Opportunities and challenges under the new trend of the electronics industry - Speaker: Jingjing Huang Deputy principal analyst of ESM ...
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Opportunities and challenges under the
new trend of the electronics industry
Speaker: Jingjing Huang
Deputy principal analyst of ESM
Tel/WeChat: 18565808961
• 1. Global and Chinese semiconductor markets • 2. The situation of the various applications • 3. The technologies and challenges of components • 4. Summary
2018 Sales forecast of the global semiconductor market • According to the data published by WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), the global semiconductor market reached $412.2 billion in 2017 with a growth rate of 21.6%, which sets a new record. • It will reach US $451.2 billion in 2018, an increase of 9% from 2017. • The industry scale is expected to be US $530 billion in 2020.
Demand scale of Chinese IC Market
Chinese IC market demand grew by 18.2% year-on-year, reaching $211.91 billion in
2017. It is expected that the annual growth rate will remain above 13% in 2018-2020,
and the market demand will be over $330 billion by 2020.
The prediction of the increase of the Chinese IC market scale
30.0 3332.0 3500.0
2922.8
25.0 3000.0
2567.8
2199.1 2500.0
20.0
1859.9 2000.0
1645.4 18.2
15.0 18.2
14.0 1500.0
13.0 13.8
10.0
1000.0
5.0 500.0
0.6
0.0 0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020*
Scale of Chinese market
中国IC市场规模（亿美元） Growth rate (%)
同比增长（%）
(US $100 million)
Source: EET-China/ EDN-China/ESM-China/Robotics-China market researchSales growth and forecast of domestic IC
According to statistics, the sales of Chinese IC in 2017 reached 541.1 billion yuan (about
80 billion US dollars), an increase of 24.8% year-on-year. It is expected to grow by ~20%
from 2018 to 2020 consistently and reach 950 billion yuan ($150 billion) by 2020.
Sales growth and forecast of domestic IC
10000 9500 30
24.8
9000
7920 25
8000
19.7 20.1 22.0 6600
7000
20
20.0
6000 5411 20.0
5000 4335 15
4000 3610
10
3000
2000
5
1000
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020*
Domestic sales
本地IC销售额（亿元RMB）
(￥100 million) Growth rate (%)
同比增长（%）
Source: 1. EET-China/ EDN-China/ESM-China/Robotics-China market researchProduction growth and forecast of domestic IC
156.5 billion domestic ICs were produced in 2017, grew by 18.2% compared with
the same period of last year. The number is expected to reach 185 billion pieces in
2018.
中国国产IC产量增长与预测
Production growth and forecast of domestic
（单位：亿块） IC
3000 (One hundred million pieces ) 60
2800
2576
2600
50
2400
2183
2200
2000 1850 40
1800
1565
1600
1324 30
1400
1200 1087 21.8
1000 18.2 18.0 18.0 20
800 18.2
600
10
400
5.0
200
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020*
Source: 1. EET-China/ EDN-China/ESM-China/Robotics-China market research ;
2. China monthly statisticsGrowth trend
Year 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020*
Increase of IC
market scale 0.6 13 13.9 12 11 10
Comparison of the growth trend of Chinese electronic
(%)
component markets
Increase of
16 Increase of IC
IC市场规模同比增长 market scale
market scale (%)
14 （%） for discrete -1.4 9.3 12.3 14.6 9.7 9.4
12 component
Increase of market
10 scale for discrete
分立器件市场规模同比增 (%)
component (%)
长（%）
8 Increase of
6 Increase of market market scale
scale for passive
被动电子元件市场规模同 0.8 11.2 5.3 12.8 9 9
for passive
4 component (%)
比增长（%）
component (%)
2
0 Total growth (%)
合计同比增长（%）
Total growth
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 0.6 7.7 10.7 10.9 9.9 9.4
-2 (%)
-4Manufacturing PMI maintained over 50% in the
first half of 2018 and keeps growing
According to the China Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) released by the Service Industry Survey
Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Logistics and Purchasing Federation, the
Chinese Manufacturing PMI was 51.5% in June, and continued to increase overall.
