Re-Imagining Forced Migration Governance for 2030 - Robert Bosch ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
MAY 2019
Re-Imagining Forced
Migration Governance
for 2030
SAYID ABDULLAEV
THIAGO ASSUNÇÃO
CÉDRIC BISCHETTI
FRANSISCA CHRISTANTI
NAOKO HASHIMOTO
ASTHA KAPOOR
TZE-WEI NG
HELIDAH ‘DIDI’ OGUDE
ANGELA PILATH
ANNE HAMMERSTAD
Supported by GGF Partners
Table
of Contents
04 About the Program 30 Policy Project 3:
TogetherCorps
05 Introduction
33 Lessons Learned
07 Scenario 1: "Broken Telephone"
34 Methodology
15 S cenario 2: The Together
Framework 35 Fellows of the Global Migration and
Refugee Challenge Working Group
22 From Scenarios to Policy Projects
37 Acknowledgments
23 Policy Project 1:
City Capacity Index
27 Policy Project 2:
Media Literacy Initiative
1 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 2
ABOUT THE PROGRAM ABOUT THE PROGRAM
About
the Program
The Global Governance Futures program (GGF) Using strategic foresight instruments, including
brings together young professionals to look ahead scenario planning and risk assessment, the work-
10 years and think of ways to better address glo- ing groups produced scenarios for their respective
bal challenges. Building on a decade of successful issue areas. Based on their findings, the fellows put
rounds of the GGF program, GGF 2030 convened together a range of products that outline scenarios
27 fellows from Brazil, China, France, Germany, In- of potential global governance challenges of the
dia, Indonesia, Japan, South Africa, and the United coming decade and ways to address them.
States (three from each country). Over the course
of 2018 and 2019, the fellows participated in four In addition to learning about and implementing
dialogue sessions, which took place in Washington, the scenario planning methodology, our fellows
DC, New Delhi, São Paulo, and Paris and Berlin. met with leading policymakers and experts from
each participating country, whose insights helped
The GGF 2030 fellows – selected from the public, shape the scenarios.
private and non-profit sectors – formed three work-
ing groups, each focusing on one key global issue. The findings, interpretations and conclusions ex-
For this round, they focused on the futures of glo- pressed in this report are those of the authors and
bal order, the global migration and refugee chal- do not represent the views of the organizations they
lenge, and the role of cities in global governance. work for.
3 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 4
INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION
Introduction
(3) The international community will have an that this was unlikely to translate into a represen-
enforceable shared-responsibility arrangement. tative body of forced migrants within the United
In addition, while a team representing refugees Nations (UN).
competed in the last Olympics, the group believed
For the purpose of our scenario planning efforts, The aforementioned trends helped the group ar- What Can We Be Certain Of ?
we as a group defined our topic as “Re-Imagining rive at three guiding questions:
Forced Migration Governance for 2030,” within
the broader theme of the “Global Migration and FOCAL QUESTIONS
Refugee Challenge.” New technologies will play an important role in conflicts…” or “another version of the Global
›› Who will be the forced migrants up to and in 2030, finding innovative solutions for forced migrants. Compact will emerge claiming to address forced
We focused on forced migration including mixed and why will they be forced to move? However, we also noted that technologies have migration challenges” was changed to “another
migration flows. The term ‘forced migration’ cap- ›› Who will be the stakeholders and what will their the potential for harming this target group, for international process…”);
tures the various categories of mobility we thought roles and responsibilities be in co-shaping forced instance in terms of privacy and data protection.
are important, including refugees and other forms migration governance? The second question places 4. Degree of regional specificity (e.g., “forced
of forced migration (such as IDPs, climate-induced emphasis on potential responses and key actors. Further, the group thought it certain that if the migration will increase in Central Asia due to
displacement, and victims of trafficking). ›› What would effective and equitable forced migra- private sector was involved in forced migration radicalization”);
tion governance look like in 2030? The third ques- service provision, it will likely play a negative role.
Discussions within the group and with experts tion provided the opportunity to challenge the Critically, the group unanimously agreed that 5. Use of deterministic words like “lead” or
helped us identify key trends that are crucial to status quo of the current forced migration gover- cities will be key actors in the future and, as a con- “enforceable” (e.g., “Latin America will lead an
consider for the future of forced migration gover- nance structures and processes. sequence, the Westphalian system will have a de- innovative response to the forced migrant cri-
nance, such as: (1) environmental displacement; creased role. Finally, environmental issues will sis,” or “in 2030 the international community
(2) statelessness; (3) internally displaced persons; Ultimately, the group sought to develop innova- be a key factor in forced migration governance. will have an enforceable responsibility sharing
(4) the role of the private sector (positive as well as tive mechanisms to address the third question. arrangement”);
negative); and (5) the (positive or negative) role of Regarding assumptions with high variance, the
technology. Critically, one of the experts pointed It is important to include the terms “effective” and group arrived at some certainties deemed to be 6. Topics where some in the group have more
out that an important scenario to consider would “equitable” for the following reasons: effective be- especially crucial: (1) Existing multilateral organi information/knowledge than others (e.g.,
be what a functioning responsibility-sharing frame- cause the proposal should be pragmatic and im- zations working on forced migration will weaken. on the topic of environmental displacement;
work would look like. plementable, and equitable because the current (2) Sectarian conflict and Islamophobia will in- “a new UN body for environmental displacees
system is neither sustainable nor justifiable. crease. (3) An international process will emerge to will emerge”);
address forced migration challenges, thus ‘rein-
venting the wheel’. 7. Topics where some in the group are more
optimistic than others (e.g., “a representative
What Are the The group arrived at these certainties and uncer- body of all forced migrants will emerge within
tainties based on the following types of logic: the UN” was changed from “more migrants will
Key Uncertainties? have a seat at the table in forced migration go-
1. A causal relationship (e.g., “environmental vernance”);
displacement will increase statelessness”);
8. Issues where phrasing needed more speci-
Among the clearest is the uncertainty surround- International Organization for Migration (IOM) 2. Mitigation effect of technology (e.g., “sali- ficity (e.g., “more migrants will have a seat at
ing a one-state solution for the Palestinian situa- would merge by 2030. nation and desertification reduce livable land the table in forced migration governance”);
tion. The group further considered the continued and increase number of forced migrants”);
fragility of regional bodies. For example, the group The group highlighted the following assump- The group often disagreed on the future implica-
noted that it was uncertain that the European tions deemed to have high variance: (1) Actors in 3. Use of specific terms/concepts that have tions of certain themes, such as climate change
Union (EU) would still exist in 2030. Another proxy conflicts will take more responsibility for embedded meanings make our assumption (environmental displacement specifically), how
uncertainty is whether or not the United Nations forced migrants. (2) Youth voices and involvement too narrow (e.g., “proxy wars will lead to more conflict will evolve, and the role of technology in
High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and the will impact policymaking for forced migration. displacement of people” was changed to “proxy mitigating climate change, among others.
