OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...

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OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
OPEN DATA IS
ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL
BUSINESS RECOVERY
In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small
business credit need to be reimagined

Chris Evans
Nihal George
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

                               SYLVIA’S BUSINESS LOAN APPLICATION NIGHTMARE
                               Sylvia is a 38 year old dentist operating her own practice in the inner Sydney suburb of Surry Hills.
                               One afternoon, Sylvia is treating a patient when her dental chair malfunctions. The chair’s suspension
                               comes to a grinding halt, the drill stops spinning and the suction stops flowing. The chair is dead.

                               The Consumer Data Right (CDR)
                               The Consumer Data Right (CDR) in Australia is designed to give consumers and small
                               businesses control over how their data can be accessed and Sylvia is a 38
                                                                                             shared      year old
                                                                                                      securely    dentistdigital
                                                                                                               through    operating her own practice in th
                               channels. The legislation and its rules are more generally referred to as Open Banking orchair’s
                                                                                          dental  chair  malfunctions. The   Open suspension comes to a
                               Data, versions of which have been legislated in the United Kingdom and the European Union,
                               and promoted through policy in Singapore, India, Japan and South Korea among others.

                               1. AWARENESS
                               Under time pressure, Sylvia spends hours                                                                                                                                           the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   st
                               trolling through the internet looking for                                                                                                                                            t

                               a lender, not knowing how to compare them                                                                            CLOSED
                                                                                                                                                    for urgent
                                                                                                                                                    enquiries

                                  How Consumer Data Right can help
                                                                                                                                                    please contact
                                                                                                                                                    1800-JOB
                                                                                                                                                    KEEPER

                                  Real time comparison of accurate prices
                                  and features from publicly available
                                  product reference data
st operating her own practice in the inner Sydney suburb of Surry Hills. One afternoon, Sylvia is treating a patient when her
                           Personalised
The chair’s suspension comes  to a grindingoffers  if Sylvia
                                            halt, the         consents
                                                      drill stops       to and the suction stops flowing. The chair is dead.
                                                                  spinning
                                  share her banking or related transaction data

                                                                                                       1         AWARENESS
                                                                                                             2. APPLICATION
                                                                                                             SylviaPanicked,
                                                                                                                     has not  Sylvia spends hours trolling through the internet
                                                                                                                                previously been successful
                                                                                                                   looking for a lender not knowing if she’s missing offers or
                                                                                                             applying
                                                                                                                   how tofor  a loan
                                                                                                                           compare       with her existing bank, so
                                                                                                                                      them
                                                                                                                                                                                                   2           APP
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Sylvia
                                                                                                                                                                                                               throug
                                                                                                                                                                                                               financ
                                       the 1989 business
                                        statement has
                                                                                                             she must search for years of paper statements
                                         to be in here
                                          somewhere
                                                                                                             from Automatic
                                                                                                                    multiplecomparisons
                                                                                                                                banks to prove her financial                                                   Digita
                                                                                                             health• Easy comparison with automatic price searching
                                                                                                                      elsewhere.       Branches reopen but she                                                 • Bran
                                                                                                                   • Personalized offerings aligned to individual circumstances                                • Switc
                                                                                                             is uncomfortable         going    toatone
                                                                                                                   • Know the best rate available        duetime
                                                                                                                                                     any given  to COVID                                         open
                                                                                                             health concerns                                                                                   • Virtu

                                                                                                                  How Consumer Data Right can help

                                                                                                                  Digital onboarding enabled by access
                                                                                                                  to Sylvia's customer, product, account

ugh the internet
issing offers or
                         2          APPLICATION
                                    Sylvia doesn’t apply for a loan with her existing bank so she must delve
                                    through years of paper statements from multiple banks to prove her
                                                                                                                               3
                                                                                                                  and transactionalASSESSMENT
                                                                                                                  removing the need
                                                                                                                                     data on her consent
                                                                                                                                      forpass,
                                                                                                                                    Weeks  a branch          visitfrom the bank. Sylvia’s practice is
                                                                                                                                               it’s radio silence
                                                                                                                                           closed while she waits. She is worried that her turnover dropping
                                    financial health. Branches reopen but she is hesitant to go due to Covid-19   Virtual chat with due
                                                                                                                                    personalised          loanthe assessment
                                                                                                                                        to Covid-19 will impact

