HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT - CMHC
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HOUSING MARKET
INFORMATION
HOUSING
MARKET
ASSESSMENT
CANADA AND METROPOLITAN AREAS
DATE RELEASED: THIRD QUARTER 2020
Welcome to the new
Housing Market Assessment (HMA) Stay Informed
cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation
You will find, in this single report, an introduction reviewing
the economic and housing market conditions in Canada and
detailed analyses for 15 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs).
You can use the menu on the next page to navigate to the latest
Housing Market Assessment results in the region of your choice.HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
We want your
feedback
Take a short survey to
let us know your thoughts.
Housing market
assessment in select
Census Metropolitan
Areas (CMAs)
Click on CMA below
for direct access.
24 Hamilton
7 Victoria 26 Toronto
10 Vancouver 28 Ottawa
13 Edmonton 30 Montréal
15 Calgary 32 Québec
17 Saskatoon 34 Moncton
19 Regina 36 Halifax
22 Winnipeg 38 St. John’s
2HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
What is the HMA? Market vulnerabilities and COVID-19
CMHC contributes to market stability by providing The last HMA was released in February, shortly before
information on potential imbalances affecting housing the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant and rapid
markets. The Housing Market Assessment (HMA) is changes in the economy. Due to the swift evolution of
an analytical framework intended to detect evidence the situation and unprecedented level of uncertainty,
of current or emerging imbalances across Canada. the HMA was suspended until relevant and timely data
were available again. The current assessment is based
The HMA considers four key factors: overheating, price
on preliminary data from the second quarter of 2020.
acceleration, overvaluation and overbuilding. As the number
of intense and persistent signals of imbalances increases, the While the HMA framework still focuses on the
degree of vulnerability of the housing market becomes higher. same key factors in assessing the degree of housing
A detailed description of the HMA methodology is presented market vulnerability (overheating, price acceleration,
in the appendix of this report. overvaluation and overbuilding), there exists a wider
range of housing market vulnerabilities in the context
The HMA is not a housing affordability assessment. The
of the COVID-19 crisis. The HMA nonetheless
challenge of affordability is multi-faceted and may differ for
remains useful to keep a pulse on the state of
segments of the population. Instead, the HMA is aimed at
the housing markets in Canada and to continue
assessing whether there are risks from the overall housing
monitoring potential housing market imbalances.
market that could ultimately affect financial stability. With
the HMA, CMHC offers information and analysis that can The first section of this report presents the latest
help Canadians make informed decisions and contribute HMA results at the national level with additional
to an orderly adjustment of housing market imbalances. context and interpretation considering the recent
disturbances in the Canadian economy.
Comparisons between the February 2020 and September 2020 reports
Price Overall
Overheating Acceleration Overvaluation* Overbuilding Assessment
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020
Canada
Victoria
Vancouver
Edmonton
Calgary
Saskatoon
Regina
Winnipeg
Hamilton
Toronto
Ottawa
Montréal
Québec
Moncton
Halifax
St. John’s
The HMA methodology is presented in the appendix of this report. Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High
*
The September 2020 overvaluation ratings are based on preliminary estimates.
3HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
National HMA results for Canada
Highlights Overall assessment
The health and economic consequences of COVID-19 on
Canada were most evident in the second quarter of 2020
Risks surrounding overvaluation as much of the country was under lockdown. Necessary
shutdowns, which halted all non-essential activity and restricted
estimates in the second quarter of 2020 travel, resulted in unprecedented job losses, declining incomes,
and a slowdown in international migration. By mid-May, the
The use of estimated data success of containment measures in most regions allowed for
To ensure timely information for market participants, the gradual relaxation of restrictions and, correspondingly,
beginning with this edition, CMHC will now be releasing a gradual recovery reflected in some economic indicators by
the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) earlier than usual. the end of June. Nevertheless, Statistics Canada indicated that
To do this, we must rely on estimated data for some of the real GDP fell by 11.5%2 in the second quarter, which was the
fundamental drivers of the housing market used to estimate steepest quarterly decline on record.
overvaluation1. As such, our calculations and colour-coded
ratings for overvaluation are preliminary estimates for the Housing market activity across the country slowed significantly
second quarter of 2020. Final calculations and colour-coded between the first and second quarters due to the combined
ratings for overvaluation for the second quarter will be effects of the COVID-19 driven economic decline and social
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data distancing measures put in place to curb the spread of the virus.
for these fundamental drivers becomes available. The sharp pullback in new listings and the resultant low levels
of inventory, however, maintained some pressure on observed
house prices in the local housing markets that were seeing
The impact of unprecedented government strong activity prior to the crisis. Along with the downturn in
financial supports on the level of overvaluation economic fundamentals, this led to an increase in the number
Real personal disposable income is a key fundamental of Census Metropolitan Areas3 (CMAs) exhibiting a moderate
determinant of house prices and one of the input variables degree of vulnerability in their respective housing markets.
in our econometric models used to estimate the fundamental As well, nearly all CMAs experienced an increase in average
level of house prices and, hence, the level of overvaluation. overvaluation estimates between the first and second quarters
this year.
The unprecedented income supports from Canadian
governments to households (such as the Canada Emergency The evidence of rising imbalances in some local housing
Response Benefit and the Employment Insurance Benefits) markets coupled with the general weakening of housing
provide relief to individuals experiencing financial hardship market fundamentals results in a moderate degree of
due to the COVID-19 crisis. These sources of income overall vulnerability being maintained for the Canadian
are, however, temporary. Consequently, reported levels housing market.
of disposable income, which include these temporary
income supports, may overstate the level of long-term, Overvaluation
permanent disposable income available to households that
forms the foundation of buying a home. As a result, Moderate evidence of overvaluation is detected at the national
the level of overvaluation in the second quarter of 2020, level. After peaking in 2016 and 2017, overvaluation imbalances
both nationally and across the Census Metropolitan Areas, in Canada had gradually resolved by the end of 2019. However,
is likely underestimated. the recent COVID-19 disturbance to the economy weakened
some of the fundamental determinants of the housing market
in the second quarter of 2020. In particular, steep declines
in employment and hours worked lowered income in most
regions4. Additionally, the real (inflation-adjusted) 5-year fixed
1
Estimated data included disposable income, population, and labour productivity.