5 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 6
SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE” SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE”
Scenario 1:
This scenario explores how one local event can OVERALL CONTEXT
become a devastating global crisis, as misinfor-
mation amplifies problematic messages among ›› Increased digital access and low media literacy
digitally advanced communities who do not have across the world
“Broken
the capabilities to combat divisive content. This ›› Preconceived negative ideas about refugees
scenario is set in modern day South Asia, often ›› Growing Islamophobia and anti-immigrant sen-
called “the most dangerous place in the world.” 1 timents
›
›‘Fake news’ used for political gains in organized
The scenario begins with rumors of an incident. fashion, confirmation bias, echo chambers
Telephone”
These rumors snowball into a regional crisis with ›› No clear solutions for various actors to deal with
forced migrants at its core. The scenario explores ‘fake news’ (governments, private sector, etc.)
how vulnerable groups (e.g., refugees, religious
minorities, forced migrants) are impacted by NATIONAL CONTEXT (INDIA)
misinformation, and how there is little incentive
to solve a problem like this, as there are political ›› Hindu Nationalist party in power for five years
and economic gains to be made from the problem’s ›› Increased tensions between communities
exploitation. ›› Muslim communities especially vulnerable
The region has seen a more and more chauvinist REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL DYNA-
nationalist governments 2 come to power, which MICS
foster divisive politics. The region is home to three
nuclear powers (India, Pakistan and China) and ›› Historical tensions between Pakistan and India
UN-led regional effort
leads to some reduction has a long history of volatility. Any incident in ›› Three nuclear powers in region cause constant
in clashes and migration,
but situation worsens this region is considered a global issue. It has also geopolitical risks/fragility
Forced migrant crisis surp
after the effort fails
of Syrian crisis
asses that
seen a rise in the use of internet-enabled phones 3 ›› Porous borders
and increased access to information. Further, the
2019 2025 2027 2029
2021 2023
region is vulnerable to hate-mongering and has
already seen the impact of misinformation on
2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
communal relations, which has caused riots and
Unverified report of forced
Crisis simmers
displaced thousands. With low literacy and high
Unprecedented loss of
migrant from an ethnic
minority raping a pregnant
confidence in refuguee digital penetration as well as a lack of government
Ethnic minorities convention / existing refugee
woman in India continue to flee governance structure capabilities and political will, this region is primed
Government tries to control for the scenario.
wildfire rumours; temporary
internet shutdown
Government initiates
investigation; private sector Private sector pulls ou
because of worse t of India
takes measured to try to ned business
contain impact environment
With increased digital access, the impact of misinformation on forced migration is exacerbated.
1 Sidharth Bhatia, ‘The most dangerous place on Earth,’ September 5, 2000, The Globe and Mail, available at
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth/article769646/
2 Hartosh Singh Bal, May 30, 2018, ‘India’s Embattled Democracy,’ The New York Times, available at
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/30/opinion/india-democracy.html
3 FinanceX, December 16, 2018, ‘Southeast Asia Mobile Internet Usage Increasing Dramatically,’ Medium, available at
https://medium.com/financex/southeast-asia-mobile-internet-usage-increasing-dramatically-bb63266affb5
7 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 8
SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE” SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE”
Local Factors Misinformation Factors Regional/Global Factors Timeline
Incident of violence implicating a Unverified content
Muslim refugee (Rohingya)
2019 Alleged rape incident sparks riots
Riots (targeting Muslim refugees Organized spread with clear intents Pakistani government brings up Alleged rape incident; riots erupt with attacks against refugees and Muslim Indians; internally, government fails
and Indian Muslims); lack of (creating content); inadvertently persecution/Islamophobia in UN to respond to misinformation and resorts to internet shutdowns.
government capacity to manage spread by unknowing individuals
spread of misinformation and lack 2020 Refugee numbers at the India-Pakistan border reach 800,000
of incentive Large movements to the Pakistan border fuelled by rumours of open borders, while violence against Muslim
minorities and refugees continues: the total number of IDPs, asylum-seekers and refugees in the India-Pakistan
border region reaches 800,000. Meanwhile, ISIS make statements to encourage Jihadi violence in India. The
Number of IDPs/idle youth with no Government confirms incident on Gradual move of displaced peoples
information ‘Great-Firewall’ begins to take shape in India - censorship causes more rumors.
prospects grew (with some initial national TV to Pakistan border; ISIS makes
signs of possibility for radicalization public statement about support for
2021 Militarization of the India-Pakistan border
and links to Islamic support) persecuted Muslims
Independent Committee set up to investigate.
