Results 2018 - CCPI Climate Change Performance Index
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Climate Change
CCPI Performance
Index
Results 2018
Jan Burck, Franziska Marten, Christoph Bals, Niklas Höhne
Foto: Fotolia, Nightman 1965
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Imprint
Germanwatch – Bonn Office
Kaiserstraße 201
D-53113 Bonn, Germany
Ph.: +49 (0) 228 - 60492-0
Fax: +49 (0) 228 - 60492-19
Germanwatch – Berlin Office
Stresemannstraße 72
D-10963 Berlin, Germany
Ph.: +49 (0) 30 - 28 88 356-0
Fax: +49 (0) 30 - 28 88 356-1
E-mail: info@germanwatch.org
www.germanwatch.org
CAN
Climate Action Network International
Rmayl, Nahr Street,
Jaara Building, 4th floor
P.O.Box: 14-5472,
Beirut, Lebanon
Phone: +961.1.447192
NewClimate Institute
Cologne Office
Am Hof 20-26
50667 Cologne, Germany
Berlin Office
Brunnenstr 195
10119 Berlin, Germany
Authors:
Jan Burck, Franziska Marten,
Contents
Christoph Bals, Niklas Höhne,
Carolin Frisch, Niklas Clement,
Kao Szu-Chi
With support of:
Pieter van Breenvoort, Mia Moisio
Foreword3
Editing: 1. Key Country Results 4
Daniela Baum, Gerold Kier, Lindsay Munro
2. Key Developments 8
Maps:
Carolin Frisch
3. About the CCPI 8
Design:
Dietmar Putscher 4. Overall Results CCPI 2018 10
November 2017 4.1 Partial Results – GHG Emissions 12
4.2 Partial Results – Renewable Energy 14
Purchase Order Number: 18-2-03e
4.3 Partial Results – Energy Use 16
ISBN 978-3-943704-59-4
4.4 Partial Results – Climate Policy 18
You can find this publication as well
as interactive maps and tables at 5. Country Example: Germany 20
www.climate-change-performance-index.org
6. Sources and Further Reading Recommendations 22
A printout of this publication can be ordered at:
www.germanwatch.org/en/14639
With financial support from
the Barthel Foundation
2
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Foreword
Dear Reader,
Recognizing the urgency to take immediate action in protect- house gas emissions of the 56 countries and the EU that are
ing the global climate, the 21st Conference of the Parties, held assessed in the CCPI. In addition to that, the index now is
in December 2015 in Paris, made a groundbreaking achieve- suited even better to measure how well countries are on track
ment in adopting the goal to limit global warming to “well to the global goals of the Paris Agreement. It does so by not
below” 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. only comparing countries by their development and recent
Under the Paris Agreement, for the first time climate action trends in the three categories “GHG Emissions”, “Renewable
was anchored in the context of international law. This requires Energy” and “Energy Use”, but also the 2°C-compatibility of
countries to make their own unique contribution to the pre- their current status and future targets in each of these catego-
vention of dangerous climate change. The next crucial step ries. The index also continues to evaluate countries’ ambition
to follow this agreement is the rapid implementation by the and progress in the field of climate policy.
signing parties of concrete measures to make their individual
contributions to the global goal. For the past 13 years, the The following publication is issued by Germanwatch, the
Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) has been keeping NewClimate Institute and the Climate Action Network.
track of countries’ efforts in combating climate change. The However, only with the help of around 300 energy and climate
varying initial positions, interests and strategies of the numer- experts from all over the world we are able to include a re-
ous countries make it difficult to distinguish their strengths view of each country’s national and international policies. The
and weaknesses and the CCPI has been an important tool in review charts the efforts that have been made to avoid dan-
contributing to a clearer understanding of national and inter- gerous climate change, and also evaluates the various coun-
national climate policy. tries’ current efforts regarding the implementation of the Paris
Agreement. We greatly appreciate these experts for their time,
To demonstrate existing measures more accurately and to efforts and knowledge in contributing to this publication. The
encourage steps toward effective climate policy, we evaluated experts are mainly representatives of NGOs who work within
the design of the CCPI this year with several achievements: their respective countries, fighting for the implementation of
For the first time, it is monitoring the development of all green- the climate policy that we all so desperately need.
Best regards,
Wael Hmaidan Niklas Hoehne Franziska Marten Jan Burck
(Climate Action (NewClimate Institute) (Germanwatch) (Germanwatch)
Network International)
3
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
1. Key Country Results
After a historic success in agreeing on a new international cli- current level of per capita energy use and its corresponding
mate treaty in 2015 in Paris, the success of the Paris Agreement well-below-2°C compatibility, result in a high rating in this cat-
must now be measured by the implementation of mitigation egory.
targets on a national level. As in all past editions of the CCPI, the
places 1 to 3 remain unoccupied because even after the Paris Norway 7
Agreement came into force, no country has yet done enough to
prevent the dangerous impacts of climate change. The following Slightly behind Morocco, Norway occupies seventh rank. While
overview highlights the performance of 27 selected countries Norway ranks high in every indicator of the emissions category,
and the EU. The results of all 56 countries and the EU can be experts criticize that, as a result of high government subsidies,
found in chapter 4. the country exports a lot of fossil fuels leading to higher emis-
sions in other countries. This is reflected in the assessment of
Sweden 4 national policy, yet due to its role in international negotiations
the country still ranks high in the policy section. Rating also high
Driven in particular by a comparably high performance in the in- in the renewables category of the index, Norway’s overall perfor-
dex’ emissions category, Sweden ranks fourth in this year’s CCPI. mance is dampened by a low rating in energy use.