2
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200828/dq200828a-eng.htm.
3
In reference to the 15 Census Metropolitan Areas covered in this report.
4
The decline in income would have likely been greater without the significant, temporary financial support from the governments
(i.e., The Canada Emergency Response Benefit, Employment Insurance Benefits, etc.).
4HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
mortgage rate increased. In line with action taken by the Bank
of Canada in March to support the economy, the nominal Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overheating in Canada
5-year mortgage rate declined. In normal circumstances, this
action would support the housing market. The COVID-19 % Sales-to-new listings ratio
100 Threshold
pandemic has changed many behaviours, however, and resulted
in growth in the headline Consumer Price Index declining. 80
Such a decline resulted in an increase in the real mortgage rate.
60
The weakness in some key housing market determinants 40
led to a decline in the level of house prices supported by
20
fundamentals in almost all CMAs between the first and second
quarters this year. In contrast, observed house prices had 0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
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2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
increased in most centers over the same period. As a result,
most CMAs experienced an increase in their respective average
overvaluation estimates. This led to an increase in the number Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
of centers now exhibiting moderate evidence of overvaluation.
The emergence of evidence of overvaluation imbalances at the
national level will continue to be closely monitored.
Figure 2: Low Evidence of Price Acceleration
Overheating
in Canada
Since mid-2019, the resale market had been tightening,
Test statistic Threshold
evidenced by a rising sales-to-new-listings ratio. However,
2
resale market activity in the second quarter of 2020 plummeted 1
due to the COVID-19 crisis. Social distancing measures -1
curtailed in-person property showings while employment losses -2
and declines in income created uncertainty over the future -3
-4
path of the price of housing. The simultaneous occurrence of -5
both caused the number of transactions and the number of -6
new listings entering the market to fall at a record pace. With -7
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1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
sales falling by slightly more than new listings, the sales-to-
new-listings ratio dropped to 61.9% from a recent high of
Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC
65.8% in the fourth quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). At this level, it Last data point: 2020Q2
remained below the critical threshold set to signal overheating.
Therefore, the evidence of overheating remains low.
Overbuilding
Price acceleration
Finally, the evidence of overbuilding remains low as the
Consistent with the prior tightening of the resale market, inventory of completed and unsold homeowner units per
the inflation-adjusted MLS® national average price experienced 10,000 population (Figure 3) and the rental apartment
four consecutive quarters of growth through to the first vacancy rate (Figure 4) remained below their respective
quarter of 2020. By the second quarter of 2020, following overbuilding thresholds.
the sudden shock to housing market fundamentals and two
quarterly declines of the sales-to-new-listings ratio, the real
average price had fallen. Consequently, evidence of price
acceleration also remains low (Figure 2).
5HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
(which reflects data as at October 2019). Given the recency
Figure 3: Low Evidence of Overbuilding in Canada of these developments, the overbuilding indicator will continue
(ownership market) to be closely monitored as more data becomes available.
Completed and unsold units Threshold
8 per 10,000 population Regional overview
7 All regions of the country were affected by the COVID-19
6
5 pandemic. Vancouver and Toronto entered the second
4 quarter of 2020 with a general unwinding of housing market
3 imbalances. However, both experienced an increase in
2
1 observed house prices for some price measures in the second
0 quarter despite the COVID-19 driven decline in the estimated
(fundamental) house price. This has led to an increase in
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1996
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2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
average overvaluation estimates in both housing markets.
Sources: Statistics Canada and CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2 Conversely, in eastern Canada, Ottawa, Montréal, Moncton,
and Halifax entered the second quarter of 2020 with emerging
imbalances in their respective housing markets. Observed
house prices in all four had been growing prior to the onset
Figure 4: Low Evidence of Overbuilding in Canada of COVID-19 and continued growing in the second quarter,
(purpose-built rental market) despite the general weakness in housing market fundamentals.
This has led to the detection of moderate evidence of
% Rental apartment vacancy rate overvaluation in Moncton and Halifax while a sustained
6 Threshold increase in the rate of house price growth has led to the
5 signalling of price acceleration in Ottawa and Montréal.
4 The Ottawa, Moncton, and Halifax housing markets are all
3 now assessed at an overall moderate degree of vulnerability.
2
1 In the Prairies, Edmonton and Calgary’s recent economic
0 woes due to oil price softness were further aggravated by
the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price decline it inspired.
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1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Observed house prices in these centers fell in the second
Source: CMHC quarter, but the rate of decline was below that suggested
Last data point: 2019 by housing market fundamentals. This has led to an increase
in average overvaluation estimates in both housing markets
between the first and second quarters this year. Additionally,
According to CMHC Starts and Completions Survey data, evidence of overbuilding, which was first detected in 2015,
nearly 80% of homeowner units completed in the second is still present in both markets.
quarter of 2020 were sold at completion; a figure consistent
with the recent five-year average. It is worth noting, however,
COVID-19 supports
that many of these units, particularly condominium apartments,
were likely sold prior to the implementation of containment There exist a wide range of government programs to assist
measures in most regions in mid-March 2020. This may have individuals and businesses experiencing financial hardship during
kept the inventory of completed and unsold homeowner units the COVID-19 crisis6. These include, but are not limited to,
per 10,000 population at a lower level than it otherwise would mortgage payment deferrals, the Canada Emergency Response
have been. Additionally, the impact to the rental apartment Benefit (CERB), the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS),
market of reduced migration flows, the disproportionate loss and the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance
of part-time and seasonal jobs, and lifted eviction moratoria5 (CECRA) program. CMHC will continue to closely monitor
in several regions are not yet reflected in the vacancy rate housing markets as these programs are either withdrawn
or transitioned to other programs.