Political parties start to engage in Censorship (internet shutdown) Militarization (India and Pakistan) 2022 Pakistan appeals to UN, India steps up censorship
anti-immigrant and Islamophobic ‘cold war’ The Pakistani government appeals to the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) 3rd Committee to bring up
rhetoric the humanitarian crisis involving the displacement of, by now, two million Muslims. However, the international
community is hesitant to take sides because of the complex geopolitics and nuclear situation. Nevertheless, India –
feeling uncomfortable with the growing international accusations – decides to impose internet restrictions and
Government blames WhatsApp and IDPs/refugees spread information Humanitarian crisis along border
kick out foreign journalists. An independent committee/government report blames WhatsApp and Facebook for
foreign media about persecution/Pakistan declared by UNHCR; more people
ethnic clashes, leading to foreign companies beginning to withdraw from India.
opening its border; smugglers start smuggled and end up being
exploiting lack of information and trafficked upon arrival in
2022-2030 Crisis simmers
incite more cross-border movement destination country
The crisis simmers. The number of forced migrants keeps increasing at the border due to sporadic riots fueled by
misinformation that has still not been curbed. There is an economic crisis and loss of jobs as a result of foreign
Worsening environment for foreign Civil society tries to set up UN Security Council (with investment pulling out. Other Indian Muslims who managed to get out of the country start moving to Europe
investment; economic crisis; loss of mechanism to verify information Pakistan as non-permanent through Central and Western Asia to claim asylum. Meanwhile anti-Muslim and anti-migrant sentiments deepen
jobs but fails member) brings up issue; tensions around the world, with riots happening in many countries. Regional and international responses continue to fail
between countries’ ‘asylum being for lack of commitment.
abused’ vs. Muslim/Arab countries’
claims of Islamophobia (amidst 2028 Pakistani call for extraordinary UNSC session fails
concerns about nuclear war) Pakistan petitions for an extraordinary session at UNSC but fails to obtain support from other permanent members.
2029 Western states call on the UNGA to reopen refugee definition
No independent media and India learns from China and puts
Instead of addressing the anti-migration and Islamophobia wave, some Western countries within the UNSC decide
government propaganda increased; up a Great Firewall
to request the UN General Assembly to reopen the refugee definition in the 1951 Refugee Convention.
no information coming out of India
2030 Forced migrant numbers reach 10 million
Misinformation in the West claims Some countries start to threaten Countries threaten to denounce the Refugee Convention all together - meanwhile the crisis remains unsolved, by
that Muslim refugees are abusing pulling out from the Refugee now surpassing the ‘Syrian crisis’. Number of forced migrants reaches 10 million.
asylum systems; fears of Convention
radicalization; ISIS support;
illegitimate claims
9 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 10
SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE” SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE”
History of the Future
It is 2030, and misinformation has often been Hindu woman, and this news went viral within
deployed as a tool by various actors for personal hours on WhatsApp, Facebook and other social
and political gains and was further inadvertently media platforms. Local government received the
spread by unknowing individuals. There was no news, but struggled to verify this information,
clear and sustainable response to deal with the failing to locate the so-called eyewitness. Some
problem as it was unclear who was responsible or political factions within the government also
accountable. There was neither means nor, in some stood to benefit from tensions between communi-
cases, incentives for governments or technology ties to justify implementation of draconian laws,
platforms to address the issue. since it was easy to polarize the debate and keep
power. A government official mentioned this mis-
In India, as in other parts of the world, the prob- information as fact on national television. Fol-
lem of misinformation was also exacerbated by lowing this, riots broke out in the province in
the environment on the ground. Islamophobia which the alleged attack happened. Initially tar-
and anti-immigrant sentiments were common. geting only the Rohingya minority group, rioters
Concerns were twofold: firstly, fears that the quickly began to target broader minority groups –
40,000 Muslim Rohingya refugees coming in Muslims – forcing large groups of people to be
from Myanmar would make parts of India unsafe internally displaced within days. Because of the Wagah border checkpoint at the India-Pakistan border. Source: Wikimedia Commons
and secondly, the suspicion that the numbers national news announcement, protests started in
were much higher than reported. other states too, which quickly turned into angry
riots targeting Muslim minority neighborhoods.
This narrative was reinforced by local political
functionaries who played a part in furthering To deal with growing violence against minorities, Between 2021 and 2022, Pakistan tried to con- condemning India too harshly. They trod care-
communal chasms in society. Both social and local governments shut down the internet for demn India internationally, finding allies in Saudi fully, wary of the complex geopolitical situation
traditional media were polarized, and did not short periods in pockets of the country. Rather Arabia and other Muslim majority countries. It in the region, and also partly out of concern with
serve as a reliable source of information but as an than quieting the riots, the information blackout also announced that it would provide temporary the growing anti-immigrant sentiments back in
echo chamber, confirming existing biases and fur- led to more spread of misinformation. WhatsApp asylum for those Indian Muslims with kin in Paki- Europe. Both the US and China were ambivalent
ther embedding inflammatory sentiments. Mis- also introduced a new feature limiting the number stan. However, within months, tens of thousands and only made weak statements of concern. China,
information further deepened the existing fault of forwards that could be made, to little effect. had set up camp at the India-Pakistan border, and an ally of Pakistan which had been criticized for
lines in the region: the historical relationship Within Muslim communities, news of lynching Pakistan was unable to take them in. These people its handling of Uighurs within its own border, 4
between India and Pakistan, the growing in- and that villages were being burnt down began to became internally displaced persons (IDPs), and was not vociferous in condemning India. The US,
fluence of China in the region, and the presence spread, causing more panic and displacement. At since India is not a signatory to the UN Geneva Con- wary of the nuclear rivals India and Pakistan and
of three nuclear powers made this region partic- around the same time, news also spread that vention, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees because of Pakistan’s importance in the war in
ularly volatile. Pakistan was criticizing India internationally (UNHCR) was not able to respond on the ground Afghanistan 5, was also cautious.
and the former had opened its border to welcome effectively. A humanitarian crisis built up and
In 2019, someone claimed to have witnessed a male persecuted Indian Muslims. Within months, and Pakistan and India began militarizing the border. At the same time, Muslim extremist groups, such
forced migrant from a religious minority raping a by 2020, hundreds and thousands flocked to the as the Taliban and ISIS, started to issue threats
woman. The ‘witness’ shared this information on Pakistan-India border. By 2022, global powers – such as Western Euro- against Indian nationals around the world, de-
social media with a blurry photo taken from afar. pean nations, the US, China, and Russia – began to claring the situation another example of global
The information quickly grew into an accusation comment on the situation, calling for the Indian Islamophobia and Muslims being mistreated in
that a Rohingya refugee man raped a pregnant government to halt the violence, but refrained from various contexts.
