Mind the Gap - Pitfalls with current Data Availability - Hela Hinrichs, Director EMEA Research JLL - International Conference on Real Estate ...

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Mind the Gap - Pitfalls with current Data Availability - Hela Hinrichs, Director EMEA Research JLL - International Conference on Real Estate ...
Mind the Gap –
Pitfalls with current Data Availability

 Hela Hinrichs, Director EMEA Research JLL
Mind the Gap – Pitfalls with current Data Availability

                 Real Estate Transparency

                 Real Estate Data Availability

                 Commercial Property Price Indicators

                 Opportunities and Challenges

                                                          2
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
JLL’s Global Real Estate Transparency Index for 2018
     The components                                                                                    What’s new with the 2018 Index?

                   Performance                                                                           Unlisted fund indices by investment style,
                   Measurement                                                                           e.g. core vs. value-add

                   Market                                                                               Coverage and availability of data
                   Fundamentals                                                                         in the ‘alternatives’ sector

                   Governance of                                                                        Data disclosure practices
                   Listed Vehicles                                                                      of listed real estate firms

                   Regulatory                                                                           Beneficial ownership and anti-
                                                                                                        money laundering legislation
                   and Legal

                   Transaction                                                                          Existence and consistency of
                   Process                                                                              property measurement standards

                                                                                                        Transparency of sustainability measures
                   Sustainability                                                                       included for the first time
                                                                                                                                                      3
Source: JLL, LaSalle Investment Management
                                             © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
The world’s most transparent countries in 2018
                                                                               1    United Kingdom

                                Highly                                         2    Australia
                        1    Transparent                                       3    United States

                                                          Highly Transparent
                                                                               4    France
                                                                                                       ‘Highly Transparent’
                        2
   Transparency Tiers

                             Transparent                                       5    Canada           group accounts for 75%
                                                                               6    Netherlands         of global direct real
                                Semi-                                          7    New Zealand          estate investment
                        3
                             Transparent                                       8    Germany
                                                                               9    Ireland
                                Low
                        4                                                      10   Sweden
                            Transparency
                                                                               11   Finland
                                                          Transparent

                                                                               12   Singapore
                        5         Opaque
                                                                               13   Hong Kong
                                                                               14   Japan

Source: JLL, LaSalle Investment Management

                                                                                                                                4
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Transparency Index: Market fundamentals
                                                                                                                      Market Fundamentals Scores
   Sector Coverage                                                                                                    Netherlands       1,4
                                                                                                                      France            1,7
                                                                                                                      United Kingdom    1,8
   Market coverage - country,                                                         1                   Highly      Poland            1,9
   city, submarket                                                                                     Transparent    Germany           2,0
                                                                                                                      Finland           2,0
   Consistent Definitions                                                                                             Italy             2,1
                                                                                      2                Transparent    Denmark           2,2
   Length of consistent                                                                                               Spain             2,2
                                                                                                                      Slovakia          2,3
   series                                                                                                             Czech Republic    2,3
                                                                                                          Semi-
                                                                                      3                               Austria           2,3
                                                                                                       Transparent    Ireland           2,3
   Forecasts
                                                                                                                      Belgium           2,6
                                                                                                           Low        Hungary           2,8
   Disaggregated Databases                                                            4                               Romania           2,8
                                                                                                       Transparency
   (total stock/inventory,                                                                                            Sweden            2,8
                                                                                                                      Luxembourg        2,9
   lease and investment
                                                                                                                      Portugal          3,2
   deals) coverage                                                                    5                  Opaque       Greece            3,5
                                                                                                                      Bulgaria          3,6
                                                                                                                      Slovenia          3,9
                                                                                                                                                   5
Source: JLL, LaSalle Investment Management
                                             © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Capital Values are influenced by various Indicators

                                              Economic                                            Financial and Debt
                                             Fundamentals                                         Market Conditions

                                        Political and Legal                                     Consumer and Tenant
                                           Environment                                              “Behaviour”

                                                              Real Estate Market Indicators -
                                                                    Demand & Supply

Source: JLL

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
                                                                                                                       6
Supply is a key factor for rental forecasts

                                                          Disaggregated Stock/Inventory Data in Europe
          Stock/Inventory
                                                                                                                             Private proprietary
                                                                        Public accessible Source Private accessible Source         Source
          Vacancy                                        Office                   No                       No                        Yes

                                                          Retail                   No                    No/SC yes                No/SC yes
          Completions
                                                          Industrial               No                       No                  No/Logistics yes

          Under Construction                             Residential              No                       No                        Yes

