Mexico Kidnap and Ransom Summary - November 2017 - SIRisk
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Mexico Kidnap and Ransom
Summary
November 2017
Contents Overview An incomplete picture Statistics and annual comparison Gangs, specialist groups and DTOs Virtual Express Kidnapping Geographical synopsis North East - Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas North West - Baja California, Chihuahua and Sonora Central - Ciudad de Mexico and Puebla Southern - Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacan and Veracruz Victim profile Ransom Values and timeframes Where to watch Future Page 2|
going after the Cartel leaders; actually arresting Sinaloa kingpin Joaquin ‘El
Overview Chapo’ Guzman. However, ‘El Chapo’ escaped in 2015 (before being re
Mexico has historically been associated with Kidnap and Ransom (K&R) captured) and there was a significant increase in the number of high profile
cases and the current situation is no different. The country is rated as one Cartel incidents over the following 12 months which left the K&R “industry”
of the world’s highest risk K&R in Mexico again in a state of change.
locations with the leading number Over the last 18 months there has been a significant
of reported incidents globally this K&R Mexico evolution in the mondus operandi of the gangs and
quarter. Overall Mexico is rated as 2000 cartels to now focus on non-traditional kidnaping
high risk which takes into account 1500 strategies including express and virtual tactics.
not only the K&R situation but other There has also been a change in the internal
1000
concerns such as human trafficking, structures of the Cartels and many have been
narco activity, corruption and 500
broken into much smaller informal crews/gangs
general crime. 0 who are now fighting over the K&R rackets which
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
The evolution of the K&R situation has meant an increase in violent attacks and now
in Mexico has transferred through a the country’s murder tally is on track to be its
number of key segments over the last 40 years. The tactic was developed highest since 1997.
by political groups during the unrest of the 1980’s as a means to take While K&R in Mexico continues to be primarily carried out for profit,
control of parties and states and evolved over the next 20 years to be a precedent indicates that the 2018 federal elections will bring an increase
powerful tool of the criminal organisations. in politically motivated kidnappings and detentions.
During Felipe Calderon’s presidency (2006 to 2012), there was a large
increase in K&R activity as the Cartels and Gangs responded in the worst An incomplete picture
way to Calderon crime offensives. During this period, the main targets for Unfortunately, understanding the K&R landscape in Mexico – both
the Kidnappers were the highly affluent members of society following the historically and currently – is made inherently difficult by the limited and
more traditional long-term kidnap tactics including both national and unreliable nature of government data on the matter as well as by the
foreign victims. chronic problem of underreporting (which stems from the fact that very
The next stage for the K&R evolution came with the election of President few K&R victims seek government help as they fear it could undermine
Enrique Pena Nieto who had a different strategy to combat the increasing their ability to resolve the issue.) Consequently, official figures are
criminal activity in country creating the National Gendarmerie Division and generally 30 to 50 times lower than most analysts, academics and NGOs
believe the actual rates of KRE crimes in Mexico actually are (these
unofficial figures are typically generated by combining government data
K&R 2017 vs 2016
with journalistic reporting and community surveys.) A 2012 study, for
instance, concluded that just one in every 180 kidnappings in Mexico was 120
100
actually reported to authorities.
80
Connected to this issue of reporting is the increasing involvement of 60
Mexican law enforcement officials in KRE crimes. In 2005, members of the 40
20
Mexican police force were estimated to be involved in 2 out of every 10
0
kidnappings; today, that figure is believed to be as high as 8 out of every Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
10 incidents. The level of coordination is particularly concerning. A ‘police
cartel’ exposed in 2012 counted more than 6500 officers among its ranks. 2016 2017
More broadly, police have been implicated in high-profile KRE incidents
across the country, including the 2014 abduction and suspected killing of
43 students in Guerrero state, which remains a major national issue.
Taking all this into account is acceptable to state that government statistics Gangs, specialist groups and DTOs
in Mexico do not accurately represent the real picture in-country. To
provide as fuller picture as possible this report utilises the Semáforo To the outsider kidnapping in Mexico is generally seen as a tool used by the
Delictivo application which utilises national statistics as well as other Cartels to generate large financial ransoms or pull political bias. Historically
multiple sources. it has, however, the leading drivers in the K&R industry are now organised
criminal groups and minor gangs who are able to focus their energy into
Statistics and annual comparison K&R activities.