Per capita emissions have showed a relatively positive develop-
ment from 2010 - 2015 with and without LULUCF*. However, GHG United Kingdom 8
emissions without LULUCF are decreasing at a much slower
pace. Main drivers for the drop within Sweden‘s LULUCF emis- The UK ranks number eight in this year’s CCPI. A strongly de-
sions are net forest growth but also natural fluctuations in emis- creasing emissions trend over the last years, mainly driven by a
sions from the agricultural sector. Another cause of concern is shift from a production-based to a service-oriented economy,
that whilst having a very high scoring in terms of the current has resulted in a high performance in the index‘ emissions cat-
share of renewable energies, the country’s renewable energy egory. After weakened climate policy in the past years and cut-
target for 2030 is still not sufficient for the well-below-2°C limit. backs especially on the promotion of renewables, the newly
National experts criticize the restricting extent of the renewable passed clean growth strategy includes a commitment to off-
energy target that only focuses on the electricity sector. They shore wind, and to coal phase-out. If consistently implemented,
further argue for a near-term phase out of nuclear energy and national experts see the country’s power sector on the way to
fossil fuels, especially emphasizing natural gas, and demand getting back on track. The plan also includes policy on clean
action on Sweden’s transport sector and consumption-based vehicles which could be effective in further driving decarbonisa-
emissions that are twice the size of territorial emissions, and tion, experts claim. Within the UK the level of ambition varies:
not decreasing. While Scotland, for example, has gone for a 2032 petrol and
diesel car ban, the UK aims for 2040. Yet, the country’s long-term
Lithuania 5 2030 targets for emissions and renewable energy are not ambi-
tious enough for a well-below-2°C pathway.
Lithuania secured fifth rank in the CCPI 2018. It is to be noted
that the country, while receiving a very high rating for being on Finland 9
track regarding a well-below-2°C trajectory in terms of emis-
sions, the emissions trend over the past five years has increased As the third Nordic country to make it into the top 10, Finland
and therefore is rated low. The same can be observed in the reached ninth rank. This is especially due to it being the second
energy use section, where a weak trend is offset by a very high best performing country in the emissions category, profiting
rated target as well as very good compliance with a well-below- from a very high rated trend as well as from complying with
2°C pathway. For renewables the reverse is true: the country’s its well-below-2°C trajectory. Yet, concerning energy use, the
2030 target is rather unambitious and therefore rated low, while country ranks very low due to very high energy use levels as
the recent trend points into a positive direction. well as an insufficient target for 2030. Experts acknowledge
the introduction of plans to phase out coal but criticize their
Morocco 6 government for at the same time still subsidizing other fossil
fuels such as peat, which is why the country ranks only medium
Driven by a high rating in the policy and energy use categories, in the policy section.
Morocco is rated in the group of high performers within the
overall tableau of this year’s CCPI. The country profits from a India 14
low emissions level and an ambitious GHG emissions reduction
target by 2030. Morocco was able to install many new renewable With a high rating in the emissions and energy use categories,
energy capacities within the last five years, which most likely India secured 14th place in the ranking. With its still low per cap-
will lead to a better rating regarding renewables next year. The ita emissions, the country’s emissions level is showing compat-
country shows a high performance in the energy use category, ibility with a well-below-2°C pathway. Yet emissions over the last
targeting an ambitious level for 2030. Furthermore, Morocco’s years have increased relatively strong. India ranks medium in the
* Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
4
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
climate policy category with its plans for further promoting re- medium when comparing its 2030 reduction target to a well-
newables. Despite India‘s significant deployment of renewables, below-2°C pathway.
the country should further improve the targets for this category.
Ukraine 20
France 15
The Ukraine is ranked 20th in this year’s edition of the CCPI. It is
Driven by a high performance in the policy category, France se- the highest ranking country in the energy use category, where
cured 15th position in this year’s CCPI ranking. National experts it performs comparably high to very high in all four indicators.
especially lauded the country’s conduct in international climate Despite having a good emissions reduction trend, the country
diplomacy. Yet it is noteworthy that this leading role has not is only rated medium in the emissions section as its 2030 target
meant sufficient implementation at national level so far. Experts lacks ambition. The same counts for the category renewable
criticize their country, because it will very likely miss its 2020 tar- energy, where a comparably very high rated trend is not able to
get for renewable energy. Its performance in the GHG emissions counterbalance the very low current level and the weak target.
category is only medium, as France is not currently on track for
well-below-2°C, nor has it set sufficient targets for 2030. In the EU 21
energy use section, France is rated low.
Being evaluated in the CCPI for the first time, the European
Italy 16 Union–the only supranational entity in the index–lands at place
21 in the ranking. As the union consists of 28 nations, there
Not having set an ambitious enough mitigation target to be are wide differences in the performance of individual member
aligned with a well-below-2°C pathway yet, Italy–ranking 16th states. The EU as a whole accounts for about 8% of global GHG
in this year’s CCPI–is rated medium in the emissions category emissions. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme is the largest car-
of the index. Despite playing a constructive role in the context bon market in operation but carbon prices are significantly
of the G7 process, Italian experts criticize their country for not insufficient. In the CCPI, the EU rates medium in emissions, re-
being proactive enough. They also maintain that Italy lacks clear newables and energy use. EU experts emphasize the union‘s
measures for implementing its long-term strategies domesti- constructive role in international climate diplomacy but criticize
cally. The same goes for instruments to reduce energy use. In the slow progress in putting in place new and more ambitious
terms of renewable energy, the country has made progress and policies and targets. Disagreements about the future of the
achieved high ratings in three of the four indicators defining this European project would lead to weak agreements based on
category. lowest common denominators, with the failure to substantially
reform the Emissions Trading System being the most symp-
Denmark 17 tomatic example. They see current discussions on new clean
energy policies and how to ensure the EU budget supports
While Denmark ranks 17th in the CCPI 2018, experts criticize that such policies as ideal opportunities to increase the ambition of
the current government cancelled plans for a coal phase-out as climate action.
