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THE WEEKLY UPDATE Want to sponsor this report?
WEEK 15, 2021 Click here
Market Update
1 ▪ A brutal weekend in the crypto market, as positions worth
almost $10 billion got liquidated in just 24 hours on Sunday.
Bitcoin topped out just below $65,000 on Wednesday but
dropped more than 20% from the top this weekend.
▪ The open interest in the bitcoin futures market denoted in
bitcoin soared above 430,000 BTC last week, but the weekend
crash caused a large decline. BTC: Liquidations Data
▪ Cumulative bitcoin returns by trading hours suggest that the $6,000m
2020-2021 rally has been driven by investors from the western
world (Europe and America).
$4,870m
$5,000m
Valuation $4,000m
2 ▪ After a few days above $60k, bitcoin is now back in the range
where it spent most of the past month. Is the trend shifting, or
are we just back to consolidation? $3,000m
▪ As the market crashed down on Sunday and liquidations
escalated, futures went into backwardation for the first time $2,000m $1,680m $1,638m
since the bloody days of March 2020. $1,510m
▪ On April 17th, $4.87 billion worth of BTC longs got liquidated
as bitcoin flashed down towards $50k. This is by far the largest $1,000m
value of daily long liquidations ever recorded in bitcoin.
Blockchain Activity $0m
3 ▪ The bitcoin hashrate declined sharply going into the weekend
-$1,000m $652m $614.4m $602.5m
$357.5m $474.21m
following an incident in a coal mine in Xinjiang, leading
transaction fees to skyrocket. 22 Sep 15 Oct 7 Nov 30 Nov 23 Dec 15 Jan 7 Feb 2 Mar 25 Mar 17 Apr
Source: Bybt
▪ In the last three months, North American bitcoin services have Longs Shorts
accumulated 35,000 BTC from Western European bitcoin
services and 13,000 BTC from Eastern Asian bitcoin services.
THE NEWSROOM
Bank of England and HM Treasury Here’s How Much Stock Coinbase’s Gary Gensler is now head of the SEC.
Launch Taskforce for UK CBDC Largest Shareholders Sold Last Week What comes next?
The Bank of England and HM Treasury have announced In a tweet that garnered several thousand retweets, one In the crypto world, Gary Gensler has been one of the
the launch of a taskforce to explore a potential U.K. spectator noted that Coinbase's management team most talked-about figures in government for many
central bank digital currency (CBDC). The U.K. central sold off the lion's share of their equity. But data months, despite the fact that he hasn’t formally been in
bank and government have not yet decided whether to compiled by The Block from filings with the Securities government at all yet. A moderate, Gensler is not likely
launch a CBDC, so will use the task force to explore the and Exchange Commission suggests that the firm's to cut down on the SEC’s work getting token issuers to
practicalities of doing so, according to an largest shareholders sold off just a fraction of their toe the line, but his interest in technology and financial
announcement Monday. The Bank of England stated shares in the firm over the course of April 14 and 15. data suggests serious interest in updating markets.
that a CBDC would not replace cash and bank deposits
but exist alongside them.
Apr 20, 2021 3
Market tops out with hefty liquidations
Bitcoin Correlation:
ETH XRP GOLD S&P500
90-day correlation
A brutal weekend in the crypto market, as positions worth almost $10 billion
(weekly change included)
▪
got liquidated in just 24 hours on Sunday. Bitcoin topped out just below BTC 0.767 0.023 0.267 0.042 0.094 0.038 0.181 0.044
$65,000 on Wednesday but dropped more than 20% from the top this
Source: CoinMetrics
weekend.
▪ As the market was heavily biased towards the upside with a euphoric futures
market, this flush of overleveraged traders have been a very healthy event to Top 3 by Market Cap: Percentage Change in Price Over the Last Week
balance the market. At one point on Sunday, BTC futures traded at an
approx. 40% annualized discount to spot, not seen since the bloody Thursday
of March 12th, 2020. More on this on page 14.