5
Many provinces and territories had announced measures to suspend evictions at the outset of the COVID-19 crisis (consult the following link for additional
details: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/rental-housing/COVID-19-eviction-bans-and-suspensions-to-support-renters).
6
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/economic-response-plan.html.
6HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Victoria Low Evidence of Overheating
The rating on overheating remained low in Victoria in the
Pershing Sun second quarter of 2020, as the sales-to-new-listing ratio (SNLR)
Senior Analyst, Economics remained below the critical threshold (Figure 1). During the
second quarter, the SNLR declined to its lowest level since
The overall degree of vulnerability in
the Victoria housing market is reduced 2019, after a brief rebound in the beginning of 2020 prior to
to moderate in the second quarter of the pandemic induced market contraction occurred. Quarterly
2020, as evidence of price acceleration sales (CREA) have been trending downward since Q2 2019
eased from moderate to low while signs and flattened out in Q2 2020, registering a 31% year-over-year
of overvaluation remained moderate. decline. However, as the pandemic lockdown intensified in Q2
Ratings on overheating and overbuilding 2020 with growing public health concerns, new listings (CREA)
continued to be low.
also declined 25% year-over-year. As sales incurred a greater
contraction compared to new listings, market conditions eased
somewhat as both supply and demand are adjusting to a slower
Results Overview * market amidst unprecedented market uncertainties in 2020.
Victoria CMA
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020
Overheating Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overheating in Victoria
Price Acceleration % Sales-to-new listings ratio
Overvaluation 100 Threshold
Overbuilding 80
Overall Assessment 60
40
Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High 20
*
Results are based on data as of the end of June 2020 (the annual rental 0
apartment vacancy rates are from October 2019) and market intelligence
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1992
1994
1996
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2016
2018
2020
up to August 2020. To ensure timely information for market participants,
the overvaluation framework in this edition relies on preliminary estimates
of some of the fundamental drivers of the housing market in the second Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC
quarter of 2020. Final calculations and ratings for overvaluation will be Last data point: 2020Q2
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data for these
fundamental drivers becomes available.
Out of the various socio-economical abnormalities in the first
• The overall assessment for Victoria moved to a moderate half of 2020, one characteristic of Victoria’s sales remained
degree of vulnerability in Q2 2020, as price acceleration unchanged: single-family homes not only accounted for the
now signaling a low degree of vulnerability. majority of sales in Q2, their share reached the highest level
• Evidence of overvaluation remained moderate due to since 2016. On the supply side, active listings of single-family
the expanding imbalance between growing home price homes began to decline at the end of Q4 2019 and remained
and weakened economic fundamentals, amidst pandemic- low in 2020. By the end of Q2 2020, the heightened demand
induced economic uncertainties. of single-family homes combined with low listing levels have
led to a market condition that’s only been seen at year-end
• Single-family homes entered seller’s market condition, as
2009: fewer single-family homes left for sale than apartments.
demand for detached units heightened and supply stalled
It’s worth noting that the gap between single-family and
amidst public health concerns and economic uncertainties.
apartment homes in active listings was 29 and -30 at the end
• Contrary to the inventory composition seen in the past of Q1 and Q2 this year, while the 10-year (2009-2019) average
three years, there are now higher inventories of apartments of the gap is 270 and 380. This rare market condition reveals
than single-family homes. Construction activities continued heightened demand in traditionally less affordable home types,
to focus on apartments in Q2 2020, which could lead to potentially due to the low nominal mortgage rate environment,
growing supply in this sector in the coming quarters. as well as the health concerns surrounding shared facilities in
apartment buildings.
7HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Evidence of Price Acceleration mortgage rate and amortization period, carrying cost for
Transitioned to Low homeowners, and labor productivity (construction sector).
The maximum overvaluation gap was above the threshold in
The rating on price acceleration moved from moderate to
Q2 2020 for the second time in the past four-quarter period,
low in Q2 2020. The test for price acceleration remained
signalling moderate evidence of overvaluation.
under the critical threshold for the 13th consecutive quarter
since it first surpassed the threshold more than 3 years ago
in Q1 2017 (Figure 2).
Figure 3: Moderate Evidence of Overvaluation
in Victoria
Figure 2: Low Evidence of Price Acceleration Average overvaluation estimate
in Victoria 4 Maximum overvaluation estimate
3 Threshold
Standard Deviation
5 Test statistic Threshold 2
4 1
3 0
2
1 -1
-1 -2
-2
-3 -3
-4
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2002
2004
2010
2012
2016
2018
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2000
2006
2008
2014
2020
-5
-6
-7
Sources: CREA, Statistics Canada, Teranet and National Bank
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1996
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2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
of Canada, and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC Note: The average estimate of overvaluation is the average gap
Last data point: 2020Q2 between actual house prices and their fundamental level estimated
from a group of selected models. There are five models in total,
each of which is estimated using four measures of house prices
to generate twenty unique estimates of overvaluation. The selection
Home prices increased both quarter-to-quarter (QTQ) of models is conducted with a set of cointegration tests, and the
selected models are estimated with Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated
and year-over-year (YOY), reflected by various price indexes Regression (DSUR). The maximum overvaluation gap is obtained
adopted in the HMA framework. This includes the inflation from the model that has the largest gap between the actual price
adjusted MLS® average price (up 1% QTQ and 8% YOY), and the estimated price. The threshold is fixed at a critical value
of 1.285 for a confidence level of 90%. Overvaluation is signaled
the Teranet® House Price Index (up 1% QTQ and 3% YOY),
when overvaluation estimates lie above the threshold.
