INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB

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INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY
       STRATEGY REPORT
          (2020-2024)
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
CONTENTS

FOREWORD                                                      1    Figure 17 Turkish insurance sector total coverage             36
1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                           3    Figure 18 Insurance sectors support to economic growth        37
2 STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR                       9    Figure 19 Role of insurance in fostering investments
2.1. Strong demand fundamentals                              11    (European example)                                            38
2.2. Competitive market environment with successful growth 13      Figure 20 Catastrophe recovery role of insurance sector       39
2.3. Challenges on Technical Profitability                   14    Figure 21 Combined ratio and technical results breakdown
2.4. Turkey’s potential for increasing insurance penetration 16    by key branches (2018)                                        46
     2.4.1. Motor Third Party Liability insurance            20    Figure 22 Source of financing of total healthcare expenditure
     2.4.2. Property insurance                               22    in Turkey                                                     49
     2.4.3. Health insurance                                 25    Figure 23 Coverage of public healthcare systems in select
     2.4.4. Motor own damage insurance                       28    countries                                                     50
     2.4.5. Life insurance and Pensions                      30    Figure 24 Comparison of pensions contribution p.a.
3 ROLE OF INSURANCE IN SOCIETY                               33    penetration vs. life insurance penetration                    51
3.1. Economic role of insurance                              36    Figure 25 Breakdown of life premiums and # of policies
3.2. Financial role of insurance                             37    by sales approach                                             52
3.3. Disciplining role of insurance                          38    Figure 26 Overview of economics of agency channel             53
3.4. Risk management role of insurance                       39    Figure 27 Penetration potential                               59
4 BARRIERS AND STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE                        Figure 28 Target state vs. today in key branches              60
INSURANCE SECTOR IN TURKEY                                   41    Figure 29 Expected GWP in each scenario                       61
4.1. Barriers related to general context                     42    Figure 30 Expected penetration level in each scenario         62
4.2. Barriers related to market infrastructure               44    Figure 31 Vision and objectives of the insurance sector       64
4.3. Barriers related to branches                            45    Figure 32 Strategic initiatives                               65
4.4. Barriers related to distribution channels               53    Figure 33 Case examples of insurance sector and
4.5. Barriers related to regulations                         55    government collaboration in the UK                            67
SECTOR VISION, STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES, AND 		                        Figure 34 Insurance awareness program best practices
ROAD-MAP                                                     57    in select countries                                           68
5.1. Growth potential and objectives                         58    Figure 35 Case example of Association of British Insurers’
5.2. Vision and strategic objectives                         64    self-regulatory role                                          70
5.3. Strategic initiatives                                   66    Figure 36 Key consideration in regulator set-up               71
5.4. Strategic road-map                                      82    Figure 37 Case example: Regulator set-up in Austria           72
                                                                   Figure 38 Case example: Regulator set-up in the UK            73
LIST OF FIGURES                                                    Figure 39 Case example: Regulator set-up in Spain             74
Figure 1 Key population statistics                            11   Figure 40 Role of PMI in national health system in select
Figure 2 Gross written insurance premiums and GDP 		               European countries                                            76
growth rate                                                   12   Figure 41 Micro-insurance offerings targeting micro,
Figure 3 Gross written premiums in Turkey                     13   small and medium enterprises                                  78
Figure 4 Insurance sector profitability in non-life and life 		    Figure 42 Approach to address protection gaps                 78
branches                                                      14   Figure 43 Case example: Apprenticeship model in the UK        79
Figure 5 Combined ratio in non-life branch (2014-2018)        15   Figure 44 Insurance databases in select European countries 80
Figure 6 Key economic factors imposing challenge on 		             Figure 45 Role of brokers and agencies in select countries    81
insurance sector                                              16   Figure 46 Licensing requirements for insurance roles
Figure 7 Average income by income bands (in deciles)          17   in Spain                                                      82
Figure 8 Median income and insurance & pensions annual             Figure 47 Strategic initiative prioritization                 83
contribution penetration                                      18   Figure 48 Time-plan of the strategic road-map                 84
Figure 9 Factors affecting insurance penetration by branch    19
Figure 10 Modelling of MTPL penetration                       20   LIST OF TABLES
Figure 11 Modelling of property insurance penetration         23   Table 1: Sanctions against uninsured vehicles in
Figure 12 Property insurance practices in France              24   MTPL branch                                        21
Figure 13 Modelling of health insurance penetration           26   Table 4 Key characteristics of micro-insurance     48
Figure 14 Private medical insurance in Slovenia               27
Figure 15 Modelling of motor own damage insurance
penetration                                                   29
Figure 16 Modelling of life insurance and pensions
contribution penetration                                      31
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)       1

FOREWORD

VARIOUS STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSURANCE AND PENSION INDUSTRY AND TO
INCREASE INSURANCE PENETRATION.
TSB PERFORMED A COMMON WORK WITH MEMBER INSURANCE
COMPANIES TO ADDRESS THE STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES FOR
THE GROWTH POTENTIAL AND TO DETERMINE THE 5 YEARS ROAD
MAP OF THE SECTOR.

As a neutral and reliable authority,       of 20% in the last five years, current      been conducted and international
the vision of the Insurance                2% penetration rate is low compared         benchmarking studies have been
Association of Turkey is the reference     to peer countries with similar income       carried out. Growth potential of the
institution in the field of insurance      levels. Over the past five years,           sector has been identified and the
and private pension through                motor branch have been the driver of        barriers that the sector is facing.
conducting research, activities of         non-life insurance, credit protection       In light of the sector’s identified
publicity and education, organizing        branch and, due to incentives,              barriers, a new vision, 5 strategic
and coordinating the activities            pensions have been the driver of life       objectives and a road-map with 14
of all stakeholders in the sector.         insurance. Given the current growth         initiatives to achieve this vision have
Representing the sector at the             potential of the sector and future          been specified.
highest level, TSB conducts studies        acceleration in GDP growth of Turkey,
                                                                                       We express our gratitude to
in line with the sector’s needs, seeks     the role of the sector is expected
                                                                                       stakeholders of the sector for their
solutions for the sectoral issues          to become more critical than ever.
                                                                                       valuable contributions to this study.
and contributes to the sustainable         Furthermore, age demographics and
                                                                                       We hope that by shaping the sectoral
development of the sector.                 expected population increase rate
                                                                                       practices and policies, “Sector
                                           are promising in terms of the size of
In that regard, TSB has decided to                                                     Strategy Report” will be beneficial
                                           the population that will create further
prepare a roadmap to guide the                                                         for our sector, community and other
                                           demand for insurance products in
sector and to shape the sector                                                         stakeholders.
                                           short and middle-term.
strategy in Turkey.
                                           However, there are number of
Insurance constitutes one of the
                                           structural barriers in the way of
key pillars of modern societies.
                                           sector development and penetration
At its core, insurance creates
                                           increase. TSB has conducted a
social benefit through pooling
                                           study with insurance companies to
and distribution of individuals’ and
                                           address these barriers and define
companies’ risks. In face of adverse
                                           a five-year road map for the sector.
events, insurers uphold security and
                                           With the outcomes of the Strategy
stability in the society by covering the
                                           Determination Workshop on February
losses incurred by individuals and
                                           7, 2019, the Perception Survey
companies.
                                           report, which was also made by
Turkish insurance sector, which dates      the Association, constituted other
back to 1870s, is going through            important sources. To draw a clear
critical times. While the premiums in      picture of the sector, meetings
the sector have grown with a CAGR          with various stakeholders have
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
2   INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   3