▪ Dogecoin is still making headlines this week and climbed into the top 5 this
week, after gaining almost 500% in a week. DOGE is up more than 7000%
this year and illustrates the state of the crypto market right now.
Best Performing Price Last week Last month YTD -2.3% $2,113
Dogecoin 0.419 468.30% 628.50% 7216%
VeChain 0.236 76.11% 152.60% 1135%
-9.5% $498.2
NEO 105.349 67.98% 155.50% 631%
-10.1% $54,856
Worst Performing Price Last week Last month YTD
Elrond 163.276 -26.46% 21.23% 548%
Stellar 0.488 -22.25% 22.90% 267%
Avalanche 25.401 -21.22% -21.79% 591%
Last week of top 50 by market capitalization
Source: cryptowat.ch, messari.io Source: NYDIG
Apr 20, 2021 4
Mid Caps ballooning last week
But is the altcoin trend turning?
Percentage of Total Market Capitalization
BTC ETH BCH LTC XRP DASH NEM XMR IOTA NEO
Market
53.85% 12.78% 0.84% 0.87% 3.03% 0.15% 0.17% 0.32% 0.28% 0.38%
Share
Weekly
Change*
-2.07% 0.51% 0.22% 0.02% -0.62% 0.02% -0.01% 0.04% 0.01% 0.16%
The Mid Caps Index ballooned last week, while Large Caps struggled. Is * Weekly change in percentage points
this a change in trend after some profitable months for altcoins, or is it Source: Coinpaprika.com
just a pullback and shift in focus among traders?
Monthly Performance of Market Capitalization Weighted Indexes
• The Mid Caps Index was only up 22% last Tuesday but closed yesterday at
72%. The Index has been skyrocketing thanks to DOGE, VET, and NEO,
among others, seeing incredible gains lately. 72%
• The Small Caps Index ended yesterday at a 28% gain and has not
managed to follow the trend of the Mid Caps Index.
• The Large Cap Index is now trending towards losses this month, getting
dragged down by bitcoin, which is down 5% so far in April
28%
• Bitcoin’s market share is still declining in this altcoin-focused market,
down another two percentage points this week.
2%
-5%
Source: NYDIG, Bletchleyindexes.com
Apr 20, 2021 5
Market sentiment stays high despite market turmoil
The Fear and Greed Index looks reasonably unaffected by the weekend pullback. The index now at 73, just slightly lower
than last week’s 74. While the sentiment has stabilized outside of the “Extreme Greed” area, there is still a significant risk
appetite, at least according to this indicator.
Fear & Greed Index
Extreme Greed
73
73
Now Last week Last month
Extreme Fear Greed (73) Greed (74) Greed (74)
Source: Alternative.me, NYDIG
Apr 20, 2021 6Fifth highest volume of 2021 as market crashes down
The bitcoin volume spikes again this week, as Sunday saw the fifth highest volume of 2021 when the market crashed down. Almost $18 billion changed hands on the leading spot
exchanges. The 7-day average real bitcoin volume* is now back above $10 billion and at the highest level since the beginning of March, as activity has picked up again.
16
Real BTC Daily Volume (7-day average)
14
12
Trading Volume ($ bn)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21
Source: Messari, Skew *as defined by Arcane Research. Read more here.
Apr 20, 2021 7Volatility climbing again
The short-term volatility is climbing again this month. Since the 7-day volatility bottomed out at the beginning of the month around 2%, we are now back above 3.5%. A few
days of substantial intraday action for bitcoin has taken the 7-day volatility back above the 30-day volatility.