                                                                                                                  suggestions based on Sylvia's data
                                    Digital onboarding                                                                                     Whole of wallet view                  Transaction
ching                               • Branch visit not needed                                                                              • Link years of consistent datasets for lender
                                                                                                                                                                                 fee      to analyse
                                                                                                                                                                                     - $350
 circumstances                      • Switch effortlessly with automatic handling of account                                               • No need to manually source financials from multiple accounts
me                                    opening and administration
                                    • Virtual engagement to offer personalised loan suggestions

                   © Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                                                                   2
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
ne afternoon, Sylvia is treating a patient
                                       enquiries
                                                 when her
                                       please contact
and the suction stops flowing. The chair      is dead.
                                       1800-JOB
                                                    KEEPER

                 Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

                                      Sylvia is a 38 year old dentist operating her own practice in the inner Sydney suburb of Surry Hills. One afternoon, Sylvia is treating a patient w
                                      dental chair malfunctions. The chair’s suspension comes to a grinding halt, the drill stops spinning and the suction stops flowing. The chair is

            1         AWARENESS
                      Panicked, Sylvia spends hours trolling through the internet
                      looking for a lender not knowing if she’s missing offers or
                      how to compare them
                                                                                                  2             APPLICATION
                                                                                                                  3. ASSESSMENT
                                                                                                                Sylvia doesn’t apply for a loan with her existing bank so she must delve
                                                                                                                      She
                                                                                                                through      is ofworried
                                                                                                                          years               that from
                                                                                                                                   paper statements   themultiple
                                                                                                                                                            shortbanks
                                                                                                                                                                     revenue
                                                                                                                                                                           to prove decrease
                                                                                                                                                                                    her
                                                                                                                financial health. Branches reopen but she is hesitant to go due to Covid-19
                                                                                                                                                                                                            3     ASSES
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Weeks pass
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  closed while
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  due to Covi
                                                                                                                      she experienced due to COVID-19 will impact
                                                                                                                      her assessment
                      Automatic comparisons                                                                     Digital onboarding                                                                                Whole of wa
                      • Easy comparison with automatic price searching                                          • Branchthe
                                                                                                                          visit notbusiness
                                                                                                                              1989   needed                                                                       • Link years
                                                                                                                           statement has
                      • Personalized offerings aligned to individual circumstances                              • Switch effortlessly   with automatic handling of account
                                                                                                                            to be in here
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  • No need to
                      • Know the best rate available at any given time                                                    How Consumer Data Right can help
                                                                                                                  opening and    administration
                                                                                                                             somewhere
                                                              CLOSED                                            • Virtual engagement to offer personalised loan suggestions
                                                              for urgent
                                                              enquiries
                                                              please contact
                                                                                                                          Automated credit assessment based
                                                                                                                          on real time transaction data and more
                                                              1800-JOB
                                                              KEEPER

                                                                                                                          accurate forecasting of cash flows

must delve
rove her
                            34. DECISION   ASSESSMENT
                               Sylvia’sWeeksloanpass,
                               The eligibility
                                                    application            is rejected.
                                                          it’s radio silence

                                                       criteria       excludes
                                                                               from the bank. Sylvia’s practice is
                                           closed while she waits. She is worried that her turnover dropping
                                                                                      businesses