and the Statistics Canada New Housing Price Index (up 1%
QTQ and 1% YOY). As the market entered the COVID-19
pandemic period, the heightened demand and sales in the
It is worth noting the relatively sharp increase of the average
high-priced single-family segment skewed the average price,
gap since the last HMA release in Q3 2019. In a broader
resulting in a general price increase between Q3 2019 and
province and nation-wide context, rising unemployment,
Q2 2020. This upward trend in home prices could persist if
reduced income, contractions in the tourism and travel industry
homebuyers’ preference shift were to take hold in the near
in BC, and significantly lower immigration that would support
future, which would be a focus of market monitoring effort.
population growth and housing demand, are all contributors
to a weaker estimated home price. In Victoria, the HMA
Moderate Evidence of Overvaluation framework identified that lower income and lower inflation
The HMA framework continued to detect moderate evidence contributed to a decline in the estimated home price. However,
of overvaluation in Q2 2020. The average gap between actual heightened demand for the more expensive detached sector
home price and estimated home prices has increased past in the environment of low nominal mortgage rate reveals a
the negative range since Q3 2019, and has risen close to the preference shift, and possibly less severe COVID-19 impacts on
critical threshold in Q2 2020 (Figure 3), indicating that the homebuyers financially compared to other parts of the country.
actual home price increased while the average of estimated The result is an ever-expanding gap between observed market
home price models, based on economic fundamentals, price and economic fundamentals amidst the economic impacts
declined since Q3 2019. The estimated home price models of a public health crisis, indicating a growing imbalance between
take into consideration several factors, including population price levels and what can be justified by the local economy.
growth and demographics, personal disposable income,
8HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Low Evidence of Overbuilding
The HMA framework continued to detect low evidence Figure 5: Low Evidence of Overbuilding in Victoria
(ownership market)
of overbuilding in Victoria. The purpose-built rental vacancy
rate in 2019 remained at 1% as of October 2019, well below Completed and unsold units Threshold
its critical threshold (Figure 4). The tightness in the rental 24 by 10,000 population
market seen in 2019 may not hold amidst the pandemic due 20
to changes in factors including tenants’ lifestyles, migration 16
flows, and landlords’ financial conditions, all of which could 12
influence rental demand and supply. 8
4
0
Figure 4: Low Evidence of Overbuilding in Victoria
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2002
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2008
2010
2012
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2018
2020
(purpose-built rental market)
Sources: Statistics Canada and CMHC
% Rental apartment vacancy rate Last data point: 2020Q2
5 Threshold
4
3 Go Back to Table of Content
2
1
0
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2019
Source: CMHC
Last data point: 2019
The inventory of completed and unsold units (per 10,000
population) stalled in Q2 2020, remaining below the critical
threshold (Figure 5). Most of the inventories are apartments
in Q2 2020, which had already surpassed single-family
inventory levels pre-pandemic in Q4 2019 for the first time
since mid-2017. This shift in inventory composition was later
amplified by an emerging shift in dwelling preference from
multi-family to single-family living in Victoria as the pandemic
took hold. However, construction activities continued to
follow an apartment-focused pattern in Q2 2020 as most of
the housing starts in the first two quarters of this year were
multi-family homes. This may lead to growing inventories in the
coming quarters and possible downward pressure on prices.
9HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Vancouver • The price level theoretically supported by local economic
conditions declined, widening the gap between the
theoretical price level and the observed price level.
Braden T. Batch
Senior Analyst, Economics
• Inventories of homes have risen recently, but remain below
threshold. Similarly, as apartment vacancy rates remain
Vancouver’s housing market is
low, there continues to be low evidence of overbuilding.
assessed as being moderately
vulnerable. While each individual
indicator pointed to low evidence, Low Evidence of Overheating
growing vulnerabilities were observed
in the data. After several quarters of The HMA framework indicated low evidence of overheating
improvement, the overvaluation gap for the Vancouver CMA. The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR)
between fundamental and market declined from the mid 60% range to the mid 40% range, well
prices widened. This warrants a below the threshold of overheating, which is set at 75%. The
special level of caution, considering SNLR indicator typically reflects movements in sales, since new
the unique economic conditions
listings tend to be more stable over time. The noteworthy
surrounding this change.
trend is a fall in new listings, where the fall in listings nearly
matched the fall in sales from the first to the second quarter
of 2020. This tells us that a significant share of homeowners
Results Overview * chose to abstain from selling their homes during the COVID-19
Vancouver CMA lockdown, and this corresponded with the number of buyers
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 who abstained from the market. This makes the interpretation
Overheating of the SNLR less straight forward than usual, and a movement
away from the threshold should not be taken as a decline in
Price Acceleration vulnerability. What is observable is that the market shrank
Overvaluation from both the buy side and the sell side. The sales-to-available
Overbuilding indicator, as seen in Table 1, shows the share of homes that
sold as compared to the total available homes on the market.
Overall Assessment It shows that market conditions shifted slightly to favour sellers
in the single detached market, but otherwise the balance
Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High between the buy and the sell side was relatively unchanged.
