MARKET OUTLOOK CRANBOURNE EAST - House Land Packages
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MARKET
OUTLOOK
CRANBOURNE EAST
Located in Melbourne’s south-eastern corridor is Cranbourne
East, a growing and maturing suburb offering local amenity,
infrastructure investment and employment opportunities.
01
Walkability
& Accessibility
03
Infrastructure
& Employment
04
Population
& Demographics
05
Residential
Market
06
Rental
Market
Prepared exclusively for
Country Garden Australia
September 2018
WALKABILITY
& ACCESSIBILITY
Cranbourne East is located 52 kilometres southeast
of Melbourne’s CBD within the City of Casey Local
Government Area. With a combination of schools,
medical facilities, parks and recreational spaces,
as well as proximity to shopping centres, the suburb
offers a family-friendly environment.
TRANSPORT
Cranbourne East is well serviced by Melbourne’s road
network. The CBD is a 50 minute off-peak drive via the
Monash Freeway, which is accessible via the South
Gippsland Highway from Cranbourne East. Bus and train 1
networks also service the suburb, providing various
transport options for residents. Shared paths for those 2
on foot and by bike connect schools, leisure centres and
parks throughout the local area.
Bus routes: 898, 795, 796, 798, 897
–– Linking neighbouring suburbs, parks, shopping and
leisure centres.
Train line: Cranbourne railway line
–– Provides a 60-70 minute journey to Flinders Street
Station from Cranbourne Railway Station.
6
NEIGHBOURHOOD AMENITIES
Retail: Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre provides a 7
Coles, IGA and Aldi.
Community & Leisure: Casey Fields, Cranbourne 9 8
Library, Casey Stadium and The Shed Skatepark.
Schools, Education and Child Care: Eclipse Early
Childcare, One Early Education Childcare, St. Agatha’s
Catholic Primary School, Cranbourne East Primary/
y
Secondary Schools, Cranbourne Secondary College,
wa
10
igh
Casey Grammar School and Chisholm TAFE.
dH
Medical: Cranbourne Care Centre (Monash Health),
n
sla
Cranbourne Park Family Care Clinic, Amstel Medical
ipp
Centre.
th G
Parks and Open Spaces: Approximately 80ha of
S ou
open space including Cranbourne Racecourse, Royal
Botanic Gardens (Cranbourne), Ray Perry Park and Grow
Estate Reserve.
FUTURE AMENITIES 1. Melbourne CBD (50 min drive)
Cranbourne East & Clyde Railway Stations: $3m 2. Dandenong
has been allocated by the State Government to acquire 3. Dandenong Ranges
land for a future railway station in Cranbourne East. The
4. Narre Warren
Cranbourne/Pakenham line is also forecast to increase
its peak capacity by 45% when the Metro Tunnel is 5. Cranbourne Railway Station
operational. 6. St Agatha's Primary School
Schools and Child Care Centres: Approximately $40m 7. Cranbourne Centre (Monash Health)
investment to construct six primary, secondary and child 8. Cranbourne Racecourse & Recreation Reserve
care facilities in Cranbourne East. 9. Royal Botanic Gardens Cranbourne (10 min bus ride)
2 Market Outlook Cranbourne East
Cranbourne East is currently a 60-70 minute commute by
rail from the CBD. Once the Metro Tunnel is also complete,
it is anticipated that travel times will reduce by a further
15 minutes to Parkville and 25 minutes to St Kilda Road.
