Horizon Cremation Ltd The Need for a Crematorium in Tandridge - March 2020 Oxted Crematorium, Barrow Green Road, Oxted - Tandridge District Council
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Horizon Cremation Ltd Oxted Crematorium, Barrow Green Road, Oxted The Need for a Crematorium in Tandridge March 2020
Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 1 2 About Horizon .................................................................................................................................... 3 3 Cremation in the UK: History & Future ............................................................................................... 4 4 The Need In & Around Tandridge - Methodology ............................................................................... 8 5 Quantitative Need In & Around Tandridge ........................................................................................ 16 6 Qualitative Need .............................................................................................................................. 25 7 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 36
1 Executive Summary
1.1 Horizon Cremation builds and operates crematoria in areas of the country where current facilities are
over-stretched. The firm has submitted a planning application for a new crematorium off the A25,
between Oxted and Godstone.
1.2 Cremation became particularly popular following the Second World War. We now cremate 81 percent
of people in England, a trend that is increasing. With the number of deaths set to rise over the next
thirty years, the demand for new crematoria will continue to rise.
1.3 In assessing the need for a crematorium in Tandridge, this document looks at both quantitative and
qualitative considerations. Quantitative issues have an automatic effect on qualitative factors, so
both should be assessed.
1.4 The quantitative analysis is based upon the assumption, widely accepted and supported in previous
planning appeals, that an acceptable catchment of a crematorium is a thirty-minute drive time at
cortege speed and a cortege drives at about two-thirds the speed of normal traffic.
1.5 The analysis assesses the degree to which the proposal brings a crematorium within reach of people
who are currently more than a 30-minute drive away from an existing facility. The population living in
the north of Tandridge District and those living in a significant area to the east (accounting for some
2,600 deaths per year) are currently outside a 30-minute drive of a crematorium. The existence of a
significant population who live outside the catchment of a crematorium has been recognised at appeal
as evidence of need.
1.6 Building the crematorium off Barrow Green Road in Tandridge will bring a crematorium within a 30-
minute drive for the first time for a significant population in this area, amounting to some 1,700 deaths
per year.
1.7 The capacity of a crematorium is calculated by multiplying the number of services per day by the
number of working days. It assumes that the ‘Practical Capacity’ is limited by mourners’ desires to
avoid holding services at the beginning and end of the day. It uses appeal findings that a ‘Qualitative
Standard’ for a crematorium should be 80 percent of the Practical Capacity to accommodate the
seasonality of deaths.
1.8 Surrey and Sussex Crematorium in Crawley undertook an average of 3,054 cremations between 2015
and 2018, meaning it operated at 81% of its practical capacity and 101% of its Quantitative Standard.
1.9 Randalls Park Crematorium in Leatherhead undertook 2,216 cremations between 2015 and 2018,
meaning it operated at 110% of its practical capacity and 137% of its Quantitative Standard.
1.10 Sussex and Kent Crematorium in Royal Tunbridge Wells undertook an average of 2,418 cremations
between 2015 and 2018, meaning it operated at 120% of its practical capacity and 150% of its
Quantitative Standard.
1.11 The failures of just one of these to meet these tests would be sufficient to show need. Here all three
are missing the standards agreed at previous planning appeals.
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1.12 We then consider Qualitative Need. We have considered the length of time each Crematorium offers
for a standard service. The desired amount of time is at least 40-45 minutes with best practise moving
to 45 minutes. Surrey and Sussex at Crawley and Sussex and Kent Crematorium at Royal Tunbridge
Wells both offer 45 minutes and so meet this test, but Randalls Park at Leatherhead offers mourners
a standard service of only 30 minutes which includes time for mourners to enter and exit the chapel.
This is a factor associated with being unable to cope with demand.
1.13 We have looked at the pricing policy of local crematoria and noted the conclusions of the Competition
and Markets Authority whose research showed that prices are higher when crematoria are more than
a 30-minute drive time apart. The prices of the Randalls Park and Surrey and Sussex Crematoria
are the highest charged in the country. Both are operated by the same company: Dignity PLC.
1.14 We have visited all three facilities and recorded our impressions of each. All three have good and
caring staff, but they were all built in the late 1950s and early 1960s and are showing their age. We
have considered their levels of parking, the quality of their grounds, their acceptability in a secular age
and their accessibility. All three have problems that would not be acceptable in a modern purpose-
built facility.
1.15 However, one of the three, Randalls Park in Leatherhead has a significant issue that seems difficult
to solve. It floods and has been out of action following flooding events for three significant periods in
the last 10 years and is out of action at the time of writing. Quite how the issues the crematorium
faces can be solved on a site that is prone to flooding is difficult to see.
1.16 In conclusion, there is a clear and pressing need for a new crematorium in this area.
2|Page
2 About Horizon
2.1 Horizon Cremation builds and operates crematoria in areas of the country where current facilities are
over-stretched.
2.2 The company was set up in 2016 by its founders, Stephen Byfield and Jeremy Hamilton. Both were
motivated to get involved in the industry by poor experiences of their local crematoria and each brings
significant commercial and operational experience. The business is backed by Maven Capital
Partners.
2.3 The founders have looked at every aspect of crematorium design and operations with a fresh eye to
improve the experience for mourners – from the design of the buildings, to the quality and training of
staff, to the use of the very best, non-polluting, equipment.
2.4 We want each crematorium to fit into its local community. We hire local people, get involved with
local charities and design our buildings so architecture and materials reflect the local vernacular.
2.5 In 2018, Horizon opened the doors of its first site. Built in a regional park, the Clyde Coast and
Garnock Valley Crematorium has stunning views across the Firth of Clyde to the peaks of Arran. The
facility was recently voted ‘Best Crematorium in Scotland’ at the Scottish Funeral Awards even though
it had been open for barely 18 months.
2.6 Since then two new planning permissions have followed; work is underway building a new
crematorium in Cannock, to the north of Birmingham and will start soon on a site in East Renfrewshire,
south west of Glasgow.
2.7 The firm is submitting a planning application for a new crematorium on the A25 between Oxted and
Godstone. It is a perfect example of what we want to achieve – a well located site giving us the
opportunity to build something special that will meet a tangible local need.