1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3%
                                         State and potential of the sector            years. As past successful growth
                                                                                      made a clear investment case
                                         Turkish insurance sector has
                                                                                      for foreign capital, numerous
                                         achieved strong growth in the
                                                                                      international insurance companies
                                         past few years and the insurance
                                                                                      have commenced their operations
                                         penetration rate of gross premiums
IDEAL PENETRATION                        and annual pension contributions to
                                                                                      in Turkey. 62 insurance companies
                                                                                      operating in the sector and their
                                         GDP has reached to 2%. Sector can
LEVEL OF TURKEY                          be characterized under 3 themes:
                                                                                      market shares indicate strong
                                                                                      competition dynamics and a
WITH INCOME LEVEL                        • Sector has strong demand                   competitive market.
                                           fundamentals: Demand
                                                                                    • There is potential for higher
                                           fundamentals supported by young
                                                                                      insurance penetration: Analyses
                                           population and expected growth
                                                                                      of cross-country penetration
                                           after economic stabilization are
                                                                                      rates and income levels have
                                           promising for the insurance sector.
                                                                                      shown that Turkish insurance
                                           Young population constitutes a
                                                                                      sector has the potential to reach
                                           significant component of the Turkish
                                                                                      higher penetration rate. While
                                           population, hence there is a sizable
                                                                                      current penetration rate of 2% is
                                           population which is expected to
                                                                                      a significant achievement, there
                                           demand insurance products. In line
                                                                                      is still a long way to provide a
                                           with that, companies and individuals
                                                                                      better protection against risks for
                                           need protection against number of
                                                                                      companies and individuals.
                                           risks which require social transfer
                                           mechanisms for efficient financing.
                                           Currently, insurance sector is filling
                                           that role in the society and intends
                                           to develop and expand that role.
                                         • Competitive market environment
                                           with successful growth over the
                                           past: The sector has achieved
                                           strong growth in both life and
                                           non-life branches in the past
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   5

Considering income levels in Turkey,        Just as it is the case in other              Branches: Sustainability of non-
insurance sector has potential to           countries, insurance sector is critical      life insurance is threatened by the
reach 3% penetration. Yet, globally         for Turkey given its roles. As the           heavy focus on motor products and
there are countries which have              insurance sector develops further,           technical losses incurred in MTPL.
reached penetration rates beyond            it is expected to fulfill its role better    Meanwhile, there are significant
their fair share. Key differentiator        and make greater contributions to            protection gaps in many branches,
for these countries is positioning of       Turkey’s economic development. In            implying high vulnerability against
insurance by the public authorities.        that regard, it is crucial to address        adverse events for many households
Steps to be taken in this area, Turkey      the barriers and structural challenges       and businesses. In health, broad
reaching a penetration level of over        ahead of the sectoral development.           coverage by universal health
4% of the insurance sector may                                                           insurance compared to international
                                            Barriers and structural challenges
allow positive decomposed between                                                        benchmarks, reduces the need
                                            of the insurance sector in Turkey
countries.                                                                               for private health insurance. Main
                                            Barriers and structural challenges of        challenges in life are life insurance
Role of insurance in society
                                            the sector are assessed under five           positioning and life insurance gap.
Main function of insurance is to            pillars:                                     Also, sector-wide innovation has been
provide protection for individuals and                                                   limited.
                                            General context: Under this pillar,
businesses against adverse events
                                            societal challenges or challenges            Distribution channels: This pillar
out of their control. When certain
                                            related to macroeconomic conditions          analyzes the challenges pertaining
risks realize, insurance supports
                                            have been addressed. National                to distribution channels. It is
recovery processes of individuals and
                                            income levels and effects of relevant        observed that particularly agencies
businesses by compensating their
                                            developments are discussed under             are struggling to meet the new
losses. In addition to that, insurance
                                            challenges related to macroeconomic          requirements that have emerged
sector takes on 4 critical roles:
                                            conditions. As national income level         in line with market developments.
• Economic role: Insurance                  determines purchasing power and              Given the emerging customer trends,
  supports overall economic growth          demand for insurance products,               emerging technologies, fragmented
  though social transfer of risks           the penetration rate in Turkey is            market structure composed of small
  that individuals and entities face        low compared to the peer middle              agencies, limited collaboration of
  and supports new ventures and             income countries. Recognition of             agencies with insurers in employee
  innovation. Insurance supports            role of insurance, sector cohesion,          development and technological
  economic stability and protects           consumer trust and awareness,                investments, business model of
  investments.                              prevalence of risky business model in        agencies is under threat. Digitalization
                                            non-life are the other challenges that       in distribution channels has also
• Financial role: Insurance
                                            are analyzed under this pillar.              been limited due to the constraints
  companies create long-term
                                                                                         such as regulatory requirements.
  funding enabled through assets and        Market infrastructure: This
                                                                                         As distribution channels hold the
  liability maturity. It can also provide   pillar examines institutions and
                                                                                         customer data and relationship,
  counter-cyclical financing given long-    capabilities of the sector. While the
                                                                                         insurance companies were not able
  term and predictable liabilities.         sector needs an institutionally and
                                                                                         to deepen their relationship with
                                            financially independent regulatory
• Disciplining role of insurance:                                                        customers.
                                            body to provide required checks
  Increase awareness of risks
                                            and balances, the association
  across sectors and individuals and
                                            needs to position itself to promote
  promotes self-protection against
                                            sector priorities and act as a strong
  risks.
                                            advocate of these priorities. Most
• Risk management role: Provide             significant challenges in terms
  protection through pooling of             of capabilities are constraints
  risks and undertakes burden from          in technical and managerial
  social state in help enterprises and      resources, limited development
  individuals.                              of next generation technical
                                            capabilities (pricing, claims handling,
                                            underwriting) and limited use of joint
                                            data and analytics.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

VISION
                                         Regulation: Some of the challenges         growth and penetration rate that
                                         stated under this pillar limit sector’s    is higher than expected levels in
                                         ability to adapt global developments       cross country comparisons. Launch
                                         in the sector. Requirements such           of complementary pension system
                                         as physical policies and signatures        that is currently in the agenda,
BECOMING A STRONG                        restrict the digitalization of             closer collaboration with public and
                                         processes; complex and expensive           regulatory authorities can help the
AND SUSTAINABLE                          product development processes (due         sector reach a size of 300-350 billion
                                         to approval requirements) restrict         TL in the next 5 years. In this case,
INSURANCE SECTOR                         innovation in the sector. While            by increasing the penetration rate by
TO PROVIDE A                             unclarity around sector standards
                                         and inefficient financial controls make
                                                                                    another 1%, with a penetration rate
                                                                                    of 4-4.5%, the performance of the
SIGNIFICANT                              it more difficult to constrain the         sector will be higher than expected.
                                         undesired practices in the sector,
CONTRIBUTION TO                          regulatory unclarities in customer
                                                                                    Strategic Objective 1 – Improve
                                                                                    customer trust, awareness and
                                         rights and data protection create
TURKEY’S ECONOMIC                        challenges regarding customer
                                                                                    engagement: Actions regarding
                                                                                    consumer-focused approach and
AND SOCIAL                               protection. It is required to perform
                                         a critical and detailed review of
                                                                                    protection of consumer are critical for
                                                                                    reaching this objective. These steps
DEVELOPMENT                              regulations aiming consistency
                                                                                    include clarification of contracts,
                                         and alignment with technological
                                                                                    better monitoring of customer
                                         developments
                                                                                    satisfaction, clarification of code of
                                         Sector vision, strategic objectives,       conduct, increasing awareness of
                                         road map                                   distribution channels. This objective
                                                                                    also includes initiatives around
                                         With the critical role of the sector for
                                                                                    increasing insurance awareness
                                         social and economic development,
                                                                                    through the following an engaging
                                         growth potential and structural
                                                                                    communication strategy. Finally,
                                         challenges considered, a new vision,
                                                                                    strengthening self-regulation of the
                                         strategic objectives and a road map
                                                                                    sector to prevent deviations from
                                         to reach the objectives have been
                                                                                    ethical practices and increasing
                                         defined.
                                                                                    sector-wide collaboration through the
                                         The strategic vision of the sector         reform of the sector association is
                                         is to “Establish a strong insurance        vital for this objective.
                                         sector which takes an important role
                                                                                    Strategic Objective 2 – Revise a
                                         in building Turkey’s future”. To achieve
                                                                                    modern institutional structure:
                                         this vision, 14 initiatives around
                                                                                    Set up of an independent and
                                         5 strategic objectives have been
                                                                                    strong regulator is crucial for
                                         defined.
                                                                                    the development of the sector.
                                         With the implementation of the             The regulator will contribute to
                                         identified initiatives, insurance          trustworthiness and efficiency of the
                                         penetration of 2% is expected to           sector by taking an active role in
                                         reach 3% in the next five years and        increasing the clarity and consistency
                                         the sector is expected to reach a          of the regulations and introducing
                                         size of 300-350 billion TL with 22%        a stricter mechanism to implement
                                         CAGR. With support from public             financial controls. Another initiative
                                         authorities, Turkey can unlock further     under this objective is adoption of
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)    7

