STAGING THE MOTIONS OF 'RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT' IN SYRIA? - BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM - Cesran International
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ISSN: 2042-888X S TAGING THE M OTIONS OF ‘RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT’ IN SYRIA? BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM
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POLITICAL
VOL. 3 - NO. 2
MARCH
APRIL
MAY | 2012
REFLECTION
“ADVANCING
DIVERSITY”
4 WORLD STORIES 50 INTERVIEW
5 NOTABLE QUOTES An Interview with
6
Dr Nicholas Osbaldiston
MIDDLE EAST REVIEW
(Monash University)
Staging the Motions of
BY DR. JEAN-PAUL GAGNON
‘Responsibility to Protect’
in Syria? 14 56 EUROPE REVIEW
BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM
Cypriot Natural Gas
14 EURASIA REVIEW and the Eastern Mediterranean:
Perfect Nuclear Storm Between Crisis and Cooperation
Waiting to Happen in BY ZENONAS TZIARRAS
Russia’s Northwest Region
BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD 22 60 MIDDLE EAST REVIEW
A “WMD-free” Middle East
ROUSSEAU
is a Disarmed Israel even
22 COMMENTARY
Desirable for the Region?
U.S. Foreign Policy
BY EDVIN ARNBY-MACHATA
and The Arab Spring
BY DR. H. AKIN ÜNVER 62 FILM REVIEW
30 What is Wrong with Once Upon a Time in
Politics of the Irrepresentable? 38 Anatolia
BY DIMITRIS RAPIDIS BY ALAADDIN F. PAKSOY
34 Using the Device of a Treaty 66 EURASIA REVIEW
to Control Corporations? Russian Government's
BY DR. JEAN-PAUL GAGNON "Selective" Anti-corruption
38 CAUCASUS REVIEW Campaign
From “Dublin to Baku”: in the Energy Sector
Future Scenarios on EU’s BY DR. ZURAB GARAKANIDZE
policies towards Black Sea
72 GLOBAL CITY ANALYSIS
Region
BEIJING
BY ZAUR SHIRIYEV
“Humanistic city”
44 Azerbaijan and the Iran Crisis: BY FATİH EREN
Stuck in the Middle 50 80 RECENT BOOKS
BY ALEX JACKSON
WORLD STORIES | BY AKSEL ERSOY
The Egyptian cabinet called an emergency meeting after 74 people were killed and hun-
02.02.2012 | Egypt
dreds more injured in clashes between spectators from rival teams at a football match in
the Egyptian city of Port Said. There was also violence at a game in Cairo. The police came under sharp criticism for fail-
ing to stop the trouble.
20.01.2012 | Taiwan Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected as Taiwan’s president, defeating Tsai Ing-wen, the country’s
first female presidential candidate, in a closely fought election. Mr Ma has worked to im-
prove Taiwan’s relationship with China and used his first term to strengthen the countries’ economic ties. His party, the
Kuomintang, also retained its control of the legislature.
13.01.2012 | Scotland
A war of words erupted between David Cameron, the British prime minister, and Alex
Salmond, the first minister of Scotland. Mr Cameron said that Mr Salmond’s plan to hold
a referendum on Scottish independence should be held sooner rather than later, and that it should contain a simple in-
or-out question. Mr Salmond told him to butt out.
05.01.2012 | Hungary Concerns mounted over the state of democracy in Hungary as tens of thousands took to
the streets of Budapest to protest against a new constitution. Critics say the document
entrenches the power of the ruling Fidesz party at the expense of formerly independent institutions. European officials
said that they would not return to Hungary to resume financial-aid talks until the government withdraws a law that
increases state influence over the central bank.
17.12.2011 | North Korea Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s dictator since 1994, died on December 17th of a presumed
heart attack in one of his palaces, though the official version said he died of overwork on
a train. The nuclear-tipped regime quickly fell behind Kim’s third son, Kim Jong Un, thought to be in his late 20s. So,
too, did China, the North’s crucial ally. Kim Jong Un’s uncle, Jang Song Taek, may prove to be a powerful regent in the
hereditary dictatorship. Kim’s funeral was a Communist set piece of loyalty and emotion, though most North Koreans
remain wretched.
28.12.2011 | Pakistan
Pakistan rejected the findings of an investigation by the Pentagon into an American air
strike on the Afghan border in November that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. The report
blamed “inadequate co-ordination” by American and Pakistani officers for the incident. But in a letter to the American
Congress, Pakistan said the episode “has raised suspicions in the rank and file of the Pakistan army that it was a pre-
Compiled by Aksel Ersoy from Different World News Sources
meditated attack”.
22.12.2011 | Iraq A dozen bombs went off across Baghdad on December 22nd, a few days after the last
American troops left Iraq. Sectarian animosity rose again, with the prime minister, Nuri al
-Maliki, a Shia, saying that the country’s vice-president, Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni, had been charged with terrorism.
24.11.2011 | Libya Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, the son and heir of Muammar Qaddafi, was caught in south-
ern Libya. So, separately, was the late dictator’s intelligence chief, Abdullah al-Senussi.
Both are wanted by the International Criminal Court, which has apparently agreed that they might face trial in Libya.
22.11.2011 | Spain Spain’s general election was won by the opposition centre-right People’s Party, led by
Mariano Rajoy. The ruling Socialists suffered their worst rout at the polls since the return
of democracy to Spain in 1975. Mr Rajoy has an absolute majority, but will not take office for a month. Although he
promises austerity and reform, nervous markets sent Spanish bond yields higher.