3|Page
3 Cremation in the UK: History & Future
3.1 In 1885, Mrs Jeanette Pickersgill became the first person in the UK to be cremated in modern times.
Hers was the first cremation in the newly-built Woking Crematorium. Take-up was not immediate,
though. That year, three people were cremated, out of 596,000 deaths.
3.2 Cremation took time to become popular in the UK and for the first half of the twentieth century fewer
than 10 percent of the population was cremated. However, the popularity of cremation is closely
allied to religious and cultural factors1 and after World War Two, it rose steadily, mirroring a gradual
decline in religious conviction, a reduction in costs and a shortage of burial space. By 1960, a
cremation followed one third of all funerals and the trend continued so that by 1980s, nearly 70 percent
of people were cremated.
3.3 The rise in cremation rates prompted the building of new crematoria. In 1950, there were 58
crematoria; in 1960, there were 148 crematorium facilities; and by 1970 there were 206. The vast
bulk of these were built by local authorities. However, a slow-down in construction followed as local
authority finances came under pressure.
3.4 In the 1980s and 1990s, the death rate began to level off. The population was still increasing, but
medical advances had raised life expectancy and, consequently, the number of people dying annually
dropped, as people lived longer.
3.5 This trend continued into the new millennium. The population rate in the UK continued to rise steadily,
yet the death rate, which levelled out in the last quarter of the twentieth century at around 660,000
deaths a year, fell to around 560,000 deaths per year in the first decade of the new century.
3.6 Despite this, the number of cremations continued to rise. The popularity of cremation has risen
gradually but steadily, and in 2018, the number of cremations in the UK was 481,712; 78% of deaths
(81% in England and Wales).
Looking Ahead
3.7 It seems that the relatively benign period we have been in over the last thirty years is about to change.
Indeed, we are at a tipping point which will see a significant increase in the need for new crematoria.
3.8 The ONS predicts that the death rate is about to increase significantly. Because of medical advances,
the death rate has been static or in decline since the mid-1970s despite significant population
increases. In short, the baby boomer generations lived longer than those that preceded them. As a
result, fewer people died each year.
1 For instance, in Japan where most people relate to the religions of Shintoism or Buddhism which favour cremation, the
cremation rate is nearly 100 percent.
4|Page
3.9 However, the baby-boomer cohort is beginning to die, which will result in a steady and significant
increase in the death rate over coming decades. This trend has already begun. In 2010, 560,000
people died in the UK. By 2014, that number was up to 574,000. By 2018, it was 616,0002 meaning
we have seen an increase of over 50,000 deaths per year in the UK in just eight years.
3.10 In 2016, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) published its National Population Projections. They
project an increase in the death rate of 23 percent over the coming 20 years. If the ONS is correct,
nearly 800,000 people a year will die annually in the UK in 20 years’ time. Seventeen years later, by
2051, it will be 900,000 per year.
UK Deaths (thousands)
Source: ONS National Population Projections 2016
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
3.11 Of course, an increased death rate alone does not automatically mean an increase in the need for
new crematoria. However, it also seems likely that the gradual increase in the popularity of cremation
will continue for the foreseeable future.
3.12 Much of this seems to be driven by cost. SunLife undertakes an annual report into the components
that make up the total cost of dying. Analysis of their reports from 2007-2017 shows that there has
been a substantial increase in both burials and cremations over the last decade, but the cost of burials
increased at a faster rate than that of cremations. In 2018, a typical cremation cost £832 which was
just 38 percent of the cost of a burial (£2,174).
2 The Cremation Society of Great Britain International Statistics 2010-2018
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Relative Cost of UK Burials over Cremations
Source: SunLife Cost of Dying 2019
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Burial Cost Cremation Cost
3.13 The high cost of burials seems to be a simple result of a shortage of supply. Burials are very land-
hungry and, in much of the UK, the cost of land restricts the provision of new burial grounds.
3.14 The upward trend in the cremation rate does not seem to have peaked, as shown by comparisons of
international cremation rates. As the chart below shows, the UK is not in the top ten of countries
worldwide that cremate and is only the fifth biggest cremator in Europe. Cremation is greatly
influenced by cultural factors and southern European states had relatively low cremation rates until
the Catholic Church allowed cremation in 1963. Since then they have been catching up rapidly.
International Cremation Rates 2016
Source: Cremation Society of Great Britain
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Trinidad and…
Taiwan
Hong Kong
USA
Germany
France
Poland
Romania
Switzerland
Hungary
Serbia
Denmark
Thailand
Eire
Japan
South Korea
United Kingdom
Luxembourg
Portugal
Spain
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Cuba
Ghana
New Zealand
Slovenia
Canada
Peru
Belgium
Austria
Iceland
Italy
Zimbabwe
Mongolia
Czech Republic
Singapore
Netherlands
Andorra
6|Page
3.15 What do these trends mean for the provision of crematoria in the coming years? In 2017, 467,748
cremations were conducted in 289 facilities across the UK: an average of 1,618 cremations per
crematorium3. Let us assume that the ONS projections for deaths in the UK over the next 18 years
are correct and that, in 2037, there will be 777,000 deaths. If we further assume that the historic
compound annual increase in the cremation rate of 0.33% 4 continues for the next 20 years, this will
result in a cremation rate of 82.3% of all deaths by 2037.
3.16 If no new crematoria are built, this would mean that the average number of cremations being
conducted in 2037 would be 2,205 per crematorium. This represents a rise of 36 percent in demand
over the next 18 years alone.
3.17 We believe that the UK faces a compelling need to build new crematoria to keep pace with increasing
death rates and the rising popularity of cremation. Those of us concerned about the everyday
experience many mourners have of UK crematoria would contend that we need still more provision,
so we can reduce the pressure on facilities that are struggling to cope and improve the built
environment in which we mourn and celebrate the lives of those who have gone.
3 Cremation Society of Great Britain, Table of Cremations 2017
4 Cremation Society of Great Britain, Table of Cremations 2017
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4 The Need In & Around Tandridge - Methodology
4.1 There are two broad methodological approaches that together ascertain whether there is need for a
new crematorium. The first is a quantitative analysis of whether current providers are meeting need
and will be able to in the future. The second is a qualitative assessment of the quality of facilities,
which looks at factors such as waiting times, service lengths and the everyday experience of mourners.