                                                          Other                    No                       No                        No

          Future Supply

         None of the data is complete, but all these indicators should
         be analysed as percentage of stock/inventory

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
                                                                                                                                                   7
Transactions are key ingredients for property pricing

 Disaggregated Lease Data in Europe
                                                  Private accessible                Private proprietary
                         Public accessible Source Source                            Source
Office                                      No             Yes, in some countries                Yes
Retail                                      No             Yes, in some countries    yes, but focus on high street
Industrial                                  No             Yes, in some countries     yes, but focus on logistics
Residential                                 No                      no                           yes
Other                                       No                      No                            No
                                                                                                                     None of the data is complete, but
                                                                                                                     lease contracts and transactions
 Disaggregated Transactions Data in Europe                                                                           should be analysed for
                                                                                                                     Commercial Property Price
                                                  Private accessible                Private proprietary
                         Public accessible Source Source                            Source                           Indices.
Office                                      No             Yes, in some countries                Yes
Retail                                      No             Yes, in some countries                Yes
                                                                                                                     The proportion of confidential
Industrial                                  No             Yes, in some countries     Yes, but focus on logistics
Residential                                 No             Yes, in some countries                Yes                 deals is increasing
Other                                       No                      No                           Yes

 © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.                                                                                                 8
Prime Capital Value Definition
                                                             Prime Office Rent
                                                             Represents the top open-market rent that
                                                             could be expected for a notional office unit of
Prime Capital Value                                          the highest quality and specification in the
                                                             best location in a market, as at the survey
                                                             date (normally at the end of each quarter          Prime Office Yield
Represents the top open-market capital value                 period). The rent quoted normally reflects
(per square metre) that could be expected for                                                                  Represents the best (i.e. lowest) “rack-rented” yield
                                                             prime units of over 500 m² of lettable            estimated to be achievable for a notional office
a notional office building of the highest quality            floorspace, which excludes rents that
and specification in the best location on the                                                                  property of the highest quality and specification in
                                                             represent a premium level paid for a small        the best location in a market, as at the survey date
survey date (normally at the end of each                     quantity of space.
quarter period).                                                                                               (normally at the end of each quarter period). The
                                                                                                               property should be let at the prevailing market rent
                                                             The Prime Rent reflects an occupational           to a first class tenant with an occupational lease
Prime capital values are derived from prime                  lease that is standard for the local market. It
rents and prime net yields:                                                                                    that is standard for the local market. The prime
                                                             is a face rents that does not reflect the         initial net yield is quoted, i.e., the initial net income
                                                             financial impact of tenant incentives, and        at the date of purchase, expressed as a
Capital Value = (Prime Annual Rent / Prime                   excludes service charges and local taxes. It
Yield From) * 100                                                                                              percentage of the total purchase price, which
                                                             represents JLL’s market view and is based         includes acquisition costs and transfer taxes.
                                                             on an analysis/review of actual transactions
                                                             for prime office space, excluding any             The Prime Yield represents JLL’s “market view”,
                                                             unrepresentative deals. Where an                  based on a combination of market evidence where
                                                             insufficient number of deals have been            available and a survey of expert opinion.
                                                             made for prime office space, an assessment
                                                             of rental value is provided by reference to
                                                             transactions generally in that market
                                                             adjusted accordingly to equate to prime.
  Source: JLL

   © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.                                                                                                                 9
Eurozone Prime Capital Value Indices
                                     1980=100

                   2600
                                                                                                  Y-o-Y                    Q-o-Q
                                                                        % Change
                                                                                              Q4 17 – Q4 18             Q3 18 – Q4 18

                                                               Office                             10.3                       2.7
                   2100
                                                               Unit Shops                          3.6                       0.6

                                                               Warehousing                        10.9                       2.5

                   1600                                        Shopping Centre                    -4.5                      -4.1

                                                               Retail Warehousing Parks            1.7                      -0.4

                   1100

                     600

                     100
                               1980
                               1981
                               1982
                                                  1983
                                                  1984
                                                  1985
                                                  1986
                                                          1987
                                                          1988
                                                          1989
                                                          1990
                                                                        1991
                                                                        1992
                                                                        1993
                                                                        1994
                                                                                      1995
                                                                                      1996
                                                                                      1997
                                                                                      1998
                                                                                                 1999
                                                                                                 2000
                                                                                                 2001
                                                                                                 2002
                                                                                                                2003
                                                                                                                2004
                                                                                                                2005
                                                                                                                2006
                                                                                                                            2007
                                                                                                                            2008
                                                                                                                            2009
                                                                                                                            2010
                                                                                                                                          2011
                                                                                                                                          2012
                                                                                                                                          2013
                                                                                                                                          2014
                                                                                                                                                 2015
                                                                                                                                                 2016
                                                                                                                                                 2017
                                                                                                                                                 2018
                                                          Office        Unit Shops        Warehousing         Shopping Centre       RWP