future-looking, stable and consistent      Deterrence can be increased                  help it respond adequately to the
regulations. With the adoption             by revising the penalties and                evolving needs of all stakeholders
of more agile product approval             collaborating in detecting and tracking      in a changing world. One of the
processes and establishment of             leakages with the authorities.               important steps under this objective
“sandbox” framework to support                                                          is enhancing the skill set of talent
                                           Strategic Objective 4 – Expand
innovation, the sector’s capacity is                                                    pool (in technical and managerial
                                           insurance offerings and engage
expected to be enhanced. Engaging                                                       roles). This initiative covers action
                                           with emerging ecosystems: This
communication strategy and reform                                                       items such as expansion of sector
                                           objective is primarily concerned with
of TSB mentioned in previous                                                            talent pool, creation of talent skilling
                                           proliferation of insurance products,
objective will support the modern                                                       programs. With improvement of
                                           increase in penetration rates and
institutional structure.                                                                sector data sharing and analytics
                                           minimization of protection gaps,
                                                                                        capabilities and creation of
Strategic Objective 3 – Develop            hence primary initiative for this
                                                                                        databases that enable decision-
close and effective partnership            objective would be increasing product
                                                                                        making, it is aimed to ameliorate
with the government and                    and channel variety to promote
                                                                                        technical capability of the sector.
regulator: This objective entails          inclusiveness. This initiative suggests
                                                                                        Finally, agencies which constitute
initiatives for working closely with       increasing awareness around basic
                                                                                        an important stakeholder should be
the government and the regulator           insurance products (e.g. casco
                                                                                        supported in preparing for future
to reduce the burden on the public         and home insurance), cultivating
                                                                                        with emphasis on their financial
sector and to develop the insurance        products already getting traction
                                                                                        sustainability, positioning, ability to
sector. One of the areas to work           (e.g. cyber risks, credit and surety
                                                                                        keep up with digitalized world and
together is devising the role of           products), strengthening inclusive
                                                                                        should be assisted in working more
insurance in health system. Role           value propositions in insurance (e.g.
                                                                                        efficiently.
sharing between public and private         takaful). In increasing the variety of
sectors is critical for the development    products, services and channels,
of private medical insurance. Another      micro insurance products stand out
working area would be reduction of         as they target low-income households
total cost of MTPL and improvement         and SMEs. Another important
of branch profitability. Efficient use     initiative to note is improvement of
of data, cost reduction through            sector data sharing and analytics
preventive measures, more granular         capabilities. As part of this initiative,
differentiation in pricing in the short-   collaboration with authorities is
run, switch to free market system          necessary for addressing regulatory
in the long-run is envisioned under        barriers for digital products and
this initiative. Repositioning of life     services, and implementation of clear
insurance considering expected             and consistent standards.
pension system second Pillar is
                                           Strategic Objective 5 – Enhance
another important initiative for this
                                           sector participants’ capabilities
objective. This initiative requires
                                           and sophistication: Previous
determining the tax benefit in life
                                           strategic objectives aim to address
products and products that are
                                           the relationship of the sector with
suitable to the institutional agenda
                                           the customer, public and regulatory
and designing the support of
                                           authorities and to increase efficiency
public authorities. Finally, through
                                           of the sector. Final strategic objective
increased deterrence and stickiness,
                                           is structured around building
improvement of compliance in
                                           the sector’s own capabilities to
compulsory lines is recommended.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT - (2020-2024) - TSB
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INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   9

2
STATE AND THE POTENTIAL
OF THE SECTOR
10   INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

20%
                                          In last five years, the Turkish          • 3. Technical profitability is
                                          insurance sector has grown with a          challenged by structural hurdles
                                          CAGR of 20%. Insurance penetration         and the sector is open to the
                                          which covers non-life, life and annual     macroeconomic effects: Structural
                                          pension contributions has reached          hurdles affect the sector adversely,
CAGR OF INSURANCE                         to 2%. Yet the market is heavily           limiting technical profitability in the
SECTOR IN THE LAST                        focused on motor products. Sector
                                          is struggling to achieve a technical
                                                                                     non-life branch. Non-life profitability
                                                                                     has shrunk over the past years,
FIVE YEARS                                profit, hence relies on investment         delivering similar returns to risk-
                                          income to make a net profit.               free rate in 2018. Profitability levels
                                                                                     are above international markets in
                                          Market can be characterized under 4
                                                                                     life and pensions branch.
                                          main themes:
                                                                                   • 4. There is a potential for higher
                                          • 1. Strong demand fundamentals:
                                                                                     penetration level: Insurance
                                            Insurance market in Turkey is
                                                                                     penetration is highly dependent
                                            underpenetrated and possess
                                                                                     on income levels (i.e. ability to
                                            upside opportunity given its
                                                                                     afford insurance) of a country, yet
                                            demographics and economic
                                                                                     at branch level there are various
                                            growth potential.
                                                                                     other drivers for penetration and
                                          • 2. Competitive market                    unique practices emerge to achieve
                                            environment with successful              penetration above fair share. In
                                            growth: Insurance sector is a            that regard, there is an opportunity
                                            prominent sector in Turkey with          to increase the penetration level in
                                            broad set of stakeholders. The           Turkey.
                                            sector has grown with a CAGR of
                                            20% in the last five years, making a
                                            clear investment thesis. Competitive
                                            market context is established
                                            across business branches.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)       11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         70%
  2.1. Strong demand fundamentals                                                                                                                                                  64 years old, pinpointing a large
                                                                                                                                                                                   insurable population, and ~25% of the
  Insurance market in Turkey is
                                                                                                                                                                                   population is younger than 15 years
  underpenetrated and possess upside
                                                                                                                                                                                   old indicating strong demand in the
  opportunity given its demographics
                                                                                                                                                                                   mid-term. Furthermore, population
  and economic growth potential.
                                                                                                                                                                                   growth rate is substantially higher                                                                   TARGET POPULATION
  Turkey has considerably younger                                                                                                                                                  than that of many countries in
                                                                                                                                                                                   Europe.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         BETWEEN AGE OF 15-
  population compared to European
  markets, yet the potential has not                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     64
  yet been fully translated in overall
  insurance sector penetration. ~70%
  of the population is between 15-

                                                                                                                                                                                    Figure 1 Key population statistics1
  Population size and growth                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Population by age group
  CEE countries, 2017, MM                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Turkey vs. EU 27, 2017
                                                                                                       Population size 2018 (MM)
                                          80.8

                                                    46.3

                                                                   325.9

                                                                               11.4

                                                                                            66.0

                                                                                                         60.6

                                                                                                                 64.8

                                                                                                                            10.6

                                                                                                                                          5.7

                                                                                                                                                    17.1

                                                                                                                                                                  10.8

                                                                                                                                                                           144.0

                                                                                                                                                                                    38.0

                                                                                                                                                                                              82.7

                                                                                                                                                                                                         19.6

                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9.8

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                42.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            7.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      65+

                             1.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     55-64

                             1.0%
Population growth CAGR (%)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     45-54

                             0.5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Age group

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     35-44

                             0.0%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     25-34

                             -0.5%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     15-24
                             -1.0%
12            INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

Size of insurance market is closely correlated with overall economic development. Over the past decade, gross written
premium evolution resembled GDP growth pattern. Looking forward, GDP growth is promising and is expected to
outperform many developed European markets.