4.2 In practise, it is difficult to disentangle the impact of qualitative and quantitative factors upon the
experience of crematoria users. A quantitative undersupply of chapel slots has a direct impact on
how long people must wait for a service, how far they must drive to get to a crematorium and the
length of the funeral service. Consequently, an understanding of both the quantitative and the
qualitative need for a proposal is required to reach a valid conclusion.
Drive Times
4.3 Central to an assessment of the need for a crematorium is a calculation of the population within a
reasonable drive time of a proposed site. Several appeal cases 5 have now considered what
constitutes a ’reasonable drive time’ and these have resulted in an accepted methodology for
assessing the size of a crematorium’s catchment area.
4.4 Central to this methodology is the recognition that a funeral cortege should not have to travel more
than 30 minutes from the address of the deceased (from where most of them depart). Appeals have
considered market research into the attitudes of the public about what constitutes an acceptable
journey time to a funeral at a crematorium and found that significant majorities of respondents feel
that journey times of over 30 minutes causes anxiety and distress.
4.5 Also accepted at these appeals is the fact that families driving to funerals do not travel at normal traffic
speeds. Funeral corteges drive slowly as a mark of respect to the deceased, but also to ensure that
family members travelling in a procession behind do not get lost and to ensure that the cortege stays
together as they negotiate traffic lights, junctions and roundabouts. Corteges can often stop to allow
the cars within the procession come back together.
4.6 But how fast do corteges travel? The applicant in one of these appeals 6, Westerleigh Group, went
so far as to hire a hearse for several days and recreated several funeral routes to assess how much
slower corteges travel than normal traffic. They concluded that cortege journey times are 1.8 to 2
times longer than normal journey times.
5 For instance, see Appeal Reference APP/C3530/W/15/3039163 in relation to the appeal by Westerleigh Group - land at
Broad Lane Essington: and Appeal Reference APP/D0840/A/09/2098108 land north of Castle Eden Brewery in County
Durham (APP/C1355/A/14/2221052): and the decision in Burgess v OFT and Austin and Sons – Competition Appeal
Tribunal [2005] Cat 25 Case No 1044/2/1/1104.
6 Appeal Reference APP/C3530/W/15/3039163 in relation to the appeal by Westerleigh Group - land at Broad Lane
Essington
8|Page4.7 Consequently, planning appeals have accepted that corteges travel at about two-thirds the speed of
normal traffic and so thirty-minute drive times based on these speeds are now routinely used to
calculate the drive times when assessing crematoria.
Measuring Capacity
4.8 At its simplest, the capacity of a crematorium is the number of cremations it can perform in a year.
4.9 However, a crematorium has two component parts, both of which affect its capacity: the cremator and
the chapel. The cremation process typically takes between 70 and 90 minutes. Because this is
longer than a typical service, cremations in a busy crematorium can continue later into the day than
services and can sometimes be carried over to be undertaken the following morning.
4.10 The capacity of a chapel, on the other hand is fixed, as services can only be held at times that are
suitable for mourners. When it comes to looking at the capacity of a crematorium, it is the number of
chapels that matters, not the number of cremators.
4.11 The theoretical capacity of a crematorium is, therefore, the total number of services that can be held
over a year, assuming that it operates Monday to Friday excluding bank holidays (giving 252 operating
days per year) between 9am and 5pm.
4.12 The number of services in a day is directly related to the length of time allocated for a service – each
cremation service is referred to as a ‘slot’. Some busy crematoria in the UK, such as Leatherhead
Crematorium, operate slot times of 30 minutes (sometimes even less).
4.13 The professional bodies of the industry believe that a slot time of forty-five minutes should be the
minimum to allow the arrival of the coffin, entrance by mourners, a meaningful service and a
procession out. The Charter for the Bereaved produced by the Institute of Cemetery and Cremation
Management (ICCM) states: “The burial or cremation ceremony should be considered a highly
individual and important occasion. Each funeral should arrive and depart without seeing other
funerals, neither should they be delayed by the late arrival of other funerals. To help achieve this
standard a minimum service time of 40 to 45 minutes should be an objective”. 7 The National
Association of Funeral Directors in evidence given to the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local
Government’s ‘Crematoria Provision and Facilities Review’8 in 2018 stated “gradually crematoria are
reacting to the belief that the 30-40 minute window offered to the bereaved is no longer fit for purpose”.
The Federation of Burial and Cremation Authorities in evidence to the same review said, “we would
hope to see the funeral service intervals set at around 45 minutes giving the mourners a much more
appropriate time during which to say farewell to a loved one.”
4.14 Using a slot time of 40 minutes it is theoretically possible to hold 12 services a day between 9am and
5pm. However, in practise this does not happen. The majority of funerals take place in the middle
of the day between 10.30am and 4.00pm. This is because operating outside these hours:
7Charter for the Bereaved, ICCM. p47. Standards E and F.
8Crematoria Provision and Facilities. Government Response to the Review, Ministry of Housing Communities and Local
Government. pp13-14
9|Page1. requires funeral directors and families to travel to and from services in rush hour traffic conditions.
Driving at cortege speeds through the rush-hour is not popular and, in practise, it is difficult to
keep cortege’s together.
2. Funeral directors require time to prepare for a funeral before a cortege can set off.
3. Early slots mean mourners must travel through rush hour traffic causing stress as they strive to
arrive on time. People travelling from outside the immediate area need time to get to a
crematorium particularly if they are navigating roads they do not know.
4.15 As a result, planning appeals now routinely recognise the concept of these ‘core hours’ 9 when
assessing the capacity of a crematorium. On this basis, the number of slots that can be used for
services during a day is eight and if you operate based on a one-hour slot, the capacity reduces to
six.
4.16 So, the ‘Practical Capacity’ of a crematorium with one chapel is found by multiplying the number of
cremation days (252) by the number of Core Hour slots (8). This results in a figure of 2,016 slots a
year.
4.17 However, this calculation is only part of the story, for two reasons:
1. In practise, it is impossible to fill every Core Hour slot because of the difficulties of co-ordinating
funeral directors, families and celebrants with the crematorium’s available slots
2. Death rates throughout the year are not even but follow well marked seasons. There is normally
a large bulge of deaths in the winter months.