20%
BTC-USD Volatility
Daily Return 30-Day Volatility 7-Day Volatility
15%
10%
5%
3.55%
3.01%
0%
-5%
-10%
Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21
Source: cryptowat.ch, Coinbase
Apr 20, 2021 8The western world has been the key driver of this bitcoin bull market
Cumulative bitcoin returns by trading hours suggest that the 2020-2021 rally
has been driven by investors from the western world (Europe and America). Bitcoin Returns – North America, Europe, Asia Hours
300%
▪ In January, NYDIG Research published an excellent research piece on the geographic
drivers of bitcoin returns. The report analyzed bitcoin’s cumulative returns by dividing
the day into three trading sessions: North America (9 am – 5 pm ET), Asia (5 pm – 1 am 250% 2021
ET), Europe (1 am – 9 am ET).
▪ The piece clearly illustrated the historical importance of the Asian market during bitcoin 200%
rallies. Additionally, the piece highlighted that since 2020, the western world has been
the definite driver of the bitcoin bull market.
150%
▪ In 2020, bitcoin saw most of its returns during the North American and European
trading hours, with North American trading hours seeing the large cumulative gains of
132% (since Jan 1st, 2020).
100%
▪ In 2021, European trading hours have seemingly been a more important driver of the
bitcoin returns. From Jan 1st, 2020, till April 19th, 2021, European trading hours have
50%
seen 254% in cumulative returns, while American trading hours have seen 162% in
cumulative returns. This could be a result of a European overlap in trading hours with
both Asian evenings and American pre-market hours.
0%
▪ Asian trading hours, on the other hand, are contributing in the opposite direction. From
Jan 1st, 2020, till April 19th, 2021, Asian trading hours have had a negative cumulative
return of 15%! -50%
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21
▪ The bitcoin returns clearly suggest that Europe and America is the key driver of this
bitcoin rally, and as we show on slide 20, North American entities have accumulated a Asia Europe North America
sizeable chunk of the bitcoin supply since January 2020.
Source: NYDIG Data
Apr 20, 2021 9The weekend crash caused a sharp decline in the open interest in the bitcoin futures
The open interest (OI) in the bitcoin futures market denoted in bitcoin
soared above 430,000 BTC last week, but the weekend crash caused a Bitcoin Futures: Total open interest (BTC) vs BTCUSD (log)
large decline. We argue that contextualizing the open interest in terms ₿ 550,000
of the underlying may shed light on the relative extent of leverage in the
market.
▪ The OI denoted in bitcoin has pushed above 400,000 BTC throughout April for
the first time since the summer of 2020. ₿ 500,000
▪ Last week, the OI denominated in bitcoin peaked at 430,000 BTC. The cataclysmic $40,000
crash this weekend resulted in a sharp decline in the open interest, which
declined to 392,000 BTC by EOD Sunday.
₿ 450,000
▪ Measuring the open interest in terms of bitcoin is not the norm. Usually, the OI is
measured in dollars, but we argue that OI denoted in bitcoin could be value-
adding in terms of understanding whether the market is turning over-extended.
₿ 400,000
▪ When denoting OI in BTC, we contextualize how much of the actual supply is
affiliated with leveraged trades. Given bitcoin’s very strong performance over the OI, Apr 18th:
last year, it is natural that the open interest has increased in dollar terms. We 392k BTC
clearly see that the OI has not grown at the same rate in BTC terms until the end
of March, when the OI measured in BTC climbed from 350,000 BTC to 430,000 ₿ 350,000
BTC.
▪ Given that OI is a result of both longs and shorts, the OI alone is not a suitable
indicator to make assumptions on the state of the market.
₿ 300,000
▪ However, when combined with more indicators, we can make assumptions on
which direction the market is leveraged towards. With the huge futures premiums
we’ve seen and the high funding rate lately, it was fair to assume that the market
was geared towards further upside. $4,000
₿ 250,000
▪ In hindsight, following the weekend crash, the degree of leverage towards the Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21
upside becomes evident. Analyzing the OI in BTC terms might be useful in the
future to determine when it’s reasonable to take some chips off the table. Source: Skew, TradingView
Apr 20, 2021 10Coinbase’s first week of trading on Nasdaq
The direct listing of Coinbase on Nasdaq took place last week, and while the
first few hours saw huge volatility, the price has later stabilized at around First week of trading: Coinbase COIN
$330 per share. $420
▪ Coinbase was listed on Nasdaq on Wednesday under the ticker COIN.