well as the existing reduction targets after taking office, which
results in a relatively low performance in terms of climate policy. Germany 22
The country still ranks high in terms of renewables as well as
regarding energy use due to positive trends in both categories. Germany ranks number 22 in this year’s CCPI edition. As the
Nonetheless, the low rating for Denmark’s 2030 emissions target world’s biggest user of lignite, Germany still has relatively high
and the country’s compliance with a well-below-2°C pathway, it GHG emissions with nearly no improvements regarding GHG
receives a medium rating in that category. trends within the last years and is rated low in this category.
Its dependence on coal remains a major decelerator to achiev-
Brazil 19 ing alignment with the well-below-2°C emissions pathway. The
energy use per capita (low) is higher than the EU average but
Ranking 19th, Brazil is leading the group of medium-performing has shown little improvement over the last years. Germany’s
countries. Domestic experts criticize climate policy under the renewable growth rates are rated as high but regarding the
current government, saying it lacks substance, especially with 2030 renewable energy target, national experts see room for
regard to the implementation of already existing measures. Due improvement. Germany has taken on an increasingly vocal
to its large share of hydropower and therefore its high current role within the international climate negotiations and during
level of renewables in the energy mix, Brazil is rated relatively the G20 summit, for which the country receives a high rating.
high in the renewables category of the index. In the GHG emis- Domestically, experts criticize their last (and still acting) gov-
sions category, the country managed to barely reach the upper ernment for insufficient action on implementing the promises
third under the influence of its weak tendencies over the past it made in Paris into national law (low rating).
years. Promising signals of a reduction in emissions from for-
estry were relativized recently when the government cut back The CCPI 2018 takes a closer look on Germany’s performance in
on important policies targeting that sector. The same holds for this year’s country special in chapter 5.
energy use, where, compared to the other countries, Brazil rates
very low in its developments within the last five years but still
5
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Mexico 27 China develops renewable energy at a very high speed, but its
share of renewables within the energy mix in 2015 was still rela-
Coming in at place 27, Mexico is performing relatively well in tively low. And with a still insufficiently ambitious 2030 renewable
the policy category. This is due to national experts appreciat- energy target, the country has a medium rating for this category.
ing recent actions taken by the government, like a significant
reduction in fossil fuel subsidies for example which, combined Argentina 46
with a strong appearance on the international stage, leads to a
high rating. A very low-rated 2030 target for renewable energy Argentina holds position 46 in this year’s CCPI ranking. The
and a lack of compliance with a well-below-2°C compatible country is performing very low on emissions and is currently
pathway make Mexico one of the worst performing countries far removed from meeting a well-below-2°C compatible trajec-
in the renewables section, while ranking slightly above average tory. Argentina further ranks low in both the energy use and
concerning energy use as well as GHG emissions. renewable energy categories. While there is progress in the use
of renewables, which is already reflected in the trend indicator,
Indonesia 37 national experts criticize Argentina for its vast investments in
unconventional fossil fuels, such as shale gas and shale oil.
Indonesia is classified as a low-performing country in this year’s While acknowledging their country would have shown its inten-
ranking. Although the rating of its GHG emissions reduction tar- tion of going ahead with mitigation plans and recognizing the
get for 2030 is relatively high, Indonesia’s past trends and cur- challenges of also moving forward with their implementation,
rent status of GHG emissions per capita are rated comparably experts also demand for more ambition.
very low and low. Its relatively high emissions due to deforesta-
tion and forest degradation in particular have a large impact Turkey 47
on Indonesia’s ranking. With its large amounts of hydropower,
Indonesia rates high in share of renewables compared to other Turkey ranks 47th in the CCPI 2018. This partly results from
countries, yet lacks ambition in aligning its 2030 targets for re- Turkey being rated very low concerning climate policy with ex-
newable energy and energy use to a well-below-2°C compatible perts criticizing unambitious targets, weak implementation and
pathway. The lack of bold action to phase out fossil fuels and a counterproductive policy measures domestically as well as a
new policy, which according to national experts prevents invest- weak performance in international climate diplomacy. Turkey
ments in renewables, might be reasons for not moving forward, also ranks low in emissions and energy use due to negative
the experts claim. developments in both categories. One upside is the renewables
section, where positive developments over the course of the last
Poland 40 years resulted in a high rating.
Poland ranks 40th in this year’s edition of the Climate Change South Africa 48
Performance Index. National experts specifically point out that
the country hasn’t played a constructive role in international South Africa ranks 48th in the CCPI this year. The country faces a
negotiations especially within the EU, where it continues to fight very low rating concerning GHG emissions, due to an insufficient
sufficient climate legislation targeting higher carbon prices in 2030 target and its current level of emissions, both being incom-
the EU Emissions Trading Scheme for example. Domestically, patible with a well-below-2°C trajectory. Experts emphasize
the country is heavily reliant on coal, and climate protection that, even though the country is performing well in international
policies are mainly driven by the implementation of EU legis- negotiations, it lacks ambition and stringent implementation of
lation, experts criticize. Poland rates low in every indicator of policies at home, which results in a medium rating in the CCPI’s
the emissions category besides the trend, where it was able to policy section. An only medium-rated development of renewa-
achieve a medium rating. The country also rates medium in the bles and a very low-rated 2030 target for renewables are reasons
renewable energy section of the index, since it shows a positive for a low performance with regard to this category.