Source: JLL, February 2019

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.                                                                                                 10
Eurozone Prime Capital Value Indices - Forecast
                                        1980=100

                       2600                                                                                                   Forecasts
                                                                                          Y-o-Y                 2019 – 2022
                                                                   % Change
                                                                                      Q4 17 – Q4 18                 pa

                                                          Office                          10.3                     -1.5
                       2100
                                                          Unit Shops                       3.6                     -2.3

                                                          Warehousing                     10.9                     -0.4

                       1600

                       1100

                         600

                         100
                                   1980
                                   1981
                                   1982
                                   1983
                                   1984
                                   1985
                                   1986
                                   1987
                                   1988
                                   1989
                                   1990
                                   1991
                                   1992
                                   1993
                                   1994
                                   1995
                                   1996
                                   1997
                                   1998
                                   1999
                                   2000
                                   2001
                                   2002
                                   2003
                                   2004
                                   2005
                                   2006
                                   2007
                                   2008
                                   2009
                                   2010
                                   2011
                                   2012
                                   2013
                                   2014
                                   2015
                                   2016
                                   2017
                                   2018
                                   2019
                                   2020
                                   2021
                                   2022
                                                                        Office   Unit Shops       Warehousing

Source: JLL, November 2018 forecasts

                                                                                                                                          11
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Eurozone Prime Capital Values react sharply to economic downturns
                      Eurozone Capital Value change y-o-y in %
                   50

                   40

                   30

                   20

                   10

                     0

                  -10
                                                                                                                                                          Dot-Com Bubble
                  -20
                                                                          ERM/UK Crisis
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     GFC
                  -30
                         1981
                                1982
                                       1983
                                              1984
                                                     1985
                                                            1986
                                                                   1987
                                                                          1988
                                                                                 1989
                                                                                        1990
                                                                                               1991
                                                                                                      1992
                                                                                                             1993
                                                                                                                    1994
                                                                                                                           1995
                                                                                                                                  1996
                                                                                                                                         1997
                                                                                                                                                1998
                                                                                                                                                       1999
                                                                                                                                                              2000
                                                                                                                                                                     2001
                                                                                                                                                                            2002
                                                                                                                                                                                   2003
                                                                                                                                                                                          2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                 2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2018
                                                                                                                Office                   Unit Shops                          Warehousing

Source: JLL, February 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Secondary Office Capital Values more stable than
  Prime
  Capital Value change Y-o-Y in %                                             Capital Value change Y-o-Y in %

                                                                              25,0
   30,0                                         Paris                                                  Munich
                                                                              20,0
   20,0
                                                                              15,0
   10,0
                                                                              10,0
     0,0                                                                       5,0
  -10,0                                                                        0,0

  -20,0                                                                        -5,0
                                                                              -10,0
  -30,0
                                                                              -15,0
  -40,0
                                                                              -20,0
           20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018
                                                                                      2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
                     Paris prime                          Paris secondary                      Munich prime           Munich secondary
                     Average Prime                        Average Secondary                      Average Prime        Average Secondary

Source: JLL, February 2019

                                                                                                                                               13
© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Yield compression the main driver of capital value growth this cycle…

                            Contribution to annual capital value growth for prime European offices (%)
                            30
                                                                                                        + 23%                                         + 26%

                            20
                                                                                                                                                                                      + 18%

                            10

                             0

                           -10
                                                                                                                      - 10%

                           -20
                                               - 18%
                                                                                                                                                                                - 26%
                           -30
                                 1990

                                        1991

                                                1992

                                                       1993

                                                              1994

                                                                     1995

                                                                            1996

                                                                                   1997

                                                                                          1998

                                                                                                 1999

                                                                                                        2000

                                                                                                               2001

                                                                                                                       2002

                                                                                                                              2003

                                                                                                                                     2004

                                                                                                                                            2005

                                                                                                                                                   2006

                                                                                                                                                          2007

                                                                                                                                                                 2008

                                                                                                                                                                        2009

                                                                                                                                                                               2010

                                                                                                                                                                                       2011

                                                                                                                                                                                              2012

                                                                                                                                                                                                     2013

                                                                                                                                                                                                            2014

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2015

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2016

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2018
                                                                                           Rental impact              Yield impact             Total CV growth
Source: JLL