4 POLITICAL REFLECTION | MARCH - APRIL - MAY 2012
Quotes Notable
Economic Crisis in the
By Rahman Dağ
In Palestinian-Israeli Conflict, both parties have
blamed their counterparts for the deadlock in peace
talks. These reciprocal accusations were followed by
a statement performed by US defence secretary Leon
Panetta, in a speech at a Brookings Institution forum
in Washington.
member states of EU He first of all called Israel to "reach out and mend
induced the major pow- fences" with Turkey, Egypt and other security part-
er of the Union to take ners in the Middle East by exactly saying that “For
several measurement. In example, Israel can reach out and mend fences with
January, 2012, a summit those who share an interest in regional stability countries like Turkey and Egypt, as
on the new EU treaty was negotiated. The well as Jordan.”
picture at the end of the submit, was best In his speech, he also invited Israel to resume the peace negotiations with Palestini-
described by French President Nicolas Sar- ans by articulating that “Just get to the damned table”.
kozy. He told French newspaper Le Monde
In the last quarter of 2011, the US president, Barak
that he and German Chancellor Angela Mer-
Obama declared that “after nearly nine years,
kel 'did everything' to convince Britain to
America’s war in Iraq will be over.” and in Decem-
join the new EU treaty, adding that 'there
ber, the US military forces left Iraq. Since three
are now clearly two Europes'.
months, unfortunate diplomatic tensions among
In a conference on the Iraqi groups and armed attacks in the region di-
anniversary of establish- rected the arrows towards neighbouring countries.
ment of Mahabad Kurdish In an interview with Prof. Dr. Ahmet Davutoglu, the
Republic in Iran in 1945, Foreign Minister of Turkey replied the question of
the president of Kurdistan that “Scenarios stating that there are an alignment
Regional Government, Mesut Barzani of Tehran-Damascus-Baghdad against Turkey are
states that “Today, realities revealed put into words in certain areas. Do you think there
that solution of Kurdish question has to is polarizations in the region?.
be in peaceful ways.... Every inch of Kurdi- His response was that “no such thing is in question....Unfortunately, there might be
stan has its own features and all of them groups who want to prepare a suitable ground for either denominational or regional
have the right of deciding on their own polarizations.... Let me say it clearly, there are some groups who want to launch a
future. cold war in the region. We are determined to prevent a regional cold war. ...”
The Greater Picture of the World Politics
On the one hand:
Following tightening Western sanctions, Iran threats the western states with the closing down the Strait of
Hormuz from which a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through. Thereupon, the US sent its aircraft carri-
er, USS John C. Stennis and another carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, which were entered the Gulf. Vice
Adm. Mark Fox, commander of the 5th Fleet, states that the Navy has “built a wide range of potential op-
tions to give the president” and “ready today” to confront any hostile action by Tehran.
In addition, The UK Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond has said that an escalation of a dispute with Iran
could see Britain sending military reinforcements to the Gulf. Hereby, the UK has sent its HMS Daring De-
stroyer to the Strait of Hormuz.
On the other hand,
As a long-planned mission, Moscow is deploying warships at its base in the Syrian port of Tartus, which consists of three vessels led by
the heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser. Admiral Kravchenko stated that. “But today, no one talks about possible military clashes, since
an attack on any Russian ship would be regarded as a declaration of war with all the consequences.”
In addition, The destroyer Shahid Qandi and its supply vessel Kharg and one more warship have entered the Mediterranean Sea without
clearance of destination. Reuters quoted a source at the Suez Canal authority as saying the vessels might be en route to Syria. Navy chief
Admiral Habibollah Sayari stated that the mission was a show of might and a "message of peace and friendship".
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 5
MIDDLE EAST REVIEW | BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM*
STAGING THE MOTIONS OF
‘RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT’
IN SYRIA?
O
rganised by the Arab League and in a wider humanitarian interventions landscape, the
attended by around 70 countries, analysis will focus on the two previous North Atlantic
the Friends of Syria Conference in Treaty Organization (NATO) interventions in Kosovo
Tunis on 24 February 2012 was prob- (1999) and Libya (2011).
ably one of the last chances for the resolution of the
Syrian crisis through diplomatic means or it may also The political crisis of Syria which started around a
be argued that it was actually staged to appear in year ago is now turning into one of the bloodiest
that way. Both sides of the argument could come up chapters of the so called ‘Arab Spring’ with a death
with strong justifications whether the Tunis confer- toll of over 8,000 people. After the popular revolts
ence was a genuine attempt to resolve the conflict in and regime changes in Tunisia and Egypt, the trans-
Syria peacefully. In order to look at what is happen- formation in Libya presented itself as a full blown
ing from a more objective perspective though, this civil war from March to October 2011. The uprising in
article will adopt the principles of ‘just war’ theory as Bahrain was crushed violently by the state with the
well as the criteria for Responsibility to Protect (R2P) military intervention assistance of the neighbouring
in its analysis of how the international response to Saudi Arabia and the political instability in Yemen
the Syrian crisis would likely to develop over the next still continues. Therefore, since the end of the Libya
few months. In order to contextualise the Syrian case conflict with the capture of Muammar Gaddafi on
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 6
MIDDLE EAST REVIEW | BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM
20th October, Syria has been dominating the interna- lution on Syria. This would sound very familiar for the
tional agenda with an increasing level of pressure students of international relations, as so many times
from the Western countries and their allies in before the international community has been at such
the region. The Tunis Conference was an important an impasse, i.e. the 1999 Kosovo crisis, in deciding an
episode in this process, as it clearly indicated that appropriate response strategy for the protection of
the ‘friends’ of Syria led by the United States (US), fundamental human rights in those countries affect-
United Kingdom (UK), France and Turkey are in fact, ed by armed conflict and violence. As a veto by one
no longer prepared to talk to President Bashar of UNSC permanent members (China, France, Russia,
al-Assad of Syria and they would prefer to show a UK and US) can block the process of passing a resolu-
clear sign of support to the Syrian opposition. The tion, the following stages of international responses
Foreign Minister of Turkey, Ahmet Davutoğlu, when to violent political crises often turn into an exercise of
he was asked the question of why the Syrian govern- circumventing such a diplomatic impasse in the UN
ment had not been invited to the Tunis Conference, system. Consequently, in such contexts the issues of
said that it was now time to make a distinction be- legality and legitimacy often become fiercely debat-
tween ‘victims’ and ‘instigators of the violence’. The ed issues. In the case of Libya for example, the UNSC
same sentiment was then echoed by the Foreign Resolution 1970 and particularly, Resolution 1973
Secretary William Hague. In other words, the Tunis were pivotal for preparing the ground for the NATO’s
conference underlined the gap between ‘friends’ of military intervention as they asked to ‘establish and
Syria and ‘supporters’ of the Assad regime such as enforce a no-fly zone over Libya’ and ‘employ all
Russia and China, which also did not take part at the means to protect civilians’. In other words, the mili-
Conference. tary intervention in Libya was ‘legal’ from an interna-
tional law perspective, which was not the case for the
The ‘supporters’ of Syria have so far managed to Kosovo intervention as NATO undertook that inter-
block a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Reso- vention without the permission of a UNSC resolution.