*
Results are based on data as of the end of June 2020 (the annual rental
apartment vacancy rates are from October 2019) and market intelligence
up to August 2020. To ensure timely information for market participants,
the overvaluation framework in this edition relies on preliminary estimates
Table 1: Sales-to-Available Ratio
of some of the fundamental drivers of the housing market in the second
quarter of 2020. Final calculations and ratings for overvaluation will be
Condo
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data for these (Attached +
fundamental drivers becomes available. Single-Detached Apartment)
End End End End
Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2
• CMHC’s Housing Market Assessment (HMA) framework 2020 2019 2020 2019
detects a moderate degree of vulnerability for the
Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) housing Burnaby 14% 11% 15% 15%
market. The rating reflects a persistence rule in the
classification of market vulnerabilities rather than Coquitlam 16% 12% 18% 17%
a particular vulnerability detected.
Delta 16% 12% 12% 17%
• CMHC’s analytical framework maintained its ratings for
overheating, price acceleration, and overbuilding from New Westminster 17% 14% 18% 18%
the previous quarter.
North Vancouver 18% 16% 19% 18%
• Overvaluation was not detected, resulting in a change
from moderate to low evidence of vulnerability. Port Coquitlam 26% 17% 26% 23%
10HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Condo Low Evidence of Overvaluation
(Attached + The HMA framework did not detect evidence of overvaluation
Single-Detached Apartment) for the Vancouver CMA. A rating of moderate evidence was
End End End End downgraded since the overvaluation indicator did not breach
Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 the threshold determined by historical imbalances (Figure 1).
2020 2019 2020 2019
That said, the fundamental price level did decline. A small bump
Port Moody 15% 14% 21% 22% in young adult population supported price growth, holding all
things equal, however the largest impact on fundamental price
Richmond 9% 8% 13% 11% levels was an increase in the inflation adjusted mortgage rate
M Ridge P coupled with a fall in income. The end result was a weakened
18% 15% 21% 20% household budget, and this meant that fundamentals were
Meadows
more consistent with falling prices rather than what we actually
Vancouver DT - - 13% 13%
observed, which was a rise in the real price level. The gap in
Vancouver East 16% 12% 19% 20% observed and fundamental prices tells us that vulnerability
increased in Vancouver, although it did not trigger a rating of
Vancouver West 11% 9% 14% 14% moderate evidence of vulnerability. One factor that is not easily
isolated in our data is the effect of emergency government
West Vancouver 8% 7% 9% 6% transfers during the pandemic. Certainly, household budgets
would have declined even more absent these government
Langley 22% 16% 18% 21% transfers, and given the fact that vulnerabilities increased in
relation to household budgets, we believe this fact bears special
Surrey 15% 15% 18% 20%
consideration when considering the possibility of imbalances in
S. Surrey / the housing market.
11% 9% 16% 16%
White Rock
Vancouver CMA 14% 12% 16% 17%
Source: SnapStats (Based on Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overvaluation
and Fraser Valley Real Estate Board data), CMHC calculations. in Vancouver
A balanced market is between 10 and 18%.
Average overvaluation estimate
Maximum overvaluation estimate
Low Evidence of Price Acceleration 4 Threshold
Standard Deviation
Price acceleration was not detected in 2020 Q2. MLS® prices 3
2
declined during the COVID-19 lockdown after adjusting for 1
inflation, however the change was small and year-over-year 0
price growth remained positive. In the two largest submarkets, -1
Vancouver apartments and Surrey single – detached, there -2
-3
was positive year-over-year price growth in nominal terms.
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2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Vancouver apartments increased by 3%, while Surrey single-
detached increased 10%. Most submarkets experienced some
Sources: CREA, Statistics Canada, Teranet and National Bank
form of price increase above what was recorded in the nominal of Canada, and calculations by CMHC
aggregate for the CMA; however, there appears to be a greater Last data point: 2020Q2
share of sales in areas like Langley, where the average price is Note: The average estimate of overvaluation is the average gap
lower, and this contributed to the slower overall average price between actual house prices and their fundamental level estimated
from a group of selected models. There are five models in total,
growth than what the submarket data indicates. This means each of which is estimated using four measures of house prices to
that aggregate price movements in the average price data generate twenty unique estimates of overvaluation. The selection
reflected a compositional shift and understated the actual of models is conducted with a set of cointegration tests, and the
selected models are estimated with Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated
price growth in the market.
Regression (DSUR). The maximum overvaluation gap is obtained
from the model that has the largest gap between the actual price
and the estimated price. The threshold is fixed at a critical value
of 1.285 for a confidence level of 90%. Overvaluation is signaled
when overvaluation estimates lie above the threshold.
11HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Low Evidence of Overbuilding
The HMA framework continued to detect low evidence Figure 3: Low Evidence of Overbuilding
of overbuilding in Metro Vancouver’s housing market. in Vancouver (purpose-built rental market)
Inventories of multi unit dwellings continued to increase, % Rental apartment vacancy rate
while those for single detached units declined. New 3 Threshold
construction inventory mirrored active listings, showing a
draw down in inventory for single-detached units continuing 2
into the COVID-19 lockdown, as sales for single detached
grew as a share of total sales. Overall, the completed and 1
unsold stock is low relative to the local population in the
Vancouver CMA (Figure 2). The purpose-built rental 0
apartment vacancy rate remains well below the threshold
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
for the detection of overbuilding (Figure 3).
Source: CMHC
Last data point: 2019
Figure 2: Low Evidence of Overbuilding
in Vancouver (ownership market) Go Back to Table of Content
Completed and unsold units Threshold
32 by 10,000 population
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Sources: Statistics Canada and CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
12HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Edmonton observed in the previous quarter (Figure 1). This ratio,
which compares the number of new homes entering the
market to the number being sold, remained well below the
Christian Arkilley 85% threshold, indicating that demand kept pace with supply.
Senior Analyst, Economics Adjusted for seasonality, resale market activity worsened
Weak economic and labour market within the quarter with both sales and new listings
conditions owing to the COVID-19 decreasing, resulting in the stable seasonally adjusted
pandemic and the fall in oil prices sales-to-new listings ratio.
are constraining the absorption of
newly completed units, keeping
inventories elevated.
Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overheating
in Edmonton
Results Overview * % Sales-to-new listings ratio
Edmonton CMA 100
Threshold
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 80
Overheating 60
Price Acceleration 40
Overvaluation 20
0
Overbuilding
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Overall Assessment
Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High
*
Results are based on data as of the end of June 2020 (the annual rental
apartment vacancy rates are from October 2019) and market intelligence
up to August 2020. To ensure timely information for market participants,
the overvaluation framework in this edition relies on preliminary estimates Low Evidence of Price Acceleration
of some of the fundamental drivers of the housing market in the second
quarter of 2020. Final calculations and ratings for overvaluation will be There continued to be low evidence of price acceleration in
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data for these the Edmonton CMA. The slower recovery of the Edmonton
fundamental drivers becomes available. job market coupled with the elevated inventories in the new
home market resulted in downwards pressure in resale prices
• The overall assessment for the Edmonton CMA is in the CMA. The real MLS® average price in the second
maintained as having a low degree of overall vulnerability. quarter of this year was down 2.9% compared to the same
period of 2019 and down 1.8% quarter-over-quarter. The
• Overvaluation was maintained as low as fundamental existing home market conditions continued to favour the
demand factors trended lower. buyer, and future price growth is expected to remain soft
• Overbuilding was maintained as moderate as economic due to sufficient choices in both the new and the existing
uncertainties constrained the absorption of newly home markets.
completed units.
• Low evidence of overheating and price acceleration Low Evidence of Overvaluation
were maintained, unchanged from previous quarters. Evidence of overvaluation remains low in the Edmonton
CMA. The gap between actual house prices and price levels
Low evidence of overheating predicted by economic fundamentals remain below the critical
threshold for both the maximum overvaluation gap and the
The Housing Market Assessment (HMA) framework detected average overvaluation gap. Fundamental demand factors such
low evidence of overheating in the Edmonton CMA housing as the population of young adults (aged 25-34), income, and
market. During the second quarter of 2020, the sales-to- real five-year discounted mortgage rate all decreased as
new listing ratio averaged 49.7%, unchanged from what was economic uncertainties and job losses due to COVID-19
13HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
and lower oil prices impacted housing market demand. The relatively stronger demand for purpose-built rentals and
The decreases in the fundamental demand factors resulted rental condominium units has helped move Edmonton’s rental
in the easing of some house price growth and narrowed market towards more balanced conditions. The vacancy rate
the overvaluation gap (Figure 2). has been falling since 2017. Uncertainties and job losses
caused by the current economic climate have amplified
the demand for rental units.
Figure 2: Low Evidence of Overvaluation
in Edmonton
Figure 3: Evidence of Overbuilding in Edmonton
Average overvaluation estimate (ownership market)
4 Maximum overvaluation estimate
Standard Deviation
3 Threshold Completed and unsold units Threshold
2 24 by 10,000 population
1
0 20
-1 16
-2 12
-3 8
1996
1998
2002
2004
2010
2012
2016
2018
1992
1994
2000
2006
2008
2014
2020
4
0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Sources: CREA, Statistics Canada, Teranet and National Bank
of Canada, and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
Sources: Statistics Canada and CMHC
Note: The average estimate of overvaluation is the average gap Last data point: 2020Q2
between actual house prices and their fundamental level estimated
from a group of selected models. There are five models in total,
each of which is estimated using four measures of house prices to
generate twenty unique estimates of overvaluation. The selection
of models is conducted with a set of cointegration tests, and the
selected models are estimated with Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Figure 4: Evidence of Overbuilding in Edmonton
Regression (DSUR). The maximum overvaluation gap is obtained (purpose-built rental market)
from the model that has the largest gap between the actual price
and the estimated price. The threshold is fixed at a critical value % Rental apartment vacancy rate
of 1.285 for a confidence level of 90%. Overvaluation is signaled Threshold
when overvaluation estimates lie above the threshold. 10
8
6
4
Moderate evidence of overbuilding
2
Evidence of overbuilding in the Edmonton CMA housing 0
market remained moderate in the second quarter of 2020
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
as the number of completed and unabsorbed units per capita
remained above the critical threshold. This market imbalance Source: CMHC
is largely driven by increased construction activity of single- Last data point: 2019
detached units coupled with rising choices for buyers in the
resale market. However, the completed and unabsorbed
units of row and apartment per capita declined below the
threshold for significant overbuilding of row and apartment. Go Back to Table of Content
Weak economic and labour market conditions due
to the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices are
constraining the absorption of newly completed units and
keeping inventories elevated, resulting in the persistence of
overbuilding imbalances in the Edmonton market.
14HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Calgary the previous quarter due to a combination of a weakening
economy, as well as pandemic measures that limit resale
transaction accessibility, and general uncertainty. However,
Michael Mak as seasonally adjusted new listings fell slightly more at 31%
Senior Analyst, Economics compared to the 30% drop in seasonally adjusted sales, the
While the Calgary CMA continues to ratio was able to remain relatively flat. While this is a special
show low degree of vulnerability, there circumstance, the SNLR continues to be higher than recent
is moderate evidence of overbuilding as lows in 2018, pointing to a strengthening buyer’s market.
new home inventories continue to grow
among weaker economic drivers.
Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overheating in Calgary
% Sales-to-new listings ratio
Results Overview * 100 Threshold
Calgary CMA 80
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 60
Overheating 40
Price Acceleration 20
Overvaluation 0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Overbuilding
Overall Assessment Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High
*
Results are based on data as of the end of June 2020 (the annual rental
apartment vacancy rates are from October 2019) and market intelligence
up to August 2020. To ensure timely information for market participants, Price Acceleration
the overvaluation framework in this edition relies on preliminary estimates
of some of the fundamental drivers of the housing market in the second There is a low level of evidence of price acceleration in
quarter of 2020. Final calculations and ratings for overvaluation will be the Calgary CMA, as the HMA maintains its rating from the
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data for these previous report. Average prices in the Calgary CMA continue
fundamental drivers becomes available.
to decline as buyers’ market conditions prevail, as well as
among weaker sales activity. The MLS® average price was
• Calgary continues to exhibit low levels of evidence of $423,311 in the second quarter of 2020, down 4% from
overheating, with the seasonally adjusted sales to new the same period in 2019. Seasonally adjusted, average prices
listing ratio (SNLR) of 55% being well below the threshold. were lower by 4% from the first quarter of 2020.
• There continues to be a moderate level of evidence of
overbuilding in the Calgary CMA, with the number of Overvaluation
completed and unsold ownership units in the second Results from the HMA model continue to show low evidence
quarter approaching a historic high. of overvaluation, as the difference between actual house prices
and predicted houses prices from fundamental factors remain
Overheating below the overvaluation threshold (Figure 2). The recent
decline in economic activity is in line with the decline in house
Under the HMA model, Calgary continues to exhibit low levels
prices. Labour income has been decreasing since the fourth
of evidence of overheating, with the seasonally adjusted sales to
quarter of 2019. Calgary continues to be affected by slower
new listing ratio (SNLR) well below the overheating threshold
population growth, especially among the 25-34 age cohort.
of 85% (Figure 1). Compared to the previous HMA, the SNLR
Although the overall population is still growing, the share of
has remained relatively flat at 55%. In the second quarter of
the 25-34 age cohort continues to shrink. As they are more
2020, both new listings and sales significantly fell compared to
likely to be first time home buyers, this continued change in
demographic profile has dampened housing demand.
15HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Figure 2: Low Evidence of Overvaluation in Calgary Figure 3: Evidence of Overbuilding in Calgary
(ownership market)
Average overvaluation estimate
Maximum overvaluation estimate
3 Threshold Completed and unsold units Threshold
Standard Deviation
20 by 10,000 population
2
16
1
12
0
8
-1 4
-2 0
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Sources: CREA, Statistics Canada, Teranet and National Bank Sources: Statistics Canada and CMHC
of Canada, and calculations by CMHC Last data point: 2020Q2
Last data point: 2020Q2
Note: The average estimate of overvaluation is the average gap
between actual house prices and their fundamental level estimated
from a group of selected models. There are five models in total, The current level of overbuilding is partially driven by recent
each of which is estimated using four measures of house prices to weakness in the oil and energy markets. The recent oil shock
generate twenty unique estimates of overvaluation. The selection
pushed prices lower, leading the energy sector, a major
of models is conducted with a set of cointegration tests, and the
selected models are estimated with Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated exporter in Calgary, to cut back on growth and current levels
Regression (DSUR). The maximum overvaluation gap is obtained of employment. This has led to a steeper decline in the young
from the model that has the largest gap between the actual price working age population (25-34), a cohort likely to absorb new
and the estimated price. The threshold is fixed at a critical value
of 1.285 for a confidence level of 90%. Overvaluation is signaled home inventory. While oil prices have somewhat recovered,
when overvaluation estimates lie above the threshold. energy companies are still limited by production quotas, limiting
any job growth and potentially slowing the pace of absorption
of new home inventories.
Overbuilding
There continues to be a moderate level of evidence of
Go Back to Table of Content
overbuilding in the Calgary CMA. Completed and unsold
ownership units per 10,000 population continue to trend
upwards above a critical level in the second quarter of
2020, approaching a historic high in the first quarter of 2001
(Figure 3). The unabsorbed inventory of single detached units
continued to increase, reaching 627 at the end of the second
quarter of 2020, up 9% from the same period in 2019. The
inventory of unabsorbed semi-detached and row units reached
738 in the recent quarter, while lower than the high of 801 in
2019, continue to trend higher. Together, they make up 59%
of total unabsorbed inventory in Calgary. As these units tend
to be more expensive, they are more likely to be affected by
a decrease in employment and higher paying jobs due
to competition from lower price condos.
16HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Saskatoon • The low rating on price acceleration is unchanged. While
Saskatoon’s inflation-adjusted MLS® average price rose by
2.4% in Q2 2020 from Q1 2020, it was up by only 1.4%
Goodson Mwale from Q2 2019. In addition, the MLS® HPI composite
Senior Analyst, Economics benchmark price7 declined by 0.6% in Q2 2020, on a
Overall, the degree of vulnerability year-over-year basis, despite edging higher from the
in the Saskatoon’s housing market preceding quarter.
remained low in Q2 2020. However,
the gap between fundamental and • Low evidence of overbuilding is still detected. The trend
observed house prices widened due in Saskatoon’s inventory of completed and unsold units
to rising unemployment and declining declined further in Q2 2020, a pattern that has been in
household incomes brought on by the effect since Q3 2016. In addition, the purpose-built rental
COVID-19 pandemic. As such, we will vacancy rate fell to 5.7% in October 2019 from 8.3% in
continue to monitor our overvaluation
the previous year. Both indicators were below their critical
indicator over the next several quarters.
thresholds for overbuilding in the second quarter of 2020.