4 Roland Hughes, November 8, 2018, ‘China Uighurs: All you need to know on Muslim 'crackdown',’ BBC News, available at
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-45474279
5 Bruce Riedel, May 20, 2010, ‘Pakistan’s Role in the Afghanistan War’s Outcome,’ Brookings, available at
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/pakistans-role-in-the-afghanistan-wars-outcome/
11 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 12
SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE” SCENARIO 1: “BROKEN TELEPHONE”
Between 2022 and 2028, the mass arrival of Mus- preventive actions, no effective policies or joint
lims at the border provided continued fuel to the effort resulted. Due to continued misinformation
anti-Muslim discourse inside India, claiming by smugglers (who claim that the Pakistani
“Indian Muslims were always Pakistani.” Riots government is allowing all forced migrants entry
continued. The Indian government, at local, state into Pakistan), more forced migrants moved
and national level, failed to find the right response. towards the Pakistani border. Meanwhile vulner-
They set up a committee to investigate the rea- able migrants were exposed to the risk of smug-
sons for the violence, and rather than getting to gling and trafficking upon arrival in Pakistan.
the bottom of the initial incident, blamed instant
messenger platforms like WhatsApp and Face- By 2027, it was clear that the Pakistani govern-
book for spreading misinformation. The interna- ment was struggling to deal with the humani
tional social media platforms, having been made tarian needs of the displaced population. At the
a scapegoat and faced with heavy censorship and same time, internally displaced Muslims within
internet blockades, and seeing how the riots con- India who were denied access to Pakistan were
tinued with the government failing to respond, stranded at the India-Pakistan border in pre-
decided to withdraw their operations from the carious conditions. Due to lack of Indian human-
country. Seeing the continued worsening busi- itarian support their situation became even more
ness environment and instability, other multina- dire. Meanwhile, UNHCR was unable to provide
tional companies also started pulling out. Strugg- sufficient support to the displaced on either side
ling with continued criticisms internationally, the of the border due to lack of funding as well as the
Indian Government increased censorship, and lack of legal framework. As the humanitarian
eventually decided to impose a Great Firewall, situation in the border region worsened, Muslim In solidarity with persecuted Indian Muslims, Muslim communities around the world mobilized to
limiting the use of international social media and forced migrants began to move outside the region advocate for them (e.g., by holding protests). Source: Wikimedia Commons
Google altogether. They also started kicking out and especially towards the Middle East and west-
foreign journalists and NGOs. The withdrawal of ern nations in 2028. Rumors emerged that radi-
international investments along with political calization was taking place among the forced
turbulence caused the economy to suffer, leading migrants. ISIS started claiming responsibility
to job losses, and further unrest. for sporadic terrorist attacks self-proclaimed to By 2030, the total number of IDPs inside India, or alleging that Muslim forced migrants were
be in the name of displaced Indian Muslims. refugees in Pakistan, and asylum seekers reach- abusing the institution of asylum and that many
In 2025, Pakistan continued to petition the UN ing countries beyond the immediate neighboring among them were radicalized. In this context,
General Assembly for an international fact-find- Within the context of increasing anti-immigrant region has reached 10 million. these UNSC members have suggested that the
ing mission to understand who the targets and per- sentiment and Islamophobia, stark and opposing Third Committee of General Assembly establish
petrators of the violence are, but was not success-views about forced migrants and forced migra- Due to the continued targeting of Muslim groups a working group to reconsider the definition of
ful in getting a consensus. It was now very hard totion intensified within Indian society and coun- within India and the humanitarian crisis, which a ‘refugee’ within the Refugee Convention (to
get accurate news from within India. Citizen jour- tries with sizeable Muslim communities. Both had now lasted for several years, the government further limit access to asylum for Muslim popu-
nalists tried to do guerilla reporting, but many traditional and social media discourse across the of Pakistan as a non-permanent member of the lations). They have threatened that unless the
were warned against doing so and some were ar- globe conflated forced migrants with all Muslim UN Security Council recommended an extraor- definition is reconsidered and narrowed down,
rested. Internationally, a civil society consortium,
communities – despite the fact that not all forced dinary meeting on the situation on the Paki- they will abandon the Refugee Convention alto-
working with Indian citizen journalists, tried to migrants are Muslims and not all Muslims are stan-India border. They considered the current gether. With growing skepticism over the effec-
launch a fact-checking platform, but by this time forced migrants. In solidarity with persecuted situation a manifestation of Islamophobia and tiveness of the current refugee governance
it was hard to make sure that news reached either Indian Muslims, Muslim communities around xenophobia. However, potential destination regime (e.g., failed calls for those displaced
the Indian majority or the Muslim minority the world mobilized to advocate for them (e.g., by countries in the UNSC (such as the US, France, by climate change to be recognized as refugees),
groups within India. holding protests). There was a global deepening and the UK) voiced opposition to any initiatives the future of the current system, i.e., UNHCR
of the pro-Muslim/anti-Muslim divide around the to support the forced migrants, claiming either and the Refugee Conventions, faces unprece-
In late 2026, a regional conference was convened world, and sporadic clashes happened in different that they lack further capacity to provide asylum, dented threat.
by UNHCR in which major Western European countries. There were continued attempts to verify
nations, China, Russia, the US, the ASEAN coun- information about events in India and Pakistan to
tries, and some civil society actors participated. clarify misinformation (e.g., by civil society actors),
Although the conference produced a call for the but they failed.
end of violence and a communiqué suggesting
13 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 14SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK
Scenario 2:
responsibility especially with regard to human- ›› Forced migration will continue to spread glob-
itarian and development actors working closely ally over the next decade, gaining in traction and
together12 – and several major hosting coun- variety. Without involving other actors in de-
tries signing up to the Comprehensive Refu- veloping a clear plan for shared responsibility,
The Together
gee Response Framework (CRRF).13 states’ commitments to protect the rights of
forced migrants will continue to weaken.