4.18 This reality has been established at appeal. In particular, Mrs Justice Patterson when reviewing a
Judicial Review claim against a crematorium that had been granted permission in Gedling upheld the
view of the planning officer, who had applied an annualised figure based on a peak month in which
capacity was 20 percent higher than the average for the year. Mrs Justice Patterson said,
“As the claimant recognises, the capacity of a crematorium is fixed. To provide for sufficient
capacity in the peak month or months the crematorium required will have the same capacity
throughout the year. The use of an uplift figure was appropriate for the reasons set out
above. If a figure for a month of lesser demand was used, then there will be insufficient
capacity for the peak month of January.”10
9 See the following appeal decisions: Halstead Paragraph 23APP/G2245/A/13/2210128 of February 2014: Cambourne
Paragraphs 23 and 49 of APPDO840/A/09/2098108, August 2009: Swanwick Paragraph 31 of APP/M1005/A/12/218880
July 2013
10 Timmins, R (on the application of) v Gedling Borough Council and Anor, Court of Appeal – Administrative Court, 9
February 2016 [2016] EWHC 220 (Admin)
10 | P a g e4.19 Consequently, the now recognised concept of the ‘Quantitative Standard’ of a crematorium has been
established. This states that a crematorium is operating above capacity (over its Quantitative
Standard) if it is operating a single chapel at more than 80 percent of its Practical Capacity. The use
of the 80 percent figure to establish the Quantitative Standard was tested in an appeal decision in
South Staffordshire. The Inspector wrote:
“The parties agree that the best measure for assessing whether a crematorium is meeting a
quantitative standard is its practical capacity in a peak month. In 2015, Bushbury operated
at 115% of practical capacity in a peak month. The Council accepts that operating above
80 percent of practical capacity places a crematorium under pressure to offer a cremation
service that meets an unacceptable quantitative standard.”11
4.20 Thus, the Quantitative Standard for capacity of a single chapel is 1,613 cremations a year.
4.21 The failure of a crematorium to meet its Quantitative Standard results inexorably in a diminution of the
quality of the experience for mourners. Crematoria operating above their Quantitative Standard can:
1. encourage people to take slots outside the Core Hours,
2. reduce the length of slots, or
3. spread the load in busy times by delaying services causing families to wait until slots are available.
Catchment Analysis
4.22 We have also analysed need using a Catchment Analysis. This has been undertaken by Carter
Jonas LLP, led by Chartered Geographer Andy Williams FRGS, who has over 20 years of experience
in geospatial analysis for decision making.
4.23 We have used the analysis to assess two things:
• Whether the building of a new crematorium will bring new people into the catchment of a
crematorium who are currently more than a thirty-minutes drive of a facility and, if so, how many.
• How many people would choose a new crematorium over an existing provider (what would be,
(to use a retail term), the ‘trade diversion’.
4.24 The system used was ArcGIS from the world’s leading GIS provider ESRI, population and death data
were from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). To calculate catchments based on drive time, the
road network was Ordnance Survey’s highways data set which incorporates the integrated transport
network and urban paths. Impedance values are based on the average time to pass along a road
segment by car users of Tom Tom satellite navigation devices. The network and the impedance
values operate together in ArcGIS service area solver tool.
11 Appeal reference APP/C3430/W/15/3430/W/15/3039163 in relation to an Appeal by Westerleigh Group following refusal
of application 14/00906/FUL, land off Broad Lane Essington. Decision issued 6th November 2017.
11 | P a g eVariations in Death Rate
4.25 The office for National Statistics (ONS) produces annual figures for deaths by area of usual residence.
These show local variations in death rate resulting from demographic and environmental factors; for
example, average age and age distribution, alongside diet and air quality. When predicting future
demand for cremations these local variations can make a significant difference, in 2016 the UK death
rate was 9.1 deaths per 1,000, but the district death rate varied from 3.5 to 15.3. Carter Jonas
methodology accounts for local variations in death rate and population density.
Service Areas
4.26 In drive time analysis the service area is an area around a facility that can be reached within a given
time. For analysis of a single facility in isolation, the outer edge of the service area would be an
isochrone. Figure 1 shows the 30-minute isochrones around the proposed crematorium for a standard
car and for a funeral cortege travelling at 2/3rds of the speed.
4.27 In circumstances where multiple facilities operate and it is important to identify the nearest facility for
every resident, then a set of non-overlapping service areas is created. In this case the bounding line
of the service area is not necessarily an isochrone. The concept can be further explained: if two people
leave facility A and Facility B simultaneously and each drives towards the other’s origin along the
shortest route, then they will meet at a place which is equal time from each facility. The midpoint
12 | P a g eFigure 1 Barrow Green Road catchments - Constrained versus unconstrained. Each person in the yellow area lives
nearer to Barrow Green Road than any other Crematorium. A person living in the yellow area may reach other
facilities within 30 minutes
between A-B may be 15 minutes, but the time between A-C, A-D and A-E may be 17, 19, and 22
minutes respectively; the bounding edge of facility A’s service area is not an isochrone. Exceptionally,
if A is far enough away from all the other facilities that you could drive 30 minutes in any direction
without coming to another facility, then its bounding edge would be a 30 minute isochrone.
4.28 In the absence of other known gravitational factors, it is assumed that each deceased would be taken
to the nearest facility to their home location, and so a set of non-overlapping polygons, or unique
catchments, was produced with a maximum drive time of 30 minutes at cortege speed. Figure 2 shows
the unique catchment of the existing crematoriums with an overlay to show the effect of adding a
crematorium at Barrow Green Road.
13 | P a g eMotorways
4.29 It is not normal practise for Funeral Directors to use motorways when taking a cortege to a funeral,
therefore motorways have been excluded from the road network when calculating the constrained
catchment for crematoria.
MAUP and Edge Effects
4.30 Having defined service areas for each crematorium we need to calculate the number of deaths within
that boundary. A classic problem of geography is called Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP),
where statistical bias is created by aggregating point data into districts. To count the number of deaths
that occur in a catchment it is desirable to have the deaths recorded as close to individual points as
possible; in reality, it is accepted that individual points would give away personal data so aggregation
to some level is expected.
4.31 The ONS records the number of deaths in England and Wales by area of usual residence at Lower
Super Output Area (LSOA) level. Previously, deaths had been recorded at district level while
population is recorded using the more granular geography of the census areas. Part of the census
geography; LSOA are designed to contain the same number of households and are roughly equivalent
in size to postcode sectors (AB1 2XX) although there are 11,211 postcode sectors and 34,753 LSOA.