                                     Figure 2 Gross written insurance premiums and GDP growth rate 2
Historical GDP and insurance GWP growth                                                GDP growth rates1 average in selected countries
2006–2018, (year-on-year change in %)                                                  %

32%                                                                             1.00     6.5
                                                                                                6.1
30%                                                                             0.95
                                 Enforcement of rigid                                    6.0
                                                                                0.90
28%                            MTPL tariffs temporarily
                                 decoupled GDP and                              0.85     5.5
26%                             GWP growth in 2016                              0.80
                                                                                         5.0
24%                                                                             0.75

22%                                                                             0.70     4.5
                                                                                0.65
20%                                                                                      4.0
                                                                                0.60
18%                                                                             0.55     3.5                                                                           3.3
16%                                                                             0.50                                                                                         3.2
                                                                                0.45     3.0
14%                                                                                                   2.7
                                                                                0.40
12%                                                                                      2.5
                                                                                0.35                                                                 2.2
10%                                                                             0.30     2.0                                               1.9 1.9
                                                                                                                               1.8                              1.8
    8%                                                                          0.25                                    1.6
                                                                                         1.5
                                                                                0.20                                 1.2             1.3
    6%
                                Historically there has been a                   0.15     1.0
    4%
                                strong relationship between GDP                 0.10                           0.5
    2%                          and GWP, both in nominal and in                          0.5                0.4
                                                                                0.05
                                real terms
    0%                                                                          0.00     0.0
                                                                                                  Turkey

                                                                                                             Italy

                                                                                                                      France

                                                                                                                                Germany

                                                                                                                                             Spain

                                                                                                                                                      United Kingdom

                                                                                                                                                                         Poland
     2006       2008       2010        2012       2014       2016        2018

      Nominal GDP growth                 Nominal insurance GWP growth                                  2013-2017               2017-2023

2
    Constant prices (2010); Source: Worldbank, Turkish Insurance Association
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   13

                                                                                             55
2.2. Competitive market                           is established across business
environment with successful                       branches.
growth                                            Insurance sector has reached ~55                              BILLION TL
Insurance sector is a prominent                   BN TL in gross written premiums,
sector in Turkey with broad set of                growing with 20% CAGR over the
                                                  past 5 years. Non-life branches
                                                                                             GROSS WRITTEN
stakeholders. The sector has grown
with a CAGR of 20% in the last five               account for the majority of the market     PREMIUMS OF THE
years, making a clear investment                  and share of life has been stable.
                                                                                             INSURANCE SECTOR
thesis. Competitive market context

                                              Figure 3 Gross written premiums in Turkey3
Non-life and Life GWP                                                                                                Segment growth
2014–2018, BN TL                                                                                                      (CAGR ’14-18’)
    55                                                                                                54.7
                                                                                                       13%              21%
    50                                                                                                 (6.9)
                                                                                46.6
                                                           20%                                         11%
    45
                                                                                15%                    (6.2)            21%
                                                                                (6.8)
                                                           40.5
    40
                                                            12%
                                                                                11%
                                                            (5.0)
                                                                                (5.0)
    35
                                                            10%
                                     31.0                   (4.2)
    30                               12%
                                     (3.8)
                  26.0               11%
    25             13%               (3.4)
                   (3.3)
                   11%
                   (2.9)
    20                                                                                                                  20%

    15

    10
                   76%                77%                    77%                 75%                    76%
                  (19.8)             (23.8)                 (31.2)              (34.7)                 (41.5)
      5

      0
                  2014              2015                   2016                 2017                   2018

           Life            Health   P&C

3
    Source: TSB

Insurance ecosystem in Turkey                     chambers. Insurance market is              Market has attracted significant
consists of a number of key                       fragment with 62 players, and total        foreign investment, and majority of
stakeholder groups – Associations                 premiums or fund size of top 5 player      the top players are subsidiaries of
& Committees, Regulator &                         in non-life, life and pensions market      global insurance incumbents. Share
Supervisor, Consumers, Ministries,                account for 44%, 53% and 72%               of the foreign capital in the sector
Insurance companies, Distributors                 respectively, indicating competitive       remains high over the past 5 years at
and various supporting entities such              market environment.                        around 70%.
as loss adjusters, pools and sector
14          INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

2.3. Challenges on Technical                                profitability in the non-life branches.                                      international markets in life and
Profitability                                               Non-life profitability has shrunk                                            pensions branch. Depreciation of
                                                            over the past years, delivering                                              currency and inflation are negatively
Structural hurdles affect the                               similar returns to risk-free rate in                                         affecting profitability.
sector adversely, limiting technical                        2018. Profitability levels are above

                                     Figure 4 Insurance sector profitability in non-life and life branches4
ROE for Life insurance companies in Turkey                                                Benchmark vs. European peers – Life
2014–2018, TRTK2YT                                                                        2016

40%                                                                         37.6%         40%                                                                                                                                                          38%

                                                           31.3%                                                                                                                                                                        31%
30%                                                                                       30%
                                                                                                                                                                                    27%
                                           25.0%

                                                                            23.1%                                                                                                                                      20%
20%                         18.0%                                                         20%                                                     18%
           16.3%
                                                           16.5%            18.1%
           14.0%            14.7%          14.6%                                                                                                                                             12% 12%
10%                                                                                       10%                          9%        9%
                                                           11.5%                                             8%                          7%                           7%
            9.0%            9.7%            9.6%                                                                                                           5%
                                                                                                    2%
 0%                                                                                        0%

           2014             2015           2016            2017             2018
                                                                                                   Germany

                                                                                                             Denmark

                                                                                                                       Finland

                                                                                                                                 Italy

                                                                                                                                         Norway

                                                                                                                                                  Poland

                                                                                                                                                           Slovenia

                                                                                                                                                                      Switzerland

                                                                                                                                                                                    Brazil

                                                                                                                                                                                             Hungary

                                                                                                                                                                                                       United States

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Czech Republic

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Turkey, 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Turkey, 2018
   ROE         Risk Free Rate of TR         Risk Free Rate+Equity premium

ROE for Non‑Life insurance companies in Turkey                                            Benchmark vs. European peers – Non‑Life
2014-2018, TRTK2YT                                                                        2016

25%                                                                         23.1%         25%

20%                                                       16.5%            18.1%
                                                                                          20%                                                                         20%                                                                              20%
            14.0%            14.7%         14.6%                                                                       19%               20%
15%                                                                                                                                                                                          18%
                                                          15.1%                                              16%
             9.7%            9.7%          13.6%                                          15%                                                                                                                                           15%
10%
                                                                                                                                                                                    13%
 5%                                                                                       10%
                                                                                                                                 8%               9%                                                                   9%
            9.0%                            9.6%           11.5%            20.1%
 0%
                             -7.4%                                                                                                                                                                     5%
                                                                                           5%       4%
 -5%                                                                                                                                                       3%

-10%                                                                                       0%

           2014             2015           2016            2017             2018
                                                                                                   Germany

                                                                                                             Denmark

                                                                                                                       Finland

                                                                                                                                 Italy

                                                                                                                                         Norway

                                                                                                                                                  Poland

                                                                                                                                                           Slovenia

                                                                                                                                                                      Switzerland

                                                                                                                                                                                    Brazil

                                                                                                                                                                                             Hungary

                                                                                                                                                                                                       United States

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Czech Republic

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Turkey, 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Turkey, 2018

   ROE              Risk Free Rate of TR            Risk Free rate + Equity Premium

4
  Source: TSB, OECD global insurance trends report, Thompson Reuters Datastream ;
Note: Yearly average of 2 year Turkish government bond yield (TRTK2YT) is used as risk-free rate. A constant 5% equity is assumed.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)        15

Furthermore, sector was compensating negative technical results with returns from investments, which are mainly
investment in low risk local investment vehicles. These vehicles performance is mainly dependent on the interest rates
in Turkey. Negative technical results mainly stem from dysfunctional economics of motor third party liability insurance
products.