$400
▪ Coinbase began trading at $381 per share and reached an intraday high of
$429.54 before closing the day trading at $328.28 on Wednesday.
$380
▪ For the two remaining trading days of the week, Coinbase stabilized at around
$330 per share, and it closed its first week of trading at $342, giving Coinbase a
market cap of $63.6 billion.
$360
▪ During the first day of trading, Coinbase’s management team sold off
considerable amounts of equity. This is usual in direct listings, where the
existing shareholders ensure the supply of shares available in the book $340
building.
▪ According to The Block, CEO Brian Armstrong sold 1.5% of his shares, while $320
CFO Alesia Haas sold 15% of her total holdings.
▪ COO Emilie Choi and CAO Jennifer Jones sold the most shares in percentage $300
terms selling 24% (Choi) and 38% (Jones), respectively. 14 Apr, 13:30 15 Apr, 9:30 15 Apr, 13:30 16 Apr, 10:30 16 Apr, 14:30
Source: Tradingview, Nasdaq
Apr 20, 2021 11VALUATION
What’s next for bitcoin?
After a few days above $60k, bitcoin is
Bitcoin / U. S. Dollar, 4H, Coinbase
now back in the range where it spent a lot
of time over the past month. Is the trend
turning, or are we just back to
consolidation?
▪ Bitcoin dropped all the way down to the
$51k area on Sunday, but recovered
quickly. The first resistance is now around
$58k.
▪ Climbing above this level and retaking
the $60k level would be a bullish signal
and potentially take us towards the ATH
again.
▪ The lower $50k area should be a fairly
strong support level. This area was
resistance both in late February and early
March, but acted as support in late
March and this weekend.
▪ Losing $50k would be short-term bearish
and could potentially take us down to the
$45k area.
Source: Tradingview, Coinbase
Apr 20, 2021 13Bitcoin futures in backwardations as market panics
BTC Futures Annualized Rolling 3-Month Basis
60%
The sentiment in the futures market has changed
drastically over the past week. As the market crashed
down on Sunday and liquidations escalated, futures went 50%
into backwardation for the first time since the bloody
days of March 2020. 40%
▪ During the most turbulent hours on Sunday, the 30%
annualized 3-month basis dropped close to -40% on
some platforms. 20%
▪ However, and very different from last time this happened, 10%
the basis jumped back in contango quickly. A healthy flush
of overleveraged traders and the futures premiums are 0%
now half of what was seen last week.
-10%
▪ There is still a significant gap between CME and the retail-
focused platforms. These offshore platforms are now
-20%
seeing an annualized premium just above 20% on the 3-
months contract, while CME is closer to 10%.
-30%
▪ We have been highlighting the danger of this euphoric
-40%
futures market over the past month, and traders without
proper risk management were punished hard this
weekend. -50%
28 Feb 4 Mar 8 Mar 12 Mar 16 Mar 20 Mar 24 Mar 28 Mar 1 Apr 5 Apr 9 Apr 13 Apr 17 Apr
FTX BitMEX Deribit Binance CME*
Source: Skew.com *Closed Saturday - Sunday
Apr 20, 2021 14Funding rate reset
The weekend dump led funding rates to fall heavily, and for a
period, the funding rates were substantially negative before BTC Price vs Funding Rates
turning neutral.
▪ The weekend crash in bitcoin caused funding rates to decline as
an incredible $4.8 billion worth of overleveraged longs got
liquidated (see the next slide).
▪ Prior to the crash, the funding rates had been very high
throughout April, peaking above 0.16% on April 10th.
▪ The funding rates later declined, first to around 0.08% before
declining further towards 0.04% as bitcoin drifted down from its
peak towards $60,000.
▪ Once the $60,000 support was broken, a massive sell-off
occurred, leading to a cascade of liquidations of over-leveraged
longs.