(Note: PMI, Purchasing Manager Index, usually takes 50% as the dividing point of the economic
strength. PMI higher than 50% indicates an overall economic expansion, otherwise an overall
economic contraction.)
Since the beginning of this year, manufacturing PMI maintained above 50%, with a mean value of
51.3% in the first half.
Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
50%-No change compared with last month
Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun.
2017 2018
Source: National Bureau of StatisticsOutput statistics of Chinese major electronic
products from Jan.2018 to May. 2018
From January to May 2018, the output of industrial robots, color
TV sets, household air conditioners, integrated circuits, solar
cells, lithium-ion batteries increased by 33.7%, 17.8%, 16.1%,
14.6%, 13.7% and 13.4% respectively, while from January to
May, the output of the products with great decline was SPC
switches, dropped by 14.2% year on year. (as can be seen from
the table on the next page)2017 Jan.-Dec. 2018 Jan.-May.
Name of the products Unit
Cumulative output Growth (%) Cumulative output Growth (%)
Mobile communication handset Hundreds of millions 19.221 1.6 7.085 3.8
SPC exchange Tens of thousands of lines 1240.8 -17.8 324.1 -14.2
Mobile communication base station Tens of thousands of channels 27233.4 -19.4 11466.1 -2.7
Fax machine Tens of thousands 228.3 30.0 79.8 -5.9
Microcomputer Tens of thousands 30678.4 6.8 11223.9 -0.2
IC Hundreds of millions 1564.9 18.2 692.7 14.6
Photoelectron component Hundreds of millions 11770.7 16.9 4536.2 2.7
Lithium-ion battery Hundreds of millions 111.128 31.3 45.838 13.4
Solar cell Tens of thousands of KW 9453.9 30.6 3762.8 13.7
Instrument and apparatuse Tens of thousands 22378.4 -5.6 8377.8 6.2
Color TV set Tens of thousands 17233.1 1.6 7339.3 17.8
Household air conditioner Tens of thousands 18039.8 26.4 9025.4 16.1
Household refrigerator Tens of thousands 8670.3 13.6 3268.6 4.4
Household washing machine Tens of thousands 7500.9 3.2 2856.6 1.2
Industrial robot Tens of thousands 13.108 68.1 6.007 33.7
Automobile Tens of thousands 2994.2 3.2 1199.3 2.0
Among them: sedan Tens of thousands 1199.0 -0.8 487.7 4.3
SUV Tens of thousands 1033.4 9.1 406.8 2.6
Truck Tens of thousands 344.1 19.7 161.0 10.3• 1. Global and Chinese semiconductor markets • 2. The situation of the various applications • 3. The technologies and challenges of components • 4. Summary
Smartphone market
●Annual sales of smartphones in China declined in 2017, and the demand
remains weak in 2018.
● In the second quarter of 2018, HUAWEI surpassed Apple and ranked second.
The top five are SAMSUNG, HUAWEI, Apple, Mi and OPPO.
Time Sales of the smartphone Decline Remarks
2017 459 million (China) 4% The first fall
2017 1462 million (Worldwide) 0.5% The first fall
Jan.–Mar. 2018 81 million and 870 thousand (China) 27.0% Continue to fall
Q1, 2018 334 million (Worldwide) 2.9%
Jan.–Jun. 2018 185 million (China) 17.8%
HUAWEI surpassed Apple and
Q2, 2018 342 million (Worldwide) 1.8%
ranked second
Source: IDC, Canalys, China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT)Brand concentration Worldwide: The top five mobile phone brands are SAMSUNG, HUAWEI, Apple, Mi and OPPO. Their sales accounted for 59.9% of the total market in the second quarter of 2017, while that for 2018 was 66.8%. China: The top five are HUAWEI, OPPO, vivo, Mi and Apple. Their sales accounted for 67% of the total market in 2016, while that for 2017 was 77%. The share of other mobile phone brands is decreasing, and the trend of shipments to the head is obvious.