                                            Figure 5 Combined ratio in non-life branch (2014-2018)5
Net combined ratios for Non-Life insurance companies
2014-2018

                                                              115%                                          111%
                                        103%                     9%        104%           106%                 7%
Other expense                              8%                               8%               8%                              Historically, non-life
                                                                 22%                                          21%
Distribution commission                   22%                              21%              21%                            insurance companies
                                                                                                                             have been making
                                                                                                                            underwriting losses
Loss ratio                                                                                                                     on their books
                                                                                                                            as evidenced by high
                                                                                                                              combined ratios

                                          73%                    84%       75%              77%               82%

                                          2014                  2015       2016             2017             2018               The underwriting
                                                                                                                               losses have been
                                                                                                                                  compensated
Net technical result                                                                                                              by substantial
excl. allocated investment                -213                  -2,150     -370            -901              -2,367                incomes on
income (MM TL)                                                                                                                     investment,
                                                                                                                               which have led to
…And including                                                                                                                 relatively high RoE
investment income                         1,084                 -418       1,830           2,268             3,273               in the industry
(MM TL)

5
    Source: TSB, SDK, OECD global insurance trends report, AXCO analysis
16             INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

Recent macro-economic                                             and the fall in inflation, is seen as a    • Interest rates: Life insurance is
developments are expected to                                      positive development.                        highly dependent on credit-linked
challenge sector in near and mid-term                                                                          life products. In 2017, credit-linked
                                                             • Inflation: Affordability is very
future in three folds:                                                                                         products account for ca. 75% of
                                                               important factor in insurance,
                                                                                                               premiums and 55% of policies.
• Currency depreciation: Motor                                 high inflation results in loss of
                                                                                                               Interest rates have increased from
  lines account for ca. 50% of                                 purchasing power, hence limits
                                                                                                               low 10%s to above 20% in the last
  insurance, devaluation affects                               disposable income for buying
                                                                                                               few years. High interest rates curb
  insurers in two-folds, first motor                           insurance. Furthermore, margins
                                                                                                               lending volumes which affects credit
  demand decreases as vehicles                                 in real terms are severely affected
                                                                                                               linked business, such as term-life
  prices spike in local currency                               as insurance prices do not adjust
                                                                                                               dependent life insurance business,
  terms, second MTPL premiums are                              real-time given the policy durations.
                                                                                                               casco and property insurance.
  linked to Turkish Liras, yet cost of                         On the other hand, in the second
                                                                                                               On the other hand, in the second
  spare parts increase with foreign                            half of the year, the stabilization in
                                                                                                               half of the year, the stabilization
  exchange, resulting in increased                             the economy, with the stabilization
                                                                                                               in the economy, with the fall in
  claims costs. On the other hand,                             of exchange rates and the fall
                                                                                                               interest rate, is seen as a positive
  in the second half of the year, the                          in inflation, is seen as a positive
                                                                                                               development.
  stabilization in the economy, with                           development.
  the stabilization of exchange rates

                                 Figure 6 Key economic factors imposing challenge on insurance sector6
Significant currency devaluation                             Significant inflation                           Significant increase in interest rates
FX rates                                                     Consumer price index                            TRLIBOR1M

    7.5                                                       24%                                            30%
    7.0                                                       22%
    6.5
                                                              20%
    6.0
                                                              18%
    5.5
                                                                                                             20%
    5.0                                                       16%

    4.5                                                       14%
    4.0                                                       12%
    3.5                                                       10%
                                                                                                             10%
    3.0
                                                                  8%
    2.5
                                                                  6%
    2.0
    1.5                                                           4%

    1.0                                                           2%                                          0%
          07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18                          07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18         07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

             USD/TL               EUR/TL

6
    Source: Turkstat, Oxford Economics, S&P market intelligence

2.4. Turkey’s potential for                                  Key factors affecting the insurance               to increase the role of private
increasing insurance penetration                             penetration can be examined under 3               sector (ex: incentives, compulsory
                                                             main categories:                                  insurance etc.).
Insurance penetration is highly
dependent on income levels (i.e.                             • Macroeconomic factors: Income                 • Cultural and geographical factors:
ability to afford insurance) of a                              level, workforce participation,                 Frequency of the risk realization (ex:
country, yet at branch level there are                         insurance affordability, economic               high risk of hail storm, hurricanes
various other drivers for penetration                          growth, population growth, share of             etc.), risk awareness and social
and unique practices emerge to                                 urban population.                               solidarity.
achieve penetration above fair share.                        • Role of the government:
In that regard, there is an opportunity                        Government’s role in coping with
to increase the penetration level in                           risks (ex: role of government in
Turkey.                                                        disaster financing), mechanisms
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)      17

From insureds perspective, insurance ownership has a direct link with an individual’s income level. Buying behavior can
be characterized in four stages:

                                           Figure 7 Average income by income bands (in deciles)7
Mean annual income by income decile in Turkey
2017, K USD

                   Significantly below                             Unable to save                             Compulsory Short‑term Long‑term
                         poverty                                                                                           risks      risks
    20                                                                                                                                        19.2

    15

    10
                                                                                                                               8.8

                                                                                                                  6.8
                                                                                                   5.6
     5                                                                               4.7
                                                                     4.0
                                                        3.4
                                           2.9
                                2.3
             1.4

     0
          1st Decile        2nd Decile   3rd Decile   4th Decile   5th Decile      6th Decile    7th Decile     8th Decile   9th Decile   10th Decile

7
    Source: TurkStat, Türk-iş

STAGE 1: Unaffordable                                 STAGE 3: Short-term risks                          the income (i.e. affordability) is, the
                                                                                                         higher number of potential insured
Individuals who do not have enough                    As assets of an individual reaches
                                                                                                         people are.
income and do not own assets/                         a certain level, ownership of health
properties to protect therefore                       insurance, property insurance, short-              In Turkey, equivalized famine line
don’t buy (and cannot afford)                         term life insurance and personal                   (6.4 K TL/1.8 K USD), minimum
core insurance protection (some                       accident insurance increases. This is              wage (17 K TL/4.6 K USD) and
penetration in unemployment                           the first step of voluntary insurance,             equivalized poverty line (21 K
insurance, credit-linked life, micro                  as the individual has properties or                TL/5.8 K USD) create inherent
insurance can be considered here,                     risks to insure and owns compulsory                barriers in increasing penetration by
but it does not affect the overall                    protections.                                       limiting the addressable population
profile of the group).                                                                                   with conventional insurance
                                                      STAGE 4: Long-term risks
                                                                                                         coverages.
STAGE 2: Compulsory insurance
                                                      Voluntary protection against long
Individuals who have enough income                    term risks such as retirement and
to make down payment on a car                         death happen typically after covering
loan or a mortgage typically become                   for short term risks and requires
eligible for compulsory insurance                     higher income levels.
(MTPL, fire, earthquake, credit-linked
                                                      This behavior is closely linked with
life, etc.).
                                                      income levels. Overall, the higher
18                 INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

   2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

                                       Figure 8 Median income and insurance & pensions annual contribution penetration8
   Median equivalized income1 vs. Non‑life + Life + Pension contribution penetration to GDP
   2017

                        16.0%

                        14.0%                                                                                                                                       Australia

                                                                                                                                           Netherlands

                        12.0%                                                                     United Kingdom
Insurance penetration

                                                                                                                                            Finland

                                                                                                                                                                   Denmark

                        10.0%                                                                                                                             Canada
                                                                                                                                                             United States
                                                                                                            ItalyJ
                                                                                                                            France
                                                            Chile                                                       y
                         8.0%                                                                                 Japan