However, the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis has shown ›› A new international platform of shared respon-
that neighboring and proximate countries like sibility for the forced migration challenge will
Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, can not share the be initiated by forced migrants themselves.
Framework
responsibility alone given the high costs on ›› In 2030, cities, the private sector and social
services, infrastructure and social cohesion. entrepreneurs will become the main partners
Rather, other member states and actors should in supporting a new platform of shared respon-
share in the responsibility along with them. There- sibility. This platform will clearly outline cities’
fore, Scenario 2 offers a distinct possible answer and the private sector’s commitments on ad-
to the question of who will be leading and devel- dressing the forced migration challenge at the
oping the model of shared responsibility in 2030 local level.
and how these new actors will play an essential ›› The effectiveness of this new platform of
A NEW PLATFORM OF SHARED RESPON- 1. The 1951 Refugee Convention, which asserts role in re-imagining forced migration governance. shared responsibility will be rooted in partici-
SIBILITY FOR THE CHALLENGES OF that a refugee should not be returned to a coun- pating actors and practicality of the outlined
FORCED MIGRATION try where they face serious threats to their life Specifically, Scenario 2 puts forward the follow- commitments.
or freedom. This is considered a rule of cus- ing insights:
According to the United Nations, today we are tomary international law. 9
witnessing an unprecedented level of forced
human mobility. Globally, approximately 68.5 2. The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Develop-
million people have been forcibly displaced from ment, agreed in 2015, which recognizes the
Cross-sectoral
their homes. 6 This total number of forced positive contribution made by migrants for in- hackathon results in
migrants includes more than 25.4 million refu- clusive growth and sustainable development.10 Together Framwork
& pilot begins
Populist leaders UN endorses new
Global Compact of push back global governance
gees, three million asylum seekers, 10 million Refugees adopted against Together model of responsibility
stateless people, and over 40 million people who 3. The 2016 New York Declaration, which in- by states despite Framework based on Together
worldwide rise of implementation Framework
are estimated to be living in internal displace- cludes commitments both to address the
populism World Forum of City
Networks on Forced
ment.7 In fact, UNHCR concludes that about issues we face now and to prepare the world for Migration lobby
every two seconds a person is forcibly displaced. 8 future challenges. The global declaration high- for the Together
Framework
lights the commitment to protecting the rights 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
To protect forced migrants and further streng- of women and girls and promoting their full,
then global governance on forced migration, equal and meaningful participation in finding 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
throughout the years, world leaders and global solutions.11 It also led to the adoption of the By 2029, 200 cities
institutions have adopted multiple declarations, Global Compact on Refugees in 2018 – which use the Together
Framework &
including: recognizes the need for a model of shared implement city passes
6 UNHCR, 2018, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2017, UNHCR, available at n
tatio
men r
https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/5b27be547/unhcr-global-trends-2017.html ry funding is imple Togethe -
s milita ey e
Sydn der of th r the As
ia
US pull s
7 UNHCR, 2018, Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2017, UNHCR, available at to Kurd lea work fo ion Local refe
e e g rendums
https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/statistics/unhcrstats/5b27be547/unhcr-global-trends-2017.html. Fram Pacific R Together
Cities and on the
cr
the city pa eation of
ss
8 UNHCR – Genève, June 19, 2018, ‘Forced displacement above 68m in 2017, new global deal on refugees critical’, UNHCR,
available at https://www.unhcr.org/neu/18812-forced-displacement-68m-2017-new-global-deal-refugees-critical.html
9 UNHCR, 2019, ‘The UN Refugee Convention,’ available at https://www.unhcr.org/1951-refugee-convention.html
10 United Nations, n.d., ‘Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,’ 12 United Nations, 2018, ‘Global Compact on Refugees,’ available at https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/refugees-compact
available at https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld
13 UNHCR, 2019, ‘Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework,’ available at https://www.unhcr.org/comprehensive-refugee-response-
11 United Nations, 2016, ‘New York Declaration,’ available at https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/declaration framework-crrf.html
15 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 16SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK
Due to the positive impact of civil society cam In 2020, Donald Trump was re-elected as US
History of the Future paigns geared towards raising awareness for the President. In February 2018, the Pentagon had
need to include forced migrant voices when requested $550 million for border security and
developing solutions for their protection and ‘train and equip activities’ in Syria. The Turkish
integration, as well as early successes of the media mistakenly assumed that all of the fund-
It is 2030, and with the global rise of populist Framework, also known simply as Together. The Together Framework, a growing number of polit- ing was allocated to the Kurdish YPG militia in
governments and anti-immigrant movements, platform brings together interested parties which ical leaders took a strong public stance in support northern Syria. In 2020, after being re-elected
forced migrants are feeling ever more marginal- are eager to explore innovative integration mech- of this call. In addition, given the lack of coordi- and under pressure to fulfill election promises,
ized in their host communities. Given the avail- anisms and possibilities of fostering collaboration nation and coherence among the different actors President Trump pulled military funding from
ability of technology, particularly in Western at the local level in order to ease rising tensions working in forced migration governance, recog- the Kurdish YPG militia. With the unexpected
European states, forced migrants are mobilizing between host communities and forced migrants. nition of the need for a new framework/initiative lack of funding, the militia was left vulnerable,
to address injustices against them. led by forced migrants themselves grew. In light leaving the Kurdish population unprotected.
