THE FUTURE OF PROTEIN - Alison Rabschnuk Director of Corporate Engagement - American Food Innovate Summit
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THE FUTURE
OF PROTEIN
Alison Rabschnuk
Director of Corporate Engagement
“Humanity now poses a threat to
the stability of the planet…
[This requires] nothing less than a new
global agricultural revolution.”
- Dr. Johan Rockström, The Lancet, 2019
Source: Nature/University of Oxford 2018
Source: Bioscience Journal 2017
Source: National Academy of Sciences 2016
Global Meat Production (t) Source: UN Food and Agriculture Organization / Our World in Data
Animal agriculture is “one of the most significant contributors
to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale
from local to global.”
– United Nations FAO (2006)
monocrops
Source: UN's Livestock’s Long Shadow, 2006
Animal agriculture is “a serious threat to global public health
that requires action across all government sectors and
society.”
– World Health Organization (2015)
Source: Antibiotics Overuse in Animal Agriculture: A Call to Action for Health Care Providers, 2015
How will we feed 10 billion people by 2050?
Sustainably Efficiently Safely
gfi.org
Plant-based meat Cultivated meat
Meat that looks, tastes, and Genuine animal meat comprised
feels like conventional meat of the same cell types arranged in
products, but is made entirely the same three-dimensional
from plants or fungi. structure as animal muscle tissue.
Photos courtesy of Impossible Foods and Aleph FarmsThe Good Food Institute We work as a force multiplier,
Accelerating the shift to a sustainable, healthy, and just food system bringing the expertise of our
through three key areas of work: departments to
the rest of the world.
Science and Technology
Advancing and open-sourcing the foundational science of plant-based
and cultivated meat, and helping innovators build successful companies
Corporate Engagement
Consulting with the world’s biggest food companies to help them
capitalize on opportunities in the rapidly growing plant-based market
UNITED STATES ISRAEL
BRAZIL EUROPE
Policy INDIA ASIA PACIFIC
Advocating for fair regulation of plant-based and cultivated meat and
lobbying for governmental investment in sustainable protein R&D
100+ staff in 6 countries• Syndicated retail sales data
• Retail rankings
• Restaurant rankings
• Consumer insights
• Primary consumer research
• Product marketing and positioning
• Innovation and R&D support
• Science and technology updates
• Merchandising strategies
• Policy briefings
• Industry connections
gfi.org
gfi.org | Page 14 | PageTHE GOOD FOOD CONFERENCE Accelerating the Marketplace for Alternative Proteins San Francisco, CA September 9 – 10, 2020 GOODFOODC ONFERENC E.C OM #GOODFOODC ONFERENC E
Plant-based meat Cultivated meat
Meat that looks, tastes, and Genuine animal meat comprised
feels like conventional meat of the same cell types arranged in
products, but is made entirely the same three-dimensional
from plants or fungi. structure as animal muscle tissue.
Photos courtesy of Impossible Foods and Aleph FarmsMost plant-based eaters not vegetarian/
vegan
of consumers regularly use
plant-based alternatives
16% such as almond milk, tofu,
and veggie burgers
of these consumers do
not consider
89% themselves vegan
or vegetarian
Source: The NPD Group/National Eating Trends, 2YE Feb. 2019 gfi.org | Page 17Veggie burger buyers also order meat
Consumers that ordered plant-based burgers at restaurants are also
ordering beef burgers and chicken during their other restaurant visits
Veggie burger buyers – other restaurant purchases include
(top entrees purchased)
1. Beef Burgers
2. Chicken Nuggets / Strips
3. Tacos / Burritos
4. Chicken Sandwiches
5. Pizza
Source: The NPD Group / Checkout Year Ending May ‘19 gfi.org | Page 18Plant-based consumers also buy animal based meat
“93% of the consumers in conventional
grocery stores that are buying a
Beyond Meat product are also putting
animal meat in their basket.”
“Over 95% of people who order the
Impossible burger regularly consume
animal products (i.e., aren’t vegan),
and that most are not strictly
vegetarian either."
Source: Source: CNBC, January 21, 2019; Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods gfi.org | Page 19Multiple drivers of alternative protein consumption Source: Rabobank 2019
Health is top motivation for plant-based meat purchase
Most important reasons for interest in Reasons for eating plant-based alternatives
trying plant-based meat products 2018
2018
70.0% 66% 60.0%
60.0% 49%
50.0%
50.0% 48%
44% 43% 40.0%
40.0% 31%
32% 30.0%
30.0% 22%
20.0% 18%
20.0%
10.0% 8%
10.0%
3%
0.0% 0.0%
Health benefits Environment Food security They’re healthier To eat less They’re trendy
meat/dairy
Animal welfare Interest in new Other To try something new They taste better
products
Source: Szejda, K., 2019; Datassential, 2018 gfi.org | Page 2160%
of U.S. adults want
more protein
in their diets, yet not everyone
wants to consume more meat to
achieve that goal.