                                                                                                                                         New Zealand
                                                                                                                               Ireland                   Sweden
                                                                               Portugal                                                   Belgium
                         6.0%
                                                                                                                       Germany                                                  sve
                                                                                                                                                                                 v
                                                   Brazil
                                                                                              Slovenia
                                                                                                                                            Alm Austria       Bl çik
                                          Morocco      B    Russia
                         4.0%
                                                                             Czech Republic
                                                            Poland
                                 Colombia                            Slovak Republic
                                                  Mexico       Hungary
                                Vietnam
                         2.0%                                         Greece
                                                            Serbia
                                                  Turkey
                                Tunisia
                                          Egypt
                                                                    Sb it nY
                         0.0%         Nigeria

                                  -                5,000            10,000          15,000          20,000            25,000             30,000          35,000        40,000    45,000    50,000

                                                                                                         Median Income, USD

   1
             “Median income/GDP” of other countries are assumed to be the same for Colombia, Tunisia, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco
   8
             Source: TurkStat, OECD, Gallup, Swiss Re, Türk‑iş, Expert opinion

   Based on the income levels, Turkey’s                                            In addition to income levels, various                              regression analysis. Accordingly,
   penetration level – with 2% insurance                                           factors drive insurance penetration                                outperforming countries were
   and annual pensions contribution                                                at branch level. To unveil these                                   investigated to identify practices
   penetration is slightly below its fair                                          factors various factors were tested                                supporting penetration.
   share.                                                                          using single-factor and multi-factor
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)                    19

                                          Figure 9 Factors affecting insurance penetration by branch9
Factors driving insurance penetration at different stages1
2017

             Unaffordable                                Compulsory                               Short‑term risks                            Long – term risks

     % of population unable to save                           MTPL                                         Casco                               Life and Pensions

                                                       # of vehicles                              GDP/Capita                                  GPD/Capita

                                                   # of vehicles/capita                        Average vehicle age                           Financial literacy

                                                    Damage cost/GDP                             Damage frequency                        Average individual wealth

                                                          Leakage                            Vehicle and part prices                    Participation in workforce

                                                        Property2                                     Health                            Share of urban population

                                                      GDP/Capita                                  GDP/Capita

                                                  # of dwellings/offices                        Total health spend
                                                                                                                                                Directly proportional

                                                        Crime rate                              Government share
                                                                                                                                              Inversely proportional

                                                Participation in workforce

9
    Source: TurkStat, WHO, UN, OECD, Eurostat, EC, Insurance Europe, AXCO, World Bank, BMI, Gallup, Swiss Re, CIA Factbook, National Transportation Auth.
20                    INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

   2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

   2.4.1. Motor Third Party Liability                                      vehicles, damage costs and leakage.                   10% (~1 mm vehicles) but mostly
   insurance                                                               Penetration gap for Turkey in MTPL                    in motorbikes and tractors at 70%
   Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL)                                      branch is mainly driven by leakage                    (~2 mm vehicles)) and 50% (~1 mm
   penetration is dependent on                                             which is at around 20%. Leakage                       vehicles) respectively.
   vehicle ownership, total number of                                      is partially at automobiles with

                                                                   Figure 10 Modelling of MTPL penetration10
                            There is upside potential to increase MTPL penetration in Turkey by minimizing leakage to EU levels
   MTPL – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels                                                  Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels

                     1.0%                                                                            0.0015

                     0.8%                                                           Italy
                                                                                                     0.0010
Actual penetration

                                                                  Poland         Bulgaria
                     0.6%                                   Slovenia                                 0.0005
                                              Croatia      Spain
                                                       Austria. Belgium
                                          United Kingdom          Germany
                                       Czech Republic                  Turkey
                                                        Greece
                     0.4%                      Finland             Portugal                          0.0000
                                         Hungary
                                 Denmark                      France
                                                         Netherlands
                                      Norway
                     0.2%                       Latvia                                               -0.0005
                                     Sweden

                     0.0%                                                                            -0.0010
                        0.0%            0.2%         0.4%         0.6%          0.8%        1.0%

                                        Predicted Penetration
                                                                                                     -0.0015
                                                                                                                        Croatia
                                                                                                                     Denmark
                                                                                                               United Kingdom
                                                                                                                Czech Republic
                                                                                                                        Poland
                                                                                                                       Belgium
                                                                                                                            Italy
                                                                                                                      Hungary
                                                                                                                          Spain
                                                                                                                      Germany
                                                                                                                        Greece
                                                                                                                       Norway
                                                                                                                       Slovenia
                                                                                                                        Austria
                                                                                                                       Sweden
                                                                                                                        Finland
                                                                                                                         Latvia
                                                                                                                       Bulgaria
                                                                                                                   Netherlands
                                                                                                                      Portugal
                                                                                                                        France
                                                                                                                        Turkey

                              # of vehicles                  # of vehicles/capita

                        Damage cost/GDP                             Leakage1

   10
                Source: AXCO, Eurostat, Insurance Europe, World Bank, OECD, TurkStat, European Automotive Manufacturers’ Association

   Countries with low level of MTPL leakage established deterrence mechanisms with strong sanctions.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   21

Table 1: Sanctions against uninsured vehicles in MTPL branch11
 Country                        Enforcement practice                                                       Monetary Penalty
 Turkey                         • Monthly penalty is imposed to owners of uninsured cars                   0.16% of premium
                                • Owners of uninsured cars lose their right to no claims discount          (monthly accrued in case
                                                                                                           insurance is not renewed)
 Croatia                        • Awareness program “Stop Uninsured Driving” initiated                     -
                                • Intensified police effort

 Czech Republic                 • Daily penalty imposed to owners of uninsured cars                        USD 2 (daily)
                                • Penalties fund compensation of victims of uninsured drivers and
                                  guarantee MTPL obligations

 Denmark                        • Daily penalty imposed to owners of uninsured cars                        USD 37 (daily)
                                • Further incompliance leads to removal of vehicle from the register
                                  and removal of license plate
 United Kingdom                 • Owners of uninsured cars risk one time monetary penalty                  GBP 1000 (one time)
                                • Uninsured cars taken away from owners
11
     Source: AXCO, Insurance Europe, public commentaries
22      INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

2.4.2. Property insurance                    participation in workforce explain   some countries stand out with high
                                             property insurance penetration.      insurance penetration in the branch.
GDP per capita, number of dwellings
                                             Yet, in addition to these factors
and offices, burglary rate and
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)           23

                                                        Figure 11 Modelling of property insurance penetration12

                                                   Turkey is at expected level given underlying drivers of penetration

   Property insurance – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels                                   Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels

                                                                                                          0.5
                     1.4%

                                                                       Denmark
                                                                                                          0.4
                     1.2%

                                                                                                          0.3
                     1.0%
Actual penetration

                                                                                                          0.2

                     0.8%                     France        Austria
                                                                      Sweden
                                                                                                          0.1
                                                Spain
                                            Slovenia Belgium
                     0.6%                                     Norway
                                        Cyprus         United Kingdom
                                                                                                          0.0
                                   Czech Republic                Germany    Netherlands
                                                             Finland
                                  Hungary
                     0.4%                          Portugal
                                   Croatia                                                                -0.1
                              Bulgaria         Italy
                                               Poland
                            Turkey         Malta     Greece
                     0.2%                                                                                 -0.2
                                          Latvia

                     0.0%                                                                                 -0.3

                        0.0%    0.2% 0.4%           0.6%        0.8%        1.0% 1.2%      1.4%
                                                                                                          -0.4
                                                                                                                       Denmark
                                                                                                                          France
                                                                                                                          Cyprus
                                                                                                                            Spain
                                                                                                                         Slovenia
                                                                                                                        Hungary
                                                                                                                          Austria
                                                                                                                 United Kingdom
                                                                                                                         Bulgaria
                                                                                                                          Turkey
                                                                                                                         Belgium
                                                                                                                          Croatia
                                                                                                                  Czech Republic
                                                                                                                        Portugal
                                                                                                                         Norway
                                                                                                                         Sweden
                                                                                                                          Poland
                                                                                                                              Italy
                                                                                                                          Finland
                                                                                                                           Latvia
                                                                                                                        Germany
                                                                                                                          Greece
                                                                                                                           Malta
                                                                                                                    Netherlands
                                      Predicted Penetration