By Bus
Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre
6 minutes
Cranbourne Care Centre (Monash Health)
7 minutes
Royal Botanic Gardens (Cranbourne)
10 minutes
Casey Grammar School
10 minutes
Casey Fields
12 minutes
3
By Train
Dandenong Station
13 minutes
Flinders Street Station
60-70 minutes
4 a d
e Ro Note: Estimated times are from Cranbourne
n
o ur Railway Station
nb Source: Public Transport Victoria
C ra
n-
re
5 ar
Cran rr eW
b ou Na 14
r ne
Line
13
12
11 22
15
16 17 21
20
18
19
Ber wic
k-Cran 25
b ou r ne
Road
24
23
10. Cranbourne Training Complex 18. Cranbourne Library
11. Cranbourne Park Family Care Clinic 19. Casey Recreation & Aquatic Centre (RACE)
12. Cranbourne Park Shopping Centre 20. The Shed Skate Park
13. Cranbourne Secondary College 21. Cranbourne East Railway Station (Future)
14. Hunt Club Village Shopping Centre 22. Cranbourne East Primary & Secondary School
15. Casey Grammar School 23. Proposed Sports and Recreation Centre
16. Chisholm Institute (TAFE) 24. Grow Estate Reserve
17. Casey Stadium 25. Casey Fields Athletics Centre (12 min by bus)
Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia 3
INFRASTRUCTURE Over $250 million in infrastructure
projects is in the pipeline for
& EMPLOYMENT Cranbourne East and the surrounding
area, to be delivered by 2021.
INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT
Cranbourne East and its surrounding suburbs are Cranbourne East residents have convenient access
set to benefit from planned infrastructure projects. to the Cranbourne Activity Centre which provides
These upgrades and additions are indicative of a focus for amenity, retail and businesses. This
the significant investment being injected into the encourages employment and growth in the region.
local community. According to Plan Melbourne, the City of Casey has also
01 CASEY HOSPITAL EXPANSION proposed two additional Major Activity Centres. One of
$135m – Est. Comp: 2019 these Centres is in Clyde and the other in Clyde North.
Further employment opportunities will be fostered
Currently under construction is the expansion
through these centres, further benefitting residents
of Casey Hospital located in Berwick. The improvements
locally, including those in Cranbourne East.
include the construction of a new seven-storey
building to contain an additional 130 beds, as well Based on employment projections from Plan Melbourne,
as several operating theatres. The building will also it is anticipated that the Southern Region of Melbourne,
feature a training space which will be operated by which includes Cranbourne East, will see 23% growth
Monash University. in the number of workers by 2031. White-collar jobs
such as those in community and business services
02 THOMPSONS ROAD UPGRADE are anticipated to be the predominant industries for
$72m – Est. Comp: 2019
these additional 85,300 workers. This follows the
Upgrades include expanding roads to provide 5-percentage point increase in white-collar employed
an additional lane in each direction along several main residents and equivalent decrease of blue-collar
roads, including Frankston-Dandenong Road, Marriott worker proportions in Cranbourne East over the decade
Boulevard, Narre Warren-Cranbourne Road and Berwick- 2006-2016, with white-collar workers making up a 62%
Cranbourne Road. Some 10 kilometres of shared-use share of all employed residents in 2016 and blue-collar
space will also be built. workers 38%.
03 CASEY FIELDS FOOTBALL CENTRE
$50m – Est. Comp: 2021 WHITE COLLAR & BLUE COLLAR
EMPLOYED RESIDENTS
Located in Cranbourne East, the proposed Cranbourne East
state-of-the-art Football Centre will feature several
training grounds in both artificial and natural surfaces.
The project will be staged, with the first stage for the
White collar
community facility, while the second stage will be 61% 62%
specifically for a potential A-league club. Construction 57%
is estimated to complete in 2021.
FORECAST EMPLOYMENT
Southern Region to 2031
2006 2011 2016
2018
376,700 Blue collar
43%
39% 38%
2031
462,000
+23%
2006 2011 2016
Source: Plan Melbourne, Urbis Source: ABS, Urbis
4 Market Outlook Cranbourne East
POPULATION & Cranbourne East is forecast to see 15,350
DEMOGRAPHICS additional residents by 2031, reflecting
total growth of 71%.
