary policy response to support growth.

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                                 13
Myanmar

 Figure 1. Pandemic to weigh on growth in 2020              Figure 2. Inflation is trending lower in 2020

 Figure 3. PMI points to lower export growth                Figure 4. Activity remains constrained in May

 Myanmar’s key forecasts
                                             2015    2016        2017     2018     2019     2020f    2021f
  Real GDP growth (%)                         8.0     7.0         5.9      6.4      6.8      2.1      6.0
   - Agriculture (%)                          2.8     3.4        -0.5      0.1      1.6      1.0      1.9
   - Industry (%)                            12.1     8.3         8.9      8.3      8.4      2.2      7.5
   - Services (%)                             9.1     8.7         8.1      8.7      8.3      2.6      6.8
  CPI Inflation (%)                          10.2     6.9         4.6      6.9      8.8      5.9      6.5
  GDP deflator (%)                            9.7     6.7         4.8      6.6      8.5      5.7      6.4
  Current Account Balance (USDbn)            -2.8     -1.8       -4.5     -2.1     -1.9      -3.8     -3.5
   - As % of GDP                             -4.8     -2.8       -6.8     -3.0     -2.6      -4.0     -3.7
  Overall Budget Balance (MMKbn)             -782    -3,005     -1,893   -3,171   -4,303   -6,791   -7,340
   - As % of GDP                             -1.1     -3.8       -2.0     -3.0     -3.5      -4.9     -4.6
  USD/MMK (end of period)                    1,310   1,358      1,362     1,534    1,477    1,500    1,600
 Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, CEIC, ANZ Research

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                     14
Thailand

                An inevitable recession

                     The combination of risks from COVID-19 related disruptions and a severe drought will
                      compound growth headwinds in 2020.

                     This will also amplify deflationary risks. We forecast headline inflation to contract 0.5% in 2020.
                      Prices will moderately recover in 2021 as growth rebounds.

                     Fiscal and monetary policy are at the forefront of fighting the current economic crisis. Yet,
                      a recession this year is inevitable.

                Macroeconomic outlook
                We maintain our forecast for Thailand’s economy to contract by 3.5% in 2020 after a 2.4%
                expansion in 2019. GDP declined 1.8% in Q1, with sub-par performance in external demand.
                Various indicators, alongside the stringency of social containment policies, suggest that growth
                has weakened further in Q2. The business sentiment index slumped to an all-time low of 32.6
                in April, consumer confidence surveys sank to rock-bottom, and the manufacturing PMI
                contracted to a record-low of 36.8. Meanwhile, the tourism sector continues to be hit hard by
                the ban on incoming flights, which was extended till 31 May. Tourist arrivals had already
                declined 76.4% y/y in March. We estimate that if incoming tourists tumbled by 50% in 2020,
                headline GDP growth will slump to -5.6%. It is highly possible that tourism flows will not
                recover in the near term.

                In addition, export growth will take a blow as global growth is estimated to contract 3% this
                year. While customs export growth has held up in Q1, it is expected to be weaker in Q2 and Q3
                due to a slump in demand from key export markets. Lastly, a non-virus related headwind that
                has emerged is the drought which is expected to last until July, posing a drag on agricultural
                output and incomes. The agricultural industry generates 30% of Thailand’s employment. Local
                reports suggest that water shortages have already impacted the country’s sugar and rice
                production.

                All in all, this unusually challenging growth environment also risks morphing into deflation.
                Headline CPI contracted for the second consecutive month in April; core CPI is also inching
                lower. We forecast this trend to persist in the coming months, with overall inflation averaging -
                0.5% in 2020. Inflation is expected to pick up to modest levels in 2021 as growth rebounds.

                Policymakers have deployed both monetary and fiscal to offset the effects of the pandemic.
                Including the third stimulus package announced in April (called Phase 3), total COVID-19
                related fiscal support stands at USD82.5bn, or 15.6% of GDP. This includes THB1trn of bond
                issuance to shore up the economy and THB900bn from the central bank in the form of soft
                loans to small and medium enterprises and a managed corporate bond fund to keep liquidity
                flush. In addition, the Cabinet has also approved a bill for the redistribution of the THB3.2trn
                budget (passed in February this year) to the House and Senate for approval when parliament
                re-opens in June. It is expected that expenditure related to the budget will be trimmed and the
                proceeds (~THB100bn) will be also expedited towards COVID-19 relief. Given the sharp
                increase in expenditure than earlier anticipated, the fiscal deficit is expected to widen
                significantly this year.