While there have been dips, overall the kidnap figures for 2017 are much To break down the reasons for this shift we need to look at the
higher in 2017 than 2016. With an estimated 24000 homicides predicted development of the criminal market in Mexico. Due to the killing and
for 2017 the there is strong likelihood that incidents of K&R will increase. arrests of major cartel leaders such as Juan Manuel Loza, also known as “El
Toro,” (Gulf cartel, shot April 2017) and Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman
(Sinaloa Cartel, arrested January 2016) there has been a run of internal
fallouts within the Cartels. This has created a void in the criminal industry
which has now been filled by new groups who are more focused on
Page 4|financial gains rather than territory wars and are able to change their educated and savvy with regards victim surveillance including social media
tactics and processes as the government closes in on them. platforms.
Over the last 18 months there has been a growth in the number of gangs The offenders often pose as cartel or known gang members and will have
who have K&R as their main modus operandi, they have heavy influence general details of the apparent victim i.e hair colour, clothing etc and
within the local security and political environments and are known to hire regularly have accomplices screaming in the background during the call to
their services to the larger organisations. Los Rojos fit this mould, operating add effect.
in Guerrero and relying heavily on K&R for funding alongside a small
In many cases these VK are conducted from prisons where the inmates
amount cocaine trafficking.
have smuggled cell phones and are able to use the internet to find
With close to 20% of cases having been reported to have some link to information and details on their victims.
government, military or police personnel. These new gangs are organised
One of the larger VK rings discovered was operating from Tijuana and
and very driven and as 2017 moves into 2018 we can expect a rise in the
targeting Central American immigrants based in Washington DC, there
number of kidnappings associated with them.
were over 5000 calls a day recorded and the perpetrators were advising
Mexico’s major drug cartels are also known and Drug Trafficking the person who answered that they had kidnapped a family member.
Organisations (DTOs), are only involved with around 25 to 30% of There was no specific intel carried out in this case it was purely based on
kidnappings in Mexico, however, they are still a realistic K&R risk threat as volume and the odds of success. The average payment made was
they have stronger infrastructure and financial setups so are able to play approximately $2,000 which was sent to San Diego and then smuggled as
the long game kidnap strategy with a much higher success rate. cash into Tijuana. It is estimate that the group made around $500,000.
By all accounts virtual kidnapping incidents rates are set to rise and
Virtual become more inventive and detailed as the criminal’s abilities to harness
One of the main forms of kidnapping or extortion on the rise in Mexico is social media and data capture increase
Virtual kidnapping (VK), in this situation the assailants attempt to extract a
ransom from a family with the false claims that they have seized a relative Express Kidnapping
or loved one.
Short-term or Express kidnapping (secuestro exprés) is becoming very
Over the last two years there has been a number of VK incidents reported common across Mexico with both low and high-income victims being
affecting foreign nationals in Mexico with the perpetrators often targeting targeted. There is a modus operandi in place for the attackers, however,
holiday makers these figures are on the rise as the criminals become more these kidnappings are being carried out by varying groups from individual
attackers (often taxi drivers) to organised gangs and groups. The general
Page 5|process involves a victim being held at gunpoint and forced to
provide PIN details and information or being taken to an ATM at Extortions September 2017
midnight on what is called a “paseo millionario” (millionaire tour) 300
and forced to withdraw the maximum allowable amount before 250
and after midnight. These incidents mainly take place in urban 200
centres and more than 20% include some sort of assault. Over the 150
last 12 months there has been a number of cases reported from 100
victims of Express Kidnapping when travelling in Ubers with 50
Female travellers are seen as an easy target due to their physical 0
Campeche
Nayarit
Oaxaca
Yucatán
Aguascalientes
Coahuila
Mexico City
Colima
Hidalgo
Michoacán
Chiapas
Guerrero
Mexico State
Morelos
San Luis Potosí
Puebla
Sinaloa
Tlaxcala
Sonora
Tabasco
Zacatecas
Baja California
Baja California Sur
Nuevo León
Querétaro
Chihuahua
Durango
Guanajuato
Jalisco
Veracruz
Quintana Roo
Tamaulipas
vulnerability.