●Innovations in 3D face recognition, In-display fingerprint scanning, and
comprehensive screen
Driven by ‘Face ID’ used in iPhone X , 3D face recognition has become a new trend and is
sought after by mainstream mobile phone manufacturers.
Smartphone 3D face recognition Technical characteristics Date released
Speckle type 3D
iPhoneX 3000 infrared dot matrix Sep. 2017
structured light
Coded 3D structured
Mi 8 Explorer Geometric coded graphics May. 2018
light
Time difference of the Infrared
VIVO TOF Jun. 2018
reflection
3D degree of the structured light
OPPO Find X Speckle pattern Jun. 2018
projected onto objects
Time difference of the Infrared
OPPO R17 Pro TOF Aug. 2018
reflection
Three next generation Speckle type 3D
iPhone and two new structured light 3000 infrared dot matrix Sep. 2018
iPadAndroid mobile pioneered the upsurge of fingerprint application
In-Display
Smartphone Fingerprint Chip supplier Date released
Scanning
VIVO X20 plus
In-Display Fingerprint Optical Synaptics Jan. 2018
Scanning
VIVO X21 Optical Synaptics Mar. 2018
HUAWEI mate RS
Optical Synaptics, GOODIX Apr. 2018
Porsche
Mi 8 Explorer Optical Synaptics, GOODIX May. 2018
VIVO NEX Optical GOODIX Jun. 2018
OPPO R17 Optical SILEAD Aug. 2018
SAMSUNG S10 Ultrasonic Qualcomm 2019Comprehensive Screen Supply chain support AMOLED、Chips of in-display fingerprint scanning、VSCEL、TDDI chips
5G is around the corner
Company 5G chips Basic situation Schedule
Qualcomm Modem Snapdragon X50, They support operation under wave The launch of mobile
Chipset Snapdragon 855 spectrum below 6 GHz and multi band phones may be at the end
millimeter wave. of 2018 or early 2019, start
with Lenovo.
MediaTek 5G Baseband chip Helio M70 It supports independent (SA) and non- Launch in 2019
independent (NSA) network
architecture. It supports sub-6GHz
band, millimeter wave band, high
power terminal (HPUE) and other 5G
key technologies. The download rate
can be up to 5Gbps.
Intel Modem XMM8060 It supports 28GHz, Sub-6GHz bands, Launch in the middle of
and is downward compatible with 2019
2G/3G/4G networks through dual
connections, including CDMA.
SAMSUNG Chipset Exynos 9820 5100 covers 5G bands below 6GHz and Samsung S10 in 2019
Exynos Modem 5100 millimeter wave bands, and is 5100 will be sampled at
downward compatible with all the end of 2018
2G/3G/4G communication standards
except CDMA2000.
HUAWEI 5G chip01 Balong It supports current mainstream 5G In June of next year, 5G
bands, including low frequency mobile phone Mate 30 will
(Sub6GHz) and high frequency be launched, the 5G chip
millimeter wave, the highest downlink Kirin will be integrated
reaches 2.3Gbps. with Balong baseband.Tablet PC
●From the fourth quarter of 2014, tablet shipments kept declining for 15 consecutive quarter.
Tablet PC shipments kept declining
6000
5000
7.9%
4000
8.6% 3.4% 13.5% 5.4%
3000 11.7%
2000
1000
0
Source: IDC
●Removable tablet computers stimulated the demand of new tablet and the replacement of old
computers.
●Top five tablet producers: Apple, SAMSUNG, HUAWEI, Lenovo, Amazon
According to IDC, Apple, SAMSUNG and HUAWEI ranked top three of the global tablet Market in the
second quarter of 2018. Their shipments were 11.6 million, 5 million and 3.7 million seperately, with an
increase of 1% for Apple, a decrease of 13% for Samsung and an increase of 17% for Huawei compared
with the same period of last year. In terms of growth, HUAWEI is the only brand that has seen significant
growth, with all but Apple and Huawei falling.PC • According to Gartner, global PC shipments in 2017 totaled 262.5 million units, 2.8% lower than that in 2016. In the second quarter of 2018, the global PC market grew for the first time in six years. • Demand for business use is rising, while consumer market is still falling effected by smartphone. • Thinner and lighter, always online Wearable devices The shipments of wearable equipment reached 115 million units in 2017 with an increase of 10.3% compared with 2016, while the increase is lower than 27.3% from 2015 to 2016. The growth rate slowed down.