                     1                                                                                  2                                                                                                   3
ue to Covid-19                             due to Covid-19     will impact   the assessment                                                                Loan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                ASSESSM
                                                                                                                                                          declined
                               inAWARENESS
                                   operation for less than 12 months.                                              APPLICATION
                               Sylvia’s     practice
                                 Panicked, Whole
                                           Sylvia spends   is view
                                                          hours
                                                   of wallet    11   months
                                                                 trolling through   old
                                                                                   the internet
                                                                               Transaction
                                 looking for a lender not knowing if she’s missing offers or
                                                                                                                   Sylvia doesn’t apply for a loan with her existing bank so she must delve
                                                                                                                   through years of paper statements from multiple banks to prove her
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Weeks pass, it’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                closed while sh
                                                                               fee - $350
                                          • Link years
                                 how to compare  them of consistent datasets for lender to analyse                    financial health. Branches reopen but she is hesitant to go due to Covid-19               due to Covid-19
                                           • No need to manually source financials from multiple accounts

                                   How Consumer Data Right can help
                                 Automatic comparisons                                                                Digital onboarding                                                                        Whole of walle
                                 • Easy comparison with automatic price searching                                     • Branch visit not needed                                                                 • Link years of c

                                   Fairer and faster credit decisions based on
                                 • Personalized offerings aligned to individual circumstances
                                 • Know the best rate available at any given time
                                                                                                                      • Switch effortlessly with automatic handling of account
                                                                                                                        opening and administration
                                                                                                                                                                                                                • No need to m

                                   real time financial performance data that will                                     • Virtual engagement to offer personalised loan suggestions

                                   enable more accurate assessment of current
                                   performance (including e.g. COVID impacts)
                                   and future cash flow serviceability

            4         DECISION
                      Sylvia’s loan application is rejected. The eligibility criteria excludes
                      businesses in operation for less than 12 months. Sylvia’s practice
                      is 11 months old.                       Ms. Sylvia, we regret to inform
                                                                                                            5 5. DISBURSEMENT
                                                                                                                          DISBURSEMENT
                                                                                                                        After multiple rejections Sylvia finally has her loan approved elsewhere.
                                                                                                                      After   multiple
                                                                                                                        She checks  her bankrejections         Sylvia
                                                                                                                                              account obsessively,
                                                                                                                        with a hefty transaction fee
                                                                                                                                                             Loan
                                                                                                                                                            declined
                                                                                                                                                                     the finally   has
                                                                                                                                                                          funds have arrived along
                                                                                                                                                                                                            6     PAYM
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  After just 2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  receives a d
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  of her chair
                                                              you that your 2 most recent
                                                                                                                      her loan approved elsewhere. She checks
                                                             direct debit payments for your
                      Behaviour prediction                   outstanding loan were declined
                                                                                Transaction
                                                                                fee - $350
                                                                                                                      her  bankmovement
                                                                                                                        Smoother  account       obsessively, the funds have
                                                                                                                                            of funds                                                              Outcome p
                      • Track aggregate spending patterns to extrapolate future outcomes                                • No payment delays                                                                       • Proactive
                                                          such and
                      • Avoid biased rejections due toanomalies we will
                                                                   widerbeeconomic
                                                                            removingimpacts
                                                                                       your                           arrived along with a hefty transaction fee
                                                                                                                          • Direct account-to-account payments eliminate transaction                              • Receive st
                        (such as COVID-19)               dental chair from your premises                                    costs charged to the customer                                                           upcoming
                                                                to reclaim the funds. Yours                                                                                                                                    d
                                                                    Sincerely, Mr Bank
                                                                                                                          How Consumer Data Right can help

                                                                                                                          Faster and lower cost payments
                                                                                                                          enabled by account-to-account payments
                        How Open Banking can help
                                                                                                                          authorised at point of sale when

