The IPCC and the Sixth Assessment cycle
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The IPCC and
the Sixth Assessment cycle
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle, during
UN body for assessing the science related to climate change. It which it will produce three Special Reports, a Methodology
was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization Report and the Sixth Assessment Report.
and United Nations Environment Programme to provide
policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis During its 43rd Session (Nairobi, April 2016), the Panel
of climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to produce a
for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC does not conduct its Special Report by 2018 on the impacts of global warming
own research. It identifies where there is agreement in the of 1.5º C above pre-industrial levels and related global
scientific community, where there are differences of opinion greenhouse gas emission pathways, and to prepare it in the
and where further research is needed. It is a partnership context of strengthening the global response to the threat
between scientists and policymakers and it is this that makes of climate change, sustainable development and efforts to
its work a credible source of information for policymakers. eradicate poverty.
IPCC assessments are produced according to procedures that At the same Session, the Panel decided to produce two
ensure integrity, in line with the IPCC’s overarching principles other Special Reports, namely one on climate change and
of objectivity, openness and transparency. IPCC reports are oceans and the cryosphere, and one on climate change,
policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive. desertification, land degradation, sustainable land manage-
ment, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial
Since 1988 the IPCC has produced five comprehensive ecosystems.
Assessment Reports and several Special Reports on specific
topics. IPCC has also produced Methodology Reports, which The Panel also decided to refine the 2006 IPCC Guidelines
provide practical guidelines on the preparation of greenhouse for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories in order to update
gas inventories for the inventory reporting requirements of and provide a sound scientific basis for future international
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on climate action especially under the Paris Agreement. The
Climate Change (UNFCCC). Methodology Report on this will be finalized in May 2019.
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was finalized between The Special Report on global warming of 1.5º C will be
2013 and 2014. Its key findings are: ready for the facilitative dialogue of the UNFCCC at the end
of 2018. The Sixth Assessment Report will be ready for the
first UNFCCC global stocktake to take place in 2023.
• Human influence on the climate system is clear
• The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe,
pervasive and irreversible impacts
• We have the means to limit climate change and build a
more prosperous, sustainable future
*
The Sixth Assessment cycle
Global warming of 1.5° C
October 2018
Special An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of
Reports 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels and related global green-
house gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening
the global response to the threat of climate change,
sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
Climate Change and Land:
August 2019
An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification,
land degradation, sustainable land management, food
security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
September 2019
Climate
2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for
May 2019
Methodology National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Report
Sixth Working Group I contribution
April 2021
The physical science basis
Assessment
Report
Working Group III contribution
July 2021 Mitigation of climate change
Working Group II contribution
October 2021 Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
Synthesis Report
April 2022
A conference on cities and special attention to cities in the Sixth
Cities Assessment Report with the intention of a Special Report on
Others climate change and cities in the Seventh Assessment Cycle
Several Expert Meetings and workshops are held to support the
Expert Meetings preparation of the Sixth Assessment Report. Reports of these
meetings are published as supporting materials
Outreach Communication and outreach of the IPCC process and its
Outreach findings
* Dates are subject to a change.
FAR: First Assessment Report MR: Methodology Report. 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC
Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
SAR: Second Assessment Report
SR15: Global Warming of 1.5° C, an IPCC special report on the
TAR: Third Assessment Report impacts of global warming of 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels and
related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of
AR4: Fourth Assessment Report
strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
AR5: Fifth Assessment Report sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
SRCCL: Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on
AR6: Sixth Assessment Report
climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable
UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in
terrestrial ecosystems
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
SROCC: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing
WMO: World Meteorological Organization ClimateFor more information please contact:
How the IPCC prepares its reports
Scoping Approval of Outline Nomination of authors
The outline is drafted and developed The Panel then Governments and observer
by experts nominated by governments approves the outline organizations nominate
and observer organizations experts as authors
Government and Expert Expert Review -
Review - 2nd Order Draft 1st Order Draft Selection of authors
The 2nd draft of the report and 1st draft Authors prepare a Bureaux select authors
of the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) 1st draft which is
is reviewed by governments and experts reviewed by experts
Final draft report Government review Approval & acceptance
and SPM of final draft SPM of report
Authors prepare final drafts Governments review the Working Group/Panel
of the report and SPM which final draft SPM in preparation approves SPMs and
are sent to governments for its approval accepts reports
Response of the North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Climatology to Global Warming:
Application of Dynamical Downscaling to CMIP5 Models
LEI ZHANG
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
Peer reviewed and internationally
available scientific technical and
KRISTOPHER B. KARNAUSKAS
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Publication
Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado
JEFFREY P. DONNELLY
Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
KERRY EMANUEL
socio-economic literature, manuscripts
Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
of report
(Manuscript received 6 July 2016, in final form 21 September 2016)
ABSTRACT
A downscaling approach is applied to future projection simulations from four CMIP5 global climate models
to investigate the response of the tropical cyclone (TC) climatology over the North Pacific basin to global
warming. Under the influence of the anthropogenic rise in greenhouse gases, TC-track density, power dis-
sipation, and TC genesis exhibit robust increasing trends over the North Pacific, especially over the central
subtropical Pacific region. The increase in North Pacific TCs is primarily manifested as increases in the intense
made available for IPCC review and
and relatively weak TCs. Examination of storm duration also reveals that TCs over the North Pacific have
longer lifetimes under global warming.
Through a genesis potential index, the mechanistic contributions of various physical climate factors to the
simulated change in TC genesis are explored. More frequent TC genesis under global warming is mostly
attributable to the smaller vertical wind shear and greater potential intensity (primarily due to higher sea
surface temperature). In contrast, the effect of the saturation deficit of the free troposphere tends to suppress
TC genesis, and the change in large-scale vorticity plays a negligible role.
1. Introduction Given the possible catastrophic impact of TCs on man-
selected non-peer reviewed literature
kind, the response of TC activity over the North Pacific
The North Pacific is an important region of relatively
basin to anthropogenic global warming is naturally of
frequent tropical cyclones (TCs) (;40 TCs per year).
great societal interest and has been intensively analyzed
The extreme rainfall and strong winds associated with
in numerous studies (Zhao and Held 2012; Emanue
TCs may influence shipping in the open ocean and cause
2013; Murakami et al. 2013; Knutson et al. 2015; Kossin
notable damage to coastal areas if TCs make landfall.
et al. 2016).
There are several approaches to investigating the re-
lationship between climate change and TCs. One rela-
Denotes content that is immediately available upon publica- tively straightforward approach is to analyze the future
tion as open access. projections of TC statistics as explicitly resolved within
produced by other relevant institutions
the global model simulations. The current generation of
Corresponding author e-mail: Lei Zhang, lezh8230@colorado. climate models has indeed been suggested to be capable
edu of simulating TCs (Zhao and Held 2010; Murakami et al
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0496.1
2017 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyrigh
Policy (http://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy).
© images: www.ipcc.ch/AC6copyright.pdf including industry
IPCC Secretariat
c/o World Meteorological Organization
7bis, Avenue de la Paix
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CH-1211 Geneva 2
Switzerland
Phone: +41 22 730 8208/54/84
Fax: +41 22 730 8025/13
Email: ipcc-sec@wmo.int
www.ipcc.ch October 2017
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