Intelligent Home • Intelligent home products include smart appliances, loudspeakers, door locks, lightening, smoke detectors, security cameras and so on. • It is estimated that the sales of smart home devices will exceed that of smartphone in 2023. Strategy Analytics points out that global consumers bought 663 million smart home devices in 2017, which will increase to 1.94 billion in 2023, while the sales of smartphones will be 1.86 billion by then.
Growth and forecast of global Intelligent home market
Growth and forecast of global Intelligent home market
30.0 1000
918
900
25.0 809
800
710
700
20.0 626
550 600
485
15.0 500
422
365 13.9 14.0
400
13.0 13.4 14.0 13.5
10.0 12.5
12.0 300
200
5.0
100
0.0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* *2020
Global market scale of the intelligent
全球智能家居市场规模（亿美元） Growth rate (%)
同比增长（%）
home (US $100 million)
Source: EE Times-China/ ESM-China/ED-China/Robotics Market ResearchScale of Chinese Intelligent home market in 2018
The smart home market in mainland China grew by 49.8% year-on-year in 2017, reaching
90.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the smart home market will grow by 46.9% in 2018,
exceeding 130 billion yuan.
Growth and forecast of Chinese Intelligent home market
100.0 3500
90.0 2942
3000
80.0
70.0 2500
60.0 1975
50.4 49.8 2000
46.9 48.1 49.0
50.0
36.7 39.5 40.9 1334 1500
40.0
30.0 908 1000
20.0
606
403 500
205 286
10.0
0.0 0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* *2020
Chinese market scale of the intelligent
中国智能家居市场规模（亿元RMB） Growth rate (%)
同比增长（%）
home (US $100 million)
Source: EE Times-China/ ESM-China/ED-China/Robotics Market ResearchMarket share of intelligent home products in China
Market share of smart home products in China（%）
30
27.7
24.7
25
19.7
20
15
11.9
10 8.9
5.9
5
0.9
0.2 0.1
0
CD
Source: China Industrial Information NetworkIntelligent door lock • More than 300 intelligent door lock enterprises • According to National Lock Industry Information Center, compared with 8 million sets in 2017, the number of order reached 8.3 million in the first half of 2018 and about 8 million of them were sold. • The application rate of smart door lock in China is only 5%, while those in Japan and Korea reached 80%-90% • The average price is around 2000 yuan. Intelligent loudspeaker • According to Canalys, more than 30 million smart loudspeakers were shipped in 2017, 25.8 million in the first half of 2018, and the number is estimated to be 56.3 million in 2018. • Global market: Amazon accounts for 50%, Google Home and Home Mini grow fast. • Chinese market: Tmall Genie accounted for 50%, Mi AI Mini grows fast. • There are about 50 to 100 manufacturers in China.
Sales growth of MCU
IC Insights: the shipment of MCU reached 22.4 billion pieces in 2016, and the sale was close to US
$16.6 billion. The global MCU market will peak in 2020 with sales amounting to US $20 billion 900
million, and 26.7 billion chips will be sold.
In the past two years, due to the shortage of 8-inch silicon wafer, the MCU delivery time is expanded,
which cause the demand grows and exceeds the supply.
Shipment growth of Bluetooth devices
Shipment of
Bluetooth devices
(billion)
The shipment of Bluetooth equipment reached
3.6 billion in 2017. It is expected to be 5.2
billion in 2022, and the compound annual
growth rate (CAGR) will be 12% from 2013 to
2022.