                     4 66. REPAYMENTS                                                                             5                                                                                         6
                                                                                                                          write access is introduced to the CDR
                                 DECISION
                                           PAYMENTS                                                                            DISBURSEMENT                                                                     PAYMEN
                                 Sylvia’s loan application is rejected. The eligibility criteria excludes                       After multiple rejections Sylvia finally has her loan approved elsewhere.       After just 2 mis
pproved elsewhere.             After 2 missed repayments due to bad timing
                                 businessesAfter
                                 is 11 months
                                              in operation for less payments
                                                   just 2 missed
                                                old.
                                                                    than 12 months.
                                                                                 due to Sylvia’s
                                                                                           bad practice
                                                                                                 timing of direct debits Sylvia She checks her bank account obsessively, the funds have arrived along           receives a defa
have arrived along                          receives a default notice from her bank. They are taking possession                 with a hefty transaction fee                                                    of her chair to
                               of direct      debits
                                           of her         Sylvia
                                                   chair to reclaimreceives      a default
                                                                    the outstanding    debt      notice
                               from      her
                                 Behaviour     bank. They are taking possession
                                            prediction
                                                                                                                                                      Ms. Sylvia,
                                                                                                                               Smoother movement of funds                                                       Outcome pred
                                 • Track aggregate spending patterns to extrapolate future outcomes                            • No payment delays                                                              • Proactive rest
                               of• Avoid
                                    herbiased
                                          chair
                                           Outcome  toprediction
                                                        reclaim
                                               rejections           the and
                                                          due toanomalies  outstanding          debt
                                                                              wider economic impacts                           • Direct account-to-account payments eliminate transaction                       • Receive strate
                                   (such as •COVID-19)
                                              Proactive restructuring to avoid dishonor penalties                                    we
                                                                                                                                 costs     regret
                                                                                                                                       charged         to inform you that
                                                                                                                                               to the customer                                                    upcoming pay
nsaction                                   • Receive strategically timed ‘nudge’ notifications for                               your 2 most recent direct debit
                                             upcoming payments
                                   How Consumer Data Right can help                                                               payments for your outstanding
                                                                                                                                      loan were declined due
                                                                                                                                        to insufficient funds.
                                   Real time alerts from continuous connection
                                   to
                                   Howunderlying     operating
                                       Open Banking can help   accounts enables                                                    As such you are now in default
                                   timely nudges for upcoming payments and                                                             and must take action
                                                                                                                                        to clear your debt...
                                   proactive restructuring to avoid penalties
                                                                                                                                                Yours Sincerely,
                                                                                                                                                   Mr. Bank

                 © Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                                                                             3
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            THE PROMISE OF OPEN DATA

            For consumers and businesses, Open Data should unlock materially smoother, faster and more
            innovative experiences. Processes that were previously paper-based and cumbersome can now
            become digital and instant. Customer onboarding and account switching can be completed in
            a few clicks. Brand new services such as subscription management and behaviour-based offers
            can become more common. While the use cases are far and wide across industries
            and segments, the common denominator is that they lead to better customer outcomes.

            In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, a critical opportunity that we believe Open
            Data must enable is easier, faster and more robust access to credit for small businesses.
            Historically, obtaining small business credit products from lenders has been challenged
            by manual processes, long timeframes, and high rejection rates. While fintechs and some
            leading banks invested to address these challenges pre-crisis, few have been able to continue
            lending at scale. Despite substantial government support, new loans to non-financial
            businesses are down 2.2% from March to August this year according to APRA. We believe
            that real-time secure access to business financial performance data through Open Data can
            be a key enabler of sustainable credit for small businesses post COVID-19.

            As Sylvia’s business loan application journey above illustrates, Open Data can unlock more
            digital customer experiences, real-time and verified data across providers as well as faster
            and more accurate credit assessment and monitoring. While some of these experiences
            can be provided now, they are expensive to build and not all players have access to the data
            required to deliver them.

            Off to a slow start
            Australia’s CDR regime went live on 1 July 2020 following eight months of industry testing
            with early data recipients and the major banks (see exhibit 1). CDR will first apply to the
            banking sector followed by telecommunications and energy sectors.

            There remains, however, a general lack of customer awareness of the potential benefits
            of the CDR. The CDR ecosystem is still immature and is largely discussed in just banking
            and technology circles. While a few early adopters have started to experiment, the current
            challenging economic context means that take-up at major financial institutions has been
            slower than hoped.