development over the past years, while at the same time is still
lacking a sufficient 2030 target. Ireland 49
China 41 Being the worst performing European country in the CCPI,
Ireland ranks 49th. According to national experts, Ireland is one
China is the world’s largest emitter of GHG emissions. In the of the few EU countries to miss its 2020 emission reduction tar-
emissions category of the index, the country is to be found in gets under the EU effort-sharing decision, which is one reason
the group of very low performers, even though per capita GHG why the country rates very low in climate policy. Its performance
emissions have hardly increased since 2013. The 2030 reduction in the field of GHG emissions is also very low as the country is
target and past emissions trends are rated very low compared to nowhere close to being on track concerning its well-below-2°C
the other countries and not in line with a well-below-2°C com- compatible pathway with both its current level as well as its
patible pathway. However, the country is ambitious concern- 2030 target. We observe a very positive trend in the develop-
ing assuming a leading role in international climate diplomacy. ment of renewable energy, but as the current share of renew-
Domestically, China has developed a series of policies to pro- able energy in energy supply–as well as the 2030 target–are in-
mote renewables and phase out coal capacity, experts claim. sufficient, Ireland rates only medium in the renewables category.
6
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Japan 50 will be taken by cities and states on the subnational level as well
as by the economic sector to counterbalance the disastrous
Japan ranks 50 th in this year’s CCPI and shows a very low to developments in federal policy. And ambitious action would be
low performance in all categories except energy use, where the crucially needed with the USA being the second largest emitter
country scored medium. National experts see the continued in the world and emission levels therefore being considerably
increase in the number of coal-fired power plants as becoming a too high to be in line with a well-below-2°C pathway. A high-
major threat to achieving Japan’s already weak 2030 mitigation rated growth rate of renewables over the course of the past
target. One bright spot can be seen in developments in renew- years led to a slightly more positive rating in the renewables
able energy throughout the last five years, where the country category compared to the other index categories. There are
received a high rating. positive signs showing this development could be secured even
against current policy developments.
Canada 51
Australia 57
As one of the largest producers of absolute greenhouse gases as
well as per capita emissions, Canada is ranked 51st in this year’s Australia ranks among the very low-performing countries in
CCPI edition. Additionally, having a very low-rated 2030 GHG three of the CCPI’s categories–GHG emissions, energy use and
reduction target, the country will need higher ambitions to be climate policy–and among the low performers regarding renew-
on track with a well-below-2°C compatible pathway. Regarding able energy, which results in position 57 in the overall tableau.
the category energy use, Canada’s performance is very low in Experts emphasize the need to strengthen the country’s 2030
terms of the current level as well as the 2030 target. Having targets especially in terms of emissions reduction and renew-
large hydropower capacities and a very positive trend from able energy and demand that their government sufficiently im-
other renewable capacities as wind or solar, Canada receives a plement credible policies for meeting these targets.
medium rating in the renewables category. Canada gets com-
parably very high grades for its performance in international
climate diplomacy. Domestically, experts praise the leadership Republic of Korea 58
of several provinces having ambitious 2030 targets for their per
capita emissions and energy supply from renewable sources. South Korea ranks in the bottom 3 of this year’s CCPI with a
Nonetheless, experts also criticize the lack of a joined climate comparably very low and severely misaligned performance with
responsibility on the national level and demand more specific regard to a well-below-2°C pathway in the GHG emissions and
strategies in order to progress on decarbonizing the country’s energy use categories. Coming from a very low level of renewa-
economy. bles in the energy supply, the country’s very high rating in the
development of renewable energy adds a bright spot to its over-
Russia 53 all performance. Nonetheless, national experts worry about the
increasing installation of coal capacity and coal consumption
The Russian Federation ranks 53rd in the CCPI 2018. With its high and criticize their government for its unambitious 2030 emis-
level of GHG emissions and a mitigation target that drastically sions reduction target
overshoots the benchmark for a well-below-2°C compatible
pathway, the country is rated very low in emissions and low
in energy use in comparison to the other countries. Not ac- Saudi Arabia 60
counting for large hydropower in its own official assessment of
renewable energy, the country is rated very low in all of the four Saudi Arabia as this year’s worst performing country ranks 60th.
indicators defining this category. National experts report about The kingdom is rated very low in every single category and in
useful policies for the support of renewables being in place all indicators for emissions, energy use and renewable energy.
but too small in scale. Generally, experts criticize Russia’s low Policy is lacking as well with experts criticizing the country’s
ambition in domestic climate policy and a lack of implementing very poor appearance in international negotiations.
concrete measures.
USA 56
Already in the first months of the Trump Administration, the
USA started to take several steps backwards on climate action,
especially by declaring its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement
and dismantling the Clean Power Plan. As such, policy evalua-
tions dropped dramatically, especially regarding international
climate diplomacy, where national experts rated its country’s
performance very low. National policy grades are still slightly
more positive, as (1) the new government has not yet erased
all the efforts of the previous administration and (2) there are
positive signs that more ambitious action on climate protection
7
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
2. Key Developments
Two years after agreeing to limit global warming to well below threshold of global warming. Prices for oil, gas and coal are drop-
2°C, and to pursue efforts to even aim for a 1.5°C limit, we still see ping, which sets an incentive to use them also in the longer term.
a huge ambition gap1 in the countries‘ greenhouse gas reduction To maintain the positive developments in renewables, the need
targets and their progress regarding a sufficient implementation to set more ambitious renewable energy targets and appropriate
of the Paris agreement in national legislation. carbon regulation including prices is increasing every day.