CAGR of 10 yearsAutomotive electronics
New energy vehicle
• According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the total production
and sales of Chinese new energy vehicles in 2017 were 794,000 and 777,000, respectively, with increase
of 53.8% and 53.3% year-on-year respectively. In 2017, the output of Chinese motor vehicle reached
29,015,400 with an increase of 3.19% over the same period last year, and the number of sold
amounted 28,878,900 with an increase of 3.04%. Sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 2.7%.
• According to EV Sales, more than 1,220,000 vehicles were sold in the 2017, 58% higher than that in
2016. The sales of electric vehicles accounted for more than 1% of global vehicle sales.
• Countries and times planning to impose a total ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, such as France's plan
to start a complete ban on petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040, Germany and India by 2030, Norway
and the Netherlands by 2025.
Charging point
Statistics show that the utilization rate of public charging points of electric vehicles in China is less than 15%
now. The number of charging points reached 450 thousand nationwide in 2017, an increase of 51% over the
same period last year. According to the "Development Guidelines of the Charging Infrastructure for Electric
Vehicle (2015-2020)" issued jointly by the four ministries and commissions, China will build more than 12,000
charging and replacing power station points and 4.8 million distributed charging points by 2020 to meet the
charging needs of 5 million electric vehicles.Vehicle electronics, the increasing consumption of electronic components
The use of new energy vehicles increased the consumption of automotive semiconductors.
In particular, the consumption of discrete components has increased several times.
Name Consumption of Consumption of pure Description
traditional vehicle electric vehicle
Automotive US $338 US $703 Doubled
semiconductors
Discrete components US $71 US $387 5 times
MLCC 3000 pieces 18000 pieces 6 times
Connector 500 800-1000 1.6-2 times
Source: EE Times-China/ ESM-China/ED-China/Robotics Market Research
Semiconductor manufacturers are also shifting their capacity to automotive electronics, such
as Infineon, a power device giant, and Murata, a global leader in MLCC. Murata expanded its
capacity in MLCC and its vehicle market revenue increased from 13% to 20%-30%.• 1. Global and Chinese semiconductor markets • 2. The situation of the various applications • 3. The technologies and challenges of components • 4. Summary
• Miniaturization and refinement The application of inductors, resistors and capacitors of passive components has entered the specification of 01005 (0.4mm*0.2mm). In the future, more MLCC will be used in 5G mobile phones and the proportion of ultra micro MLCC will keep increasing. It is estimated that the proportion of 0201 MLCC will reach 40% in 2018 with the dosage of 01005 specification ranking third. Pitch is narrowing down to 0.35mm, plate to plate connector • Integration and modularization Power modules and RF modules Providing integrated solutions to the downstream which is conducive for downstream to reducing the difficulty in design and adapting to a faster product cycle.
• Changes and match of production plans
For example, due to the shortage of passive components, the
manufacturers modified their production plans and reduced the usage.
Change specifications, redesign the PCB circuit
Reduced the dosage by one-third or even half
With the shortage of MLCC, whether
With the shortage of MLCC, any alternative or not increase MLCC orders
measure been taken?
12%
35%
53%
Change plans, reduce Search for other
更换方案，减少MLCC用量 寻找其他器件替换MLCC
components to replace Others
其他 No
the usage Yes
MLCC
Source: EE Times-China/ ESM-China/ED-China/Robotics Market ResearchSummary ●The application market is shifting from centralization to decentralization, from traditional to emerging. Traditional consumer electronics extend to intelligent hardware and intelligent home, while traditional cars evolved gradually into new energy vehicles. ●The facilitation of industrial upgrading, consumption upgrading and technology innovation Internet of things devices, WIFI components, Bluetooth, sensors, MCU, etc. ●The ripple effect of internal and external fluctuations in semiconductor industry The impact of upstream supply and demand on downstream manufacturing is dynamic Downstream demand Trade wars, tariffs, exchange rates
• The scale of semiconductor industry is expected to reach 530 billion dollars by 2020.
Emerging areas such as Internet of Things, intelligent manufacturing, artificial
intelligence, big data, smart medical care and smart vehicles will greatly promote the
development of domestic IC industry.
Thank you for listening!
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