            A key barrier to utilisation of CDR is the process to become an Accredited Data Recipient (ADR).
            Companies seeking to receive data needed to be accredited by the Australian Competition and
            Consumer Commission (ACCC), which has high standards for technical, business and customer
            readiness. These standards come with costs and therefore needs a clear commercial case. With
            oversight shifting from the ACCC to the Treasury recently, there will be renewed emphasis on
            increasing awareness and participation in the CDR ecosystem.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                 4
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            Exhibit 1: Overview of key CDR milestones from 1 July 2020

              July 2020                               November 2020               July 2021
              CDR goes live. Major                    Major banks make            All other non-major banks
              banks (ANZ, NAB, CBA,                   available account and       and lenders are required
              WBC) make available                     transaction data for home   to allow customers to
              account and transaction                 loans, personal loans and   share product, account
              data for deposit accounts,              mortgage offset accounts    and transaction data for
              debit and credit cards to                                           all banking products
              Accredited Data Recipients

            Source: ACCC, timeline simplified for illustration

            While there are many use cases for the first implementations of CDR, those that address
            existing business problems and customer experiences are likely to be prioritised over
            creating new capabilities.

            UNLOCKING SMALL BUSINESS CREDIT
            IN THE NEW NORMAL
            2 in 5 small businesses expect reduced ability
            to pay operating expenses over COVID-19
            Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

            Access to credit is the lifeblood of small business
            COVID-19 has brought an unprecedented change to our definition of “normal”. Australia’s GDP
            is expected to decline by over 5% in 2020 and small businesses have been especially hard hit.
            The recovery may be long and will vary significantly by sector and region.

            Our research with small businesses in Q1-Q2 this year raised that access to credit and managing
            cashflow are the most pressing needs across sectors. Small business owners highlighted that
            visibility and control over expenses and cash reserves (>70% did not have this), quick and easy
            access to credit to overcome short term cash needs (most either had loan applications rejected
            or felt the process took too long) and collecting payments on time (>50% of invoices were paid
            late) were three factors critical to their survival and recovery.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                5
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            Accordingly, there is an increasing need for lenders to help by providing greater access to capital.
            Small businesses require capital both to sustain cash flows in the short term, as government
            support is withdrawn, as well as to deliver business model changes required to address
            behavioural shifts that the pandemic has accelerated. These include a step change in the adoption
            of digital payments, e-commerce and virtual ways of working that are changing the way services
            for small businesses need to be provided.

            I need instant decisions to fund shortfalls in my cashflow.
            I was hoping the government guarantee would allow lenders
            to offer more affordable loans but I can’t justify the cost.
            It’s just too high.
                                                                                          Hairdressing salon owner

            When the government announced its AU$40 billion SME loan guarantee scheme in March 2020
            business owners were hopeful the stimulus package would provide quick, simple access to
            affordable credit. By July, the well-intentioned economic support had not realized its potential
            with just 15,600 new business loans worth AU$1.5 billion issued. While the government
            guarantees half of the potential losses, lenders are exposed to the remaining amount, a risk
            that is particularly heightened due to lack of visibility into future cashflows.

            This lower utilization highlights the issues for small business credit on both the supply and
            demand side. On one hand, business owners need speed and certainty on any credit decision.
            They cannot afford to wait for weeks for a decision in the current climate and are uncomfortable
            taking on additional credit that might also require personal collateral to secure. Many also prefer
            not to pay the higher rates that non-bank lenders offer as an alternative.