Extortion is a highly profitable business for organised crime in
Mexico, it far eclipses Kidnapping and is still on the rise. All 32
states have been affected in some way and many national
business owners have accepted the fact they will be pressurised to delete or destroy a company’s data or information unless they are paid.
into passing over money at some point. There is also an element of the release of personal or data protected
The landscape for extortion covers DTOs, organised gangs and information onto the internet.
opportunistic criminals with a wide scope of targets perused from small This element of crime in Mexico needs to be focused on as we move
local business owners, through to large international organisations. There forward, the government has created a number of specialist agencies
are large scale volume operations being run by the major Cartels, Sinaloa, dedicated to fighting cybercrime and are investing heavily in the area as
CJNG alongside their single target operations. The majority of these single the 2018 elections approach.
target incidents go unreported, however, over the last few years some
examples include a fire being set at Key Energy Services’ office in Tabasco, Criminal groups are utilising social media to carry out their extortion
they are US Oil and Gas company and the companies legal advisors advised schemes, they send messages via facebook, Instagram or twitter using the
that the fire was due to an extortion scheme. The Zetas Cartel fired a tank information they find their victims profiles to add pressure. The Zetas
at the hotel where Weatherford Oil employees were staying in Cirudad cartel use this method on a high-volume basis as they have a well-known
Mier, close to the US border, fortunately no one was killed. “brand” which adds an extra level of intimidation,
A newer form of extortion that is becoming favourable with the more Looking ahead we can extrapolate the current statistical situation to see
technical Cartels involves a cyber element where the perpetrators threaten that the main areas of concern for 2018 and beyond will likely come from
Page 6|online attacks. As technology improves small and major businesses alike traditional kidnappings are likely to be the biggest threat to both nationals
will need to up their cyber and online security to combat these assaults. and foreigners as they generate sort after funds at a rapid rate compared
to the more traditional methods. Virtual kidnapping is becoming rife in
Geographical synopsis Reynosa, Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria and as such travellers are advised
to maintain regular contact with their families during their trip.
Kidnapping is a countrywide threat in Mexico however there are variations
on incident numbers depending on location and profile of victim. Foreign North West - Baja California, Chihuahua and
nationals are more likely to be taken in major cities, airports or border
crossings, nationals can be taken in small towns and from highways while Sonora
migrants are most often targeted in the southern border states as they
enter the country. Cartel related violence has been on a rapid increase in the North West
through the first half of 2017 with 144 killings in Baja California alone which
is a 400% increase on the same period last year. The region is becoming
North East - Coahuila, Nuevo Leon and increasingly unstable as the Sinaloa Cartel struggle to maintain control or
Tamaulipas their territory; battling against the Beltran Leyva Organisation (BLO), the
Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) and security forces.
All three states have shown increased levels of cartel-related violence
including a sharp rise in street based gang battles, however, reported K&R The number of reported kidnappings is low compared to other “violent”
incidents have decreased in some areas in comparison to 2016. As we states, such as Michaoacan, Guerrero, and Tamaulipas, however, as
consider this in more detail we see that as the cartels operate more in previously discussed areas that have a heavy cartel presence are likely to
these areas there follows an increase in authority corruption and as such have elevated areas of corruption from security and government
there is a drop in the level or incidents reported due to a decrease in authorities. Therefore, reported figures in these states must be taken as a
confidence in the authorities from the locals. There are also a growing guide and we should appreciate that the security threat is much higher.
number of accounts of local and federal police being actively involved in Also with the arrest earlier this year of Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman there
the kidnappings themselves. has been a deuteriation in the security situation in the North-Western
states as the Sinaloa Cartel continue to make changes internally and
The shared border between Tamaulipas and the US is close to 360km and externally with an increase in K&R and extortion cases expected. Baja
it has the highest number of land crossings per day across the entire border California has been a hotsport for virtual kidnaping scams and this is
this makes it a highly strategic area for the criminal group that can maintain predicted to continue to rise with assailants targeting victims over the
control. The Gulf and Zetas cartels are operating heavily in this North-East border in the US
region and due to the internal fractions in their operations Express and