Nonetheless, there are encouraging signs that a global energy The global reaction to Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the
transition is underway. Numbers show that, in 2014, 2015 and USA from the Paris Agreement has so far made the other
2016, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions did not countries present a united front in holding on to the goals
grow further - the first time since industrial revolution in years of the Agreement. It still remains to be shown whether this
without a big economic crisis. Also, according to the recent UNEP will hold true when it comes to the real implementation of nec-
“Emission Gap Report” all global greenhouse gas emissions de- essary policies. Positive signs have also come from US towns,
clined in 2016 for the first time since the early 1980s.2 However, states and companies, as well as actors in the financial market.
preliminary data published by the Global Carbon Project indi- Many of them implement their own strategies and at the same
cates that the emission in 2017 increased again by 2%.3 time demand more ambitious climate action internationally and
nationally. They ask for a reliable and stringent policy framework
The decarbonisation of energy systems plays a key role in limiting and investment-relevant CO2 price signals.
emissions and in reducing them in the future. In addition, it is an
encouraging sign for ongoing decarbonisation that global energy- One of the key tasks of ongoing climate negotiations is to
related emissions have not grown, while primary energy demand establish an “ambition mechanism”, thus continuously rais-
has grown by an annual average of around 1.8% since 2011.4 ing ambition in order to close the remaining gap between
the countries‘ emissions reduction targets and the global
Investments in renewable energies continue to dominate limit for temperature rise. This is not only a request to raise
the new investments in the energy system worldwide. At the the mitigation target, but also the level of climate financing and
same time coal use is declining. Last year the world consump- innovative ways of cooperation, regarding technologies as well
tion of coal was 1.7% less than in 2015. Even though coal prices as beyond technology. To find new ways of cooperation, it is
have fallen, coal production already peaked in 2013 globally5 equally important for countries to deliver on their promises and
and among the world‘s largest emitters, China, the USA, as well adopt sufficient legislation domestically. As Paris has requested
as in the EU. In 2015, almost all countries included in the index and G19 has promised, countries should put forward their plans
maintained double-digit growth rates in renewable energy and for moving towards greenhouse gas neutrality until 2050.
we see solar and wind technologies being more competitive
from year to year. While growth rates of renewables have been The design of the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI)
particularly strong in industrialised countries in the past, emerg- has now been changed, taking into account the new reality after
ing economies are playing an increasingly crucial role in the adopting the Paris Agreement. It is now suited to measure the
global energy transition. China is leading the upsurge in renew- progress of countries towards contributing to the temperature
able energy, but Middle Eastern, North African and Central and limit the global community agreed to in Paris.
South American countries are also expected to increase their
installed capacity drastically by 2018. 51% of global capacity It is also important to note that data show none of the 56 coun-
in wind energy and 53% in solar6 energy is already installed in tries or the EU on a well-below-2°C pathway in their overall per-
emerging economies, indicating the potential of leapfrogging a formance, while there are some initial indications that this might
fossil-fuel-based industrialisation. change for a few countries during the next years. Countries have
to prove consistency in implementing necessary policies
Shrinking costs for renewable energies (wind and solar) is also to reach national mitigation targets and raise ambition in
an opportunity to more rapidly phasing out fossil fuels in the adapting their targets to what would be well-below-2°C or
order of magnitude that is necessary to meet the well-below-2°C 1.5°C compatible.
3. About the CCPI
The Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) is an instrument On the basis of standardised criteria, the index evaluates and
designed to enhance transparency in international climate poli- compares the climate protection performance of 56 countries
tics. Its aim is to put political and social pressure on those coun- and the EU, which are together responsible for more than 90
tries which have, up until now, failed to take ambitious action on percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
climate protection. It also aims to highlight those countries with
best practice climate policies. 1 UNEP (2017) 4 REN21 (2017)
2 UNEP (2017) 5 BP (2017)
3 http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/ 6 Financial Times (2017)
8
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
In 2017 the design of the CCPI was revised, due to recent global egories GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy and Energy Use are
climate policy developments in the last years. One of the major defined by four indicators each (recent developments, current
events that marked a milestone in the international climate levels and 2°C compatibility of the current performance as well
negotiations was the entry into force of the Paris Agreement. as an evaluation of the countries’ 2030 targets in the respective
For the first time, it is possible to measure the performance of categories). With these complements, the CCPI covers the evalu-
states based on the promises they themselves formulated in ation of the countries promises as well as their current progress
their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). So far 169 7 in terms of climate protection.
Parties have ratified the Paris Agreement and promised to com-
bat dangerous climate change in limiting global temperature For the pathways, we set three ambitious targets that are es-
rise to well-below-2°C or even 1.5° C. sential to stay well below 2°C, which have to be reached until
2050: nearly zero GHG emissions (taking into account country-
The CCPI aims to capture the fulfillment of those promises specific pathways, which give developing countries a bit more
and evaluates the countries’ 2030 targets within the impor- time to reach this goal), a share of 100% energy from renewable
tant categories greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy sources, and remaining at today’s global energy use per capita
and energy use to determine, how well they are on track to a levels. The CCPI compares where countries actually are and
well-below-2°C pathway. The CCPI now also reflects countries’ where they need to be, to meet these ambitious and necessary
current performances towards this pathway in absolute terms, benchmarks. Following a similar logic, the CCPI evaluates the
in addition to the remaining relative indicators measuring the countries’ own 2030 targets in comparing them to the same
current level and past trends in all three categories. 40% of the benchmarks.
evaluation is based on indicators of emissions, 20% on renew-
able energies and 20% on energy use. The remaining 20% of Still, more than half of the CCPI ranking indicators are qualified
the CCPI evaluation is based on climate policy assessments in relative terms (better–worse) rather than absolute. Therefore,
by experts from the respective countries. Besides changes in even those countries with high rankings have no reason to sit
the weighting and smaller modifications within the calculation back and relax. On the contrary, the results illustrate that even
method, the addition of indicators, which measure the progress if all countries were as involved as the current front runners,
of countries on their way not to overshoot the well-below-2°C efforts would not yet be sufficient to prevent dangerous climate
limit, are the major changes in the new design. The three cat- change.