            On the other hand, lenders want to provide credit, but are challenged to efficiently collect
            the data required to make a fast, robust lending decision. Where some lenders have enabled
            digital collection of data (for example through screen scraping), underlying models and
            processes will still need to change to develop a view of the current and potential future
            performance of the small business in the “new normal”. While updates to the scheme were
            introduced from October, it remains to be seen whether increasing the loan size, tenure or
            security requirements will do much to address these challenges in the short term.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                       6
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            Credit assessment needs to change
            There is a growing challenge for lenders to originate and manage credit in the “new-normal”.
            Existing credit assessments are typically backwards looking and calibrated on a historical
            period of very little financial stress (in Australia). This means their ability to efficiently assess
            the ongoing viability and credit worthiness of businesses using traditional approaches, often
            anchored on accounting metrics and more qualitative assessment of business performance,
            will be materially lower than before. Ongoing government support schemes such as JobSeeker,
            JobKeeper, Government backed loans, interest and principal holiday periods, and tax write-offs
            add significant complexity to any assessment of financial viability.

            From a practical perspective, this means that the time and cost of assessing credit for small
            businesses is only set to increase unless new data and ways of assessing viability can be
            incorporated. The CDR provides direct transaction level access to operational and credit accounts
            that allow lenders to secure real time information on how a company has managed its cost
            and revenue profile through the crisis. Utilisation of this data and capability will be essential
            for bridging the supply and demand challenges of cost and complexity vs. speed and
            transparency for small business lending. Open data has already started to be used to solve
            lending problems, as shown in Exhibit 2

            Exhibit 2: The first CDR powered loan approval, 1 July 2020

              3,000 transactions                                                                       Next morning
                                                                                   A few hours
                securely shared            20 seconds         2 minutes                                  applicant
                                                                                  for RAB credit
                 with Regional             to complete       to undertake                              electronically
                                                                                team to approve
               Australia Bank in          data collection   categorisation                             accepted the
                                                                                     the loan
              just a few seconds                                                                         loan offer

            Source: Basiq, Regional Australia Bank

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                          7
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            REIMAGINING CREDIT WITH CDR
            The CDR in Australia is providing a timely and much needed opportunity for lenders to upgrade
            the efficiency and effectiveness of their credit assessment and management processes. While
            there are many beneficial applications of the CDR, we observe two important use cases related
            to credit in the short term:

            Exhibit 3: Illustrative viability assessment of a department store
            A department store could see up to 4x variation in liquidity requirement based
            on how the economy recovers
                              Recovery Scenarios                                   Affordability Assessment                     Outcome
                                                                          $'00M
                                                                              6
                                                                              5

                                                                              4
                                                                              3
               Smart and                                                      2
                                                                                                                                 Affordable
                also lucky
                                                                              1
                                                                              0

                                                                             -1

                                                                             -2
                              Q1   Q2     Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2     Q3   Q4
                                        2020             2021             Years:    19   20   21   22   23    24      25   26

                                                                          $'00M
                                                                              5
                                                                              4

                                                                              3
                                                                              2
            Plausible but                                                     1
                                                                                                                                Maybe
              pessimistic                                                                                                       affordable
                                                                              0

                                                                             -1

                                                                             -2
                                                                             -3
                              Q1   Q2     Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2     Q3   Q4
                                        2020             2021             Years:    19   20   21   22   23    24      25   26

                                                                          $'00M
                                                                              4
                                                                              3
                                                                              2

                                                                              1
                 Economic                                                     0                                                 Not
                     crisis                                                                                                     affordable
                                                                             -1

                                                                             -2

                                                                             -3

                                                                             -4
                              Q1   Q2     Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2     Q3   Q4
                                        2020             2021             Years:    19   20   21   22   23    24      25   26

                                   Illustrative cases of COVID-19             Free Cash Flow not usable            Able to pay the debt
                                   and partial lockdowns                      to pay the debt                      Not able to pay the debt
                                                                              Free Cash Flow usable                Total new debt
                                                                              to pay the debt
            Source: Company filings; Oliver Wyman Analysis

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                                                8
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

                   
            Use Case 1
            Next-gen credit decisioning
            It will be challenging to assess credit decisions going forward by looking at the prior year financials
            of a business and making a qualitative assessment of its ability to compete. Assessment in the
            new normal needs to form a view of both how the business is performing now, using up to date,
            granular financial information (such as transaction level cash flow data) as well as how it will be able
            to service its debt going forward. CDR will provide access to digital, verified, up to date financial
            account information (up to seven years of historical data) that enable forward looking estimates
            of loan serviceability based on granular cash flow analyses of cost profiles, revenue seasonality,
            diversity and concentration under future sector recovery scenarios. As the data is provided in digital
            form, manual verification tasks are reduced and opportunities for automation are increased.