Being smaller in size it is easier to fit whole LSOA within the bounding line of a service area, whereas
districts would be bisected to a greater extent.
4.32 Even with the lowest level of aggregation, it is inevitable that there will be some edge effects, that is
where the bounding line of the service area intersects the bounding line of a district. As the whole
district represents one data point, this presents the problem of how to deal with apportionment either
side of the intersection. Two possible solutions are 1) Create two data points by splitting the data in
proportion to the slivers of area that fall either side of the line; 2) Allocate the data point to one side or
the other. Provided that the two datasets have been generated independently so as to mitigate MAUP
then there may be an assumption that an individual catchment will have losses and gains that balance
out. In this instance it was preferable to choose to allocate the data to whichever catchment the
centroid of the LSOA was within. The reasons for this choice were computational ease and clarity,
plus statistical accuracy in that the global number of deaths would be preserved exactly and expressed
in whole numbers.
14 | P a g eFigure 2 Edge Effects – Example showing which LSOA are counted within catchment based on where the centroid falls in
relation to the bounding edge of the service area.
15 | P a g e5 Quantitative Need In & Around Tandridge
5.1 How effectively do existing Crematoria in our area of search meet these tests?
Are Existing Crematoria at or over Capacity?
5.2 Tandridge District Council has no crematoria within its boundaries. Indeed, there are no crematoria
in Reigate and Banstead to the west, none in Sevenoaks to the east (although a permission was
granted in 2014, see below) and none in Mid Sussex to the South. Tandridge is a rural district with
no single large town. The bulk of the population lives in the north of the district with the three largest
towns being Caterham, Oxted and Godstone
5.3 The nearest crematoria to Tandridge are Croydon and Beckenham to the north, Leatherhead to the
West, Surrey and Sussex at Crawley to south and the Kent and Sussex at Royal Tunbridge Wells to
the south East. A further facility was granted planning permission at appeal in 2014 at Oak Tree
Farm to the south of Orpington, which is in the administrative area of Sevenoaks. However, it has
not yet been implemented and we understand there may be issues with the access. None of these
are particularly convenient for most Tandridge residents.
Existing and permitted Crematoria plus Horizon's site at Oxted
16 | P a g eHow do the Crematoria nearest to Tandridge meet the tests of capacity detailed above? We have assessed
each crematorium on the average of their last four years’ cremation numbers. The results for the test of
Practical Capacity are as follows:
Crematorium Average Cremations Practical Margin from Practical
2015-18 Capacity Capacity
Surrey & Sussex 3,054 3,780 81%
Randalls Park 2,216 2,016 110%
Royal Tunbridge 2,418 2,016 120%
Wells
5.4 Surrey and Sussex Crematorium does meet the test of its practical capacity. However, both Randalls
Park and the crematorium at Royal Tunbridge wells fail the test. The results for the Quantitative
Standard are as follows:
Crematorium Average Quantitative Margin from
Cremations 2015-18 Standard Quantitative Standard
Surrey & Sussex 3,054 3,024 101%
Randalls Park 2,216 1,612 137%
Royal Tunbridge 2,418 1,612 150%
Wells
5.5 When it comes to the Quantitative Standard (the test of whether the crematoria are able to cope at
the busiest times of the year) all three local facilities fail. The Surrey and Sussex Crematorium does
so only narrowly, but Randalls Park in Leatherhead and the Kent and Sussex Crematorium at Royal
Tunbridge Wells are patently unable to cope.
Would a new facility bring new people within 30-minute drive of a Crematorium for the first
time?
5.6 The catchment of existing crematoria that would be neighbours of the proposed facility in Tandridge
were assessed by Carter Jonas using the catchment analysis methodology outlined in 4.24–4.39.
This showed the number of deaths within the natural catchment versus the actual number of
cremations. Overall there were 5,147 map predicted deaths in the catchments of Surrey & Sussex,
Leatherhead and Tunbridge Wells crematoria.
5.7 The 2018 throughput for these three crematoriums was 7,746. This shows that people are clearly
travelling from further afield than 30 mins at cortege speed because there are currently significant
gaps in the coverage of existing crematoria. Figure 3 illustrates this. Those living in the ‘white space’
between catchments shown in the map below are currently unprovided for. As can be seen, this
includes a significant part of Tandridge District Council’s administrative area.
17 | P a g eFigure 3 Catchments of existing crematoria
5.8 Once this was done, the catchments were recreated with the addition of the facility off Barrow Green
Road facility. Figures 4 shows that the addition of the new facility in Tandridge off Barrow Green Road
will significantly cut the amount of ‘white land’ and bring many people not currently served by a
crematorium into a catchment for the first time.
18 | P a g eFigure 4 Existing crematoria catchments overlaid with the constrained Barrow Green Road Catchment
5.9 Finally, figure 5 shows the catchment of the proposed crematorium off Barrow Green Road.
19 | P a g eFigure 5 Catchment of the Tandridge Crematorium at Barrow Green Road
Numeric Results
5.10 The table below shows how a crematorium at Barrow Green Road will perform alongside existing
crematoria. Each column compares the number of cremations performed as reported by the
Cremation Society of Great Britain against the number of deaths in that crematorium’s catchment.
Tandridge Surrey & Leatherhead Tunbridge SUM
Sussex Wells
A 2018 Throughput 3027 2147 2572 7746
B Map predicted deaths within 2129 1682 1336 5147
catchment
C Cremations outside 30 min 2599
cortege catchment
20 | P a g eD Map predicted deaths within 1943 1884 1694 1336 6857
new catchment
E Additional cases that now 1710
have 30 min coverage (D-B)
5.11 Row C in this table shows that, in 2018, nearly 2,600 services took place involving people who had to
travel for longer than a 30 minute drive time because there were no crematorium facilities close to
where they lived. This is clear evidence of a pressing need for a new crematorium
5.12 Row E demonstrates that adding the proposed Horizon facility off Barrow Green Road would have
brought 1,710 of these cases within a 30-minute drive time.
5.13 The most recent appeal decision on a crematorium relates to a case on the rural outskirts of Leeds
(ref number A PP/N4720/W/19/323 3784). This followed a hearing rather than a public inquiry and,
as with all appeal decisions, it related to the individual circumstances of that proposal. However, the
appeal decision is useful in referencing the key issues to consider in a crematorium case namely the
greenbelt test, capacity, travel times and qualitative factors.