Components of the CCPI
International Climate Policy Current Levels of GHG Emissions
10% 10% per Capita
National Climate Policy Past Emission Trends of
10% 10% GHG Emissions per Capita
20%
Climate
TPES/Capita 2030 Target Policy
compared to a well-below-2°C 40%
5% GHG
Current Levels of GHG
compatible pathway Emissions compared to a
20% Emissions 10% well-below-2°C compatible
Current Levels of TPES/Capita 5% Energy pathway
compared to a well-below-2°C Use
compatible pathway 20%
5% Renewable
Past Trends of TPES/Capita Energy 10% GHG Emissions Reduction
2030 Target compared
Current Levels of Energy Use
5% to a well-below-2°C
(TPES/Capita) compatible pathway
5% 5%
5% 5%
Renewable Energy 2030Target Current Share of Renewables
compared to a well-below-2°C per TPES
compatible pathway
Current Share of Renewables per TPES compared Development of Energy Supply from
to a well-below-2°C compatible pathway Renewable Energy Sources
GHG = Greenhouse Gases | TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply © Germanwatch 2017
7 11.11.2017
9
CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
4. Overall Results CCPI 2018
© Germanwatch 2017
This section shows the overall results of this year’s
Climate Change Performance Index 2018. The ranking
results of this category are defined by a country’s ag-
gregated performance regarding 14 indicators within
the four categories GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy,
Energy Use and Climate Policy.
The CCPI 2018 results illustrate the main regional differ-
ences in climate protection and perfor-mance within the
56 evaluated countries and the EU. Despite decreasing
© Germanwatch 2017
growth rates in CO2 emissions, still no country performed
well enough to reach the rating “very good” in this year’s
index.
The world map shows the aggregated results and overall
performance of countries. The table on the right indicates
how the countries perform in the different categories.
Rating
In this year’s index, Sweden is leading the list, followed by Very High
Lithuania and Morocco. The group of medium-perform- High
ing countries consists of countries like Brazil, Germany,
Medium
Mexico and Ukraine while New Zealand, the Netherlands
and Austria are classified as low performers in the over Low
all rating. Very Low
Not included in assessment
Saudi Arabia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Republic of Korea,
Australia and the United States form the bottom five of
this classification, scoring low or very low across almost
all categories.
10CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Rank Country Score**
1.* – –
2. – –
3. – –
4. Sweden 74.32
5. Lithuania 69.20
6. Morocco 68.22
7. Norway 67.99
8. United Kingdom 66.79
9. Finland 66.55
10. Latvia 63.02
11. Malta 61.87
12. Switzerland 61.20
13. Croatia 61.19
14. India 60.02
15. France 59.80
16. Italy 59.65
17. Denmark 59.49
18. Portugal 59.16
19. Brazil 57.86
20. Ukraine 57.49
21. European Union (28) 56.89
22. Germany 56.58
23. Belarus 56.38
24. Slovak Republic 56.04
25. Luxembourg 55.54
26. Romania 55.32
27. Mexico 54.77
28. Egypt 54.02
29. Cyprus 52.29
30. Estonia 52.02
31. Slovenia 50.54
32. Belgium 49.60
33. New Zealand 49.57
34. Netherlands 49.49
35. Austria 49.49
36. Thailand 49.07
37. Indonesia 48.94
38. Spain 48.19
39. Greece 47.86
40. Poland 46.53
41. China 45.84
42. Bulgaria 45.35
43. Czech Republic 45.13
44. Hungary 44.00
45. Algeria 43.61
46. Argentina 41.21
47. Turkey 41.02
48. South Africa 40.61
49. Ireland 38.74 Index Categories
50. Japan 35.76 GHG Emissions
51. Canada 33.98 (40% weighting)
52. Malaysia 32.61 Renewable Energy
53. Russian Federation 29.85 (20% weighting)
54. Chinese Taipei 29.43 Energy Use
55. Kazakhstan 28.17 (20% weighting)
56. United States 25.86
Climate Policy
57. Australia 25.03 (20% weighting)
58. Republic of Korea 25.01
59. Islamic Republic of Iran 23.05
60. Saudi Arabia 11.20
* None of the countries achieved positions one to three. No country is doing enough to prevent dangerous climate change. ** rounded © Germanwatch 2017
11CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
4.1 Partial Results – GHG* Emissions
© Germanwatch 2017
Rating
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
Not included
in assessment
The sub-ranking results of the index category “GHG
Emissions” are defined by a country’s aggregated per-
formance regarding four indicators, each reflecting a
© Germanwatch 2017
different dimension and aspect of how well the coun-
try is doing in terms of GHG emissions.