                The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has cut the benchmark policy rate twice this year, to 0.75%. We
                expect one more cut to 0.50%. However, given that the benchmark rate already stands quite
                low, the central bank will likely continue to utilise other policy tools in its effort to support the
                economy. The crux of this is to continue to ensure sufficient liquidity in the system — be it in
                the bond market (commercial banks can now use investment grade bonds as collateral to
                borrow from the central bank) or mutual funds. Unfortunately, the scale of the shock to growth
                is such that despite all policy guns blazing, a recession looks inevitable this year.

                We forecast that the hit from exports and services will likely narrow the current account
                surplus to 3.4% of GDP in 2020. Current low oil prices are insufficient to offset the impact from
                weaker revenues from the export of goods and services.

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                                15
Thailand

 Figure 1. A looming recession                                 Figure 2. Inflation has turned negative

 Figure 3. Arrivals at Thailand’s airports have                Figure 4. Despite a decrease in active cases,
 plunged in 2020                                               general mobility is far from returning to normal

 Thailand’s key forecasts
                                                2015      2016       2017      2018       2019      2020f       2021f
  Real GDP growth (%)                            3.1       3.4        4.1       4.2        2.4       -3.5        4.0
   - Private Consumption (%)                     2.6       2.9        3.1       4.6        4.5       -1.0        2.5
   - Public Consumption (%)                      2.5       2.2        0.1       2.6        1.4       3.7         3.0
   - Investment (%)                              4.4       2.9        1.8       3.8        2.2       -0.3        3.6
   - Inventories/errors (ppt contb.)            -0.6       -1.8       2.2       3.5       -1.7       -0.1        0.2
   - Exports (%)                                 1.3       2.7        5.2       3.3       -2.6      -13.3        9.5
   - Imports (%)                                 0.0       -1.0       6.2       8.3       -4.4       -9.5        8.2
  Headline Inflation (%)                        -0.9       0.2        0.7       1.1        0.7       -0.5        0.3
  Core Inflation (%)                             1.0       0.7        0.6       0.7        0.5       0.0         0.3
  Current Account Balance (USD bn)              27.8       43.4      43.9       28.5      37.2      16.4        20.4
   - As % of GDP                                 6.9       10.5       9.6       5.6        6.8       3.4         3.9
  Overall Budget Balance (THB bn)*             -394.4    -395.6     -536.5    -483.0     -503.0    -645.7       -577.5
   - As % of GDP                                -2.9       -2.8      -3.5       -3.0      -3.0       -4.0        -3.5
  USD/THB (end of period)                      35.84      35.40     32.94      32.83     30.27      33.00       31.00
  BoT Policy Rate (end of period)               1.50       1.50      1.50       1.75      1.25      0.50        0.50
 Note: 2020f budget deficit numbers are under review following the fiscal announcements made in recent weeks.
 * FY is for 1 October to 30 September
 Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, TDRI, IMF, ANZ Research

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                                 16
Vietnam

                Reopening for business

                   Vietnam’s exposure to global trade and tourism as well as its anti-virus measures will see
                    growth slow to 3.3% in 2020. However, the latest data suggest a fairly successful re-opening
                    of the economy.

                   Inflation will remain subdued due to weaker growth prospects and lower crude oil prices.

                     The current account will likely shift into a deficit in 2020 before recovering next year. Based
                      on the fiscal stimulus announced, we expect the deficit to rise to 5.7% of GDP in 2020.

                Macroeconomic outlook
                Although Vietnam’s deep integration into the global economy over the last decade has generated
                impressive growth rates, it has also made the economy susceptible to external shocks. With
                exports accounting for nearly 100% of nominal GDP in 2019 and the fixed direct investment (FDI)
                reliant manufacturing and construction sectors contributing 26% of employment, it is no surprise
                that Q1 GDP slipped to 3.8% y/y amid the COVID-19 outbreak, marking its slowest pace since
                2013. The slowdown was broad-based, with declines seen in all sectors.

                 Early indicators point to subdued activity in April due to ongoing travel restrictions, strict social
                 distancing rules, and weak external demand. For instance, industrial production in April was
                 11.4% lower than a year ago, while manufacturing PMI retreated to 32.7 from 41.9 in March, an
                 all-time low. Similarly, the new export orders index fell to 17.7, pointing to continued weakness
                 in external demand. On the services front, international tourist arrivals in April were 98% lower
                 than a year ago. The government is reportedly considering a partial re-opening of some
                 international air routes from 1 June. However, a return to the 2019 average of 1.5m visitor
                 arrivals every month is a distant prospect at the moment.