Ahmet Davutoğlu William Hague
7 POLITICAL REFLECTION | MARCH - APRIL - MAY 2012
MIDDLE EAST REVIEW | BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM
However, it was then argued that the military inter- would always pose question marks on the issue of
vention was legitimate, therefore necessary, because intentions for such a military action. Both the ‘friends’
of the humanitarian concerns to do with the well and ‘supporters’ of Syria have their own geo-political
being of Albanian Kosovars in the hands of Serbian and economic interests in the region, which would
security forces. However, the legality aspect is only bring their intentions into question, even if a possible
one of the key issues for military humanitarian inter- military intervention would have been undertaken
ventions and for a better understanding of the Tunis purely for humanitarian concerns. For example, in
Conference within the wider response process, it the case of Libya, although the military assistance
would be necessary to consider other criteria for re- was requested by the local rebel groups and there
voking R2P. were serious humanitarian concerns, there was also a
big question mark on whether the intervention
In brief, R2P is structured over the premise that was actually for the country’s rich oil and gas re-
sovereignty is not only a privilege for states but also serves. Moreover, for opting to take no action in the
responsibility that they need to face. For the case of Bahrain while thousands of Shia civilians were
protection of lives, R2P sets out responsibilities killed and tortured in the hands of security forces, but
that states have to their own citizens as well as becoming highly concerned for the well being of
responsibilities that all states and certain internation- civilians in Syria weakens the ‘friends’ of Syria’s argu-
al institutions such as UN have as members of ment further that their intentions are purely humani-
the international community. In 2005, the Report by
the International Commission on Intervention and
State Sovereignty offered a set of six criteria that In fact, if the humanitarian crisis starts to turn
should be considered for any form of military inter- into a major disaster with mass casualties and
vention. First, there should be a ‘just cause’ for the
displacement of civilians, then even Russia and
military intervention. In both Kosovo and Libya cases
this was a strong justification for the military re- China might start to find it too difficult to justi-
sponse. With the worsening humanitarian situation fy their position vis a vis their support to the
in Syria, particularly in the city of Homs, the ‘friends’ Assad regime.
of Syria would likely to argue that even without a
UNSC Resolution there is a legitimate ground for a
military intervention. In fact, if the humanitarian cri- tarian. Even if that is the case then there is an
sis starts to turn into a major disaster with mass casu- important question to do with double standards to
alties and displacement of civilians, then even Russia answer.
and China might start to find it too difficult to justify
their position vis a vis their support to the Assad re- It could also be argued that the third criterion of a
gime. military intervention needing to be the ‘final resort’ is
perhaps the main driver for diplomatic attempts be-
The second criterion, which is the ‘right intention’ for ing undertaken by the ‘friends’ of Syria. In other
military interventions, may be the most difficult one words, if a military intervention against Syria is un-
to justify and validate by the ‘friends’ of Syria. Within dertaken without the permission of UNSC, then there
the overall political complexities of the Middle East would be a strong argument for claiming that all
and a number of other pressing security issues and have been done to resolve the issue peacefully and
crises in the region such as the Iran’s nuclear capabili- having exhausted all means of diplomacy, a military
ties, protracted occupation of Palestine by Israel, intervention was the only option left to protect civil-
Kurdish independence aspirations in Iraq and Turkey, ians in Syria. The Tunis Conference demanded an
and presence of a wide range of strong non-state immediate ceasefire and humanitarian assessment,
armed groups such as the Hezbollah in Lebanon and used the threat of sanctions as a possible lever-
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 8
MIDDLE EAST REVIEW | BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM
age against the Assad regime. The next Friends of such a legal authority was missing, hence the argu-
Syria Conference will be held in Istanbul in May, and ment of legitimacy formed the backbone of justifica-
at that conference the tone of the threat is likely to tion for the military intervention. The Libya interven-
be much stronger. In fact, it would not be completely tion was based on two UNSC resolutions but the
unimaginable if the Istanbul Conference would backing of the Arab League was also imperative, es-
also serve the purpose of a final warning before pecially for having a stronger moral support and jus-
a military intervention. The international community tification. If ‘friends’ of Syria fail to pass a UNSC reso-
seems to have made a lip service to the ‘final lution for a military action, which is the most likely
resort’ criterion in both Kosovo and Libya. At scenario, then the Arab League’s blessing and sup-
the Rambouillet peace talks the demands on the port for such an intervention would become particu-
Milosevic’s regime in Serbia were so heavy handed larly important. At the Tunis Conference, Qatar which
that there were serious question marks over the has been playing a leading role in the Arab League
international community’s sincerity to resolve the actions in recent years, particularly in the case of Lib-
Kosovo crisis peacefully. In the Libya case, there was ya, already suggested that the situation in Syria de-
only a month between the two UNSC resolutions and mands the deployment of military means for the pro-
did not seem that the Western powers had much vision of humanitarian assistance. The future devel-
interest in talking to Gaddafi, as they suddenly re- opments with the Syrian opposition would also have
membered that he was a dictator and killed his own some critical impacts on the issue of legitimate au-
people for decades! Therefore, it would not be a total thority. At the moment it is polarized and fractured.
surprise if this turns out to be the case with Syria too Two of its main actors which are Syrian National
and what is seen as a quest for finding a diplomatic Council (led by Burhan Ghalioun) and Free Syrian
solution is probably no more than a grand staging Army (led by Riyaad al-Assad and primarily support-
exercise for laying grounds for a military interven- ed by Turkey) are calling for a military intervention.