Source: The NPD Group/SupplyTrack®, 12ME Dec 2019; Excluding Commercial Large Chains (250+ units)1975 1979 1985 1995 Morningstar Boca Foods Gardenburger Tofurky Farms Plant-based Plant-based Plant-based Plant-based burger burger burger meat
2009 2011 2013 2016 2017 2018 2019
Morningstar | Incogmeato
Gardein Quorn Beyond Beyond Beyond Boca Before the Butcher | Uncut
Frozen Quorn Meat Meat Meat Foods
plant-based Meatless Nestle | Awesome Burger & Grounds
Chicken Strips Beyond Beyond Boca
meat line burger Burger Sausage reformulation Impossible Foods | Grounds
Kroger | Simple Truth Plant-Based
Hormel | Happy Little Plants
Smithfield | Pure Farmland
Gardein | Ultimate Burger
Tyson | Raised & Rooted
Perdue | Chicken Plus
Don Lee Farms | Burger
Hormel | Applegate Blend Burger
Good Catch | Tuna
Lightlife | Plant-based meat linePlant-based market overview
Only products that are plant-based substitutes are included in this data. Inherently plant-based foods, such as
chickpeas and kale, are not included. There are 7 high-level categories:
Tofu and tempeh Plant-based meat Plant-based milk Plant-based eggs
“Other plant-based dairy” includes:
• Cheese
• Yogurt
• Ice cream and frozen novelty
• Butter
Plant-based meals Plant-based condiments Other plant-based • Creamers
and dressings dairy • Ready-to-drink beverages
• Dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces
gfi.org | Page 28U.S. retail sales of plant-based food are worth $5 billion
Total U.S. plant-based food market
$6b
$5.0b
$5b
$4.5b
$3.9b
$4b
Dollar sales
$3b
+11%
$2b +15%
$1b
$0b
2017 2018 2019
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-
2019 gfi.org | Page 29Plant-based milk is the most developed category billion
Total U.S. plant-based food dollar sales and dollar sales growth by category
2019
$2.4b 48%
$2.0b
$1.8b 36%
$1.4b
$1.2b 24%
Dollar sales
$ % chg YA
$939m
$0.6b $377m $128m 12%
+18%
$64m $10m
$0.0b 0%
-$0.6b -12%
Plant-based milk Other plant- Plant-based Plant-based Tofu and tempeh Plant-based Plant-based
based dairy meat meals condiments and eggs
dressings
Dollar sales $ % chg YA
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019 gfi.org | Page 30Plant-based milk has the greatest share of total market
Plant-based share by category
2019
16%
14%
12%
% share
8%
6% 5%
4%
4%
3%
1% 1%
0.2%
0%
Milk Butter Creamer Yogurt Ice cream and frozen Meat* Cheese Eggs
novelty
Note: Plant-based meat total retail share calculation includes estimated non-UPC meat counter sales to approximate total meat market value. SPINS
does not report non-UPC meat counter sales, which industry guidance states are approximately 50% of all meat sales. Given that UPC meat sales are
worth $41 billion, total meat sales can be estimated at $82 billion, making plant-based meat dollar sales worth 1.1% of the total meat market.
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 12-29-2019 gfi.org | Page 31U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat are worth $939 million
U.S. plant-based meat market
$1,200m
$939m
$900m $794m
$682m
Dollar sales
$600m
+18%
+16%
$300m
$0m
2017 2018 2019
Source: SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary), SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 104 weeks ending 12-29-2019 gfi.org | Page 32Manufacturing
Launch of a plant-
based product or ü ü ü ü ü ü
product line
Investment
Known investments in
a plant-based or
cultivated meat
ü û ü û û ü
company
Tyson CEO Noel White said he expects Tyson “to be a market leader in
alternative protein, which is experiencing double-digit growth and could
someday be a billion-dollar business for our company.”Tyson
“Today’s consumers are
seeking more protein
options so we’re creating
new products for the
growing number of people
open to flexible diets that
include both meat and
plant-based protein. For us,
this is about ‘and’ – not
‘or.’”
- Noel White, CEO of
Tyson Foods
gfi.org | Page 34Smithfield
“With this launch, we are bringing
together our expertise in creating
market-leading food products, our
organizational commitment to
sustainability and our deep
understanding of ‘flexitarian’ consumers
to deliver a broad variety of flavorful
plant-based protein choices that
consumers want and can afford at a
great value.”
- John Pauley, Chief Commercial
Officer, Smithfield Foods
gfi.org | Page 35Hormel
“We understand consumers across
a spectrum of lifestyles are
adopting more flexible attitudes and
behaviors. We intend to focus on all
the ways plants can help
consumers find alternatives in their
food routines.”
- Jim Splinter, Vice President of
Corporate Strategy, Hormel
Foods
gfi.org | Page 36Maple Leaf Foods
“This segment has surged since
we entered the space. We fully
expect this is where the majority
of the growth will reside in the
future.”