5.14 The question of a crematorium being justified because it brings a significant new population into the
30 minute catchment of a facility for the first time was given significant weight by the Secretary of
State in a recovered appeal in South Staffordshire, This factor was argued by the appellants at Leeds,
but the catchment area for their proposal overlapped with the 30 minute drive times of the existing
crematoria and the “new population” served was principally rural. Consequently, the Inspector for the
Leeds appeal gave this matter only limited weight on the basis that the rural population would be used
to driving long distances.
5.15 In applying that principle here though the circumstances are very different. There is little overlap with
the other two crematoria; the quantum of new population served is considerably larger and this could
be classed as a suburban setting, not rural. Therefore, the conclusions from the Leeds appeal, as
with others, cannot be directly applied in this instance.
Additional Nearby Crematorium
5.16 We have also considered the permitted, but unbuilt, crematorium at Oak Tree Fam, near Sevenoaks.
Were this to be built, this crematorium would count as being nearby the Barrow Road facility and affect
its catchment.
5.17 The location of Oak Tree farm is marked on Figs 3 to 6. It would serve a separate catchment to the
facility proposed in Tandridge off Barrow Green Road and would also serves a substantial area of
‘white space’. The impact of opening both these proposed facilities is shown in the following table.
Row E on demonstrates that by adding Oak Tree Farm as well as Barrow Green Road, an additional
3108 deaths per year would have been brought within 30 minutes of a crematorium.
21 | P a g eBarrow Oak Surrey Leatherhead Tunbridge SUM
Road Tree & Wells
Sussex
A 2018 Throughput 3027 2147 2572 7746
B Map predicted deaths within 2129 1682 1336 5147
catchment
C Cremations out of 30 min 2599
cortege catchment
D Map predicted deaths within new 1666 1686 1884 1694 1325 8255
catchment
E Additional cases that now have 3108
30 min coverage (D-B)
5.18 Figure 7 shows the effect of adding Oak Tree Farm onto the unique catchments of the existing
crematoria and Barrow Road and graphically demonstrates that a significant amount of the white
space currently present would disappear. Most of those not currently within a 30-minute drive time
of a crematorium would be brought within the ambit of a facility for the first time.
22 | P a g eFigure 7 Unconstrained Catchments including Oak Tree Farm
Looking Ahead
5.19 As we have demonstrated, there is need for a new crematorium in Tandridge now. However, this
situation is going to get still worse. Partly this is because the population of Tandridge is set to grow.
5.20 According to the National Population Projections published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS)
in 2016, the population of Tandridge will grow 13 percent by 2036 from 86,500 in 2016 to 97,600 in
2036. Tandridge already has a higher proportion of people over 65 than the national average and
this number is set to grow by 50% Tandridge District has 18.5% of its population aged over 65
compared to 17.2% in Surrey and 16.4% in England as a whole. Between 2016 and 2036 the ONS
estimates that the number of 65-74 year-olds will grow from 9.500 to 12,300 and the number of 75-84
year-olds from 5,500 to 8,600.
23 | P a g e5.21 The Council’s response to population growth has been to plan for an increase in housing provision in
the district. The Tandridge Local Plan published in 2018 proposes to deal with the need for more
dwellings by building a Garden Village at South Godstone with up to 5,000 new homes being delivered
over 15-20 years. It is worth noting that South Godstone is not well served by existing crematoria
but is just a couple of miles from Horizon’s proposed crematorium site.
5.22 However, there are two further trends which indicate that current over-crowding at existing crematoria
is going to appreciably worsen in the short term: most significantly, the annual number of deaths will
rise by a quarter in the coming years and there is also an ongoing rise in the number of people
choosing to be cremated.
1. The ONS’s National Population Projections project an increase in the death rate of 23 percent
over the coming 20 years. If the ONS is correct, nearly 800,000 people a year will die annually
in the UK in 17 years’ time. Seventeen years later, by 2051, it will be 900,000 per year.
2. Since the war, the cremation rate has risen dramatically. In 1945, eight percent of those dying
in the UK were cremated. Just twenty years later in 1965, it was 46%. By 1970, it was 57%,
and 67% by 1980. Nowadays, nearly 80% of us choose to be cremated when we die. There
is no sign of this tailing off.12
5.23 What do these trends mean for the provision of crematoria in the coming years? In 2017, 467,748
cremations (representing 77.05% of all deaths) were conducted in 289 facilities across the UK: an
average of 1,618 cremations per crematorium 13. Let us assume that the ONS projections for deaths
in the UK over the next 20 years are correct and that, in 2037, there will be 777,000 deaths. If we
further assume that the historic compound annual increase in the cremation rate of 0.33% 14 continues
for the next 20 years, this will result in a cremation rate of 82.3% of all deaths by 2037.
5.24 If no new crematoria are built, this would mean that the average number of cremations being
conducted in 2037 would be 2,205 per crematorium. This represents a rise of 36 percent in demand
over the next 20 years alone.
12 It is possible that a trend for direct cremation that has emerged since the death of David Bowie in 2016, might ameliorate
the local need for a crematorium, but the latest figures published in June 2019 by the Cremation Society of Great Britain
show direct cremations accounting for just 3% of cremations in the UK (so less than 2.4% of deaths) in 2018 despite the
hype. This will not counteract the local need for a new crematorium, particularly as most direct cremations are arranged by
local funeral directors and undertaken in the local area.
13 Cremation Society of Great Britain, Table of Cremations 2017
14 Cremation Society of Great Britain, Table of Cremations 2017
24 | P a g e6 Qualitative Need
Length of Services
6.1 In November 2018, Dignity plc, the company that operates both Randalls Park in Leatherhead and
the Surrey and Sussex Crematorium in Crawley, funded a report on attitudes towards cremation. This
was written by independent consultancy, Trajectory, who ran focus groups; surveyed 2,200 customers
who had arranged a cremation funeral in the last three years; interviewed funeral directors; took
evidence from industry bodies and audited all the crematoria in the UK.