tion. Meanwhile, National Coordination Committee which
is formed by left wing and Kurdish parties calls for
Undertaking a military intervention on the basis of a the continuation of dialogue with the Assad regime
decision made by a legitimate authority such as and did not participate to the Tunis Conference. In
UNSC is the fourth criterion. In the case of Kosovo fact, it was interesting to note that one of the key
9 POLITICAL REFLECTION | MARCH - APRIL - MAY 2012MIDDLE EAST REVIEW | BY PROF. ALPASLAN ÖZERDEM
points made by Burhan Ghalioun was a promise for look like is another key consideration to be born in
the recognition of Kurdish identity in the post-Assad mind by such a military intervention. In the case of
era. Libya, the intervention came to an end with the cap-
ture of Gaddafi and control of the country by the up-
The remaining two criteria which are the use of rising leadership. If a similar scenario does not hap-
‘proportional means’ and ‘reasonable prospects’ pen in Syria due to the complex ethnic, religious and
for meeting the humanitarian objectives of the sectarian structures of the country and the way the
military intervention would likely to be of a less Ba’athist regime has kept a tight control over them
concern for ‘friends’ of Syria for the time being. since 1960s, the post-Assad period could also turn
However, as was the case with Kosovo and Libya, the into an Iraq-type civil war.
use of an air campaign, naval blockade and military
assistance to rebels are likely to be the main means In summary, there would be three possible scenarios
of a future military intervention in Syria. Therefore, it based on the assumption that the Syrian crisis could
would be likely that such a military intervention only be resolved through fighting and intervention
would cause a high level of collateral damage in that would be unfolding over the next few months.
terms of civilian lives and infrastructure. However, First, the Syrian uprising would win the fighting
having the support of internal opposition groups against the Assad regime without needing an
would likely to reduce the pressure over this issue. external military intervention. Second, ‘friends’
The neighbouring countries such as Turkey would of Syria would manage to convince China and Russia
also likely to be generous and open in providing as- to pass a UNSC resolution to undertake a military
sistance to Syrian refugees as a result of such a mili- intervention (i.e. Libya). Third, the military
tary campaign. intervention is undertaken without the permission
Whether such a military intervention would bring an
end to the humanitarian crisis in Syria is the final The key issue with this criterion is that the mili-
question to be considered here. The key issue with tary intervention would need to present a con-
this criterion is that the military intervention would
need to present a convincing case for achieving its vincing case for achieving its set objectives for
set objectives for the protection of civilians and deliv- the protection of civilians and delivery of hu-
ery of humanitarian assistance. In other words, how manitarian assistance.
realistic is it that a military intervention in Syria
would bring the fighting to a halt and be able to deal
with the humanitarian protection of civilians? The of UNSC (i.e. Kosovo). As our preceding discussions
issue here is more than capability as it is important to indicated each of these three scenarios would
remember that such military interventions could mean significant differences for the above men-
sometime worsen humanitarian crises further, as was tioned R2P criteria. A final possible scenario would
the case in Kosovo. After the NATO’s bombing started obviously be in terms of the Assad regime gaining a
in March 1999, hundreds of thousands of civilians full control of the country again and managing to
from Kosovo fled to the neighbouring countries of eradicate any justification for a military intervention
Albania and Macedonia. Moreover, such a military on humanitarian grounds. However, in relation to the
intervention could easily be entangled in the com- other three scenarios this looks like the least likely
plexity of local and regional politics. The regional one.
‘supporters’ of Syria such as Iran and Lebanon (the
Hezbollah) might also get involved in the conflict, Note:
which would create huge regional and international * Al pasl an Özerd em is Professor of Peacebuild-
ramifications. Finally, how the exit strategy would ing at Coventry University.
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 10ISSN: 2041-1944
ISSN: 2041-1944
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Ulrich’s
Ulrich’s Periodicals
Periodicals DirectoryDirectoryISSN: 2041-1944 Editor-in-Chief: Ozgur TUFEKCI King’s College London, UK Managing Editor: Husrev TABAK University of Manchester, UK Book Review Editor: Kadri Kaan RENDA King’s College London, UK Associate Editors: Emel AKCALI, Dr. Central European University, Hungary | Mitat CELIKPALA, Assoc.Prof. Kadir Has University, Turkey Bayram GUNGOR, Prof. Karadeniz Technical University, Turkey Editorial Board: Sener AKTURK, Dr. Harvard University, USA | William BAIN, Dr. Aberystwyth University, UK |Alexander BELLAMY, Prof. University of Queensland, Australia | Richard BELLAMY, Prof. University College London, UK | Andreas BIELER, Prof. University of Nottingham, UK | Pınar BILGIN, Assoc. Prof. Bilkent University, Turkey | Ken BOOTH, Prof. Aber- ystwyth University, UK | Stephen CHAN, Prof. SOAS, University of London, UK | Nazli CHOUCRI, Prof. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA | John M. DUNN, Prof. University of Cambridge, UK | Kevin DUNN, Prof. Hobart and William Smith Colleges, USA | Mine EDER, Prof. Bogazici University, Turkey | Ertan EFEGIL, Assoc. Prof. Sakarya Uni- versity, Turkey | Ayla GOL, Dr. Aberystwyth University, UK | Stefano GUZZINI, Prof. Uppsala Universitet, Sweden | Elif Ince HAFALIR, Assist. Prof. Carnegie Mellon University, USA | David HELD, Prof. London School of Economics, LSE, UK | Raymond HINNEBUSCH, Prof. University of St Andrews, UK | Naim KAPUCU, Assoc. Prof. University of Central Florida, USA | Fahri KARAKAYA, Prof. University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, USA | Abdulhamit KIRMIZI, Dr. SOAS, University of London, UK | Cécile LABORDE, Prof. University College London, UK | Ziya ONIS, Prof. Koc University, Turkey | Alp OZERDEM, Prof. Coventry University, UK | Oliver RICHMOND, Prof. University of St Andrews, UK | Ian TAYLOR, Prof. University of St Andrews, UK | Murat TUMAY, Dr. Selcuk University, Turkey | Talat ULUSSEVER, Assist. Prof. King Fahd University, Saudi Arabia | Ali WATSON, Prof. University of St Andrews, UK | Stefan WOLFF, Prof. Uni- versity of Birmingham, UK | Hakan YILMAZKUDAY, Assist. Prof. Temple University, USA | International Advisory Board: Yasemin AKBABA, Assist. Prof. Gettysburg College, USA | Mustafa AYDIN, Prof. Kadir Has University, Turkey | Ian BACHE, Prof. University of Sheffield, UK | Mark BASSIN, Prof. University of Birmingham, UK | Mehmet DEMIRBAG, Prof. University of Sheffield, UK | Can ERBIL, Assist. Prof. Brandeis University, USA | Stephen Van EVERA, Prof. Mas- sachusetts Institute of Technology, USA | John GLASSFORD, Assoc. Prof. Angelo State University, USA | Bulent GOKAY, Prof. Keele University, UK | Burak GURBUZ, Assoc. Prof. Galatasaray University, Turkey | Tony HERON, Dr. University of Sheffield, UK | John M. HOBSON, Prof. University of Sheffield, UK | Jamal HUSEIN, Assist. Prof. Angelo State University, USA | Murat S. KARA, Assoc. Prof. Angelo State University, USA | Michael KENNY, Prof. University of Sheffield, UK | Gamze G. KONA, Dr. Foreign Policy Analyst, Turkey | Scott LUCAS, Prof. University of Birmingham, UK | Christoph MEYER, Dr. King’s College London, UK | Kalypso NICOLAIDIS, Prof. University of Oxford, UK | Bill PARK, Mr. King’s College London, UK | Jenik RADON, Prof. Columbia University, USA | Ibrahim SIRKECI, Prof. Re- gent’s College London, UK | Claire THOMAS, Dr. University of Sheffield, UK | Brian WHITE, Prof. University of Sheffield, UK | M. Hakan YAVUZ, Assoc. Prof. University of Utah, USA | Birol YESILADA, Prof. Portland State Universi- ty, USA |
EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU*
PERFECT NUCLEAR STORM
WAITING TO HAPPEN IN
RUSSIA’S NORTHWEST REGION
T
he large-scale nuclear disaster at dicted that an accident involving nuclear infrastruc-
Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear tures in that region could easily be more devastating
Power Plant has acted as a wakeup than that at Chernobyl in Ukraine in April 1986.
call for the international community,
engendering deep reflection on the consequences of The North West Region, which includes the Mur-
using nuclear energy. The maintenance and servicing mansk and Archangelsk Oblasts (provinces), the No-
of nuclear plants either currently in operation or un- vaya Zemlya Territory (Okrug) and the White, Barents
der construction, and the dismantling of those al- and Kara Seas, contains the largest concentration of
ready decommissioned or on their way to being shut fissile, radioactive and nuclear materials for either
down, are issues of heated debate, as are possible military or civilian application found anywhere on the
future nuclear projects. planet.
A crucial issue for European Union members, the Ci vilian Nuclear Energy fleet
United States, China and the whole world, is how to
ensure appropriate maintenance practices and tech- Polyarny Zori, a city on the outermost western edge
nology of Russia’s nuclear waste disposal sites, partic- of the Murmansk Fjord, is the largest energy produc-
ularly those in the north west of the country. It is pre- ing locality in the Murmansk Oblast. The city is home
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 14EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
to the Kola Power Plant (NPP-1), whose 4 PWRs These emergency repairs in the month of February, in
(pressurized water reactors) were built in two phases. only eleven days, are sad testimony to the fact that
Phase 1 went online in 1973-74, with two reactors of the Russian nuclear energy industry is in dire shape
the VVER-440/230 type –Russia’s first generation of and simply unfit to be operated with any degree of
PWR reactors using LEU (low-enriched uranium), with reliability. As reactor equipment gets older its perfor-
an enrichment level ranging from 2 to 4.95%. Phase 2 mance is reduced, making it prone to cause more and
came online in March 1981 and October 1984, with more incidents, especially given the apparently low
the commissioning of the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors standard of maintenance, which is not undertaken
of the improved VVER 440/213 type. Reactors of regularly anyway. Such a ticking time bomb not only
the previous VVER-440/230 type (phase 1) were creates additional expenditures and destabilizes sup-
designed to have an operational lifespan of 30 years plies of energy but is a public health hazard waiting
and scheduled to be decommissioned in 2003 and to happen. If repairs are hastily performed in order to
2004 by the Russian Nuclear Energy State Corpora- bring power generation back on line, and the quality
tion (Rosatom). However, the Russian government, of this work is substandard as a result of this time
under a cloud of controversy, extended their pressure, more human errors and “glitches” are likely
operational lifespan for 10 years in 2003, despite the to occur – and with increased frequency. After each
high number of accidents seen around that time1. nuclear incident, the Russian nuclear authorities say
During the first two weeks of February 2011, for in- that nothing of significance transpired. However, in
stance, five out of Russia’s 32 operational reactors its report on the Most Dangerous Reactors, released
had to be shut down for emergency repairs and at in 1995, the U.S. Department of Energy ranked the
least a dozen leaks of contaminated material were Kola Nuclear Power Plant as the most dangerous in
recorded2. Russia3.