The platform was initiated in a Western Euro- of these developments, forced migrants sought to
In late 2022, frustrated by the lack of a global pean city with a large presence of forced migrants increase their agency through the Together By 2021, as Together began to pilot its innovative
response and bureaucracy to address the forced where citizens are relatively supportive of forced Framework to help them become advocates of cross-sector approach, participants demanded
migration challenge, a global private company migrants’ integration. This city also has key their own stories. In 2020, the Together Frame- that governments provide a new legal framework
(such as Google) was approached by a group of supporters in the private sector, access to inter- work sought to act as an umbrella platform to allowing forced migrants to travel to partici
forced migrants, championed by a delegation of national organizations, and an overall innovative bring together and create synergies among rele- pating cities and have the right to work there.
Syrian refugees, to help make forced migrants’ ecosystem. vant actors, and spread the use of the platform in City IDs began to function as a legal document
voices heard. As a result, a cross-sectorial incuba- other cities. to confer the right to work in Together Cities.
tor of ideas or hackathon was organized by and The participants of the hackathon set up Together
for refugees and other forced migrants in a West- as cross-sectoral framework that outlines clear
ern European city, to brainstorm refugee-led commitments for each participating party as
solutions to address ever growing migration chal- well as their incentives to join.
lenges. A platform was created, titled the Together
Actor Incentive to Join the Together Framework Commitments Necessary
Forced • Once engaged with the Together Framework, staying tuned to participate
Migrants • Availability of a useful platform for better integration and full providing useful information and feedback, and helping new users.
protection rights • Respect local legislation
• Feeling part of a collective initiative in which migrants are finally • Ensure that the Together Framework reflects the needs of forced migrants
heard and aids their agency and integration in host communities
• Provide legitimacy to the project as a highly innovative forced mi-
grant-driven initiative
City
Government • Avoiding social disruption in the city, fostering greater social • Provide funding for social entrepreneurs to create integration programs for
coherence/unity forced migrants (for example languages classes, intercultural festivals, or
• Education of the general public about refugee status to fight cultural clubs)
stereotyping • Provide local IDs to forced migrants conferring the right to work
• Economic growth (integrated migrants help grow local economy) • Provide shelter, housing, nutrition, and health assistance
Private Sector • Tax cuts (through the corporate social responsibility framework to
include employing refugees/forced migrants) • Provide work opportunities for forced migrants
• Brand recognition • Match city funding (where necessary)
• Revenue growth (higher demand for products due to newly
arrived people)
Social • Developing new innovations/interventions that serve to bridge
Entrepreneurs the gap where government fails to provide necessary services to
• Organize intercultural events to bring together host communities and In 2020, Donald Trump was re-elected as US president. Source: Wikimedia Commons
forced migrants
forced migration.
• Supporting forced migrants and host communities to get to know each
• Passion for social justice
other and build a culture of empathy, which is important for a the two-
• Multi-sectoral nature of the Initiative provides opportunity way integration process
structures to build consensus among actors thereby accelerating
• Work on media literacy campaigns as part of the integration process
previously time consuming bureaucratic procedures
17 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 18SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK
Additionally, Together involved tax incentives for Indonesia, the Australian government supported
companies in those cities to hire forced migrants. the transit of a small number of refugees to be
resettled in Sydney. This proved the adaptability of
Based on the pilot, participating actors created the Together Framework to address diverse global
the Together Toolkit for other cities to share migration challenges.
skills, knowledge and how-tos on welcoming
forced newcomers. The technology-based toolkit Although the platform started to spread, in 2025
provides stakeholders with guidance on develop- populist leaders and parties in different countries
ing an implementation strategy to invite other criticized it as a globalist initiative that threatens
cities/stakeholders to join the framework and to state sovereignty. Nevertheless, cities continued
adopt and adapt it to their needs. to adopt the Together Framework, supported by
progressive city government administrations.
In 2022, during the pilot project, the UN unsuc-
cessfully sought to address the root causes of Between 2025 and 2026, in light of diverse global
failed integration approaches around the world. migration challenges, the Together Framework
As a result, the US pulled its funding from UNHCR, offered a highly adaptable solution. As a result, by
the International Organization for Migration 2026, the Framework had been replicated in an
(IOM), and the International Labour Organiza- additional 20 capitals in both the Global North
tion (ILO). In light of the resulting global migra- and South, creating a powerful city network for
tion governance funding crisis, states started to forced migration governance.
consider unconventional approaches such as the
Together Framework to bridge the protection gap. In the years after the US pulled military funding
to the Kurdish militia in Syria, there was a sharp
The strength of the Together Framework is rooted rise in persecution against Kurds in neighboring
in its replicability: it is a model that can be easily Turkey. By 2026, this had reached an unprece- Millions of forced migrants began to make their way to Europe. Most European states tried to block
adopted in other cities. After seeing positive dented level, causing tens of thousands of Kurds their entrance. Source: Wikimedia Commons
results from the first city to adopt the Together to flee towards Europe.
Framework, between 2022 and 2023, five more
cities adopted it and used its how-tos to address In addition to the preexisting border challenges, In light of the Turkish refugee crisis, European increase awareness and the sensitization of the
diverse forced migration challenges at the local and the millions of forced migrants held in camps states once again (as during the 2015 Syrian refu- host population towards the rights and needs of
level. These cities included Kampala, São Paolo, in Turkey, forced migration continued to increase gee crisis14) were unable to find a common solution forced migrants. Problematically, with the grow-
New Delhi, Mexico City, and Strasbourg. worldwide. The incapacity of national govern- or agree on a mechanism to successfully share the ing prominence of the network of Together Ci-
ments to deal with these challenges became ever burden and responsibilities of refugee protection. ties, participating cities attracted more forced
With growing environmental stressors, the Asia- more evident. Turkey could no longer host As a result, from 2026 to 2027, the humanitarian mig rants than non-participating European cities.