The evaluation looks at (1) the current levels of per
capita GHG emissions; (2) the developments in GHG
emissions in the last five years in absolute terms,
(3) the current level of per capita GHG emissions com-
pared to a country specific well-below-2°C pathway Emissions per capita (tCO2-eq/capita, incl. LULUCF**), historic
and (4) the country’s own 2030 emissions reduction values and 2°C compatibility of current level and 2030 target
target compared to its well-below-2°C pathway. 30
The world map shows the aggregated results and
overall performance of countries in the category “GHG 25
Emissions”. The table provides more detailed informa-
tion on the top CO2-emitting countries‘ performance 20
with regard to the different indicators defining the cat-
egory. The graph on the bottom indicates how emis-
sions developed from 1990 until 2015 and visualises 15
the 2°C compatibility of both a country’s recent trend
and its 2030 target. 10
Considering emissions from LULUCF** in the new in-
dex design, Sweden is the best performing country 5
regarding GHG emissions, followed by Finland, Egypt
and Croatia, while the Islamic Republic of the Islamic 0
Republic of Iran, Republic of Korea and Saudi Arabia
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
perform very low in every indicator of this category
and build the bottom three. Generally, mitigation tar-
gets for 2030 are too low and not on track for a path-
way towards well below 2°C or even 1.5°C warming.
* Greenhouse Gas Emissions
** Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany
12CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Greenhouse Gas Emissions – Rating Table for the 20 Largest CO2 Emitters*
Rank Country Total Current Status Recent Emission Current Levels GHG Emissions
Rating of GHG Emissions Trends of GHG of GHG Emissions Reduction Target
per Capita Emissions per compared to a compared to a
Capita well-below-2°C well-below-2°C
compatible compatible
pathway pathway
9. United Kingdom High Medium High Medium Medium
14. India High Very High Very low Very High High
21. Brazil Medium Medium Very low High Medium
26. Mexico Medium High Low Medium Low
27. France Medium Medium High Low Low
29. European Union (28) Medium Medium High Low Low
39. Indonesia Low Low Very low Medium High
40. Germany Low Low Medium Low Low
45. Turkey Low High Very low High Very low
46. Argentina Very low Low Low Very low Very low
48. Japan Very low Low Low Very low Very low
49. South Africa Very low Low Low Very low Very low
50. Russian Federation Very low Very low Low Medium Very low
52. China Very low Medium Very low Low Very low
53. United States Very low Very low Medium Very low Very low
55. Canada Very low Very low Low Very low Very low
57. Australia Very low Very low Medium Very low Very low
58. Islamic Republic of Iran Very low Low Very low Very low Very low
59. Republic of Korea Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low
60. Saudi Arabia Very low Very low Very low Very low Very low
* The ratings for all 56 countries and the EU can be found here: www.climate-change-performance-index.org © Germanwatch 2017
Historic emissions per capita
Well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target below
well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target above
well-below-2°C pathway
no target
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
Emissions 2015
2030 target & 2°C pathway
1990
Emissions 2015
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
India Indonesia Islamic Japan Republic Mexico Russian Saudi South Turkey United United European
Rep. of Iran of Korea Federation Arabia Africa Kingdom States Union (28)
13CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
4.2 Partial Results – Renewable Energy
© Germanwatch 2017
Rating
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
Not included
in assessment
The sub-ranking results of the index category “Renew
able Energy” are defined by a country’s aggregated per-
formance regarding four indicators, each reflecting a dif-
© Germanwatch 2017
ferent dimension and aspect of how well the country is
doing in terms of renewable energy.
The evaluation looks at (1) current levels of the share
of renewable energy in total primary energy supply;
(2) developments of renewable energy in the last five
years in absolute terms; (3) current levels of the share of
renewable energy in total primary energy supply com- Renewable Energy target (% of TPES*), historic values and
pared to a country-specific pathway that is in line with 2°C compatibility benchmarks
the well-below-2°C temperature limit; (4) the countries’
100%
own 2030 renewable energy targets compared its well-
below-2°C pathway. 90%
80%
The world map shows the aggregated results and overall
performance of countries in the category “Renewable 70%
Energy”. The table provides more detailed information
60%
on the top CO2-emitting countries’ performance with
regard to the different indicators defining the category. 50%
The graph on the bottom indicates how renewable en-
40%
ergy developed from 2010 until 2015 and visualises the
2°C compatibility of both a country´s current level and 30%
2030 target. 20%
Since the energy sector contributes greatly to the CO2 10%
emissions of a country, renewable energies are a key 0%
driver for mitigating emissions. Traditionally, relatively
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
well performing countries in this category are the ones
with a high share of renewables, such as Denmark,
Norway, Sweden, Austria, New Zealand, Latvia, and
Germany, for instance. This year, Latvia is top of the list,
followed by New Zealand. The group of very poorly per-
forming countries includes Mexico, Malaysia, Egypt, the
Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and the Islamic Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany
Republic of Iran.
* Total Primary Energy Supply
14CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Renewable Energy – Rating Table for the 20 Largest CO2 Emitters*
Rank Country Total Current Share Development of Current Share of Renewable
Rating of Renewables Energy Supply Renewables per Energy 2030
per TPES from Renewable TPES compared to Target compared
Energy Sources a well-below-2°C to a well-below-
compatible 2°C compatible
pathway pathway
12. United Kingdom High Medium Very High Medium Medium
13. Brazil High Very High Medium Medium Medium
14. Turkey High Medium Very High Medium Low
15. Germany High High High Medium Medium
22. European Union (28) Medium High High Medium Low
24. China Medium Low Very High Low Very Low
30. Republic of Korea Medium Very Low Very High Very Low Very Low
34. France Medium Low High Low Medium
36. Indonesia Medium High Medium Low Low
39. Canada Medium High High Low Very Low
42. India Low Medium High Very Low Very Low
44. United States Low Low High Low Very Low
45. Japan Low Low High Low Very Low
47. Argentina Low Medium High Very Low Very Low
49. Australia Low Low High Low Very Low
51. South Africa Low Low Medium Low Very Low
54. Mexico Very Low Low Medium Very Low Very Low
57. Russian Federation Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
58. Saudi Arabia Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
60. Islamic Republic of Iran Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
* The ratings for all 56 countries and the EU can be found here: www.climate-change-performance-index.org © Germanwatch 2017
Historic share of Renewable
Energy in TPES
Well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target of share of Renewable
Energy per TPES
Gap from 2030 target to
well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
1990
Emissions 2015
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
2010
2015
India Indonesia Islamic Japan Republic Mexico Russian Saudi South Turkey United United European
Rep. of Iran of Korea Federation Arabia Africa Kingdom States Union (28)
15CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
4.3 Partial Results – Energy Use
© Germanwatch 2017
Rating
Very High
High
Medium
Low
Very Low
Not included
in assessment
The sub-ranking results of the index category “Energy
Use” are defined by a country’s aggregated performance
regarding four indicators, each reflecting a different di-
© Germanwatch 2017
mension and aspect of how well the country is doing in
terms of energy use.