15 POLITICAL REFLECTION | MARCH - APRIL - MAY 2012EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
The antiquated technology of the KPP-1 and rising active waste (RW), including its storage and pro-
domestic energy demand in the region have prompt- cessing.
ed the Kremlin to build a new atomic complex,
the Kola Power Plant 2 (NPP-2), located eight kilome- Finally, Rosatom owns five service and storage
ters from NPP-14. The Ministry of Energy plans to in- vessels especially designed for dealing with radioac-
stall at NPP-2 four next-generation reactors (VVER- tive waste (RW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF), and
620), a cross between the VVER-440 and KLT-40 mod- stationed at the Atomflot base, only two kilometers
els. The VVER-620 reactors represent the cutting from residential districts. The service ships “Imandra”
edge of Russian nuclear engineering. They are a new and “Lotta” are used to store for six months – in
generation of nuclear reactors designed during a dry, water-cooled containers – spent fuel from
three-year joint project conducted by Russian Minis- the Rosatom’s civil ice-breakers. Imandra and Lotta
try of Atomic Energy and the German companies can store 1,530 (i.e. fuel from six reactors) and 4,080
Siemens and Gesellschaft fur Reaktorsicherheit (i.e. fuel from 12 reactors) fuel assemblies respective-
(Association for Plant and Reactor Safety). They oper- ly. However, since 1992 both service ships have
ate as pressurized water reactors (PWR), using 90% been filled to capacity. Another problem is that just
enriched uranium-235 fuel derived from marine over one third (35%) of the fuel assemblies stored
plants. Each of these medium-power reactors will in Imandra and Lotta contain zirconium surrounding
produce approximately 700 MWe of energy. The KPP-
2 should be operational by 2018\2019, which will
allow for the shutdown of the two old reactors of the The city of Murmansk is the most important
KPP-1 facility. strategic area in Russia’s North West territory.
Due to the warm North Atlantic drift, the city’s
In addition to grave concerns over the old NPP-1, the
Murmansk Oblast is also confronted with the menace ports and the southern half of the Barents Sea
of another potential nuclear accident of significant remain completely ice-free all year round,
amplitude and enormous environmental cost: The which makes them more easily navigable.
icebreaker fleet stationed in the port of the city of
Murmansk.
the plutonium fuel. Such fuel assemblies cannot
Russia possesses six nuclear-powered civil icebreak- be reprocessed. The vessel “Volodarsky” (1929, 96x15
ers (the “Yamal,” “Russia,” “Arktika,” “Taimyr,” m, 5,500 t) is used for keeping solid radioactive
“Vaigach” and “Sovetsky Soyuz”) which are equipped waste (SRW) and has a storage area of 300 m3.
to carry out a range of operations5. Russia’s fleet The tanker “Serebryanka” (1975, 102x12 m, 4,000 t)
comprises two types of icebreakers: Sea-going-class is used for collecting liquid radioactive waste
icebreakers, which can operate in high waves, (LRW) and its transmission to Atomflot. Finally, the
and shallow draught icebreakers, which can enter “Lepse,” a service vessel moored in a dockyard in the
rivers. A third type of icebreaker is basically a nuclear- Kola Bay near Murmansk, was built more than 70
powered container ship. In total, 14 PWR reactors years ago for the refueling of the first nuclear-
of the KLT-40 type, loaded with HEU (90%), propel powered icebreaker, “Lenin,” and later for “Arktika”
these icebreakers. The Murmansk Shipping Company and “Sibir,” the next generation of icebreakers. In
(MSC) operated all these vessels until August 1988 it was retired from active use, although it still
2008, when the fleet was handed over to the contains two storage tanks for SNF materials from
Nuclear Energy State Corporation (Rosatom)6. The icebreakers.
federal state-owned unitary enterprise Atomflot,
based in Murmansk, has since been authorized to In July 2011 the Fincantieri shipyard, an Italian
run the nuclear-powered vessels and deal with radio- firm, handed over to Atomflot the multipurpose con-
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 16EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
tainer ship Rossita, intended for shipments of SNF materials and secret nuclear submarine bases. In the
and materials from dismantled nuclear submarines Former Soviet Union (FSU), Semipalatinsk in Kazakh-
from the Kola Peninsula and the White Sea – former stan and Novaya Zemlya in the Arctic were the two
Russian Navy bases in North-West Russia – to Mur- major fields for nuclear test explosions. Ninety three
mansk7. percent of the total power of these explosions –
which were basically nuclear weapons tests – in the
The Andreeva Bay “Cemetery” on the No- FSU was registered on Novaya Zemlya and the Kara
vaya Zemlya Sea. These two areas were called by the Soviet au-
thorities the Northern Nuclear Test Range, an entity
The city of Murmansk is the most important strategic established in 1954. In all, 132 nuclear tests – explo-
area in Russia’s North West territory. Due to the warm sions – were conducted on Novaya Zemlya between
North Atlantic drift, the city’s ports and the southern 1950 and October 24, 1990, including 88 atmospheric
half of the Barents Sea remain completely ice-free all (either close to the land or sea surface), 39 under-
year round, which makes them more easily naviga- ground and 3 underwater in the Kara Sea. The total
ble. Thanks to the influence of the Gulf Stream, the power of these explosions was 265 Megatons (Mt)8.
Barents Sea does not freeze and the majestic fjords at They included the tests of “Tsar Bomba,” the largest
the entrance of the White Sea are also accessible year hydrogen bomb ever detonated on October 30, 1961,
round without difficulty. For these reasons the North- which had a force of 58 megatons or 58,000,000 tons
ern Fleet, formerly known as the Soviet Fleet of the of TNT. In comparison, the atomic bomb dropped on
Northern Seas, is the largest and most important of Hiroshima had a force of 20,000 tons of TNT. For
the former Soviet fleets, and has ever increasing stra- good measure, the seabed of the Kara Sea is estimat-
tegic importance for Russia. ed to contain about 11,000 sunken containers of radi-
oactive waste, a dozen dumped nuclear reactors and
Since the 1950s the Kola Peninsula has witnessed a an unknown number of defective nuclear-propelled
proliferation of shipyards, storage sites, decommis- submarines.