            This will provide a positive experience for both the lender and the small business. The small
            business will have a loan assessment that would require materially less paperwork, a faster time
            to decision, and an assessment that takes into account their latest financial performance.
            The lender would have a materially more efficient data collection process, lower operational risk,
            more granular, accurate and up to date financial information, and the ability to overlay future
            recovery scenarios in a consistent and efficient manner at the point of credit decision.

            Use Case 2
            Proactive portfolio monitoring
            One of the biggest challenges that lenders are wrestling with through the crisis is how to build
            an accurate, current picture of their small business portfolio health. Understanding which
            businesses are struggling or require credit support is impossible to do efficiently without access
            to holistic, up to date, granular business financial performance data. Even lenders that act as
            the main financial institution (MFI) for the small business (i.e. they provide the small businesses
            primary transaction account) cannot comprehensively do so as they would not know if the
            business has other financial service products or accounts at another financial institution,
            let alone have up to date data on them.

            The CDR aims to provide ongoing real-time access to all customer permissioned transaction,
            savings and credit products by next year. Access to this information will enable lenders
            to generate real-time reporting and analyses of small business financial performance based
            on transaction data. It also enables more accurate, proactive predictions of potential hardship
            and customer support requirements, reducing costs for the customer and improving
            risk outcomes for the lender.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                         9
OPEN DATA IS ESSENTIAL FOR SMALL BUSINESS RECOVERY - In the emerging new normal, approaches to underwriting small business credit need to be ...
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            IMPERATIVES FOR LENDERS

            As small business lenders reset their strategic priorities in the new normal, credit innovation
            leveraging CDR should be at the top of the agenda.

            We recommend three actions to get started:

            • Prioritize use cases along the credit journey based on impact and return on investment (ROI).
                 Assess how your baseline capability serves existing or target customers’ credit needs.
                 Identify CDR use cases that resolve gaps along the customer journey and increase business
                 efficiencies. Develop a use case roadmap and business case based on customer impact
                 metrics e.g. cost of acquisition, time-to-yes and ROI e.g. revenue uplift, NPL reductions,
                 lower recovery costs.
            • Secure accreditation as a Data Recipient in the CDR ecosystem.
                 To become an Accredited Data Recipient (ADR), there are specific technical and security
                 standards required to be compliant. This requires an ongoing program of work to keep up
                 with evolving CDR standards. Running proof of concepts in a simulated CDR environment
                 enables faster testing of internal and customer experiences prior to accreditation.
            • Design forward looking credit platform and capabilities.
                 Double down on investments in the capabilities required to implement identified use cases
                 such as transaction-based credit models using machine learning, scenario-based cash flow
                 and liquidity forecasting, and real time portfolio monitoring with early warning signals.
                 For many this will likely also include the identification and deployment of new technology
                 and data capabilities to enable real time ingestion of the CDR data services.

            Interview with Jill Berry — Co-Founder and CEO of Adatree
            Adatree is an Australian regtech that offers an Open Banking industry sandbox to explore
            a full ADR experience as well as a Data Recipient Platform with the technical components needed
            to participate in the CDR ecosystem.

            What use cases enabled by CDR are you seeing lenders implement across the small business
            credit journey? Can you give an example of what one looks like?

            We see lenders become a part of the CDR to implement three main use cases: credit assessment,
            credit monitoring, and customer onboarding.