Page 7|kidnapping and traditional KRE activity will remain pervasive in south Central - Ciudad de Mexico and Puebla western Mexico in the medium-term. Kidnapping cases in the central states have historically followed a The crime and murder rates in Veracruz are elevated and it is considered a traditional form targeting high wealth individuals specifically for significant high-risk state. The CLNG and Zetas are in constant battle and there is now wealth gain or political control. However, over the last 5 years the reported reported to be a new alliance between the Zetas-Vieja Escuela and the Gulf victims have fallen into the middle and lower-class spectrum those with Cartel who are causing significant issues for the new state Governor Miguel not substantial wealth but who will have quick access to funds. K&R cases Angel Yunes. Traditional kidnapping tactics are still very popular in in this region do not generally last longer than 10 days with victims being Veracruz and traveller are advised to avoid non-toll roads and displays of released unharmed after ransom is paid, however, there have been wealth. reported cases of victims being tortured and killed. Nationals are more likely to be targeted across Mexico City and Puebla due to language The highest rated states for K&R risk are Tamaulipas, Morelos, Tabasco, barriers and speed of completion. Kidnappings in this region are generally Guerrero, Mexico State and Michoacan. carried out by smaller gangs who often terrify victims by claiming to be part of a known Cartel to speed up the process. Southern - Guerrero, Jalisco, Michoacan and Veracruz As well as extreme Cartel related violence, express kidnapping has become a significant security risk in Guerrero, Jalisco and Michoacan. There are regular and aggressive violent battles between rival cartels, specifically CJNG (Michoacan); La Familia Michoacana; Los Caballeros Templarios; Los Ardillos, Los Rojos, BLO and Los Caballeros Templarios. The external fighting between these cartels as well as internal power struggles that are flowing on to the streets coupled with the inflated crime rates on the ground has meant that these separate groups are all looking for money fast and are focused on express kidnapping and extortion to do this. These practices are increasing each month and are expected to continue into 2018. It is within this context that both short-term express Page 8|
than one as this this allows for numerous smaller ransom demands which
Victim profile have a much higher likelihood of being paid. Reports from recent
Nationals recovered victims include descriptions of 5 to 10 other detainees being
held during their captivity. Delving further into reports shows that
Although seen as a problem for foreign nationals the majority of approximately 70% of kidnapping victims are males and 75% are non-
kidnapping incidents in Mexico (approximately 94%) are involving national affluent with the average demand being 100,000 pesos ($5,500 USD).
Mexican victims. There are a number of factors behind this:
Foreigners
Awareness Kidnapping a foreign national generates much more
attention and draws a larger scale of resource from authorities both Even though the larger scale kidnapping problem in Mexico is based
national and international around national population the risk to Foreign Nationals has to be taken
very seriously (see diagram 1). Foreign national cases make up
Access Local victims are much more readily available and predictable approximately 5% of the total K&R cases in country (excluding Central
routines and surveillance operations will go unnoticed American immigrant incidents). Dual US-Mexican nationals are more likely
Timeframe It is far easier for the kidnappers to deal with in Mexico to be targeted as are city-based foreign national’s due to reasons
mentioned above, ease of
than across borders in particular where countries have laws in place Foreigner Kidnapping
prohibiting ransom negotiations contact and negotiation lines.
Hotspots Q3 2017
Originally known as being an issue for the wealthy, kidnap for ransom in The highest target industries for
foreign owned businesses are
Mexico has now moved towards pursuing the general “mass market”, taxi Mexico 321
Drivers, manual workers, small business owners and doctors have all been Construction, Engineering and
DRC 26 Extractives (minerals, oil and gas)
targeted heavily over the last 24 months. Wealthy Mexicans are known for
Sudan 22 due to their mix of high wealth
hiring bodyguards and taking security precautions, which results in a much
harder target and now with the typical profile of kidnappers becoming Libya 16 individual targets and substantial
younger and less sophisticated they are more willing to favour quick Nigeria 12 national employee footprints.
paydays over substantial ones. This all results in a dramatic change in the Thailand 3 There are significantly elevated
victim profile making Mexico’s middle class, and even the working poor, cases involving these industries in
Peru 3
the criminals’ targets of choice. Veracruz, Mexico State, Puebla
Somalia 2 and Tamaulipas with Oil and Gas
The average time frame for kidnapping incidents is currently 48 hours to 7 Colombia 2 cases in the Gulf of Mexico being
days with the assailant preferring to take several victims at once rather Philippines 2 most prevalent.
Page 9|Migrants
Central American refugees who are looking to flee the poverty and violence The local police played a part in both cases, and according to reports
of the home countries will look to travel to the US and in turn will have to corrupt officials continue to play a major role in the kidnapping of migrants
pass through Mexico. During this time, they are more likely to become in Mexico.
victims of crime and over the last 6 months, based upon reported K&R
The state of Tobasco is one of the most dangerous sections for the migrants
cases, they are being targeted by Kidnappers who are often working with
as it sits on the shortest route between Guatemala and the US it is a very
local security forces.
sparely populated state however has one of the highest kidnap rates per
When the Zetas split from the Gulf Cartel in 2010 they began to build a headcount in the country
large-scale venture based upon high volume migrant-kidnapping. The
Last year, state authorities rescued 53 migrants and arrested 39 people,
Zetas original members are from a Special Forces background and are
including a handful of low-ranking police officers, operating in Tobasco.
known to run Military level operations being responsible for a number
Mexico’s largest kidnappings, including massacres of 72 migrants in 2010
and 193 in 2011. Where migrants were kidnapped from buses, killed and
buried in mass graves in the northern state of Tamaulipas.