sioning complexes, facilities for reprocessing nuclear
Following the collapse of the Soviet system in De-
cember 1991 the Russian Federation inherited a little
less than 200 nuclear powered submarines. At that
time a significant number of these had been in use
for about 30 years. During the first half of the 1990s
the Kremlin decided to remove from active service all
the older submarines, i.e. about 140 vessels, as part
of downsizing the military budget. Over the follow-
ing decade Russian leaders made great efforts to
dismantle these rotting submarines and remove their
nuclear fuel. However in the last 20 years the Russian
Navy has been able to separate out and store the
reactor compartments of only a few dozen subma-
rines. At present all secured reactor compartments,
including whole submarines, are stored and tied up
in three traditional storage sites:
1) Andreeva Bay in the Zapadnaya Litsa fjord on the
Kola Peninsula. Reportedly, the site hosts 21,000
spent fuel rods, equivalent to approximately 90 nu-
17 POLITICAL REFLECTION | MARCH - APRIL - MAY 2012EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
clear reactors, as well as thousands of tons radioac- All the mentioned cities, districts and military bases
tive liquid waste stored in decrepit stainless-steel on the Kola Peninsula and Novaya Zemlya have radi-
containers filled to capacity since the 1990s. Three oactivity levels a thousand times higher than the
dozen of these containers are leaking radioactive normal dose a human being can tolerate. Even three
material. to five kilometers away from these places levels of
radiation are hundreds of times above the normal
2) Nerpichya Port, on the Zapadnaya Litsa’s and represent extremely serious risks to human
east coast.,The site is home to 6 SSBNs (Ship health and the environment. Over the years entire
Submersible Ballistic missile Nuclear [powered] villages have been evacuated and their populations
vessels), better known as Typhoon ballistic relocated in urban centers nearby. In the 1980s about
missile submarines (of 25,000 tons), which still 30,000 people lived in the Gremikha region; however,
have on board torpedo tubes designed to handle since the breakup of the Soviet Union the population
and launch missiles. Each Typhoon has two has decreased to about 10,000, due to economic
pressurized water reactors of the OK650b type hardship and ongoing substantial reductions in the
which use 20-45% enriched uranium-235 fuel. Each Russian military program9. Some cities have been
vessel’s weapon system is composed of 20 submarine closed to both foreigners and citizens of the Russian
-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) which can carry Federation. Access to these is restricted to the mili-
10 Multiple Independently targetable Reentry tary or duly authorized technicians and workers.
Vehicles (MIRV), each able to produce a yield of 21
kilotons.
3) Gremikha Base, east of the Kola Peninsula. ...cities, districts and military bases on the Ko-
The second largest onshore storage facility for la Peninsula and Novaya Zemlya have radioac-
the Russian Northern Fleet’s spent nuclear fuel,
tivity levels a thousand times higher than the
Gremikha contains around 800 spent-fuel assemblies.
Reportedly, spent fuel from six liquid metal reactors normal dose a human being can tolerate.
(LMR), with 90% HEU are stored at this site, the
largest for storing decommissioned submarines.
The spent fuel comes entirely from the deactivated Accident Risks and Conservation Programs
Alpha class submarines and, apparently, cannot
be reprocessed with today’s technology. LMRs The volume of radioactive material on the Kola Pen-
have to be treated more carefully because they insula is equivalent to about 150 nuclear reactors and
used higher enrichment levels, probably weapons- thousands of tons of depleted uranium and plutoni-
grade uranium. The banks of the Gremikha base um. There are nine radioactive waste (RW) and spent
serve as a “parking lot” for several old-generation nuclear fuel (SNF) storage facilities. In addition many
submarines now abandoned and in a dire state of shipyards, where civilian ships and military subma-
repair: rines are built, assembled and repaired, are located
on the Kola Peninsula, particularly in Murmansk,
4 November class vessels, for a total of 8 VM-1 Severodvinsk (“Sevmash” and “Zvezdochka”) and
PWR loaded with 21% HEU; Polyarny. These shipyards are an integral segment of
1 Hotel Class vessel with 2 VM-A PWRs loaded the Russian Military Industrial Complex but also more
with 21% HEU; closely connected to the Northern Fleet. In addition
8 Victor I\Victor II class vessels, for a total of 8 to the threat of radioactive pollution, the level of
OK-300 VM-4 PWR with 21% HEU; “conventional” pollution is also very high in that re-
4 Victor III class vessels, for a total of 8 OK300 gion, principally due to airborne chemical pollution
VM-4 PWR with 21% HEU. from the mining, steel and metallurgical industries.
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 18EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
Unfortunately Russia has a historically dismal record (23%) of the country’s total energy production, and
of nuclear accidents and has never adequately approximately one third (32%) of European Russia,
demonstrated a capacity to cope efficiently and ef- by 202010. To achieve this objective, the focus will be
fectively with environmental emergencies. The risks placed on the development of fast neutron reactors
of accidents on the Kola Peninsula are considerable (FNRs), the Generation IV component of Rosatom’s
and these could directly affect the Arctic and Scandi- future nuclear energy policy. FNRs use uranium 238
navian countries. The next radioactive toxic cloud (U-238) as fuel instead of the uranium 235 (U-235)
formed on the Kola Peninsula might easily drift over commonly used by conventional reactors, such as
Central Europe and the northern coast of Canada and PWRs. The 880 MWe capacity BN-800, a FNR reactor
even reach the United States. expected to enter into operation in 2014, offers, ac-
cording to Rosatom, “natural radiation safety in all
The dreadful consequences of such an accident credible accidents caused by internal or external im-
would be disastrous for Russia’s future economic pacts, including sabotage, with no need for people
development. Moreover, it would inflict enormous evacuation.”11
damage, not only on humans and the environment,
but also on the reputation of a country which has Conceptually, the refueling process for these reactors
made its civilian nuclear power industry the spear- is more cost-efficient and simple to operate. They use
head of its export and technology development. In only about 1 or 2% of the natural or depleted urani-
spite of the many irregularities and deficiencies in the um required by a comparable PWR reactor (http://
nuclear reactor technology, Russian reactors are still www.nikiet.ru/eng/structure/mr-innovative/
in great demand on the international market. brest.html). FNRs will permit Russia to produce more
civilian energy with less fissile material and this ad-
In 2006 Rosatom announced that it wants nuclear vantage will allow for the further use of the depleted
produced energy to account for about one forth uranium now stockpiled as a result of the disman-
tling of nuclear submarines
and warheads under the
“new” START (Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty) agreement
between the Russia and the
United States. This transfor-
mation is part of the Mega-
ton to Megawatts Program
as first initiated by the two
nuclear superpowers in 1993,
which aimed to kill “two
birds with one stone,” i.e. to
both proceed with disarma-
ment and bring down the
consumption and global
price of non-renewable ura-
nium, a resource now on the
verge of being monopolized
by China12. However, the U.S.