6.2 The findings of this report were that the most important thing for mourners are seclusion and time.
“Fundamentally, customers want crematoria services to be a private and secluded moment in which
they can remember and say goodbye to their loved one in their way. Feeling rushed or on a conveyor
belt and not having a long time slot all undermine this. More than one in three (36%) respondents in
our customer research said they felt as though they were on a conveyor belt… Availability of slots is
important, but so is privacy, so busy multi-chapel crematoria are not always ideal.”15
6.3 The report states: Trajectory found that almost one third of consumers felt they had experienced
insufficient time for the service and mourners particularly disliked that feeling that time was short
because another service had arrived behind them,
“Demand for longer slots is evident, both in terms of length of service and avoiding the ’conveyor belt’
felling. Almost three in 10 customers (29%) feel they did not have enough time at the crematorium.
78% say there should be enough time to ensure you do not see other mourners.”
6.4 Trajectory also found that the length of service on offer was by far the most important motivator in
determining whether people felt the cremation experience had been of good value. Time was a far
greater determinant of value for money than, say the price of a cremation.
“Ultimately, having enough time at the crematorium is more important for most people that the cost.
Value for time is more important than value for money”
6.5 Based upon this report, Trajectory called for a minimum service time of 45 minutes to be adopted as
the norm across the UK. This is in broad agreement with the slightly less stringent standard
suggested by the Institute of Cemetery and Cremation Management (ICCM) which, in its Charter,
recommends that service slots should be at least 40 to 45 minutes long.
6.6 This is a key consideration in discussions on capacity of crematoria because one way of managing
an ever-increasing number of services, is to reduce the amount of time for each slot. As we have
already noted, it is possible to hold 12 services per day with a slot length of 40 minutes. However, a
slot length of 30 minutes gives you capacity for 16 per day. This sometimes seems to make good
sense to those planning service provision. Unfortunately, as the Trajectory/Dignity research makes
clear, it has a significant and detrimental impact upon the experience of mourners.
15“Cost, Quality, Seclusion and Time. What do UK customers want from a cremation funeral” A Report by Trajectory
Summary of key findings p6
25 | P a g e6.7 So how do local crematoria measure up to this time standard? The standard slots offered by Randalls
Park, Surrey and Sussex and Royal Tunbridge Wells crematoria are as follows:
Crematorium Standard Service Slot Length Good Practise Slot Length
Randalls Park, Leatherhead 30 minutes 45 minutes
Surrey and Sussex, Crawley 45 minutes 45 minutes
Royal Tunbridge Wells 45 minutes 45 minutes
6.8 It is no surprise that Randalls Park has the shortest slot lengths. As providers struggle to cope with
demand, they often have little choice but to reduce the amount of time devoted to each service.
Randalls Park’s standard slot length of only 30 minutes is a significant impairment in the quality of the
service offered to mourners there. Given that this is operated by Dignity, a firm that has made such
play of the need for 45-minute slots demonstrates still further the degree of pressure the facility is
under. Surrey and Sussex in Crawley and the crematorium at Royal Tunbridge Wells manage a
longer and generally acceptable slot length within the minimum recommended by the ICCM. However,
given that the Surrey and Sussex facility has two chapels, its failure not to offer an hour service length
shows that this too is coming under pressure.
6.9 However, even the Surrey and Sussex and Royal Tunbridge Wells are unlikely to be able to continue
these slot lengths in the coming years as the death rate and cremation rates rise, without an increase
in the chapel capacity in the area. The impact on the experience being offered to those who use
crematoria should be borne in mind as these decisions are considered.
Pricing
6.10 In situations where the customers of crematoria suffer from a lack of choice, prices, unsurprisingly,
tend to be higher. Again, the magic rule seems to be having crematoria within 30 minutes of each
other. The Competitions and Markets Authority, (CMA) is currently undertaking an investigation into
the cremation market. One of its conclusions is that in areas where there is no choice within 30
minutes of a crematorium, prices are higher.
“On average, fees at crematoria with alternatives within 30 minutes tend to be lower than fees
at crematoria without alternatives. For crematoria who have at least one rival within 30 minutes,
differences in average fees, depending on whether the closest rival is located relatively close or
further away, are often small, as are differences in average fees depending on the number of
rivals located within 30 minutes. For example, average local authority fees when the closest
rival is located 20-30 minutes away are £712, falling slightly to £691 when the closest rival is
closer (10-20 minutes away). Private providers with two rivals within 30 minutes charge, on
average £788, and this falls by less than £10 to £784 when there are three or more rivals within
30 minutes.”16
6.11 This is the situation for the residents of Tandridge. Prices are high in two of the local crematoria and
it seems a fair supposition that one of the reasons for this is because there are insufficient crematoria
within a thirty-minute drive time to provide competition.
16Competition and Markets Authority. Funerals Market Investigation. Updated Review of Key Research and Analysis.
February 2020 Para 81 (b)
26 | P a g e6.12 In fact, the situation for Tandridge residents is worse than this because both the two most used
crematoria (Surrey and Sussex at Crawley and Randalls Park at Leatherhead) for Tandridge residents
(including the only one with any capacity - Surrey and Sussex) are operated by the same company,
Dignity plc.
6.13 Dignity is a professionally run and efficient business offering great quality of care at its facilities.
However, its crematoria are the most expensive in the country. The price for a standard service in
2020 at both the Surrey and Sussex Crematorium and Randalls Park is £1,070. These are the most
expensive crematoria in the UK.
6.14 Prices are lower at the Kent and Sussex which is operated by Tunbridge Wells Borough Council. The
headline cost of a funeral here is £690, but this omits essential ‘extras’ such as the medical referral
fee and an environmental surcharge bringing a comparative cost to £768 which although much lower
than the prices charged by Dignity is still significantly above the £712 that the CMA found was the
average for a local authority in an area not facing competition within a 30 minute drive time.
A Qualitative Assessment of Surrey and Sussex Crematorium, Reigate
6.15 Surrey and Sussex Crematorium opened in 1956 and is set in 13 acres of dense woodland in a semi-
urban area a little more than a mile south east of Gatwick Airport. Less than half a mile to the east is
the M25, but road and to some extent aircraft noise is deadened by the significant woodland planting.
6.16 The entrance opens onto a driveway from which it is only 200m drive through trees and attractive
gardens to the chapels. It feels as though the crematorium is set in a woodland grove and indeed
there are several favourable reviews online about the beauty of the gardens: “what beautiful
grounds….the whole place was pristine” and “beautiful place, the gardens are always immaculate”.