Pacific region was in search of new actors to help another mass influx of forced migrants in addi- crisis at the border continued. The Together Frame- To counteract this new form of unequal burden-
govern the issue of environmental displacement. tion to its millions of protracted refugees. In work started to mobilize actors to fill the vacuum, sharing, a City Capacity Index was created (see
Indonesia, particularly hit by natural disasters 2026, tens of thousands of Kurds fled Turkey for including translators, medical staff, lawyers, so- policy project 1) to map cities’ ability to efficiently
and struggling as a transit country, requested help Europe. Turkey forwent its agreement with cial workers, and shelter providers. host people.
from its neighbors for durable solutions to protect Germany and other EU member states to serve as
Afghani, Somali, and Sudanese refugees post-nat- a primary host country and opened its borders. Fighting back against the rise of xenophobia, In 2027, to combat the escalating humanitarian
ural disaster. In 2024, Sydney was the first city in Millions of forced migrants began to make their more cities turned to replicating the Together crisis at the closed borders, several Together Cities
the Asia-Pacific region to adopt and replicate the way to Europe. Most European states tried to Framework to become part of the city network. held referendums on whether or not to welcome
Together Framework to reduce the pressure on block their entrance. The city network helped address problems of refugees. Despite overall anti-migrant tendencies
Indonesia. To honor bilateral agreements with xenophobia and racism by disseminating infor- in the countries as a whole, their cities overwhelm-
mation more efficiently to the host community to ingly voted in favor of hosting refugees.
14 Simon Tisdall, February 10, 2018, ‘The epic failure of our age: how the west let down Syria,’ The Guardian, available at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/epic-failure-of-our-age-how-west-failed-syria
19 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 20SCENARIO 2: THE TOGETHER FRAMEWORK FROM SCENARIOS TO POLICY PROJECTS
From Scenarios
In order to avoid public uprisings, national govern- In 2028, members of the Together Framework
ments issued a limited permit in the form of a City hosted the first World Forum of City Networks
Pass that allows travel to and residence in the on Forced Migration, at which they started the
respective Together Cities that voted to welcome process of lobbying states at the UN to consider
to Policy Projects
refugees. the Together Framework as a viable solution to
address significant gaps in global migration
Since this time, to enter a Together City, refugees governance. This forum was held in partnership
have had to enter into an agreement with the with the Council of Europe and the main regional
welcoming city to deliver on the following commit- institutions gathering the official stakeholders in
ments, within a reasonable time frame: Forced Migration Governance. In 2030, 200
cities around the world have adopted the Together
1. Willingness to learn the language; Framework. Due to the success of the Together
Framework and the strength of the 200 cities Scenarios are used to make possible future devel-
2. Gender equality in public spaces and work- who have employed it, UN member states have opments imaginable and to define the plausible
places; moved to officially recognize the Framework as range of what could happen. Re-imagining forced
an effective new global public policy. The UN migration governance for 2030 was not an end in
3. L
ocal involvement in civil society (e.g. volun- General Assembly adopted a resolution to itself. Our ultimate aim was to create concrete
teering work). develop a new global governance scheme of policy projects to prepare for the future by avoid-
shared responsibility to manage the forced ing or mitigating future threats and working
The measurable effectiveness of the Together migrations challenge. This new scheme aims to towards realizing opportunities that are not yet
Framework has been tested and proven by its overcome the constraints of state sovereignty, clearly visible. Our policy projects are ideas on
rapid response to the Turkish-EU forced migra- emphasizing the collective commitment to how to make policy intervention happen by identi-
tion crisis. Throughout 2027 and 2028, The concede more authority to local actors, and to fying, among other things, key sponsors, partners,
Framework successfully debunked predominant provide incentives for social entrepreneurs and resources, and creating the political mobilization
refugee myths and demonstrated particularly the private sector to provide solutions. to make change happen.
the economic benefits of hosting forced migrants
at the local level.
21 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 22POLICY PROJECT 1: CITY CAPACITY INDEX POLICY PROJECT 1: CITY CAPACITY INDEX
Policy Project 1:
The CCI is underpinned by the notion of ‘area- Cities will meet periodically to review and improve
based’ interventions/investments (i.e., interven- their score on the index. Cities facing similar chal-
tions that focus on the challenges in a locality lenges can exchange best practices, such as for
and do not discriminate based on the popula- public resources allocation, external funding
City Capacity
tion’s origin). This, in turn, builds the capacity of opportunities, investment attraction, and interna-
cities to provide services for both newcomers and tional technical cooperation, either in the field of
locals and enhances social cohesion. humanitarian aid or international development.
Index Outcome and Value
Proposition
The CCI will empower cities to: Further, the CCI will create and institutionalize
The City Capacity Index (CCI) is a key tool that of the Global South that have already expressed a network of researchers and practitioners
aims to measure the capacities of urban centres the political will to host newcomers,15 in the ›› Comprehensively (i.e., across various sectors) focused on addressing the challenges and oppor-
to receive forced migrants in a materially and context of the failure of nation-states to share the determine their capacity to host newcomers in tunities of hosting newcomers, with particular
socially sustainable manner. It focuses on cities, responsibility of newcomers. the short and long-term; emphasis on how to ensure replication beyond
with emphasis on developing countries/countries ›› Effectively match newcomers to the needs of the the initial 10 pilot cities. Critically, the benefi-
city (e.g., newcomers meet the labor market ciaries will not only be the cities, citizens and
needs of the city); newcomers, but also the researchers and practi-
›› Identify their investment needs in terms of ser- tioners working across these cities. Researchers
Intervention vices, infrastructure, conflict resolution mech- will have an opportunity to see their work devel-
anisms, etc., that benefit both locals and new- oped into practical, implementable interventions,
comers. while practitioners will see their on-the-ground
experience incorporated into interventions.