-Russian agreement will ex-
pire in 2013 and will have to
be renegotiated.
19 POLITICAL REFLECTION | MARCH - APRIL - MAY 2012EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
Economies made by introducing FNRs have been the one mandated by the Japanese government. The
earmarked for the military. The plan is to replace Rus- disaster has been recognized as a perfect storm with
sia’s Soviet-era nuclear submarines (the Typhoon the meltdown of three Japanese nuclear reactors,
class) with SSN (Ship Submersible Nuclear) Yasen- each involving approximately 300 tons of uranium.
class attack submarines, also known as the Graney The event came as a surprise to many industry ex-
class and Severodvinsk class, by 2014. These new perts since it took place in such a technologically ad-
SSNs are also considered as a crucial tool for Russia vanced country, especially one that is on the cutting
to capture new arms markets. For instance, Russia is edge in nuclear and earthquake mitigation engineer-
waiting for the Indian Maritime Force (IMF) to exer- ing.
cise its right to enforce the Indo-Russian agreement
on the lease of a new Akula II class submarine, the Considering the huge amount of spent fuel and de-
SSN Nerpa. This 2005 deal is worth an estimated $1.8 pleted nuclear materials present on the Kola Peninsu-
billion to Russia. After some problems with the reac- la, the poor state of maintenance on land-based stor-
tor cooling system, the Russia international News age sites, the decrepit infrastructure for the safe
Agency (RIA Novosti) quoted a Russian Navy Staff transport of spent fuel from naval bases and the ag-
admiral as saying, on March 16, 2011, that Russia will ing technology and increased possibilities for human
deliver the Nerpa to India by the end of this year.13
Since the 1990s the Kremlin has not paid much atten- ...agreements set up a fund to “improve the ca-
tion to the situation at the Kola Peninsula. The only
pability of the Russian Federation to comply
initiatives of significance taking place are the trilat-
eral agreements with Norway and the United States, with the requirements of the London Conven-
known as the “Murmansk Initiatives,” signed in 1996, tion that prohibit ocean dumping of low-level
and still in force. These agreements set up a fund to
liquid radioactive waste (LLRW)” and increase
“improve the capability of the Russian Federation to
comply with the requirements of the London Con- the pace of the construction of centers for the
vention that prohibit ocean dumping of low-level decommissioning of nuclear submarines.
liquid radioactive waste (LLRW)” and increase the
pace of the construction of centers for the decommis-
sioning of nuclear submarines.14 All in all, the invest- errors, the possible occurrence of an accident with
ment of several tens of millions of dollars still has not even far more negative outcomes than the one that
consistently improved the situation to an acceptable took place in Japan is not a far-fetched scenario.
level. In Murmansk, the site for refining and disposal Based on recent problems experienced at the Kola
of Liquid Radioactive Waste (LRW) has been working Power Plant (NPP-1), the situation on the ground
for many years now and it is still involved in cleaning should be monitored closely by the world’s leading
up what remains of the former floating technological countries and, particularly, by major European ener-
base “Lepse.” gy companies, as the nuclear reactors currently oper-
ational in Europe are very similar to those found in
The aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear power plant the KPP-1 plant and throughout the former USSR.
catastrophe in Japan resulted in the evacuation of all
residents living within a 20 km radius of the Japanese Despite the constant warnings of environmental
nuclear plant, which is located in the city of Daichi. In NGOs and European governments, the Kremlin con-
late April 2011, the United States, Australia and South tinues to invest colossal sums in the development of
Korea, for their part, urged their citizens to move a new generation of nuclear energy production and
from areas within 80 km of the crippled plant, an associated technology – as well as new in drilling and
evacuation zone which was substantially larger than mining projects – thus further aggravating the envi-
WWW.CESRAN.ORG/POLITICALREFLECTION 20EURASIA REVIEW | BY ASSOC. PROF. RICHARD ROUSSEAU
ronmental situation. Consequently, many Russian _Public/30/018/30018740.pdf
regions and neighboring countries are exposed to 6. Kireeva, Anna; Alimov, Rashid. (August 28, 2008).
the danger of uncontrolled nuclear energy chain re- Rosatom takes over Russia’s nuclear powered
actions. Finally, in light of the new battle for Arctic oil icebreaker fleet, Bellona. Retrieved from: http://
fields, the Russian government is motivated to reju- www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2008/
venate its nuclear programs and to rebuild its nuclear atomflot_torosatom
icebreaker fleet. When all things are considered, it is 7. Nuclear Icebreakers. (2011). Rosatom. Retrieved
clear that the Kola Peninsula – and the world as a from: http://www.rosatom.ru/wps/wcm/connect/
whole – will continue to be at high risk for many rosatom/rosatomsite.eng/about/activities/
years to come. nuclear_icebreakers/
8. Nuclear Explosions in the USSR: The North
Notes: Test Site. (December, 2004). Reference Material,
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and Chairman of the Department of Political Science Retrieved from: http://www-ns.iaea.org/
and International Relations at Khazar University in downloads/rw/waste-safety/north-test-site-
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asian geopolitics, international political economy and 9. Bohmer, Nils; Nikitin, Aleksandr; Kudrik, Igor; Nil-
globalization. sen, Thomas; McGovern, Michael H.; Zolotkov,
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1. Reistad, Ole, (April, 2006). Russian Nuclear Power lona Report Volume 3. Retrieved from: http://
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scram_stats site/resources/259d3d0047429ed6b0a1b0
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Soviet-Built Nuclear Reactors as High Risks, The 12. Podvig, Pavel. (July 23, 2008). The Fallacy of the
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