Results Overview * The low rating on overvaluation is maintained
Saskatoon CMA but warrants monitoring
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 The HMA framework continued to detect low evidence of
overvaluation in the Saskatoon housing market. Overvaluation,
Overheating
based on the maximum overvaluation gap and the average
Price Acceleration of the gaps from all selected models, was below its critical
Overvaluation threshold in Q2 2020. However, the gap between observed
house prices and those estimated from fundamentals widened,
Overbuilding
as highlighted by the sharp increase in the average overvaluation
Overall Assessment gap between Q1 2020 and Q2 2020 in Figure 1. This could
be an early indication of overvaluation imbalances forming in
Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High
the Saskatoon market. It is also conceivable that house price
gap estimates would have likely been higher, were it not for
*
Results are based on data as of the end of June 2020 (the annual rental government financial support aimed at diminishing the negative
apartment vacancy rates are from October 2019) and market intelligence
up to August 2020. To ensure timely information for market participants, impact of COVID-19 on employment and household incomes.
the overvaluation framework in this edition relies on preliminary estimates Saskatoon’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to
of some of the fundamental drivers of the housing market in the second
quarter of 2020. Final calculations and ratings for overvaluation will be 14.1% in the second quarter from 7.1% in the first quarter of
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data for these 2020. The sharp declines in employment and hours worked
fundamental drivers becomes available. contributed to a reduction in labour income in Q2 2020
from Q1 2020.
A low degree of vulnerability remains for the
Saskatoon market
• Evidence of overheating remains low. After increasing in the
preceding two quarters, seasonally adjusted MLS® sales fell
8.3% in Q2 2020 from Q1 2020. By comparison, the decline
in new listings from Q1 2020 was more pronounced, at
12.7%. This helped push up the sales-to-new listings ratio
(SNLR) to 51% in the second quarter from 48.9% in the
first quarter of 2020. At this level, the SNLR remained
below the HMA framework’s overheating threshold of 85%.
7
Source: CREA. The MLS® HPI is based on a hybrid model that merges repeat-sales and hedonic price approaches, and reflects the contribution made by
various quantitative and qualitative housing features towards the home price.
17HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overvaluation
in Saskatoon
Average overvaluation estimate
Maximum overvaluation estimate
3 Threshold
Standard Deviation
2
1
0
-1
-2
1996
1998
2002
2004
2010
2012
2016
2018
1992
1994
2000
2006
2008
2014
2020
Sources: CREA, Statistics Canada, Teranet and National Bank
of Canada, and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
Note: The average estimate of overvaluation is the average gap
between actual house prices and their fundamental level estimated
from a group of selected models. There are five models in total,
each of which is estimated using four measures of house prices to
generate twenty unique estimates of overvaluation. The selection
of models is conducted with a set of cointegration tests, and the
selected models are estimated with Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated
Regression (DSUR). The maximum overvaluation gap is obtained
from the model that has the largest gap between the actual price
and the estimated price. The threshold is fixed at a critical value
of 1.285 for a confidence level of 90%. Overvaluation is signaled
when overvaluation estimates lie above the threshold.
Go Back to Table of Content
18HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT – DATE RELEASED – THIRD QUARTER 2020
Regina Low Evidence of Overheating
Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the
Taylor Pardy overheating indicator in the Regina CMA displayed an upward
Senior Analyst, Economics trend between Q1 and Q2 2020 while remaining well below
the critical threshold for signaling overheating (Figure 1). Under
The rating for overbuilding in the Regina
CMA moved from high to moderate normal circumstances, an upward trend in the overheating
evidence in the second quarter as a indicator would indicate bargaining power beginning to move in
result of the inventory of completed favour of sellers and upward price pressure could be expected
and unsold homes remaining significantly if the trend were to hold. However, given the unprecedented
below its critical threshold over the impact of the pandemic8, this measure requires further
past year. Evidence of overheating, dissection to provide greater context on market conditions.
price acceleration and overvaluation
The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR), which underlies the
remain low as of Q2 2020.
overheating indicator, moved upward in the second quarter
largely due to the fact that the number of new listings coming
onto the market between April and June dropped significantly
Results Overview * relative to MLS® sales. For perspective, MLS® sales declined
Regina CMA 3.6% in Q2 2020 relative to the same quarter in 2019 while
Feb. 2020 Sept. 2020 new listings declined approximately 24% in the second quarter
Overheating relative to the same period the previous year. Additionally,
while MLS® sales only saw a modest decline relative to Q1,
Price Acceleration the seasonally adjusted pace of sales in Q2 2020 remained
Overvaluation approximately 30% below the previous peak pace of sales
Overbuilding seen in Q1 2012. Regarding the trend in new listings, significant
uncertainty in economic conditions, as well as navigating the
Overall Assessment public health considerations of listing and showing one’s home
were likely contributors to the decline in listings at the onset
Degree of vulnerability Low Moderate High of the pandemic.
*
Results are based on data as of the end of June 2020 (the annual rental
apartment vacancy rates are from October 2019) and market intelligence
up to August 2020. To ensure timely information for market participants, Figure 1: Low Evidence of Overheating in Regina
the overvaluation framework in this edition relies on preliminary estimates
of some of the fundamental drivers of the housing market in the second
quarter of 2020. Final calculations and ratings for overvaluation will be % Sales-to-new listings ratio
presented in the next edition of the HMA as finalized data for these 100 Threshold
fundamental drivers becomes available.
80
60
• There continues to be low evidence of overheating and
40
price acceleration in the Regina CMA.
20
• Low evidence of overvaluation in house prices was
maintained as of Q2 2020 with limited movement in the 0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
average overvaluation estimate. This was largely a result
of declines in both house prices as well as fundamental
factors underpinning prices. Sources: CREA and calculations by CMHC
Last data point: 2020Q2
• The Regina CMA moved from high to moderate evidence
of overbuilding as a result of unsold new home inventories
remaining significantly below the critical threshold over the
past year. Meanwhile the purpose-built apartment vacancy
rate remained above its critical threshold as of Q2 2020
at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
8
The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in the Regina CMA peaked at 11.6% in June relative to 7.2% in January 2020. Labour Force Survey:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410029401.
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