The evaluation looks at (1) current levels of per capita
energy use; (2) developments of per-capita energy use
in the last five years in absolute terms; (3) current levels
of per capita energy use compared to a country-specific
pathway that is in line with the well-below-2°C tempera- Total Primary Energy Supply per capita (GJ/capita), historic
ture limit; (4) the countries’ own 2030 energy use targets values, targets and 2°C compatible benchmarks
compared its well-below-2°C pathway.
450
The world map shows the aggregated results and overall
400
performance of countries in the category “Energy Use”.
The table provides more detailed information on the top 350
CO2-emitting countries‘ performance with regard to the
300
different indicators defining the category. The graph on
the bottom indicates how energy use per capita devel- 250
oped from 1990 until 2015 and visualises the 2°C compat-
ibility of both a country’s current level and 2030 target. 200
150
Ukraine, Malta, Morocco as well as Romania are the front-
runners in the Energy Use section, mostly due to low 100
current levels of energy use and relatively good ratings
regarding a 2°C compatible pathway in this category. 50
New Zealand, Islamic Republic of Iran, Canada, Republic
0
of Korea and Saudi Arabia are this year’s worst-perform-
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
ing countries, scoring low or very low across nearly all
indicators. While emerging economies tend to perform
decently in this category, Algeria, Turkey, India and China
have been rapidly increasing their energy use in the last
few years.
Argentina Australia Brazil Canada China France Germany
16CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
Energy Use – Rating Table for the 20 Largest CO2 Emitters*
Rank Country Total Current Status Recent Trends Current Levels TPES/Capita 2030
Rating of Energy Use of TPES/Capita of TPES/Capita Target compared
(TPES**/Capita) compared to a to a well-below-
well-below-2°C 2°C compatible
compatible pathway
pathway
11. India High Very High Very Low Very High High
18. United Kingdom Medium Medium High Medium Low
19. Indonesia Medium Very High Low Very High Low
25. Brazil Medium Very High Very Low Low High
27. Mexico Medium High Low Medium Very Low
29. South Africa Medium Medium Medium Very Low Low
30. Japan Medium Low High Very Low Very Low
31. European Union (28) Medium Low Medium Low Low
35. Germany Low Low Medium Low Medium
36. France Low Low Medium Very Low Medium
39. Argentina Low High Low Very Low Low
42. Turkey Low High Very Low Very Low High
46. Russian Federation Low Very Low Low Low Medium
51. Australia Very Low Very Low Medium Very Low Very Low
52. China Very Low High Very Low Very Low Very Low
54. United States Very Low Very Low Medium Very Low Very Low
57. Islamic Republic of Iran Very Low Medium Very Low Very Low Very Low
58. Canada Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low
59. Republic of Korea Very Low Very Low Low Very Low Very Low
60. Saudi Arabia Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low
* The ratings for all 56 countries and the EU can be found here: www.climate-change-performance-index.org ** Total Primary Energy Supply © Germanwatch 2017
Historic Energy Use per capita
Well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target below
well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target above
well-below-2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
2030 target & 2°C pathway
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
1990
2015
India Indonesia Islamic Japan Republic Mexico Russian Saudi South Turkey United United European
Rep. of Iran of Korea Federation Arabia Africa Kingdom States Union (28)
17CCPI • Results 2018 Germanwatch, NewClimate Institute & Climate Action Network
4.4 Partial Results – Climate Policy
© Germanwatch 2017
With the index category “Climate Policy”, we consider
the fact that measures taken by governments to reduce
GHG often take several years to show their effect on the
emissions, renewable energy and energy use indicators.
On top of this, the most current GHG emissions data
provided by PRIMAP and the IEA is about two years old.
However, the assessment of climate policy includes very
recent developments. The effect that current govern-
ments benefit or suffer from the consequences of the
preceding administration’s climate actions is thereby
© Germanwatch 2017
reduced.
The qualitative data of the indicators in the field of
“Climate Policy” is assessed annually in a comprehen-
sive research study. Its basis is the performance rating
by about 300 climate change experts from civil society
within the countries that are evaluated. By means of a
questionnaire, they give a judgement and rating on the Rating
most important policies and concrete measures of their Very High
governments as well as its implementation status and
effects on the country’s decarbonisation progress. High
Medium
The policy category of the CCPI is led by Morocco, China,
Low
France and Portugal who all score high regarding na-
tional and international climate policy, while Hungary, Very Low
Bulgaria, the United States and Turkey form the group Not included in assessment
of the worst-performing countries not only lacking cli-
mate-friendly legislation at home, but also often hinder-
ing progress in international negotiations. It is notewor-
thy that many countries, including Canada, Germany,
Argentina and South Africa, for example, are performing
relatively well on the international stage, yet seem to
be failing to deliver on sufficiently implementing policy
measures at the national level.
18You can also read