                            GDP/Capita                     # of dwellings/offices

                            Crime rate1                  Participation in workforce

   12
                Source: AXCO, Eurostat, European Commission Energy Department Buildings Database, UN, Worldbank, TESK, Minister of Technology and Sector press release

   Government’s approach to disaster                                       and calamities compensation act.                     expects landowners to secure their
   recovery financing is an important                                      Therefore, property insurance                        assets against storms and hails.
   determinant of property insurance                                       penetration is lower than that is                    Furthermore, property insurance is
   penetration. In Netherlands, although                                   expected in the country. Whereas                     compulsory for mortgaged properties
   country is prone to flood risk, flood                                   in Denmark, hail and storm related                   which also supports penetration.
   risk considered uninsurable and                                         climate risk is high yet government
   hedged through disaster funds                                           has very low intervention and
24            INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

                                               Figure 12 Property insurance practices in France13
               PROPERTY INSURANCE PRACTICES IN FRANCE

Property insurance in France

       GDP penetration in                                 X3.6                    GDP/Capita PPP                           x1.6
                                        0.8%                                                             42,850
       respective branch                                 Turkey                       (USD)                               Turkey

 Additional factors             Level                                          Description
 Extent of                                                                     Mortgage lenders require property owners to insure the
 enforcement                                                                   buildings. For rental property, tenant is obliged to obtain
                                                                               a property insurance.
                                Voluntary        Conditional      Compulsory

 Cancellation                                                                  Cancellation within the first year is not possible.
 policies                                                                      Cancellation of insurance contract only possible with
                                                                               the proof of another replacing contract. There are also
                                Flexible                            Strict     auto‑renewal clauses in contracts, increasing stickiness.
 Contract periods                                                              Duration of contracts for large corporate accounts is
                                                                               2–3 years

                                Annual                         Long‑term
 Insurance                                                                     There is a better understanding of risks and higher level
 awareness                                                                     of insurance awareness in France.

                                Low                                  High
13
     Source: AXCO, press releases

France is also one of the countries                     France, tenants are obliged to obtain       policy requires a proof of replacement
where property insurance penetration                    property insurance and auto-renewal         contract from another company or
higher than expected levels. In                         is common practice. Cancellation of a       end of rental agreement.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   25

2.4.3. Health insurance          government‘s share in healthcare            insurance penetration. Considering
                                 financing. High national spend on           Turkey’s situation among those
Health insurance penetration     healthcare, high GDP/Capita and             metrics slightly below the expected
is dependent on total spend on   low share of public financing drives        penetration level.
healthcare, GDP/capita and
26                     INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

   2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

                                                                  Figure 13 Modelling of health insurance penetration14

                                           Turkey is at expected level given the factors driving health insurance penetration
   Health – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels                                                  Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels

                       5.00%                                                                             1.2%

                                                                                      United States
                       4.50%                                                                             1.0%

                       4.00%                                                                             0.8%
Realized penetration

                       3.50%
                                                                                                         0.6%

                       3.00%
                                                                                                         0.4%
                       2.50%
                                                                                                         0.2%
                       2.00%                                      Switzerland

                                  Slovenia        France                                                 0.0%
                       1.50%
                                                Germany
                               Australia                                                                -0.2%
                       1.00%
                                                Austria
                               Portugal          Brazil
                       0.50%                                                                            -0.4%
                           Poland         United Kingdom
                                    Turkey Norway
                       0.00%                                                                            -0.6%
                           0.00%             1.00%        2.00%       3.00%       4.00%      5.00%
                                                                                                        -0.8%
                                              Predicted penetration
                                                                                                                        Slovenia
                                                                                                                       Australia
                                                                                                                         France
                                                                                                                        Canada
                                                                                                                       Germany
                                                                                                                      Denmark
                                                                                                                         Poland
                                                                                                                  United States
                                                                                                                         Mexico
                                                                                                                   New Zealand
                                                                                                                         Austria
                                                                                                                         Russia
                                                                                                                       Portugal
                                                                                                                      Colombia
                                                                                                                         Turkey
                                                                                                                 Czech Republic
                                                                                                                Slovak Republic
                                                                                                                             Italy
                                                                                                                        Belgium
                                                                                                                      Argentina
                                                                                                                            Chile
                                                                                                                United Kingdom
                                                                                                                    Switzerland
                                                                                                                       Hungary
                                                                                                                        Norway
                                                                                                                           Brazil
                                                                                                                         Greece
                                                                                                                        Sweden
                                  GDP/Capita                         Total health spend

                           Government share

   14
                 Source: OECD, Eurostat, Worldbank, WHO, AXCO

   countries where above the expected                                           government pays for certain portion          longer with minimum contract period
   level penetration is achieved, for                                           of the cost. Rest is either financed         of 18 months. To incentivize early
   instance, in Slovenia or Australia a                                         out of pocket, or most commonly              adoption, delays in obtaining voluntary
   number of practices are observed.                                            paid by a supplementary insurance.           supplementary insurance is penalized
                                                                                Cancellation policies are flexible           with an additional levy on premiums.
   In Slovenia, a co-payment model
                                                                                to consider consumer protection
   is used, in which depending on
                                                                                angle. Typically contract periods are
   the criticality of the treatment
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   27

                                          Figure 14 Private medical insurance in Slovenia15
              PRIVATE MEDICAL INSURANCE IN SLOVENIA

In Slovenia, a co-payment model                   out of pocket, or most commonly paid         longer with minimum contract period
is used, in which depending on                    by a supplementary insurance.		              of 18 months. To incentivize early
the criticality of the treatment                  Cancellation policies are flexible           adoption, delays in obtaining voluntary
government pays for certain portion               to consider consumer protection              supplementary insurance is penalized
of the cost. Rest is either financed              angle. Typically contract periods are        with an additional levy on premiums.

Private medical insurance in Slovenia

       GDP penetration in                           x7.1                     GDP/Capita PPP                             x1.3
                                   1.5%                                                             34,900
       respective branch                           Turkey                        (USD)                                 Turkey

 Factors            Level                                                 Description
 Coverage of public                                                       Typically uses a co‑payment model. Depending on
 facilities                                                               criticality of the operation co‑payment contribution varies

                            Low                               High

 Extent of                                                                Insurance has a mandatory part which is run by Health
 enforcement                                                              Insurance Institute of Slovenia. Yet, majority of population
                                                                          supplements/complements to the mandatory portion to
                                                                          increase co‑payment coverage
                            Voluntary      Conditional       Compulsory

 Cancellation                                                             Easy to cancel as auto‑renewal does not exist. Also
 policies                                                                 requires 30 days notice for cancellation

                            Flexible                         Strict

 Contract periods                                                         Minimum contract period is 18 months for health policies

                            Annual                       Long‑term

 Other factors                                                            Delays in obtaining a voluntary supplementary insurance
                                                                          (after becoming eligible for mandatory insurance) results
                                                                          in 3% premium loading

15
     Source: AXCO

In Australia, a different model                   penalties such as surcharge for              health insurance packages with
is place. Government strongly                     purchase at old age or uninsured high        easy to understand restrictions
incentivized private medical insurance            income earners.                              and coverage. Although the model
(PMI) and public system requires                  - “Government recognizes the fact            supported insurance penetration
additional coverage such as access to             that private healthcare users take           and presents a good example for
private hospitals, dental, spectacles,            pressure off the public system,              collaboration between insurers and
home nursing etc. which are                       especially with respect to public            government, it hinders a healthy
addressed by PMI. Almost half of                  hospitals.”                                  competitive market environment as
the population own private medical                                                             the model is community rated rather
insurance. Government incentives                  – Health insurance association of            than individual risk rated and risk-
include rebates on health insurance               Australia -                                  equalization mechanisms are in place
premiums depending on age and                     Lately, in collaboration with insurers       to reallocate risks among companies.
income, young buyer discount and                  government created standard
28      INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