                 That said, there are still reasons to be optimistic. Firstly, Vietnam has reported 324 confirmed
                 COVID-19 cases so far and no deaths, a remarkable feat for a country which shares a long border
                 with China. This is in part thanks to its swift response, such as travel restrictions and school
                 closures as early as February. Consequently, Vietnam is also one of the first countries to re-open
                 its economy, lifting nationwide restrictions in April, after 22 days. Indeed, public transportation
                 services, including domestic flights, have already resumed across major cities. Secondly,
                 incoming FDI flows have hitherto remained resilient compared to last year. Sustained FDI flows
                 will be crucial for a recovery in manufacturing and construction activity. Lastly, Vietnam’s
                 relatively diverse exports and its participation in several Free Trade Agreements (FTA), most
                 recently the EU-Vietnam FTA, may help it navigate the turbulence in global trade.

                 Headline inflation fell to 2.93% in April amid the sharp plunge in global crude oil compared with
                 its peak at 6.43% y/y in January. Core inflation also decreased to 2.71% y/y from 3.25% during
                 the same period, signalling decreased demand. Based on these factors, we expect inflation to
                 remain contained through 2020. That said, the prices of certain food items may remain volatile.

                 We expect Vietnam’s current account to shift to a modest deficit of 1.1% of GDP in 2020, with
                 tourist receipts, exports, and FDI inflows under downward pressure. However, this may see a
                 reversal in the following year. On the fiscal front, the government’s deficit target of 3.4% in 2020
                 looks optimistic, in our view. Revenues will likely undershoot the target due to the hit to GDP.
                 Meanwhile, expenditures are set to rise as the government has announced stimulus worth ~10%
                 of GDP (cumulatively). The overall package includes direct cash handouts, tax concessions and
                 bill waivers which will impact the fiscal deficit, as well as moratoriums on interest payments
                 which would not. Overall, we expect the deficit to rise to 5.7% of GDP.

                The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has also done its part, cutting its discount rate by a total of
                100bps since March, in line with the fiscal push. We expect the central bank to pause and assess the
                impact of the recent cuts. Given the marginal increases in new infections in recent weeks and
                gradually re-opening of the economy, the central bank may choose to preserve its ammunition for
                now, instead focusing on macroprudential measures to support lending.

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                                17
Vietnam

 Figure 1. Broad-based slowdown in 2020                         Figure 2. PMI points to near-term export weakness

 Figure 3. FDI inflows remain resilient so far                  Figure 4. Activity is resuming across most categories

 Vietnam’s key forecasts
                                              2015       2016      2017      2018      2019       2020f    2021f
  Real GDP growth (%)                           6.7       6.2       6.8       7.1          7.0     3.3      7.4
   - Agriculture (%)                            2.4       1.4       2.9       3.8          2.0     1.5      2.5
   - Industry (%)                               9.4       7.1       7.8       8.8          8.9     4.5      9.0
   - Construction (%)                          10.8      10.0       8.7       9.2          9.1     3.0      9.0
   - Services (%)                               6.3       7.0       7.4       7.0          7.3     2.8      8.0
   - Taxes less Subsidies (%)                   5.5       6.4       6.3       6.1          6.5     4.5      6.0
  CPI Inflation (%)                             0.6       1.9       3.5       3.5          2.8     2.7      3.0
  GDP deflator (%)                             -0.2       1.1       4.1       3.4          1.8     1.8      2.6
  Current Account Balance (USDbn)              -2.0       3.0       -1.7      5.8          13.1    -2.9     7.0
   - As % of GDP                               -1.1       1.5       -0.7      2.4          5.1     -1.1     2.3
  Overall Budget Balance (VNDtrn)              -179      -161      -174      -204      -209       -362     -294
   - As % of GDP                               -4.3      -3.6       -3.5      -3.7         -3.4    -5.7     -4.2
  USD/VND (end of period)                     22,485    22,761    22,698    23,175    23,173      23,500   23,540
  Discount Rate (end of period)                4.50      4.50       4.25     4.25          4.00    3.00     3.00

 Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, CEIC, Ministry of Finance Vietnam, ADB, IMF, ANZ Research

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                                            18
Contacts

    ANZ Research
    Khoon Goh                  Head of Asia Research   Singapore   Khoon.Goh@anz.com
    Arun Navaratna             Senior Economist        Bengaluru   Arun.Navaratna@anz.com
    Rini Sen                   Economist               Bengaluru   Rini.Sen@anz.com
    Mustafa Arif               Economist               Bengaluru   Mustafa.Arif@anz.com
    Dhiraj Nim                 FX Analyst              Bengaluru   Dhiraj.Nim@anz.com

ANZ Greater Mekong Outlook | 20 May 2020                                                    19
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