            Let’s take Bill, the owner of the local pizza restaurant who wants to expand into four new
            postcodes. Bill applies for a business loan through a digital non-bank lender. The non-bank
            lender is an ADR and Bill gives permission for them to access his data. Bill applied for the loan
            through a digital app, consenting for the ADR to access his data. The lender can see up to seven
            years’ worth of transaction history, and while Bill’s credit score isn’t great, they believe he has
            capacity to pay the loan since they look at all of his transactional behaviours. Within a few days,
            Bill’s application has been approved. His onboarding is quick and paperless.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                    10
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            Within the first four months of paying down the loan, the lender notices some red flags in
            Bill’s finances since they actively monitor his transactions as an ADR. They actively reach out
            to him to offer financial assistance so they can improve Bill’s situation and fix it before things
            get any worse. After 1.5 years, the lender automatically identifies a better product for Bill based
            on the CDR data they can access and offer him a more suitable alternative, based on his actual
            behaviours. This new product saves Bill a substantial amount each month and the lender
            is rewarded with ongoing loyalty from Bill.

            While the CDR is in its infancy in Australia, it is pretty easy to see an example like the one above
            coming to life. Innovative lenders are taking on CDR as an amazing opportunity to leverage vast
            amount of data to better service customers and grow their business.

            What impact do you see these use cases having on the industry — customers as well
            as lenders?

            CDR will transform the way industries offer credit and both lenders and their small business
            customers will benefit greatly.

            Cash flow is critical to small business survival, and sometimes access to credit when businesses
            need it can be difficult to get. Maybe their credit score isn’t where it needs to be, or the lengthy
            application process or red tape is a barrier? CDR will both speed up the time to get credit and
            broaden the scope of people accessing credit.

            CDR will enable lenders to create their own ‘credit score’ for small businesses based on up to
            seven years worth of financial data. No longer having to rely on potentially out of date credit
            scores means lenders can increase the reach of customers they may not have targeted before
            and can be more confident in a small businesses ability to repay due to greater transparency
            of their financial situation. The reduction of this credit risk and the financial implications of the
            reduction in bad debt will drastically transform the industry. Access to this data will be available
            to any ADR, making the opportunity ripe for new entrants into the market. In addition,
            the automation of the process will have a dramatic cost saving effect.

            This is a win-win situation. Businesses will access credit when they need it most in a quick,
            simple and secure way, and they can be helped should they get into financial trouble.
            Innovative lenders can acquire customers, understand customers’ actual behaviours, better
            manage their front and back books, and create significant cost efficiencies through process
            improvement and automation.

            What hurdles should ADR aspirants be prepared for and how can they be overcome?

            I think the main hurdles are around becoming part of the CDR ecosystem and actually becoming
            accredited as an ADR. If you did want to do things yourself, costs can run into the millions just
            for technical and security readiness from examples we have seen.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                      11
Open Data Is Essential For Small Business Recovery

            It isn’t just about being accredited; it is about maintaining it too, with keeping up to date on
            technical and security standards for e.g. when joint accounts and more complex scenarios are
            introduced. The time needed to understand the legislation, the software and security expertise
            required to become an ADR and the ongoing software and engineering costs can be a barrier
            to entry for some organisations.

            One of the best ways to overcome these barriers is to partner with an out-of-the-box Open
            Banking Provider like Adatree. At Adatree we have created technology solutions for organisations
            to comply with the CDR and access Open Banking easily. We offer a turnkey software solution for
            organisations to give them security, reliability and adherence to the legislation that is quick and
            cost efficient, at least 90% cheaper than building it yourself. Integrating into Adatree’s one API
            enables you to focus on your customer value propositions instead of compliance.

            The Open Banking future is upon us and organisations that do not want to get left behind need
            to start thinking today about how CDR will enhance their business and help them grow their future.

© Oliver Wyman                                                                                                    12
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AUTHORS

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Partner
Chris.Evans@oliverwyman.com

Nihal George
Principal
Nihal.George@oliverwyman.com

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Oliver Wyman – A Marsh & McLennan Company                                                                                www.oliverwyman.com
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