2.4.4. Motor own damage                      Turkey has further upside potential    bundle offerings with MTPL either
insurance                                    in terms of penetration. Although      as a complementary partial or
                                             in MOD branch, other than these        comprehensive own damage cover
Motor own damage (MOD)                       metrics success is heavily dependent   (often adding extended liability
penetration is dependent on GDP per          on company performance and cultural    coverage as well)
Capita, average vehicle age, damage          aspects, in many country companies
frequency and vehicle and part prices.
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   29

                                                    Figure 15 Modelling of motor own damage insurance penetration16
                                             There is further upside potential to increase Casco penetration in Turkey
   Casco – Prediction vs. actual penetration levels                                                   Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels

                                                                                                          0.3%
                     0.70%

                                                                     Denmark

                     0.60%                               Slovenia               France

                                                                                                          0.2%
                                                                        Switzerland
                     0.50%
Actual penetration

                                                              Sweden
                                                         Spain

                     0.40%            Finland                                                             0.1%
                                                Slovak Republic      Norway
                             Czech Republic                    Malta
                                           Poland           Latvia
                     0.30%
                                                 Netherlands
                             Croatia                               Germany
                                                        Turkey                                            0.0%
                     0.20%                        Portugal
                                       Hungary
                                                          Italy

                     0.10%        Greece
                                                                                                          -0.1%

                     0.00%
                       0.10%     0.20%           0.30%     0.40%        0.50%         0.60%   0.70%
                                                                                                          -0.2%
                                         Predicted penetration
                                                                                                                         Slovenia
                                                                                                                        Denmark
                                                                                                                          Finland
                                                                                                                           Poland
                                                                                                                  Czech Republic
                                                                                                                            Spain
                                                                                                                          Croatia
                                                                                                                         Sweden
                                                                                                                          France
                                                                                                                  Slovak Republic
                                                                                                                         Hungary
                                                                                                                      Switzerland
                                                                                                                            Malta
                                                                                                                        Germany
                                                                                                                     Netherlands
                                                                                                                           Turkey
                                                                                                                         Portugal
                                                                                                                          Norway
                                                                                                                          Greece
                                                                                                                            Latvia
                                                                                                                              Italy
                             GDP/Capita                             Damage frequency

                         Average vehicle age                      Vehicle and part prices

   16
      For Switzerland, Spain and Netherlands damage frequency is assumed to be average of Western European peers; for Latvia, Eastern European peers
   Source: AXCO, Eurostat, Insurance Europe, World Bank, OECD, TurkStat, European Automotive Manufacturers’ Association
30      INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

2. STATE AND THE POTENTIAL OF THE SECTOR

2.4.5. Life insurance and Pensions           penetration is mainly dependent on     of urban population. Turkey has room
                                             GDP per capita, financial literacy,    for increasing penetration in this
Life and pension penetration -
                                             average individual wealth levels,      branch.
measured as life insurance premiums
                                             participation in workforce and share
and annual pensions contribution -
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   31

                                           Figure 16 Modelling of life insurance and pensions contribution penetration17
   Life + pension penetration                                                                           Difference between actual vs. predicted penetration levels

                                                                                                              4%
                     10.0%

                      9.0%
                                                                         United Kingdom
                                                                                                              3%
                      8.0%
                                                                                          Denmark
                                                                    Chile
                      7.0%                                                                   Iceland
Actual penetration

                                                          Italy               France                          2%
                      6.0%                                           Netherlands
                                                                                             Sweden
                      5.0%
                                                                                                              1%
                                                                                    Canada
                      4.0%                                               Portugal
                                                                      Norway                 Belgium
                                            Estonia                                  Spain
                      3.0%                                         Finland                                    0%
                                  Czech Republic              Germany
                                               Austria
                      2.0%     Slovenia                    Mexico
                           Poland           Hungary
                      1.0%                                                                                    -1%
                                          Turkey                    Greece
                                                         Latvia
                      0.0%
                                                                                                              -2%
                             0%      1%        2%        3%         4%       5%         6%         7%

                                             Predicted Penetration
                                                                                                              -3%
                                                                                                                                Chile
                                                                                                                                 Italy
                                                                                                                    United Kingdom
                                                                                                                          Denmark
                                                                                                                       Netherlands
                                                                                                                             Estonia
                                                                                                                             France
                                                                                                                             Poland
                                                                                                                     Czech Republic
                                                                                                                            Slovenia
                                                                                                                             Iceland
                                                                                                                           Hungary
                                                                                                                           Portugal
                                                                                                                            Sweden
                                                                                                                              Turkey
                                                                                                                           Germany
                                                                                                                            Norway
                                                                                                                             Finland
                                                                                                                             Austria
                                                                                                                             Mexico
                                                                                                                               Latvia
                                                                                                                            Canada
                                                                                                                               Spain
                                                                                                                            Belgium
                                                                                                                             Greece
                               GPD/Capita                         Financial literacy

                       Average individual wealth           Participation in workforce

                             Urban Population

   17
                Source: OECD, Worldbank, Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center, Credit Suisse

   In addition to aforementioned metrics,                                    Furthermore, protection and                        annuities are limited. Term life and
   role of government is critical in life                                    savings lines are tax incentivized and             endowments are main lines in the
   and pensions branch. For example,                                         unemployment and funeral insurances                life insurance branch. Although
   in Chile which achieved significantly                                     are compulsory.                                    life insurance for mortgages is not
   above its fair share, a mandatory                                                                                            mandatory, it has notable size (over
                                                                             In the UK, auto-enrolment system
   funded pensions scheme is in place,                                                                                          one third of the term life business)
                                                                             is in place which boosts penetration
   minimum level of contribution is set                                                                                         and a common practice, which grew
                                                                             through occupational pensions and
   to 10% of income. At the time of                                                                                             with growing mortgage business over
                                                                             tax benefits exist. Cancellation is
   retirement pensioner can opt for                                                                                             the last few years. Multi-benefit plans
                                                                             harder with deterrence mechanism
   pension payment, an annuity or a                                                                                             are common combining life, critical
                                                                             established to prevent early exist.
   combination of both. Many individuals                                                                                        illness, unemployment covering
   who is not willing to carry longevity                                     Majority of annuity business is                    individual and family members.
   risk transfer pension to life insurance                                   conversion of pensions pot into
   companies for annuity payments.                                           annuities and purchased life
32   INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)
INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)   33

3
ROLE OF
INSURANCE IN
SOCIETY
34       INSURANCE ASSOCIATION OF TURKEY STRATEGY REPORT (2020-2024)

3. ROLE OF INSURANCE IN SOCIETY18

Main benefit of the insurance is              risks of insureds, insurance is often       • Disciplining role of insurance:
generally perceived as it provides            a precondition for the development            Increase awareness of risks
protection against risks that                 of other productive activities, such          across sectors and individuals and
individuals and entities have limited         as buying a home and starting or              promotes self-protection against
control. Had the risk been realized,          expanding a business.                         risks.
insurance would support them in
                                              Role of insurance can be summarized         • Risk management role: Provide
recovery. Although hedging and
                                              in four holistic groups:                      protection through pooling of
mitigating such risks is a key function
                                                                                            risks and undertakes burden from
of insurance, it is just one of its           • Economic role: Insurance
                                                                                            social state in help enterprises and
roles in the broader context. In case           supports overall economic growth
                                                                                            individuals.
of small businesses it may mean                 though social transfer of risks
spending all lifetime savings for               that individuals and entities face
recovery of a disaster or in case of            and supports new ventures and
life insurance it may mean providing            innovation.
enough income for one’s family in
                                              • Financial role: Insurance
case of death.
                                                companies create long-term
Insurance, however, has much                    funding enabled through assets and
more comprehensive impact than                  liability maturity. It can also provide
provision of protection, though its             counter-cyclical financing given long-
value to government, financial sector,          term and predictable liabilities.
businesses and public derive from
this primary function. Because it
manages, diversifies and absorbs the
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