The intervention aims to ensure that cities that The index will also provide a narrative on the
have already expressed the political will to host specific forced migration context of the cities
newcomers, like Kampala in Uganda, are (e.g., its history of receiving newcomers and the
well-prepared to sustainably host them for the number of existing newcomers). The mapping of Sponsors and Partners
long-term. A think-and-do tank made up of the local demands and the city’s capacities made
multi-disciplinary researchers and practitioners possible by the CCI will allow the arrival of
will develop a set of criteria that assesses the forced migrants to be treated also as a local
capacity of a city to host newcomers (e.g., its health development opportunity, instead of always as a The CCI will be hosted within an independent, partners will be created to strengthen and cham-
care, education, and housing systems, social ‘burden.’ This is the case because the CCI will be multidisciplinary think-and-do tank. Even though pion the initiative. To build the CCI, the think-
cohesion, and employment opportunities) – the able to collect data and monitor the real impacts this working group owns the Index, various and-do tank will partner with several stake-
outcome of which is the City Capacity Index of the presence of forced migrants, unveiling stakeholders will co-build/create and partici- holders to ensure that the index is usable, and
(CCI). The CCI will reflect real-time core indica- through applied research the varying effects of pate in the process of its development. adaptable. The main partners will be city author-
tors (e.g. levels of clean water and sanitation receiving newcomers for the local economy and ities and governments, urban networks and asso-
provision) that have applicability across cities, society. It will finally foster the territorial resil- Some of the major key stakeholders will be inter- ciations, urban service providers, social entre-
but also includes a set of variable factors that ience of the cities, analyzed through the indica- national institutions such as IOM, UNHCR, preneurs, civil society organizations, forced
reflect the specificity of each city (e.g., high levels tions of weaknesses and strengths in cases of World Bank Group, the Council of Europe, the migrant associations, and citizens. These part-
of air pollution in New Delhi). crisis the index gives. African Union, the Association of Southeast ners will work with the CCI team to provide data,
Asian Nation (ASEAN), the South Asian Associa- assist in research, and influence the intellectual
tion for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and the and ethical orientation of the CCI.
15 Sulaiman Momodu, 2018, ‘Uganda stands out in refugees hospitality,’ African Renewal December 2018 – March 2019, available at
European Union. Beyond financing, a board of
https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/uganda-stands-out-refugees-hospitality
23 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 24POLICY PROJECT 1: CITY CAPACITY INDEX POLICY PROJECT 1: CITY CAPACITY INDEX
Resources Activities
To embark upon this project, an initial funding Beyond funding, a multidisciplinary core team of To develop the CCI, the core team will conduct between the core team and the key stakeholders.
of $1 million is required. This funding will be five or six people will be required for two years to on-the-ground research, including study visits to The index will be designed to be alive and dynamic,
used over two years and will cover the pilot in 10 plan, research and develop the CCI for the pilot. the 10 focus cities to understand the context of and can be updated regularly by those involved
cities. To raise this initial grant, the think- The think-and-do tank will also provide an advi- forced migration in each. The qualitative and in the process. This would make the index rele-
and-do tank will approach governments for sory board of experts to guide the core team. This quantitative research will focus on historical vant and timely and will allow for it to be updated
public subsidies and support at both federal and board would include representatives of the city, trajectories, responses, needs, legislative and relatively cheaply. A draft of the index will be
city level, private foundations interested in academics, and forced migrant representatives, social frameworks, and secondary data collec- presented at a conference involving the teams
forced migrant issues, and other interest groups. for instance. The core team will also rely on local tion to develop the methodology to build the CCI. across 10 cities. This conference will not only
Support will also be sought from multilateral universities for volunteers and strategic direc- The methodology will be built on an open-source help to chisel the index but also promote the
organizations, if necessary. tion and guidance. platform so that it can be a collaborative exercise concept, to bring in more cities into the fore.
Mobilization Outputs
To attract a diverse set of partners and investors, initiate meetings with key stakeholders and part- The output is a first of its kind, real-time Cities and/or articles will be produced. An open-source
the think-and-do tank will constitute a strong, ners with the aim of securing letters of support, Capacity Index, comprising accurate criteria to platform to spread CCI’s news will enable greater
skilled, committed, diverse team and will draw endorsements and pledge funds. After the team analyze and replicate in various cultural contexts. visibility through the community of cities and
on existing networks across cities and multi- is composed and funds and support has been The criteria will be updated regularly, to keep the more impact thanks to online collective intelli-
ple-stakeholders. A preliminary pitch will be secured, the CCI core team will deploy sub-teams ranking reflective of actual capacities. Also, in gence. Finally, the methodological process to
developed to both coordinate working with the across the ten cities chosen for the pilot. order to promote the results of our study visits conduct this research will result in a report that
cities ahead of the pilot and once the pilot period and researches, audiovisual and redactional will be useful for future researchers within our
is completed. The core team will develop a bench- The team will work with cities, and will work content such as podcasts, video documentaries growing cross-sectoral network.
mark analysis in order to find the most relevant horizontally to conduct solutions-oriented
and interesting case studies (10 complex, varied, research, and ensure that the values of the open-
and politically willing cities around the world, source movement are reflected across aspects.
with an emphasis on the Global South/develop- Further, the ownership of the CCI will be within
ing countries). Building on the profile of the core the think-and-do tank, but regular check-ins will
team of the tank as well existing networks, the be made with think-tanks across the world to
team will then design an attractive pitch that solicit feedback and generate buy-in.
includes accurate and updated data and facts and
25 RE-IMAGINING FORCED MIGR ATION GOVERNANCE FOR 2030 GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FUTURES 2030 26You can also read
