Property Council of Australia's Residential Outlook 2021 - Nathan Dal Bon Chief Executive Officer
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Property Council of Australia's Residential Outlook 2021 Nathan Dal Bon Chief Executive Officer National Housing Finance and Investment Corporation
What we do
What we have achieved
First home buyers are on the rise
First home buyers as a proportion of total new lending
60% 20,000
50%
16,000
Proportion of total lending
Number of FHBs
40%
12,000
30%
8,000
20%
10% 4,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
FHBs as a proportion of total lending (LHS) Number of FHBs (RHS)Strong support for first home buyers
Government stimulus
Max. stimulus benefit value for FHB Level of assistance as a percentage of the
State
(up until 31 December 2020) average property value for a FHB
NT ~$88,000 19.0%
Government stimulus includes:
WA ~$82,000 18.6% • HomeBuilder
• First Home Owner’s Grant
TAS ~$64,000 16.7% • Other building bonus grants
• Stamp duty concessions
VIC ~$86,000 16.0%
• First Home Loan Deposit Scheme
NSW ~$85,000 13.5%
QLD ~$63,000 13.4%
SA ~$53,000 13.0%
ACT ~$63,000 11.2%First home buyers supported by FHLDS
Distribution of FHLDS places by state compared with population
40%
35% 35%
FHLDS FY2019-20 FHLDS FY2020-21 NHG FY2020-21 Population
32% 32%
30% 29%
26% 26% 26%
24%
24%
20% 20%
20%
15%
10%
10%
8%
7% 7%
5%
4% 3%
2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
0%
NSW QLD VIC WA SA ACT TAS NT
Source: NHFIC / ABSLargest population shock in a century COVID-19 will decrease Australia’s population growth
Is the city exodus real?
Less people moving from regions to the cities
Nationally, 25,500 fewer departures It’s a Melbourne story…
Thousand Thousand
Thousand Thousand
100 100
300 300
95 95
90 90
250 Capital city residents 250
85 Departures from Arrivals to 85
moving to regional areas Melbourne
Melbourne
80 80
75 75
200 200
70 70
25,500 fewer
Regional area residents moving to capital cities departures
65 65
150 150 60 60
Sept 02 Sept 08 Sept 14 Sept 20 Sept 02 Sept 08 Sept 14 Sept 20
ABS, Regional Internal Migration Estimates, Provisional, September 2020. ABS, Regional Internal Migration Estimates, Provisional, September 2020.
Source: Centre for PopulationNew supply expected to outstrip new demand (new household formation) for next two years.... State of the Nation’s Housing Source: CoreLogic
Rent falls have been uneven
(% change in rents March 2020 to January 2021)
Melbourne - Inner -11.2%
Sydney - City and Inner South -10.8%
Sydney - Eastern Suburbs -6.2%
Melbourne - Inner East -4.4%
Sydney - Inner West -3.8%
Riverina (Griffith) 4.50%
Coffs Harbour - Grafton 7.40%
Mid North Coast (Port Macquarie) 9.30%
South Australia - South East 9.6%
Perth 9.8%
Darwin 11.1%
Central Queensland 11.4%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
Source: CoreLogicWho’s benefiting from the rent falls?
Annual change in rent by price quartile – Dec 2019 – Dec 2020
0%
-1%
-2%
Annual change in rent
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
25th percentile 50th percentile 75th percentile
Price quartile
Sydney Melbourne
Source: CoreLogic
Source: CoreLogicWhere are the opportunities?
As economic stimulus tapers, what can sustain the momentum in the
property market?
CHP sector will play an important role
• Increased demand for affordable and social housing expected in the wake of COVID-19
• CHP sector resilient during pandemic, with little impact expected on development pipelines
• Developer and investor interest in partnering with CHPs increases during COVID
Investors
• We’ve seen increased interest in social bond investment States and territories
• Post COVID-19 social bonds have grown 800% globally • State/territory investment into social and
affordable housing, eg NSW ($900 million
• Our last three bonds have been oversubscribed.
additional; total $4.4 billion over four years),
Lenders Victoria ($5.4 billion over four years).
• Joint lending: Cbus, CHRP, state government stimulusYou can also read