▪ The massive sell-off on Saturday led the funding rates to decline
further. The funding rates declined far into the negative territory,
with the average funding rates reaching -0.045% as the
sentiment among traders quickly shifted from absolute euphoria
to agonizing panic.
▪ During this bitcoin rally, negative funding rates have usually
been a great entry point. However, with the extreme events in
the market this weekend it makes sense being extra cautious – Source: NYDIG Data
at least when it comes to leveraged plays.
Apr 20, 2021 15$4.9 billion worth of longs liquidated on Saturday
On April 17th, $4.9 billion worth of BTC longs got liquidated as BTC: Liquidations Data
bitcoin flashed down towards $50k. This is by far the largest value of
daily long liquidations ever recorded. $6,000m
▪ The $4.87 billion worth of liquidated longs is the largest long $4,870m
$5,000m
liquidation volume ever recorded and is bigger than the three largest
long liquidation days combined.
$4,000m
To put the astronomical $4.87 billion liquidation into further context:
The $4.87 billion worth of long liquidations is larger than the total value of $3,000m
all long liquidations in October and November combined. In the flash of
one dreadful and violent correction, more longs were liquidated than in the
span of two entire months!
$2,000m $1,680m $1,638m
$1,510m
▪ Amid the volatility, longs were not alone in suffering. A total of $474
million worth of shorts were liquidated as well. In other words, a total $1,000m
of $5.3 billion worth of leveraged trades got liquidated on Saturday,
highlighting the absurd amount of leverage and risk appetite in the
market right now.
$0m
$357.5m
▪ Hopefully, this was a proper wakeup call for all the extreme risk- $474.21m
$652m
takers, with this remarkable liquidation day enabling the market to -$1,000m $614.4m $602.5m
evolve in a more substantial manner onwards. 22 Sep 15 Oct 7 Nov 30 Nov 23 Dec 15 Jan 7 Feb 2 Mar 25 Mar 17 Apr
Source: Bybt Longs Shorts
▪ We once again repeat ourselves with this message, but it is important.
Avoid the intense FOMO. Stack sats and be conservative with the
leverage. As in Aesop’s fables, the tortoise ended up beating the hare.
Slow and steady wins the race. Be smart, not greedy.
Apr 20, 2021 16BLOCKCHAIN ACTIVITY
Bitcoin on-chain summary: Hashrate decline causes fees to skyrocket
It’s been an eventful week on-chain, with a significant decline in
hashrate causing transaction fees to surge.
▪ A coal mine incident in Xianjing caused the hashrate to plummet (see
next slide).
▪ This has caused the block creation to decline substantially, with the
average rate of blocks created per hour over the last week sitting at
5.14, far below the normal rate of 6.
▪ The slower block creation rate has caused transaction fees to rise.
The average daily transaction fee grew by nearly 75% this week, from
$5.5 million to $9.6 million.
▪ With the rising transaction fees and the declining revenue from block
subsidies, transaction fees over the last week contributed to 17% of
the miner revenue.
▪ With median transaction fees hitting $50, the average transaction
value has climbed by 26%, which makes sense as smaller transactions
become less attractive with growing fees.
Source: Bytetree
Apr 20, 2021 18Sharp decline in hashrate following coal mine incident in Xinjiang
The bitcoin hashrate declined sharply in two days following an incident in a coal
mine in Xinjiang, leading fees to skyrocket.
Bitcoin hashrate
▪ From Thursday to Saturday, the bitcoin hashrate declined from 198 exahashes per second to
April 15th:
107 exahashes per second, a 46% decline in two days.
198 EH/s
200
▪ We emphasize that these data are prone to some daily inaccuracies due to the method used to
estimate the hashrate. Reported numbers from the various mining pools suggest that the
hashrate decline was a less severe, yet still significant, 20%. 180
The key drivers to this decline are issues in several coal mines in China, most notably in the 160
Exahashes per second
▪
Xinjiang province. This is a region that historically has attracted a lot of hashrate during the dry
season in China.