P a g e 10 |in the number of Virtual and Express kidnappings which are associated with
Ransom Values and timeframes lower financial demands.
Both the value of the ransom demanded and the timeframe for a The effect this has had on the duration of the kidnappings has become
kidnapping are determined by the context and nature of the victim. In quite apparent with nearly all being resolved within a week and according
larger high-profile cases carried out by more experienced criminal’s higher to a study by the ENVIPE (National Survey of Victimisation and Perception
ransoms are demanded and the assailants are willing to keep the victims on Public Safety) approx. 60% of kidnappings are resolved within 24 hours.
for much longer time frames due to them having normally invested in
intelligence and pre-operational surveillance prior to the crime and will The number of the more original “high scale” kidnappings has detreated
generally have a full breakdown of the victim’s nett-worth or value. over the last 10 years; however, they are still a concern and the larger
Cartels such as Sinaloa are still very capable of carrying out long-term
Actual values demanded to vary greatly from a few hundred dollars to kidnappings for considerable financial gain.
millions, with the average number being approximately $250,000 for high
profile victims and $5000 for the higher volume victims. In general, the
actual payments made are close 45% of initial demand. However there
In Mexico ransom earnings add up to $50
have been cases of payments being made of up to $50 Million (Angel million a year.
Losada Moreno VP of a Mexican Supermarket chain)
There has been a drop-in ransom demand values over the last 2 years, this
in part can be accounted for by the increase in awareness of kidnapping by Where to watch
the higher profile target industries, however, the main change that has
been reported in this time is due to the change in the make-up and Colima
structure of the Cartels with the smaller internal gangs now targeting a Tecomán in Colima is now the most violent municipality in Mexico,
quick turnaround closure as they do not have the capabilities or means to however, three years ago Colima was considered one of Mexico’s safest
hold victims for prolonged periods of time. There has also been an increase states. So what has changed? There has been a significant turf war
between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel over
control of the Manzanillo port. Colima is a sort after state as whoever has
control of the port controls one of the largest routes for nacro products
out of the country. The government have tried to take back control of the
region and have utilized the Navy to control the water access routes.
However, the crime rate has continued to rise.
P a g e 11 |Firstly, there have been a number of high profile kidnappings in the state
including a Teacher’s Union leader and a reporter and bearing in mind the
Future
Cartels operating in the region further incidents are expected Mexico currently has a highly volatile security landscape with numerous
Secondly, based upon analysis of previous statistical escalations we can crime, political and travel concerns. Judging by the escalating situation in
extrapolate current crime data and see that there is a considerable states such as Baja California, Tamaulipas and Colima, K&R incidents are
likelihood in the rise in K&R activities including express incidents. expected to continue through 2017.
When traveling into Colima personal security detail is advised a heightened Extortion rates are expected to continue to rise through 2017 and into
awareness should be maintained at all times 2018 as it is proving to be a very effective method for the cartels to
generate financial gains rapidly and with minimal risk. Target markets are
2018 Elections expected to be Oil and gas (due to the changing situation with Pemex),
construction and transportation.
Mexico’s general elections will be held on the 1st July 2018, there are nine
registered parties and there will be a new President voted in as Mexican Internal fighting between the Cartels is predicted to continue and in fact
law states no second term for Incumbents. As the elections approach a rise escalate as more and more splinter groups for, as such an increase in
in Kidnapping activity can be expected, a number of the Cartels still utilise Express kidnappings is likely as these smaller group will be looking for cash
K&R as a political control weapon and due to the fragmented situation with quickly to fund their drive for rule.
the groups express kidnapping is likely to be used to gain a financial
advantage. The ever-developing Social media platforms combined with the growing
technical ability of the Cartels shows that there will likely be a large
Reynosa Crime hike increase in Virtual K&R in particular more high-volume schemes with the
US being targeted from across the border
There has been a significant rise in criminal activity across Reynosa over
the last month, road blocks are being utilised on the bridge crossings from As the 2018 elections approach it is expected that there will be a drive
the US and the Gulf Cartel have been very active on the streets with gang towards a number of candidates by the Cartels, we cannot advise who will
members and civilians being killed. There is a warning on travel into the be targeted however kidnap for political power is predicted.
state of Tamaulipas and travellers are directed to avoid all non-essential
journeys and when in country personal security detail is advised.
P a g e 12 |P a g e 13 |
SI Risk Ltd +44(0)203 1981 231 info@sirisk.uk P a g e 14 |
You can also read