POPULATION POPULATION FORECAST
Cranbourne East
Cranbourne East is relatively
new as a suburb but is growing 37,100
and maturing, with an estimated 32,700
30,200
resident population of 21,750 in Resident Population
2017
21,750
2017. Six years prior, the suburb
had a population of only 8,100. 17,000
Therefore, over this period the
area grew 2.7 times in size. 8,100
PROJECTED POPULATION
Looking forward, Cranbourne East
is anticipated to continue growing
on the back of state planning policy 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
that focuses on growth areas. While
Source: ABS, SAFi, Urbis
the rate of growth will temper from
the previous six years, which saw
13,650 people added to the suburb, PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH
Cranbourne East is estimated to add Cranbourne East
even more residents by 2031. Some
15,350 more people are estimated to
call the area home within 13 years,
2017 21,750 2031 37,100 (+71%)
with the suburb reaching an eventual
population of 37,100. Source: ABS, SAFi, Urbis
WHO LIVES IN CRANBOURNE EAST?
DEMOGRAPHICS 2016
Cranbourne East has drawn more
younger people, families with
children, and home purchasers
than the Greater Melbourne Annual Household Average
average. This is reflected in the Aged 25-39
Income Household Size
demographic statistics, that also
indicate the high proportion of 29% $90,150 3.2
houses, four bedroom dwellings, 24% $95,850 2.7
and higher average household size.
Some 42% of residents in Cranbourne
East were also found to be
born overseas, which is a higher
proportion than that for Greater Purchasing Typical number
Live in a House
Melbourne overall. their Home of Beds
A function of a younger demographic 87% 62% 4
is a lower than average annual
household income. Cranbourne East
68% 39% 3
registered $90,150, compared with
$95,850 for Greater Melbourne. Cranbourne East
However, Cranbourne East has
Greater Melbourne
experienced a 15% increase in Annual Families with
Household Income since 2011, which Overseas Born
Children
was higher than Greater Melbourne's
growth. This demonstrates a 71% 42%
progressive shift to residents having 64% 36%
access to higher income jobs.
Source: ABS, Urbis
Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia 5RESIDENTIAL Cranbourne East has showcased strong
median price growth for both houses
MARKET and vacant land lots, increasing 19%
and 40% over the year respectively.
MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE – CRANBOURNE EAST
Year to March 2018
In the year to March 2018, houses in
Cranbourne East achieved a median $588,000
$560,000
price of $560,000. This median price $517,500
makes Cranbourne East $170,000,
or 23%, more affordable than
Greater Melbourne overall.
Cranbourne East’s relative affordability
also applies to the surrounding area.
Compared with the City of Casey, its 3-Bed 4-Bed All Houses
median price is 4% lower. Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis
In the same period, vacant land sales MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH – HOUSES AND VACANT LAND
achieved a median price of $335,000 Year to March 2018
in Cranbourne East. This represents a 12-Month 12-Month
premium of $59,000 compared with House Vacant Land
Greater Melbourne, which recorded a Houses Vacant Land Growth Growth
median land price of $276,000. The CRANBOURNE
premium for vacant land reflects the EAST $560,000 $335,000 +19% +40%
consistent demand and more established
CITY OF
nature of infrastructure in Cranbourne CASEY $583,650 $308,000 +19% +25%
East compared to newer growth areas,
while the suburb remains affordable in a GREATER
city housing context. MELBOURNE $730,000 $276,000 +12% +19%
Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis
PRICE GROWTH
Cranbourne East experienced MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH – SURROUNDING SUBURBS
significant median price growth for Houses to March 2018
both houses and vacant land in the
twelve months to March 2018. Median house price
Cranbourne North
During this period there was a 19% Median land price
increase for the median house price, while 10-Yr Growth (p.a.) $549k
the median land price saw higher growth 9.3%
of 40%. This price growth for Cranbourne Cranbourne West
East outpaced that of the City of Casey $523k
Clyde North
and Greater Melbourne, suggesting strong 8.3%
demand conditions for the area. $470k
Among surrounding suburbs, Cranbourne 2.8%
East achieved the highest median price
growth for houses over the decade. The
median house price grew 12.7% per
Cranbourne Clyde
annum, outperforming nearby suburbs
which achieved growth rates between $525k $526k
0.5% and 9.3% per annum. 8.6% 0.5%
Overall, the strong short and long-term
performance of median house and land Junction Village Cranbourne East
prices in Cranbourne East emphasises $443k $560k
the suburb’s ongoing popularity with
purchasers.