140
▪ The timing of the Xinjiang incident could not be worse. The decline occurred only a few hours
after bitcoin’s difficulty was adjusted to new highs. 120
April 17th:
▪ An interesting side note following this incident is that the dominance of Chinese miners in 100 107 EH/s
bitcoin has seemingly declined, as Mustafa Yilham of Bixin Group pointed out in this Twitter-
thread.
80
▪ The decline in hashrate carried some short-term consequences. Far fewer blocks have been
created over the last few days, leading to slower transactions and higher fees. 60
Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21
▪ As bitcoin saw a violent correction last week, the demand for on-chain transactions also rose EH/s 7 day average
with traders seeking arbitrage opportunities across exchanges. Thus, fees climbed further, and
from Sunday, April 11th to Sunday, April 17th, the average transaction fee has risen from $14.90
Source: Glassnode
to $44.07.
Apr 20, 2021 19The Regional Flows of Bitcoin
North American Bitcoin Services are accumulating bitcoin from both Europe and Asia
Regional Flows of bitcoin
In the last three months, North American bitcoin services have
accumulated 35,000 BTC from Western European bitcoin From Eastern Asia to From North America to
services and 13,000 BTC from Eastern Asian bitcoin services.
₿ 80,000 ₿ 70,000
₿ 60,000
▪ Chainalysis has identified geographic locations of various ₿ 60,000
bitcoin services – and the data indicates that American entities ₿ 21,343 ₿ 50,000
₿ 24,611 ₿ 23,076
₿ 24,765
have accumulated a lot of bitcoin in this entire market cycle. ₿ 40,000
₿ 40,000 ₿ 24,198
₿ 18,022
₿ 30,000
₿ 20,000 ₿ 44,283 ₿ 20,000
₿ 32,990 ₿ 33,753
▪ From mid-March 2020 till the end of 2020, American entities ₿ 28,647
₿ 35,308 ₿ 7,618
₿ 10,000
₿ 27,528 ₿ 4,997
had a net inflow of approximately 700,000 BTC according to ₿ 11,215 ₿ 12,140
₿0 ₿0
Chainalysis.
January February March April January February March April
North America Western Europe Rest of the world Eastern Asia Western Europe Rest of the World
▪ The trend has continued in 2021. We see that North American
bitcoin services have seen a net inflow of nearly 50,000 BTC
from Western European and Eastern Asian entities this period.
From Western Europe to Net North American Inflow (last 3 months)
₿ 80,000
▪ North American services have accumulated more than 35,000
BTC from Western European services in the last three months,
₿ 60,000
and more than 13,000 BTC from Eastern Asian services. ₿ 23,233 From Western Europe ₿ 35,487
₿ 16,648
₿ 40,000
₿ 17,033
▪ We clearly see that Northern American entities is
strengthening its grip on bitcoin. While stories of the Chinese ₿ 20,000 ₿ 37,457 ₿ 41,998
₿ 26,227
bitcoin dominance is once again spreading like wildfire in the ₿ 6,414
From Eastern Asia ₿ 13,041
₿ 6,688
media, on-chain data suggest that the pendulum is moving ₿0
towards America. January February March April
North America Eastern Asia Rest of the World
₿0 ₿ 15,000 ₿ 30,000
Source: Chainalysis
Apr 20, 2021 20Are you looking for exclusive research or analysis?
Visit us at research.arcane.no
Apr 20, 2021 21Disclaimer
• The Weekly Update (the “Report”) by Arcane Research is a report focusing on cryptocurrencies, open blockchains and fintech. Information published in the Report aims to spread knowledge and summarise developments in
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• The information contained in this Report, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an
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• This Report shall not constitute and should not be construed as financial advice, a recommendation for entering into financial transactions/investments, or investment advice, or as a recommendation to engage in investment
transactions. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital asset before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments.
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