6.17 The crematorium has 124 parking spaces in total. The Federation of Burial and Cremation Authorities
(FBCA) in its 2016 “Guide to Cremation and Crematoria” recommends that parking provision for
crematoria should be
“approximately two thirds of the
total seating capacity of the
chapel”. With two chapels
seating 188 people in total,
Surrey and Sussex Crematorium
meets this requirement exactly.
6.18 Parking is split between into two
separate areas, one of 91 spaces
and the other of 33 including two
disabled spaces. Both are within
easy walk of the crematorium
entrance.
6.19 However, the crematorium is
poorly served by public transport.
It is over two miles from the
The Gardens at Surrey and Sussex Crematorium
Three Bridges railway station and
there are no bus stops nearby.
27 | P a g e6.20 The crematorium is largely accessible to a wheelchair user. St Richard’s Chapel does not have level
access, but there are ramps for wheelchair mourners. St Michael’s Chapel has level access and a
wide doorway.
6.21 The crematorium itself is a cluster of brick buildings well over 60 years old. They are in good order.
The facility has two separate chapels: St Richard’s, which is the larger and St Michael’s, alternatively
known as the memorial Chapel. There does not appear to be any external religious iconography.
6.22 Slots for services are limited to 45 minutes, within the standard of 45 minutes suggested by the
Trajectory Report and the 40-45 minutes recommended by the ICCM.
6.23 Both chapels are equipped with induction loops for the hard of hearing. There are CCTV cameras
mounted on walls outside the crematorium buildings.
6.24 St Richard’s Chapel, the larger chapel, has a porte-cochere which can accommodate a hearse, but
not a limousine. There is plenty of room at the entrance to avoid a bottleneck, except perhaps for the
largest funerals.
6.25 There is a straight run from the
entrance to the catafalque,
which is set to the left at the front
of the chapel. It can be hidden
behind curtains. There is also a
table in a recess at the front with
candles and a free-standing
cross.
6.26 The chapel feels very traditional
and ‘Church-like’ in keeping with
the time in which it was built,
even though there is no fixed
religious iconography in the
chapel. A lectern is placed
alongside the catafalque.
St Richard's Chapel
28 | P a g e6.27 The chapel is light and airy and has tall, attractive stained-glass windows. It has 134 removable seats
plus enough standing room to take its maximum capacity to 200. It is equipped with two large screens
allowing photographic tributes to be displayed, and an organ and facilities for recorded music. It has
facilities to broadcast a service to mourners outside the chapel, and a member of staff said they once
coped with a funeral attended by
300 people.
6.28 The exit is to the left of
the entrance, which opens out
onto a courtyard, allowing
mourners to congregate and
inspect floral tributes. This
contains memorial wall plaques.
At one end of the courtyard is a
small building containing male,
female and disabled toilets,
shared between the two chapels,
and a waiting room for bereaved
families with 10 seats.
6.29 St Michael’s Chapel
does not have a porte cochere,
and its hallway is sufficiently large
St Michael's Chapel to avoid congestion. There is a
straight run into the catafalque at
the far end of the chapel in the centre. This is surrounded by curtains and has a table the left front of
the chapel, with candles and a free-standing cross. There are lecterns to the left and right of the
catafalque.
6.30 The chapel is light and airy and, like St Richard’s Chapel, has attractive modern stained-glass windows.
It has 54 removable seats, but when they are all in place there is little standing room. Like the larger
chapel it is equipped with two screens, an organ and facilities for recorded music.
6.31 It too has a dedicated waiting room, this time with 11 seats.
6.32 The exit is to the left of the entrance, and it leads to an open courtyard allowing mourners to
congregate and for flowers and wreaths to be displayed.
6.33 No services were being conducted during the visit, but there is plenty of space to allow in going and
outgoing funerals to pass each other without too much difficulty.
6.34 The cremators in the Surrey and Sussex are all fully abated meaning that the facility complies with
the most recent emissions regulations.
6.35 Of the three local crematoria, Surrey and Sussex has the most attractive setting of woodland and
gardens which provides a natural screening and sound deadening for Gatwick Airport in close
proximity. The grounds are clearly highly regarded by mourners and have received many favourable
comments, as have the services provided.
29 | P a g e6.36 However, there are a number of issues, which although minor in themselves, might cumulatively
detract from the attractive grounds. These include the Christian feel to the chapels, the lack of a bus
services to the crematorium (and the railway station is two miles away); rather small waiting rooms;
toilet facilities shared between the two chapels; the lack of a porte-cochere for the smaller chapel and
open courtyards for the flowers and congregating after the funeral, which are not ideal in the winter
months and when the weather is poor.
A Qualitative Assessment of Randalls Park Crematorium, Leatherhead
6.37 Randalls Park Crematorium opened nearly 60 years ago in 1961. It is located a little more than a
mile to the west of the centre of Leatherhead and set in fairly open countryside. The site and adjoining
cemetery are lined by a belt of trees, which thicken into a wood to the south and east of the
crematorium. Significantly, the River Mole forms part of the southern boundary to the site.
6.38 This is significant because Randalls Park
floods. Several of the incidents have been
serious – in 2013 and 2014, when the facility
closed for three months. It has not been
immune this year either and the
crematorium flooded over Christmas 2019
and at the time of writing (mid-March 2020)
had still not reopened for services. This is
a significant issue because it is impossible
to build more chapel capacity on the site
given its flooding history.
6.39 The entrance to the crematorium is off the
A245 Randalls Road and is shared with the
cemetery. It leads to a small roundabout
with a left turning to the cemetery, a right
turn for the crematorium car park, but
corteges would continue straight ahead to
the chapel. That road forms a loop around
the crematorium building for the return
journey.
6.40 Both the road to the crematorium and the
car park run through open grassland with a
few trees dotted along their lengths. The
distance between the entrance and the
chapel is about 160 yards.
Randalls Park flooded in 2014
6.41 A single car park has a practical layout with
an easy walk to the chapel entrance, which is 60 yards from the nearest point to the entrance. There
are 93 car parking spaces, with a further three for disabled parking, significantly more parking than
the capacity of the chapel would seem to require.
6.42 There is an extensive remembrance gardens located adjacent to the car park.
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