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
… but rental growth to underpin capital value growth moving forward

                            Forecast average annual office capital value growth drivers (%): 2019-2020
                            6
                                                                                                  Rental Impact                       Yield Impact                      Annual CV Growth (Avg 19-20)

                            4

                            2

                            0

                           -2

                           -4

                           -6

                           -8
                                   Madrid

                                              Munich

                                                                                      Barcelona

                                                                                                                                                                          Lisbon

                                                                                                                                                                                                       Lyon

                                                                                                                                                                                                              Luxembourg
                                                                                                                                       Dusseldorf

                                                                                                                                                                                   Amsterdam
                                                                    Berlin

                                                                                                                                                                                               Paris
                                                                                                             Frankfurt/M
                                                          Hamburg

                                                                             Dublin

                                                                                                  Helsinki

                                                                                                                           Brussels

                                                                                                                                                    Milan

                                                                                                                                                            Rotterdam

Source: JLL, November 2018 forecasts

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Measure the market | Upside to rental forecast in tightest markets
JLL Supply Sensitivity Ranking
Steady State Vacancy Rate
At what vacancy rates do net effective rents stabilise?
Below this stable rate, rental growth starts to accelerate.
                    18,0

                    16,0

                    14,0
 Vacacny Rate (%)

                    12,0

                    10,0

                     8,0

                     6,0

                     4,0

                     2,0

                     0,0

                                                              Vacancy rate at which net effective rents are stable   Q4 2018
Source: JLL

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Measure the market | Hidden supply-demand imbalances could
impact rents
 Flexible Office Stock as % of Total stock                                                                                                                                                               Factoring in Flex Space vacancy
                                                                                                                                                                                                        ‘real’ vacancy rates not supporting rental growth
6,0%                                                                                                                                                              Creates a lack of
                                                                                                                                                                  visibility of:
5,0%                                                                                                                                                               vacancy                      16,0

                                                                                                                                                                   demand and tenant            14,0

4,0%                                                                                                                                                                  mix                        12,0
                                                                                                                                                                   rents – dynamic pricing
                                                                                                                                                                                                 10,0
3,0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                  8,0
                                                                                                                                                                  Hidden vacancy
                                                                                                                                                                                                  6,0
2,0%                                                                                                                                                              In the major office markets,
                                                                                                                                                                  unreported vacancy in flex      4,0

1,0%                                                                                                                                                              space could add 70–90 bps       2,0
                                                                                                                                                                  to vacancy rates                0,0

0,0%
                               Dublin

                                                                                                  Stockholm
                                                                              Berlin

                                                                                                                                       Munich

                                                                                                                                                        Hamburg
                      London
          Amsterdam

                                        Barcelona

                                                             Milan

                                                                                                              Düsseldorf
                                                                     Lisbon

                                                                                                                           Frankfurt
                                                    Madrid

                                                                                       Brussels

                                                                                                                                                Paris

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Vacancy rate at which net effective rents are stable
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q2 2018 Vacancy rate (incl flex vacancy)
Source: JLL

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  17
Opportunities and Challenges : Does the future look brighter?
Benefits of the Prime Capital Values approach:             We require:
               Easy to collect and timely                  Property stock/inventory databases
               Consistent definitions                       for all sectors
               Transactions based                          Leasing transactions databases for
               Long quarterly series and forecasts          all sectors
               Available on city, submarket,               Investment transactions databases
                country and aggregate level                  for all sectors
               Seems to predict turning points
                early in the cycle
               May lead valuation based measure

              But:
               “Notional” approach in thin or illiquid
                markets
               Does not cover the whole market
                (geography)

 © 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
                                                                                                  18
Opportunities and Challenges : Does the future look brighter?

Digitalisation of the RE Industry                                        Anti-Money Laundering and
   and the Rise of Proptech
                                                                         Beneficial Ownership rules

                                                          Transparency
                                                             Drivers

 Cyber security & data                                                       Environmental, Social
                                                                                and Corporate
                protection                                                    Governance (ESG)

© 2019 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
                                                                                                      19
Hela Hinrichs
                                     Director EMEA Research
                                     +49 (0)40 35011 237
                                     hela.hinrichs@eu.jll.com

This presentation is the sole property of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. and must not be copied, reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, either in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. The information
contained in this publication has been obtained from sources generally regarded to be reliable. However, no representation is made, or warranty given, in respect of the accuracy of this information. We would like to be informed of any inaccuracies so that
we may correct them. Jones Lang LaSalle does not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication.

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