- Michael H. McCain, President
& CEO, Maple Leaf Foods
gfi.org | Page 37Source: FMI, “Power of Meat” (March 2019)
Dunkin’
9000 locations
Beyond Sausage Patty
McDonalds (test)
28 locations (Canada)
PLT w/ Beyond Meat
Subway
685 locations
Cumulative number of locations
Beyond Meatball Sub
Tim Hortons (test) Burger King
4000 locations 7330 locations
Beyond Sausage Patty Impossible
Whopper
Carl’s Jr.
TGI Friday’s A&W Canada 1100 locations
470 locations Beyond Famous Star
BurgerFi 925 locations
100 locations Beyond Burger Beyond Burger
Del Taco
Beyond Burger 580 locations
Beyond Crumbles
White Castle Red Robin
377 locations 570 locations
Impossible Slider Impossible Burger
2016 2017 2018 2019Plant-Based Protein Sales Grew 37% YOY
Pounds in Millions $ Sales in Millions
$224
$164
47
38 $118
32
+20% +21% +39% +37%
PCYA PCYA PCYA PCYA
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
Source: The NPD Group/SupplyTrack®, 12ME Dec 2019;
Excluding Commercial Large Chains (250+ units) 43Does this trend have staying power?
79% of millennials eat meat alternatives
● Repeat purchase rates are high
30% ● Plant-based has stayed on
eat meat alternatives every day
restaurant menus and gotten
increased advertising investment
50%
eat meat a few times per week ● Plant-based appeals to all
generations, but demand is off the
37% charts for Millennials & Gen Z
plan to buy more meat
alternatives next yearPlant-based burgers to grow 23% YOY next 2 yrs
Trend in Plant-Based Burgers
Monthly LB Volume
Growth Rate 1,936,330
CAGR 2017-2019
22.8%
Outlook
926,177 CAGR 2019-2021
Forecast with 23.1%
95% Confidence Intervals
May ’16 May ‘21
Dec ’19
Source: The NPD Group/SupplyTrack®, 12ME Dec 2019; Excluding Commercial Large Chains (250+ units)GFI’s predictions for the future of plant-based
● Milk was the first breakout category, showing the power of
adjacency
● Burgers are the second wave, demonstrating the power of meat
mimics
● 2020
○ Pork & beef sausage alternatives
○ Breakfast burritos, sandwiches, omelets, etc.
○ Mexican foods
○ Pizza toppings
○ Pasta (ground beef and meatballs)
○ Meatball subs
○ Chicken nuggets & tendersGFI’s predictions for the future of plant-based
Animal-based and plant-based meat comparison: dollar sales by animal-type
100%
Shellfish Turkey
Fish Analog (not specified)
80% Turkey
Pork Pork
% of total $ sales
60%
Chicken
Chicken
40%
20%
Beef Beef
0%
Animal-based meat Plant-based meat
Note: Animal-based meat dollar sales for year ending August 2018; plant-based meat dollar sales for year ending April 2019
Source: Nielsen custom defined data set, xAOC + WFM, 52 weeks ending 8/11/18; SPINSscan Natural and Specialty Gourmet (proprietary),
SPINSscan Conventional Multi Outlet (powered by IRI), 52 weeks ending 2019-Apr-21GFI’s predictions for the future of plant-based
● 2020 trend: Blended plant/animal protein
● Trends for 2021 & beyond
○ Plant-based filets: chicken, seafood, steaks, & chops
○ Plant-based eggs & cheese
● Increasingly, plant-based products will be unbrandedWe are going to see more plant-based ingredients
Operators won’t stock both animal butter (appeals to 90% of
population) AND plant-based butter (which appeals to 99% of
population), so they’ll just stock plant-based butter and
reformulate dishes accordingly
Kosher is a good example
o Less than 2% of Americans are Jewish, and only a minority
of Jews keep kosher
o More than 40% of packaged foods and beverages sold in
the United States are kosherOther alternative proteins
● Mushrooms & fungi
● Algae protein
● Cultivated meatü Price ü Labels ü Nutrition
Plant-based meat Cultivated meat
Meat that looks, tastes, and Genuine animal meat comprised
feels like conventional meat of the same cell types arranged in
products, but is made entirely the same three-dimensional
from plants or fungi. structure as animal muscle tissue.
Photos courtesy of Impossible Foods and Aleph Farms2019
?? Companies
2018
29 Companies
2017
17 Companies
Artemys
2016 Foods
8 Companies
2015*
5 Companies
AlphaMeats
Heuros PLANETARY FOODS
MeaTech
Source: GFI Startup Database, Crunchbase, manufacturer websitesStudies show that when compared with standard U.S. beef production practices, cultivated meat reduces: ü land use by >95% ü emissions by 74-87% ü nutrient pollution by 94%
Source: Bryant et al., 2019
ü Scale-up ü Cost ü Regulation
Access free resources at www.gfi.org @GOODFOODINST /THEGOODFOODINSTITUTE W W W. G F I . O R G
gfi.org/feedback alisonr@gfi.org
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