5.5% 12.7%
Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis
6 Market Outlook Cranbourne EastRENTAL Over the decade, median rent for three
and four-bedroom houses in Cranbourne
MARKET East grew by 4.1% and 3.7% per annum
respectively, out-pacing Greater Melbourne.
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT
Cranbourne East*
In the year to March 2018, houses
in the Cranbourne East catchment
3,000 Contract Volume $380 $400
captured a median weekly rent of Median Rent $350
$380. Specifically, four-bedroom 2,500
$300
houses recorded median rent of 2,000
Rental Contracts
$250
Median Rent
$410, while three-bedroom 1,500 $200
houses registered $360. $150
1,000
$100
RENTAL GROWTH 500
0
$50
$0
Cranbourne East offers residents 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
proximity to amenity, education Rolling Annual (Mar Qtr)
and employment, which are
key drivers of rents across all Source: Department of Human Services, Urbis
residential properties. This is
relevant to investors who are
MEDIAN WEEKLY RENT – RENTAL GROWTH –
seeking an income from their HOUSES HOUSES
investment property. Year to March 2018 10-Yr Growth (p.a.)
Over the last ten years, the
Cranbourne East* Cranbourne East* Greater Melbourne
Cranbourne East catchment has
experienced steady growth in
median weekly rent for houses, 3 Bed 3 Bed
recording an average annual $360 4.1% 4.1%
increase of 4.3% to March
2018. Specifically, three and 4 Bed 4 Bed
four-bedroom houses recorded
annual growth rates of 4.1% and $410 3.7% 2.9%
3.7% for median weekly rent
respectively. Rental growth in the
Cranbourne East catchment either All Houses All Houses
outperformed or grew evenly with $380 4.3% 4.0%
Greater Melbourne, demonstrating
the suburb’s competitive
Source: Department of Human Services, Urbis Source: Department of Human Services, Urbis
rental market.
RENTAL YIELD & VACANCY RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATE INDICATIVE GROSS RENTAL
Postcode 3977 – Cranbourne East YIELD – HOUSES
Despite a lower median weekly rent Year to March 2018
for Cranbourne East than Greater
Melbourne across houses, the
indicative gross rental yield remains Cranbourne East
higher in Cranbourne East at 3.7%. 3.7%
Demand in the rental market is also 3.3%
reflected by a tightening vacancy 2.4%
rate over the previous five years,
which saw a decrease to 2.4% as at City of Casey
January 2018. 3.5%
*Defined by the Department of Human Services,
Cranbourne East is included in a catchment with
Greater Melbourne
Blind Bight, Cannons Creek, Clyde, Clyde North,
Cranbourne, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne South,
Jan 2013 Jan 2018 3.0%
Cranbourne West, Dalmore, Devon Meadows,
Junction Village, Pearcedale, Tooradin and Warneet. Source: SQM Research, Urbis Source: APM Price Finder, Urbis
Prepared exclusively for Country Garden Australia 7This publication is prepared on the instruction of Country Garden Australia and is not suitable for use other than by the party to whom it is addressed. As the publication involves
projections and assumptions it can be affected by a number of unforeseen variables. The forecasts and assumptions are a prediction and whilst Urbis has made every effort to ensure
that the forecasts and assumptions are based on reasonable information, they may be affected by assumptions that do not necessarily eventuate or by known, or unknown, risks and
uncertainties. It should be noted that past performance is not necessarily a reliable indication of future performance. The information in the publication does not represent financial
advice and should not be regarded as such. It has been prepared without taking into account your financial situation or investment objectives. You should consider the appropriateness
of the information in regards to your current financial situation or needs. Urbis accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. The information is
subject to change without notice and Urbis is under no obligation to update the information or correct any assumptions which may change over time. This study has been prepared
for the sole use of Country Garden Australia and is not to be relied upon by any third party without specific approval from Urbis. This publication is subject to copyright. Except as
permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of it may, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a
retrievals system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquires should be addressed to the publishers.
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